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TRANSCRIPT
Analyst PRESENTATION
Delivering renewableenergy insight™
Global Offshore Wind
Technology Trend
Andy Lee
18 September 2018
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Contents
▪ Offshore Wind Market Assessment
▪ Offshore Wind Turbine Technology Trend
▪ Offshore Wind Installation Technology Trend
▪ Offshore Wind O&M Technology Trend
▪ About MAKE/Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables
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Offshore Wind Market
Assessment
5 July 2018
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Global offshore wind growth
Source: MAKE
Growing momentum in China, Taiwan and the US amid subsidy wind down in Northern Europe as markets transition to competitive auctions.
Global offshore wind capacity to reach 87GW by 2026 Offshore Wind Market Assessment
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
16
+16% CAGR
2026e2025e2024e2023e2021e2020e2019e2018e
3.9
2017e
3.3
Cum.
2016
14.2
Grid
-co
nn
ecte
d c
apa
city (
GW
)
2022e
EMEAAPACAMER
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Adjusted strike prices LCOE development, 2017-2026e
Note: Strike prices adjusted to 15-year periods, taking development and
transmission costs into account.
Source: MAKE
China offshore wind market still have 9.4GW pipeline reserve before entering auction scheme. The change of incentive policy will drive offshore wind LCOE to decrease considerably.
Record-low offshore subsidy prices increase confidence in sectorOffshore Wind Market Assessment
0
50
100
150
2015 201820172016
(EUR/MWh)
Germany
Netherlands
Denmark
UK Belgium
0
20
40
60
80
100
’25e’22e’17e
(EUR/MWh)
Year
ChinaNetherlandsUKGermany
Source: MAKE, Siemens, MHI-Vestas
Offshore wind has cost down opportunities in multiple areasOffshore Wind Market Assessment
Major factors for LCOE reduction
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Offshore Wind Turbine
Technology Trend
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7
1
9
10
5
0
2
6
4
8
20122010 2011 2015 Single
preferred
orders
20162014 20172013
3 2.7
Total orders
(GW)
7.3
1.6
3.2
1.5
3.4
1.2
3.0
0.4
2.0
0.2
1.3
0.20.20.2
1.9
0.2
2.4
Offshore wind turbine orders, globally, 2000-2017
Order intake is starting to pick up in China
Source: MAKE
Offshore Wind Turbine Technology Trend
APAC USEurope Globally
Average APAC order size Average US order sizeAverage European order size
650
450
500
550
600
400
350
300
250
0
50
100
150
200
Average order
size (MW)
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Offshore turbine portfolio, Europe
Source: MAKE
Offshore turbine portfolio, APAC
Source: MAKE
Next generation turbines to exceed 15MW ratingsOffshore Wind Turbine Technology Trend
Senvion
SGRE
Adwen
GE MHI Vestas
Next generation
Bidding Future upratingsUpgrades
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Ro
tor
dia
me
ter
(m)
MW rating Next generationBidding
Hitachi
Sinovel
Doosan
United Power
XEMC
SEwind
MingYang
Goldwind
GE
Envision
CSIC
TYHI
DEC
Hyosung
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
MW RatingR
oto
r d
iam
ete
r (m
)
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Turbine rating, globally Rotor diameter, globally
Source: MAKE Source: MAKE
Turbine upgrades to drive increases in turbine ratings towards 2023 in Europe, while the introduction of second generation 6MW turbines will drive medium-term boost in China.
Turbine rating to more than double over the next ten yearsOffshore Wind Turbine Technology Trend
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Tu
rbin
e r
ating
(M
W)
+117%
+48%
+139%
’25e’23e’21e’19e’17
Europe APAC US
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
+50%
+11%
+52%
’25e’23e’21e’19e’17
Ro
tor
dia
me
ter
(m)
USAPACEurope
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Offshore Wind Installation
Technology Trend
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Offshore demonstrators, globally Floating demonstrators, globally
Source: MAKE Source: MAKE
Suction bucket jackets to be rolled out commercially in Europe from 2019.
Next push will be for new monopile and gravity-based designs.
Floating wind enters the pre-commercial stage in Europe Offshore Wind Installation Technology Trend
48
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
(MW)
2021e2020e
129
69%
31%
2019e
80
61%
8%
10%21%
2018e
170
4%
3%
75%
18%
2%
46%
4%
YE/2016
314
5%13%
11%
8%
38%
25%
185
19%
29%
2017
Floating
Multipile
Tripod
Gravity-based
Jacket
Monopile
24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
55%
2019e
49
51%
2018e
743%29%
29%
(MW)
35
14%
86%
YE/2016
16
68%12%
19%
2021e
48
100%
2020e
89
13%
5%
27%
2017
France US
Japan
UK
Portugal
Norway
Italy
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Global foundation forecast
Jacket foundations will continually increase their share
Source: MAKE
Offshore Wind Installation Technology Trend
2
0
5
14
10
12
8
4
6
7
11
1
9
13
3
19%
35%
47%
’22e
19%
24%
57%
’21e
23%
23%
54%
’20e
8%21%
68%
39%
8%16%
76%
’18e
3.28%
17%
75%
’17
2.7
7%
88%
’26e
(GW)
’25e
20%
39%
8%
51%
39%
YE/16’
13.8
7%
’19e
8%
75%
’24e
13%
35%
47%
’23e
5%
Tripod & tripileJacketMonopile Multipile FloatingGravity-based
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Availability of other resources
Many markets still have other cheaper untapped
resources on land, making the governments
less willing to incur the extra cost of floating
Growth of offshore wind
The global offshore market is expected
to grow at a CAGR of 17% towards 2027
Water depths >60m
There is still a large number of offshore
sites in <60m water depths
Development of floating concepts
More than 40 floating concepts are
being developed with 250MW expected
to be demonstrated offshore by 2021
The catch-22 of floating wind can stretch floating wind’s road to commercialization
Governments will play a key role in floating wind’s rolloutOffshore Wind Installation Technology Trend
Source: MAKE
The catch-22 of floating wind: Capacity is needed in order to reduce costs of floating wind, but cost reductions are needed for governments to allocate capacity to floating wind.
Supply chain maturity
The step into serial production will be chal-
lenging due to the complexity and size of floating
concepts and demanding lead time requirements
Politically attractive
Local content, limited environmental
impact and less local opposition
makes floating politically attractive
Cost reductions of offshore wind
X% of floating’s cost developments
are linked with fixed offshore wind,
meaning that cost for fixed,
especially on the turbine site,
will benefit floating
Development in bottom-fixed concepts
Costs of bottom-fixed foundations continues to de-
crease which both reinforces the entry barriers
to the <60m space and impacts the oppor-
tunity costs of allocating floating sites
Stalls floating’s road to commercialization
Drives floating’s road to commercializationCost
Commercialization
Capacity
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Turbine characteristics Lifecycle of vessels, Europe
Source: MAKE Source: MAKE
Vessel owners push to extend the lifetime of their vessels in the European offshore wind market as requirements for vessel installation continue to increase.
Vessels built 2012-2014 are already being upgraded Offshore Wind Installation Technology Trend
73
41
7
141
105
30
225
164
35
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
(m)
1991 20262017
Max hub heightMax water depth Max rotor diameter
Seek
opportunities
outside of
Europe
Transit from MP
and turbine
installation to
TP installation
O&M &
Decommis-
sioning
Upgrade crane
capacity and
length, length of
legs and
deckspace
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Turbine installation fleet and installation requirements, Europe
Next-generation turbines will challenge current fleet
Source: MAKE
Offshore Wind Installation Technology Trend
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
40 50 60 1101009080703020100 120
Requirements to the
length of jack-up legs (m)
Co
mb
ined
req
uire
me
nts
to th
e le
ng
thof
jack-u
p le
gs a
nd
hoo
k h
eih
gt(m
)
Apollo
Orion
Requirements to turbine
installation with COD 2017-2021
Requirements to turbine
installation with COD 2011-2016
Maximum requirements
Average requirements
Minimum requirements
Requirements to turbine
installation with COD 2021-2026
Combined backlog &
track record in MP/TP
(300MW)
Orders for projects with COD 2017-2026
Under construction
Only orders for projects with COD <2017
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Offshore Wind O&M
Technology Trend
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Operators are increasingly trying to optimize logistics costs through long-term commitments and utilization of crew transfer options across sites in order to lower LCOE.
OPEX and O&M costs to be reduced significantly
OPEX in Europe, 2016-2025e
Source: MAKE Source: MAKE
OPEX breakdown, 2016
Offshore Wind O&M Technology Trend
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2020e
OPEX reduced by 34%
LCOE
(EUR/MWh)
93
74
2016 2025e
116
OPEX
Other
O&M
Insurance premia* Other
Decommissioning reserve
Technical and commercial management
O&M costs
Logistics
Turbine
BOP
* Insurance premia considerably below 20% for
leading utilities.
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For leading utilities and turbine OEMs, innovative and tailor made logistics solutions are key to ensure safety and reduce downtime.
Offshore logistics solutions
Solutions available for offshore wind O&M crew transportation
Source: MAKE
Note: ”Offshore solutions” are typically in combination with CTVs, daughter crafts and/or helicopters.
Offshore Wind O&M Technology Trend
Distance to shore
We
ath
er
co
mp
lexity
CTVs
Advanced CTVs and helicopters
Floatels
”Onshore solutions” ”Offshore solutions”
Walk-to-work accommodation vessels
Service operation vessels (SOVs)
Fixed accommodation platforms
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CTVs to be used alone for nearshore projects and in combination with SOVs and floatelsfor sites further from shore.
15% of operational projects deploy more than one means of transport
Logistical solutions and service volumes
Source: MAKE
Offshore Wind O&M Technology Trend
5km 30km 60km
# of turbines operating
217 265
0
3,000
500
1,500
1,000
2,000
2,500
1,871
2,518
804
1,555
204
680
Distance to shore
>60km
YE2015 YE2020e
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Source: MAKE
New innovative platform concept introduces a HeliPort, ensuring landing platform for SOVs and allowing helicopters to refuel. Could also be used for oil and gas applications.
Early stage platform
Few fixed platforms to date, but could be used as a way to extend the
applicability of CTVs as projects move further from shore
Offshore Wind O&M Technology Trend
Innovative platformAs-is today platform
DONG Energy’s Horns Rev 2 project
was the first project to attempt to use
a fixed platform. The platform has no
Helipad and the project is located
30km from shore.
Only accommodation
Vattenfall uses the platform to service
Dantysk and Sandbank projects
located 70 and 90km from shore,
respectively. Used in combination
with CTVs in summer time and
helicopters in winter time.
Accommodation with Helipad
Fred Olsen Windcarriers’s concept
with separated accommodation,
HeliPort and offshore substation.
HeliPort allows for refuelling of
helicopter and supports SOV and
CTV operations.
Accommodation with HeliPort
1 2 3
Project: Horns Rev 2
Installation: 2002
Accommodation: 24 people
Project: DanTysk / Sandbank
Installation: 2015
Accommodation: 50 people
Project: Unknown
Installation: Expected 2019
Accommodation: > 50 people
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Andy Lee
Managing Consultant, APAC
▪ Leads the consulting project execution in APAC region,
mainly in China
▪ Focuses on wind turbine technology, wind farm
solutions and overall value chains
▪ Analyses and develops various analytical frameworks,
methods and models
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Andy Lee