globalfeed markets - march | april 2011
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Grain & Feed Milling Technology is published six times a year by Perendale Publishers Ltd of the United Kingdom.All data is published in good faith, based on information received, and while every care is taken to prevent inaccuracies,
the publishers accept no liability for any errors or omissions or for the consequences of action taken on the basis of information published.©Copyright 2010 Perendale Publishers L td. All rights reserved. No par t of this publication may be reproduced in any formor by any means without prior permission of the copyright owner. Printed by Perendale Publishers Ltd. ISSN: 1466-3872
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GlOBl GIN & FEED MKETS
Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviewsworld trading conditions which are impacting the fu ll range of
commodities used in food and feed production. His observationswill influence your decision-making.
US maize prices
rose to their highest
level since June
2008 in early
March as traders
continued to factor
in forecasts of the
lowest US seasonal
ending stocks in
15-years. The US
stock is the main
factor in declining
world inventories as
this season’s global
consumption of the
grain runs about
22.5m tonnes over
production.
NERVOUS grain and oilseed markets
rose above last year’s summer highs
to near three-year peaks toward the
end of first quarter 2010 – though
wheat and soya prices are backtracking steeply
as we go to press.
Wheat and maize initially took turns to lead
renewed market strength as traders continuedto fret over the adequacy of projected 2011
crops while a resurgent energy sector suggested
competition for grains would remain strong
between food, feed and fuel users. ‘Panic’ buy ing
of various foodstuffs, especially staples like wheat,
sugar and rice, by Arab governments facing political
upheavals gave markets a strong ‘demand-led’ feel
at times. However, the turmoil across the Middle
East and North Africa appeared to be a double-
edged sword for speculative buyers in grain futures
markets, encouraging them with steep gains in
crude oil and gold prices but also raising fears that
rising energy costs would send the global economic
recovery into reverse with all the implications for
slower commodity demand.
On the supply side, big question marks
continue to overhang US
and Russian winter wheat
prospects following their poor start amid autumn
droughts and, in parts of
the US Plains, persistent
dryness problems. Australia
continues to count the
cost of the devastating
Queensland floods although
its continuing role in world
food wheat export trade
and its overseas milling
customers’ ability to work
round some of its quality
problems with creative
blending, suggest the bullish impact of this factor
may have been somewhat over-played. Ongoing
competition on world export markets from
Canada and Europe too, despite smaller and lower
quality 2010 crops respectively - plus a larger than
expected Argentine crop - have also stopped the
bulls running away with the wheat market entirely.
Yet the year ahead is full of uncertainties. Whilethe latest International Grains Council report is
chalking in a possible 24.5m tonne recovery in
wheat output, a Canadian Wheat Board official
recently suggested the gain might be closer to 6m
tonnes (albeit within a broad 635/675m range
that would allow for 12.5m less as well as 24.5m
more grain than last year, depending on weather
and other factors).
The CWB also expects a minimal rise in this
year’s Canadian crop although the more important
issue here is whether, within the total, Canada
can produce a more normal proportion of milling
wheat after two years of weather hindrance on
that front. Prayers for that outcome must be even
more fervent in Australia, where off icials recently
suggested their next crop (harvested late 2011/
Trade pins hopes on 2011crop rebound
Gn&feed mnG tenooGy42 | march - pril 2011
COMMODITIES
Gn&feed mnG tenooGy march - pril 2011 | 43
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Whatever maize crop the US does achieve
in 2011, it will start wit h extremely low stocks.
Until there is evidence of these being rebuilt,
prices could stay firm in this sector, keeping
other grain and oilseed markets up. The US
will also need a timely harvest as supplies
dwindle from July into August.
Oilmeal costs have also risen in the last
month or two, propelled by extremely s trong
Chinese demand for US soyabeans, eating
too quickly into the latter’s total supply and
threatening a possible severe end-season stock squeeze. US traders have also been fretting
about fairly conservative figures being touted
for this spring;s US soyabean planted acreage –
just enough, maybe, to meet demand if perfect
weather delivers good yields. Demanding
some price-restraint, though Latin American
soyabean crops are turning out far bigger than
expected. That should relieve pressure on the
US in the months ahead, possible leading to
some cancelled US export business. The South
Americans may also sow bigger crops again
this autumn, if prices persist at anything like
current levels. However, some improvement
in supplies of the other leading traded oilseeds
– like rapeseed and sunflowerseed - would be
useful in keeping prices under control across
the oilmeal sector.
Main commodity highlightssince our last review
Wheat up – then downA glance at our wheat charts below
shows prices for the leading indicators have
recently been at their most expensive since
the summer of 2008. As noted above, the
factors behind the latest increases include
ongoing weather uncertainties in the US and
Russia, Australia’s flooding/quality problems,
strong demand from the Middle East and a
fair dash of speculative support (fund buying)
each time the market gets a piece of bullish
news. One of the big differences between
now and 2008, as pointed out in this column
previously, is that world stocks were much
lower then – both in absolute terms and in
relation to consumption. This season’s endingstocks (in July) are in fact projected more than
50m or about 42% higher than those held
at the end of 2007/08, when wheat prices
last boomed. There is st ill a lot of grain in the
main exporting country, the USA, especially
- even before the next crop comes along. US
planted area is expected to be up by about
6% but with drought stressing the hard red
winter crop since it was sown – and spring
wheat area possibly declining too – some
USDA economists believe production could
still drop by 3.5m tonnes to about 56.5m.
Even then, supply including carryover stocks
would still be comfortable. US wheat markets
to be tight at
the close of
2010/11 at end-
June. However,
the squeeze
on supplies of
higher grade
milling wheats
continues to
tighten, leading
to some very
w ide pr i cepremiums in recent weeks. North American
hard spring wheat export prices, for example,
were recently quoted at their dearest levels
since June 2008. This is obviously focusing keen
market interest on how much hard wheat
will be sown on that Continent this spring –
and early portents are less than encouraging.
Despite high prices, US spring wheat area may
decline as other crops offer better returns.
Canada, meanwhile, could see interruptions
to its mainly spring sown wheat crop
as a massive snow pack melts amid
forecasts of heavier than usual rains
from latter March onward (possible
well into the growing period - though
these longer range forecasts can be
unreliable).
On the other hand, European
plantings are up – perhaps not quiteas much as earlier hoped but, with
decent summer weather and normal
yields and quality (especially in the
top quality producer Germany) things
could loosen up enough here by the
autumn in terms of volume and quality to ease
milling wheat premiums a little. The question
remains, though, what will wheat be worth on
world markets early in the new season. Will
persistent high world prices drag too much EU
wheat overseas, as has arguably happened this
season? Wheat will also have to follow maize
prices, both in terms of the contest for spring
acres and as a competing feedgrain.
Maize markets grew jittery again in the
past month despite early USDA forecasts
of a possible 4.2m acre rise in US plantings.
Some traders believe that is unlikely, given the
demand for acres from all crops – althoughmaize prices are certainly attractive to US
farmers. Then there is the question of yields.
Last year – with supposedly optimum and
trouble-free growing conditions, the US crop
raced to completion and ended up with rather
disappointing yields whereas in 2009, a delayed
start a nd long cool development period saw
productivity soar (even with a wet harvest that
ran beyond the year’s end – though this did
affect quality in many areas). If all went well
this year, current planting forecasts suggest
the US could produce as much as 250/255 m
tonnes, according to some observers - or 20m
to 30m less if weather misbehaves, say others.
early 2012) might decline from this year’s very
high level. With a return to normal weather,
Australia could still produce millions of tonnes
more high quality milling wheat next seas on
than this. Along with bigger expected bigger
Indian and Ukrainian crops, not to mention
still large world carryover stocks from this
season (especially within the main supplying
country, the USA), this suggests a less bullish
wheat market later in 2011/12.
On the demand side for wheat, a possible fly
in the ointment of potentially looser supply is
potential for stronger feed use. Consumption
by this sector is expected to rise by several
million tonnes globally this year to its highest
level since the early 1990’s as meat producers
seek alternatives to tight and expensive maize
and barley. A currently forecast 5% rise in
world wheat feeding to 123m tonnes will be
spread mainly over Australia, Canada, the
USA, China and the former Soviet Union,
offset by a drop in the EU.
While wheat has remain expensive in
recent months, the price has recently comewell off its highs – dropping at one stage by
almost 20% from the February peaks. Maize
on the other hand, has risen sharply in value,
narrowing the price spread between the two
grains to its smallest in many years. This is
influencing importers’ grain buying decisions,
especially in Asia, where feed wheat purchases
have recently risen strongly. China has been a
notable buyer, taking advantage of the large
proportion of this year’s weather-damaged
Australian milling wheat supply downgraded
to feed.
Even with this extra global demand for
wheat in feeds, supplies are not expected
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time to salvage a reasonable US crop?
• US planting competition – will other crops
take hard spring wheat acres?
• European and Canadian crops – will summer
weather live up to that descrip tion this year,
enabling more high-protein, higher quality
milling wheat production?
• ‘Black Sea’ crops – what sort of crop/export
comeback will Russia, other CIS suppliers
make?
• Will US maize output increase much – taking
pressure off wheat as a feed source?
Coarse grains – limited maizerelief next year?
US maize prices rose to their highest level
since June 2008 in early March as traders
continued to factor in forecasts of the lowest
US seasonal ending stocks in 15-years. The
US stock is t he main factor in declining world
inventories as this season’s global consumption
of the grain runs about 22.5m tonnes over
production.
What the US sows and grows this year will
be the main factor in any recovery in world
supplies. The most recent outlook from the
USDA suggests its own farmers will put in
92m acres – 3.8m more than last year though
some traders think this a bit optimistic,others believe it is ‘do-able’ given the current
extremely high price of corn and some spare
fallow acres coming into the total farmland
pot. Depending on whether yields are above,
below or average, the next US crop could
be anywhere from 310 to 350m tonnes. The
top end would add a few million tonnes to
stocks, taking some of the upward pressure
off prices. Ear ly long-range weather forecasts
have raised the odds somewhat on a wetter
spring, possibly running into early summer. This
cuts both ways. On the one hand, it could trim
corn planting plans, turning acres over to soya,
which can be planted later. On the other hand,
it sets the crop up with plenty of moisture
and, given a long cool growing season, this can
actually benefit productivity – as we saw in
2009, when these a wet start put the market
on red alert, only to see the crop finish withrecord yields and output.
Elsewhere in the maize supplying world,
supplies have been kept up by good
harvests for the second year running in Latin
America and Ukraine. Exports have also
been supplemented by a much larger India
crop. Along with the surplus of feedwheat
this season – and a decline in global import
demand for maize – these contributions are
helping to keep maize prices under control
while awaiting the next US crop.
As we go to press, the maize market, like
wheat, has backtracked from its February
highs by about 8.5% - if still a staggering 85%
world wheat pricing. Currently it is sit ting on
massive stocks and it expects another huge,
possibly record crop this year. Exports – of
several million tonnes – would make sense
to protect domestic growers’ incomes and
keep them enthused but, like neighbouring
Pakistan (also in surplus) and many other
developing countries, India is anxious about
food price inflation – both home-produced,
through economic growth, and imported
from the volatile world market for food
commodities. But while exportsfrom the Indian subcontinent
could remain restricted, they
remain a possibility – especially
if world prices start to retreat
more seriously, and this golden
opportunity to earn good export
revenue seems to slip away.
The International Grains
Council recently forecast world
wheat sowings would increase
this year by 3.4% - up nearly 8%
in the CIS, countries, just 1.2% in Europe and
South America, 9.6% in Canada and 4.4% in
Australia. On trend yields it extrapolates a
possible crop of 672m tonnes versus last year’s
647.5m. Even if consumption stayed around
this season’s unusually high level, that would
still add to stocks.
A recent forecast from a Canadian WheatBoard Official was more guarded, however,
putting production in a possible range
of 635/672m tonnes with a likely f igure
of just 653.5m. With consumption
seen in a range of 655/675m but a
median figure of 660m, this veers on
the side of further stock drawdown, if
not ruling out a looser scenario.
Clearly, until more hard information
comes to hand about condition of
2011 crops and weather over the
next six months, wheat prices could
well stay volatile. With the spread
against maize now so narrow, they will
also have to follow the latter market closely,
regardless of improving wheat supply.
The descent in world prices has had a
marked impact on EU wheat costs. This has
been well reflected in the Paris milling wheatfutures market where nearby delivery has
fallen to just �234/tonne after hitting a low
of �227.75. In February, the price was 15%
higher at �281 and some dealers spoke of it
challenging the record 2008 high of �295, even
�300/tonne. LIFFE feed wheat futures have
seen a smaller drop, easing about 12% f rom
£210 to under £185/tonne.
KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHSAHEAD
• US weather – will Plains drought break in
continue to price in a ‘risk pre mium’ until more
is known about coming US and world crops.
In February the markets experienced a flurry
of buying amid talk of a major drought loss
to crops in China – the world’s largest wheat
producer and consumer but that appears to
have blown over after recent rain and snow
shrunk the drought area markedly. However,
Australia does not seem to have done as
badly as feared after the Queensland floods
and remains a fairly keen competitor for
international milling wheat import tenders.
Canada has also figured from time to time
in milling wheat deals despite its lower
quality 2010 crop which buyers like Japan are
reportedly managing to accommodate by
relaxing blending specifications somewhat.
Russia, of course, is still out of the world wheat
market and its officials recently backtracked onhints that their export ban might end in July
when the next crop comes in. This may be an
indicator that things aren’t going so well there
crop-condition-wise – or it may simply point
to the authorities trying to keep prices under
control on a tight and still frisky domesticbreadwheat market. It would not be a big
surprise if this year’s crop does manage some
sort of rebound, enough to resume exports
later this summer, albeit on a smaller scale than
normal. Ukraine and Kazakhstan meanwhile
remain sellers on a small scale and if their cr ops
go well, they could s tep up expor ts in 2011/12.
Yet while some sort of reprise might be sen
for the ‘Black Sea’ exporters as a whole, it
seems unlikely that these will perform their
role of recent past years in pulling the world
price of lower/middling grade breadwheats
down levels that buyers had become
accustomed to. India is another wild card in
Gn&feed mnG tenooGy46 | march - pril 2011
COMMODITIES
Gn&feed mnG tenooGy march - pril 2011 | 47
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is still growing rapidly and expected to
continue on its upward trajectory. The
USDA expects it to raise demand for soya
meal alone by over 7m tonnes – almost 20%
- in the current season ending September
30. World total demand for soyameal is
seen growing by about 9% or 15m tonnes,
requiring crush of about 19m tonnes more
soyabeans. The message is clear: the main
suppliers in North and South American must
keep expanding their crops – this year, next
year and into the future.First indications for US sowings this spring
suggest only a minimal increase in sown area
and a crop not much bigger than last year’s
90.6m – which has proved barely adequate
to meet demand – as farmers decide to
cash in on high maize prices instead. The
US has had good yields for the past two
years. Will it get the right weather again?
Further forward, the Latin Americans have
the land resources to raise their planted
areas for their 2012 crops when sowing
begins in October. However, they will need
a continuing stimulus from soyabean and
product export prices.
Looking at the other major oilseed
crops, 2010/11 was an unimpressive year
for expansion of rapeseed and sunflowers.
Although production of oilmeals in total
rose by about 15.7m tonnes, 85% of thatwas down to soya. So, while the influx of
new crop Latin American soya may ease
prices for a while this spring and early
summer, uncertainty over longer term
supplies may see costs level out later in
the year.
KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHSAHEAD
• The final size of expected record Latin
American soya harvests
• US soyabean sowings and crop weather
• China’s ongoing livestock expansion & its
demand for more soya
• European & CIS countries’ rapeseed crop
progress & sunflower sowings
• Canadian rapeseed plantings/weather
• Ca n China continue self-sufficient in maize
or will it need to import from the west?
Oilmeals – supply boost fromBumper Latam soya crops
Feed users facing higher costs for their
soya meal for the past year may see prices
ease in the months as Latin American
soyabean crops turn out much larger than
expected a few months ago. The biggest shifthas been in Argentina’s fortunes with the
lifting of a major drought threat. Production
there could now be around 50/ 52m tonnes –
possibly even more – compared with about
48m expected at the turn of the year when
some pessimists thought the crop could fall
as low as 43m tonnes from last year’s record
54.5m. Brazil has done even better and is
now expected tom produce around 70/72m
versus
l a s t year ’ s
6 9 m , a l s o
an al l -t ime
record. Both
countries are
expected to
crush more
soyabeans
(Argentinac a n d r a w
o n l a r g e r
than normal
stocks too), resulting in more about 6-7m
tonnes more (about 20%) meal for export
customers. Brazil is also expected to ship
more whole soyabeans to foreign crushers.
The improvement in South American
producers’ fortunes has weighed against a
tightening US soyabean market as China
continues to suck away record quantities
from the main supplier. China and other
buyers have already begun to switch to
cheaper new crop Latin American supplies
just starting to arrive on the market.
Prices of soya meal in the US have already
dropped by 11% from their 2½–year peaks
set in early February if still about 25% dearer
than at this time last year while Europeanprices have also started to
descend.
The decline might have
been greater if not for some
moderately bullish factors
persisting in this market.
One is the ongoing strength
of Chinese demand for
oilmeal proteins. Although
i t s imports of whole
soyabeans have recently
slackened off somewhat,
this trend is probably
temporary as feed demand
dearer than at this time last year. The main
factor has been growing unease over the
impact of high energy costs on the global
economy, slowing demand for higher
value foods, including meat, with a knock
on effect on consumption of feedstuffs.
However, a more potent factor may be
the negative sentiment this creates in the
investment community, where speculative
funds and institutional investors including
pension funds, may have put rather too
much faith in a one-way commodity boom.A rocketing crude oil price may well kick-
start slowing expansion in demand for
alternative/bio-fuels (corn and sugar
ethanol, soya and rapeseed bio-diesel etc),
implying a highly bullish effect for these
commodities. However, a stalling world
economic recovery could negate much of
the impact. Most of the growth in feed
demand, especially maize and soya, is in
China and other developing countries. Even
China seems to be feeling the pinch this
month, cutting soya imports and recording
an unusual trade deficit. Along with the
political instability in the Arab world, this
is making investors far more cautions. If it
is true, as some analysts cl aim, that the top
20/30% (maybe more) of the commodity
price boom is down to speculators, the
withdrawal of this support could be
expected to help prices relax further.
KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHSAHEAD
• US weather – a dry spring is now needed
to allow timely sowing and fulfillment of
acreage targets
• How much will CIS countries and Europe
sow?
• Will expanding US ethanol exports eat
deeper into supplies at the expense of food,
feed and other more traditional users?
• Will the Arab world settle down, easing
upward pressure on energy markets and
negative global economic impacts on world
meat and feedgrain demand?
• Less feed wheat next season could mean
less competition for maize
Gn&feed mnG tenooGy48 | march - pril 2011 Gn&feed mnG tenooGy march - pril 2011 | 49
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