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Global Monthly June 2019
Source: World Bank. Note: Trade is the average of export and import volumes. Aggregate growth rates calculated using constant 2010 U.S. dollar GDP weights. Shaded area indicates forecasts.
Global GDP and trade growth
Overview
As discussed in the June 2019 Global Economic Prospects
report, global growth has been downgraded to 2.6 percent in 2019 amid weaker-than-expected trade and investment.
Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are expected to slow to a four-year low of 4 percent in 2019, alongside subdued investment and export growth.
Risks are *rmly on the downside, in part re+ecting the possibility of destabilizing policy developments, including a further escalation of trade tensions between major economies; renewed *nancial turmoil in EMDEs; and sharper-than-expected slowdowns in major economies.
Chart of the Month
Global trade growth is projected to weaken from 4.1 percent in 2019 to 2.6 percent in 2019—a full percentage point below previous forecasts—amid weaker investment and elevated trade policy uncertainty.
At 2.6 percent, global trade growth is slightly below the pace observed during the 2015-16 trade slowdown, and the weakest since the global *nancial crisis.
Assuming no further escalation in trade tensions, global trade growth is expected to stabilize to 3.2 percent by 2021 as the weakness in manufacturing abates.
Special Focus: Growth in Low-Income Countries—Evolution and Prospects
3e number of low-income countries (LICs) has almost halved since 2001, as rapid growth allowed many of them to
achieve middle-income status.
Prospects for future progression of today’s LICs appear dim in light of greater structural challenges.
Policy measures to address these challenges and boost LIC growth will need to be coordinated and multipronged.
3e Global Monthly is a publication of the Prospects Group. 3is edition was prepared by Patrick Kirby and Collette Wheeler, based on contributions from Peter Nagle, Julia Nor+eet, Rudi Steinbach, Marc Stocker, Temel Taskin, Ekaterine Vashakmadze, Dana Vorisek, Jinxin Wu, and Sandy Ye. 3is Global Monthly re+ects data available up to June 26. For more information, visit: www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/economic-monitoring.
Table of Contents
Monthly Highlights ............................................ 2
Special Focus ...................................................... 6
Recent Prospects Group Publications ................... 8
Recent World Bank Working Papers .................... 8
Recent World Bank Reports ................................ 8
Table A: Major Data Releases ............................. 8
Table B: Activity and Inflation ........................... 9
Table C: Trade and Finance............................... 9
Table D: Financial Markets ............................ 10
Table E: Commodity Prices............................... 10
2
June 2019
Global activity: downgraded. Global economic activity has
softened in 2019, with trade and manufacturing showing signs of
marked weakness (Figure 1.A). As a result, global growth in 2019
was downgraded to 2.6 percent in the June 2019 Global Economic
Prospects report, 0.3 percentage point below previous forecasts.
Incoming data point to subdued growth in 19Q2, with the global
manufacturing PMI in May falling to its lowest level since
October 2012 and below the threshold indicating expansion.
Business optimism in manufacturing has softened and could be
further dampened by uncertainty about global trade prospects
and rising trade tensions. As recent softness abates, global growth
is projected to edge up to 2.7 percent in 2020 and to 2.8 percent
in 2021 (Figure 1.B). Slowing activity in advanced economies and
China is expected to be accompanied by a modest cyclical
recovery in major commodity exporters and in a number of
EMDEs aHected by recent *nancial market pressure.
Global trade: heightened uncertainty. Global goods trade growth
continues to show signs of weakness, with new export orders in
May remaining in contractionary territory for the ninth
consecutive month. In mid-June, India announced retaliatory
tariHs on a list of more than 20 U.S. goods after losing
preferential access to the U.S. market. 3e G20 meetings in
Osaka at the end of June are expected to provide information
about the direction of U.S.-China trade negotiations. 3e forecast
for global trade growth in 2019 has been revised down a full
percentage point, to 2.6 percent—slightly below the pace
observed during the 2015-16 trade slowdown, and the weakest
since the global *nancial crisis. As demand from major economies
moderates, export growth is expected to slow across EMDE
regions in 2019 (Figure 1.C). An exception is Sub-Saharan Africa,
where it is expected to recover modestly from earlier supply
disruptions in key commodity-producing sectors. 3e weakness in
export growth this year is projected to be particularly pronounced
in the Middle East and North Africa, re+ecting oil production
cuts in OPEC countries and U.S. sanctions on the Islamic
Republic of Iran. Overall, export growth in 2019 is expected to
be below historical averages in more than 80 percent of EMDEs.
Global �nancing conditions: still favorable. Amid signs of
deterioration in global economic prospects and persistently low
in+ation, major central banks have adopted more accommodative
monetary policy stances. Some easing of external *nancing
pressures has also allowed several EMDE central banks to cut
interest rates or put their tightening cycles on hold. Over the last
Monthly Highlights
FIGURE 1.B Global GDP growth
FIGURE 1.C Export volume growth, by EMDE region
Source: Haver Analytics, World Bank. A. Manufacturing and new export orders are measured by Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion in economic activity; readings below 50 indicate contraction. Black horizontal line indicates expansionary threshold. Last observation is May 2019. B.C. EMDEs = emerging market and developing economies. EAP = East Asia and Pacific, ECA = Europe and Central Asia, LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean, MNA = Middle East and North Africa, SAR = South Asia, and SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa. Aggregate growth rates calculated using constant 2010 U.S. dollar GDP weights. Shaded areas indicate forecasts.
FIGURE 1.A Global manufacturing and new export orders
3
June 2019
twelve months, U.S. and Euro Area yields have fallen by 60 to 90
basis points (Figure 2.A). 3e share of bonds yielding negative
market interest rates increased to its highest level since mid-2016,
reaching more than 25 percent globally and nearly 50 percent in
Europe and Japan (Figure 2.B). After falling sharply in May,
global equity prices stabilized in early June, but bond prices
rose in tandem over renewed concerns regarding trade
tensions—driving down yields in advanced economies.
EMDE �nancing conditions: some stabilization. Heightened
*nancial market volatility and trade policy uncertainty have
weighed on investor appetite for EMDE assets in recent months,
with EMDE bond spreads rising to a 5-month high at the start of
June before receding somewhat. International bond issuance and
portfolio +ows to EMDEs softened in May but showed tentative
signs of stabilization in June. Equity prices have recovered
somewhat in early June, and currency pressures have waned, as
prospects of greater monetary policy accommodation in the
United States buoyed sentiment.
Commodity markets: volatile oil prices. Industrial commodity
prices declined in May and into June, re+ecting concerns about
slowing global growth, compounded by growing trade tensions
(Figure 2.C). Oil prices fell sharply, with the Brent crude oil price
declining from $72/bbl in mid-May to $61/bbl in early June—a
15 percent decline. Estimates of global oil demand were revised
down further in 2019, with the U.S. Energy Information
Administration lowering its oil demand forecast to 1.2 million
barrels per day (mb/d) and OPEC dropping forecasts to
1.1 mb/d. However, oil prices saw a small spike in mid-June after
an attack on two oil tankers in the Middle East. Base metals
prices have fallen around 2 percent, on average, since mid-May.
In contrast, agricultural prices, particularly grains, have risen on
supply concerns, with adverse weather conditions in the United
States severely disrupting the planting season. Since the end of
April, wheat and corn prices have risen by roughly 28 percent.
United States: mixed signals. Incoming data suggest
consumption growth remains resilient, with retail sales rising 0.5
percent (m/m) in May—however, this is expected to be a
temporary boost as growing trade tensions weigh on consumer
con*dence (Figure 3.A). Manufacturing activity appears to be
softening in 19Q2—industrial production, durable goods
shipments, and the manufacturing PMI have shown signs of
slowing. 3e labor market may also be moderating—the economy
added 75 thousand jobs in May, dropping the 3-month average
gain to 150 thousand, down from almost 250 thousand at the
FIGURE 2.B Share of bonds trading with negative interest rates
FIGURE 2.A U.S. and German 10-year government bond yields
FIGURE 2.C Commodity price indexes, monthly
Source: Bloomberg, World Bank. A. Figure shows weekly data. Last observation is June 26, 2019. B. Last observation is June 2019, which includes data through June 26, 2019. C. Indexes are based on nominal U.S. dollars. Last observation is May 2019.
4
June 2019
beginning of the year. In+ation remains well below target, with
core PCE in+ation at 1.6 percent and headline at 1.5 percent
(y/y) in May. U.S. growth is expected to slow to 2.5 percent in
2019 and further decelerate to 1.7 percent in 2020 and 1.6
percent in 2021, as the eHects of *scal stimulus wane. Recent
tariH increases and associated retaliatory actions are expected to
weigh on activity, but this is being oHset by accommodative
monetary policy and by sustained increases in productivity
growth and labor force participation.
Euro Area: continued weakness. Economic conditions in the
Euro Area remain weak, particularly in the manufacturing sector
(Figure 3.B). Despite an uptick in GDP growth in 19Q2,
industrial activity remains tepid and economic sentiment fell to a
seven-month low in June. Industrial production contracted by
0.5 percent in April (m/m), and the manufacturing PMI
remained low at 47.7 in May, while in+ation expectations have
been trending down. Growth is projected to slow from 1.8
percent in 2018 to 1.2 percent in 2019 and to edge up to an
average of 1.4 percent in 2020-21. Relative to previous
projections, this represents a downgrade of 0.4 percentage point
in 2019 and 0.1 percentage point in 2020, re+ecting weakness in
trade and domestic demand that will not be fully oHset by
accommodative *scal and monetary policy.
United Kingdom: continued uncertainty. Following a rapid
build-up of inventories in the *rst quarter due to Brexit-related
uncertainty, recent data point to weakness. Industrial production
fell 2.7 percent in April, the second largest monthly decline since
the global *nancial crisis, while the manufacturing PMI fell below
50—the *rst since 2016 (Figure 3.C). Prime Minister May will
stay on until a replacement is chosen, likely in late-July. 3e
eventual resolution of Brexit remains unclear, but the odds of a
no-deal or hard Brexit have increased.
Japan: trade weakness. Activity in Japan bene*ted from
government support in the *rst half of 2019, as well as a rebound
following natural disasters last year, but remains lackluster.
Growth in 2019 is expected to be 0.8 percent, down from
previous projections due to weaker-than-expected external
demand. A variety of *scal measures are expected to soften the
near-term impact of the VAT hike in October. With the
economy near full employment and potential output constrained
by low labor force growth, capacity constraints will slow activity
to a projected 0.7 percent in 2020 and 0.6 percent in 2021.
China: deteriorating sentiment. Activity indicators were mixed in
May following the escalation of trade tensions with the United
FIGURE 3.B Industrial production growth and manufacturing PMI in the Euro Area
FIGURE 3.A U.S. nominal retail sales growth and consumer confidence
FIGURE 3.C United Kingdom industrial production growth and manufacturing PMI
Source: Haver Analytics, University of Michigan, World Bank. A. Retail sales are 3-month moving averages. Last observation is June 2019 for consumer confidence and May 2019 for retail sales. B.C. PMI=Purchasing Managers’ Index. PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion in economic activity; readings below 50 indicate contraction. Last observation is April 2019 for industrial production and May 2019 for manufacturing PMI.
5
June 2019
States. 3e oMcial manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4—its third
sub-50 reading this year—as export orders declined markedly,
while the non-manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 54.3
(Figure 4.A). In+ation rose to 2.7 percent (y/y) in May due to
continued food price pressures. After falling sharply in May,
China’s equity markets showed signs of stabilization in early June
amid signals that the central bank would ease policy further if
trade tensions deepen. Growth is projected to decelerate from 6.6
percent in 2018 to 6.2 percent in 2019, re+ecting softening
manufacturing activity and trade. 3e recent increase in tariHs on
trade with the United States is projected to weigh on growth in
2020, which has been revised down to 6.1 percent.
Major commodity exporters: slowdown. 3e recovery in
commodity exporters remains fragile in some larger economies
(Figure 4.B). Activity in South Africa contracted at its fastest pace
in a decade in 19Q1, and sluggish manufacturing PMI in May
suggests the recovery in 19Q2 could be subdued. In Brazil, GDP
growth contracted by 0.2 percent in 19Q1 (q/q saar), re+ecting
weakness in the industrial sector. In Russia, GDP growth
contracted for the *rst time since 17Q4, shrinking 1.7 percent in
19Q1 (q/q saar) amid weak industrial activity. Moderating
in+ationary pressure allowed the central bank to ease policy for
the *rst time in a year. In contrast, the manufacturing PMI in
Nigeria remained broadly unchanged in May, despite softer
inventories and new orders. In Saudi Arabia, the non-oil sector
PMI increased further in May, to 57.3, the highest level since
January 2018. 3e manufacturing PMI in Indonesia also rose to a
nine-month high of 51.6 in May as new orders strengthened.
Major commodity importers: diverging activity. Growth in
commodity importers slowed in 19Q1 and industrial activity
points to softness in 19Q2. 3e manufacturing PMI remains
weak in Poland, with May registering the seventh consecutive
month of contraction amid soft new export orders (Figure 4.C).
In Egypt, the manufacturing PMI softened in May, while food
price pressures lifted in+ation to 14 percent (y/y). 3e
manufacturing PMI in 1ailand fell to 50.7 in May from an
eleven month-high in April. In Mexico, consumer con*dence,
along with manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs,
weakened in May, suggesting that activity will remain tepid after
shrinking 0.7 percent (q/q saar) in 19Q1. In contrast, the
manufacturing PMI in India rose to 52.7 in May but remained
below the level of early 2019. 3e central bank eased its policy
stance further in June. In Turkey, growth accelerated to 5.2
percent (q/q saar) in 19Q1, following three quarters of
contraction. However, industrial activity and the manufacturing
PMI have continued to decline in 19Q2.
FIGURE 4.B Manufacturing PMI in major EMDE commodity exporters
FIGURE 4.A GDP growth and manufacturing PMI in China
FIGURE 4.C GDP growth in EMDEs
Source: Haver Analytics, World Bank. A.B. PMI=Purchasing Managers’ Index. PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion in economic activity; readings below 50 indicate contraction. Last observation for manufacturing PMI is May 2019. A.C. Last observation is 2019Q1 for GDP. B. Manufacturing PMI is weighted using 2010 constant U.S. dollars. Sample includes Brazil, Russia, and South Africa. C. Aggregate growth rates calculated using constant 2010 U.S. dollar GDP weights.
6
June 2019
FIGURE 5.B Resource production in LICs of 2001
FIGURE 5.A LIC poverty rates and headcounts
FIGURE 5.C MDRI and HIPC relief in LICs of 2001
Source: International Monetary Fund, United Nations, World Bank, World Bureau of Metal Statistics. A. Latest reflects 2015 data. Due to data limitations, poverty share for “LICs turned MICs” includes 26 of 32 countries and reflects 94.1 percent of the sample population in 2015; “Continued LICs” includes 25 of 32 countries and reflects 79.8 percent of the sample population. C. Committed debt relief under the assumption of full participation of creditors. Bars represent average debt relief per region in US$ billions for all HIPC and MDRI LICs. Diamonds reflect average debt relief per region relative to countries’ GDP.
Fewer Low-Income Countries (LICs) since 2001. As discussed in the latest Global Economic Prospects report, there are currently 34 countries classi*ed as low-income, about half the number in 2001. 3is Special Focus explores the factors that buoyed LIC growth since 2001, how those factors supported LIC progression to middle-income (MIC) status, and what the prospects for future progression of today’s LICs are.
Rapid growth in LICs. 3e countries classi*ed as LICs in 2001 registered generally rapid growth between 2001-18. 3ose that reached MIC status, in particular, averaged growth of 5.8 percent per year—about one-quarter faster than those 2001 LICs that have remained in the group and one-half faster than non-LIC EMDEs, although with wide heterogeneity.
Poverty reduction. Strong growth among the 2001 LICs contrib-uted to poverty reduction, with the share of extreme poor in the population of 2001 LICs falling by 16 percentage points, on average (Figure 5.A). 3e fall in LIC poverty rates has accounted for about one third of the decline in the global poverty headcount between 2001 and 2015.
Drivers of rapid LIC growth. Several factors helped bolster LIC growth. 3e commodity price boom of 2001-11 fueled unprece-dented investment in commodity exploration and production (Figure 5.B); higher export earnings helped improve *scal positions. Nine of the 2001 LICs experienced deep recessions during the 1990s as they transitioned from centrally planned to market-based economies during the 1990s; by the early 2000s these countries were experiencing strong rebounds, supported by growth-enhancing reforms amid solid foundations of human and physical capital. Con+icts receded among some of the LICs in Africa, where con+ict-related casualties have been on a steady decline since the 1990s. 3e MDRI and HIPC debt relief initia-tives helped put public *nances on a sounder footing (Figure 5.C). Greater trade integration supported export growth, attract-ed stronger FDI in+ows, and encouraged reforms. Most 2001 LICs boosted their investment in human and physical capital, with secondary education net enrollment ratios almost doubling and the investment-to-GDP ratio increasing by 5 percentage points since 2001 (Figure 6.A). Business climates improved, helped by strengthening of the rule of law. And *scal manage-ment and monetary policy frameworks have been enhanced.
Drivers of rapid growth in LICs turned MICs. However, these factors were of greater bene*t to the 2001 LICs that became
Special Focus: Growth in Low-Income Countries—Evolution and Prospects
7
June 2019
FIGURE 6.B Share of agriculture in the economy
FIGURE 6.A Average secondary-school enrollment rates
FIGURE 6.C Projections of global extreme poverty
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators. A. 2010s includes data up to 2017. 2001 LICs, “LICs turned MICs,” and “Continued LICs,” include 55, 26, and 29 countries, respectively. B. Unweighted averages. C. Data based on global real per capita growth. 8 percent growth assumes average annual growth in per capita incomes of 6 percent for all countries, but that incomes of the bottom 40 percent of the distribution grow at 8 percent, while those in the top 60 percent grow at 4.7 percent.
MICs than those that remain LICs today. On average, policy frameworks, governance, and business environments were strong-er among the LICs that progressed. 3ese countries also had bet-ter-developed infrastructure, more notable improvements in hu-man capital, and larger *scal resources. 3ey also bene*ted from more favorable initial conditions, as the average per capita income was about 80 percent higher than that of the LICs that remained and much closer to the MIC threshold. 3e countries that became MICs also had a geographical advantage, as around one-third were landlocked compared to almost half of today’s LICs.
Challenges of today’s LICs. Prospects for continued progression of LICs to MIC status appear more challenging. Per capita incomes in today’s LICs are further below the middle-income threshold than were the incomes of the LICs of 2001 that subsequently became MICs. Most of today’s LICs are fragile, compared to one-third of 2001 LICs that turned MICs. 3ose that are not fragile, face a geographical disadvantage, with more than half of them being landlocked, and mostly among other LICs or countries with per capita incomes not far above the middle-income threshold. Today’s LICs rely heavily on agricul-ture, making them more vulnerable to extreme weather events (Figure 6.B). Furthermore, debt among today’s LICs has been rising, and larger interest burdens owing to greater indebtedness often absorb revenues that could otherwise be used for growth-enhancing infrastructure development and poverty-reducing expenditures on health and education.
Prospects for poverty reduction in today’s LICs. Poverty allevia-tion among today’s LICs will be more challenging amid these sub-dued prospects for lifting per capita incomes to middle-income levels. Poverty rates exceed 40 percent among today’s LICs, and per capita growth is expected to fall well short of the 8 percent needed to reach the Sustainable Development Goal of reducing global extreme poverty to 3 percent by 2030 (Figure 6.C).
Policy options. Policy measures to boost LIC growth will need to be coordinated and multipronged. Such measures include greater integration into global trade, encouraging export diversi*cation, and attracting stronger foreign direct investment. 3ese speci*c measures can help strengthen domestic skills and technologies but will need to be accompanied by investments in human capital and infrastructure upgrades—without exacerbating existing *scal vulnerabilities. Further measures that could bolster LIC growth include greater *nancial inclusion along with the strengthening of *nancial systems, mobilizing domestic resources to support sustainable government *nances, improving governance and business climates to foster stronger private sector activity, and enhanced competition policies to raise productivity and international competitiveness.
8
June 2019
Recent Prospects Group Publications Global Economic Prospects - June 2019: Heightened Tensions, Subdued Investment
Commodity Markets Outlook - April 2019: Food Price Shocks: Channels and Implications
Global Economic Prospects - January 2019: Darkening Skies
Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies: Evolution, Drivers and Policies
Commodity Markets Outlook - October 2018: The Changing of the Guard: Shifts in Commodity Demand
Recent World Bank Working Papers Search for Yield in Large International Corporate Bonds: Investor Behavior and Firm Responses
Monetary Policy in Fossil Fuel Exporters: The Curse of Horizons
Measuring the Full Extent of Fiscal Losses and Gains
How Much Does Reducing Inequality Matter for Global Poverty?
Migration and Jobs: Issues for the 21st Century
Trade Integration and Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa
The Economics of Sustainability: Causes and Consequences of Energy Market Transformation
The Changing Pattern of Returns to Education: What Impact Will This Have on Inequality
Does Rainfall Matter for Economic Growth ? Evidence from Global Sub-National Data (1990-2014)
Recent World Bank Reports Women, Business and the Law
Beyond the Gap: How Countries Can Afford the Infrastructure They Need while Protecting the Planet
Fiscal Policies for Development and Climate Action
Doing Business 2019: Training for Reform
World Development Report 2019: The Changing Nature of Work
Atlas of Sustainable Development Goals 2018
Fair Progress? Economic Mobility Across Generations Around the World
TABLE A: Major Data Releases (Percent change, y/y)
Recent releases: May 27, 2019 - June 26, 2019 Upcoming releases: June 27, 2019 - July 26, 2019
Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous
France 5/29/19 GDP Q1 1.2% 1.2% Germany 6/27/19 CPI JUN 1.3%
Brazil 5/30/19 GDP Q1 0.5 % 1.1 % South Korea 6/27/19 IP MAY -0.1 %
Germany 5/31/19 CPI MAY 1.3% 1.9% United Kingdom 6/28/19 GDP Q1 1.8 %
India 5/31/19 GDP Q1 5.8 % 6.6 % Indonesia 7/1/19 CPI JUN 3.3 %
Italy 5/31/19 GDP Q1 -0.1 % 0.0 % Brazil 7/2/19 IP MAY -3.9 %
Turkey 5/31/19 GDP Q1 -2.6 % -3.0% Germany 7/8/19 IP MAY -1.9%
South Korea 6/3/19 GDP Q1 1.6% 3.0% Mexico 7/9/19 CPI JUN 4.3%
Turkey 6/3/19 CPI MAY 18.7 % 19.5 % United Kingdom 7/10/19 IP MAY -1.1%
Australia 6/4/19 GDP Q1 1.8 % 2.4% United States 7/11/19 CPI JUN 1.8 %
South Africa 6/4/19 GDP Q1 0.0 % 1.1% India 7/12/19 IP MAY 3.4 %
Euro Area 6/6/19 GDP Q1 1.2 % 1.2% Japan 7/12/19 IP MAY -1.3%
Indonesia 6/10/19 CPI MAY 3.3 % 2.8 % Turkey 7/12/19 IP MAY -4.0 %
China 6/11/19 CPI MAY 2.7 % 2.5 % Euro Area 7/12/19 IP MAY -0.4 %
United States 6/12/19 CPI MAY 1.8 % 2.0 % Mexico 7/12/19 IP MAY -0.4 %
France 6/14/19 CPI MAY 0.9 % 1.3 % China 7/14/19 IP JUN 4.9%
Euro Area 6/18/19 CPI MAY 1.3% 1.6% United States 7/16/19 IP JUN 2.0 %
South Africa 6/19/19 CPI MAY 4.4% 4.4 % China 7/16/19 GDP Q2 6.4 %
Canada 6/19/19 CPI MAY 2.3% 2.1% Euro Area 7/17/19 CPI JUN 1.3%
New Zealand 6/19/19 GDP Q1 2.9% 2.5% Ireland 7/19/19 GDP Q1 2.6%
United Kingdom 6/19/19 CPI MAY 2.0 % 2.1 % Malaysia 7/24/19 CPI JUN 0.2 %
Japan 6/20/19 CPI MAY 0.7 % 0.9 % South Africa 7/24/19 CPI JUN 4.4%
(Percent change y/y)
9
June 2019
TABLE B: Activity and Inflation (Percent change y/y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q/q, annualized)
Sources: Haver Analytics, IMF International Financial Statistics, World Bank. 1 Industrial production is total production (may exclude construction). When data are unavailable, "industrial production, manufacturing" is used as a proxy. 2 Median inflation rate for each grouping.
TABLE C: Trade and Finance
Sources: Haver Analytics, IMF International Financial Statistics, World Bank. 1Total reserves excluding gold are used as proxies when total reserves data are unavailable.
2018 2019 2018
2017 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Industrial production, sa 1
World 4.1 3.6 2.7 2.6 1.7 1.9 3.9 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.8 2.2 1.7 2.2 1.9 2.5 1.6
Advanced economies 2.8 2.2 2.5 1.6 0.6 -2.1 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.4 0.7 0.2 1.3 0.6 0.0 -0.1
Emerging market and developing economies 5.3 5.0 2.8 3.6 2.8 5.8 5.3 4.6 5.5 4.5 4.5 5.1 3.7 3.3 3.1 3.1 5.0 3.2
Commodity-exporting EMDEs 2.5 2.6 -1.5 4.2 0.8 0.1 1.7 0.6 3.0 2.3 1.4 3.6 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.2
Other EMDEs 6.2 5.7 4.0 3.4 3.3 7.3 6.3 5.7 6.2 5.1 5.3 5.5 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.7 6.0 4.1
East Asia and Pacific 6.3 6.0 4.6 3.5 5.6 9.2 6.7 4.9 5.9 5.7 5.4 6.1 5.4 5.4 4.9 4.5 7.7 4.6
East Asia excl. China 4.7 4.6 -1.4 5.5 5.1 -1.7 5.9 -1.2 5.2 3.2 2.6 7.3 4.5 3.0 3.0 -0.5 3.1 -0.2
Europe and Central Asia 6.0 4.5 2.6 2.4 -3.3 4.6 5.7 4.7 5.9 3.8 3.4 3.0 1.8 -0.1 0.4 1.9 2.3 1.6
Latin America and Caribbean 0.8 1.0 -2.3 1.2 -4.8 -2.2 -1.0 2.2 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.5 -0.7 -2.6 -2.0 -1.4 -2.8 -2.4
Middle East and North Africa - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
South Asia 4.6 5.5 -2.5 8.0 5.3 -4.7 4.6 6.3 7.8 2.7 6.3 8.6 1.6 2.4 2.1 1.2 0.8 3.6
Sub-Saharan Africa 0.1 1.7 -0.4 9.7 5.0 -9.4 1.7 2.1 2.9 1.9 2.5 3.5 1.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 5.2
Inflation, sa 2
World 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.2 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.2
Advanced economies 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8
Emerging market and developing economies 3.2 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.3 2.8 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.8 3.0
Commodity-exporting EMDEs 3.3 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.8
Other EMDEs 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.2 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.7 2.9 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.9 3.1
East Asia and Pacific 2.9 3.2 3.8 4.1 3.3 2.2 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.2 2.5 1.8 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.7
Europe and Central Asia 2.4 2.6 2.2 2.8 2.0 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.4 3.0 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.9 3.3
Latin America and Caribbean 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.2 3.0 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.8
Middle East and North Africa 1.6 2.5 2.7 2.2 1.8 0.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.7
South Asia 3.8 3.9 4.4 4.1 4.1 5.5 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.0 3.9 4.7 3.8 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6
Sub-Saharan Africa 5.4 3.6 3.6 3.3 4.1 3.9 3.6 4.0 3.1 3.3 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0
2019
2018 2019 2018
2017 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Exports, nominal, US$, sa
World 10.4 9.5 -2.1 -1.8 -2.3 -3.8 10.8 10.1 11.9 6.9 4.5 10.9 2.4 -2.3 -0.3 -5.2 -2.0 -3.0
Advanced economies 9.7 8.3 -2.8 -4.7 -1.9 -4.5 9.6 9.3 10.1 5.1 1.4 9.1 0.8 -3.1 -2.6 -3.0 -4.8 -4.0
Emerging market and developing economies 11.8 11.8 -0.6 3.5 -3.0 -2.4 13.2 11.5 15.3 10.3 10.5 14.2 5.3 -0.7 4.1 -8.9 3.4 -1.2
Commodity-exporting EMDEs 17.6 14.8 -2.0 10.2 2.9 -19.4 15.4 16.2 22.8 13.4 9.7 18.5 8.9 3.4 -2.0 -1.3 -4.7 -1.6
Other EMDEs 9.5 10.5 -0.3 1.0 -5.3 4.9 12.2 9.6 12.3 9.0 10.8 12.5 3.9 -2.3 6.6 -11.7 6.7 -1.0
East Asia and Pacific 10.0 10.4 0.2 1.6 -8.8 2.1 11.6 10.5 12.6 9.0 11.1 13.6 3.0 -3.6 6.4 -16.3 8.5 -2.3
Europe and Central Asia 16.6 16.5 0.7 1.7 5.6 -4.8 19.9 14.0 23.7 13.5 11.1 16.5 10.9 3.2 -1.3 4.9 -1.4 -0.1
Latin America and Caribbean 11.9 9.2 -6.6 9.7 4.7 -10.9 7.4 6.5 12.4 9.5 6.0 10.3 7.6 3.2 3.1 -1.5 -5.0 0.8
Middle East and North Africa - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
South Asia 5.6 10.3 7.5 21.1 5.4 0.7 19.9 4.7 14.1 3.3 22.7 18.3 6.2 4.6 8.7 11.5 5.1 2.5
Sub-Saharan Africa 14.7 12.0 -5.7 12.8 -5.5 -15.4 14.3 16.2 16.7 12.5 9.8 14.6 5.3 0.3 -0.3 -4.4 -7.0 -
Imports, nominal, US$, sa
World 12.5 11.8 1.3 4.4 -0.2 -28.1 3.9 10.5 13.3 2.3 26.9 14.5 3.2 1.5 -5.1 -12.1 -2.4 -5.9
Advanced economies 9.7 9.7 -1.8 -0.1 3.8 -12.6 9.7 9.2 13.4 7.7 4.7 12.5 3.3 0.0 -1.9 -3.5 -3.2 -1.6
Emerging market and developing economies 13.8 12.7 2.6 6.4 -1.9 -33.9 1.7 11.0 13.3 0.0 37.9 15.4 3.1 2.1 -6.5 -15.6 -2.0 -7.7
Commodity-exporting EMDEs 13.0 12.7 6.7 6.6 2.3 -42.9 -2.0 10.7 11.9 -3.7 48.4 15.6 3.0 4.2 -8.0 -18.8 -1.0 -10.6
Other EMDEs 16.5 12.7 -10.0 5.6 -15.0 5.9 16.9 12.0 18.6 12.5 9.2 14.7 3.3 -5.2 -1.9 -4.5 -5.2 2.5
East Asia and Pacific 17.6 14.9 -12.9 11.9 -19.2 6.6 21.0 12.0 21.7 16.8 12.0 19.5 4.7 -5.3 -0.7 -6.7 -5.8 3.3
Europe and Central Asia 18.6 7.9 -15.1 -16.4 -1.0 8.7 9.9 7.9 6.9 -0.7 -1.3 1.9 -2.1 -8.7 -7.3 -4.0 -8.3 -1.7
Latin America and Caribbean 6.0 12.3 5.0 10.8 -1.1 -5.6 12.5 9.8 23.3 13.7 6.3 16.2 11.6 1.5 7.1 0.0 -0.7 0.5
Middle East and North Africa - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
South Asia 22.7 13.1 5.7 14.8 -15.0 -12.8 14.5 20.7 25.0 20.9 12.7 16.7 3.6 -0.1 -1.3 -6.0 -0.6 2.9
Sub-Saharan Africa 4.3 12.3 -11.2 4.1 10.3 - 10.4 9.2 22.0 8.9 9.3 19.3 14.0 -3.1 - - - -
International reserves, US$1
World 7.2 -0.4 -1.2 -0.6 0.1 1.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.8 0.2
Advanced economies 10.0 0.6 -0.8 0.0 0.1 1.5 -0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.7 0.4 0.4 0.8 -0.1 0.8 -
Emerging market and developing economies 5.3 -1.1 -1.5 -1.1 0.2 1.6 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.9 -0.9 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.2
Commodity-exporting EMDEs 3.6 - -0.5 -1.0 - - -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 0.2 -1.0 -0.3 0.5 - - - - -
Other EMDEs 6.1 -2.1 -2.0 -1.1 0.0 1.4 -0.8 -0.6 0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.0
East Asia and Pacific 5.6 -2.1 -1.4 -1.0 -0.1 1.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.8 -1.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.3 -0.1
Europe and Central Asia 10.3 3.9 -3.3 -0.9 4.0 1.5 -1.2 -1.6 0.9 -1.1 -0.8 -0.2 1.6 2.6 0.7 0.8 0.0 0.4
Latin America and Caribbean 2.2 -1.0 -1.9 -1.1 0.2 2.9 -0.3 -1.4 0.3 -0.2 -1.2 -0.1 0.5 -0.2 0.9 0.9 1.0 -0.1
Middle East and North Africa - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
South Asia 11.8 -4.8 -3.8 -2.1 -1.3 4.5 -2.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -1.9 -0.1 0.6 0.9 0.6 2.9 1.5
Sub-Saharan Africa 10.4 - 1.0 -6.3 - - 2.1 -1.9 -0.2 -3.3 -3.0 -3.0 0.3 - - - - -
2019
(Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period)
10
June 2019
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TABLE D: Financial Markets (Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period)
TABLE E: Commodity Prices
2018 2019 2018 MRV 1
2017 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Interest rates and LIBOR (percent)
U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.97 1.78 1.67 1.88 2.16 2.38 1.77 1.88 1.88 1.90 2.13 2.13 2.22 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38
ECB repo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
US$ LIBOR 3-months 1.26 2.31 2.34 2.34 2.63 2.69 2.33 2.34 2.32 2.35 2.46 2.65 2.79 2.78 2.68 2.61 2.59 2.53 2.31
EURIBOR 3-months -0.33 -0.32 -0.33 -0.32 -0.32 -0.31 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 -0.35
US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.33 2.91 2.92 2.92 3.03 2.65 2.91 2.89 2.89 3.00 3.16 3.12 2.83 2.71 2.68 2.57 2.53 2.39 2.00
German Bund, 10 yr 0.37 0.39 0.42 0.28 0.29 0.04 0.33 0.25 0.26 0.35 0.37 0.32 0.19 0.12 0.02 -0.03 -0.10 -0.17 -0.37
Spreads (basis points)
JP Morgan Emerging Markets 325 360 351 378 402 382 377 366 383 386 377 405 423 402 373 371 364 377 370
Asia 164 183 185 189 202 189 197 193 185 189 190 204 211 199 185 183 177 185 181
Europe 243 281 275 313 316 312 301 291 329 318 299 316 334 319 303 314 324 334 313
Latin America & Caribbean 429 471 455 487 523 500 486 471 493 498 492 528 549 519 493 488 486 505 511
Middle East 385 439 429 464 497 438 472 451 464 478 453 497 541 562 400 351 293 287 274
Africa 376 407 385 440 481 460 436 420 445 455 445 485 515 489 444 445 444 482 469
Stock Indices (end of period)
Global (MSCI) 508 456 505 524 456 509 505 520 524 524 484 491 456 491 503 509 525 492 523
Advanced Economies ($ Index) 2086 1884 2089 2184 1884 2108 2089 2153 2179 2184 2019 2041 1884 2028 2086 2108 2179 2046 2178
United States (S&P 500) 2668 2507 2718 2923 2507 2830 2718 2816 2902 2923 2712 2760 2507 2702 2798 2830 2939 2752 2950
Europe (S&P Euro 350) 1558 1368 1533 1548 1368 1535 1533 1581 1547 1548 1454 1450 1368 1452 1507 1535 1583 1493 1562
Japan (Nikkei 225) 22530 20019 22305 24021 20019 21206 22305 22554 22788 24021 21920 22351 20019 20773 21580 21206 22163 20601 21259
Emerging Market and Developing Economies (MSCI)
1139 966 1070 1048 966 1058 1070 1087 1055 1048 954 995 966 1050 1051 1058 1079 998 1053
EM Asia 577 485 552 537 485 538 552 553 546 537 476 503 485 521 529 538 548 498 525
EM Europe 341 292 312 313 292 314 312 319 294 313 293 301 292 325 318 314 321 324 340
EM Europe & Middle East 275 246 253 259 246 259 253 263 246 259 247 252 246 270 263 259 266 263 276
EM Latin America & Caribbean 2811 2566 2477 2577 2566 2746 2477 2702 2466 2577 2684 2600 2566 2948 2821 2746 2749 2684 2879
Exchange Rates (LCU / USD)
Advanced Economies
Euro Area 0.89 0.85 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.88 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.89
Japan 112.11 110.34 109.16 111.52 112.74 110.17 110.13 111.45 111.03 112.09 112.76 113.40 112.06 108.96 110.43 111.11 111.65 109.87 108.45
Emerging and Developing Economies
Brazil 3.19 3.65 3.61 3.95 3.81 3.77 3.79 3.82 3.93 4.10 3.76 3.80 3.89 3.74 3.72 3.84 3.90 4.00 3.90
China 6.76 6.61 6.38 6.81 6.92 6.75 6.47 6.72 6.85 6.86 6.93 6.94 6.88 6.79 6.74 6.71 6.72 6.86 6.93
Egypt 17.85 17.82 17.80 17.90 17.92 17.61 17.88 17.90 17.88 17.92 17.92 17.93 17.93 17.86 17.58 17.38 17.26 17.01 16.76
India 65.11 68.41 66.99 70.19 72.04 70.52 67.79 68.74 69.62 72.22 73.59 71.83 70.71 70.78 71.24 69.54 69.37 69.82 69.90
Russia 58.31 62.84 62.03 65.64 66.74 65.93 62.81 62.83 66.48 67.60 65.86 66.69 67.66 66.79 65.80 65.20 64.59 64.96 64.25
South Africa 13.31 13.25 12.65 14.09 14.31 14.02 13.33 13.39 14.13 14.75 14.54 14.10 14.31 13.85 13.83 14.38 14.15 14.45 14.81
Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate (index)
119.6 118.4 116.6 120.4 122.5 121.0 118.9 119.6 120.6 120.9 121.8 123.1 122.8 120.9 120.8 121.1 121.3 122.5 122.6
Sources: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, and World Bank. 1 MRV = most recent value.
2019
2018 2019 2018 MRV 1
2017 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Energy 2 68 87 90 93 84 77 91 92 90 96 97 82 73 74 77 80 84 82 82
Non-energy 2 84 85 89 83 81 82 88 84 83 81 82 81 81 81 83 82 83 81 81
Agriculture 2 87 87 91 85 83 83 89 86 85 83 83 82 83 84 84 83 83 82 82
Metals and minerals 2 79 84 88 80 79 80 88 81 79 79 81 79 77 77 82 83 83 80 74
Memo items:
Crude oil, average ($/bbl) 53 68 71 73 64 60 72 73 71 75 77 62 54 56 61 64 69 67 58
Gold ($/toz) 1258 1269 1307 1213 1229 1304 1282 1238 1202 1198 1215 1221 1250 1292 1320 1301 1286 1284 1284
Baltic Dry Index 1152 1346 1256 1602 1356 793 1352 1649 1710 1447 1545 1201 1322 1068 630 681 777 1032 1085
Sources: World Bank, World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Bloomberg. 1 MRV = most recent value. 2 Indexes, 2010 = 100. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet.
2019