fx weekly commentary - sep 25 - sep 30 2011 elite global trading

8/4/2019 FX Weekly Commentary - Sep 25 - Sep 30 2011 Elite Global Trading

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The Markets around the world look for

stability for future. Risk aversion moves heat

up as everyone looks for the safe haven.

Many thought silver was a place to be a

month ago and after the recent sell off it's

becoming clearer that silver is a riskier asset

then most previously thought. The week

ahead brings many wondering if we continue

to sell off or do we expect a recovery? We

certainly are entering new trends as this new

season begins. As markets turn bearish wecertainly do expect a recovery before another

move lower. In the currency market we have

broken key trend lines that indicate towards

some longer term trends shifting towards the

bears, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD and

EURUSD are all looking to give further losses

in the months to come. We particularly like

the potential downside for the GBPUSD and

AUDUSD at the moment, but before the

continued moves down happen we do expect

a consolidation period or a move for recovery

up in these pairs. The moves up are expected

to be weak with much bearish pressure on

most of these pairs, so play cautious with the

recovery moves. The week ahead is a light

week for economic data, the large events are

at the beginning of October with RBA and ECBrate decisions. We could see a continued sell-

off to start the week and recovery beginning

Tuesday through the rest of the week, so

being patient on the next moves, it may take

some time for this recovery to unfold after the

extensive move we just experienced in most

of the assists being traded.

Fundamental Outlook

Elite Global

Trading Forex Weekly CommentarySep 25th Sep 30th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 21

In this issue:

Fundamental

Outlook

1

AUDUSD

GBPUSD2

EURUSD 3

Event Risk 4Contact Info

Disclaimer5
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2/5

Elite Global

Trading

Sep 25th Sep 30th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 21

AUDUSD: As risk aversion heats up in themarkets the Aussie has lost tremendousground being a high yielding currency. We look

in the weeks ahead for this pair to continue

it's pace to the downside. Ahead of that we do

see room for a correction, a move up towards

parity 1.0000 is expected this week.

Outlook: Bearish Bias, in the week aheadexpect a rebound as risk aversion cools down.

We see a move towards parity to be very

probable, levels to watch for, .9880, .9929,

.9990, 1.0030. This move up will most likelynot be lasting, we do expect more risk

aversion moves in the weeks ahead which will

continue to put pressure to the bearish side of

this pair. Support sits at .9730, .9707, .9669.

We prefer looking into shorting after the rally.

Australian Dollar / United States Dollar

GBPUSD: Has been following a perfect dailybearish trend line down from August 2011

high of 1.6554. Last week we saw a violation

of the all important 50% daily support level

from the low 1.4229 created June 2011 to

the high 1.6554. Since July 2008 the

GBPUSD has been contained between the

50% resistance at 1.7324 and 1.3534. The

GBPUSD bulls have were able to hold the line

at 1.5305 last week after an aggressive

selloff. With the BOE working through an asset

buying program we see continued weakness

in the GBP. The Federal reserves operation

twist and global markets desire for safe-

haven assets direct the flows of capital into

the USD. Combine these two scenarios for a

very nice bearish move for the GBPUSD.

Outlook: Bearish Bias, possible intraday rallies

that will not be sustaining. A move back up

towards 1.5900 is very possible, but likely to

be a weak recovery. We are looking for the

GBPUSD to test the support level of 1.4233

and create a new daily bottom.

UK Pound Sterling / United States Dollar


3/5

Elite Global

Trading


EURUSD: The EURO has traded over 1000pips from it's high three weeks ago at 1.4550.

Greek default inching towards the edge,

markets continued their liquidation of assets

and crushed the European equity markets.

The French stock exchange and the German

stock exchange, lost 7.29 and 6.76 percent

each, fears of contagion showing in all

markets. A rebound is due for this pair and is

expected to happen this week, but the long-

term fundamentals have not shifted nor have

policymakers given a path to ensure financial

stability. So any correction that occurs will

most likely be short lived.

On Thursday, German inflation data will be

released with the rate expected to hold at 2.4

percent on a yearly-basis. Also on Thursday is

a key German vote for the European Financial

Stability Facility. The German parliaments

finance panel backed changes to the Euro

rescue fund, setting up a full lower-house vote

on September 29. While this vote is expected

to pass, this remains the key event for theweek for Europe, because if it does not, the

Euro-zone in its current format will be very

much in jeopardy. With this vote passing we

will most likely see this support the rebound

to higher prices.

Outlook: Bearish Bias, for the very short termthis week a rebound up towards 1.3700-

1.3850 can be very possible. Resistance to

watch for 1.3660, 1.3720, 1.3800, 1.3880.

Play the rebound up with caution, any shifts in

Europe regarding financial stability can causea strong shift to continue to push lower.

Support levels below are 1.3440, 1.3385,

1.3340, 1.3250.

Euro / United States Dollar


4/5

Elite Global

Trading


Monday:EUR: German Ifo Business Climate 4am

USD: New Home Sales

Tuesday:EUR: GfK German Consumer Climate 2am

EUR: M3 Money supply 4am

GBP:CBI Realized Sales 6am

USD: CB Consumer Confidence

Wednesday:EUR: Prelim German CPI

USD: Core Durable Goods 8:30am

Thursday:USD: Unemployment Claims 8:30am

USD: Pending Home Sales 10am

NZD: NBNZ Business Confidence 6:45pm

Friday:EUR: German Retail Sales 2am

EUR: French Consumer Spending 2:45am

EUR: CPI Flash Estimate 5am

CHF: KOF Economic Barometer

USD: Personal Spending 8:30am

USD: Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Weeks Event Risk


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Any reliance you place onsuch information is thereforestrictly at your own risk.

In no event will we be liable for any

loss or damage including without

limitation, indirect or consequential

loss or damage, or any loss or

damage whatsoever arising from

loss of data or profits arising out of,

or in connection with, the use of this

newsletter.

The information contained in this

newsletter is for general information

purposes only. The information is

provided by Elite Global Trading and

while we endeavor to keep the

information up to date and correct,

we make no representations or

warranties of any kind, express or

implied, about the completeness,

accuracy, reliability, suitability or

availability with respect to the

newsletter or the information,

products, services, or related

graphics contained on the

newsletter for any purpose.

News letter Authors:

Anthony [email protected]

James [email protected]

Tel: 786-759-0348

E-mail:

[email protected]

Elite Global Trading

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fx weekly commentary - sep 25 - sep 30 2011 elite global trading

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