global climate change consequences for cerrado tree species marinez ferreira de siqueira centro de...
DESCRIPTION
Climate Change and Biodiversity Climate change involve a complex combination of warming, augmented climatic variability, extreme event, etc. Biodiversity consequences are unknown, although are thought to be potentially serious involving drastic reductions and extinctions for many species.TRANSCRIPT
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Global Climate Change Consequences for Cerrado Tree Species
Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira
Centro de Referência em Informação Ambiental - CRIA
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Biodiversity Consequences of Global Climate Change
In this study we applied a technique that can be called ecological niche modeling to generate predictive models of species’ potential future geographic distributions.
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Climate Change and Biodiversity
• Climate change involve a complex combination of warming, augmented climatic variability, extreme event, etc.
• Biodiversity consequences are unknown, although are thought to be potentially serious involving drastic reductions and extinctions for many species.
![Page 4: Global Climate Change Consequences for Cerrado Tree Species Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira Centro de Referência em Informação Ambiental - CRIA](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052607/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8ed/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Methodology• HadCM2 General Circulation Model – two scenarios
used– HHGSDX50 - 0.5%/yr CO2, sulphate aerosol forcing – HHGGAX50 - 1%/yr CO2, no sulfate aerosols forcing
• 0.5 x 0.5 degree resolution• Nine base environmental coverages• 162 species – all trees with >30 points (Projeto de
Cooperação Técnica Conservação e Manejo da Biodiversidade do Bioma Cerrado – EMBRAPA Cerrados – UnB – Ibama/DFID e RBGE/Reino Unido database)
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Ecological Niche Modeling and Predicting Geographic Distributions
Geo
grap
hy
E
colo
gy
Distributional points
GARP
Precipitation
Tem
pera
ture
Ecological niche model
Distributional prediction
Changed climate projection
Projectclimate change
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Methodology• Build ecological models for each species using
GARP based on present-day coverages• Predict and characterize present-day geographic
distribution of each species• Adjust geographic coverages according to
projections of large-scale models of global climate change
• Project distributions of each species onto adjusted geographic coverages
• Compare and contrast present-day and projected distributions across the entire suite of species
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Present Temperature Regime
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Projected Changes in Temperature
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Present Precipitation Regime
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Projected Precipitation Changes
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Atlapetes virenticeps Distributional Points
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Atlapetes virenticeps:Rule set for prediction
0 r 0.50 0.99 28.55 0.35 0.504IF - Elev*0.26 r + Precip*0.19 r - Temp*0.10 rTHEN Taxon=BACKGROUND
4 r 0.53 0.86 23.58 0.51 0.314IF + Elev*0.32 r - Precip*0.19 r - Temp*0.10 rTHEN Taxon=PRESENT
1 r 0.49 0.91 26.32 0.39 0.122IF - Elev*0.02 r + Precip*0.28 r - Temp*0.30 rTHEN Taxon=BACKGROUND
3 m 0.49 0.85 23.73 0.44 0.028IF Elev=[1482,3360]r AND Precip=[ 1, 4]r AND Temp=[ 2, 4]rTHEN Taxon=PRESENT
6 d 0.49 0.86 20.90 0.33 0.019IF Elev=[1937,3241]rTHEN Taxon=PRESENT
2 d 0.49 0.85 23.78 0.44 0.013IF Elev=[ 0,2727]r AND Precip=[ 4, 9]rTHEN Taxon=BACKGROUND
5 d 0.48 0.83 22.11 0.41 0.000IF Elev=[1640,2866]r AND Precip=[ 1, 4]r AND Temp=[ 2, 5]rTHEN Taxon=PRESENT
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Atlapetes virenticeps Predicted Geographic Distribution
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Atlapetes virenticeps:Rule set for prediction
0 r 0.50 0.99 28.55 0.35 0.504IF - Elev*0.26 r + Precip*0.19 r - Temp*0.10 rTHEN Taxon=BACKGROUND
4 r 0.53 0.86 23.58 0.51 0.314IF + Elev*0.32 r - Precip*0.19 r - Temp*0.10 rTHEN Taxon=PRESENT
1 r 0.49 0.91 26.32 0.39 0.122IF - Elev*0.02 r + Precip*0.28 r - Temp*0.30 rTHEN Taxon=BACKGROUND
3 m 0.49 0.85 23.73 0.44 0.028IF Elev=[1482,3360]r AND Precip=[ 1, 4]r AND Temp=[ 2, 4]rTHEN Taxon=PRESENT
6 d 0.49 0.86 20.90 0.33 0.019IF Elev=[1937,3241]rTHEN Taxon=PRESENT
2 d 0.49 0.85 23.78 0.44 0.013IF Elev=[ 0,2727]r AND Precip=[ 4, 9]rTHEN Taxon=BACKGROUND
5 d 0.48 0.83 22.11 0.41 0.000IF Elev=[1640,2866]r AND Precip=[ 1, 4]r AND Temp=[ 2, 5]rTHEN Taxon=PRESENT
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Atlapetes virenticeps Model Projected on Adjusted Coverages
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Atlapetes virenticeps Before vs. After
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Examples of predictions of present (1961-1990) and future (2055) distributions of Acosmium subelegans
Area projected to remain habitable in 2055 (AX scenario)
Area projected to remain habitable in 2055 (DX scenario)
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Examples of predictions of present (1961-1990) and future (2055) distributions of cerrado tree species
Qualea parvifolia
Rapanea guianensis
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Patterns of predicted species richness among the 162 species of cerrado trees analyzed in the core
distributional area of cerrado at the present (1961-1990)
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HHGSDX50 climate change scenario = 144 species
HHGGAX50 climate change scenario = 106 species
Patterns of predicted species richness in a climate change scenario
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Consequences for the 162 tree species analysed
• DX Scenario:– 18 species were predicted to end up without
habitable areas (extinction in cerrado).– 91 species were predicted to decline by >90% in
potential distributional area in the cerrado region.• AX Scenario:
– 56 were predicted to end up without habitable areas in the cerrado region (extinction in cerrado).
– 123 species were predicted to decline by >90% in potential distributional area in the cerrado region.
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0
25
50
75
100
0 25 50 75 100
Percent of distributional area (DX scenario)
Per
cent
of d
istri
butio
nal a
rea
(AX
sce
nario
)
Relationship of severity of prediction of climate change consequences in the HHGSDX50 and HHGGAX50 scenarios.
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No dispersal
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200
HHGSDX50
HH
GG
AX50
Mexican Birds, Mammals, Butterflies
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Canada Butterflies – Current Species Richness
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Compare Maximum Species Richness:
Present with HSDX 2020
Present
2020
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Steller’s Jay before
Mountains vs Flatlands
Steller’s Jay afterPygmy Nuthatch beforePygmy Nuthatch after
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Baird’s Sparrow before
Mountains vs Flatlands
Baird’s Sparrow afterLesser Prairie-Chicken beforeLesser Prairie-Chicken after
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Mountains vs Flatlands
Percent Change - No Dispersal
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Percent change
Freq
uenc
y
Centroid Distance - No Dispersal
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Distance (km)Fr
eque
ncy
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Climate Change and Biodiversity• Species respond in manners that are quite
individual to climate change ... General tendencies are not absolute
• Seriousness of effects varies drastically among regions
• Effects appear to be in general worse in flatlands regions, and not as serious in montane regions
• Conservation implications remain almost completely unexplored ...
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Hotspot of Predicted Species Richness among Cerrado Tree Species at Present
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Prioritization of areas for conservation in the face of changing climates, based on DX scenario of
global climate change
87 species38 species
7 species
6 species
3 species
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Prioritization of areas for conservation in the face of changing climates, based on AX scenario of
global climate change
63 species 32 species
8 species
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Hotspot of Predicted Species Richness among Cerrado Tree Species at Present
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HHGSDX50 climate change scenario = 145 species
HHGGAX50 climate change scenario = 108 species
Patterns of predicted species richness in a climate change scenario
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São Paulo Museum of Cerrado Tree Diversity????
Lightest red = 81-120 sepcies
Light red = 121 – 140 species
Red = > 140 species
Black = patches of the cerrado vegetation type
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Acknowledgments
Many thanks to the team of researchers involved in the Projeto de Cooperação Técnica Conservação e Manejo da Biodiversidade do Bioma Cerrado – EMBRAPA Cerrados – UnB – Ibama/DFID e RBGE/Reino Unido for their generosity in making occurrence data available to us.
Prof. Dr. A. Townsend Peterson - Natural History Museum and Biodiversity Research Center, The University of Kansas, to help with modelling.