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Digital Re-print - March | April 2012Global Feed Markets: March - April 2012

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GLOBAL GRAIN & FEED MARKETS

Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviewsworld trading conditions which are impacting the full range of 

commodities used in food and feed production. His observationswill influence your decision-making.

 Wheat poised to up

or down?

The predominant

theme for wheat

has remained huge

supplies. Prices

are still well above

the levels seen

last time stocks

 were anywhere

near this large but

support continues to

come from several

directions.

CHOPPY markets have persisted across

the grain and oilseed complex since

our last review, as traders have tried to

calculate the net bullish/bearish sum froma whole set of colliding fundamentals. On the negativeside, these include shrinking South American maize

and soyabean crops, dwindling US maize supplies,

big winter wheat crop losses in the former Soviet

Union – perhaps (though to a lesser extent) much of 

Western Europe too and incipient drought in the UK,France, Spain and Poland. Yet against these remains

the main market anchor - massive world wheat

stocks carried over from last year’s record harvests .

Market attention is also turning increasingly toward

2012 crop prospects in the Northern Hemisphere – probably lower wheat production, possibly significantly 

higher coarse grain output – especially maize and

probably barley too – but a likely shortfall in raw

material supplies for the oil-meal protein sector 

amid inadequate American soyabean and European

rapeseed crops.

Market bulls have also been excited by resurf acing

ideas that China could be about to raid the world

market for extra grain and oilseed supplies to fill

its growing feed deficit. Yet while China remains a

voracious consumer of imported soyabeans, it has

so far not lived up to forecasts that it will mop up

remaining US maize supplies, astutely spreading

purchases over origins for both maize and feedwheat.

Another mitigating factor - other global demand for 

coarse grains and soya may be growing less quickly 

 than in recent years amid ongoing economic turmoil

and tight trade finance which appears to be forcing

some developing countries to scale back or delay livestock expansion plans in case their meat demand

suffers from lower consumer spending. The bio-

fuel juggernaut is also slowing markedly in the USA

as profitability declines with reduced government

support, high raw material costs (maize) and a buildup

in ethanol stocks, implying supply has been growing

 too fast for demand (even with the US exporting

record amounts of ethanol to countries like Brazil!). .

Meanwhile, sentiment on the ‘macro’ markets – 

energy, gold, currencies, equities and the grand economic

factors driving them – continues to shift almost daily 

from bear to bull and back again as pundits continually 

change their minds (often almost daily!) on prospects

for Euro-zone/US economic recovery, the extent to

which slowing Chinese GDP might dampen Asian/

global growth etc etc. This has created a situation in

which the highly influential fund community don’t seem to know whether to carry on investing in agricultural

commodities or dump them for more promising assets

(whatever they might be in today’s strange economic

climate). It all makes for uncertain markets ahead.

That said, there are many encouraging signs for feed

grain consumers. The US has already started to sow

a massive maize crop that will (weather permitting)

start to r estore tight US and global stocks of the grain.

The USA’s fastest up-and-coming maize export rival,

Ukraine, also plans to plant a record maize area on

failed winter wheat land, promising to intensify the

fight for feed grain import customers next autumn.

Europe will probably plant more maize too. There also

seems to be no shortage of feedwheat including record

supplies left over from two downgraded Australian

milling wheat harvests, another record Indian wheat

crop, still large supplies from last year ’s reviving Russian

and Kazakh crops.

The main worry is soya – if the Latin Americancrops are as low as some analysts think, things could

get tighter than expected by the autumn when the US

might not be counted on (based on early 

estimates of sown area) to begin making

up for Latin American crop shortfalls.

Europe – east and west – does not seem

 to be sowing enough rapeseed to keep

up with demand. Although this is more

of a problem for edible oil than for meal

users, it does influence the r elatively tighter 

protein supply. Still, Canada may go some

way to making up this deficit in terms of 

global rapeseed supply.

Plentiful wheat but questions over feedgrain outlook

Gn&feed mnG tenooGy34 | march - pril 2012

COMMODITIES

Main commodity highlights sinceour last reviewWheat poised to up or down? 

The predominant theme for wheat has

remained huge supplies. Prices are still well above

 the levels seen last time stocks were anywhere

near this large but support continues to come

from several directions. These include tighter 

maize, consequent potential for more wheat

feeding, higher wheat production costs over the

last decade, ongoing concerns about the adequacy 

of forward quality breadwheat supplies and, not

least, ideas that world production peaked in 2011

and will slip this year (the International GrainsCouncil recently suggested by about 15m tonnes).

 With about 10m tonnes more stocks likely to be

carried into 2012/13, that drop might not seem

 too important, but it does underline the fact that

some Northern Hemisphere countries have less

 than ideal weather as we go to press.

 Wheat has also been supported by speculative

funds holding a record large short or sold position

on Chicago futures markets, effectively betting on

prices going down. This makes wheat sensitive to

price rises in other grains, especially maize as short

sellers have to cover their positions with margin

deposits, or close them out. The net effect tends

 to be exaggerated price rises in wheat, often down

 to non-wheat factors.

Since our last review, when prices were nudging

 their lowest levels since the summer of 2010,

 the trend has been upward, Chicago

rising by about 12%, EU wheat by as

much as 13.5% at one stage. There have

been plenty of backers for prices going higher still

or into reverse. In the US, traders have been

looking to stronger exports fi rming the market as

competition from the Black Sea countries – usually 

 the main factor driving wheat export prices down

 – remained on a smaller scale and more expensive

 than usual. That is partly down to logistics – Russia,

Ukraine and Kazakhstan all had seasonal problems

getting what grain they had to sell across frozen

 transport systems and out of ice-bound ports.

It also reflected unease in the Ukraine where

maybe half this year’s winter wheat crop was lost

 to autumn droughts and recent arctic weather.

As this land is more likely to be replanted with

maize than spring wheat, the authorities there areanxious to conserve wheat supplies and will likely 

carry in more old crop stocks than last year but

 that will help them continue sort of wheat export

presence in 2012/13, once the final cr op outcome

is known. Kazakhstan and Russia still have a lot of 

old crop grain to move and are expected to step

up efforts to clear more in second quarter 2012,

rather than be forced into a buyers’ market to

clear store space when their next crops arrive.

So far Russia expects a bigger 2012 wheat crop,

Kazakhstan somewhat less.

The ‘Black Sea’ (former Soviet country)

supply hiccups of the past couple of years are not

expected to dent their long term ambitions to

expand grain production and exports with new

ports and upgrades underway even now. It thus

makes sense for them to start soon, improving

 their image as reliable suppliers – though their 

cheap costs will always be the key factor driving

 this expansion.

Recent EU private estimates suggest EU

2012 soft wheat output prospects have been

 trimmed a bit more than expected by the cold

weather in Jan/Feb. With dry weather in several

countries bringing further threats to yields, some

estimates of EU total production are as much

as 2m tonne or more below last year’s 137.5m

compared with earlier ideas of a crop increase

of at least 2m tonnes. While last year’s was crop

wasn’t stellar, (compared with 139m in 2009 and

151m in 2008), it was better t han the previous

year’s and nothing like as low as the doomsayers

forecast back in the early summer droughts and

heatwaves when some talked of 25-30% crop

losses. That remarkable ‘recovery’ suggests it may be a bit too early for markets to get too excited

about the weather but, nonetheless, this will need

monitoring closely in the months ahead.

On the debit side of world wheat supply for the

year ahead, we have early forecasts that Australian

production might drop back by 3m or 4 m tonnes

while it clears las t year’s surpluses – but that would

still be a big crop, close to t he peaks that preceded

last year’s, upgraded this month to a record 29.5m

 tonnes. If Australia got better harvest weather, it

could even end up with more milling wheat to

export rather than the feed wheat surpluses of 

 the last two rain-plagued years. Ukraine’s winter 

wheat crop could also be down 30-50% - maybe

down 8/11m tonnes - while Kazak h sowings are

also seen lower but Russia’s higher. Merging in a

possible 6m to 8m tonne gain for the USA, 1-2m

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Northern Hemisphere crops – yields nearly 

always affect crop size more than shifts in

sown acreage.

• Better rains in recent months than in the

same period last year should boost the US

hard red winter bread wheat cr op on larger 

sown area. But will US spring wheat sowings

be up or down – a big factor in world top

quality wheat supply.

• World wheat import trade is strengthening

amid greater demand for feedwheat and

crop shortfalls for bread wheat in some

importing countries, including Iran and

Morocco.• India is likely to export more wheat, helping

 to keep world prices under control.

• Will Australia cut wheat sowings back as

much as some say and will that matter so

much to breadwheat consumers if weather 

 there improves after two ye ars of rain-

lowered quality?

• Wheat remains likely to take much of its price-

direction from maize – a big US maize crop

could this summer could mean less demand

for feed wheat – a US maize shortfall could

be the rising tide that lifts all boats.

Maize - tight now but suppliescould rise this year

Several surprises in USDA’s latest maize

estimates left the bulls feeling fenced in duringMarch. The market consensus was expecting

another cut in world production after droughts

in Latin America. In the event, USDA raised the

world crop by 800,000 tonnes and even increased

 the South American total (Brazil +1m). If this turns

out accurate, one of the worst droughts in recent

decades will not prevent the two big Lat-Am maize

exporter s having 2.75m tonnes more supply than

last year! They may, as USDA predicts, export a bit

less as both are using more domestically. But that

isn’t expected to make much of a draw on supplies

from the main exporter, the USA, whose foreign

sales are still seen falling (to 43.5m tonnes from

last season’s 45.3m tonnes). The more important

factor, it seems, is the 14m tonnes of maize now

expected to come out of the Ukraine this season

compared with just 5m normally – plus the strong

competition from abundant feedwheat, especially 

from Australia’s last, weather-affected crop. World maize consumption growth remains

relatively robust. USDA raised its estimate by 2m

 tonnes to a new record of almost 870m tonnes – 

25m or 3% more than last season. The lion’s share

of this growth is in China (15m tonnes), the rest

spread over Brazil, India, Europe and a number 

of smaller users.

Because production was higher than expected,

world stocks fell less than markets anticipated – by 

 just 800,000 tonnes. At 124.5m (by September 

 this year) the end season world maize supply will

still be historically low, especially in relation to even

increasing demand. Yet this equation has probably 

been well factored into maize prices in the $6.50’s/

breadwheat premiums under control. However,

wheat prices will also be determined by those

of maize, through the feed connection, making a

successful US maize crop vital to forward price

stability too.

USDA - offers mixed bag of March data

The current season has three months to run

for wheat and is about halfway through for maize

and soyabeans. Latest appraisals for global supply 

and demand from the USDA have contributed t o the confused state of the markets. For wheat, for 

example, rather than raising world 2011/12 wheat

ending stocks as the trade expec ted in March, the

USDA trimmed these by 2.5m tonnes as cuts of 

3.5m in China, 500,000 tonnes each in the US and

Kazakhstan were only partly offset by 

1.5m tonnes added to the EU.

 World wheat s tocks fell despite

an even higher (new record) figure

for world 2011/12 wheat production

of 694m tonnes (up 44m from the

previous season) as USDA also raised

consumption by 3.5m tonnes. China

alone accounted for 2.5m tonnes of 

 this extra demand, Iran 0.5m, smaller 

countries an aggregate 500,000 tonnes

although wheat use estimates were cut by 1.2m

 tonnes for the EU and 200,000 for the USA.

The USDA also raised its estimate of worldwheat trade by 3m tonnes, the lion’s share of the

extra imports going to Iran (+1.8m) which has

been a heavy buyer in the last few weeks. The

additional exports were expected to go to the

USA (1m), Brazil, Australia, Kazakhstan (500,000

each) and Turkey (300,000).

On balance, this USDA report was broadly 

supportive for US and European wheat prices but

not excessively so, given the broader context of 

record world wheat stocks and a likely larger sown

area for 2012 which, even with some trimming of 

yields from last year’s record highs, should keep

wheat markets amply supplied going forward.

IGC outlook for 2012/13 - summary - World

wheat area is expected to expand by 1.5% for the

2012/13 harvest, including gains i n North Amer ica

and the CIS. Bigger maize and barley crops may 

reduce use of feed wheat which will nonetheless

stay relatively high. Growth in food demand shouldbe sustained at the long-term trend while gains in

fuel ethanol production will lift use in the industr ial

sector. Only a modest decline in world wheat

carryovers is projected at the end of 2012/13.

Because of reduced feed wheat demand, global

 trade is forecast to show a small decline.

KEY FACTORS IN THE

 MONTHS AHEAD

• How much more wheat have Russia,

Ukraine, Kazakhstan left for export?

• How badly will EU winter wheat crops be affected

by the Jan/Feb freeze & current droughts?

• What will the summer weather bring for 

 tonnes for Canada, flat to lower EU output etc, the

early world production forecasts of a 15m tonne

drop are certainly possible but there are many 

blanks to fill in yet. Whatever the outcome, huge

stocks will mean adequate supplies.

 Where are those large wheat stocks? While

Europe clearly has lower than usual stocks to start

2012/13, the top exporter, the US remains awash with

23.5m tonnes. The world’s largest wheat consumer 

and producer, China, is meanwhile estimated to hold

about 61.5m tonnes going into 2012/13 – 57% more

 than in 2008/09, although the true size and quality 

of these reserves is questioned by many. Kazakhstan

may struggle to clear it s large 2011/12 wheat surpluswith just three months of the season to go. Although

much of this is believed to be lower quality, it can

compete in feedgrain marketx. India is loosening

wheat export policy and while it may sow less next

year, it could still end up with even bigger supplies as

 this season’s record 87m tonne crop leaves record

carryover stocks of over 18m tonnes.

Markets have also been enlivened over the pastfew months by heavier demand for wheat from the

Middle East and North Africa. Some of this reflects

politics – Iran’s nuclear standoff and its accompanying

 threat of conflict and Gulf shipping disruption, the

 turmoil in Syria, reminding us that the Arab spring

has opened a pandora’s box of regional risk and a

need for these countries to remain well-stocked on

basic foodstuffs. Iran is also one of the world’s biggest

wheat consumers and its own crop has fallen short

 this season. A drought in Morocco which could be

spreading to half the North African Maghreb region,

could also lead to sustained higher demand for wheat

from the EU and other suppliers.

Grain merchants/shippers have recently been

switching export sourcing of wheat and maize away 

from the Black Sea region – mainly Ukraine and Russia

 – where a combination of recent Arctic weather 

and adverse 2012 crop outlooks has hampered

grain movement and made farmers reluctant tosell, starving export ports of grain and pushing their 

prices up. Some of this business is going to EU & US

exporters but they are having to fight for business still

with Canada, Australia and Argentina and the Black 

Sea exporters are expected to make a comeback 

soon to clear remaining stocks as their transport

systems thaw. This competition for import custom

should keep could wheat prices under control.

Overall, there is nothing on the supply side to

 justify driving wheat prices sharply higher at the

moment and, if EU crops do better than expected

again, maybe reason for further declines. Canada, the

USA and Australia together might even improve the

quality wheat supply, helping to keep the high gr ade

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COMMODITIES

Although the USDA has cut its world soya

crushing estimate by 2.6m tonnes (Brazil -1m,

China and EU both -500,000 tonnes), global

ending stocks of soyabeans for September 2012

are now seen 3m tonnes lower than before at

57.3m tonnes. This is not a historically tight fi gure

like that of maize but it does point up the need

for a bigger US soyabean crop than that now

indicated by the USDA. Based on 75m sown

acres, this suggests about 88/89m tonnes versus

last year’s 83.2m. Until t hat crop is planted, up and

running, the possibility of further soya price rises

cannot be ruled out, especially if the Latin crops

shrink further. As in the maize market, soya is alsosupported by strong demand from China. This

is expected to continue as China’s own oilseed

crops are shrinking due to farmers planting

more maize. China also likes to have plenty of 

forward cover and is probably concerned about

 the adequacy of both South American and US

supplies going forward. However the Latin

Americans did start 2011/12 (last September)

with much larger than usual stocks whose heavy 

autumn/winter export sale put the US export

programme behind and created a little slack in

 this market. Also, with two thirds of Brazil’s crop

now harvested and Argentine combining just

starti ng, these exporters will be accelerating sales

in coming months, helping to keep soyabean and

meal prices under control for the time being.

Chinese officials meanwhile signal growing

longer term protein import needs, rising demand

for soyabean/rapeseed/product imports amidexpected lower domestic crops for a second year 

running and growing livestock/feed demand. The

USDA’s recent ‘baseline’ projections were also

bullish for China, viewing a rise in its imports of 

almost 60% over 10 years as it switches more

of its own soya crop land to maize production.

Even with the 2011/12 expansion above (the

main factor in growth of global soya crush), world

 total soyabean processing is only expected to

increase by 6m tonnes in 2011/12 compared with

11.5m last season and over 16m in 2009/10. That

 takes some of the pressure off smaller new crop

soya supplies, as does the near 69m tonnes of 

soyabean stocks with which the season started

(against 60m last year and 43m in 2010/11). How

low these stocks might go in 2012 will not be

clear until the Lat-Am crop situation clarifies. In

 the meantime, $13/14 beans may be buying some

extra US soya acres beyond the USDA’s recent75m acre (30.35m ha) forecast, so the crop there

could turn out a bit bigger after all.

KEY FACTORS IN THE

 MONTHS AHEAD 

• How low will South America’s soyabean

crops end up?

• How much land will the US plant to soyabeans

 this spring – 75m, 76m acres or more?

• Chinese consumption and timing of imports

• EU/CIS rapeseed plantings - up or down

for 2012?

be moving heavily into the red amid the recent

rise in corn costs and an end to government

subsidies. Although weekly ethanol output still

exceeds year-ago levels and the USDA target

pace, it has begun to flag, stocks are building up

and with talk of higher than expected ethanol

yields from last year’s better quality crop, some

 think corn demand in this sector could actually 

drop 5%.

US maize exports could also be reduced if 

Ukraine sows as much maize as some recent

forecasts (4.5/5m ha) and achieves anything like

last year’s big yields – maybe supplying 5m to

10m tonnes more. Even at the low end of cropforecasts, Latin America will also have plenty to

export in coming months.

 With plantings soon to commence in the

northern hemisphere, the IGC forecast global

maize area for 2012/13 up 0.6% to a record 167m

ha. World barley sowings are also seen rising by 

8% from last year’s low level, especially spring

barley after losses to winter crops.

KEY FACTORS IN THE

 MONTHS AHEAD

• Markets still need to know the final impact of 

drought on Argentine and Brazilian maize crops

• China’s maize ‘deficit’ – it could be millions of 

 tonnes more – or less than analysts claim – a big

swing factor in global import demand, ending

stocks and prices.

• The US crop is being planted record early in

some states – that could mean more acresbut just how many more – and what impact

on yields?

• Ukraine is sowing much more maize this year 

and will compete with the US and Argentina

for export trade – bearish for prices

• Global economic problems continue to erode

consumer confidence but so far, it seems

 the potential impact on meat, feed and grain

demand might have been exaggerated.

• Speculative activity in commodities – are the

funds pulling out of ‘agric’ futures? Or squaring

 their books for the next wave of investment?

Oilmeals - soyabean stocks willdrop, maybe pushing prices up

The less welcome news this month is for 

protein consumers as the latest LatinAmerican soya crop figures from

 the USDA slide by another 6.4m

 tonnes. These are near the bottom

end of the recent range of analyses

from local South American experts,

officials, visiting trade observers etc,

reappraising the effects of drought in

December and January (lingering on

in even as we go to press in some

parts of both Brazil and Argentina). The implied

 tighter Lat-Am supply has helped propel soya

prices even higher during March when the US

markets reached their highest levels for six month.

bu (about $256/tonne) for many months now.

 Just before its monthly supply/demand updates,

 the USDA also issued annual projections in its

‘baseline’ (budget calculations) and its Outlook 

Forum meetings which suggest a US maize crop

 this year in the region of 350/360m tonnes. This

assumes the forecast 94m acres (38m ha) is all

planted on time and gets normal weather. With

current unusually warm conditions (and assuming

no repeats of the rain delays of the past two years)

some US crop pundits are talking of an unusually 

early start to planting that might boost the total

 to as much as 100m acres. To many others, that

seems a bit fanciful. Yet with implied bumper yieldsfrom an early star t, even 94m acres could produce

a US crop this summer big enough to double

 the country’s ending stocks (by September 2013)

 to over 40m tonnes. That would take much of 

 the steam out of maize prices (and via their feed

link, dampen wheat prices too). Timely sowing

might also mean an early harvest. That would take

pressure off tight old crop stocks too.

 What could still drive up maize prices, though,

is China’s potential reappearance as a major maize

importer. While the USDA figures imply China

might just about meet its estimated 191m tonne

maize consumption from domestic output, other 

sources (some Chinese officials as well as western

 trade experts) think the crop there will fall short by 

as much as 20/22m tonnes. Maize prices in China

have reached record levels recently and reserve

stocks bought from farmers are less than a tenth

of last year’s levels, leaving it with limited tools tocool the market at a time when it wants to continue

expanding livestock herds and meat consumption.

Bigger imports are not only an obvious solution but

economically feasible, even after shipping costs. China

has already bought about 3.7m tonnes of maize from

 the USA compared with a few hundred tonnes this

 time last year. However, it is also discussing some

big maize deals with Argentine suppliers as well as

supplementing its feed needs with a lot of Australian

wheat imports. The USDA is not getting too excited

about China yet, on paper at least, keeping its forecast

for China’s total maize imports at 4m tonnes. If that

rises sharply, though, it could squeeze US old-crop

supplies and get prices rising sharply again. China, of 

course, knows it can have this impact so, rather than

 jack up the cost of its future imports, it may well try 

 to delay buying until a (hopefully) larger US new crop

arrives to cool thing down, or at least continue to

spread its imports over other suppliers and other 

grains. It can also use more of its own larger 2011/12

wheat crop for another 2.5m tonnes of animal feed.

US ethanol plants were recently reported to

Gn&feed mnG tenooGy38 | march - pril 2012

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