global steel production forecast sample
TRANSCRIPT
| Global steel production forecast
Metal Expert | Global steel production forecast | 1 |
| GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION FORECAST TILL 2024 SAMPLE
Metal Expert January 2015
Country
Saudi
T
Far East
Country CompanyPlant
Project type
Product Equipment Unit # Capacity, '000 tpy
Status Launchdate
Saudi Arabia Saudi Basic Industries
Corporation (SABIC)
Saudi Iron and Steel
(Hadeed)
newcold-rolling mill
№2 1000 plan Q4 2018
Turkey Gazi MetalGazi Metal
newcold-rolling mill
№1 350 underway February2014
Turkey Gazi MetalGazi Metal
upgradecold-rolling mill
№1 350 plan 2014
Vietnam Hoa Sen GroupHoa Sen Phu My new
cold-rolling mill
№4 200 plan June2014
India JSW Ispat Steel Ltd. Kalmeshwarnew
cold-rolling mill
№2 220 underway Q1 2014
POSCO - Maharashtra newcold-rolling mill
№1 1800 underway June2014
1200 plan Q1 2015
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Metal Expert
| Global steel production forecast
Metal Expert | Global steel production forecast | 3 |
| Steel industry: key development scenarios until 2024 Several scenarios of steel industry development over the next 10 years have been considered within the framework of our steel production forecast. As a result, we have singled out and elaborated the most probable scenario. At the same time, other scenarios have also been employed in various sections of the global manganese market research for making forecasts of Mn alloys and ore consumption. Scenario 1: Steel production grows at steady pace China accounts for half of global steel production therefore exerting the strongest influence on global steel forecast. Despite some slowdown, the country’s steel production is likely to keep growing.
Over past 4 years, China’s steel output has added 7% a year on average, while in other countries production has increased by 1.46% annually. Annual rate of steel production growth.
In China, annual steel consumption per capita is 515 kg. Considering the country’s focus on exports and the same indicator in other large countries of the region, this figure seems underestimated. In particular, at peak of production, annual steel consumption per capita was 1,227 kg in South Korea, 642 kg in Japan and 793 kg in Taiwan. Over past 4 years, this indicator has been increasing by some 6% a year. So, considering current growth rates, it may reach 700-800 kg in 10 years, which is about the same as in other countries of the region. Besides, in 2014 China boosted steel product exports. Over 9 months of 2014, the country increased longs production by 4% y-o-y, while domestic sales added just 2% and exports – as much as 62%, the country’s share in global long product trade reaching 30%. So, further
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| Global steel production forecast
| 4 | Metal Expert | Global steel production forecast
increase in global steel demand will, to some extent, keep urging a rise in production in China. Over past 14 years, the global steel production (excluding China) has been growing by the average of 1.5% per year. At this pace, in 10 years global steel production will rise to 2.5 billion tpy, up 42%. Over 2005-2014, the world’s steel output increased by 46%, so within this scenario the 10-year growth will slow down by 4 percentage points.
In 10 years global steel production will rise by 42%, with China’s share increasing to 60%. Steel production in China and the rest of the world.
Scenario 2: China’s steel production will decrease over next 5 years According to many experts, in 2015-2016 China may see a growth of steel production being replaced by a decrease. Most of large-scale infrastructure projects are completed or nearing the completion, so the level of urbanization in densely populated industrial regions is close to that in Europe, which will restrain the rates of domestic steel consumption. To a great extent, the growth of steel production in 2014 was urged by the increase in steel product exports. Taking into account a negative outlook of global demand and tight competition among suppliers, exports are unlikely to further support steel melting in China. Besides, new steelmelting capacities of some 145 million tpy are to be launched in the world (excluding China) in the next 4 years. Since global consumption (excluding China) has been growing by the average of 2.1% per year over past 10 years, steel demand is expected to rise by 110 million t over next 4 years to be fully met by new capacities.
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| Global steel production forecast
Metal Expert | Global steel production forecast | 5 |
By 2024 steel melting in China will rise by no more than 200 million t from 2014. Steel production in China and the rest of the world. .
Following a period of stagnation, China’s steel production will start growing again. Improving domestic consumption will account for most of the growth. Besides, Chinese steelmakers are likely to increase exports amid growing demand. Scenario 3: Main Within the main scenario, the global steel production is forecast to increase to 2.03 billion t over the next 10 years. The growth of steel production in China will slow much down over the next 5 years to stop by the end of the forecast period. In other countries, steel output is expected to rise by 3.1%-3.6% per year to replace part of Chinese supply in the global market. The fastest increase in production will be registered in India and Middle East. More about main scenario of steel production development in the world’s regions is given in our report.
Best regards, Artem Segen tel +38 056 370 12 07 ext 179 mob +38 097 966 73 11 skype art_se1 e-mail: [email protected] www.metalexpert-group.com
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