global volcano disaster resilience. an integrated framework demonstration of the global disaster...
DESCRIPTION
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS are awesome manifestations of heat flowing as a result of mantle hot spots (e.g., Hawaii and Iceland) or explosive eruptions in subduction zones (e.g., the Pacific Rim). LESSON: THE KNOWLEDGE AND TIMING OF ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS IS VITAL. The people who know: 1) what hazards to expect (e.g., vertical ash plume, lateral blast, lava flow, lahar), 2) where and when they will happen, and 3) what they should (and should not) do to prepare for them will survive. The people who have timely, realistic, advance information that facilitates reduction of vulnerabilities, and hence the risks associated with the vertical ash plume, pyroclastic flows, tephra, lava flows, and lahars will survive. The people who have timely, accurate, advance information that facilitates evacuation to get our of harm’s way of pyroclastic flows, lava flows, and lahars will survive. The International Community provides millions to billions of dollars in relief to help “pick up the pieces, ” but this strategy is not enough by itself to ensure earthquake disaster resilience. THE CHALLENGE: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE KINDS OF TURNING POINTS NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE. Presentation courtesy of Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster ReductionTRANSCRIPT
THE GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORY MODEL:
AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
FRAMEWORK 1A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-DISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE
ON GLOBAL DISASTERS
AND DISASTER RESILIENCE
1. SCOPEFROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS
TO A DISASTER
TO
DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES
THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF
“THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES” OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
A DISASTER is ---
--- the set of failures that occur when the continuums of: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., volcanic eruptions, floods, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the community is not ready.
THREE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS
• PEOPLE (7+ Billion and counting)
• COMMUNITIES• RECURRING EVENTS
(AKA Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)
PEOPLE = INNOVATION PEOPLE = INNOVATION
200 NATIONS AND 7+
BILLION PEOPLE
200 NATIONS AND 7+
BILLION PEOPLE
NORTH AMERICA
NORTH AMERICA
CARIBBEAN BASIN
CARIBBEAN BASIN
SUB-SAHARAAFRICA
SUB-SAHARAAFRICA
MEDITER-RANEAN
MEDITER-RANEAN
ISLAND NATIONS ISLAND NATIONS
ASIA ASIA
SOUTHAMERICASOUTH
AMERICA
EUROPEEUROPE
INTERSECTION OF THESE CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE
SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL CAUSE A DISASTER,
AND SOME WON’T
THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM
• 7 + BILLION (DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT
THE WORLD)
LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: A CONTINUUM OF INNOVATION NEVER ENDS
LIKE A CHAIN: A CONTINUUM HAS WEAK LINKS TO IMPROVE
FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS
• IGNORANCE• APATHY• DISCIPLINARY
BOUNDARIES• LACK OF POLITICAL WILL
THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM: (SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE)
• GOVERNMENT• DWELLINGS• SCHOOLS• HEALTH CARE
FACILITIES• BUSINESSES• INFRA-
STRUCTURE• ETC
EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE READY FOR THE INEVITABLE
INTERSECTION THAT WILL CHALLENGE ITS STATE-OF-RESILIENCE
THE RECURRING - EVENTS CONTINUUM
• FLOODS• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS• EARTHQUAKES• DROUGHTS• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
• ETC.
RECURRING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
RECURRING EARTHQUAKES
RECURRING TROPICAL STORMS TYPHOONS, HURRICANES, AND CYCLONES
RECURRING FLOODS
RECURRING DROUGHT EPISODES
CURRENT KNOWLEDGE
IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL, EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR,
STATISTICAL, FUZZY, PROBABILISTIC, . . . AND THEORETICAL MODELS
HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND UNCERTAINTIES
FRAMEWORK 2A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-DISCIPLINARY INTEGRATION
OF KNOWLEDGE FORTHE END GAME OF
DISASTER RESILIENCE IN THE 21ST CENTURY
POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
Anticipatory Preparedness
Adoption and Implementation of Realistic Building Codes & Standards
Timely Early Warning and Evacuation
Timely Emergency Response (including Evacuation and Emergency Medical Services)
Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction
YOUR COMMUNITY
YOUR COMMUNITYDATA BASES
AND INFORMATIONDATA BASES AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
• FLOODS • SEVERE WIND
STORMS• EARTHQUAKES …
ETC
A DISASTER
CAUSES
FAILURES IN POLICIES
FAILURES IN PRACTICES
COUNTER MEASURES
• BEST POLICIES• BEST PRACTICES
DISASTER RESILIENCE
THE END GAME CHALLENGEBEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES
INNIVATIVE ACTIONS: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE PARA-DIGM SHIFTS THAT ARE NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE
BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES
WILL IDENTIFY/CLOSE KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS,
AND IDENTIFY/FIX WEAK LINKS IN THE
PEOPLE/COMMUNITY CONTINUUMS
BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL
CALL FOR INNOVATIVE USE OF TECHNOLOGY
AND STRATEGIC PLANNING
BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL
CALL FOR INNOVATIVE USE OF TECHNOLOGY
AND STRATEGIC PLANNING
THE STATE-OF-RESILIENCE WILL INCREASE EXPONEBTIALLY AS ---
a) The CAPACITY of the PEOPLE is increased, b) Physical and organizational VULNERABILITIES in the COMMUNITY are eliminated, and c) Each people-community-hazard INTERSECTION is met successfully.
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
INNOVATIVE PREPAREDNESS
USE GLOBAL VOLCANIC ERUPTION DISASTER
LABORATORIES AS A BASIS FOR PREPARING FROM “A”
(Emergency Response) TO “Z” (Recovery and Reconstruction)
INNOVATIVE PREPAREDNESS
USE GLOBAL VOLCANIC ERUPTION DISASTER
LABORATORIES AS A BASIS FOR PREPARING FROM “A”
(Emergency Response) TO “Z” (Recovery and Reconstruction)
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER
RESILIENCE
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER
RESILIENCE
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR
VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
• FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS
• MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WINDS)
• WARNING SYSTEMS
• FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS
• MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WINDS)
• WARNING SYSTEMS
• DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO
• COMPUTER MODELS OF VOLCANOES
• MAPS • DISASTER
SCENARIOS• HAZARD
ASSESSMENT • RISK
ASSESSMENT
• DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO
• COMPUTER MODELS OF VOLCANOES
• MAPS • DISASTER
SCENARIOS• HAZARD
ASSESSMENT • RISK
ASSESSMENT
MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES
.
DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
• PURPOSE• PROTECTION
• CONTROL
• AVIATION SAFETY
• PURPOSE• PROTECTION
• CONTROL
• AVIATION SAFETY
• TECHNIQUE• DESIGN ROOFS
FOR WET ASH • LAVA AND/OR
LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS
• MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION
• TECHNIQUE• DESIGN ROOFS
FOR WET ASH • LAVA AND/OR
LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS
• MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION
PROTECTION: DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH
PROTECTION: DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH
• A LOAD OF WET ASH ON A ROOF IS TEN TIMES HEAVIER THAN A LOAD OF WET SNOW.
• A LOAD OF WET ASH ON A ROOF IS TEN TIMES HEAVIER THAN A LOAD OF WET SNOW.
AVIATION SAFETY:MODELS TO AVOID VOLCANIC ASH
AVIATION SAFETY:MODELS TO AVOID VOLCANIC ASH
• JET AIRCRAFT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ENGINE FAILURE AND FREE FALL WHEN FLYING THROUGH AN ASH CLOUD.
• JET AIRCRAFT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ENGINE FAILURE AND FREE FALL WHEN FLYING THROUGH AN ASH CLOUD.
LAVA DIVERSION CHANNELS: CONTROL
LAVA DIVERSION CHANNELS: CONTROL
• LAVA FLOWS CAN NOT BE PRE-VENTED FROM OCCURRING, BUT THEY CAN BE DIVERTED AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS INTO THE OCEAN
• LAVA FLOWS CAN NOT BE PRE-VENTED FROM OCCURRING, BUT THEY CAN BE DIVERTED AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS INTO THE OCEAN
DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
• PURPOSE• COMPUTER
MODELS OF A SPECIFIC VOL-CANO, OR A SPECIFIC HAZARD (E.G., ASH DISTRIBUTION)
• PURPOSE• COMPUTER
MODELS OF A SPECIFIC VOL-CANO, OR A SPECIFIC HAZARD (E.G., ASH DISTRIBUTION)
• TECHNIQUE• REAL TIME
MONITORING• ERUPTION
HISTORY OF A VOLCANO
• TECHNIQUE• REAL TIME
MONITORING• ERUPTION
HISTORY OF A VOLCANO
EXAMPLE: COMPUTER MODELS OF SELECTED ACTIVE VOLCANOES
EXAMPLE: COMPUTER MODELS OF SELECTED ACTIVE VOLCANOES
• PRECURSORS TO EXPECT
• LIKELY EXPLOSIVENESS
• LIKELY SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS
• PRECURSORS TO EXPECT
• LIKELY EXPLOSIVENESS
• LIKELY SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS
COMPUTER MODELS: MOUNT RAINIER: LAHAR SIMULATION
LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS: CONTROL
LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS: CONTROL
• LAHARS CAN NOT BE PREVENTED FROM OCCUR-RING, BUT THEY CAN BE DIVERTED AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS.
• LAHARS CAN NOT BE PREVENTED FROM OCCUR-RING, BUT THEY CAN BE DIVERTED AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS.
DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
• PURPOSE• URBAN PLANNING
• EVACUATION
• PURPOSE• URBAN PLANNING
• EVACUATION
• TECHNIQUE• MAPS: LAVA
AND/OR LAHAR FLOW PATHS
• COMMUNITY EVACUATION PLAN
• TECHNIQUE• MAPS: LAVA
AND/OR LAHAR FLOW PATHS
• COMMUNITY EVACUATION PLAN
EXAMPLE: MOUNT MERAPI EVACUATION PLAN
• 11,000 from three districts were evacuated to schools and other designated emergency shelters.
MANY CHOSE TO EVACUATE
• Many citizens chose to evacuate, as was ordered.
• Many villagers remembered the 1994 disaster and did not want to repeat it.
MANY CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE
• Many citizens chose not to evacuate because shelters are boring and they needed to provide for livestock and tend crops.
