future stories #2 - the future of telcos (gerd leonhard)

8/14/2019 Future Stories #2 - The Future of Telcos (Gerd Leonhard)

1/3

Traditionally, telecom companies simply offered various types of phone services andconnectivity, and moved lots of data around - maintaining and constantly improving pipes &networks was the primary mission. Today, the basic connectivity offerings have becomeseriously commoditized: prices are dropping towards zero in a feels like free way, and due tothe ever-increasing P2P action the comfortable old position of being a dump pipe is no longera viable option, no matter which way you look at it. The bottom line is that there is no way thatContent and Services will not end up packaged into those expensive pipes, cables andwireless networks. But take note of those keywords: PACKAGED and BUNDLED and FeelsLike Free.

Increasingly, the future of Telecoms is more in the COM than the TELE; in facilitatingcommunications based on, around and lubricated with Content and Services. Voice traffic willonly be a small and probably diminishing slice of the pie here - similar to how CDs and digital

music unit sales will make up only a fraction ofthe future revenues of record labels.

In a networked ecosystem that wants to serveand empower those pesky always-on digitalnatives, telcos and operators have no choice butto branch out into adjacent or even completelyalien sectors - if they dont, other players such asdevice & handset manufacturers, web portals,social networks and search engines will feelcompelled to fill the gaps and push the pipe &

network guys further and further down to thebottom of a digital ecosystem that has only justnow begun to flourish (remember: only about 2%of the world is on broadband, today - there is along way to go, yet). Imagine a Facebook MobileNetwork, a Samsung Mobile Video Platform, and

(of course) a Google eBook Reader?

Clearly, those Web0.0 dumb pipes & walled garden concepts are dead and gone - now it isall about what comes through those pipes, not where they come from. And crucially, contentmust now be defined much broader: not just as a piece of professionally made and bona-fide

copyrightable work that is being transmitted but also inclusive of all the surrounding userinteractions, attention kernels and clickstreams. Context becomes very valuable Content, too.

By Gerd Leonhardwww.mediafuturist.com

FUTURE STORIES #2

May21,

2008
http://www.mediafuturist.com/2008/04/broadband20-via.htmlhttp://www.usator.com/http://www.musiclikewater.com/http://www.feelslikefree.com/http://www.feelslikefree.com/http://www.mediafuturist.com/2008/04/broadband20-via.htmlhttp://www.mediafuturist.com/2008/04/broadband20-via.htmlhttp://www.mediafuturist.com/2008/04/broadband20-via.htmlhttp://www.mediafuturist.com/http://www.mediafuturist.com/http://www.mediafuturist.com/2008/04/broadband20-via.htmlhttp://www.mediafuturist.com/2008/04/broadband20-via.htmlhttp://www.mediafuturist.com/2008/04/broadband20-via.htmlhttp://www.mediafuturist.com/2008/04/broadband20-via.htmlhttp://www.usator.com/http://www.usator.com/http://www.usator.com/http://www.usator.com/http://www.musiclikewater.com/http://www.musiclikewater.com/http://www.mediafuturist.com/2008/02/welcome-to-paul.htmlhttp://www.mediafuturist.com/2008/02/welcome-to-paul.htmlhttp://www.feelslikefree.com/http://www.feelslikefree.com/


2/3


3/3

Skype will be sold by eBay toeither a major social network(F.k?) or a major telecom,and will come back full circleto how it got started: a

powerful network for sharingdata the cheapest possibleway, be it phone calls or otherbits and bytes i.e. content(read: music, film, TV,books...). Skype is wherelegal P2P will happen, first.

Within 12-18 months, togetherwith Google, one of theleading advertising and

communication agencies wilstrike a deal with a major telcoand jointly launch ad-supported and user-generated

content services based on an Advertising2.0 approach, completely side-stepping traditionacontent production and licensing procedures and offering new artists (and out-of-contract acts)yet another way to go direct.

So, dear Telcos, Operators and ISPs, here are my 2 cents:

Stop worrying about pleasing the incumbent music & media industry players and the studios-

either they will follow yourlead and give 5 Billion users what they want, how they want it, or youneed to leave them behind as quickly as possible Play your hand nowfor it is strong: you have the network, you have the users, you have thebilling relationships - you can get the content the way you need it, too! Like the Radio and Broadcasting Industries before you, start by demanding a new,standardized blanket license for full-length, interactive music streaming followed by unlimiteddownloading of music on digital networks; and while this is being negotiated start making dealswith Ad Agencies and Advertisers to prep the Advertising2.0 pipeline. Its music first and then Film, Video, TV. $700 Billion of Advertising per year are ready to betraded in this battle for content in return for attention. Seize the day.

When: 18-24 monthsWhere: everywhereImpact level (from 1-10): 10Opportunity rating(from 1-10): 8

Some sources of Inspiration for this Future Story:IBM Future of Advertising Report Telco2.0 Two-sided business modelTelco2.0 BlogEdelmann Trust Report

Flat-rate music offerings will become a standard - and fuelthe telcos of tomorrow. Smarter toll-booths for more traffic.

FUTURESTORIES

May21,

2008

Source: Flickr: thomashawk

By Gerd Leonhardwww.mediafuturist.com
http://www-03.ibm.com/industries/media/doc/content/resource/business/2898468111.htmlhttp://www.slideshare.net/simontorrance/telco-20-two-sided-telecoms-business-model-introhttp://www.slideshare.net/gleonhard/gerd-leonhard-futurist-at-jakarta-broadband-summit-open-is-king-the-future-of-media/http://www.mediafuturist.com/http://www.mediafuturist.com/http://www.edelman.com/trust/2008/http://www.edelman.com/trust/2008/http://www.stlpartners.com/telco2.phphttp://www.stlpartners.com/telco2.phphttp://www.slideshare.net/simontorrance/telco-20-two-sided-telecoms-business-model-introhttp://www.slideshare.net/simontorrance/telco-20-two-sided-telecoms-business-model-introhttp://www-03.ibm.com/industries/media/doc/content/resource/business/2898468111.htmlhttp://www-03.ibm.com/industries/media/doc/content/resource/business/2898468111.htmlhttp://www.slideshare.net/gleonhard/gerd-leonhard-futurist-at-jakarta-broadband-summit-open-is-king-the-future-of-media/http://www.slideshare.net/gleonhard/gerd-leonhard-futurist-at-jakarta-broadband-summit-open-is-king-the-future-of-media/

future stories #2 - the future of telcos (gerd leonhard)

Documents