Green Economy for Agricultural Water Development through

Optimisation

Michael Gilmont and Marta Antonelli, King’s College London

UEA Water Security/The Irrigation & Water Forum Water and the Green Economy

8 November 2013, Institute of Civil Engineers, London.

Outline

• Global Water Use

• Opportunity Costs to inform allocation

• Water development trajectories

• A new pathway of sustainable intensification of water

• Challenges and Conclusions

70% to

agriculture (up to 85%) 11%

Social

19%

Industry

Green Water Blue

Water 20% Agricultural Water

Footprint

Global Water Use Agricultural Production

Predominantly Food Blue Water Uses

Food and Non-food

Sources: FAO 2013; Fader et al. 2011

Green water underpins food security globally (farmers know this) although its policy role has been neglected in water scarcity and security analyses until c.2010

Root zone water:

rainfed agriculture

80% Agricultural

Water Footprint

Map of global irrigated area

Map of global rainfed area

Potential for improvement of Green Water in ME and Africa

0.0 5000.0 10000.0 15000.0 20000.0 25000.0 30000.0 35000.0 40000.0

DjiboutiBahrainKuwait

QatarSwaziland

Palestinian TerritoryBotswana

LebanonJordan

GambiaLesothoNamibiaBurundiRwanda

LibyaZambia

BeninMalawiGuinea

SenegalEgyptChad

ZimbabweSaudi ArabiaBurkina FasoMozambique

TunisiaMali

Syrian Arab RepublicGhana

CameroonUgandaAlgeria

MoroccoUnited Republic of Tanzania

EthiopiaNiger

South AfricaSudan and South Sudan

Nigeria

Area (k.ha)

National Cultivation types (Irrigated and Non-Irrigated) Listed according to total cultivation area (largest to smallest)

Irrigated (k.ha)

Non-Irrigated

Food-water & non-food water

• Non-Food Water generally has higher value per drop than Food Water.

• Non-Food Water can only be Blue Water.

• Food Water can be either Blue or Green Water.

Food-water security and non-food security are only

partially dependent on local availability of water resources. They are more related to the effectiveness of

their allocation and management (Allan 2013).

Difference in application and substitutability provides avenue for more effective allocation of water enabling

sustainable intensification.

Opportunity cost analysis for Water Allocation

• Blue water resources: Many alternative uses: irrigation, industry, households --> higher

opportunity cost;

Agricultural use of blue water: lowest economic value among possible uses and associated with over-allocation and negative externalities, therefore inefficient in terms of opportunity cost

• Green water resources: Alternative uses: agriculture, vegetation --> lower opportunity

cost;

Rainfed agriculture is generally efficient in terms of opportunity cost.

Opportunity cost is defined as the value of the alternative that is foregone whenever a choice between different allocation options

is made. This concept can be used to highlight the relationship between scarce water resources and alternative choices.

The challenge: how to meet future needs in a sustainable way?

• Growing Demand for water – population growth; water-intensive diets; water intensive lifestyles, food waste.

• Limited Supply – Climate change, environmental degradation, environmental protection, marginal returns on new resources, Land and Water resource supply.

What is needed • Generation of greater production from current or less blue water

resource use, i.e. ‘sustainable intensification’, through better water resource management.

• Consideration of competing social, economic, environmental demands of water informed by opportunity cost analysis.

• Realised in part by Optimisation of green water use. Huge potential for improvements in Africa in terms of ET contribution, 10-30% efficiency 60% (Falkenmark and Rockstrom, 2006; Rockstrom et al. 2009)

Sustainable intensification of rainfed agriculture development can increase production while limiting environmental impacts.

Source: Siebert and Doll 2010

Optimise water allocation, including Green/Blue Water allocation through Opportunity Cost Analysis to sustainably intensify

agricultural production; a Green Economy for water development.

Water development trajectories

Advanced Semi-Arid Economies W

ate

r In

pu

t a

nd

Pro

du

cti

on

Ou

tpu

t L

eve

ls

Time

Production Growth

continues slowly through

efficiency

‘Gap’ between water use

and production made up

through efficiency, “X”

Environmentally Sustainable

Use Level

Politically Sustainable

Use Level

Blue Water Use Trajectory

Production Output

Business as usual growth

Environmentally Sustainable

reduction

New development pathway: Optimising Water Allocation

Wa

ter

Inp

ut

an

d P

rod

uc

tio

n O

utp

ut

Le

ve

ls

Time

Traditional Blue Water Use Trajectory

Production Output

Revised Blue Water Use Trajectory

Efficiency gains ƩXn

incorporated throughout

development trajectory,

rather than post-

mobilisation redevelopment

X1

X2

X3

X4

X5

X6

Potential ways of delivering sustainable intensification justified through

Opportunity Cost Analysis

Integrated land and water management

Conjunctive development of green and blue water resources

Water harvesting (in situ and ex situ)

Crop yield increase through agricultural research

Policy reform and increased investments in rainfed areas

Challenges • Pricing of water and rules of investment – while water

remains underpriced, including its environmental cost, full development cost will not be realised.

• Accountability and governance – Adoption alternative pathways will require revised priorities from existing agricultural and water development structures.

• Technology Transfer – efficient irrigation technologies and agricultural management practices, including rainfed agricultural improvement, can be more capital intensive.

• Politics – changes in priorities and practices contested and require time (possibly inter-generational).

Conclusions

Green water production forms majority of global agriculture and has significant potential for delivering higher outputs.

Opportunity cost analysis demonstrates that development of green water presents a powerful avenue for delivering Sustainable Intensification of agriculture.

Opportunity cost analysis provides rationale for adopting initially higher-cost development options.

Hesitate to Irrigate Analyse to Optimise.

Pay Once not Twice for Agricultural Production Capacity.

Thank You

• Antonelli, M., Gilmont, M., and Roson, R., 2012. Water’s Green Economy: alternative pathways for water resource development in agriculture. L’Europe en formation, Autumn 2012, no. 365. doi:10.3917/eufor.365.0023.

• Barry B., Olaleye A. O., Zougmore R., and Fatondji D. 2008. Rainwater harvesting technologies in the Sahelian zone of West Africa and the potential for outscaling. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute, 40p (IWMI Working Paper 126).

• Falkenmark, M. and Rockström, J. 2006. The New Blue and Green Water Paradigm: Breaking New Ground for Water Resources Planning and Management, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, May-June, pp. 129-132.

• FAO (2006), World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050 – Interim Report – Prospects for Food, Nutrition, Agriculture and Major Commodity Groups, Food and Agriculture organisation of the United Nations, Rome.

• Gilmont, M., Antonelli M, and Greco, F., 2012. A development pathway to optimise sustainability of water investment and minimise social cost. International Conference on Food Security in Dry Lands, Doha, November 14-15. http://tinyurl.com/nr2xzyt

• Gilmont, M., and Antonelli, M., 2012. Analyse to Optimise: Sustainable intensification of agricultural production through investment in integrated land and water management in Africa. In: J. A. Allan et al. eds. Handbook of Land and Water Grabs in Africa. London: Routledge. p.406-418.

Michael Gilmont: mgilmont@gmail.com Marta Antonelli: martaantonelli84@gmail.com