groundwater monitoring & modeling · groundwater monitoring and modeling • data + modeling...
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MEETING THE NATION'S NEED FOR WATER-QUALITY INFORMATION IN THE NEXT
DECADE: PLANNED CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE NAWQA PROGRAM
GROUNDWATER MONITORING & MODELING
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GROUNDWATER MONITORING & MODELING
OBJECTIVES
• Assess the quality of groundwater used for domestic
and public supply
• Assess the impact of legacy contamination on the
quality of surface water
• Assess changes in groundwater quality
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GROUNDWATER MONITORING & MODELING
APPROACH
• Monitoring of groundwater in new and existing
NAWQA networks
monitoring wells, domestic wells, public supply wells
• Modeling at multiple scales
statistical, flow & transport, hybrid
National, Principal Aquifers, Regional, Local
• Time series sampling in selected networkscontinuous monitoring and periodic sampling
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Land use, 100-1000 km2
monitoring wells<10 m
GROUND WATER RESOURCE: 82% PUBLIC SUPPLY, 18% DOMESTIC
GROUNDWATER MONITORING & MODELING
SCALE
MAS, 1000-10,000 km2
Domestic wells20 – 50 m
PA, 10,000-100,000 km2
public supply wells50 – 200 m
Flow path studies, multi-scale
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• 24 Principal Aquifers
– ~ 2880 public supply wells
– Multi-scale models: 16 PAs
• 42 Major Aquifer & 52 Land UseStudies (~2820 wells)
• 40 Flow Path Studies(~800 wells)
• Time Series Sampling
– 20 networks @ 5 wells ea
– ~3300 samples
• Finished water sampling
– ~ 400 samples
• Full analytical schedule
• ~12,000 groundwater samples
GROUNDWATER MONITORING & MODELING
SCIENCE PLAN CURRENT FUNDING
• 16 Principal Aquifers
– ~ 1440 public supply wells
– Multi-scale models: 4 PAs
• 39 Major Aquifer & 47 Land UseStudies (~2580 wells)
• 8 Flow Path Studies(~160 wells)
• Time Series Sampling
– 8 networks @ 3 wells ea
– ~640 samples
• Finished water sampling
– none
• Targeted analytical schedule
• ~5,000 groundwater samples
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PRINICIPAL AQUIFERS ARE THE PRIMARY ORGANIZATIONAL UNIT
20 PRINICIPAL AQUIFERS ACCOUNT FOR 90% OF PUMPING FOR PUBLIC SUPPLY
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NITRATE , “PUBLIC SUPPLY AQUIFER”
3% 10%
87%5%
17%
78%
7%
16%
77%
SacramentoValley
San JoaquinValley
TulareBasin
ASSESS QUALITY OF GROUND WATER USED FORDOMESTIC AND PUBLIC SUPPLY
High
Moderate
Low
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ASSESS QUALITY OF GROUND WATER USED FORDOMESTIC AND PUBLIC SUPPLY
NITRATE CONCENTRATIONS IN SHALLOW GROUNDWATER
(Nolan and Hitt, 2006)
WHAT IS THE DISTRIBUTION OF NITRATE IN GROUNDWATERUSED FOR PUBLIC SUPPLY?
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Orange – upward flowsGreen & yellow – downward flow
FLUX AT 50 FOOT DEPTH
FLOW MODELS PROVIDE INPUT FOR STATISTICAL MODELS
STATISTICAL MODELS ARE IMPROVED IF DATA FROM FLOW MODELS IS INCORPORATED
Faunt, writtencommunication
Nolan, written communication
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ASSESS THE IMPACT OF LEGACY CONTAMINATION ON STREAMSREGIONAL SCALE FLOW MODELS PROVIDE ESTIMATES OF ARRIVAL TIME DISTIBUTIONS TO STREAMS
Sanford, writtencommunication
MODELS + DATAFPS / IWS
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KEY OUTCOMES FOR ALL GW MODELING STUDIES
• Use models to identify factors that have explanatory power for mapping
groundwater quality
• Explanatory factors (ideally) should be identifiable in the absence of
quantitative groundwater flow (& transport) models
• What are the surficial/landscape surrogates for the explanatory factors?
• Develop maps at regional, Principal Aquifer, & National scales
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Detection of trends requires sufficient number of sample pairs
STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGESIN CHLORIDE, DECADAL SAMPLING
ASSESS CHANGES IN GROUNDWATER QUALITY
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GROUNDWATER MONITORING AND MODELING
• Data + modeling will be used to map the quality of groundwater at
the depth zone used for domestic supply and the depth zone used
for public supply
• Data + modeling will be used to assess impacts of legacy
contamination on streams Integrated Watershed Studies
• Data + models will be used to assess changes in groundwater
quality with time
• Models will be used to forecast groundwater quality under
different scenarios of projected change in driving forces
Forecasting
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GROUNDWATER MONITORING AND MODELINGQUESTIONS?