global markets analysis for 2010 panos dantis. major markets 1. bonds 2. commodities 3. fx 4. stocks
TRANSCRIPT
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Global Markets Analysis for 2010
Panos Dantis
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Major Markets
1. Bonds2. Commodities 3. FX4. Stocks
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1.Bonds The majority of analysts expect
that 2010 will be a bad year for US Treasuries
BUT with a 10% unemployment , we are still almost twice the level consistent with non – inflationary growth.
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Bonds 2 Unemployment will remain high until
the economy starts creating 150,000 jobs per month
It needs 6 months for that. Even then, FED will bide its time Remember 1992 : it raised rates after
14 months the peak of unemployment (7.8%) and June 2003(6.3%)
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Bonds 3 Also deflation still remains a possibility
given the amount of slack in labor and product markets.
The withdrawal of unconventional policy support will no have a negative impact on
government bonds that is widely SO US TREASURIES ARE NOT A BUBBLE
and expect the 10 year yield to DROP to 2.3%
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2.Commodities The current pick up in inflation in the
major economies is mainly due to base effects of energy prices.
These base effects will soon fade out if oil prices remain around 70 – 75$ pb.
But since we expect $ to recover and global demand to disappoints, we think oil will drop back to around $50pb .
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Commodities – oil
We see 3 downside risks: Financial factors:speculative
pressures drove oil to 147$ pb. In July 2008.
If oil rises and fears of inflation and asset bubbles fade , oil prices should drop back in 2010.
Fundamental demand of oil is weak.
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Global Growth and oil We expect that growth in key
economies – US and China – to be firm until the middle of 2010.
But then the stimulus boost will end and the demand for oil should slow again.
When economies recover the supply response to increased demand –if any - will recover too.
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Oil price and USD/EURO rate
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Brent Futures
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Crude oil futures chart: 1983 - 2009
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What GS says….
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Commodities - Gold Gold is a seasonal asset. It has increased 11,6% on average
from September to February since the beginning of its Bull market in 2000.
All time classic asset Should be included to every
portfolio
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Gold – Long run facts Population has increased and more and
more people would like to have gold. Gold fundamentals remain very bullish Global mined supply declines Central banks are looking at Gold after
the crisis and have reduced gold sales.
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Gold - history
When gold hit 850& :\ The average US household income
<18K New houses average price = 76k New cars average = <6k So, 850 in 1980’s is not 850 today So 850 translates into 2,358 $ today
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Gold – Fed policy But with the excessive monetary
growth of FED , Money of zero maturity has increased 11,5 times since 1980.!!
So real Gold price highs is well above 2,358, close to 4,800$ in today's’ dollar terms
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Gold - 2010 However, for the next year there
are a few problems: China and South Korea central
banks are thinking of selling part of their gold
The ratio of GOLD/OIL = 15.4 The ratio Dow Jones / Gold = 9.2 on
10 average.
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GOLD - 2010
But BUY GOLD as a HEDGE against:
Runaway inflation USD collapse Any bubble market collapse A new bear or panic stock market.
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Gold Chart : 1833 - 1999
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Gold chart: 1975 -2009
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Commodities – Silver 1792 - 1999
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Silver 1985 - 2009
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Platinum: 1992 - 2009
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3.Forex – EURO / USD We often think that Fed’s monetary
expansion will lead to a USD collapse. The reality is more complicated The increased in USD supply is offset
by an increase in demand The additional liquidity has been held
within the banking system . Same happened in Japan between 2001 - 06
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Forex : EURO/USD Foreign demand for USD and dollar
assets will increase from countries where policy is less supportive like the euro –zone.
Fed’s policies have reduced a debt – deflation spiral, which is also positive for the currencies involved
So we expect EURO/USD = 1.30
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What GS says…
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GS:”Eur/USD very seldom moves above or below 2SD from fair value”
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FX : USD/JPY The % decline from the june high is
very similar of that of the August 98 peak.
At present levels there is good support Monthly oscillators are attempting to
diverge positively The downside risk is heavily
increasing.
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GS says: “the real key remains US short end yields”
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4. Stock markets US markets European Markets Asian ASE
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A. US Markets –major Indexes Dow Jones S&P 500 Nasdaq
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Dow Jones 10 years weekly
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Dow Jones daily
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Dow Jones Daily – zoom in
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Nasdaq 10 years weekly
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Nasdaq daily
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S&P 500 weekly – 10 years
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B. Europe – DAX weekly 10 years
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Dax Daily
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FTSE 20 daily
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CAC40 - daily
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C. Asia – Nikkei daily
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Asia – Hang Seng daily
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SSEC ( China) weekly 10 years
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D. The Greek Stock Market
Currently Is depending on The Hellenic government fiscal
policy The effectiveness of the Hellenic
government The support of foreign investors The support of EU officials The US stock markets
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and mainly on
The bond market situation
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We should not forget that While “ Emerging markets have been
viewed in the past as a source of systematic risk , they are now viewed as a source of stability and indeed a crucial driver of the global recovery” according to Capital Economics International Forum
That’s why our esoteric economic problem is taken so seriously globally.
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Latin America Short term external Debt
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Hellas vs California
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Hellas vs California According to FT: “Why is Greece such a
big problem for Eurozone since ..the far -worse California is not raising similar concerns about the US or USD?”
Greek economy is only 3% of eurozone California economy is 13,5% of US GDP
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The Paradox The US economy Allows fiscal
transfers between states to help the…weakest!
The eurozone ?
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Actually… Eurozone is only 11 years old, a child.. Greece is not a big problem to eurozone But EU officials over – reacted and confused
markets Financial markets are biased against euro
and will grab any chance to talk about the prospect of EMU breaking up
Eurozone politicians have much greater freedom to act because there is no single government.
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ADEX The OPEN INTEREST of FTASE20 Futures is crucial.. Generally speaking above 24 –
25,000 futures and certainly close to 30,000 futures means that selling pressure will increase in the short term at the spot market.
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FTASE 20 weekly -10 years
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FTASE 20 daily
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What about VIX ?
VIX is the benchmark index for US stock options
VIX = Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index
Measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P500
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VIX
All time high : 80,86 in November 2008, 2 months after the bankruptcy of
Lehman Brothers Has now dropped 72% for its historic high Is now 9% higher from its 15 - month low
on Nov 24th, 2009 The average price of VIX is 20,29 during
the last 20 years.
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VIX December 2010 puts @55 48,577
volume, of which 76% traded at ask price.
So buyers initiated the majority of transactions…
PUT 55 open Interest = 120,000 Why 55 strike? Is about half the price
of SPY = 111, the ETF of S&P500.
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One year implied volatility
On the S&P500 is 24,80 , that is 5,5 points higher than 30-day contracts, while the gap widened to 6,84 on November the 24th which as the HIGHEST in the LAST % YEARS.
The last time the gap approached current levels was in August 2008 = JUST BEFORE LEHMAN’S BANKRUPTCY
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Forecasting VIX Many economists and derivatives
traders expect a rise in VIX “ it will be a year of heightened
volatility…north of 30 …close to 40..because inventors underestimate risks of the Global economy”
Actually the cost of hedging is currently very low
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Forecasting Most of the times VIX dropped to 20 -22
it signalled an uptrend wave. Also S&P has advanced 63% since
March Profit Growth are projected to rise 25%
in 2010. Average P/E of S&P500 : 13,9% So: the odds are increased that S&P will
fall
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IF S&P 500 falls Under 1070 then a move towards
Simple Moving Average 200 is possible (960)
Global indexes will turn down to their SMO200.
In that case GD will not be able to move above 2401.
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S&P500 warning signals CBOE put/call ratio < 80 for a couple of
weeks ( today @0.90) Mini S&P futures > 3,5 m. for a couple
of weeks or > 5 m. for a couple of days VIX <20 for a couple of weeks
([email protected]) Remember : big call volume trades at
tops while big put volume trades at bottoms
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VIX daily
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VIX weekly
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S&P 500 Weekly zoom in
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S&P 500 daily
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Is there a correlation? GS supports “that an extended
topping process makes sense” An up trend in the USD means that
either yields break higher(2-year yields > 1.10 ) or S&P 500 < 1029.
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GS says : S&P 500 might topping..
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IF S&P 500 turns down, then Under 1070 then a move towards
Simple Moving Average 200 is possible (960)
Global indexes will turn down to their SMO200.
In that case GD will not be able to move above 2401.
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GD weekly –10 years
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GD - daily
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GD – Hourly
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ETE - daily