grid current situation in the arab region

Economic And Social Commission For Western Asia

25-29 April 2016-Euro Arab Foundation for High Studies-Granada/Spain

EURO ARAB TRAINING COURSE:SMART GRID & INTEGRATION OF RE.

Grid Current Situation in the Arab Region:

Opportunities, Constraints &Challenges with RE.

ESCWA Consultant

Dr. Eng. Walid Al DEGHAILI

[email protected]

© Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission

Table of Contents

1- Current Situation in Arab Electricity Sector

2- Arab Electricity Generation from RE: Opportunities

3- Arab Electricity Generation from RE: Constraints and Challenges

4-Conclusions

1- Current Situation in Arab Electricity

Sector


Arab Grids Data

@Rural Electrification needs: in Yemen(only 52% of population has

access to grid)), Sudan(31%), Mauritania…

@Deficit in generation in Arab Countries: Lebanon, Irak(importing

7785 GWh in 2014 ), Palestine (importing 4670 GWh in 2014), and

Morroco is importing 6138 GWh….

@Damages in grids: Irak, Yemen, Syria, Libya

@Total installed Capacity: 247 GW

@Electricity generation: Thermal more than 94%(capacity)

96% (Energy)

Efficiency :30%-40%

@Transmission losses: more than European averages, up to 8%in Irak

@Distribution losses: more than European averages, up to 30% Syria

@Average of Efficiency for the total electricity system: 31%.

Load Factors and Capacity Factors 2014


Peak Demand Hours in Arab Countries


Load Curves in Egypt 2013/2014

Evening peak Demand

August -

Evening

MW


Energy Mix for Arab Electricity Generation

oil 36.5 + NG 57.5

Hydro3%Coal2% RE1%


CSP+Combined Cycle


CPV

Shams 1 : First Solar Collector/CSP


Direct Radiation


Kaawa Village in Yemen: Stand alone

Systems, but there is a potential for mini

grids….Hybrid Systems…


Arab Fund AFESD : as a Development Fund, the main

source of financing in Arab Countries

(Source: AFESD – Dr M.Farhat PPP/ MENAREC 6 – 2016)

From 1972 -2012: Less than 5% of the value of the loans extended to generation projects were allocated to Renewal Energy projects (hydro power plants).

Over the Last Four Year: Around 45% of the value of the loansextended to generation projects were allocated to RenewalEnergy projects (wind and solar).

Recently, AFESD started providing finance for private sectordevelopment projects in the Arab countries.

During the period 1974-2016, around 33% of the total amount of loans

provided by AFESD are for Elec./ and 22% for gen.(6.2 Billion $)


Financing from AFESD

Egypt: AFESD provided a grant to finance a study to determine the best location to

construct R.E. projects.

Mauritania: Financing 30 MW PV ( Other 15 MW from UAE)

Yemen: AFESD provided a $ 65 Million loan to the Government of Yemen to construct

a 60 MW wind farm in Mocha area (project co-financed by World Bank, Saudi Fund

and OPEC Fund)


Interconnections

? Iran

? Georgia

400 MW

Lebanon 250 MW Syria 300 MW Iraq

2312 MW 9344 MW 16952 MW

Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya 300 MW Jordan

6369 MW 11390 MW 4022 MW 8907 MW 3505 MW

Palestine

140 MW Yemen

1520 MW

Kuwait

14703 MW

Kinya

Jibouti

Borondi Egypt KSA Qatar

Somalia 51149 MW 750 MW 8761 MW

GCC

Aughanda 600 MW Bahrain

Sudan UAE 2777 MW

Tanzania Rawanda 2723 MW 26142 MW

Congo

Oman3940 MW

UCTE

300

MW

300

MW

Spain

1200 MW

3000 MW

Groups of interconnected networks in the neighboring and ESCWA region

Grece

BulgariaEurope

2 x

700

MW

Nile East Countries

Turkey

COMELEC

East Africa

Ethiopia

480

MW

900 MW

400 MW

Expected

ENTSO.


Interconnections

@ 3 Groups of interconnected grids : GCC, the 8

Countries( 7Arab Countries+ Turkey), and Maghreb

@ 3000 MW interconnection between KSA(GCC 53-

55%) and Egypt (13-16%)


Arab Electricity Sector Potential

@Increasing in population

@Improvement in Social welfare, and Economic

Development

@Air Conditioning/ global warming

@Desalination/ Water Scarcity

@Subsidized electricity Tariffs, Electricity is more

competitive for end user consumer( what about tariffs

policy as a tool to manage demand???)

@Electricity use for Transport Sector


Water Scarcity in the Arab Region


What about the future???

@Previsions: 2011/2020 +115%

2014/2025 +114%

2015/2030 +222%

@Electricity sector needs in investment: for new installations and to replace/renew

the third of the existing …. Public Private Partnership is needed..

@Tariffs are subsidized in most of the countries

@National Institutions: Public Private Partnership??, Ministries, Electricity Utilities,

monopolies. Restructuring, Privatization, Regulators,

@Regional Institutions: LAS/AMCE- UAE- UNESCWA- RCREEE: efforts from all are

needed

……

2030+5%

2025+5.5%

2020+6%

2014

2508 000 GWh 1965 000 GWh 1503 000 GWh 1060 000 GWh

2- Arab Electricity Generation

from RE: Opportunities


Arab Strategy For RE Use

@Since 2011, there are declarations, % of

total capacity, % for generated electricity,

projects….

@ It is estimated to be with 12% (2020),

18%(2025) and 24% (2030), as an generated

electricity from RE.


Advantages

-Emissions reduction and climate change mitigation (international

policies on climate change,Paris Accord, negotiations)

-Fuel saving

- Pollution reduction

- Low operation and maintenance costs in power plants for

electricity generation,

- The total cost for the production of KWh is stable and far from

the effects of future inflations

- Security of electricity supply because it does not require fuel

import and it is not exposed to the risks of depletion.

-Exporting Electricity in the future, electricity revenues…


Arab Opportunities

@Producing Electricity from Solar Energy during the

peak demand hours in GCC Countries

@@With an Arab Interconnected grid , Electricity from

Solar Energy is available between the sunrise in Oman

and the sunset in Morocco ( 4 additional hours)

@@@With an Arab interconnected grid the

simultaneous absence of wind energy is less probable


Electricity Cost from RE


Arab Opportunities

@Producing electricity from wind and solar energy

came into commercial use since several years.

@ Coupling Wind Turbines with Hydro pumping

stations with storage, to generate electricity during

peak hours.


Direct radiation and CPV

3- Arab Electricity Generation

from RE: Constraints and

Challenges


Static & Dynamic Reserve

Total Power / Capacity to be installed = Peak Power + Static

Reserve + Dynamic /Spin Reserve + Exchanged Power

Capacity of the biggest conventional unit/ Farm wind

Policy on Interconnections

Installation of wind turbines can not reduce the total requested capacity of the conventional power plants/ the same with solar power plant when peak demand hours are in the evening.

It is necessary to increase the spin reserve to take into consideration the wind turbines.


Load’s effect on efficiency and fuel consumption

GENERAL ELECTRIC MODEL PG654 1 (B) GAS TURBINE

ESTIMATED

PERFORMANCE - CONFIGURATION: NATURAL GAS

Compressor Inlet Conditions59F (15.0 C), 60 ٪Rel. Humidity

Atmospheric Pressure 14.7 bar)

DESIGN OUTPUT KW 38340

3

2

Economic & Financial Factors

Cost of KWh = Cost of investment 400 – 1000 US $ / KW (annuity x capital /annual energy production) Example: 1000$/KW 25 years 7000 h/year

1000$/KW 25 years 4000 h/year

+Cost of fuel (ST: 225 – 300 g HFO/ GT: 250-300g DO/ CC: 150-200 DO)

Example: HFO 600 $/T DO 1000 $/T

+Cost O & M

@Electricity generation from RE can increase the investment cost of KWh generated in conventional thermal power plant

4% 8% 12%

Annuity 0.064 0.0936 0.127

Inv. Cost c$ KWh 0.91 1.34 1.81

Inv.Cost c$/KWh 1,6 2.34 3.175


Problems??

@Storage

@What about Technical Rules for Grid Connection ?

@What about harmonics ?

@Priority for Electricity from RE

@Centralization and Decentralization,

@Producer/Consumer…Generation connected to LV &

MV networks…Smart Grids……

@Nominal Capacity, Peak capacity, Energy and

Capacity… ,reserve, temperature, cooling, cleaning,

@water availability for cooling and for washing……


Efficiency & Temperature


Without Cooling & With Cooling

Humidity


Output Power & Dust

dust

4-Conclusions


Conclusions

@Good governance.

@Importance / necessity of the legislation(stable) ,

Institutional reform, restructuring, codes ,…

@Need for an elaborated energy policy supported by a

Public Private Partnership ,with legal road map.

@Need to encourage private producers

@Need to implement and to promote special tariffs .

@Need to Smart Grids

@An Arab Interconnected Grid, with Electricity Market is

needed


Conclusions

@-Preparing master plan for Electricity generation including RE use

@-Capacity Building, technology transfer and R&D with adaptation to local conditions.

@-Financial mechanisms, Good environment for investment, and Public Private Partnership.

@EE in Using RE

@-Statistics, reporting, transparency

@-Arab regional cooperation, South-North Collaboration , Electricity Market, Interconnections…

Economic And Social Commission For Western Asia

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