green infrastructure for disaster resilience: exploring
TRANSCRIPT
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Green Infrastructure for Disaster Resilience: Exploring Connections with Scenario PlanningThomas Hilde
Levin Research Day
24 August 2017
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Problem: Limited connection between disaster resilience and green infrastructure planning
Hazard Mitigation Green Infrastructure
Emergency Management Land Use & Environmental Planning
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Green Infrastructure: Growing importance in community planning
“interconnected network of natural areas and other open spaces that conserves natural ecosystem values and functions, sustains clean air and water, and provides a wide array of benefits to people and wildlife.”
“ecological framework for environmental, social, and economic health – in short, our natural life-support system.”
- Benedict & McMahon (2012)
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Dis
aste
r R
esili
ence
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Dissertation objective
Draw a stronger connection between green infrastructure and disaster resilience in community planning using innovative scenario-based planning techniques and integrated planning support tools
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Scenario Planning:The state of the art in sustainable community planning
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Planning Support Systems: Modeling urbanization & impacts
Geographic Information Systems
Urbanization Scenarios & Sustainability Outcomes
Hazard Scenarios & Disaster Impacts
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Case Study: Austin, TexasThe heart of flash flood alley
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Embedded Units of Analysis:Onion Creek and Gilleland Creek
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Onion Creek
“100 year” flood events in 1998, 2001, 2013, 2015
$175 M in housing buyouts over the past 15 years
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GillelandCreek:In the context of Planned Unit Developments (PUDs)
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Historical Counterfactual Scenarios
RQ1. Examined retrospectively, can revisiting past disasters help demonstrate missed opportunities for improving resilience through green infrastructure planning approaches?
Envision Tomorrow Hazus
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Exploratory Scenarios
RQ2. Examined prospectively, can modeling plausible future disasters help inform long-term green infrastructure planning approaches for community resilience?
Envision Tomorrow Hazus
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Semi-Structured Interviews:Supporting the scenario-based analysis with qualitative information
Discipline/Role Sector Planning Information
1 Developer/Builder Private Consumer
2 Watershed Planner Public Producer/Consumer
3 Environmental Program Manager Public Producer/Consumer
4 Environmental Planner Private Producer/Consumer
5 Sustainability Director Public Producer/Consumer
6 GIS Practitioner Private Producer/Consumer
7 Urban Forester Public Consumer/Producer
8 Landscape Architect Private Consumer
9 Parks Fundraiser Non-Profit Consumer
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ET-HazusCrosswalk, part 1:Translating from Aggregate to Building-Level Point Data
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ET-HazusCrosswalk, part 2: Translating ET outputs into Hazusinputs
Development Type OccupancyNumStories
FoundationType
FirstFloorHt
BldgType BldgValue*DesignL
evelArea**
Onion Creek Single Family RES1 1 7 WOOD 224 3 3
Onion Creek Mobile Home RES2 1 7MANUFHO
USING71 3 2
Onion Creek Duplex RES3A 2 7 WOOD 311 3 4
Onion Creek Large Lot SF RES1 1 7 WOOD 335 3 5
Onion Creek Quadplex RES3B 2 7 WOOD 735 3 6
Onion Creek Apartment/Condo RES3D 3 7 WOOD 2,271 3 19
Onion Creek Large Format Retail COM1 1 7 STEEL 3,248 3 29
Onion Creek Low Rise Office COM4 1 7 STEEL 16,693 3 71
Onion Creek Industrial IND2 1 7 STEEL 6,464 3 60
Onion Creek Civic and Education GOV1 1 7 MASONRY 16,457 3 88
Whisper Valley SFD-Low RES1 2 7 WOOD 222 3 3
Whisper Valley SFD-Med RES1 1 7 WOOD 162 3 2
Whisper Valley SFD-High RES1 2 7 WOOD 149 3 2
Whisper Valley Townhomes RES3D 2 7 WOOD 1,470 3 15
Whisper Valley Apartments RES3D 2 7 WOOD 2,852 3 24
Lifestyle Retail COM1 1 7 WOOD 2,672 3 18
T4MS Main Street COM1 3 7 WOOD 3,312 3 19
Low Rise Office COM4 1 7 WOOD 4,856 3 21
Office 3:1 FAR COM4 5 7 STEEL 17,293 3 111
Retail 2:1 FAR COM1 3 7 WOOD 6,764 3 39
Elevated SFD-Med RES1 2 1 10 WOOD 341 3 5Elevated SFD-High RES1 2 1 10 WOOD 192 3 3Elevated Townhomes RES3C 2 1 10 WOOD 1,437 3 18Elevated Apartments RES3D 2 1 10 STEEL 2,871 3 32
*replacement cost in
thousands
**Sq Ft in thousand
s
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Results
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Onion Creek:‘As Built’ Baseline Scenario
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Onion Creek:Green Infrastructure Network Scenario
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Onion Creek:Flood Impacts
Indicator As BuiltStructural Mitigation
Riparian Conservation
GI Network
Total Buildings 14,309 +4% -11% -22%
Buildings Damaged 2,140 -31% -78% -96%
Average Building Damage % 60% -33% -31% -57%
Average Content Damage % 63% -47% -27% -51%
Total Building Loss $344M -38% -85% -92%
Total Content Loss $241M -51% -86% -93%
Total Inventory Loss $27M -35% -68% -94%
Total Losses $613M -42% -85% -92%
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Onion Creek:SelectSustainability Outcomes
Indicator As BuiltStructural Mitigation
Riparian Conservation
GI Network
Parkland & Open Space Acres per 1,000 residents
69 - +95% +191%
New Impervious Acres 3,194 -1% -14% -29%Average Owner Size (SqFt) 2,518 -5% -12% -28%Annual Household Income Needed to Afford Housing
$62,500 +4% -3% -11%
Jobs-to-Housing Ratio 0.91 -1% +1% +4%Improvement Value per SqFt $98 +5% +8% +38%Property Tax Revenue ($/year) per acre
$3,680 +6% +23% +34%
Sales Tax Revenue ($/year) per acre $1,050 +3% +108% +81%Parking Spaces 106,820 +2% -9% -9%Parking Cost $600M +27% -9% -15%
New Road Cost $793M -2% -18% -43%
Building Carbon Emissions (Tons/Yr) 17 -1% -6% -14%
Landscaping Water Use (G/Day) 241 -8% -22% -52%Per Housing Unit Residential VMT 24 +0.1% -3% -6%
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GillelandCreek:‘As Planned’ Baseline Scenario
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Gilleland Creek:Green Infrastructure Network Scenario
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Gilleland Creek:Flood Impacts
Indicator As PlannedStructural Mitigation
Riparian Conservation
GI Network
100-year Flood
Total Buildings 7,996 - +5% -23%
Buildings Damaged 21 -67% -86% -100%
Average Building Damage % 17.7% +2% -14% -100%
Average Content Damage % 21.4% +6% -14% -100%
Total Building Loss $2.1M -25% -96% -100%
Total Content Loss $2.6M -12% -98% -100%
Total Losses $4.7M -18% -97% -100%
500-year Flood
Total Buildings 7,996 - +5% -23%
Buildings Damaged 32 -63% -91% -100%
Average Building Damage % 18.0% -1% +37% -100%
Average Content Damage % 22.1% -2% +27% -100%
Total Building Loss $3.2M -24% -96% -100%
Total Content Loss $4.0M -12% -98% -100%
Total Losses $7.2M -17% -97% -100%
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Gilleland Creek:Select Sustainability Outcomes
IndicatorAs
PlannedStructural Mitigation
Riparian Conservation
GI Network
Parkland & Open Space Acres per 1,000 residents
111 -1% 39% 102%
New Impervious Acres 1,361 - -6% -22%Average Owner Size (SqFt) 1,788 -1% -4% -16%Annual Household Income Needed to Afford Housing
$58,440 - -3% -7%
Jobs-to-Housing Ratio 0.68 -1% - -1%Improvement Value per SqFt $122 - 1% 7%Property Tax Revenue ($/year) per acre
$7,810 1% 8% 36%
Sales Tax Revenue ($/year) per acre $5,960 - 12% 43%
Parking Spaces 53,550 1% - -4%
Parking Cost $400M 5% -1% -
New Road Cost $295M - -10% -27%
Building Carbon Emissions (Tons/Yr) 14 - - -10%
Landscaping Water Use (G/Day) 91 -1% -10% -31%
Per Housing Unit Residential VMT 22 - 1% -4%
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Contributions
Methodological Innovation: First analysis of its kind to integrate disaster loss estimation into community planning at building-level resolution
Research provides a roadmap for programming a streamlined tool for participatory applications
Theoretical contribution: A new application of historical counterfactual and exploratory scenarios in community planning
Practical contribution: An opportunity to make connections between green infrastructure and resilience interests within local community planning, with potential participatory and policy applications
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Future Research
Next step: In-depth follow up interviews with stakeholders to discuss further strengths and limitations of the information and how it is presented in a participatory setting
Partnership with a programmer to streamline and automate the ET-Hazus crosswalk
Incorporate hurricane wind and storm surge models to expand the possible applications
Big picture: Lays the groundwork for a comprehensive green infrastructure planning tool
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Thank you!