global economy moves along sluggishly...4 beijing (cbd) 180.76 5 moscow 171.53 6 beijing (finance...

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Page 1: Global economy moves along sluggishly...4 Beijing (CBD) 180.76 5 Moscow 171.53 6 Beijing (Finance Street) 166.89 7 Hong Kong (Kowloon) 158.72 8 Sao Paulo 144.75 9 New Delhi (CBD) 140.21
Page 2: Global economy moves along sluggishly...4 Beijing (CBD) 180.76 5 Moscow 171.53 6 Beijing (Finance Street) 166.89 7 Hong Kong (Kowloon) 158.72 8 Sao Paulo 144.75 9 New Delhi (CBD) 140.21

Global economy moves along sluggishly Real GDP year-over-year growth

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Percent

United StatesEuro Area

Global

Asia PacificForecast

Page 3: Global economy moves along sluggishly...4 Beijing (CBD) 180.76 5 Moscow 171.53 6 Beijing (Finance Street) 166.89 7 Hong Kong (Kowloon) 158.72 8 Sao Paulo 144.75 9 New Delhi (CBD) 140.21

Target interest rates in advanced economies stay low

Source: Federal Reserve Bank, September 2012.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Target interest rate (%)

United Kingdom

United States

Euro zone

Page 4: Global economy moves along sluggishly...4 Beijing (CBD) 180.76 5 Moscow 171.53 6 Beijing (Finance Street) 166.89 7 Hong Kong (Kowloon) 158.72 8 Sao Paulo 144.75 9 New Delhi (CBD) 140.21

Global real estate vs. other assets 1- and 5-year returns

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Office for National Statistics (ONS), U.K, Thomson Datastream.

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

IPD Global Index FTSEEPRA/NAREIT

CIBC Global BondIndex Fund

MSCI World Ex US FTSE 100

Percent

1 year 5 year

Page 5: Global economy moves along sluggishly...4 Beijing (CBD) 180.76 5 Moscow 171.53 6 Beijing (Finance Street) 166.89 7 Hong Kong (Kowloon) 158.72 8 Sao Paulo 144.75 9 New Delhi (CBD) 140.21

Prime and secondary rental growth forecasts Year-over-year growth, 2012

Sources: "Global foresight, 2012 global outlook“, DTZ research.

Page 6: Global economy moves along sluggishly...4 Beijing (CBD) 180.76 5 Moscow 171.53 6 Beijing (Finance Street) 166.89 7 Hong Kong (Kowloon) 158.72 8 Sao Paulo 144.75 9 New Delhi (CBD) 140.21

Office market: Americas the bright spot in Q2 2012 Office rent indices, quarter-over-quarter changes

Sources: "Market View: Global Office Indices”, CBRE research.

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Asia Pacific Americas Global EMEA

Percent

Q2 2011Q2 2012

Page 7: Global economy moves along sluggishly...4 Beijing (CBD) 180.76 5 Moscow 171.53 6 Beijing (Finance Street) 166.89 7 Hong Kong (Kowloon) 158.72 8 Sao Paulo 144.75 9 New Delhi (CBD) 140.21

Top 10 most expensive office markets Ranked by occupancy cost in US$/sq. ft./annum, Q1 2012

Sources: “Prime Office Occupancy Costs”, CBRE Research.

Rank Market Occ. Cost

1 Hong Kong (Central) 248.83 2 London (West End) 220.15 3 Tokyo 186.49 4 Beijing (CBD) 180.76 5 Moscow 171.53 6 Beijing (Finance Street) 166.89 7 Hong Kong (Kowloon) 158.72 8 Sao Paulo 144.75 9 New Delhi (CBD) 140.21

10 London (City) 131.51

Page 8: Global economy moves along sluggishly...4 Beijing (CBD) 180.76 5 Moscow 171.53 6 Beijing (Finance Street) 166.89 7 Hong Kong (Kowloon) 158.72 8 Sao Paulo 144.75 9 New Delhi (CBD) 140.21

Global 50 index largest annual changes Prime office space occupancy cost, Q1 2012

Sources: “Prime Office Occupancy Costs”, CBRE Research.

Market Percent Beijing (CBD), China 49.4

Beijing (Finance St), China 42.0 Guangzhou, China 40.4

SF(Downtown), U.S. 34.0 SF(Peninsula), U.S. 32.7

Market Percent Hong Kong (Central) -17.2

Abu Dhabi, UAE -16.7 Thessaloniki, Greece -16.3

Dublin, Ireland -13.6 Athens, Greece -13.5

Top 5 increases Top 5 decreases

Page 9: Global economy moves along sluggishly...4 Beijing (CBD) 180.76 5 Moscow 171.53 6 Beijing (Finance Street) 166.89 7 Hong Kong (Kowloon) 158.72 8 Sao Paulo 144.75 9 New Delhi (CBD) 140.21

International house prices Inflation-adjusted, year-over-year changes

Sources: “Global Real Estate Trends”, Scotiabank Group.

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1

Percent Ireland Spain United Kingdom United States

Page 10: Global economy moves along sluggishly...4 Beijing (CBD) 180.76 5 Moscow 171.53 6 Beijing (Finance Street) 166.89 7 Hong Kong (Kowloon) 158.72 8 Sao Paulo 144.75 9 New Delhi (CBD) 140.21

U.S. apartment prices grow rapidly Moody's/RCA Commercial Property Price Index, 2000 Dec.=100

Sources: Moody's Investors Service.

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

2010 2011 2012

Apartment

Office

Retail

Industrial

Page 11: Global economy moves along sluggishly...4 Beijing (CBD) 180.76 5 Moscow 171.53 6 Beijing (Finance Street) 166.89 7 Hong Kong (Kowloon) 158.72 8 Sao Paulo 144.75 9 New Delhi (CBD) 140.21

U.S. delinquency rate has declined, but still high

Sources: American Council of Life Insurers, Moody’s Analytics.

4005006007008009001,0001,1001,2001,3001,400

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1

Thou

sand

s

Percent Thousands of loans

Delinquency rate (L)

Foreclosures(R)

Page 12: Global economy moves along sluggishly...4 Beijing (CBD) 180.76 5 Moscow 171.53 6 Beijing (Finance Street) 166.89 7 Hong Kong (Kowloon) 158.72 8 Sao Paulo 144.75 9 New Delhi (CBD) 140.21

China: home price index for 70 metros Changes from previous year

Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

2 1 2 3 3 3 0 0 1 2 4 814

2737

4654 57 57 53

68 68 68 67 67 67 68 70 69 67 66 6253

3728 23

15 11 11 15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

01/2011 04/2011 07/2011 10/2011 01/2012 04/2012 07/2012

Increased

Remainedthe sameDecreased

Page 13: Global economy moves along sluggishly...4 Beijing (CBD) 180.76 5 Moscow 171.53 6 Beijing (Finance Street) 166.89 7 Hong Kong (Kowloon) 158.72 8 Sao Paulo 144.75 9 New Delhi (CBD) 140.21

China: rising inventory of homes

Sources: “China’s Housing Market: Growing Policy Concerns and Challenges”, Barth, Lea and Li.

-0.4-5.4

-15.3

55.5

7.8 8.3

35.8

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Inventory (left axis) Change in inventory (right axis)Millions of sqm Percent

Page 14: Global economy moves along sluggishly...4 Beijing (CBD) 180.76 5 Moscow 171.53 6 Beijing (Finance Street) 166.89 7 Hong Kong (Kowloon) 158.72 8 Sao Paulo 144.75 9 New Delhi (CBD) 140.21

Europe: amidst the turmoil EU-15 rent index, year-over-year changes

Sources: “Market review: EMEA rents and yields”, CBRE Research.

Page 15: Global economy moves along sluggishly...4 Beijing (CBD) 180.76 5 Moscow 171.53 6 Beijing (Finance Street) 166.89 7 Hong Kong (Kowloon) 158.72 8 Sao Paulo 144.75 9 New Delhi (CBD) 140.21

London maintains a vigorous retail market Prime retail rent annual changes, Q2 2011- Q2 2012

Sources: “Market review: EMEA rents and yields”, CBRE Research.

28.6

11.1 10.0 8.0 6.5 5.3 4.0 3.5 1.7 0.0

-10.0-15-10-505

101520253035

LondonCity

LondonWest End

Paris Berlin Munich Milan EU-15 Vienna Cop. Barcelona Dublin

Percent

Page 16: Global economy moves along sluggishly...4 Beijing (CBD) 180.76 5 Moscow 171.53 6 Beijing (Finance Street) 166.89 7 Hong Kong (Kowloon) 158.72 8 Sao Paulo 144.75 9 New Delhi (CBD) 140.21

Global industrial property market recovered modestly

Sources: “Global MarketView, Q2 2012”, CBRE Research.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Global industrial rent index 2001Q1=100 (L)

Index quarterly change (R)

Page 17: Global economy moves along sluggishly...4 Beijing (CBD) 180.76 5 Moscow 171.53 6 Beijing (Finance Street) 166.89 7 Hong Kong (Kowloon) 158.72 8 Sao Paulo 144.75 9 New Delhi (CBD) 140.21

Investment transaction volumes hold up

Sources: "Global foresight, 2012 global outlook“, DTZ research.

154 144

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

US$ billions Europe US Asia Pacific

Page 18: Global economy moves along sluggishly...4 Beijing (CBD) 180.76 5 Moscow 171.53 6 Beijing (Finance Street) 166.89 7 Hong Kong (Kowloon) 158.72 8 Sao Paulo 144.75 9 New Delhi (CBD) 140.21

Personal consumption expenditures Year-over-year change, constant price

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Office for National Statistics (ONS), U.K, Thomson Datastream.

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2009 2010 2011 2012

Percent

United States

Euro AreaUnited Kingdom