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Global Warming: Facts, Trends and Implications for Actionand Implications for Action

Gerhardus SchultinkProfessor of International Resource Development and

AgBio Research,MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY

IPB, Bogor. December, 2012

Soil Water Barrier Research

Predicted Climate Change impacts

• Rising sea levels – global models (50-90 cm in 100 years)

• Flood risks (Coastal Zones and Cities)( )• Intensity and distribution of hurricanes• Crop productivity los (wheat 50%, rice

17% and maize 6%, IFPRI by 2050?)• Food security (Africa and Asia)• Water scarcity (International Conflicts)

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE ON LAND RESOURCE PRODUCTIVITY IMPACTS

• Use intensity and degradation of natural resources exceeds physically sustainable use rates (e.g. water scarcity and land degradation – irrigation impacts)

• Environmental quality impacts increasing (water and air quality) (e g global warming)air quality) (e.g. global warming)

• Decline in food output per capita (e.g. fish, grain, meat) (increased energy “cost” / capita)

• Increase of human risk factors (environmentally-induced health risks, water-borne diseases (e.g. ( gcholera, typhoid, malaria) e.g. cancer rates, pulmonary risks)

Combined Annual Grain Exports - Argentina, Australia, Canada, European Union, United States – for the Period 1960-97

Supply and Demand Questions:

• Which Natural Resources are finite (non-renewable)?

• Which are (semi) renewable? Why?• How to reduce demand?How to reduce demand?• What land use is sustainable?• Where does population control fit in? (R.I.)• What do countries do about it? (UN

conferences)• What are sustainable population numbers?

(location, country, region, global)

EXCESS RESOURCE DEMAND

REDUCED RESOURCE ENDOWMENT AND INCREASED

ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS AND

UNSUSTAINABLE POPULATION GROWTH AND RESOURCE DEPLETION RATES

PRODUCTIVITY CONSTRAINTS

NATURAL RESOURCE BASE DEGRADATION

DECLINING RESOURCE PRODUCTION CAPACITY AND

IMPACTS ON GNP, COMMODITY PRICES AND SOCIAL EQUITY

CAPACITY AND EFFICIENCY

DECLINING INCOME AND SAVINGS RATES

DECLINING

DETERIORATION OF PHYSICAL AND SERVICE INFRASTRUCTURE

CYCLIC DECLINE OF QUALITY OF LIFE AND INCREASED SECURITY RISK

Figure 1 – Impacts of Environmental Stress on Natural Resource Production Capacity and Social Equity

Gradual change Cyclic change

PURCHASES AND INVESTMENTS

CAPITAL DEFICIENCY

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“

Global Water Scarcities

“70% of all freshwater withdrawals are used for food production.”

“Less than 60% of all the water used for the water used for irrigation is effectively consumed by crops.”

Calzadilla, Rehdanz, and Tol, 2010Science p. 305

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GLOBAL WARMING RESEARCH in ANTARCTICA

(what environment ?)( )

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Antarctica – a Huge Continent About 7 times Indonesia and 2 times Australia

Antarctic Treaty

A t th t id f f d f i tifiA system that provides for freedom of scientific investigation and promotion of international

cooperation by exchange of information, personnel and scientific results

• To set aside disputes over territorial sovereignty

• To demilitarize Antarctica• To promote international scientific• To promote international scientific

cooperation

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ANTARCTICA:KEY FEATURES

• 90% of world’s fresh water - melting ice (cap about 1.6 km average) it would raise global sea level by 70m L d d 89 6C (• Lowest temperature ever recorded: -89.6C (-129.3F)

• Greatest average elevation of any continent: 2300m vs 720m for Nth Am.

• No indigenous peoples - winter population about 1200 (summer about 5000 plus)

• No “government”; not “owned” by anyone

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Flow Flow complexitycomplexitycomplexitycomplexityanalysisanalysis

Surface Altimetry

LAKE VOSTOKLAKE VOSTOK

Comparisons Among Lakes(Same Scale)

Lake Vostok

• Large - 10,000 square kilometers• Deep - Up to 500 meters• Old Perhaps 25 million years• Old - Perhaps 25 million years• Isolated - Under 4 kilometers of ice• Remote - East Antarctica

N t l Ab t 80 th l k• Not alone - About 80 other lakes

Vostok:Ice Core Drilling g& Lake Vostok

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Reasons for Interest in Lake Vostok

• Unique forms of life in an extreme habitat• Geochemical characteristics

G l i hi t f A t ti• Geologic history of Antarctica• Record of early climate in sediments• Test-bed for unmanned, planetary missions

WestGondwanaGondwana

East Gondwana

•180 Ma East and West Gondwana formed•130 Ma The South Atlantic started to open and India started to separate from Antarctica

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Affect on global biodiversity patterns

Opening of Drake Passage between South America andOpening of Drake Passage between South America and Antarctica, about 35 Ma lead to the development of a circum polar current, the cooling of Antarctica and the development of the ice sheet.

Recent history comes from ice sheet

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Max extent of Antarctic Ice sheet in last glacial maxima, 15 000 years ago

GlobalGlobal Climate Change Impact

Global Temperature Change60 Metres of sea level rise

7 Metres

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Wordie Ice Shelf

Antarctica

“A window to our past, andA bridge to our future”

President Bill Clinton

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Area on Greenland with snowmelt. Graph credit: Konrad Steffen, Univ. Colorado

China has the largest fossil fuel emissions todayChina has the largest fossil fuel emissions today. However, climate change is driven by cumulative emissions, so developed nations, especially the U.S., have greatest responsibility.

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Global Water Scarcity (plus Global Warming):

One of the most pressing challenges: availability of fresh water for food and fiber production and industrial and domestic uses

Human population growth and the distribution of population centers stress water resources worldwidepopulation centers stress water resources worldwide. Continued population growth, especially the location of population centers, along with variations in the hydrologic cycle related to climate change will continue to stress global water resources

Desertification rates are increasing in China and Northern Africa. SWRT can begin shrinking these expanding deserts

Current global water usage averages about70% for food and fiber production, 20% for industrial

ti iti d 10% f i i l d d tiactivities, and 10% for municipal and domestic consumption.

Soil texture (particle size) largely determines soil moisture holding capacityg p y

Water retention barriers in sand soils greatly reduce groundwater contamination by increasing residence time in the root zone, providing greater plant uptake and greater microbial decontaminationplant uptake and greater microbial decontamination (bioremediation)

How to reduce the globalHow to reduce the global warming impact on crop

productivity ?

GENERAL CROP YIELD EQUATION

ya ETa(1 - ⎯ ) = ky ( 1 - ⎯ )

ym Etm

where: ya = actual harvested crop yieldi h t d i ldym = maximum harvested crop yield

ky = genetically determined yield response factorETa = actual evapotranspirationETm = maximum evapotranspiration

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EXAMPLE:EXAMPLE: Subsurface Water Retention Technologies Subsurface Water Retention Technologies --Major Increases in Biomass for Biofuels in MichiganMajor Increases in Biomass for Biofuels in Michigan

Michigan has approximately 1.2 million acres of marginal sandy soils –potentially highly productive for generating cellulosic biomass forbiofuels. Currently switchgrass biomass production on marginal soilsranges between 0.5 to 1.0 T/a.

Subsurface water retention barriers could increase biomassproduction to at least 6 T/a without irrigation or possibly 10 T/aannually with optimal water and nutrient management practices.Therefore, subsoil water retention barrier technologies could increasecellulose biomass on marginal soils of Michigan by 6 to 20‐fold forethanol production Studies in Minnesota have reported highethanol production. Studies in Minnesota have reported highswitchgrass root biomass production systems increase long‐term soilcarbon sequestration while reducing groundwater contamination.

Biofuels - Leading Alternative to Fossil Fuels

• Domestic production by many countries (e.g. Brazil – Ethanol)• Minimal changes retail distribution and end-use technologies• Partial response to global climate change• Potential to improve rural development• Most rapidly for corn ethanol (subsidies) – especially US• Corn ethanol - modest contribution to climate change goals • Marginally positive net energy balance – competing food source• Long-run consequences - food and environmental quality• Short run - gasoline supply and demand are inelastic - buffer on prices• Large-scale production of new types of crops and cellulosic biomass• Structural change in agriculture (sources, levels, farm incomes)• Confluence of agricultural, environmental, energy policies

G t i t t d i it ti• Government, private sector and university cooperation• Potential for production (SWRT) and conversion technologies

Product 1994 2003 2004 2005 2006 200718 447 24 225 50 928 29 712

Indonesia Fruit Imports (in tons)Import Substitution Options

18,447 24,225 50,928 29,712 26,151.3 23,566.7Mandarins 8,851 31,279 43,279 53,659 68,535.4 89,125.5Grapes 4,792 14,469 28,715 25,330 26,365.6 27,395.3Apples 31,428 71,390 114,031 126,973 122,011.4 145,301.6Pears 7,743 32,691 74,277 80,395 80,657.7 94,518.6Apricots 16 109 2 5 2.6 2.1Cherries 20 100 58 41 65.6 20.6Peaches 32 152 162 108 126.9 70.8Plums 133 210 208 215 185 8 199 5185.8 199.5Strawberries 43 597 229 241 191.3 129.0Kiwifruit 0 1,125 629 626 580.9 898.3Avocados 16 43 30 19 19.3 17.6Mango 8 348 689 869 966.3 1088.2Lemon 127 95 286 562 636.0 785.4Grapefruit 150 64 352 350 657.3 302.1Water melon 140 39 148 668 441.8 921.2Other melon 0 142 656 171 207.3 111.0 Other berries 1 749 98 23 15.2 33.0Durian 432 3,099 11,087 11,351 16,334.2 23,149.0Other Tropical Fruit

281 18,378 34,073 42,27547,067.6 55,504.6

Total 72,661 199,304 359,935 373,594 391,219.6 463,140.1

RESULTS of SWRT Technology:

Successful, economical, and environmentally sustainable subsurface asphalt water retention barriers installed at South Haven, MI produced:

Vegetable yields on sand soils increased during the first yearfollowing installation of the asphalt water retentionbarrier:

Cabbage yields increased 200% (292 cwt/a)Potato yields increased 152% (329 cwt/a)Cucumber yields increased 200% (228 cwt/a)

Product prices for these extraordinary yields provided profitswhich enabled the farmer to pay the full costs of thesubsurface water retention barrier during the first 2 yearsafter installation of the water retention barrier.

Soil Surface

CONCEPTUAL PROFILE NEW WATER AND NUTRIENT RETENTION TECHNOLOGY

A

AA

A

A A

A A A

ABAB AB AB

B B

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Conclusions for CEPEM‐based SWRT for the Globe:

Subsoil water retention technology (SWRT) is a revolutionary technology for increasing  water use efficiencies by as much as 20‐fold.

The SWRT technology increases vegetable and food crop production by 50 to 400% while reducing soil erosion, management inputs and environmental  contamination of groundwater.contamination of groundwater.

Water barriers reduced supplemental irrigation requirements 58% due to reductions  n water and nutrient percolation through soil depths below the root zone.

W t b i i d il f 5 t t i d i ld f 14 f it dWater barriers in sandy soils of 5 states increased yields of 14 fruits and vegetables from 96 to 180%  with irrigation water savings ranging from 40 to 60%.

1. Percentage of fine sand2. Long term weather records

Ten criteria for identifying soil type and best depth of water barrier

3. Maximum rainfall rates at 30 and 50 years.4. Soil series and depth to textural change5. Cropping rotations6. Best management practices7. Plant rooting depths8 Supplemental irrigation available8. Supplemental irrigation available9. Tree species in agroforestry10. SALUS: Systems Approach to Land Use 

Sustainability computer model for identifying barrier depth, water savings and estimated yields  http://www.salusmodel.net

Unrealized Production PotentialUnrealized Production PotentialP

MAXIMUM NET SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS

CURRENT BENEFITS

UNREALIZED PRODUCTION

POTENTIAL

PUBLIC

MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE LAND USE

CURRENT LAND USE

BENEFI LAND USETS

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – PLANNING CYCLE

Unrealized production potentialUnrealized production potential

•• Theoretical differenceTheoretical difference that may be realized if that may be realized if current land use is changes to current land use is changes to ““higher and higher and betterbetter”” sustainable land usesustainable land useC i AdC i Ad f d if d i•• Comparative AdvantageComparative Advantage of production of production opportunitiesopportunities

•• Quantitative / Qualitative indicatorsQuantitative / Qualitative indicators in in selecting economic development opportunitiesselecting economic development opportunities

•• ProvidesProvides spatial and temporal analytical spatial and temporal analytical frameworkframework for development planningfor development planning

Why improve water holding capacities of marginal sandy and other highly permeable soils?

Current droughts; all plants experience frequent periods of drought

Converting marginal CRP land into sustainable agricultural land

Reduce land competition for food and cellulosic biomass production

Reduce nitrogen fertilizer costs

Overcome growing global food and energy demands

Reduce water shortages in major groundwater supplies

Decrease concentrations of nitrates and pesticides in groundwaterp g

Develop new technologies that improve soil water holding capacities

Produce food for the 9 billion people by 2050

Global Water Shortages:

Reports by water industries predict that during the next two decades water availability will diminish to 40% below leveldecades water availability will diminish to 40% below level needed to sustain global populations.

World-wide water requirements are expected to increase from 4.5 trillion cubic meters, today, to 6.9 trillion cubic meters by 2030 and exceed existing reliable water supplies.

In the U.S. Depths of deep water reservoirs are limiting irrigation of numerous agricultural regions including the Ogallala Aquifer, from Canada to the High Plains of West Texas and along arid and semiarid regions of the Southwest.

High quality water, the world’s most finite critical resource, ensures economic, environmental, political and social stability.

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Subsurface water retention technology (SWRT)Subsurface water retention technology (SWRT)is a

revolutionary water conservation approachfor increasing water use efficiency andcrop productivity, significantly reducing

deep leaching and plant drought stresseswhile reducing supplemental

irrigation requirements.

SWRT:    19 ‐ 22%Control:   8 ‐ 10%

1.5 to 3.0 milpolyethylenemembranes

14”

22”2:1

Rear view with rolls of PE membranes positioned for installation.

Rolls of polyethylene (PE) membranes follow transfer tubeslocated directly th h th ithrough the primary standard connectedto membrane Installation deviceMID shoe.

PE film exiting thePE film exiting theU‐shaped exit atthe back of the MIDshoe.

Excavated water and nutrient saving membrane, 12” wide x 6” deep, installed at

soil depth of 14” from base to soil surface.

6 in

12 in wide

deep

12-inch width of bowl-shaped trough of PE membrane across research field plots. Roots in photo are from previous mature rye

cover crop.

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SWRT:    19 ‐ 22%Control:   8 ‐ 10%

1.5 to 3.0 milpolyethylenemembranes

14”

22”2:1

SWRT membranes retained nearly twice the volumetric soil waterSWRT membranes retained nearly twice the volumetric soil water contents at 15 cm (Shallow) and 30 cm (Deep) in sand soils planted to corn with 30” between-row and 6” in-row spacing for 54,450 plants per acre, July 24-27, 2012.

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Pictures: SWRT vs. Control15 Inch Rows – June 29, 2012

WR

T P

lot o

orn

15

15 in

SW

5 Inch Control pplot of

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Pictures: SWRT vs. Control15 Inch Rows – June 29, 2012

SW

RT

Plo

t15

in 15 Inch CoIrrigated SWRT Membranes Irrigatedontrol

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gControlNo SWRTMembranes

Irrigatedcorn onSWRTmembranesmembranes

Three rows of non irrigatedno SWRT membranes alongplot edges.

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Table 1. Corn yields of 353 bushels per acre were 192% greater on Irrigated SWRT water saving membranes than on irrigated controls 184 bushels/acre without SWRT membranes. Cucumber yields were 146% greater on irrigated SWRT water saving membranes than irrigated controls without SWRT membranes.

TreatmentCorn

15 inch rowsBushels per a.

Corn30 inch rowsBushels per a.

Cucumbers

Kg per acre

g

Control, no membranes 184 (46)* 195 (31)  19,958 

Subsurface membranes 353 (26) 269 (20) 29 040membranes 353 (26) 269 (20) 29,040

*Denotes standard deviations from the mean.

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Potential Transport Distances for Ultra‐High Production of Biomass Production in Michigan

Prepared for Bruce Dalepby Alvin Smucker 

March 2012

Ultra‐high  Acres needed for One way trip transportcellulosic biomass         500 tons biomass/d to 500 T/d biomasscrop yields – Tons/a for 365 days each year production facility

Switchgrass: 12 T/a/y 15,208 acres 11.9 miles

Corn: 49 T/a/y (entire) 3,725 acres 2.9 miles

*Corn:  34 T/a/y (stalks) 5,368 acres 4.2 miles

# Corn: 32.5 T/a/yr (stalks)     7,449 acres 11.6 miles

*Assuming 15 tons kept on land for improving soil quality# Assuming 1/3 biomass was harvested and removed as corn grain 103

SWRT Retains Rainwater Where it Falls It is a 

Long-term Green Initiative that

Enhances Annual Cellulosic and Food Productionb 50 t 200%by 50 to 200%

HOW?

By Storing Soil Water and Nutrient y gResources in the Root Zone of Plants

Summary and Potential for 

Subsurface Water Retention Technology (SWRT)  

Commercial implement for installing four subsurface water retention membranes has been completed and field tested.

Root zone soil water retention has been doubled in sand soilsRoot zone soil water retention has been doubled in sand soils.

Water saving technology is being tested in Michigan, Texas, Turkey with planned installations in Arizona, Florida, Missouri and Iraq.

SWRT d i t d t t i t i d tSWRT and associated strategic management are poised to at least double cellulosic biomass and grain production across the USA and globally.