GOVERNOR’S CONFERENCE 2011DRIVING DECISIONS WITH LMI

ROUNDTABLE

This project has been funded, either wholly or in part, with Federal funds from the Department of Labor, Employment & Training Administration under Task Order Number DOLJ061A20373; the mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations does not imply endorsement of same by the U.S. Government.

U.S. Department of Labor—Employment & Training Administration| Missouri Economic Research and Information Center| Missouri Department of Economic Development

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LMI for Outlook Decision Makers

Tour of synthesized LMI portals for:

Historic and Current Conditions Labor Force Workforce

Cluster-Based Development Skills Gap

What strategic planning data would you like explored/discussed today?

Or

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Missouri Economic Research & Information Center (MERIC)

Economic Research Analyst

Meredith Hill

www.missourieconomy.org

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1. Workforce Investment Board2. DWD Business Representatives3. DED Business or Industry Representative4. Rapid Response Coordinator5. NGCC Staff6. Elected Officials7. Municipal or Regional Staff8. Community Development Organization9. Other

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Indicate your team.

Your turn, please.

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What question would you likeanswered or discussed today?

•Labor Force – U.S. Census Bureau

•Workforce – LED Quarterly Workforce Indicators/OnTheMap

•Note – Occupational Employment Statistics

Current Conditio

ns

•Historic - Innovation in American Regions

•Future - Industry and Occupation Projections

ClusterAnalysis

1. Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis2. Local Employment Dynamics3. Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages

Where can I find such data?0

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After reading about Graduate St. Louis, and the Workforce Consortium’s efforts to increase the educational attainment of the 25-64 year old resident population, I am interested in my region’s education profile. What percent of the Cape Girardeau MSA is 25-64

years old? What is the educational attainment of the population? What is the employment Status of the population?

Case Study

American Community Survey - OSEDA

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American Community Survey

Decennial DecennialCensus Census

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Annual, Period Estimates Based on SizePointEstimates

A Look at "Census Data"

("Census" - Complete Count)(Samples with Margins of Error +/-)

One Year 65,000+

Three Year 20,000+

Five Year Small Areas

Under 20,000

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OSEDA Summary Tables

Age Age & Sex Race Hispanic or Latino (Any

Race)

Housing Occupancy & Tenure Units in Structure Year Structure Built Year Householder Moved into

Unit Vehicles Available House Heating Fuel Selected Characteristics

(Amenities) Occupants per Room Home Values Selected Monthly Owner

Costs Gross Rent

Demographic Housing

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OSEDA Summary Tables

Household Income & Benefits Family Income & Benefits Other Income Measures Poverty Status Employment Status Children w/ Working Parents Commuting to Work Workers by

Occupation/Industry Class of Worker

Economic

Persons/Household by Type Relationships/Marital

Status/Fertility Grandparents as Caregivers School Enrollment Educational Attainment Veteran Status Disabled by Age Residence 1 Year Ago Place of Birth and Citizenship

Status/Year of Entry World Region of Birth of

Foreign Born/Language Spoken at Home

Social

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OSEDA Results Format

- Chart Generation

- Original Census Table Numbers Provided

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OSEDA – ACS Results Format

Click on a single geography to see multiple years of ACS data

Results are reported in a grey scale. The darker the color the more reliable the result (+/- margin of error)

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OSEDA – ACS Data Reliability

CAUTION: “In Military” is barely visible because it has a +/- 179.25% possible margin of error.

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OSEDA Chart Options

Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis: mcdc1.missouri.edu/acsprofiles/acsprofilemenu.html

Economic Indicators eLearning Webinar:Module 1: Lesson 1 – LMI Fundamentalshttp://www.missourieconomy.org/e_learning/index.stm

Website Links

1. American Community Survey2. Local Employment Dynamics3. Quarterly Census of Employment &

Wages

Where can I find such data?0

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During case study conversations conducted by MERIC, in support of the State of St. Louis Workforce 2011 report, employers reported an aging workforce. I want to report this qualitative data in a quantitative way using labor market information. I need to collect total employment by age cohort for

the St. Louis MO-IL MSA.

Case Study

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QWI – Detailed by State

LED – Quarterly Workforce Indicators & OnTheMap

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QWI by Age, Education or Race

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QWI – Detailed by Geography

Step 1 Step 2. Note (MO

Part)

Step 3

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QWI – Workforce Trends

1. Double Check

2. Make Elections

Table will change

with each election

Age, Ed, Race

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QWI – Detailed by Demographics

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QWI – Detailed by Demographics

2. Download Excel

1. Hold CONTROL to elect multiple years.

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Total14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-99 Employment

1996 4.42 5.29 6.10 25.78 27.56 19.22 8.83 2.81 1,238,5531997 4.53 5.37 6.00 25.04 27.71 19.64 9.01 2.69 1,271,1191998 4.58 5.53 5.93 24.02 27.59 20.17 9.35 2.83 1,291,7821999 4.61 5.70 6.10 23.36 27.40 20.69 9.38 2.75 1,304,7432000 4.64 5.79 6.15 22.55 26.97 21.40 9.48 3.01 1,332,0322001 4.38 5.75 6.27 22.18 26.40 22.07 9.98 2.97 1,313,3392002 4.09 5.65 6.43 21.92 25.65 22.54 10.60 3.12 1,313,3342003 3.96 5.63 6.59 21.74 24.92 22.95 11.08 3.13 1,297,7592004 3.77 5.52 6.60 21.64 24.21 23.33 11.62 3.31 1,314,0982005 3.73 5.56 6.58 21.54 23.62 23.65 12.07 3.27 1,318,4142006 3.65 5.47 6.46 21.44 23.02 23.81 12.64 3.50 1,338,7312007 3.54 5.38 6.47 21.71 22.36 23.86 13.10 3.57 1,339,9752008 3.30 5.18 6.30 21.81 21.77 24.00 13.78 3.86 1,333,5532009 2.78 5.09 6.24 22.03 21.29 24.17 14.48 3.92 1,256,714

% Change -37% -4% 2% -15% -23% 26% 64% 39%

Workforce Age CohortFourth Quarter

QWI – Aging Workforce Summary

St. Louis MSA (MO & IL Combined)

LED Quarterly Workforce Indicators: http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/datatools/qwi-online.html

Economic Indicators eLearning Webinar:Module 3: Lesson 1 – LMI and Strategic Planninghttp://www.missourieconomy.org/e_learning/index.stm

Website Links

1. Petroleum and Coal Products Mfg2. Architectural and Structural Metals Mfg3. Computer and Peripheral Equipment Mfg

Which is NOT a MO Advanced Mfg industry?

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Last month MERIC released the first of seven Target Cluster Analyses. The seven clusters were identified in the 2010 Strategic Initiative for Economic Growth developed by the Department of Economic Development. Cluster employment estimates and projections were used to determine the level of education/skills required by Missouri’s Advanced Manufacturing workers.

Case Study

Target Industry Clusters

AdvancedManufactur

ing

Energy Solutions

Biosciences

Health Care

Sciences &Services

Transportation

& Logistics

Information Technology

Financial & Professiona

lServices

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Target Cluster Occupation Analysis

Strategic Initiative for Economic Growth Missouri

Advanced Manufacturing 29 Industries (4-digit NAICS)

1. Food2. Transportation Equipment3. Fabricated Metal Product4. Machinery5. Chemical

Step 1

•Define the master geography

•Define the cluster by identifying included industries

Innovation In American Regions

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Cluster-Based Economic Development

Advanced Materials Agribusiness Apparel & Textiles Arts, Entertainment,

Recreation Biomedical/Biotechnical Business and Financial

Services Chemicals Defense and Security Education and Knowledge

Creation

Industry Clusters

Energy Forest and Wood Products Glass and Ceramics Information Technology

and Communications Transportation and

Logistics Manufacturing

Supercluster Mining Printing and Publishing

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Target Cluster Occupation Analysis

Staffing patterns are part of the BLS employment projections project. Proprietary/confidential

For each industry, staffing patterns report: The types of occupations, and The number of jobs per

occupation.A manufacturing plant might have a registered nurse on staff, but not as many as a hospital

would have on staff.

Step 2

•Collect staffing patterns for each industry

National Staffing Patterns

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Target Cluster Occupation Analysis

782 Occupations in Missouri 395 Occupations in Missouri’s

Advanced Manufacturing Cluster Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and

Weighers is in all 29 industries, but Agricultural Engineers is only in 1 industry.

Step 3

•Aggregate staffing patterns by occupation

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Target Cluster Occupation Analysis

Step 1

•Define the master geography

•Define the cluster by identifying included industries

Step 2

•Collect staffing patterns for each industry

Step 3

•Aggregate staffing patterns by occupation

Step 4

•Apply staffing patterns to an employment data set

Long Term Occupation Projections

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1. All the time/I’m an expert2. Often/I understand their application3. Sometimes/I understand the work

of colleagues4. Infrequently/I am sure they are

used in reports I rely on but I don’t know their process

5. Never/I don’t think they are applicable to my work

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How often do you use staffing pattern information in your routine work?

Industry/Occupation Staffing Patterns

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Cluster Workforce Analysis

Advanced Manufacturing

Estimated

2008

% 2008

Cluster Jobs

Projected

2018

% 2018

Cluster Jobs

All 395 Occupations 29 Industries

191,431 177,992

Civil Engineers 4 Industries

2,910 1.52 3,254 1.83

Helpers – Production Workers 22 Industries

2,798 1.46 2,387 1.34

1. What is the distribution of jobs, by occupation, for a cluster?

2. Is the distribution projected to change?

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Education Required by Skills Level

•First Professional degree

•Doctoral degree

•Master’s degree

•Bachelor’s or higher degree

•Bachelor’s degree

High

•Associate degree

•Postsecondary vocational award

•Work experience in a related occupation

•Long-term on-the-job training

•Moderate-term on-the-job training

Middle

•Short-term on-the-job training

Low

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Cluster Workforce Analysis

Advanced ManufacturingOccupations % of 2008

Cluster Jobs

% of 2008-18 Jobs to

fill

125 occupations require high skills

29.6 34.0

214 occupations require middle skills

56.5 53.7

56 occupations require low skills

13.9 12.3

3. What is the current jobs distribution by occupation skill level?

4. What is the distribution for the projected jobs to be filled (new and replaced)?

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Cluster Workforce Analysis

5. How do the skill levels needed for Advanced Manufacturing compare to all projected jobs for Missouri?

Missouri Target Industry Clusters: www.missourieconomy.org/pdfs/MoTargetsAdvancedManufacturing.pdf

Innovation in American Regions: www.statsamerica.org/innovation/index.html/

Economic Indicators eLearning Webinar:Module 2: Lesson 1 – Creating a Career Pathwayhttp://www.missourieconomy.org/e_learning/index.stm

Website Links

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1. Jobs by Occupation2. Jobs by Education/Skill3. Occupations by Industry/Cluster4. Cluster Reports including

Establishments, Employment & Wages

5. Regional Comparisons6. Statewide data7. All of the above

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What type of data analysis is most useful to you? (Elect all that apply)

Occupation and Job Numbers

Go Live

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Thank you for your participation!

Economic Research Analyst

573-751-0288

meredith.hill@ded.mo.gov

Southeast/South Central

Regions

Tony Brite - Northwest

Tom Reichart - Northeast

John Kozel - Central

Sonal Hate - Ozark/Southwest/Kansas City Vicinity

(Mike Muin) - St. Louis

(Lindsey Peters) - West Central

Meredith Hill Regional Liaisons