Green Economy for Agricultural Water Development through
Optimisation
Michael Gilmont and Marta Antonelli, King’s College London
UEA Water Security/The Irrigation & Water Forum Water and the Green Economy
8 November 2013, Institute of Civil Engineers, London.
Outline
• Global Water Use
• Opportunity Costs to inform allocation
• Water development trajectories
• A new pathway of sustainable intensification of water
• Challenges and Conclusions
70% to
agriculture (up to 85%) 11%
Social
19%
Industry
Green Water Blue
Water 20% Agricultural Water
Footprint
Global Water Use Agricultural Production
Predominantly Food Blue Water Uses
Food and Non-food
Sources: FAO 2013; Fader et al. 2011
Green water underpins food security globally (farmers know this) although its policy role has been neglected in water scarcity and security analyses until c.2010
Root zone water:
rainfed agriculture
80% Agricultural
Water Footprint
Potential for improvement of Green Water in ME and Africa
0.0 5000.0 10000.0 15000.0 20000.0 25000.0 30000.0 35000.0 40000.0
DjiboutiBahrainKuwait
QatarSwaziland
Palestinian TerritoryBotswana
LebanonJordan
GambiaLesothoNamibiaBurundiRwanda
LibyaZambia
BeninMalawiGuinea
SenegalEgyptChad
ZimbabweSaudi ArabiaBurkina FasoMozambique
TunisiaMali
Syrian Arab RepublicGhana
CameroonUgandaAlgeria
MoroccoUnited Republic of Tanzania
EthiopiaNiger
South AfricaSudan and South Sudan
Nigeria
Area (k.ha)
National Cultivation types (Irrigated and Non-Irrigated) Listed according to total cultivation area (largest to smallest)
Irrigated (k.ha)
Non-Irrigated
Food-water & non-food water
• Non-Food Water generally has higher value per drop than Food Water.
• Non-Food Water can only be Blue Water.
• Food Water can be either Blue or Green Water.
Food-water security and non-food security are only
partially dependent on local availability of water resources. They are more related to the effectiveness of
their allocation and management (Allan 2013).
Difference in application and substitutability provides avenue for more effective allocation of water enabling
sustainable intensification.
Opportunity cost analysis for Water Allocation
• Blue water resources: Many alternative uses: irrigation, industry, households --> higher
opportunity cost;
Agricultural use of blue water: lowest economic value among possible uses and associated with over-allocation and negative externalities, therefore inefficient in terms of opportunity cost
• Green water resources: Alternative uses: agriculture, vegetation --> lower opportunity
cost;
Rainfed agriculture is generally efficient in terms of opportunity cost.
Opportunity cost is defined as the value of the alternative that is foregone whenever a choice between different allocation options
is made. This concept can be used to highlight the relationship between scarce water resources and alternative choices.
The challenge: how to meet future needs in a sustainable way?
• Growing Demand for water – population growth; water-intensive diets; water intensive lifestyles, food waste.
• Limited Supply – Climate change, environmental degradation, environmental protection, marginal returns on new resources, Land and Water resource supply.
What is needed • Generation of greater production from current or less blue water
resource use, i.e. ‘sustainable intensification’, through better water resource management.
• Consideration of competing social, economic, environmental demands of water informed by opportunity cost analysis.
• Realised in part by Optimisation of green water use. Huge potential for improvements in Africa in terms of ET contribution, 10-30% efficiency 60% (Falkenmark and Rockstrom, 2006; Rockstrom et al. 2009)
Sustainable intensification of rainfed agriculture development can increase production while limiting environmental impacts.
Source: Siebert and Doll 2010
Optimise water allocation, including Green/Blue Water allocation through Opportunity Cost Analysis to sustainably intensify
agricultural production; a Green Economy for water development.
Advanced Semi-Arid Economies W
ate
r In
pu
t a
nd
Pro
du
cti
on
Ou
tpu
t L
eve
ls
Time
Production Growth
continues slowly through
efficiency
‘Gap’ between water use
and production made up
through efficiency, “X”
Environmentally Sustainable
Use Level
Politically Sustainable
Use Level
Blue Water Use Trajectory
Production Output
Business as usual growth
Environmentally Sustainable
reduction
New development pathway: Optimising Water Allocation
Wa
ter
Inp
ut
an
d P
rod
uc
tio
n O
utp
ut
Le
ve
ls
Time
Traditional Blue Water Use Trajectory
Production Output
Revised Blue Water Use Trajectory
Efficiency gains ƩXn
incorporated throughout
development trajectory,
rather than post-
mobilisation redevelopment
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
X6
Potential ways of delivering sustainable intensification justified through
Opportunity Cost Analysis
Integrated land and water management
Conjunctive development of green and blue water resources
Water harvesting (in situ and ex situ)
Crop yield increase through agricultural research
Policy reform and increased investments in rainfed areas
Challenges • Pricing of water and rules of investment – while water
remains underpriced, including its environmental cost, full development cost will not be realised.
• Accountability and governance – Adoption alternative pathways will require revised priorities from existing agricultural and water development structures.
• Technology Transfer – efficient irrigation technologies and agricultural management practices, including rainfed agricultural improvement, can be more capital intensive.
• Politics – changes in priorities and practices contested and require time (possibly inter-generational).
Conclusions
Green water production forms majority of global agriculture and has significant potential for delivering higher outputs.
Opportunity cost analysis demonstrates that development of green water presents a powerful avenue for delivering Sustainable Intensification of agriculture.
Opportunity cost analysis provides rationale for adopting initially higher-cost development options.
Hesitate to Irrigate Analyse to Optimise.
Pay Once not Twice for Agricultural Production Capacity.
Thank You
• Antonelli, M., Gilmont, M., and Roson, R., 2012. Water’s Green Economy: alternative pathways for water resource development in agriculture. L’Europe en formation, Autumn 2012, no. 365. doi:10.3917/eufor.365.0023.
• Barry B., Olaleye A. O., Zougmore R., and Fatondji D. 2008. Rainwater harvesting technologies in the Sahelian zone of West Africa and the potential for outscaling. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute, 40p (IWMI Working Paper 126).
• Falkenmark, M. and Rockström, J. 2006. The New Blue and Green Water Paradigm: Breaking New Ground for Water Resources Planning and Management, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, May-June, pp. 129-132.
• FAO (2006), World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050 – Interim Report – Prospects for Food, Nutrition, Agriculture and Major Commodity Groups, Food and Agriculture organisation of the United Nations, Rome.
• Gilmont, M., Antonelli M, and Greco, F., 2012. A development pathway to optimise sustainability of water investment and minimise social cost. International Conference on Food Security in Dry Lands, Doha, November 14-15. http://tinyurl.com/nr2xzyt
• Gilmont, M., and Antonelli, M., 2012. Analyse to Optimise: Sustainable intensification of agricultural production through investment in integrated land and water management in Africa. In: J. A. Allan et al. eds. Handbook of Land and Water Grabs in Africa. London: Routledge. p.406-418.
Michael Gilmont: [email protected] Marta Antonelli: [email protected]