what does wind really cost? modeling wind resources in auroraxmp

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What Does Wind Really Cost? What Does Wind Really Cost? Modeling Wind Resources in AURORA Modeling Wind Resources in AURORA presented by Ray Bliven Power Rates Manager Bonneville Power Administration The views presented in this presentation are those of those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent the position of BPA on any of these issues.

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What Does Wind Really Cost?What Does Wind Really Cost?Modeling Wind Resources in AURORAModeling Wind Resources in AURORA

presented byRay Bliven

Power Rates ManagerBonneville Power Administration

The views presented in this presentation are those of those of the presenter anddo not necessarily represent the position of BPA on any of these issues.

Last TimeLast Time

Building a Cogeneration ResourceBuilding a Cogeneration ResourceModeling cogeneration in AURORAModeling cogeneration in AURORA

Combined Cycle Cogeneration

High Pressure Steam to Process

High Pressure Steamto Turbine

Low Pressure Steam ReturnLow Pressure Steamfor NOx Reduction

Low Pressure Steam to ProcessProcessSteam

Use

Heat RecoverySteam Generator

(HRSG)Gas TurbineExhaust Heat

Recovery

Duc

t Bur

ners

HP

Boi

ler

SCR

Econ

omiz

er

Preh

eate

r

Stac

kAmmoniafor NOx

Reduction

BFW Pump

PumpWater

Treatment

WaterSource

Mak

eup

Wat

er

Deaerator

Transformer

Generator

Transformer

Generator

NaturalGas

Supply

CompressorOutside

Air

Cumbustors

CumbustionTurbine

Gas Turbine Generator

High Pressure Steamto Turbine

Low Pressure Steamfor NOx Reduction

Water Vapor

Pump

SteamCondensate

Condensator

CoolWater

Cooling Tower

Warm Water

SteamTurbine

Last TimeLast Time

Building a Cogeneration ResourceBuilding a Cogeneration ResourceModeling cogeneration in AURORAModeling cogeneration in AURORAThis time:This time:Building a Wind ResourceBuilding a Wind ResourceModeling wind generation in AURORAModeling wind generation in AURORAExamining issues related to wind generationExamining issues related to wind generation

Turbine Parts Arrive by ShipTurbine Parts Arrive by Ship

Site Preparation BeginsSite Preparation Begins

Foundation Bolts InstalledFoundation Bolts Installed

Foundation PouredFoundation Poured

Foundation FinishedFoundation Finished

Tower Section Trucked to SiteTower Section Trucked to Site

Nacelle Trucked to SiteNacelle Trucked to Site

Rotor Blade Trucked to SiteRotor Blade Trucked to Site

Parts Arrive at SiteParts Arrive at Site

Tower InstalledTower Installed

Rotor Hub Attached to NacelleRotor Hub Attached to Nacelle

Nacelle InstalledNacelle Installed

Rotor Blade InstalledRotor Blade Installed

Completed TurbineCompleted Turbine

Electrical Connection ProceedsElectrical Connection Proceeds

Project CompleteProject Complete

83 turbines at 1.8 MW each = 150 MW

Located on 165 acres in Eastern Washington

Produces 50 average megawatts

Site prep began March 2005

First turbine construction began August 2005

Project complete December 2005

Phases in Building a Wind ResourcePhases in Building a Wind Resource

Find a SiteFind a Site

Build the MachineBuild the Machine

Integrate onto the GridIntegrate onto the Grid

Find a SiteFind a Site

Location, Location, LocationLocation, Location, Location

Site Studies Site Studies ---- Wind Speed DataWind Speed Data

Permits and LeasesPermits and Leases

Windy Sites are Best, But Windy Sites are Best, But ……

Ridgelines are Usually GoodRidgelines are Usually Good

Consistently Windy Areas Work GreatConsistently Windy Areas Work Great

Wind Atlas Wind Atlas –– Winter PotentialWinter Potential

Wind Atlas Wind Atlas –– Spring PotentialSpring Potential

Wind Atlas Wind Atlas –– Summer PotentialSummer Potential

Wind Atlas Wind Atlas –– Autumn PotentialAutumn Potential

Build the MachineBuild the Machine

Decide Which Machine and How BigDecide Which Machine and How Big–– old technology old technology –– 600 to 660 kW600 to 660 kW–– new technology new technology –– 2 to 3 MW2 to 3 MW–– developing technology developing technology –– 5 MW5 MW

Get In LineGet In Line–– everyone seems to want wind generatorseveryone seems to want wind generators–– current order backlogscurrent order backlogs–– secondary markets developingsecondary markets developing

Costs of a Wind GeneratorCosts of a Wind Generator

Site and Site PreparationSite and Site PreparationHardwareHardwareIntegration and TransmissionIntegration and Transmission

Current estimatesCurrent estimates–– EIA EIA –– 1,200 per kW1,200 per kW–– NPCC NPCC –– 1,175 per kW1,175 per kW

Environmental ConsiderationsEnvironmental Considerations

BirdsBirdsVisualVisualNoiseNoiseEmissions??Emissions??

Wind Generation in the WestWind Generation in the West

1990 1990 –– 1,650 MW in California1,650 MW in California1999 1999 –– 1,975 MW in California + 117 MW1,975 MW in California + 117 MW2002 2002 –– 3,000 MW3,000 MW2004 2004 –– 4,000 MW4,000 MW2006 2006 –– 5,000 MW5,000 MW2007 2007 –– 8,000 MW ??8,000 MW ??2011 2011 –– 14,000 MW !!!???14,000 MW !!!???

Modeling Wind Generation in AURORAModeling Wind Generation in AURORA

Obtain hourly generation or wind speedsObtain hourly generation or wind speeds–– Wind speeds for Washington & OregonWind speeds for Washington & Oregon–– wwwwww--k12.atmos.washington.edu/k12/grayskies/nw_weather.htmlk12.atmos.washington.edu/k12/grayskies/nw_weather.html

Adjust for tower heightAdjust for tower height–– Speed increases by a factor of 1/7th with heightSpeed increases by a factor of 1/7th with height

Apply power curveApply power curve–– Power increases by a cube function with wind speedPower increases by a cube function with wind speed

Normalize to average outputNormalize to average output–– Wind speed readings arenWind speed readings aren’’t always at the wind sitet always at the wind site

Tower Height AdjustmentTower Height Adjustment

www.rpc.com.au/products/windturbines/wind_faq.htmlwww.rpc.com.au/products/windturbines/wind_faq.html

Power CurvePower Curve

www.windpower.org/en/tour/wres/pwr.htmwww.windpower.org/en/tour/wres/pwr.htm

Modeling Wind Generation in AURORAModeling Wind Generation in AURORA

Choose a representative week for each monthChoose a representative week for each monthConvert each hourConvert each hour’’s generation into a forced s generation into a forced outage factor for each of the 168 hours of weekoutage factor for each of the 168 hours of weekResult is 168 hours for 12 months per siteResult is 168 hours for 12 months per siteUse monthly time series vector to refer to Use monthly time series vector to refer to appropriate weekly time series vectorappropriate weekly time series vectorFor each wind resource, point to the monthly time For each wind resource, point to the monthly time series with that resourceseries with that resource’’s forced outage values forced outage value

ExamplesExamples

Wind speed = Wind speed = mphmph 11 55 1010 1515 2020Height adjust = Height adjust = mphmph 22 77 1515 2222 3030Power curve = Power curve = kWkW 00 1010 8080 270270 640640Forced outage = Forced outage = %% 100100 9999 9292 7373 3636

Wind speed = Wind speed = mphmph 2525 3030 3535 4040Height adjust = Height adjust = mphmph 3737 4545 5252 6060Power curve = Power curve = kWkW 10001000 10001000 10001000 00Forced outage = Forced outage = %% 00 00 00 100100

AURORA setup AURORA setup –– Weekly VectorsWeekly Vectors

AURORA setup AURORA setup –– Monthly VectorsMonthly Vectors

AURORA setup AURORA setup –– ResourcesResources

AURORA setup AURORA setup –– FuelFuel

set to zero

AURORA setup AURORA setup –– AnnualAnnual

actual VOM minus Production Tax Credit

Results of Wind ShapingResults of Wind ShapingShaped WindShaped Wind v. v. Flat WindFlat Wind OutputOutput

January 2007 – Existing Wind Resources – 5,500 MW capacity

Results of Wind ShapingResults of Wind ShapingShaped WindShaped Wind v. v. Flat WindFlat Wind OutputOutput

Year 2007 – Existing Wind Resources – 5,500 MW capacity

Results of Wind ShapingResults of Wind ShapingShaped WindShaped Wind v. v. Flat WindFlat Wind OutputOutput

January 2007 – Future Wind Resources – 14,000 MW capacity

Results of Wind ShapingResults of Wind ShapingShaped WindShaped Wind v. v. Flat WindFlat Wind OutputOutput

Year 2007 – Future Wind Resources – 14,000 MW capacity

Results of Wind ShapingResults of Wind ShapingShaped WindShaped Wind v. v. Flat WindFlat Wind PricesPrices

Avg = 78.89; Stdev = 10.2 Avg = 78.18; Stdev = 9.4

January 2007 – Existing Wind Resources – Mid-C Prices

Results of Wind ShapingResults of Wind ShapingShaped WindShaped Wind v. v. Flat WindFlat Wind PricesPrices

Avg = 73.30; Stdev = 9.5Avg = 70.36; Stdev = 16.7

January 2007 – Future Wind Resources – Mid-C Prices

Results of Wind ShapingResults of Wind ShapingShaped WindShaped Wind v. v. Flat WindFlat Wind PricesPrices

Avg = 80.04; Stdev = 17.4 Avg = 80.04; Stdev = 17.1

Year 2007 – Existing Wind Resources – Mid-C Prices

Results of Wind ShapingResults of Wind ShapingShaped WindShaped Wind v. v. Flat WindFlat Wind PricesPrices

Avg = 75.96; Stdev = 17.1Avg = 75.33; Stdev = 18.5

Year 2007 – Future Wind Resources – Mid-C Prices

Geographic ConcentrationGeographic Concentration

Wind generation in Washington and Oregon Wind generation in Washington and Oregon may grow to about 4,500 MW within five may grow to about 4,500 MW within five yearsyearsAlmost 3,000 MW is targeted to the eastern Almost 3,000 MW is targeted to the eastern Columbia River gorge and another 1,000 Columbia River gorge and another 1,000 MW 50 miles east of the gorgeMW 50 miles east of the gorgeHow will this concentration affect the system How will this concentration affect the system operations and market clearing pricesoperations and market clearing prices

Expected Geographic ConcentrationExpected Geographic Concentration

about 200 MW each

Test Geographic DispersionTest Geographic Dispersion

about 200 MW each

Results of Wind DispersionResults of Wind DispersionConcentrated WindConcentrated Wind v. v. Dispersed WindDispersed Wind ProductionProduction

January 2007 – Washington/Oregon Wind Resources

Results of Wind DispersionResults of Wind DispersionConcentrated WindConcentrated Wind v. v. Dispersed WindDispersed Wind ProductionProduction

January 2007 – Washington/Oregon Wind Resources

Results of Wind DispersionResults of Wind DispersionConcentrated WindConcentrated Wind v. v. Dispersed WindDispersed Wind ProductionProduction

Year 2007 – Washington/Oregon Wind Resources

Results of Wind DispersionResults of Wind DispersionConcentrated WindConcentrated Wind v. v. Dispersed WindDispersed Wind ProductionProduction

Year 2007 – Washington/Oregon Wind Resources

How Does Wind Produce Emissions?How Does Wind Produce Emissions?

The Overlooked Environmental Cost of a Wind The Overlooked Environmental Cost of a Wind Generation Portfolio to Serve the Need for PowerGeneration Portfolio to Serve the Need for Power–– draft paper by Lincoln draft paper by Lincoln WolvertonWolverton (attached)(attached)

Premise of the paperPremise of the paper–– In a closed system, wind generation may not change the In a closed system, wind generation may not change the

amount of fossil fuel burnedamount of fossil fuel burned–– In an open system, the addition of wind generation will In an open system, the addition of wind generation will

change the system operations from base load plants to change the system operations from base load plants to cycling plantscycling plants

Testing the Premise with AURORATesting the Premise with AURORA

First, test the closed system premiseFirst, test the closed system premise–– Use AURORAUse AURORA’’s closed system dispatch feature s closed system dispatch feature

to examine two portfoliosto examine two portfoliosOne portfolio has a 100 MW wind generator and a One portfolio has a 100 MW wind generator and a 100 MW single cycle combustion turbine100 MW single cycle combustion turbine

–– Heat rate = 9500Heat rate = 9500

Other portfolio has a 100 MW combined cycle Other portfolio has a 100 MW combined cycle combustion turbinecombustion turbine

–– Heat rate = 7300Heat rate = 7300

Testing the Premise with AURORATesting the Premise with AURORA

Results:Results:–– Fossil fuel usage increases from wind case to Fossil fuel usage increases from wind case to

CCCT case by 6.6%CCCT case by 6.6%–– GHG production increases by 8.8%GHG production increases by 8.8%–– NONOxx production decreases by 73%production decreases by 73%–– SOSO22 production decreases by 33%production decreases by 33%

Testing the Premise with AURORATesting the Premise with AURORA

Next, test the open system premiseNext, test the open system premise–– Examine two casesExamine two cases

First, compare the future system with wind First, compare the future system with wind generation presentgeneration presentSecond, replace the future system wind with an Second, replace the future system wind with an equivalent amount of energy production from equivalent amount of energy production from combined cycle combustion turbinescombined cycle combustion turbines

14,000 MW of wind producing 4,135 14,000 MW of wind producing 4,135 aMWaMW of of energy replaced with combustion turbines in energy replaced with combustion turbines in each area with wind plantseach area with wind plants

Testing the Premise with AURORATesting the Premise with AURORA

Results:Results:–– Fossil fuel usage increases from wind case to CCCT Fossil fuel usage increases from wind case to CCCT

case by 5.7% across all of WECCcase by 5.7% across all of WECC–– GHG production increases by 4.0%GHG production increases by 4.0%

18.7% increase in CCCT GHG offset by 18.7% increase in CCCT GHG offset by peakerpeaker reductionsreductions

–– NONOxx production increases by 0.8%production increases by 0.8%18.2% increase in CCCT NO18.2% increase in CCCT NOx x offset by offset by peakerpeaker reductionsreductions

–– SOSO22 production increases by 0.1%production increases by 0.1%19.5% increase in CCCT SO19.5% increase in CCCT SO2 2 offset by offset by peakerpeaker reductionsreductions

Testing the Premise with AURORATesting the Premise with AURORA

Conclusions:Conclusions:–– Wind generation in the WECC is now of such Wind generation in the WECC is now of such

size that hourly modeling is an important factor size that hourly modeling is an important factor in predicting market clearing pricesin predicting market clearing prices

–– Geographic concentration of wind generation is Geographic concentration of wind generation is more expensive to more expensive to MCPsMCPs than diverse locationsthan diverse locations

–– Emissions savings from wind generation are Emissions savings from wind generation are minimized if SCCT operation increases to minimized if SCCT operation increases to regulate wind output to meet loadregulate wind output to meet load