Cities need to take steps now to future proof their development to prevent long term harm to social and economic progress.

The Future Proofing Cities report provides a new practical

framework to help guide cities tackle the environmental risks to their long term prosperity and growth.

Atkins in partnership with

FUTURE PROOFING

CITIES

Half of the world’spopulation – 3.5billion people – nowlive in cities and thiswill reach 60% by 2030, and 75% by 2050

Our analysis developed five urban typologies, grouping the 129 cities assessed on the most significant environmental risks they face. These five typologies are shown in the map alongside. This work found that the most significant group of cities are those impacted by multiple environmental risks: high energy use and carbon footprints, risks from climate hazards such as flooding and cyclones, and risks to regional support systems such as water, food, and natural ecosystems. This group spans some of the world’s largest cities such as Bangkok, Jakarta, and Delhi, to smaller cities such as Guwahati and Bareilly in India.

Practical steps for future proofing This report outlines a five-stage future proofing approach to help cities develop practical programmes of investment which meet their multiple objectives and utilise and build on the institutional capacities they have available.

A list of over 100 policy options for future proofing is presented in the Future Proofing Cities report, identifying which policies are likely to be most relevant to different city types. The analysis shows that many of these policies are an extension of sound integrated urban planning and infrastructure investment. This matrix of policy options for future proofing include policies such as mixed-use zoning, use of greenbelts, developing mass transit, pedestrian and bike orientated development plans, and prudent land management. This provides an opportunity for cities to build on existing initiatives and good practice in urban planning and combine these with more specific sector based policies.

The role of infrastructure The evidence shows that future proofing is ultimately about investing in the right kind of soft and hard infrastructure, and there are tangible examples of cities that are already embedding such policies. For example, Bangalore is incorporating a broad range of policies including: rainwater harvesting and grey water reuse; pollution control; putting solar power systems into new buildings and larger scale developments to minimise carbon and energy footprints; and minimising water use and bolstering resilience to climate change.

The Future Proofing Cities report is the result of a collaboration led by Atkins, in partnership with the UK’s Department for International Development and University College London. The report has been supported by wide a range of organisations including the World Bank, Rockefeller Foundation, Cities Alliance, and ICLEI.

The foundation for the work has been an integrated assessment of the risks, vulnerabilities, and capacities of 129 rapidly growing cities across 20 countries spanning Asia and Africa. Much of the urban infrastructure in these cities is yet to be built. With their aggregate population due to grow from 350 million people to over half a billion in the next fifteen years alone, and forecasted GDP to almost treble, there is an important – but closing – window of opportunity for these cities to future proof their development.

Risks to growth and prosperity Cities – particularly in fast growing developing countries – need to act now to future proof themselves to prevent long term harm to their economies and poverty reduction efforts. Cities occupy only two per cent of the Earth’s land, yet account for 60 to 80 per cent of energy consumption and 75 per cent of carbon emissions. Natural hazards such as flooding and drought, temperature extremes, and tropical cyclone activity already impact cities and these will be exacerbated by climate change. Flooding recently cost Bangkok’s economy US$39 billion and five million people there could be at risk of flooding by 2070.

Given that 95 per cent of future urban expansion is projected to take place in the developing world, it is cities in developing countries which will be at the front line of reconciling the need for growth with the need to avoid irreversible and costly environmental damage. Over the next 20 years, the urban populations of South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to double to over 3.5 billion people. Delhi and Mumbai will have over 50 million people between them by 2025. Cities in the developing world are also particularly vulnerable to environmental risks. These risks could ultimately damage their future economic growth potential and impact on their ability to reduce urban poverty.

6.1bn (2050)

3.5bn (2012)

5.6bn (2030)

PEOPLE LIVING IN CITIES

Policy framework: Decision-support tool Based on an integrated diagnostic of their urban type, vulnerabilities, and capacity to act, cities can start to develop a programme for future proofing through a five-stage process. First, identifying the environmental risks the solutions can address (i.e. climate change mitigation, adaptation, resource efficiency). Second, their potential to address vulnerabilities and deliver wider economic development benefits. Third, the capacity required for implementation. Fourth, assessing in further detail their impact and cost effectiveness in delivering environmental, social, and economic benefits. Fifth, bringing these elements together to assemble policy portfolios.

Urban poor Basic service delivery Jobs, capital stock,

growth, competitiveness

Carbon emissions and energy use

Climate change hazard risks

Resource use and ecosystems (water, food,

land use/agriculture, materials, natural habitat)

Affordability (up-front and lifecycle costs)

Strength and legitimacy of governance required Planning capacity

required Deliverability

4. IMPACT & COST EFFECTIVENESS

IDENTIFICATION & APPRAISAL OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS

URBAN DIAGNOSTIC

CAPACITY TO ACT

Economy Governance Planning

Finance and delivery

VULNERABILITY

Level of poverty and inequality Strength of basic

infrastructure and services Urban form

RISK: URBAN TYPE

1. RISKS ADDRESSED

3. CAPACITY REQUIRED TO IMPLEMENT

SOLUTIONS

2. ABILITY TO TARGET VULNERABILITIES AND CATALYSE ECONOMIC

GROWTH

5. ASSEMBLE POLICY PORTFOLIO

Policy complementarity and conflicts Balance of transformational, transition, and resilience measures

Sequencing

Maximising returns on investmentBy thinking in a holistic way, cities can maximise the long term value of their investments. There are numerous opportunities for investing in measures which can respond to multiple environmental risks as well as deliver broader economic and social benefits.

The report identifies how different policies for future proofing might be integrated, the extent to which they deliver wider social and economic benefits, and how challenging they are to implement given their governance, planning, finance, and delivery requirements. The analysis shows there are a significant number of policies which can balance environmental, social, and economic objectives and can

addressing environmental risks. These policies could form part of a core package of policies for all urban types, and can be especially useful for city types facing multiple risks. These can also support cities to address uncertain future risks or secondary risks which might be of less immediate relevance.

The report also shows that there are numerous future proofing policies with significant potential to directly reduce urban poverty and boost short to medium term economic growth. For example, Bus Rapid Transit and improvements to walking and cycling infrastructure provides affordable transport to those on more limited incomes and boosts capital spending, creates jobs, and reduces the cost of transport, and can also support wider health benefits such as tackling obesity. These policies can help all cities – but especially those with high vulnerabilities and weak urban economies – to build momentum behind future proofing programmes of investment.

There are also a range of future proofing policies that are relatively easy to implement. These include policy solutions such as urban agriculture, micro-generation, improvements to public transport information, and introduction of enhanced bus services. These policies are relatively affordable, do not have substantial governance or planning requirements, and are relatively straightforward to deliver.

The range of measures which are relatively easy to implement is good news for capacity constrained cities. However, these constraints should not prevent cities from being ambitious and focusing on more challenging interventions; capacity can be built through the process of policy implementation itself, providing a focus for capacity building efforts.

The report highlights the shared challenges facing cities and how solutions can be implemented that respond to the unique nature of each city. It focuses on how the right soft and hard infrastructure can support cities to become more environmentally, socially, and economically prosperous.

be implemented by most cities. These policies can form the heart of any urban development strategy.

In particular, our analysis of policy options shows that a wide range of policies can respond to multiple environmental risks by: (1) reducing carbon emissions and energy use; (2) responding to climate hazards; and (3) helping protect or manage water and food systems and natural habitats. For example, Bangkok is rehabilitating the mangroves along its coast which will help block further coastal erosion, restore the ecosystem’s ability to absorb carbon, and bolster biodiversity. These can be thought of as ‘triple-win’ or ‘win-win’ policies in

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UNITED KINGDOM

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CZECH REPUBLIC

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MACEDONIA

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MOROCCO

Energy intensive, sprawled cities with significant carbon footprintsCities such as Bangalore can be characterised as sprawled cities with high carbon emissions and high energy intensity. GDP per capita (2010): US$ 9,604 (PPP) Population (2010): 7.22 million Carbon emissions per capita: 1.53 tonnes Population density: 3644 persons per sq.km Percentage of the city catchment urbanised: 15.9%Bangalore has the third highest carbon footprint in India and energy use is rising rapidly. Bangalore’s carbon profile is to a large extent due to electricity consumption relating to buildings, as inefficient older buildings and newly built developments are estimated to contribute 59 per cent of emissions owing to their air-conditioning needs.

Bangalore, India

Cities with a low current risk profileA limited number of cities such as Lilongwe currently have a relatively low risk profile, although this could change over time as factors such as population pressures and climate change intensify. GDP per capita (2010): $2051 (PPP) Population (2010): 865,000 Carbon emissions per capita: 0.09 tonnes Percentage of the city catchment at

drought risk: 0% Percentage of city at risk of flooding: 0%Lilongwe is predicted to double in size to over 1.8 million people by 2025. Although this city is currently at low risk of flooding and drought, climate change projections for Malawi show an intensification of rainfall is likely across the different seasons.

Lilongwe, Malawi

Cities with multiple risks: energy, carbon, climate hazards, and regional support systemsCities such as Bangkok are at risk from major climate hazards, and have relatively high carbon emissions and energy intensity. Some of these cities also face significant risks to their water security, food security, or biodiverse natural habitats. GDP per capita (2010): $25,395 (PPP) Population (2010): 6.98 million Carbon emissions per capita: 4.19 tonnes Percentage of the city extent at flood risk: 62% Percentage of the city catchment at drought risk: 19.9% Percentage of the city catchment urbanised: 10.4% Human Influence Index: 33.0Bangkok has implemented a wide range of policies across various sectors to future proof its development from flood defence measures to mass transit options. The report highlights a range of areas in which Bangkok could pay more attention e.g. urban greening could simultaneously reduce carbon emissions as well as build climate resilience and reduce urban sprawl.

Bangkok, Thailand

Cities with major climate hazardsCities such as Maputo face major climate hazard risks – predominantly from flooding – which are likely to intensify over time. GDP per capita (2010): US$ 2,134 (PPP) Population (2010): 1.65 million Carbon emissions per capita: 0.1 tonnes Percentage of the city extent at flood risk: 100% Percentage of the city catchment urbanised: 1.7% According to the IPCC, the number of natural disasters and temperature levels have been rising in Mozambique over the past three decades and the country is recognised as one of the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change along Africa’s east coast.

Maputo, Mozambique

Cities with regional support system(s) at risk (water, food, biodiversity)Cities such as Karachi face significant risks within their urban catchment affecting either their water security, food security, or risks to biodiverse natural habitats and ecosystems. GDP per capita (2010): US$ 4,975 (PPP) Population (2010): 13.12 million Projected population in 2025: 18.7 million Population living in multi-dimensional poverty: 7.3 million Percentage of the city catchment at drought risk: 100% Percentage of city catchment available for agriculture: 32%In Karachi, 56% of people are currently living in urban poverty, and the city’s population is due to grow by a further 5 million people by 2025. The urban poor spend a high percentage of their income on food and water – intermittency in supply and rising prices have significant impacts on livelihoods. The poor often also rely on natural ecosystems the most (e.g. for fuel and food) and their degradation or collapse can have significant impacts on quality of life and standards of living.

Karachi, Pakistan

The Five Urban Typologies

Type 1 Cities – Energy intensive sprawled cities with high carbon footprints

Type 2 Cities – Cities with major climate hazards

Type 3 Cities – Cities with risks to regional support system(s)

Type 4 Cities – Cities with multiple risks

Type 5 Cities – Cities with low current risk profile

Unknown risk type – Cities with unknown climate risks due to data availability

Base map: The base map provides a map of flood risk.

Source: Adapted from CIESEN.

High flood risk Low flood risk

Population in 202530M

1M

Five urban typologiesThis map highlights the five urban typologies developed in the Future Proofing Cities report, spanning cities of different sizes and geographies. These typologies highlight the dominant and most significant risks facing these cities.

Grouping cities into urban types can be a useful way to pinpoint common areas for action, innovation or investment. Although cities may share similar environmental risks, the solutions need to be bespoke to the unique culture and needs of each city. ©

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The Atkins logo, ‘Carbon Critical Design’ and the strapline ‘Plan Design Enable’ are trademarks of Atkins Ltd.© Atkins Ltd except where stated otherwise.

www.atkinsglobal.com www.futureproofingcities.com

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5 millionNumber of people in Bangkok that could be at risk of flooding by 2070.

$418 millionCost per year of replacing the ecosystem services (e.g. water provision, flood prevention) provided by Durban’s network of green open space, 38 per cent of the city’s total budget.

17%Estimated area of Mombasa that could be lost from a 0.3 m sea level rise causing the loss of hotels, cultural monuments, and beaches that draw tourists.

PERFECT STORM OF RISKS

FACING CITIES

$39 billionEconomic loss from recent flooding in Bangkok through damage of more than a million buildings and impacts on commerce and industry.

$39 billionEconomic loss from recent flooding in Bangkok through damage of more than a million buildings and impacts on commerce and industry.

44 millionNumber of people pushed into poverty by increases in food prices in the second half of 2010, many located in urban areas.

44 millionNumber of people pushed into poverty by increases in food prices in the second half of 2010, many located in urban areas.

20%Percentage of repairs due to climate change to the Konkan railway network in western India that facilitates trade and energy services between Mumbai and Bangalore.

1.9 millionNumber of people affected by recent flooding in Manila.

85%Percentage of Dhaka submerged by recent flooding.

85%Percentage of Dhaka submerged by recent flooding.

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20%Percentage of repairs due to climate change to the Konkan railway network in western India that facilitates trade and energy services between Mumbai and Bangalore.