global warming & global climate change (gcc) forest service video
Post on 20-Dec-2015
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TRANSCRIPT
Some questions…
Are global temperatures rising? If not…no worries, but there’s lots of
explaining to do if yes…
Some questions…
Are global temperatures rising?Why are temperatures rising?
Natural and/or Anthropogenic?What difference does it make?
Some questions…
Are global temperatures rising?Why are temperatures rising?What are the effects?
Due to increasing gasses? Due to increasing temperature?
Some questions…
Are global temperatures rising?Why are temperatures rising?What are effects?What should we do?
Nothing “Adapt” “Fix”
Reduce emissionsTake greenhouse gasses out of atmosphere
Are global temperatures rising?
Trends in global temperaturesPast, present, future
Other evidence of global temp risePhysical, biological
Temperatures are still increasing
http://www.globalwarmingart.com
2007: 0.7
Other evidence of global temp rise
Physical Ocean temperature increase Sea level rise Increase in higher intensity hurricanes Snow/ice/frozen ground decrease
Biological Natural events happening earlier
Flowering, nesting, migration Pole-ward spread of tropical diseases Loss of biodiversity
Hurricane intensity has increased
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/images/NA-AI172_STORMS_20060316193751.gif
Snow and ice is melting
http://www.koshland-science-museum.org/exhibitgcc/intro01.jsp
1928 1979 2003South Cascade Glacier, WA
Biological Evidence Spring events happening earlier
Earlier greening up (~9 days earlier than 1982) Earlier migration, nesting, flowering
Species ranges changing Pika up/off mountains Mosquitos spreading poleward/upward
Extinctions Golden Toad
Why are temperatures rising?
Two possibilities:Natural
increasing energy inputincreasing greenhouse gasses
AnthropogenicIncreasing greenhouse gasses
Natural causes of global temp rise
Change in Sun’s output Change in Earth’s orbit Change in Volcanism
Not supported by data (less than 5% chance according to IPCC).
Anthropogenic causes of global temperature rise
Greater Green House Gas emissions Fossil fuel and biomass burning Agriculture (rice paddies, cattle, fertilizers, etc.)
Carbon sinks have decreased Deforestation
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/
Trends in greenhouse gases
The cause of methane leveling off is likely related to several factors, including changes in emissions related to changes in the former Soviet Union and the short lifetime of methane (8-9 years)
Deforestation
Deforestation removes the carbon-absorbing trees, releases the carbon when the trees are burned, and then allows erosion of the soil so that forests may not return.
What are effects of global warming?
Human healthHeat-related illnessesSpread of tropical diseases
Other direct effects on humansSea level rise, agriculture, wildfires,
hurricanes, drought, floods, water scarcity Environmental
Loss of biodiversity, desertification
List of health effects
Food and water borne diseases Vector borne diseases Natural disasters (storms, floods, heat waves) Malnutrition Changes in air pollution and aeroallergen
levels Altered transmission of other infectious
diseases More…
http://www.who.int/globalchange/climate/summary/en/index6.html
List of health effects (cont)
Effects on food production via climatic influences on plant pests and diseases
Drought and famine Population displacement due to natural
disasters, crop failure, water shortages, sea level rise
Destruction of health infrastructure in natural disasters
Conflict over natural resources Direct impacts of heat and cold (morbidity).
http://www.who.int/globalchange/climate/summary/en/index6.html
“It estimated that climate change contributes to 150,000 deaths and 5 million illnesses each year.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/16/AR2005111602197.html
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Recent_Sea_Level_Rise_png
http://www.globalwarmingart.com
Loss of biodiversity
The golden toad of Costa Rica is now believed to be extinct. Likely one of the first creatures whose extinction can be definitively blamed on global warming.
http://www.globalwarmingart.com
Negative Feedback Loops
Increasing CO2 will increase oceanic algae which will increase absorption of CO2 out of atmosphere, thus decreasing CO2.
Increase in CO2 will stimulate plant growth thus absorption of CO2 out of the atmosphere, thus decreasing CO2.
Negative Feedback Loops
Increased warming will increase precipitation in polar regions, will increase snow pack, thus reflectance of solar energy back to space, thus less warming.
Increase warming will result in more evaporation, more clouds, more reflectance, less warming.
Positive Feedback Loops
Increase warming will result in more evaporation, more water vapor in air and greater greenhouse effect from water vapor, thus more heating.
Increase warming will melt permafrost, releasing methane, thus increase warming.
Positive Feedback Loops
Increase warming will decrease snowpack and ice decreases reflectance, so increase warming.
Warmer temperatures cause greater use of air conditioners thus increasing fossil fuel burning and greenhouse gas emissions, thus warmer temperatures
What should we do
Nothing: we’re not sure enough“Adapt”: let’s plan for the changes“Fix”: let’s do something about it
Reduce emissionsTake greenhouse gasses out of atmosphere
We should “adapt”
Move back from coasts, or build structures that can hold back water or allow city to rise.
Vaccinate for new diseases Alter the way we store water Alter agricultural practices Etc.
We should “fix” the problem by reducing emissions
Energy Supply: improve efficiency; switch to nuclear and/or renewable energy (solar, wind, geothermal, hydropower, etc.); combined heat and power; early applications of CO2 capture and storage
Transport: More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; alternative energy vehicles; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; cycling, walking; land-use planning
Buildings: Efficient lighting; efficient appliances and air conditioning; improved insulation; solar heating and cooling; alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and appliances
We should “fix” the problem more directly
Carbon (and other gas) sequestration Increase Earth’s albedo Earth shading
http
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.ch/
pres
ent/g
raph
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Carbon SequestrationSchematic diagram of possible CCS systems
SRCCS Figure TS-1
Cop
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The
New
Yor
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imes
Com
pany
Space mirrors Sulfur particles Clouds Reflective plastic Add Iron to ocean
for more algae growth
What can I do?
Easy (learn, inform, vote, be more efficient, etc.) Moderate difficulty (switch energy, autos,
appliances, become more politically active, etc.) Difficult (become a scientist, technologist,
politician, etc. to directly help solve the problem)
Relevant websites
Read the reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://www.ipcc.ch/)
NOAA’s FAQs on global warming (http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html)
Things you can do– (http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/environment/)– http://www.stopglobalwarming.org/sgw_actionitems.asp– http://epa.gov/climatechange/kids/difference.html– http://www.sierraclub.org/globalwarming/tenthings/– http://www.eartheasy.com/article_global_warming.htm– http://www.climatecrisis.net/takeaction/whatyoucando/
Self-quiz questions
What is global warming? What are the major greenhouse gasses and
their sources? What is the most likely cause of global
warming? What are some negative and positive
feedback loops operating in global warming? What are the effects of global warming? What is being done about global warming?
REVIEW
Global warming is an upward trend in global temperatures largely due to human activities.
Major greenhouse gasses are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Know their sources.
Know effects of global warming. Know what is being done: Kyoto Protocol etc.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vdYa6G1Mr0 time capsule
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snPdEl0Duoo blue man group
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zORv8wwiadQ grid Whole thing here:
http://www.wonderingmind42.com/
Global
Climate
Change
Take
Action:
Yes
Take
Action:
No
GCC False
•Cost•Global economic depression
GCC True
Cost Catastrophes:•Economic•Political•Social•Environmental•Health
Energy sector: currently possible Improved supply and distribution
efficiency Fuel switching from coal to gas Nuclear power Renewable heat and power (hydropower,
solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy) Combined heat and power Early applications of Carbon Capture and
Storage (CCS, e.g. storage of removed CO2 from natural gas)
Energy sector: by 2030 CCS for gas, biomass and coal-fired
electricity generating facilities Advanced nuclear power Advanced renewable energy, including
tidal and waves energy, concentrating solar, and solar PV.
Transport sector: currently possible More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles Cleaner diesel vehicles Modal shifts from road transport to rail and
public transport systems Non-motorized transport (cycling, walking) Land-use and transport planning
Transport sector: by 2030 Higher efficiency aircraft Advanced electric and hybrid vehicles with
more powerful and reliable batteries.
Building sector: currently possible Efficient lighting and daylighting More efficient electrical appliances and
heating and cooling devices Improved cook stoves, improved insulation Passive and active solar design for heating
and cooling Alternative refrigeration fluids, recovery
and recycle of fluorinated gases
Building sector: by 2030 Integrated design of commercial buildings
including technologies, such as intelligent meters that provide feedback and control
Solar PV integrated in buildings
Industry sector: currently possible More efficient end-use electrical
equipment Heat and power recovery Material recycling and substitution Control of non-CO2 gas emissions A wide array of process-specific
technologies
Industry sector: by 2030 Advanced energy efficiency CCS for cement, ammonia, and iron
manufacture Inert electrodes for aluminum manufacture
Agriculture sector: currently possible Improved crop and grazing land management to
increase soil carbon storage Restoration of cultivated peaty soils and
degraded lands Improved rice cultivation techniques and livestock
and manure management to reduce CH4 emissions
Improved nitrogen fertilizer application techniques to reduce N2O emissions
Dedicated energy crops to replace fossil fuel use Improved energy efficiency.
Forestry sector: currently possible Afforestation: planting trees where none
occurred before Reforestation Forest management Reduced deforestation Harvested wood product management Use of forestry products for bioenergy to
replace fossil fuel use
Forestry sector: by 2030 Tree species improvement to increase
biomass productivity and carbon sequestration.
Improved remote sensing technologies for analysis of vegetation/ soil carbon sequestration potential and mapping land use change
Waste mgmt sector: currently possible Landfill methane recovery Waste incineration with energy recovery Composting of organic waste Controlled waste water treatment Recycling and waste minimization
Earth’s energy balance
Solar energy coming into the Earth Solar energy leaving the Earth
Directly radiated (~17%) Depends on albedo (reflectance)
Absorbed and then re-radiated as heat
Snow and ice reflects sun’s energy (Earth’s albedo)
Jan 2004
July 2004
http://www.globalwarmingart.com
Sea ice is melting
http://www.nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20070810_index.html
Current sea ice conditions: September 25,
2007Figure 1 provides an
updated map of sea ice extent for September 25, 2007; the magenta line
shows the median September monthly extent
based on data from 1979 to 2000.
Earth’s orbital changes (Milankovitch cycles) that drive the ice age cycles.‘T’ = changes in Earth’s tilt (obliquity)‘E’ = changes in eccentricity of the orbit (due to variations in the minor axis of the ellipse)‘P’ = precession: changes in the direction of the axis tilt at a given point of the orbit. Source: Rahmstorf and Schellnhuber (2006).
Milankovitch Cycles