gazprom - gas export and enhancing reliability of gas ......2014/06/03 · december 31, 2013...
TRANSCRIPT
Press Conference, June 3, 2014
Gas Export and Enhancing Reliability of Gas Supply to Europe
2
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
мл
рд
. ку
б. м
Диапазон прогнозов добычи Диапазон прогнозов потребления
Консенсус-прогноз добычи Консенсус-прогноз потребления Production forecast spread Production consensus forecast
Consumption forecast spread Consumption consensus forecast
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014**
158.8 168.5142.9 138.6
150.3139.9
161.5 158.4
Gazprom Group’s gas supplies to Europe* Gazprom Group’s gas supplies to CIS and Baltic States
bcm
$
per
tcm
$302 $383 $402
* European states, including Turkey, excluding former USSR republics
** Estimate
+168 bcm +225 bcm
Extending gap between
domestic production and
consumption in Europe
Export Volumes Fluctuation
According to consensus forecast***, Europe’s demand for extra gas imports will amount to:
+168 bcm in 2025 +225 bcm in 2035
$296 $410 $273
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014**
43.0 39.2
54.6
68.0 71.1 64.4
59.4 56.4 bcm
$
per
tcm
$235 $298 $308 $205 $187 $109 $387 $272
Source: Gazprom estimates
*** Based on Cera, IEA, EIA, Eurogas, Cedigaz and EC scenarios.
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Gas Price Fluctuation
Prospective Gazprom Group’s share at European market
Source: Gazprom estimates
2013
30%
70%
2030
32%
68%
30%
70%
Gazprom Other suppliers
2020
* European countries, including Turkey, excluding former USSR republics
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
4.7 6.1
11.2
16.0
21.2 19.9
15.3
Gas price for CIS and Baltic
states, USD bln
Gas price for Europe*, USD bln
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
39.5
63.8
42.5 43.9
57.6 55.9 63.1
Germany 41.0
Turkey 26.7
Italy 25.3 UK 16.6
Poland 12.9
France 8.6
Czech Republic 7.9
Hungary 6.0
Slovakia 5.5
Austria 5.2
Finland 3.5
Bulgaria 2.9
Greece 2.6
Netherlands 2.9
Other 5.0
Italy demonstrated
most rapid growth
versus 2012 (40%
increment)
Value of gas supplied to
countries beyond CIS
exceeded USD 63 bln in
2013
Gas supplied to countries beyond CIS (bcm)
2013 Outcomes per Countries: Europe*
* European countries, including Turkey, excluding former USSR republics
Ukraine 25.8 Belarus 19.8
Lithuania 2.7
Moldova 2.4
Armenia 1.7
Latvia 1.1
Kazakhstan 4.7 Estonia 0.7
Georgia 0.2
South Ossetia 0.03
Estonia (13.6%
increment) and South
Ossetia (9.6% increment)
showed most rapid
growth versus 2012
Proceeds from gas
supplied to CIS countries
reached USD 15.3 bln in
2013
Gas supplied to CIS countries (bcm)
2013 Outcomes per Countries: CIS and Baltic states
Lack of transit states: decreasing Russian gas transmission costs, avoiding potential political risks – most reliable supplies to consumers in Western Europe
Above 15 bcm of gas delivered through Nord Stream since early 2014
Entire Nord Stream gas transmission system, including German onshore extensions (NEL and OPAL pipelines), is capable of full load operation since November, 2013
Gazprom is capable to provide 100% load of Nord Stream. EC inconsistent actions result in inefficient usage of existing gas transmission infrastructure in Europe: due to valid restriction gas volumes applied for transmission should not exceed 50% of total OPAL capacity
Diversifying Routes: Nord Stream
Diversifying Routes: South Stream
• First joint of Bulgarian section welded near Rasovo compressor station on October 31, 2013
• Agreements on purchasing pipes for first and second pipeline branches signed on January 29, 2014 and March 14, 2014 respectively
• First branch construction contract with Saipem signed on March 14, 2014. Second branch construction contract with Allseas Group signed on April 29, 2014
* Particulars as of December 31, 2010 and December 31, 2013
Bergermeer UGS (Netherlands) partially commissioned in April, 2014. It became one of core link in consumers’ supply chain through Nord Stream. USG will reach full capacity in 2015.
Asset swap transaction between Gazprom and Wintershall Holding is scheduled to be completed in 2014, resulting in rising Gazprom’s share in European gas storage joint venture Astora up to 100%.
Gazprom Group keeps on constructing Katharina and Etzel UGS in Germany and Damborice UGS in Czechia.
Extending UGS Capacities Abroad: Reliability and Flexibility of Export Supplies
Particulars Countries beyond CIS*
2010/2011 2013/2014
Working gas capacity used by Gazprom, bcm 2.5 3.6
Maximum daily withdrawal rate, mcm 30.0 51.3
9
LNG and CNG as vehicle fuel means: - considerable fuel costs reduction - tiny emissions (conformance to Euro-6) - reliable and proven technologies - sufficient gas reserves over decades
New Line of Business: Natural Gas Vehicle (NGV) Fuel
Industry’s growing demand for imported gas: • Heavy truck can consume up to 200-300 kg of LNG daily • Shipping company having 20-40 trucks annually consumes several million
cubic meters of gas • European NGV market may require extra 45 bcm of gas by 2030
Gazprom Group companies keep on running NGV projects in Europe. As of December 31, 2013 Gazprom, represented by its affiliated companies Gazprom Germania and Vemex, owned (both solely and jointly) 31 gas filling stations in Germany, Czech Republic and Poland, including 30 CNG filling stations and 1
LNG filling station.