future of an ageing population - gov uk...2016/08/22 · foresight trends table 1.3: total...

Foresight Trends

Future of an Ageing Population

George Leeson Nana Nanitashvili amp Maja Zaloznik

The Oxford Institute of Population Ageing

August 2016

This review has been commissioned as part of the UK governmentrsquos Foresight Future of anAgeing Population project The views expressed do not represent policy of any government or

organisation

Foresight Trends

Contents

1 Population Ageing ndash age-structural change 4

Population Structure 4

Fertility Rates 6

Mortality Rates 9

Projected Population Structure 10

2 How life expectancy is changing 11

Life Expectancy at Birth 11

Life Expectancy at 65 and 80 12

Survivorship at Young and Old Ages 13

Projected Life Expectancy at Birth 14

Projected Life Expectancy at 65 and 80 15

Projected Cohort Life Expectancies 16

3 How healthy life expectancy is changing 17

Healthy and Disability-free Life Expectancies 17

4 Dependency ratios and population over 65 19

Median Age 19

Proportion of people at older ages 20

Projected Working and Pension Age Populations 21

Old Age Dependency Ratio 22

5 Education training and work 23

Sectoral employment by age group 23

1

Foresight Trends

Age Distribution of Full-time and Part-time Workers 25

Labour Participation Rates by Age Group 27

International Comparison of Employment Rates 28

International Comparison of Changes in Employment Rates 30

Projected Economic Activity for the UK 32

Projected Employment Status and Gender Composition by Sector 33

6 Housing and the built environment 35

Housing Profile of over 65s 35

Houses Failing the Decent Homes Criteria in England 37

Working from Home by Age Group 39

7 Technology 40

Computer Use by Age Group 40

Internet Access by Age and Socio-economic Group 41

Internet Activities by Age Group 42

Internet Purchasing by Age Group 43

Smartphone Ownership by Age Group 44

Internet Skills by Lifestage 45

8 Inequalities 46

Relative and Absolute Poverty for Pensioners 46

Pensionersrsquo Income Distribution 48

Life Expectancy at age 65 by Area Deprivation Levels 49

Regional Differences in Mortality Rates by NS-SEC 51

Life Expectancy Trends by Social Class 52

Limiting Long-term Illness by Age Group and NS-SEC 53

Health Inequalities and Ethnicity 54

2

Foresight Trends

Health by Ethnicity and Age Group 56

Income Inequality by Ethnic Group for over 60s 59

9 Social and cultural change 61

Volunteering 61

Changes in Travel Rates for over 60s 62

Loneliness 63

3

Foresight Trends

1 Population Ageing ndash age-structural change

Population Structure

201520151950195019251925 95

9085807570656055504540353025201510

50

Males Females

Percentage of the population

Age

2 2 4 4 6 6 8 8 0 0 10 10

Figure 11 The population distribution of the United Kingdom by age group for 19251950 and 2015 Source ONS (2013d) and Human Mortality Database (2015)

In the United Kingdom the 20th century saw a dramatic transformation of thepopulation pyramid as the changes in fertility early life and then later life mortalitypassed into and through the age profile of the population This is of course a continualprocess and so the population structure of the future will reflect the increasing longevitypredicted for males and females as well as ndash at most ndash modest increases in fertility Theage structures 1925 1950 and 2015 are shown in Figure 11 (and the data in Table 11It is clear for both males and females that the typical age pyramid of 1925 (albeit withthe base beginning to narrow) had changed dramatically to a distribution where theproportions in younger age groups have declined while those in mid- and later-life agegroups have increased For example in 1925 the proportions of the population in theUnited Kingdom aged under 15 years were 28 per cent for males and 25 per cent forfemales By 2015 these had declined to 18 and 17 per cent respectively On the otherhand the proportions aged over 65 years have in the same period increased from 6 and7 per cent to 16 and 19 per cent It is not possible to understand these trends withoutreference to fertility and mortality change

4

Foresight Trends

Table 11 The population distribution of the United Kingdom by age group for 19251950 and 2015 ndash percent of population in each age group (see Figure 11) Source ONS(2013d) and Human Mortality Database (2015)

Males Females

1925 1950 2015 1925 1950 2015

0 ndash 4 1000 920 650 890 810 600

5 ndash 9 850 750 620 760 670 580

10 ndash 14 960 710 560 880 630 520

15 ndash 19 960 620 610 890 630 560

20 ndash 24 880 690 690 860 670 640

25 ndash 29 740 810 700 810 760 670

30 ndash 34 690 700 680 760 670 670

35 ndash 39 660 800 630 710 760 620

40 ndash 44 660 790 660 690 750 660

45 ndash 49 620 720 710 630 700 710

50 ndash 54 570 590 700 560 640 700

55 ndash 59 450 510 600 450 580 600

60 ndash 64 360 450 530 370 520 540

65 ndash 69 260 370 550 280 450 560

70 ndash 74 170 280 400 210 350 430

75 ndash 79 090 180 300 120 230 360

80 ndash 84 040 080 210 060 130 280

85 ndash 89 010 020 110 020 050 190

90 ndash 94 002 004 040 005 010 090

over 95 000 000 009 001 002 030

5

Foresight Trends

Fertility Rates

2012

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1960

Tota

lF

erti

lity

Rate

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

Year

Figure 12 Total fertility rates in the United Kingdom 1960ndash2012 Source ONS(2014c)

Fertility in the United Kingdom fell towards replacement level in the continued fer-tility decline of the demographic transition (for example Kirk (1996)) and then to belowreplacement in the second demographic transition (Van de Kaa 1987) leaving the UnitedKingdom still in a low fertility cycle after almost 40 years of below replacement fertilitySince 1973 total fertility has been below replacement level and although some arguethat recent evidence would suggest increasing total fertility arguing that fertility in theUnited Kingdom is now at a level (approximately 19) not experienced since 1974 ithas to be noted that the previous increase from 1977 until 1980 was followed by a moreprolonged decline until 2001

Table 12 Total fertility rates in the United Kingdom 1960ndash2012 (see Figure 12)Source ONS (2014c)

Year 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

TFR 271 288 244 181 190 179 183 171 164 178 193 192

The total fertility rate (TFR) is a synthetic measure of fertility levels in a given popu-lation Its level can be interpreted as the number of children a woman would have in herreproductive period if she experienced the current age-specific fertility rates Because age-specific fertility changes over time the TFR generally does not represent the experienceof any actual women and care should be taken to avoid that interpretation

6

Foresight Trends

2013

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1960

10

15

20

25

30

35

Tota

lF

erti

lity

Rate

Dual-Earner or Social DemocraticLiberal or Market OrientedGeneral Family Support or ConservativeTransition Post-SocialistFamilialistic or Mediterranean

Year

Figure 13 Total fertility rates in EU countries (1960ndash2013) grouped by welfareregimepolicy configuration type (see text for explanation) Source INED (2016) for1960ndash2010 and Eurostat (2016) for 2011ndash2013

The different policy configuration types plotted in Figure 13 are defined as follows (Olahet al 2014))

bull Dual-Earner policy configuration type or Social Democratic welfare regime withextensive policy provision facilitating work-life balance for both women and menDenmark Finland IcelandNorway and Sweden

bull Liberal or Market-Oriented regime with limited and usually means-tested statesupport to families and the dominance of market-based solutions regarding welfareprovision United Kingdom Ireland and Switzerland

bull General Family Support policy configuration type or Conservative welfare regimein which menrsquos primacy at the labour market has not really been questioned whilethe range of state support to families and to women to combine paid work andfamily responsibilities varies greatly across countries Austria Belgium FranceGermany (FRG only until 1990) Luxembourg and the Netherlands

bull Familialistic or Mediterranean welfare regime with nearly none or extremely lim-ited policy provision to families and pronounced gender role differentiation GreeceItaly Portugal and Spain

bull Transition Post-Socialist cluster which is also rather heterogeneous in terms ofstate support to families and to women to combine labour market participationand family life Bulgaria Czech Republic Estonia GDR (until 1989) HungaryLatvia Lithuania Poland Romania Slovakia and Slovenia

7

Foresight Trends

Table 13 Total fertility rates in EU countries (1960ndash2013) grouped by welfareregimepolicy configuration type (see text for explanation) (see Figure 13) SourceINED (2016) for 1960-2010 and Eurostat (2016) for 2011ndash2013

Dual-Earners

FamilialisticGeneralFamily

SupportLiberal

TransitionPost-

Socialist

Year UnitedKingdom

DenmarkFinlandIcelandNorwaySweden

GreeceItaly

PortugalSpain

AustriaBelgiumFrance

Germany(FRG onlyuntil 1990)

Luxem-bourgNether-lands

UnitedKingdomIreland

Switzerland

BulgariaCzech

RepublicEstonia

GDR (until1989)

HungaryLatvia

LithuaniaPoland

RomaniaSlovakiaSlovenia

1960 271 293 264 264 298 235

1965 288 283 275 268 317 221

1970 244 221 268 227 279 223

1975 181 200 252 170 228 221

1980 190 181 208 166 223 209

1985 179 169 161 151 193 204

1990 183 197 142 159 185 190

1995 171 186 127 152 168 139

2000 164 180 133 163 168 129

2005 178 186 135 163 170 130

2010 193 197 141 169 186 143

2013 192 180 129 163 177 145

8

Foresight Trends

Mortality Rates

2012

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

195319

5519

60

Crude death rateInfant mortality rate

Year

Mort

ali

tyra

te

0

10

20

30

15

25

5

Figure 14 Crude death rate (per 1000 population) and infant mortality rate (deathsunder 1 year per 1000 live births) in the United Kingdom 1953ndash2012 Source ONS2014a

By 2012 the total number of deaths in the UK population (known as the CrudeDeath Rate (CDR)) was just over 569000 corresponding to a CDR of 89 per 1000population ndash still one of the lowest recorded for the United Kingdom (ONS 2014c) TheCDR in the United Kingdom has declined modestly in the period 1953 to 1993 whenit hovered above 11 after which it declined more strongly to 89 in 2013 On the otherhand the infant mortality rate(IMR) has declined more dramatically over the 60 yearperiod from just over 27 to just over 4 By contrast at the turn of the 20th centuryIMR in the United Kingdom had been as high as 150 deaths under 1 year per 1000 livebirths (ibid) which corresponded to the infant mortality rate in India in the late 1950s(United Nations 2013) Indeed declines in mortality among the extreme aged have beenstriking with the age-specific mortality rate for females in their early 80s for examplein the United Kingdom declining from about 120 per 1000 population in the 1950s to 75by the 1990s Improvements have also occurred in that second half of the 20th centuryfor males with rates for males in their early 80s falling from around 160 to 120 Thishas of course impacted on life expectancies in later life as illustrated in section 2

Table 14 Crude death rate (per 1000 population) and infant mortality rate (deathsunder 1 year per 1000 live births) in the United Kingdom 1953ndash2012 (see Figure 14)Source ONS 2014a

Year 1953 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

CDR 1140 1170 1150 1160 1180 1180 1170 1190 1120 1110 1040 970 900 890

IMR 2760 2580 2250 1960 1850 1600 1210 940 790 620 560 510 430 410

9

Foresight Trends

Projected Population Structure

2015

2040

00 ndash 14

15 ndash 29

30 ndash 44

45 ndash 59

0360 ndash 74

075 amp over

5 5 15 15 20 20 25 25 0 0 10 10

Males FemalesAge group


Figure 15 Current and projected population distribution (principle variant) of theUnited Kingdom by age group 2015 and 2040 Source ONS (2013d) and HumanMortality Database (2015)

It is clear for both males and females that the age pyramid for the United Kingdomcontinues to change dramatically moving forward to 2050 with the proportions in youngerage groups continuing to decline and those in later-life age groups in particular increasingIn 2015 the proportions of the population aged 15-64 years were 65 per cent (males)and 64 per cent (females) By 2050 these are projected to decline to 60 and 57 per centrespectively On the other hand the proportions aged over 65 years will in the sameperiod increase from 16 and 19 per cent to 23 and 27 per cent

Table 15 Current and projected population distribution (principle variant) of theUnited Kingdom by age group 2015 and 2040 ndash percent of population in each age group(see for Figure 15) Source ONS (2013d) and Human Mortality Database (2015)

Age groupMales Females

2015 2040 2015 2040

0 ndash 14 1700 1600 1830 1690

15 ndash 29 1870 1750 2000 1860

30 ndash 44 1950 1720 1970 1850

45 ndash 59 2010 1780 2010 1810

60 ndash 74 1530 1630 1480 1540

75 amp over 950 1520 669 1250

10

Foresight Trends

2 How life expectancy is changing

Life Expectancy at Birth

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

Females

Males

Difference

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960

Figure 21 Life expectancy at birth for males and females in the United Kingdom1950ndash2010 and life expectancy gender difference ndash in years Source Human MortalityDatabase (2015)

Figure 21 shows how life expectancy at birth in the UK has been changing overtime Life expectancy been steadily increasing with men gaining 238 months per yearover the past 60 years and women slightly less at 214 months per year The genderdifference was largest during the late 60s when it stood at over 6 years but has beennarrowing since then and is currently under 4 years

Table 21 Life expectancy at birth for males and females in the United Kingdom1950ndash2010 and life expectancy gender difference ndash in years (See Figure 21) SourceHuman Mortality Database (2015)

Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Males 6670 6770 6800 6850 6900 6980 7110 7210 7340 7450 7590 7740 7860

Females 7180 7330 7390 7470 7520 7590 7700 7780 7880 7950 8060 8170 8250

Diff 510 560 590 620 620 610 590 570 540 500 470 430 390

11

Foresight Trends

Life Expectancy at 65 and 80

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960

e65 males

e65 females

e80 males

e80 females

0

10

20

5

15

25

Figure 22 Remaining life expectancy at ages 65 and 80 for males and females in theUnited Kingdom 1950ndash2010 Source Human Mortality Database (2015)

Figure 22 charts the UK trends in remaining life expectancy at ages 65 and 80 ndashthat is the average number of years of life a person is expected to live at age 65 or 80respectively For both age groups womenrsquos life expectancy has increased slightly fasterover the period 1950ndash2010 with 65-year-old women gaining 632 years as opposed to 608for men and 80-year-old women gaining 35 years compared to the 305 years gainedby men over the past 60 years The gender differential has however been decreasingfrom the late 1970s (for 65-year-olds) and the early 1990s (for 80-year-olds) in a similarfashion as life expectancy at birth shown above (Figure 21)

Table 22 Remaining life expectancy at ages 65 and 80 for males and females inthe United Kingdom 1950ndash2010 (see Figure 22) Source Human Mortality Database(2015)

Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

e65 males 1190 1181 1211 1212 1210 1238 1283 1318 1400 1454 1565 1681 1798

e65 females 1427 1474 1530 1576 1597 1638 1683 1710 1785 1810 1888 1962 2059

e80 males 501 501 537 547 557 552 568 576 625 638 688 739 806

e80 females 599 613 650 684 698 710 744 759 818 825 860 892 949

12

Foresight Trends

Survivorship at Young and Old Ages

I(015)

I(6075)

Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

surv

ivin

g

Year

00

02

04

06

08

10

1922

-24

1925

-29

1930

-34

1935

-39

1940

-44

1945

-49

1950

-54

1955

-59

1960

-64

1965

-69

1970

-74

1975

-79

1980

-84

1985

-89

1990

-94

1995

-99

2000

-04

2005

-09

2010

-11

Figure 23 Survivorship ndash proportion of population surviving from birth to age 15and from age 60 to age 75 years United Kingdom 1922ndash2011 both sexes combinedSource own calculations from the Human Mortality Database (Leeson 2014)

Figure 23 shows survivorship from birth to age 15 and from 60 to 75 years in theUK for both sexes combined Up until around 1950 the gradient of the two curves issimilar but from 1950 to the present day survivorship from birth to age 15 has stagnated(simply because survivorship cannot be more than 100 ) while survivorship from age60 to age 75 years continues to improve Currently 81 per cent of 60-year-olds surviveto age 75 years ndash and 92 per cent of a birth cohort survives to age 60 years

Table 23 Survivorship ndash proportion of population surviving from birth to age 15 andfrom age 60 to age 75 years United Kingdom 1922ndash2011 both sexes combined (seeFigure 23) Source own calculations from the Human Mortality Database (Leeson2014)

Years I(015) I(6075) Years I(015) I(6075)

1922-24 087 049 1970-74 098 061

1925-29 087 050 1975-79 098 064

1930-34 089 052 1980-84 098 065

1935-39 091 053 1985-89 099 067

1940-44 091 055 1990-94 099 069

1045-49 094 058 1995-99 099 072

1950-54 096 058 2000-04 099 076

1955-59 097 059 2005-09 099 079

1960-64 097 059 2010-11 099 081

1965-69 097 060

13

Foresight Trends

Projected Life Expectancy at Birth

2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045

Females

Males

Difference

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100

Figure 24 Projected life expectancy at birth for males and females in the UnitedKingdom 2012-2050 and life expectancy gender difference (years) Source ONS (2013c)

The increasing trends in life expectancy are projected to continue to the middle ofthe 21st century (and beyond) with life expectancies at birth reaching 86 years for malesand 89 years for females and with the gender difference declining further to around 3years

Table 24 Projected life expectancy at birth for males and females in the UnitedKingdom 2012-2050 and life expectancy gender difference ndash in years (see for Figure24) Source ONS (2013c)

Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Males 7900 7980 8110 8220 8310 8380 8450 8510 8570

Females 8270 8360 8460 8560 8640 8710 8770 8830 8890

Diff 370 380 350 340 330 330 320 320 320

14

Foresight Trends

Projected Life Expectancy at 65 and 80

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045

e65 malese65 females


0

10

20

5

15

25

30

Figure 25 Projected life expectancy at ages 65 and 80 for males and females in theUnited Kingdom 2012ndash2050 (years) Source ONS (2013c)

By 2050 life expectancy at age 65 is expected to reach 24 years for males and 26years for females while at age 80 life expectancies will have reached 12 and 14 yearsfor males and females respectively By 2050 life expectancies at age 80 will be at levelsobserved at age 65 years in the early 1980s while life expectancies at age 65 in 2050 willcorrespond to those observed at age 50-55 years in early 1980s

Table 25 Projected life expectancy at ages 65 and 80 for males and females in theUnited Kingdom 2012ndash2050 ndash in years (see Figure 25) Source ONS (2013c)

Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

e65 males 1830 1910 2010 2090 2160 2210 2260 2310 2370

e65 females 2070 2160 2250 2330 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600

e80 males 820 880 960 1020 1070 1110 1150 1190 1230

e80 females 950 1020 1100 1160 1220 1260 1300 1340 1380

15

Foresight Trends

Projected Cohort Life Expectancies

replacemen

2012 2050

Att

ain

edage

0

20

40

60

65

75

80

85

Life expectancy (years)Life expectancy (years)

Males Females

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Figure 26 Projected cohort life expectancies in 2012 and 2050 for selected cohortsprincipal projection 2012-based A cohortrsquos life expectancy is the sum of their attainedage (double cross-hatch) and their remaining life expectancy (single cross-hatch) SourceONS (2013c)

As opposed to the period life expectancies described in the previous two charts thecohort life expectancies shown in Figure 26 are about 10 years higher at birth for bothmales and females This is because cohort measures take into account predicted futureimprovements in mortality rates A baby born in 2012 is therefore expected to live untilthe age of 906 if he is a boy or 9390 if she is a girl Babies born in 2050 can expect tolive almost 6 years longer

Table 26 Projected cohort life expectancies in 2012 and 2050 for selected cohortsprincipal projection 2012-based (see Figure 26) Source ONS (2013c)

e0 e20 e40 e60 e65 e75 e80 e85

Males2012 9060 6830 4630 2580 2120 1290 930 630

2050 9620 7370 5150 3040 2560 1680 1300 970

Females2012 9390 7170 4960 2870 2390 1500 1090 740

2050 9910 7680 5450 3310 2810 1880 1460 1100

Period life expectancies discussed above are synthetic measures ndash they represent the av-erage number of years a person would have left to live if they experienced the currentage-specific mortality rates But age-specific mortality rates change over time and thisis what cohort life expectancies take into account and are therefore more representativeof peoplersquos actual experience

16

Foresight Trends

3 How healthy life expectancy is changing

Healthy and Disability-free Life Expectancies

2000

-02

2001

-03

2002

-04

2003

-05

2004

-06

2005

-07

2006

-08

2007

-09

2008

-10

2009

-11

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Years

LE malesHLE malesDFLE males

LE femalesHLE femalesDFLE females

0

40

20

60

80

Figure 31 Life expectancy (LE) healthy life expectancy (HLE) and disability-freelife expectancy (DFLE) at birth in the United Kingdom in years 2000ndash02 to 2009ndash11males and females Source ONS (2012)

As life expectancy (LE) increases as discussed above healthy expectancies enable usto determine whether these lsquoextrarsquo years lived are spent in good health or free from alimiting illness or disability The development in life expectancy healthy life expectancy(HLE) and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) at birth for the United Kingdom forthe period 2000-02 to 2009-11 is shown in Figure 31 which reveals over this period thathealthy life expectancy at birth increased in absolute terms more than life expectancyfor males and females which would suggest a compression of morbidity While this isalso observed for disability-free life expectancy at birth for males it is not the case forfemales

Gender differences in life expectancy are generally greater than the gender differencesin both healthy life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy which would suggestthat most of the increase in life expectancy for females is with disability or in not goodhealth

17

Foresight Trends

Table 31 Life expectancy (LE) healthy life expectancy (HLE) and disability-free lifeexpectancy (DFLE) at birth in the United Kingdom in years 2000ndash02 to 2009ndash11 malesand females (see Figure 31) Source ONS (2012)

LE HLE DFLE

Males

2000-02 757 607 603

2001-03 759 606 609

2002-04 762 610 615

2003-05 766 615 623

2004-06 770 620 624

2005-07 773 614 625

2006-08 775 625 634

2007-09 779 630 634

2008-10 782 635 639

2009-11 784 642 639

Females

2000-02 804 624 628

2001-03 805 622 630

2002-04 807 625 633

2003-05 809 629 639

2004-06 813 637 639

2005-07 815 629 637

2006-08 817 642 643

2007-09 820 650 651

2008-10 823 657 650

2009-11 824 661 647

Estimates are based on a three year moving average

18

Foresight Trends

4 Dependency ratios and population over 65

Median Age

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

Med

ian

age

(yea

rs)

Year

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

Figure 41 Median age (in years) in the UK 1974 to 2014 Source ONS (2015a)

The population of the UK is ageing Ageing of the population refers to both theincrease in the average (median) age of the population and the increase in the numberand proportion of older people in the population The median age of the UK population(that is the age at which half the population is younger and half the population is older)at mid-2014 was at its highest ever at 400 This is a slight increase from last yearcaused by the growth in population at older ages Over the 40 year period 1974 to 2014the median age of the UK population has increased from 339 years to 400 years anincrease of over 6 years

Table 41 Median age (in years) in the UK 1974 to 2014 (see Figure 41) SourceONS (2015a)

Year 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Median Age 339 341 348 355 358 363 371 381 389 395 400

19

Foresight Trends

Proportion of people at older ages

Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

Year

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

10

12

4

6

8

0

2

65 ndash 74

75 ndash 84

85 and over

Figure 42 Proportion of people in three older age groups UK population mid-1974to 2014 Source ONS (2015a)

In terms of increases in the number and proportion of older people in the UK popu-lation the population aged 65 and over has grown by 47 since mid-1974 to make upnearly 18 of the total population in mid-2014 while the number of people aged 75 andover has increased by 89 over the period and now makes up 8 of the population(Figure 42)

Table 42 Proportion of people in three older age groups UK population mid-1974 to2014 (see Figure 42) Source ONS (2015a)

Age-group as percentage of total population

Year 65 ndash 74 75 ndash 84 85 and over Median Age

1974 890 400 090 3390

1975 900 410 090 3380

1980 930 460 100 3430

1985 880 520 120 3540

1990 880 540 150 3580

1995 890 530 170 3650

2000 840 550 190 3760

2005 830 560 190 3870

2010 860 550 220 3950

2014 960 570 230 4000

20

Foresight Trends

Projected Working and Pension Age Populations

2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

204020

41

Working agePension age

Year

50

40

30

20

10

0

Popula

tion

(in

mil

lion

s)

Figure 43 Projections of working age and pensionable age population1 United King-dom 2012ndash2041 Source ONS (2013c)

The great majority of the predicted increase of the UK population over the comingdecades is split almost equally between the working age and pension age age groups Inrelative terms however this translates to a lowering of the old age dependency ratio (orsupport ratio) which is the number of people of working age per person of pension ageDue to changes in the state pension age (SPA) the ratio will increase slightly for a fewmore years and reach a maximum of 347 in 2020 before starting to fall and is currentlypredicted to be 265 in 2041 unless further changes to the SPA are forthcoming

Table 43 Projections of working age and pensionable age population (in thousands)United Kingdom 2012ndash2041 (see Figure 43) Source ONS (2013c)

Year Working age Pension age Old-age DependencyRatio

2012 39441 12280 321

2015 40282 12470 323

2020 42145 12146 347

2025 42760 13332 321

2030 43028 14932 288

2035 43751 15913 275

2041 44563 16837 265

1Working age and pensionable age populations based on state pension age (SPA) for given yearBetween 2012 and 2018 SPA will change from 65 years for men and 61 years for women to 65 years forboth sexes Then between 2019 and 2020 SPA will change from 65 years to 66 years and between 2034and 2046 the SPA will increase in two stages from 66 years to 68 years for both sexes The populationsizes used are the ONS principal variant projections

21

Foresight Trends

Old Age Dependency Ratio

2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037

United KingdomEngland

Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

Figure 44 Projected old-age dependency ratios United Kingdom 2012ndash2037 SourceONS (2014b)

The projected changes in the old age-dependency ratio for the UK and its constituentcountries are shown in Figure 44 where the effects of the Pensions Act are clearly seenas the curves increase before inevitably falling againBy 2037 the ration is projected tobe 277 for England 271 for Northern Ireland 261 for Scotland and 244 for Wales

Table 44 Projected old-age dependency ratios United Kingdom 2012ndash2037 (see Fig-ure 44) Source ONS (2014b)

UnitedKingdom

England Wales Scotland NorthernIreland

2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends

5 Education training and work

Sectoral employment by age group

18 ndash 24 25 ndash 49 50 ndash 64 65 ndash 69

FinanceFinance

ConstructionConstruction

ManufacturingManufacturing

Public AdministrationPublic Administration

Heanth amp Social careHeanth amp Social care

HospitalityHospitality

RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport

Other sectorsOther sectors

0 20 40 60 80 100

Proportion of workers

Figure 51 Proportion of workers (empoyed and self-employed) by age group andsector 2012 Labour Force Survey (LFS) representative sample of UK private householdsSource Department of Work and Pensions (2013)

Figure 51 plots the proportion of workers in each age group by occupational sectorThe width of each sectorrsquos bar is furthermore proportional to the number of workers ineach of them The 50ndash64 and 65ndash69 age groups represent 35 of the population andhave a similar representation in the Education and Transport sectors (around 33 )but are particularly under-represented in the Finance and Hospitality sectors (under 19)

23

Foresight Trends

Table 51 Proportion of workers (employed and self-employed) by age group andsector 2012 LFS representative sample of UK private households distribution by agegroup within each sector ndash row percentages (see Figure 51) Source Department ofWork and Pensions (2013)

Age group

18 ndash 24 25 ndash 49 50 ndash 64 65 ndash 69 18 ndash 69

Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000

Public Administration 299 6713 2850 138 10000

Healthamp Social care 801 6031 2992 177 10000

Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000

Table 52 Proportion of workers (employed and self-employed) by age group andsector 2012 LFS representative sample of UK private households distribution by sectorwithin each age group ndash column percentages (see Figure 51) Source Department ofWork and Pensions (2013)

Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979


Health amp Social care 933 1328 1525 1091 1330

Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends

Age Distribution of Full-time and Part-time Workers

70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Figure 52 Proportion of male employees aged between 40 and 70 in full-time or part-time work in the UK (bar widths proportional to number of employees) 4th quarteraverage 2011 Source Department of Work and Pensions (2013)

70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Figure 53 Proportion of female employees aged between 40 and 70 in full-time orpart-time work in the UK(bar widths proportional to number of employees) 4th quarteraverage 2011 Source Department of Work and Pensions (2013)

Compared to Figure 52 it is clear from Figure 53 that women are significantly morelikely to engage in part-time work throughout the life-course After the age of about60 (and 65 for men) the proportion working part-time increases dramatically for bothgenders although the numbers of employees at those ages are considerably smaller (asindicated by the width of the bars)

25

Foresight Trends

Table 53 Number (in thousands) and proportion of employees aged between 40 and70 in full-time or part-time work in the UK 4th quarter average 2011 (see Figures 52and 53) Source Department of Work and Pensions (2013)

Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends

Labour Participation Rates by Age Group

0

20

40

60

80

100 16mdash24 25mdash49 50mdashSPA over SPA

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate

Figure 54 Labour market participation rates in the United Kingdom for both gendersand women only in dashed line 1994-2014 based on 4 quarter rolling averages SourceONS (2015d) Note SPA stands for State Pension Age and takes into account theincremental increase in State Pension Age

Labour market participation rates are highest for the 25mdash49 age group and haveremained relatively constant over the past two decades and in 2014 stood at 86 whilefor women in this group they have increased by almost 5 percentage points to 794 Between 1994 and 2014 participation increased most in the 50 to State pension age(SPA) group by over 7 percentage points (almost 11 for women) Labour participationfor people over the pension age is much lower but has also been increasing in the pastdecade particularly standing at 122 (and 113 for women) in 2014

Table 54 Labour market participation rates in the United Kingdom for both gendersand women only 1994-2014 based on 4 quarter rolling averages(see Figure 54) SourceONS (2015d)

Both genders Women only

16ndash24 25ndash49 50ndashSPA over SPA 16ndash24 25ndash49 50ndashSPA over SPA

1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends

International Comparison of Employment Rates

0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate

Difference between rates

Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country

Figure 55 Employment rates by age group for OECD countries (2014 data) and G20countries (2013 data) OECD averages for each group shown with dashed lines UKhighlighted in red Source OECD (2015)

The average employment rates for Organisation for Economic Co-operation and De-velopment (OECD) countries for the three age groups shown in Figure 55 (dashedhorizontal lines) were 67 for those aged 55ndash59) 44 for those aged 60-69 and 20 for those aged 65ndash59 The UK is on or just above average for all three of these measuresand ranks 15th by the rate of employment in the 60ndash64 age bracket

As is clear from the chart there are stark differences between countries with Icelandat one extreme having the highest rates at all age groups with only a three percentagepoint difference between the 55-59 and 60-64 age groups Furthermore Icelanders aged65-69 have five points higher employment rates than British people aged 60-64 At theother extreme we have Slovenians aged 60ndash64 who work less than the OECD average forthe older 65-69 year-old population

Employment rates fall with age in all countries shown but the pace of this decreasevaries substantially - indicated by the shaded bars In the UK this fall is close to theOECD average while countries like Iceland Mexico and Turkey have a relatively slowdecrease and on the other hand Czech Republic Germany France and Denmark haverelatively rapid falls

28

Foresight Trends

Table 55 Employment rates by age group for OECD countries (2014 data) and G20countries (2013 data) (see Figure 55) Source OECD (2015)

Aged 55 ndash 59 Aged 60 ndash 64 Aged 65 ndash 69

Iceland 856 824 533

New Zealand 813 703 396

Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401

Switzerland 823 592 221

Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139

Australia 703 516 254

Canada 693 500 248

United Kingdom 725 481 206

The Netherlands 708 479 147

Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182

Portugal 578 371 186

Spain 540 330 43

Czech Republic 769 322 91

Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102

Luxembourg 581 231 71

Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99

Indonesia 700 620 370

Argentina 683 501 143

China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293

Saudi Arabia 532 338 176

Russia 617 302 na

South Africa 505 275 108

29

Foresight Trends

International Comparison of Changes in Employment Rates

0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country

Figure 56 Percentage point difference in employment rate of older workers (aged55ndash64) from 2004 to 2014 in OECD and G20 countries Source OECD (2015)

Figure 56 tracks the changes in the rates of employment of workers aged 55ndash64(the two age groups shown in black and red on the previous chart) across the sameset of countries In 2014 the OECD average was 56 compared to almost 48 adecade earlier an improvement of over eight percentage points Almost all countrieshave increased the employment rate in this age group except for Portugal and Greecehard hit by the economic crisis with the latter slipping from from an already belowaverage 40 in 2004 to 34 in 2014 second last only to Turkey

Germany experienced the largest increase over the decade from just under 42 to over 65 an unprecedented 23 percentage points Other big increases came fromAustria and Slovakia but both started from the relatively low level of around 27 Iceland started the decade with the highest level of 82 and still managed an increaseof 2 points The United Kingdom gained a modest 46 percentage points going from 56 to almost 61 with both levels above the OECD average

30

Foresight Trends

Table 56 Percentage point difference in employment rate of older workers (aged 55ndash64) 2004ndash2014 in OECD and G20 countries (see Figure 56) Source OECD (2015)

CountryEmployment Employment Difference

rate in 2014 rate in 2004 (percentagepoints)

Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121

United States 6135 5993 142

Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569

Netherlands 5986 4370 1616

Slovak Republic 4475 2679 1797

Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074


Russian Federation 4736 4232 503


India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends

Projected Economic Activity for the UK

2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive

Figure 57 Estimates and projections of economic activity for men aged 65 and overand women aged 60 and over United Kingdom 1990 to 2020 Source Madouros (2006)

As can be seen from Figure 57 the economic activity of men is predicted to stayrelatively stable with only small fluctuations1 Womenrsquos rates have been rising as moreactive cohorts age and furthermore their levels of economic activity in the over 60 agegroup are also predicted to rise due to the rise in state pension eligibility age The tablebelow also shows working aged menrsquos economic activity falling by about five percentagepoints while womenrsquos is predicted to rise by about the same amount in this period

Table 57 Estimates and projections of economic activity (percent employed) for menand women of working age and state pension age United Kingdom 1990 to 2020 (seeFigure 57) Source Madouros (2006)

YearMales Females

16 ndash 64 65 amp over 16 ndash 59 60 amp over

1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368

1This analysis was done before the Pensions Act of 2011 and is therefore based on the SPA beingequalised to 65 by 2020 instead of 66 as it currently stands

32

Foresight Trends

Projected Employment Status and Gender Composition by Sector

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed

Businessand otherservices

Construction Manufacturing Non-marketservices

Primarysector and

utilities

Trade accommand transport

Figure 58 Estimated and projected employment status by sector in UK labour mar-ket Source Data from Wilson et al (2014)

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities


Figure 59 Estimated and projected gender composition by sector in UK labour mar-ket Source Data from Wilson et al (2014)

Current and predicted employment status patterns reflecting structural differencesin labour demand show the largest increases in both full-time and part-time workingin professional and business occupations The manufacturing sector is already shrinkingquite dramatically and is predicted to shrink further mainly on account of full-timepositions Self-employment levels are highest in the Business and other services sector

33

Foresight Trends

and the construction sector and are relatively stable

Differences between male and female occupational structures are most pronouncedin construction manufacturing and primary sector and utilities (in favour of men) andnon-market services (in favour of women) The largest increases are predicted for menin business and other services and for women in non-market services

Table 58 Estimated and projected employment status by sector and gender in UKlabour market (see Figures 58 and 59) Source Data from Wilson et al (2014)

Full-time Part-timeSelf-

Men Womenemployed

Business andother services

2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839

Primary sectorand utilities

2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061

Trade accomodand transport

2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends

6 Housing and the built environment

Housing Profile of over 65s

Own outrightBuying w mortgagePrivate rentersSocial renters

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Figure 61 Profile of tenure of housing occupied by households headed by an individualaged 65 and over () England only 200304 to 201314 Source data from Annex Table14 in DCLG (2015)

Private renters

Local Authority

Housing Association10

0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Figure 62 Proportion of households headed by an individual aged 65 and over inrented tenures 200304 to 201314 England only Source data from Annex Table 14in DCLG (2015)

The great majority of households in the English Housing Survey where the householdreference person is over 65 years old are owner occupiers Their share has been increasingfrom 709 in 2003-04 to 771 in the latest available data from 2013-14 with outright

35

Foresight Trends

ownership now standing at 718 while the proportion still paying off their mortgageshas fallen slightly from 59 to 53

Within households headed by individuals over the age of 65 the share of privaterenters has remained relatively stable over the ten year period increasing slightly from44 to 52 The share of social renters has changed most dramatically falling from247 to 177 This fall was almost entirely due to the fall in local authority housingwhich has nearly halved during this decade while housing association renting remainedat around 10

Table 61 Profile of housing tenure occupied by households headed by an individualaged 65 and over ( in each tenure type) England only (see Figures 61 and 62) Sourcedata from Annex Table 14 in DCLG (2015)

Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends

Houses Failing the Decent Homes Criteria in England

Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort

RepairModern facilitiesand services

10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

Figure 63 Percentage of houses failing the decent homes criteria by reason for failyre-ndash households occupied by an individual over 60 Source Table DA3203 from the EnglishHousing Survey (DCLG 2013)

Decent homes are defined by the Department of Communities and Local Government(DCLG) as homes that meet all the four following criteria i) they meet the statutoryminimum standards for housing ii) are in reasonable state of repair iii) have reasonablymodern facilities and services and iv) provide a reasonable level of thermal comfortFigure 63 plots the 2008-13 trends of houses failing these criteria in households whereat least one person is over the age of 60 The overall levels of homes failing the decenthomes criteria have fallen by over a third from 331 2008 to 199 in 2013 This hasmostly been due to more homes meeting the minimum standards and thermal comfortrequirements The number of homes failing the repair and modern facilities criteria haveremained low and stable over this period

Table 62 Percentage of houses failing the decent homes criteria ndash households occupiedby an individual over 60 (see Figure 63) Source Table DA3203 from the EnglishHousing Survey (DCLG 2013)

Year

Reason for failure 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990

Minimum standard 2130 2040 1720 1450 1320 1120

Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420

Modern facilities amp services 430 380 310 200 210 240

37

Foresight Trends

Age of oldestperson in household

under 6060 or more75 or more

0

5

10

15

20

Non-decent Minimumstandard

Repair Modernfacilities

amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

Figure 64 Percentage of all houses failing the decent homes criteria divided by reasonfor failure and age of the oldest individual in the household Source - Table DA3203 inEnglish Housing Survey (DCLG 2013)

A further breakdown of the households failing the decent homes standards in 2013the most recent available data is shown in Figure 64 breaking down the householdsby age of oldest household member Overall households where the oldest individual isover 60 are most likely to be living in decent homes but that becomes less so if thatindividual is also over 75 The criteria for failing the decent homes criteria that increaseswith age is the modern facilities and services one which has to do with the ldquoage sizeand layoutlocation of the kitchen bathroom and WC and any common areas for blocksof flats and to noise insulationrdquo However this remains the least likely reason to failregardless of the age of the oldest inhabitant with levels ranging from 16 for theyoungest households (with no one over 60) to 34 for the oldest households with atleast one person over 75

Table 63 Percentage of all houses failing the decent homes criteria divided by reasonfor failure and age of the oldest individual in the household (see Figure 64) Source -Table DA3203 in English Housing Survey (DCLG 2013)

Age of oldest person in household

Reason for failing under 60 over 60 over 75

Non-decent 203 199 213

Minimum standard 118 112 115

Repair 43 42 46

Modern facilities amp services 16 24 34

Thermal comfort 68 72 74

38

Foresight Trends

Working from Home by Age Group

0

30

10

40

20

16mdash24 25mdash49 50mdash64 over 65

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people

Figure 65 Proportion of different age groups using their home as a place of workSource ONS (2014a)

In 2014 there were 42 million UK workers working from home compared to 29million in 1998 This represents almost 15 of those working in the UK The age-specific rates show a dramatic increase of working from home for older workers Thelowest rates of 51 are found in the 16ndash24 group At the other extreme end workersaged 383 of workers over the age of 65 use their home as a place of work This can beexplained partly by these workers being more likely to be in responsible roles that requireless supervision as well as being more likely to be self-employed which correlated highlywith working from home

Table 64 Proportion of different age groups using their home as a place of work (seeFigure 65) Source ONS (2014a)

Age group (years)


Percent of workers working from home 51 123 183 383

39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology

Computer Use by Age Group

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people

Figure 71 Proportion of age group using a computer daily in Great Britain 2006 and2015 Source Table 1 in ONS (2015b)

Overall computer use has increased during the previous decade from 45 in 2006to 72 in 2015 As is clear from Figure 71 the greatest increases were achieved by theoldest age groups which also started from the lowest levels In particular the over 65 agegroup had a daily computer use rate of nine percent in 2006 which has increased five-fold to 45 in the most recent internet access estimates calculated from the Opinionsand Lifestyle Survey in Great Britain

Table 71 Proportion of age group using a computer daily in Great Britain 2006 and2015 (see Figure 71) Source Table 1 in ONS (2015b)

Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends

Internet Access by Age and Socio-economic Group

80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE

Age group (years) Socio-economic group

Per

cen

tof

people

Figure 72 Proportion of population with home internet access by age and socio-economic group 2012-15 Source Table 463 in Ofcom (2015b)

85 of UK homes had access to the internet in 2015 a level that is still increasingand is currently lowest in the older age groups with 65ndash74 year olds at 75 and over75s at 40 Access levels are higher in the ABC1 socio-economic groups at 92 andlowest in the DE groups at 70 but increasing across the board1

Table 72 Proportion of population with home internet access by age and socio-economic group 2012-15(see Figure 72) Source - Table 463 in Ofcom (2015b)

Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70

1The classification is defined as follows A B and C1 are professionals senior executives middlemanagement and all other non-manual jobs such as nurses salesmen clerical workers group C2 isspecially qualified and skilled manual workers foremen groups D and E are semi-skilled and unskilledmanual workers and those on the lowest levels of subsistence casual workers and those dependent uponthe state long-term

41

Foresight Trends

Internet Activities by Age Group

replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)

Reading or downloadingonline news newspapers

or magazines

Social networkingeg Facebook or Twitter

Usinge services relatedto travel or

travel accommodation

Internet banking

Selling goods or servicesover the Internet

Looking for health-relatedinformation

Figure 73 Proportion of of people using the internet for selected activities by agegroup in Great Britain 2015 Source Table 7 in ONS (2015b)

The age-specific rates of engagement in a variety of internet activities (within thelast three months) show a similar pattern with the highest levels generally found in the16ndash24 and 25ndash34 age groups Over 65s are most likely to read news related content (32) and use banking and travel related services and look for health related information

Table 73 Proportion of of people using the internet for selected activities 2015 (seeFigure 73) Source Table 7 in ONS (2015b)

Activity

Agegroup(years)

Reading ordownload-ing onlinenews news-papers ormagazines

Social net-working egFacebook orTwitter

Usingservicesrelated totravel oraccommo-dation

Internetbanking

Sellinggoods orservicesover theInternet

Lookingfor healthrelated in-formation

16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends

Internet Purchasing by Age Group

100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)

Figure 74 Proportion of internet users making an online purchase within the past 12months by age group in Great Britain 2008 to 2015 Source Table 10 in ONS (2015b)

The growth of internet shopping over recent years can be seen across all age groupsAgain the oldest age group which started from the lowest level of 16 in 2008 hasseen the largest rise reaching 42 in 2015 The numbers refer to people having madean online purchase within the past 12 months

Table 74 Proportion of internet users making an online purchase within the past 12months by age group 2008 to 2015 (see Figure 74) Source Table 10 in ONS (2015b)

Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends

Smartphone Ownership by Age Group

100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)

Figure 75 Proportion of adults who own a smartphone by age 2010ndash14 ( of UKadults) Source Ofcom (2015a)

Smartphone uptake shows similar trends of increase over the past five years in-creasing across all age groups but with levels topping out at younger age groups butincreasing steadily for the oldest The largest percentage point increase occurred in the35ndash44 age group rising by 50 points to 84 while in the oldest group the rate grewby 15 percentage points which means more than 7 times as many over 65 year-olds nowown a smartphone than in 2010

Table 75 Proportion of adults who own a smartphone by age 2010ndash14 (see Figure75) Source Ofcom (2015a)

Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends

Internet Skills by Lifestage

100

CreativeCreative CriticalCritical SocialSocial TechnicalTechnical

RetiredEmployedStudents

Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0

Figure 76 Proportion condifent in specific internet skills by lifestage in Britain 2013Source Dutton and Blank (2013 p 18)

Figure 76 presents the results of self-assessed internet skills where survey partici-pants were asked how confident they were in performing specific online tasks by them-selves The following tasks were used to describe individual skills

i) creative skills upload photos download music

ii) critical skills judge reliability of online content

iii) social skills participate in discussions make new friends online and

iv) technical skills remove a virus

Students felt most confident in all four domains The largest gap between studentsand retired people was in the creative domain with only 33 of pensioners feelingconfident in their ability to upload or download content compared to 95 of studentsThe smallest gap was found in the critical domain where 72 of older people feltconfident about performing critically online which is also the domain where employedpeople felt most confident

Table 76 Proportion condifent in specific internet skills by lifestage in Britain 2013(see Figure 76) Source Dutton and Blank (2013 p 18)

Internet skill

Life Stage Creative Critical Social Technical

Students 95 89 80 73

Employed 69 82 58 56

Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities

Relative and Absolute Poverty for Pensioners

Absolute low income (AHC60 of 20102011 median)

Relative low income (AHC60 of median for that year)

Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers

Figure 81 Estimated percentage of pensioners in relativeabsolute low income AfterHousing Costs (AHC) United Kingdom Source Shale et al (2015)

Figure 81 shows the trends in pensionersrsquo levels of low income calculated afterhousing costs (AHC) The median AHC income level for 20102011 was pound404 per weekso in that year both relative and absolute income were households with less than pound242per week Median income has fallen slightly over the next four years to pound386 mostrecently hence the relative levels of low income have been below the absolute levelswhich are anchored to the 2010-2011 levels

Both relative and absolute levels of poverty defined using the 60 of median incomethreshold have remained under 20 over the past decade and are currently at 14 and16 respectively At the national level the corresponding values are 21 and 23 meaning pensioners are (and have been) the group with the lowest levels of low incomesAHC

Material deprivation refers to the ldquoself-reported inability of individuals or householdsto afford particular goods and activities that are typical in society at a given pointin time irrespective of whether they would choose to have these items even if theycould afford themrdquo and has been asked in the Family Resources Survey since 200910Importantly there is only a small overlap between the two measures with only 2 ofpensioners being both low income and in material deprivation (Shale et al 2015 p70)

46

Foresight Trends

Table 81 Estimated percentage of pensioners in relativeabsolute low income AfterHousing Costs (AHC) United Kingdom (see Figure 81) Source Shale et al (2015)

Percentage of pensioners

After housing costs

Year Relative lowincome 60

median for thatyear

Absolute lowincome 60

20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends

Pensionersrsquo Income Distribution

BottomBottomBottom SecondSecondSecond MiddleMiddleMiddle FourthFourthFourth TopTopTop

Income QuintilesIncome Quintiles

over 8580mdash8475mdash7970mdash7465mdash69under 65

Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers

Figure 82 Quintile distribution of income (AHC - net equivalised disposable house-hold income) for pensioners by age group United Kingdom 201314 Source DWP(2015)

Pensioners are most under-represented in the bottom quintile of the income distri-bution with only 13 of them in the lowest group although their share increases withage starting at 11 for pensioners under 65 and reaching 17 for those over 85 Youngpensioners aged under 65 and under 69 are most dramatically over-represented in thehighest earning group with 29 and 24 respectively before a sharp fall at older agegroups

Table 82 Quintile distribution of income (AHC - net equivalised disposable householdincome) for pensioners by age group United Kingdom 201314 (see Figure 82) SourceDWP (2015)


Age group (years) Bottom Second Middle Fourth Top

quintile quintile quintile quintile quintile

Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13

All pensioners 13 24 24 21 18

48

Foresight Trends

Life Expectancy at age 65 by Area Deprivation Levels

replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived

SecondquintileSecondquintile

MiddlequintileMiddlequintile

FourthdeprivedFourth

deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)

Area deprivation quintile

Figure 83 Inequality in LE and DFLE for men at age 65 by area deprivation quintile2003-06 and 2007-10 England Source Inequality in Disability-Free Life Expectancy byArea Deprivation England 2003ndash06 and 2007ndash10 (2013)

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0

Figure 84 Inequality in LE and DFLE for women at age 65 by area deprivation quin-tile 2003-06 and 2007-10 England Source Inequality in Disability-Free Life Expectancyby Area Deprivation England 2003ndash06 and 2007ndash10 (2013)

In 2003-2006 men aged 65 living in the least deprived areas could expect to live 38years longer than men living in the most deprived areas By 2007-2010 this differenceincreased to 41 years Similarly for women the difference was 31 years in the first periodand increased to 35 in the second In the same time life expectancy (LE) increased byaround one year for all five deprivation levels and for both genders

49

Foresight Trends

The differences in life expectancy between men and women increase with level ofdeprivation from an advantage of around 25 years for women in the least deprived areasto an advantage of 31 in both periods in the most deprived areas

Disability free life expectancy (DFLE) at 65 has fallen slightly across all deprivationgroups and for both genders (except for men living in middle quintile deprivation areas)Again the difference between the least and most deprived has increased for both gendersfrom 41 to 47 for women and from 51 to 54 for men

Table 83 Remaining life expectancy (LE) and and disability free life expectancy(DFLE) in years for men and women at age 65 by area deprivation quintile 2003-06and 2007-10 England (see Figures 83 and 84) Source Inequality in Disability-FreeLife Expectancy by Area Deprivation England 2003ndash06 and 2007ndash10 (2013)

2003ndash06 2007-10

Area deprivation quintile LE DFLE LE DFLE

Men

1 ndash Least deprived 187 132 198 129

2 ndash Second quintile 178 117 190 117

3 ndash Middle quintile 172 105 183 106

4 ndash Fourth quintile 162 100 171 94

5 ndash Most deprived 149 81 157 75

Women






50

Foresight Trends

Regional Differences in Mortality Rates by NS-SEC

England and WalesNorth EastSouth East

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial

Intermediate Smallemployers

own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical

Semi-routine Routine

Socioeconomic classification

Figure 85 Age-standardised mortality rates (per 100000) by socioeconomic classifica-tion (NS-SEC) in the North East and South West regions men aged 25mdash64 2001-ndash2003Source Table 3 in Siegler et al (2008)

Figure 85 plots the all cause mortality rates by socio-economic group (for men) andcompares the two regions with the worse (North East) and best (South East) averagerates and how they compare to the mortality rates in Englad and Wales as a whole

Table 84 Age-standardised mortality rates (per 100000) by socioeconomic classifica-tion (NS-SEC) in the North East and South West regions men aged 25mdash64 2001mdash2003(see Figure 85) Source Table 3 in Siegler et al (2008)

Selected UK regions

Socio-economic classification North East South East Englandand Wales

Higher managerial 215 214 194

Lower managerial 301 303 259

Intermediate 340 326 286

Small employers own account workers 373 347 307

Lower supervisory and technical 471 443 374

Semi-routine 514 597 473

Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends

Life Expectancy Trends by Social Class

replacemen

70

75

80

85

90Higher managerial administrative and professionalIntermediateRoutine and Manual

1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Figure 86 Life expectancy at birth by social class a) males and b) females Englandand Wales 1982ndash2011 95 percent confidence intervals shaded Source ONS (2015c)

The changes in life expectancy at birth over almost three decades are plotted onFigure 86 for both men and women in three socio-economic classes All have seenincreasing life expectancy with menrsquos increasing by over 6 years across all three classesand womenrsquos by around 4 years with the smallest increase of 36 years in the routineand manual labour female workers This group was overtaken by the men in highermanagerial administrative and professional occupations in the most recent data

Table 85 Life expectancy at birth by social class a) males and b) females Englandand Wales 1982ndash2011 95 percent confidence intervals shaded (see Figure 86) SourceONS (2015c)

Years

Socio-economic group 1982ndash1986

1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en

Higher Managerial Adminis-trative and Professional

8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370

Routine and Manual 7780 7820 7920 7960 8020 8140

Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends

Limiting Long-term Illness by Age Group and NS-SEC

MenMen WomenWomen

Higher professionalIntermediate

(Semi-)routineUnemployed







0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +

Small sample means these estimates are not reliable

Percentage with LLTIPercentage with LLTI

00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060

Figure 87 Percentage of males and females with limiting long-term illness by ageand socioeconomic classification of household reference person (NS-SEC) 2007 SourceONS (2013b)

Across all age groups and for both genders the prevalence of limiting long-term illnessincreases with lower socio-economic status of the household reference person The ratesare also systematically higher for women compared to men

Table 86 Percentage of males and females with limiting long-term illness (LLTI) byage and socioeconomic classification of household reference person (NS-SEC) 2007 (seeFigure 87) Source ONS (2013b)

Age group (years)

Socio-economic classification 0 ndash 15 16 ndash 44 45 ndash 64 65+

Gen

der

Wom

en

Higher professional 4 10 19 40

Intermediate 5 12 23 40

(Semi-)routine 5 13 33 45

Long-term unemployed 11 21 58 40

Men





53

Foresight Trends

Health Inequalities and Ethnicity

W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab

W Gypsy or Irish Traveller

A PakistaniA Bangladeshi

B Other

Other MixedW amp B African

W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60

Figure 88 The relationship between increasing age and percentage of people withlsquoNot Goodrsquo general health by ethnic group England and Wales 2011 Source ONS(2013a)

Number of hours of unpaid care provided per week

1 to 19 hours 20 to 49 hours over 50 hours

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

White - IrishWhite - Irish

White - BritishWhite - British

Black - CaribbeanBlack - Caribbean

Asian - IndianAsian - Indian

OtherOther

Asian - OtherAsian - Other

White - OtherWhite - Other

Asian - ChineseAsian - Chinese

Black - AfricanBlack - African

Other - ArabOther - Arab

White - Gypsy or Irish TravellerWhite - Gypsy or Irish Traveller

Asian - PakistaniAsian - Pakistani

Asian - BangladeshiAsian - Bangladeshi

Black - OtherBlack - Other

Mixed - OtherMixed - Other

Mixed - W amp B AfricanMixed - W amp B African

Mixed - W amp AsianMixed - W amp Asian

Mixed - W amp B CaribbeanMixed - W amp B Caribbean

Percent of population providing unpaid care

Figure 89 Ranked proportions of total unpaid care provision and the extent of unpaidcare provided by ethnic group England and Wales 2011 Source ONS (2013a)

54

Foresight Trends

The relationship between median age and proportion of people in poor health isshown in Figure 88 demonstrating that different levels of poor health among differentgroups is related to the different age structures of individual populations eg WhiteIrish and British and Black Caribbean people have the highest average age and corre-spondingly some of the highest levels of poor health

The proportion of people providing unpaid care work is 103 percent nationally withhigh variability across ethnic groups as shown in Figure 89 White British Irish andGypsy and Irish Traveller are most likely to provide care while Mixed White and BlackAfrica Chinese and Mixed White and Asian groups are about half as likely to providecare

Table 87 Percentage of people with poor general health median age and unpaidweekly care provision by ethnic group England and Wales 2011 (see Figures 88 and89) Source ONS (2013a)

Providing unpaid care work

(hours per week)

In poor Median 1ndash19 20ndash49 over 50

Ethnic group health age hours hours hours Total

Asian ndash Bangladeshi 170 24 47 18 23 88

Asian ndash Chinese 104 28 34 08 10 53

Asian ndash Indian 150 32 59 20 19 97

Asian ndash Other 123 31 39 15 15 69

Asian ndash Pakistani 167 25 48 19 24 91

Black ndash African 84 28 31 13 12 56

Black ndash Caribbean 229 40 64 15 19 98

Black ndash Other Black 133 23 42 12 14 69

Mixed ndash Other 110 20 40 09 11 60

Mixed ndash White amp Asian 88 17 36 08 09 53

Mixed ndash White amp Black African 92 16 31 08 09 49

Mixed ndash White amp Black Caribbean 119 18 38 10 12 61

Other 160 31 44 15 18 77

Other ndash Arab 140 27 30 13 18 60

White ndash British 200 42 71 14 26 111

White ndash Gypsy or Irish Traveller 298 26 44 19 44 107

White ndash Irish 278 53 67 14 29 110

White ndash Other 107 31 32 09 12 53

55

Foresight Trends

Health by Ethnicity and Age Group

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other

Percent reporting limiting healthPercent reporting limiting health

Age (years)

amp ethnic group

Figure 810 Proportion reporting their health limits typical activities by age andethnic group UK Weighted data from the 1st (2009ndash2011) wave of the UnderstandingSociety survey Source University of Essex (2015)

56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other

Percent reporting poor healthPercent reporting poor health

Age (years)

amp ethnic group

Figure 811 Proportion reporting poor health by age and ethnic group UK Weighteddata from the 1st (2009ndash2011) wave of the Understanding Society survey Source Uni-versity of Essex (2009ndash2014)

57

Foresight Trends

Table 88 Proportion reporting their health limits typical activities and poor healthby age and ethnic group UK Weighted data from the 1st (2009ndash2011) wave of theUnderstanding Society survey (see Figures 810 and 811) Source University of Essex(2015)

Gender and age group (years)

Men Women

Ethnic group 16ndash39 40ndash59 60ndash74 75+ 16ndash39 40ndash59 60ndash74 75+

Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h

WhitemdashBritish 563 1386 2949 5152 889 1886 3282 6249

WhitemdashIrish 607 2222 3344 5088 1249 2064 3085 8789

WhitemdashOther 295 1594 3364 7104 747 1378 3973 6284

Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100

AsianmdashOther 621 1633 3133 000 768 1976 3495 6386

BlackndashCaribbean 374 2159 3261 7385 918 2079 6194 7197

BlackmdashAfrican 349 878 4147 7904 834 1938 6340 6096

Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100




Other 336 699 1131 3402 331 908 1247 3174 Only one respondent

58

Foresight Trends

Income Inequality by Ethnic Group for over 60s

Bottom 2nd Middle 4th Top

0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile

Figure 812 Percentage of persons aged 60 years and over by (national) income quintileand ethnic group Net unequivalised personal income and weighted data from the 1st(2009-2011) wave of the Understanding Society survey Source University of Essex(2015)

In the over 60 age group all ethnicities except for White British are over-representedin the bottom poorest quintile In the top quintile however there is over-representationby Other Asian Mixed and White Other groups

59

Foresight Trends

Table 89 Percentage of persons aged 60 and over by (national) income quintile andethnic group Net unequivalised personal income and weighted data from the 1st (2009-2011) wave of the Understanding Society survey (see Figure 812) Source Universityof Essex (2015)

Quintiles Bottom Second Middle Fourth Top

White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends

9 Social and cultural change

Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5

18 mdash 24 25 mdash 34 35 mdash 44 45 mdash 54 55 mdash 64 65 mdash 74 75 and over

Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)

Figure 91 Proportion of people who volunteered in the previous 12 months by sexand age 201213 United Kingdom Source Siegler et al (2015)

Across all but the oldest age group women volunteer at higher rates than menalthough these differences are only statistically significant in the 35mdash44 age groupThe least likely to volunteer were people aged 25ndash44 and those 75 and over while thehighest levels are found in those aged 65-74 The main barriers to volunteering arework commitments and home and family commitments while it is likely that healthlimitations are the main restriction on the volunteering ability of people over 75

Table 91 Proportion of people who volunteered in the previous 12 months by sex andage 201213 United Kingdom (see Figure 91) Source Siegler et al (2015)

Age group (years)

Gender 18 mdash 24 25 mdash 34 35 mdash 44 45 mdash 54 55 mdash 64 65 mdash 74 75 +

Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends

Changes in Travel Rates for over 60s

replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business

Visit friends at home

Visit friends elsewhere

Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip

Other incl just walk

Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002

over 70 in 2013over 70 in 2002

Figure 92 Average number of trips per year (trip rates) by age group and purpose(selected) England in 2002 and 2013 Source Department of Transport (2015) TableNTS0611

Trip rates for shopping and personal business have increased over the past decade forolder people while the main reductions have been in business trips and visiting friendselsewhere as well as holidays and day trips The biggest differences between the two agegroups continue to be found in commuting visiting friends at home and other (incl justwalk) where over 70s make significantly fewer trips than their younger counterparts

Table 92 Average number of trips per year by age group and purpose England in 2002and 2013 (see Figure 92) Source Department of Transport (2015) Table NTS0611

Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013

Commuting 85 83 11 5

Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293

Personal business 129 166 132 144

Visit friends at private home 110 119 78 79

Visit friends elsewhere 59 51 46 40

Sport entertainment 76 76 59 53

Holiday day trip 48 44 34 32

Other including just walk 59 73 45 46

62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

Figure 93 Proportion of people who report feeling lonely more than half most orall the time by age 2011 to 2012 and proportion of people who report meeting sociallywith friends relatives or colleagues at least once a week by age 2012 to 2013 UnitedKingdom Source Siegler et al (2015)

Although there is an inverse correlation between peoplersquos levels of socialising and theirfeelings of loneliness this relationship is not as clear at older age groups After age 55the degree of socialising starts increasing again however the proportion of people feelinglonely especially over the age of 75 is not correspondingly lower The opportunities tosocialise clearly follow a u-shaped pattern with middle aged people reporting the lowestlevels of weekly social activities at just over 50 as well as the highest levels of lonelinessat almost 15

Table 93 Proportion of people who report feeling lonely and proportion of peoplewho report meeting socially with friends relatives or colleagues at least once a week byage 2012 to 2013 United Kingdom (see Figure 93) Source Siegler et al (2015)

Age group (years) Feeling lonely more than half Meeting socially

most or all the time at least once a week

18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography

DCLG (2013) Dwelling condition and safety - English housing survey Department forCommunities and Local Government httpswwwgovukgovernmentstatistical-

data-setsdwelling-condition-and-safety

mdash (2015) English Housing Survey Headline Report 2013-14 Section 1 Tables Figuresand Annex Tables Department for Communities and Local Government https

wwwgovukgovernmentuploadssystemuploadsattachment_datafile469214

2013-14_Section_1_Households_tables_and_figures_FINALxlsx

Department of Transport (2015) National Travel Survey Statistics httpswwwgov

ukgovernmentcollectionsnational-travel-survey-statistics Accessed 1112016

Department of Work and Pensions (2013) Extending Working Life Sector InitiativeAnalysis

Dutton WH and G Blank (2013) ldquoCultures of the internet the internet in BritainOxford Internet Survey 2013 Reportrdquo In available on line at httpoxis oii ox acuksitesoxis oii ox ac ukfilescontentfilespublicationsOxIS 2013 pdf

DWP (2015) Households Below Average Income 199495 ndash 201314 mdash Supportingdata tables Department for Work and Pensions ndashNational Statistics httpswww

govukgovernmentuploadssystemuploadsattachment_ datafile437253

hbai-2013-2014-supporting-excel-fileszip

Eurostat (2016) Fertility Indicators httpeceuropaeueurostatwebpopulation-

demography-migration-projectionsbirths-fertitily-datadatabase Accessed1522016

Human Mortality Database (2015) University of California Berkeley (USA) and MaxPlanck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany) httpwwwmortalityorgAccessed 2014

INED (2016) Developed countries database httpwwwinedfreneverything_about

_populationdataonline-databasesdeveloped-countries-database Accessed1522016

Inequality in Disability-Free Life Expectancy by Area Deprivation England 2003ndash06 and2007ndash10 (2013) Statistical Bulletin Office of National Statistics

Kirk D (1996) ldquoDemographic transition theoryrdquo In Population Studies 50 (3) pp 361ndash387

Leeson George W (2014) ldquoIncreasing Longevity and the New Demography of DeathrdquoIn International Journal of Population Research 2014

Madouros Vassilis (2006) ldquoProjections of the UK labour force 2006 to 2020rdquo In ONSLabour Market Trends

64

Foresight Trends

OECD (2015) ldquoPensions at a Glance 2015rdquo In Accessed 1622016 url http

wwwoecd -ilibraryorgsocial -issues -migration -healthpensions -at -a -

glance-2015_pension_glance-2015-en

Ofcom (2015a) Adultsrsquo media use and attitudes Report 2015 httpstakeholders

ofcomorgukbinariesresearchmedia-literacymedia-lit-10years2015_

Adults_media_use_and_attitudes_reportpdf

mdash (2015b) The Communications Market Report Full Report - Data httpstakeholders

ofcomorgukmarket -data -researchmarket -datacommunications-market -

reportscmr15downloads

Olah Livia Sz Rudolf Richter and Irena E Kotowska (2014) The new roles of men andwomen and implications for families and societies Families and societies WorkingPaper Series

ONS (2012) Healthy Life Expectancy Office of National Statistics httpwwwons

govukonsrelwellbeingmeasuring-national-well-beinghealthrft-health-

tab-1xls

mdash (2013a) Ethnic Variations in General Health and Unpaid Care Provision 2011httpwwwonsgovukonsdcp171776_318773pdf

mdash (2013b) General health (General Lifestyle Survey Overview - a report on the 2011General Lifestyle Survey) Office of National Statistics

mdash (2013c) Historic and Projected Mortality Data from the Period and Cohort LifeTables 2012-based Office of National Statistics Accessed 2014

mdash (2013d) National Population Projections 2012-based projections Office of NationalStatistics httpwwwonsgovukonsrelnppnational-population-

projections2012-based-projectionsindexhtml Accessed 2014

mdash (2014a) Characteristics of Home Workers 2014 Office of National Statistics http

wwwonsgovukonsdcp171776_365592pdf

mdash (2014b) Compendium of UK Statistics Population and Migratio Projections ofthe dependency ratio Office of National Statistics httpwwwonsgovukons

guide-methodcompendiumscompendium-of-uk-statisticspopulation-and-

migrationfind-out-moreindexhtml

mdash (2014c) Vital Statistics Population and health reference Tables

mdash (2015a) Ageing of the UK population Office of National Statistics httpwww

onsgovukonsrelpop-estimatepopulation-estimates-for-uk--england-

and-wales--scotland-and-northern-irelandmid-2014sty-ageing-of-the-

uk-populationhtml

mdash (2015b) Internet Access - Households and Individuals Dataset httpwwwons

govukonsrelrdit2internet-access---households-and-individuals2015

rft-ia-2015xls

mdash (2015c) ONS Longitudinal Study (LS) based estimates of Life Expectancy (LE) bythe National Statistics Socioeconomic Classification (NS-SEC) England and WalesOffice of National Statistics

65

Foresight Trends

ONS (2015d) Participation Rates in the UK Labour Market 2014 httpwwwons

govukonspublicationsre-reference-tableshtmledition=tcm3A77-396521

Shale John et al (2015) Households Below Average Income An analysis of the incomedistribution 199495 ndash 201314 Department for Work and Pensions ndashNational Statis-tics httpswwwgovukgovernmentuploadssystemuploadsattachment_data

file437246households-below-average-income-1994-95-to-2013-14pdf

Siegler Veronique Ann Langford and Brian Johnson (2008) ldquoRegional differences inmale mortality inequalities using the National Statistics Socio-economic Classifica-tion England and Wales 2001-03rdquo In Health statistics quarterly 40 p 6

Siegler Veronique Rittah Njeru and Jennifer Thomas (2015) Inequalities in Social Cap-ital by Age and Sex July 2015 httpwwwonsgovukonsdcp171766_410190

pdf ONS

University of Essex (2015) Understanding Society Waves 1-5 2009-2014 [computer file]7th Edition Colchester Essex UK Data Archive [distributor] November 2015 SN6614

Van de Kaa DJ (1987) ldquoEuropersquos second demographic transitionrdquo In PopulationBulletin 42 (1) pp 3ndash57

Wilson Rob et al (2014) Working futures 2012-2022

66

Population Ageing ndash age-structural change


Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates


How life expectancy is changing







How healthy life expectancy is changing


Dependency ratios and population over 65

Median Age




Education training and work








Housing and the built environment




Technology







Inequalities


Pensioners Income Distribution








Social and cultural change

Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends

Contents

1 Population Ageing ndash age-structural change 4

Population Structure 4

Fertility Rates 6

Mortality Rates 9

Projected Population Structure 10

2 How life expectancy is changing 11

Life Expectancy at Birth 11

Life Expectancy at 65 and 80 12

Survivorship at Young and Old Ages 13

Projected Life Expectancy at Birth 14

Projected Life Expectancy at 65 and 80 15

Projected Cohort Life Expectancies 16

3 How healthy life expectancy is changing 17

Healthy and Disability-free Life Expectancies 17

4 Dependency ratios and population over 65 19

Median Age 19

Proportion of people at older ages 20

Projected Working and Pension Age Populations 21

Old Age Dependency Ratio 22

5 Education training and work 23

Sectoral employment by age group 23

1

Foresight Trends











7 Technology 40







8 Inequalities 46








2

Foresight Trends




Volunteering 61


Loneliness 63

3

Foresight Trends



201520151950195019251925 95

9085807570656055504540353025201510

50

Males Females


Age

2 2 4 4 6 6 8 8 0 0 10 10



4

Foresight Trends


Males Females

1925 1950 2015 1925 1950 2015

0 ndash 4 1000 920 650 890 810 600

5 ndash 9 850 750 620 760 670 580

10 ndash 14 960 710 560 880 630 520

15 ndash 19 960 620 610 890 630 560

20 ndash 24 880 690 690 860 670 640

25 ndash 29 740 810 700 810 760 670

30 ndash 34 690 700 680 760 670 670

35 ndash 39 660 800 630 710 760 620

40 ndash 44 660 790 660 690 750 660

45 ndash 49 620 720 710 630 700 710

50 ndash 54 570 590 700 560 640 700

55 ndash 59 450 510 600 450 580 600

60 ndash 64 360 450 530 370 520 540

65 ndash 69 260 370 550 280 450 560

70 ndash 74 170 280 400 210 350 430

75 ndash 79 090 180 300 120 230 360

80 ndash 84 040 080 210 060 130 280

85 ndash 89 010 020 110 020 050 190

90 ndash 94 002 004 040 005 010 090

over 95 000 000 009 001 002 030

5

Foresight Trends

Fertility Rates

2012

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1960

Tota

lF

erti

lity

Rate

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

Year




Year 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

TFR 271 288 244 181 190 179 183 171 164 178 193 192


6

Foresight Trends

2013

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1960

10

15

20

25

30

35

Tota

lF

erti

lity

Rate


Year








7

Foresight Trends


Dual-Earners


SupportLiberal

TransitionPost-

Socialist

Year UnitedKingdom


GreeceItaly

PortugalSpain





Switzerland

BulgariaCzech

RepublicEstonia

GDR (until1989)

HungaryLatvia

LithuaniaPoland


1960 271 293 264 264 298 235

1965 288 283 275 268 317 221

1970 244 221 268 227 279 223

1975 181 200 252 170 228 221

1980 190 181 208 166 223 209

1985 179 169 161 151 193 204

1990 183 197 142 159 185 190

1995 171 186 127 152 168 139

2000 164 180 133 163 168 129

2005 178 186 135 163 170 130

2010 193 197 141 169 186 143

2013 192 180 129 163 177 145

8

Foresight Trends

Mortality Rates

2012

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

195319

5519

60


Year

Mort

ali

tyra

te

0

10

20

30

15

25

5




Year 1953 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

CDR 1140 1170 1150 1160 1180 1180 1170 1190 1120 1110 1040 970 900 890

IMR 2760 2580 2250 1960 1850 1600 1210 940 790 620 560 510 430 410

9

Foresight Trends


2015

2040

00 ndash 14

15 ndash 29

30 ndash 44

45 ndash 59

0360 ndash 74

075 amp over

5 5 15 15 20 20 25 25 0 0 10 10







2015 2040 2015 2040

0 ndash 14 1700 1600 1830 1690

15 ndash 29 1870 1750 2000 1860

30 ndash 44 1950 1720 1970 1850

45 ndash 59 2010 1780 2010 1810

60 ndash 74 1530 1630 1480 1540

75 amp over 950 1520 669 1250

10

Foresight Trends



Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

Females

Males

Difference

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Males 6670 6770 6800 6850 6900 6980 7110 7210 7340 7450 7590 7740 7860

Females 7180 7330 7390 7470 7520 7590 7700 7780 7880 7950 8060 8170 8250

Diff 510 560 590 620 620 610 590 570 540 500 470 430 390

11

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960

e65 males

e65 females

e80 males

e80 females

0

10

20

5

15

25




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

e65 males 1190 1181 1211 1212 1210 1238 1283 1318 1400 1454 1565 1681 1798

e65 females 1427 1474 1530 1576 1597 1638 1683 1710 1785 1810 1888 1962 2059

e80 males 501 501 537 547 557 552 568 576 625 638 688 739 806

e80 females 599 613 650 684 698 710 744 759 818 825 860 892 949

12

Foresight Trends


I(015)

I(6075)

Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

surv

ivin

g

Year

00

02

04

06

08

10

1922

-24

1925

-29

1930

-34

1935

-39

1940

-44

1945

-49

1950

-54

1955

-59

1960

-64

1965

-69

1970

-74

1975

-79

1980

-84

1985

-89

1990

-94

1995

-99

2000

-04

2005

-09

2010

-11




Years I(015) I(6075) Years I(015) I(6075)

1922-24 087 049 1970-74 098 061

1925-29 087 050 1975-79 098 064

1930-34 089 052 1980-84 098 065

1935-39 091 053 1985-89 099 067

1940-44 091 055 1990-94 099 069

1045-49 094 058 1995-99 099 072

1950-54 096 058 2000-04 099 076

1955-59 097 059 2005-09 099 079

1960-64 097 059 2010-11 099 081

1965-69 097 060

13

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045

Females

Males

Difference

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Males 7900 7980 8110 8220 8310 8380 8450 8510 8570

Females 8270 8360 8460 8560 8640 8710 8770 8830 8890

Diff 370 380 350 340 330 330 320 320 320

14

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045



0

10

20

5

15

25

30




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

e65 males 1830 1910 2010 2090 2160 2210 2260 2310 2370

e65 females 2070 2160 2250 2330 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600

e80 males 820 880 960 1020 1070 1110 1150 1190 1230

e80 females 950 1020 1100 1160 1220 1260 1300 1340 1380

15

Foresight Trends


replacemen

2012 2050

Att

ain

edage

0

20

40

60

65

75

80

85


Males Females

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100




e0 e20 e40 e60 e65 e75 e80 e85

Males2012 9060 6830 4630 2580 2120 1290 930 630

2050 9620 7370 5150 3040 2560 1680 1300 970

Females2012 9390 7170 4960 2870 2390 1500 1090 740

2050 9910 7680 5450 3310 2810 1880 1460 1100


16

Foresight Trends



2000

-02

2001

-03

2002

-04

2003

-05

2004

-06

2005

-07

2006

-08

2007

-09

2008

-10

2009

-11

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Years



0

40

20

60

80




17

Foresight Trends


LE HLE DFLE

Males

2000-02 757 607 603

2001-03 759 606 609

2002-04 762 610 615

2003-05 766 615 623

2004-06 770 620 624

2005-07 773 614 625

2006-08 775 625 634

2007-09 779 630 634

2008-10 782 635 639

2009-11 784 642 639

Females

2000-02 804 624 628

2001-03 805 622 630

2002-04 807 625 633

2003-05 809 629 639

2004-06 813 637 639

2005-07 815 629 637

2006-08 817 642 643

2007-09 820 650 651

2008-10 823 657 650

2009-11 824 661 647


18

Foresight Trends


Median Age

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

Med

ian

age

(yea

rs)

Year

30

32

34

36

38

40

42




Year 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Median Age 339 341 348 355 358 363 371 381 389 395 400

19

Foresight Trends


Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

Year

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

10

12

4

6

8

0

2

65 ndash 74

75 ndash 84

85 and over






1974 890 400 090 3390

1975 900 410 090 3380

1980 930 460 100 3430

1985 880 520 120 3540

1990 880 540 150 3580

1995 890 530 170 3650

2000 840 550 190 3760

2005 830 560 190 3870

2010 860 550 220 3950

2014 960 570 230 4000

20

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

204020

41


Year

50

40

30

20

10

0

Popula

tion

(in

mil

lion

s)





2012 39441 12280 321

2015 40282 12470 323

2020 42145 12146 347

2025 42760 13332 321

2030 43028 14932 288

2035 43751 15913 275

2041 44563 16837 265


21

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037


Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40




UnitedKingdom


2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends











7 Technology 40







8 Inequalities 46








2

Foresight Trends




Volunteering 61


Loneliness 63

3

Foresight Trends



201520151950195019251925 95

9085807570656055504540353025201510

50

Males Females


Age

2 2 4 4 6 6 8 8 0 0 10 10



4

Foresight Trends


Males Females

1925 1950 2015 1925 1950 2015

0 ndash 4 1000 920 650 890 810 600

5 ndash 9 850 750 620 760 670 580

10 ndash 14 960 710 560 880 630 520

15 ndash 19 960 620 610 890 630 560

20 ndash 24 880 690 690 860 670 640

25 ndash 29 740 810 700 810 760 670

30 ndash 34 690 700 680 760 670 670

35 ndash 39 660 800 630 710 760 620

40 ndash 44 660 790 660 690 750 660

45 ndash 49 620 720 710 630 700 710

50 ndash 54 570 590 700 560 640 700

55 ndash 59 450 510 600 450 580 600

60 ndash 64 360 450 530 370 520 540

65 ndash 69 260 370 550 280 450 560

70 ndash 74 170 280 400 210 350 430

75 ndash 79 090 180 300 120 230 360

80 ndash 84 040 080 210 060 130 280

85 ndash 89 010 020 110 020 050 190

90 ndash 94 002 004 040 005 010 090

over 95 000 000 009 001 002 030

5

Foresight Trends

Fertility Rates

2012

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1960

Tota

lF

erti

lity

Rate

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

Year




Year 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

TFR 271 288 244 181 190 179 183 171 164 178 193 192


6

Foresight Trends

2013

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1960

10

15

20

25

30

35

Tota

lF

erti

lity

Rate


Year








7

Foresight Trends


Dual-Earners


SupportLiberal

TransitionPost-

Socialist

Year UnitedKingdom


GreeceItaly

PortugalSpain





Switzerland

BulgariaCzech

RepublicEstonia

GDR (until1989)

HungaryLatvia

LithuaniaPoland


1960 271 293 264 264 298 235

1965 288 283 275 268 317 221

1970 244 221 268 227 279 223

1975 181 200 252 170 228 221

1980 190 181 208 166 223 209

1985 179 169 161 151 193 204

1990 183 197 142 159 185 190

1995 171 186 127 152 168 139

2000 164 180 133 163 168 129

2005 178 186 135 163 170 130

2010 193 197 141 169 186 143

2013 192 180 129 163 177 145

8

Foresight Trends

Mortality Rates

2012

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

195319

5519

60


Year

Mort

ali

tyra

te

0

10

20

30

15

25

5




Year 1953 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

CDR 1140 1170 1150 1160 1180 1180 1170 1190 1120 1110 1040 970 900 890

IMR 2760 2580 2250 1960 1850 1600 1210 940 790 620 560 510 430 410

9

Foresight Trends


2015

2040

00 ndash 14

15 ndash 29

30 ndash 44

45 ndash 59

0360 ndash 74

075 amp over

5 5 15 15 20 20 25 25 0 0 10 10







2015 2040 2015 2040

0 ndash 14 1700 1600 1830 1690

15 ndash 29 1870 1750 2000 1860

30 ndash 44 1950 1720 1970 1850

45 ndash 59 2010 1780 2010 1810

60 ndash 74 1530 1630 1480 1540

75 amp over 950 1520 669 1250

10

Foresight Trends



Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

Females

Males

Difference

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Males 6670 6770 6800 6850 6900 6980 7110 7210 7340 7450 7590 7740 7860

Females 7180 7330 7390 7470 7520 7590 7700 7780 7880 7950 8060 8170 8250

Diff 510 560 590 620 620 610 590 570 540 500 470 430 390

11

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960

e65 males

e65 females

e80 males

e80 females

0

10

20

5

15

25




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

e65 males 1190 1181 1211 1212 1210 1238 1283 1318 1400 1454 1565 1681 1798

e65 females 1427 1474 1530 1576 1597 1638 1683 1710 1785 1810 1888 1962 2059

e80 males 501 501 537 547 557 552 568 576 625 638 688 739 806

e80 females 599 613 650 684 698 710 744 759 818 825 860 892 949

12

Foresight Trends


I(015)

I(6075)

Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

surv

ivin

g

Year

00

02

04

06

08

10

1922

-24

1925

-29

1930

-34

1935

-39

1940

-44

1945

-49

1950

-54

1955

-59

1960

-64

1965

-69

1970

-74

1975

-79

1980

-84

1985

-89

1990

-94

1995

-99

2000

-04

2005

-09

2010

-11




Years I(015) I(6075) Years I(015) I(6075)

1922-24 087 049 1970-74 098 061

1925-29 087 050 1975-79 098 064

1930-34 089 052 1980-84 098 065

1935-39 091 053 1985-89 099 067

1940-44 091 055 1990-94 099 069

1045-49 094 058 1995-99 099 072

1950-54 096 058 2000-04 099 076

1955-59 097 059 2005-09 099 079

1960-64 097 059 2010-11 099 081

1965-69 097 060

13

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045

Females

Males

Difference

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Males 7900 7980 8110 8220 8310 8380 8450 8510 8570

Females 8270 8360 8460 8560 8640 8710 8770 8830 8890

Diff 370 380 350 340 330 330 320 320 320

14

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045



0

10

20

5

15

25

30




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

e65 males 1830 1910 2010 2090 2160 2210 2260 2310 2370

e65 females 2070 2160 2250 2330 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600

e80 males 820 880 960 1020 1070 1110 1150 1190 1230

e80 females 950 1020 1100 1160 1220 1260 1300 1340 1380

15

Foresight Trends


replacemen

2012 2050

Att

ain

edage

0

20

40

60

65

75

80

85


Males Females

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100




e0 e20 e40 e60 e65 e75 e80 e85

Males2012 9060 6830 4630 2580 2120 1290 930 630

2050 9620 7370 5150 3040 2560 1680 1300 970

Females2012 9390 7170 4960 2870 2390 1500 1090 740

2050 9910 7680 5450 3310 2810 1880 1460 1100


16

Foresight Trends



2000

-02

2001

-03

2002

-04

2003

-05

2004

-06

2005

-07

2006

-08

2007

-09

2008

-10

2009

-11

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Years



0

40

20

60

80




17

Foresight Trends


LE HLE DFLE

Males

2000-02 757 607 603

2001-03 759 606 609

2002-04 762 610 615

2003-05 766 615 623

2004-06 770 620 624

2005-07 773 614 625

2006-08 775 625 634

2007-09 779 630 634

2008-10 782 635 639

2009-11 784 642 639

Females

2000-02 804 624 628

2001-03 805 622 630

2002-04 807 625 633

2003-05 809 629 639

2004-06 813 637 639

2005-07 815 629 637

2006-08 817 642 643

2007-09 820 650 651

2008-10 823 657 650

2009-11 824 661 647


18

Foresight Trends


Median Age

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

Med

ian

age

(yea

rs)

Year

30

32

34

36

38

40

42




Year 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Median Age 339 341 348 355 358 363 371 381 389 395 400

19

Foresight Trends


Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

Year

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

10

12

4

6

8

0

2

65 ndash 74

75 ndash 84

85 and over






1974 890 400 090 3390

1975 900 410 090 3380

1980 930 460 100 3430

1985 880 520 120 3540

1990 880 540 150 3580

1995 890 530 170 3650

2000 840 550 190 3760

2005 830 560 190 3870

2010 860 550 220 3950

2014 960 570 230 4000

20

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

204020

41


Year

50

40

30

20

10

0

Popula

tion

(in

mil

lion

s)





2012 39441 12280 321

2015 40282 12470 323

2020 42145 12146 347

2025 42760 13332 321

2030 43028 14932 288

2035 43751 15913 275

2041 44563 16837 265


21

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037


Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40




UnitedKingdom


2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends




Volunteering 61


Loneliness 63

3

Foresight Trends



201520151950195019251925 95

9085807570656055504540353025201510

50

Males Females


Age

2 2 4 4 6 6 8 8 0 0 10 10



4

Foresight Trends


Males Females

1925 1950 2015 1925 1950 2015

0 ndash 4 1000 920 650 890 810 600

5 ndash 9 850 750 620 760 670 580

10 ndash 14 960 710 560 880 630 520

15 ndash 19 960 620 610 890 630 560

20 ndash 24 880 690 690 860 670 640

25 ndash 29 740 810 700 810 760 670

30 ndash 34 690 700 680 760 670 670

35 ndash 39 660 800 630 710 760 620

40 ndash 44 660 790 660 690 750 660

45 ndash 49 620 720 710 630 700 710

50 ndash 54 570 590 700 560 640 700

55 ndash 59 450 510 600 450 580 600

60 ndash 64 360 450 530 370 520 540

65 ndash 69 260 370 550 280 450 560

70 ndash 74 170 280 400 210 350 430

75 ndash 79 090 180 300 120 230 360

80 ndash 84 040 080 210 060 130 280

85 ndash 89 010 020 110 020 050 190

90 ndash 94 002 004 040 005 010 090

over 95 000 000 009 001 002 030

5

Foresight Trends

Fertility Rates

2012

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1960

Tota

lF

erti

lity

Rate

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

Year




Year 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

TFR 271 288 244 181 190 179 183 171 164 178 193 192


6

Foresight Trends

2013

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1960

10

15

20

25

30

35

Tota

lF

erti

lity

Rate


Year








7

Foresight Trends


Dual-Earners


SupportLiberal

TransitionPost-

Socialist

Year UnitedKingdom


GreeceItaly

PortugalSpain





Switzerland

BulgariaCzech

RepublicEstonia

GDR (until1989)

HungaryLatvia

LithuaniaPoland


1960 271 293 264 264 298 235

1965 288 283 275 268 317 221

1970 244 221 268 227 279 223

1975 181 200 252 170 228 221

1980 190 181 208 166 223 209

1985 179 169 161 151 193 204

1990 183 197 142 159 185 190

1995 171 186 127 152 168 139

2000 164 180 133 163 168 129

2005 178 186 135 163 170 130

2010 193 197 141 169 186 143

2013 192 180 129 163 177 145

8

Foresight Trends

Mortality Rates

2012

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

195319

5519

60


Year

Mort

ali

tyra

te

0

10

20

30

15

25

5




Year 1953 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

CDR 1140 1170 1150 1160 1180 1180 1170 1190 1120 1110 1040 970 900 890

IMR 2760 2580 2250 1960 1850 1600 1210 940 790 620 560 510 430 410

9

Foresight Trends


2015

2040

00 ndash 14

15 ndash 29

30 ndash 44

45 ndash 59

0360 ndash 74

075 amp over

5 5 15 15 20 20 25 25 0 0 10 10







2015 2040 2015 2040

0 ndash 14 1700 1600 1830 1690

15 ndash 29 1870 1750 2000 1860

30 ndash 44 1950 1720 1970 1850

45 ndash 59 2010 1780 2010 1810

60 ndash 74 1530 1630 1480 1540

75 amp over 950 1520 669 1250

10

Foresight Trends



Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

Females

Males

Difference

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Males 6670 6770 6800 6850 6900 6980 7110 7210 7340 7450 7590 7740 7860

Females 7180 7330 7390 7470 7520 7590 7700 7780 7880 7950 8060 8170 8250

Diff 510 560 590 620 620 610 590 570 540 500 470 430 390

11

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960

e65 males

e65 females

e80 males

e80 females

0

10

20

5

15

25




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

e65 males 1190 1181 1211 1212 1210 1238 1283 1318 1400 1454 1565 1681 1798

e65 females 1427 1474 1530 1576 1597 1638 1683 1710 1785 1810 1888 1962 2059

e80 males 501 501 537 547 557 552 568 576 625 638 688 739 806

e80 females 599 613 650 684 698 710 744 759 818 825 860 892 949

12

Foresight Trends


I(015)

I(6075)

Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

surv

ivin

g

Year

00

02

04

06

08

10

1922

-24

1925

-29

1930

-34

1935

-39

1940

-44

1945

-49

1950

-54

1955

-59

1960

-64

1965

-69

1970

-74

1975

-79

1980

-84

1985

-89

1990

-94

1995

-99

2000

-04

2005

-09

2010

-11




Years I(015) I(6075) Years I(015) I(6075)

1922-24 087 049 1970-74 098 061

1925-29 087 050 1975-79 098 064

1930-34 089 052 1980-84 098 065

1935-39 091 053 1985-89 099 067

1940-44 091 055 1990-94 099 069

1045-49 094 058 1995-99 099 072

1950-54 096 058 2000-04 099 076

1955-59 097 059 2005-09 099 079

1960-64 097 059 2010-11 099 081

1965-69 097 060

13

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045

Females

Males

Difference

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Males 7900 7980 8110 8220 8310 8380 8450 8510 8570

Females 8270 8360 8460 8560 8640 8710 8770 8830 8890

Diff 370 380 350 340 330 330 320 320 320

14

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045



0

10

20

5

15

25

30




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

e65 males 1830 1910 2010 2090 2160 2210 2260 2310 2370

e65 females 2070 2160 2250 2330 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600

e80 males 820 880 960 1020 1070 1110 1150 1190 1230

e80 females 950 1020 1100 1160 1220 1260 1300 1340 1380

15

Foresight Trends


replacemen

2012 2050

Att

ain

edage

0

20

40

60

65

75

80

85


Males Females

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100




e0 e20 e40 e60 e65 e75 e80 e85

Males2012 9060 6830 4630 2580 2120 1290 930 630

2050 9620 7370 5150 3040 2560 1680 1300 970

Females2012 9390 7170 4960 2870 2390 1500 1090 740

2050 9910 7680 5450 3310 2810 1880 1460 1100


16

Foresight Trends



2000

-02

2001

-03

2002

-04

2003

-05

2004

-06

2005

-07

2006

-08

2007

-09

2008

-10

2009

-11

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Years



0

40

20

60

80




17

Foresight Trends


LE HLE DFLE

Males

2000-02 757 607 603

2001-03 759 606 609

2002-04 762 610 615

2003-05 766 615 623

2004-06 770 620 624

2005-07 773 614 625

2006-08 775 625 634

2007-09 779 630 634

2008-10 782 635 639

2009-11 784 642 639

Females

2000-02 804 624 628

2001-03 805 622 630

2002-04 807 625 633

2003-05 809 629 639

2004-06 813 637 639

2005-07 815 629 637

2006-08 817 642 643

2007-09 820 650 651

2008-10 823 657 650

2009-11 824 661 647


18

Foresight Trends


Median Age

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

Med

ian

age

(yea

rs)

Year

30

32

34

36

38

40

42




Year 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Median Age 339 341 348 355 358 363 371 381 389 395 400

19

Foresight Trends


Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

Year

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

10

12

4

6

8

0

2

65 ndash 74

75 ndash 84

85 and over






1974 890 400 090 3390

1975 900 410 090 3380

1980 930 460 100 3430

1985 880 520 120 3540

1990 880 540 150 3580

1995 890 530 170 3650

2000 840 550 190 3760

2005 830 560 190 3870

2010 860 550 220 3950

2014 960 570 230 4000

20

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

204020

41


Year

50

40

30

20

10

0

Popula

tion

(in

mil

lion

s)





2012 39441 12280 321

2015 40282 12470 323

2020 42145 12146 347

2025 42760 13332 321

2030 43028 14932 288

2035 43751 15913 275

2041 44563 16837 265


21

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037


Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40




UnitedKingdom


2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends



201520151950195019251925 95

9085807570656055504540353025201510

50

Males Females


Age

2 2 4 4 6 6 8 8 0 0 10 10



4

Foresight Trends


Males Females

1925 1950 2015 1925 1950 2015

0 ndash 4 1000 920 650 890 810 600

5 ndash 9 850 750 620 760 670 580

10 ndash 14 960 710 560 880 630 520

15 ndash 19 960 620 610 890 630 560

20 ndash 24 880 690 690 860 670 640

25 ndash 29 740 810 700 810 760 670

30 ndash 34 690 700 680 760 670 670

35 ndash 39 660 800 630 710 760 620

40 ndash 44 660 790 660 690 750 660

45 ndash 49 620 720 710 630 700 710

50 ndash 54 570 590 700 560 640 700

55 ndash 59 450 510 600 450 580 600

60 ndash 64 360 450 530 370 520 540

65 ndash 69 260 370 550 280 450 560

70 ndash 74 170 280 400 210 350 430

75 ndash 79 090 180 300 120 230 360

80 ndash 84 040 080 210 060 130 280

85 ndash 89 010 020 110 020 050 190

90 ndash 94 002 004 040 005 010 090

over 95 000 000 009 001 002 030

5

Foresight Trends

Fertility Rates

2012

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1960

Tota

lF

erti

lity

Rate

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

Year




Year 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

TFR 271 288 244 181 190 179 183 171 164 178 193 192


6

Foresight Trends

2013

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1960

10

15

20

25

30

35

Tota

lF

erti

lity

Rate


Year








7

Foresight Trends


Dual-Earners


SupportLiberal

TransitionPost-

Socialist

Year UnitedKingdom


GreeceItaly

PortugalSpain





Switzerland

BulgariaCzech

RepublicEstonia

GDR (until1989)

HungaryLatvia

LithuaniaPoland


1960 271 293 264 264 298 235

1965 288 283 275 268 317 221

1970 244 221 268 227 279 223

1975 181 200 252 170 228 221

1980 190 181 208 166 223 209

1985 179 169 161 151 193 204

1990 183 197 142 159 185 190

1995 171 186 127 152 168 139

2000 164 180 133 163 168 129

2005 178 186 135 163 170 130

2010 193 197 141 169 186 143

2013 192 180 129 163 177 145

8

Foresight Trends

Mortality Rates

2012

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

195319

5519

60


Year

Mort

ali

tyra

te

0

10

20

30

15

25

5




Year 1953 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

CDR 1140 1170 1150 1160 1180 1180 1170 1190 1120 1110 1040 970 900 890

IMR 2760 2580 2250 1960 1850 1600 1210 940 790 620 560 510 430 410

9

Foresight Trends


2015

2040

00 ndash 14

15 ndash 29

30 ndash 44

45 ndash 59

0360 ndash 74

075 amp over

5 5 15 15 20 20 25 25 0 0 10 10







2015 2040 2015 2040

0 ndash 14 1700 1600 1830 1690

15 ndash 29 1870 1750 2000 1860

30 ndash 44 1950 1720 1970 1850

45 ndash 59 2010 1780 2010 1810

60 ndash 74 1530 1630 1480 1540

75 amp over 950 1520 669 1250

10

Foresight Trends



Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

Females

Males

Difference

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Males 6670 6770 6800 6850 6900 6980 7110 7210 7340 7450 7590 7740 7860

Females 7180 7330 7390 7470 7520 7590 7700 7780 7880 7950 8060 8170 8250

Diff 510 560 590 620 620 610 590 570 540 500 470 430 390

11

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960

e65 males

e65 females

e80 males

e80 females

0

10

20

5

15

25




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

e65 males 1190 1181 1211 1212 1210 1238 1283 1318 1400 1454 1565 1681 1798

e65 females 1427 1474 1530 1576 1597 1638 1683 1710 1785 1810 1888 1962 2059

e80 males 501 501 537 547 557 552 568 576 625 638 688 739 806

e80 females 599 613 650 684 698 710 744 759 818 825 860 892 949

12

Foresight Trends


I(015)

I(6075)

Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

surv

ivin

g

Year

00

02

04

06

08

10

1922

-24

1925

-29

1930

-34

1935

-39

1940

-44

1945

-49

1950

-54

1955

-59

1960

-64

1965

-69

1970

-74

1975

-79

1980

-84

1985

-89

1990

-94

1995

-99

2000

-04

2005

-09

2010

-11




Years I(015) I(6075) Years I(015) I(6075)

1922-24 087 049 1970-74 098 061

1925-29 087 050 1975-79 098 064

1930-34 089 052 1980-84 098 065

1935-39 091 053 1985-89 099 067

1940-44 091 055 1990-94 099 069

1045-49 094 058 1995-99 099 072

1950-54 096 058 2000-04 099 076

1955-59 097 059 2005-09 099 079

1960-64 097 059 2010-11 099 081

1965-69 097 060

13

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045

Females

Males

Difference

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Males 7900 7980 8110 8220 8310 8380 8450 8510 8570

Females 8270 8360 8460 8560 8640 8710 8770 8830 8890

Diff 370 380 350 340 330 330 320 320 320

14

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045



0

10

20

5

15

25

30




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

e65 males 1830 1910 2010 2090 2160 2210 2260 2310 2370

e65 females 2070 2160 2250 2330 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600

e80 males 820 880 960 1020 1070 1110 1150 1190 1230

e80 females 950 1020 1100 1160 1220 1260 1300 1340 1380

15

Foresight Trends


replacemen

2012 2050

Att

ain

edage

0

20

40

60

65

75

80

85


Males Females

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100




e0 e20 e40 e60 e65 e75 e80 e85

Males2012 9060 6830 4630 2580 2120 1290 930 630

2050 9620 7370 5150 3040 2560 1680 1300 970

Females2012 9390 7170 4960 2870 2390 1500 1090 740

2050 9910 7680 5450 3310 2810 1880 1460 1100


16

Foresight Trends



2000

-02

2001

-03

2002

-04

2003

-05

2004

-06

2005

-07

2006

-08

2007

-09

2008

-10

2009

-11

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Years



0

40

20

60

80




17

Foresight Trends


LE HLE DFLE

Males

2000-02 757 607 603

2001-03 759 606 609

2002-04 762 610 615

2003-05 766 615 623

2004-06 770 620 624

2005-07 773 614 625

2006-08 775 625 634

2007-09 779 630 634

2008-10 782 635 639

2009-11 784 642 639

Females

2000-02 804 624 628

2001-03 805 622 630

2002-04 807 625 633

2003-05 809 629 639

2004-06 813 637 639

2005-07 815 629 637

2006-08 817 642 643

2007-09 820 650 651

2008-10 823 657 650

2009-11 824 661 647


18

Foresight Trends


Median Age

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

Med

ian

age

(yea

rs)

Year

30

32

34

36

38

40

42




Year 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Median Age 339 341 348 355 358 363 371 381 389 395 400

19

Foresight Trends


Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

Year

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

10

12

4

6

8

0

2

65 ndash 74

75 ndash 84

85 and over






1974 890 400 090 3390

1975 900 410 090 3380

1980 930 460 100 3430

1985 880 520 120 3540

1990 880 540 150 3580

1995 890 530 170 3650

2000 840 550 190 3760

2005 830 560 190 3870

2010 860 550 220 3950

2014 960 570 230 4000

20

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

204020

41


Year

50

40

30

20

10

0

Popula

tion

(in

mil

lion

s)





2012 39441 12280 321

2015 40282 12470 323

2020 42145 12146 347

2025 42760 13332 321

2030 43028 14932 288

2035 43751 15913 275

2041 44563 16837 265


21

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037


Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40




UnitedKingdom


2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


Males Females

1925 1950 2015 1925 1950 2015

0 ndash 4 1000 920 650 890 810 600

5 ndash 9 850 750 620 760 670 580

10 ndash 14 960 710 560 880 630 520

15 ndash 19 960 620 610 890 630 560

20 ndash 24 880 690 690 860 670 640

25 ndash 29 740 810 700 810 760 670

30 ndash 34 690 700 680 760 670 670

35 ndash 39 660 800 630 710 760 620

40 ndash 44 660 790 660 690 750 660

45 ndash 49 620 720 710 630 700 710

50 ndash 54 570 590 700 560 640 700

55 ndash 59 450 510 600 450 580 600

60 ndash 64 360 450 530 370 520 540

65 ndash 69 260 370 550 280 450 560

70 ndash 74 170 280 400 210 350 430

75 ndash 79 090 180 300 120 230 360

80 ndash 84 040 080 210 060 130 280

85 ndash 89 010 020 110 020 050 190

90 ndash 94 002 004 040 005 010 090

over 95 000 000 009 001 002 030

5

Foresight Trends

Fertility Rates

2012

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1960

Tota

lF

erti

lity

Rate

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

Year




Year 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

TFR 271 288 244 181 190 179 183 171 164 178 193 192


6

Foresight Trends

2013

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1960

10

15

20

25

30

35

Tota

lF

erti

lity

Rate


Year








7

Foresight Trends


Dual-Earners


SupportLiberal

TransitionPost-

Socialist

Year UnitedKingdom


GreeceItaly

PortugalSpain





Switzerland

BulgariaCzech

RepublicEstonia

GDR (until1989)

HungaryLatvia

LithuaniaPoland


1960 271 293 264 264 298 235

1965 288 283 275 268 317 221

1970 244 221 268 227 279 223

1975 181 200 252 170 228 221

1980 190 181 208 166 223 209

1985 179 169 161 151 193 204

1990 183 197 142 159 185 190

1995 171 186 127 152 168 139

2000 164 180 133 163 168 129

2005 178 186 135 163 170 130

2010 193 197 141 169 186 143

2013 192 180 129 163 177 145

8

Foresight Trends

Mortality Rates

2012

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

195319

5519

60


Year

Mort

ali

tyra

te

0

10

20

30

15

25

5




Year 1953 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

CDR 1140 1170 1150 1160 1180 1180 1170 1190 1120 1110 1040 970 900 890

IMR 2760 2580 2250 1960 1850 1600 1210 940 790 620 560 510 430 410

9

Foresight Trends


2015

2040

00 ndash 14

15 ndash 29

30 ndash 44

45 ndash 59

0360 ndash 74

075 amp over

5 5 15 15 20 20 25 25 0 0 10 10







2015 2040 2015 2040

0 ndash 14 1700 1600 1830 1690

15 ndash 29 1870 1750 2000 1860

30 ndash 44 1950 1720 1970 1850

45 ndash 59 2010 1780 2010 1810

60 ndash 74 1530 1630 1480 1540

75 amp over 950 1520 669 1250

10

Foresight Trends



Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

Females

Males

Difference

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Males 6670 6770 6800 6850 6900 6980 7110 7210 7340 7450 7590 7740 7860

Females 7180 7330 7390 7470 7520 7590 7700 7780 7880 7950 8060 8170 8250

Diff 510 560 590 620 620 610 590 570 540 500 470 430 390

11

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960

e65 males

e65 females

e80 males

e80 females

0

10

20

5

15

25




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

e65 males 1190 1181 1211 1212 1210 1238 1283 1318 1400 1454 1565 1681 1798

e65 females 1427 1474 1530 1576 1597 1638 1683 1710 1785 1810 1888 1962 2059

e80 males 501 501 537 547 557 552 568 576 625 638 688 739 806

e80 females 599 613 650 684 698 710 744 759 818 825 860 892 949

12

Foresight Trends


I(015)

I(6075)

Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

surv

ivin

g

Year

00

02

04

06

08

10

1922

-24

1925

-29

1930

-34

1935

-39

1940

-44

1945

-49

1950

-54

1955

-59

1960

-64

1965

-69

1970

-74

1975

-79

1980

-84

1985

-89

1990

-94

1995

-99

2000

-04

2005

-09

2010

-11




Years I(015) I(6075) Years I(015) I(6075)

1922-24 087 049 1970-74 098 061

1925-29 087 050 1975-79 098 064

1930-34 089 052 1980-84 098 065

1935-39 091 053 1985-89 099 067

1940-44 091 055 1990-94 099 069

1045-49 094 058 1995-99 099 072

1950-54 096 058 2000-04 099 076

1955-59 097 059 2005-09 099 079

1960-64 097 059 2010-11 099 081

1965-69 097 060

13

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045

Females

Males

Difference

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Males 7900 7980 8110 8220 8310 8380 8450 8510 8570

Females 8270 8360 8460 8560 8640 8710 8770 8830 8890

Diff 370 380 350 340 330 330 320 320 320

14

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045



0

10

20

5

15

25

30




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

e65 males 1830 1910 2010 2090 2160 2210 2260 2310 2370

e65 females 2070 2160 2250 2330 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600

e80 males 820 880 960 1020 1070 1110 1150 1190 1230

e80 females 950 1020 1100 1160 1220 1260 1300 1340 1380

15

Foresight Trends


replacemen

2012 2050

Att

ain

edage

0

20

40

60

65

75

80

85


Males Females

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100




e0 e20 e40 e60 e65 e75 e80 e85

Males2012 9060 6830 4630 2580 2120 1290 930 630

2050 9620 7370 5150 3040 2560 1680 1300 970

Females2012 9390 7170 4960 2870 2390 1500 1090 740

2050 9910 7680 5450 3310 2810 1880 1460 1100


16

Foresight Trends



2000

-02

2001

-03

2002

-04

2003

-05

2004

-06

2005

-07

2006

-08

2007

-09

2008

-10

2009

-11

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Years



0

40

20

60

80




17

Foresight Trends


LE HLE DFLE

Males

2000-02 757 607 603

2001-03 759 606 609

2002-04 762 610 615

2003-05 766 615 623

2004-06 770 620 624

2005-07 773 614 625

2006-08 775 625 634

2007-09 779 630 634

2008-10 782 635 639

2009-11 784 642 639

Females

2000-02 804 624 628

2001-03 805 622 630

2002-04 807 625 633

2003-05 809 629 639

2004-06 813 637 639

2005-07 815 629 637

2006-08 817 642 643

2007-09 820 650 651

2008-10 823 657 650

2009-11 824 661 647


18

Foresight Trends


Median Age

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

Med

ian

age

(yea

rs)

Year

30

32

34

36

38

40

42




Year 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Median Age 339 341 348 355 358 363 371 381 389 395 400

19

Foresight Trends


Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

Year

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

10

12

4

6

8

0

2

65 ndash 74

75 ndash 84

85 and over






1974 890 400 090 3390

1975 900 410 090 3380

1980 930 460 100 3430

1985 880 520 120 3540

1990 880 540 150 3580

1995 890 530 170 3650

2000 840 550 190 3760

2005 830 560 190 3870

2010 860 550 220 3950

2014 960 570 230 4000

20

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

204020

41


Year

50

40

30

20

10

0

Popula

tion

(in

mil

lion

s)





2012 39441 12280 321

2015 40282 12470 323

2020 42145 12146 347

2025 42760 13332 321

2030 43028 14932 288

2035 43751 15913 275

2041 44563 16837 265


21

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037


Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40




UnitedKingdom


2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends

Fertility Rates

2012

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1960

Tota

lF

erti

lity

Rate

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

Year




Year 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

TFR 271 288 244 181 190 179 183 171 164 178 193 192


6

Foresight Trends

2013

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1960

10

15

20

25

30

35

Tota

lF

erti

lity

Rate


Year








7

Foresight Trends


Dual-Earners


SupportLiberal

TransitionPost-

Socialist

Year UnitedKingdom


GreeceItaly

PortugalSpain





Switzerland

BulgariaCzech

RepublicEstonia

GDR (until1989)

HungaryLatvia

LithuaniaPoland


1960 271 293 264 264 298 235

1965 288 283 275 268 317 221

1970 244 221 268 227 279 223

1975 181 200 252 170 228 221

1980 190 181 208 166 223 209

1985 179 169 161 151 193 204

1990 183 197 142 159 185 190

1995 171 186 127 152 168 139

2000 164 180 133 163 168 129

2005 178 186 135 163 170 130

2010 193 197 141 169 186 143

2013 192 180 129 163 177 145

8

Foresight Trends

Mortality Rates

2012

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

195319

5519

60


Year

Mort

ali

tyra

te

0

10

20

30

15

25

5




Year 1953 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

CDR 1140 1170 1150 1160 1180 1180 1170 1190 1120 1110 1040 970 900 890

IMR 2760 2580 2250 1960 1850 1600 1210 940 790 620 560 510 430 410

9

Foresight Trends


2015

2040

00 ndash 14

15 ndash 29

30 ndash 44

45 ndash 59

0360 ndash 74

075 amp over

5 5 15 15 20 20 25 25 0 0 10 10







2015 2040 2015 2040

0 ndash 14 1700 1600 1830 1690

15 ndash 29 1870 1750 2000 1860

30 ndash 44 1950 1720 1970 1850

45 ndash 59 2010 1780 2010 1810

60 ndash 74 1530 1630 1480 1540

75 amp over 950 1520 669 1250

10

Foresight Trends



Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

Females

Males

Difference

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Males 6670 6770 6800 6850 6900 6980 7110 7210 7340 7450 7590 7740 7860

Females 7180 7330 7390 7470 7520 7590 7700 7780 7880 7950 8060 8170 8250

Diff 510 560 590 620 620 610 590 570 540 500 470 430 390

11

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960

e65 males

e65 females

e80 males

e80 females

0

10

20

5

15

25




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

e65 males 1190 1181 1211 1212 1210 1238 1283 1318 1400 1454 1565 1681 1798

e65 females 1427 1474 1530 1576 1597 1638 1683 1710 1785 1810 1888 1962 2059

e80 males 501 501 537 547 557 552 568 576 625 638 688 739 806

e80 females 599 613 650 684 698 710 744 759 818 825 860 892 949

12

Foresight Trends


I(015)

I(6075)

Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

surv

ivin

g

Year

00

02

04

06

08

10

1922

-24

1925

-29

1930

-34

1935

-39

1940

-44

1945

-49

1950

-54

1955

-59

1960

-64

1965

-69

1970

-74

1975

-79

1980

-84

1985

-89

1990

-94

1995

-99

2000

-04

2005

-09

2010

-11




Years I(015) I(6075) Years I(015) I(6075)

1922-24 087 049 1970-74 098 061

1925-29 087 050 1975-79 098 064

1930-34 089 052 1980-84 098 065

1935-39 091 053 1985-89 099 067

1940-44 091 055 1990-94 099 069

1045-49 094 058 1995-99 099 072

1950-54 096 058 2000-04 099 076

1955-59 097 059 2005-09 099 079

1960-64 097 059 2010-11 099 081

1965-69 097 060

13

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045

Females

Males

Difference

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Males 7900 7980 8110 8220 8310 8380 8450 8510 8570

Females 8270 8360 8460 8560 8640 8710 8770 8830 8890

Diff 370 380 350 340 330 330 320 320 320

14

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045



0

10

20

5

15

25

30




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

e65 males 1830 1910 2010 2090 2160 2210 2260 2310 2370

e65 females 2070 2160 2250 2330 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600

e80 males 820 880 960 1020 1070 1110 1150 1190 1230

e80 females 950 1020 1100 1160 1220 1260 1300 1340 1380

15

Foresight Trends


replacemen

2012 2050

Att

ain

edage

0

20

40

60

65

75

80

85


Males Females

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100




e0 e20 e40 e60 e65 e75 e80 e85

Males2012 9060 6830 4630 2580 2120 1290 930 630

2050 9620 7370 5150 3040 2560 1680 1300 970

Females2012 9390 7170 4960 2870 2390 1500 1090 740

2050 9910 7680 5450 3310 2810 1880 1460 1100


16

Foresight Trends



2000

-02

2001

-03

2002

-04

2003

-05

2004

-06

2005

-07

2006

-08

2007

-09

2008

-10

2009

-11

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Years



0

40

20

60

80




17

Foresight Trends


LE HLE DFLE

Males

2000-02 757 607 603

2001-03 759 606 609

2002-04 762 610 615

2003-05 766 615 623

2004-06 770 620 624

2005-07 773 614 625

2006-08 775 625 634

2007-09 779 630 634

2008-10 782 635 639

2009-11 784 642 639

Females

2000-02 804 624 628

2001-03 805 622 630

2002-04 807 625 633

2003-05 809 629 639

2004-06 813 637 639

2005-07 815 629 637

2006-08 817 642 643

2007-09 820 650 651

2008-10 823 657 650

2009-11 824 661 647


18

Foresight Trends


Median Age

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

Med

ian

age

(yea

rs)

Year

30

32

34

36

38

40

42




Year 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Median Age 339 341 348 355 358 363 371 381 389 395 400

19

Foresight Trends


Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

Year

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

10

12

4

6

8

0

2

65 ndash 74

75 ndash 84

85 and over






1974 890 400 090 3390

1975 900 410 090 3380

1980 930 460 100 3430

1985 880 520 120 3540

1990 880 540 150 3580

1995 890 530 170 3650

2000 840 550 190 3760

2005 830 560 190 3870

2010 860 550 220 3950

2014 960 570 230 4000

20

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

204020

41


Year

50

40

30

20

10

0

Popula

tion

(in

mil

lion

s)





2012 39441 12280 321

2015 40282 12470 323

2020 42145 12146 347

2025 42760 13332 321

2030 43028 14932 288

2035 43751 15913 275

2041 44563 16837 265


21

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037


Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40




UnitedKingdom


2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends

2013

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1960

10

15

20

25

30

35

Tota

lF

erti

lity

Rate


Year








7

Foresight Trends


Dual-Earners


SupportLiberal

TransitionPost-

Socialist

Year UnitedKingdom


GreeceItaly

PortugalSpain





Switzerland

BulgariaCzech

RepublicEstonia

GDR (until1989)

HungaryLatvia

LithuaniaPoland


1960 271 293 264 264 298 235

1965 288 283 275 268 317 221

1970 244 221 268 227 279 223

1975 181 200 252 170 228 221

1980 190 181 208 166 223 209

1985 179 169 161 151 193 204

1990 183 197 142 159 185 190

1995 171 186 127 152 168 139

2000 164 180 133 163 168 129

2005 178 186 135 163 170 130

2010 193 197 141 169 186 143

2013 192 180 129 163 177 145

8

Foresight Trends

Mortality Rates

2012

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

195319

5519

60


Year

Mort

ali

tyra

te

0

10

20

30

15

25

5




Year 1953 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

CDR 1140 1170 1150 1160 1180 1180 1170 1190 1120 1110 1040 970 900 890

IMR 2760 2580 2250 1960 1850 1600 1210 940 790 620 560 510 430 410

9

Foresight Trends


2015

2040

00 ndash 14

15 ndash 29

30 ndash 44

45 ndash 59

0360 ndash 74

075 amp over

5 5 15 15 20 20 25 25 0 0 10 10







2015 2040 2015 2040

0 ndash 14 1700 1600 1830 1690

15 ndash 29 1870 1750 2000 1860

30 ndash 44 1950 1720 1970 1850

45 ndash 59 2010 1780 2010 1810

60 ndash 74 1530 1630 1480 1540

75 amp over 950 1520 669 1250

10

Foresight Trends



Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

Females

Males

Difference

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Males 6670 6770 6800 6850 6900 6980 7110 7210 7340 7450 7590 7740 7860

Females 7180 7330 7390 7470 7520 7590 7700 7780 7880 7950 8060 8170 8250

Diff 510 560 590 620 620 610 590 570 540 500 470 430 390

11

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960

e65 males

e65 females

e80 males

e80 females

0

10

20

5

15

25




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

e65 males 1190 1181 1211 1212 1210 1238 1283 1318 1400 1454 1565 1681 1798

e65 females 1427 1474 1530 1576 1597 1638 1683 1710 1785 1810 1888 1962 2059

e80 males 501 501 537 547 557 552 568 576 625 638 688 739 806

e80 females 599 613 650 684 698 710 744 759 818 825 860 892 949

12

Foresight Trends


I(015)

I(6075)

Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

surv

ivin

g

Year

00

02

04

06

08

10

1922

-24

1925

-29

1930

-34

1935

-39

1940

-44

1945

-49

1950

-54

1955

-59

1960

-64

1965

-69

1970

-74

1975

-79

1980

-84

1985

-89

1990

-94

1995

-99

2000

-04

2005

-09

2010

-11




Years I(015) I(6075) Years I(015) I(6075)

1922-24 087 049 1970-74 098 061

1925-29 087 050 1975-79 098 064

1930-34 089 052 1980-84 098 065

1935-39 091 053 1985-89 099 067

1940-44 091 055 1990-94 099 069

1045-49 094 058 1995-99 099 072

1950-54 096 058 2000-04 099 076

1955-59 097 059 2005-09 099 079

1960-64 097 059 2010-11 099 081

1965-69 097 060

13

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045

Females

Males

Difference

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Males 7900 7980 8110 8220 8310 8380 8450 8510 8570

Females 8270 8360 8460 8560 8640 8710 8770 8830 8890

Diff 370 380 350 340 330 330 320 320 320

14

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045



0

10

20

5

15

25

30




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

e65 males 1830 1910 2010 2090 2160 2210 2260 2310 2370

e65 females 2070 2160 2250 2330 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600

e80 males 820 880 960 1020 1070 1110 1150 1190 1230

e80 females 950 1020 1100 1160 1220 1260 1300 1340 1380

15

Foresight Trends


replacemen

2012 2050

Att

ain

edage

0

20

40

60

65

75

80

85


Males Females

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100




e0 e20 e40 e60 e65 e75 e80 e85

Males2012 9060 6830 4630 2580 2120 1290 930 630

2050 9620 7370 5150 3040 2560 1680 1300 970

Females2012 9390 7170 4960 2870 2390 1500 1090 740

2050 9910 7680 5450 3310 2810 1880 1460 1100


16

Foresight Trends



2000

-02

2001

-03

2002

-04

2003

-05

2004

-06

2005

-07

2006

-08

2007

-09

2008

-10

2009

-11

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Years



0

40

20

60

80




17

Foresight Trends


LE HLE DFLE

Males

2000-02 757 607 603

2001-03 759 606 609

2002-04 762 610 615

2003-05 766 615 623

2004-06 770 620 624

2005-07 773 614 625

2006-08 775 625 634

2007-09 779 630 634

2008-10 782 635 639

2009-11 784 642 639

Females

2000-02 804 624 628

2001-03 805 622 630

2002-04 807 625 633

2003-05 809 629 639

2004-06 813 637 639

2005-07 815 629 637

2006-08 817 642 643

2007-09 820 650 651

2008-10 823 657 650

2009-11 824 661 647


18

Foresight Trends


Median Age

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

Med

ian

age

(yea

rs)

Year

30

32

34

36

38

40

42




Year 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Median Age 339 341 348 355 358 363 371 381 389 395 400

19

Foresight Trends


Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

Year

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

10

12

4

6

8

0

2

65 ndash 74

75 ndash 84

85 and over






1974 890 400 090 3390

1975 900 410 090 3380

1980 930 460 100 3430

1985 880 520 120 3540

1990 880 540 150 3580

1995 890 530 170 3650

2000 840 550 190 3760

2005 830 560 190 3870

2010 860 550 220 3950

2014 960 570 230 4000

20

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

204020

41


Year

50

40

30

20

10

0

Popula

tion

(in

mil

lion

s)





2012 39441 12280 321

2015 40282 12470 323

2020 42145 12146 347

2025 42760 13332 321

2030 43028 14932 288

2035 43751 15913 275

2041 44563 16837 265


21

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037


Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40




UnitedKingdom


2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


Dual-Earners


SupportLiberal

TransitionPost-

Socialist

Year UnitedKingdom


GreeceItaly

PortugalSpain





Switzerland

BulgariaCzech

RepublicEstonia

GDR (until1989)

HungaryLatvia

LithuaniaPoland


1960 271 293 264 264 298 235

1965 288 283 275 268 317 221

1970 244 221 268 227 279 223

1975 181 200 252 170 228 221

1980 190 181 208 166 223 209

1985 179 169 161 151 193 204

1990 183 197 142 159 185 190

1995 171 186 127 152 168 139

2000 164 180 133 163 168 129

2005 178 186 135 163 170 130

2010 193 197 141 169 186 143

2013 192 180 129 163 177 145

8

Foresight Trends

Mortality Rates

2012

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

195319

5519

60


Year

Mort

ali

tyra

te

0

10

20

30

15

25

5




Year 1953 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

CDR 1140 1170 1150 1160 1180 1180 1170 1190 1120 1110 1040 970 900 890

IMR 2760 2580 2250 1960 1850 1600 1210 940 790 620 560 510 430 410

9

Foresight Trends


2015

2040

00 ndash 14

15 ndash 29

30 ndash 44

45 ndash 59

0360 ndash 74

075 amp over

5 5 15 15 20 20 25 25 0 0 10 10







2015 2040 2015 2040

0 ndash 14 1700 1600 1830 1690

15 ndash 29 1870 1750 2000 1860

30 ndash 44 1950 1720 1970 1850

45 ndash 59 2010 1780 2010 1810

60 ndash 74 1530 1630 1480 1540

75 amp over 950 1520 669 1250

10

Foresight Trends



Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

Females

Males

Difference

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Males 6670 6770 6800 6850 6900 6980 7110 7210 7340 7450 7590 7740 7860

Females 7180 7330 7390 7470 7520 7590 7700 7780 7880 7950 8060 8170 8250

Diff 510 560 590 620 620 610 590 570 540 500 470 430 390

11

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960

e65 males

e65 females

e80 males

e80 females

0

10

20

5

15

25




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

e65 males 1190 1181 1211 1212 1210 1238 1283 1318 1400 1454 1565 1681 1798

e65 females 1427 1474 1530 1576 1597 1638 1683 1710 1785 1810 1888 1962 2059

e80 males 501 501 537 547 557 552 568 576 625 638 688 739 806

e80 females 599 613 650 684 698 710 744 759 818 825 860 892 949

12

Foresight Trends


I(015)

I(6075)

Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

surv

ivin

g

Year

00

02

04

06

08

10

1922

-24

1925

-29

1930

-34

1935

-39

1940

-44

1945

-49

1950

-54

1955

-59

1960

-64

1965

-69

1970

-74

1975

-79

1980

-84

1985

-89

1990

-94

1995

-99

2000

-04

2005

-09

2010

-11




Years I(015) I(6075) Years I(015) I(6075)

1922-24 087 049 1970-74 098 061

1925-29 087 050 1975-79 098 064

1930-34 089 052 1980-84 098 065

1935-39 091 053 1985-89 099 067

1940-44 091 055 1990-94 099 069

1045-49 094 058 1995-99 099 072

1950-54 096 058 2000-04 099 076

1955-59 097 059 2005-09 099 079

1960-64 097 059 2010-11 099 081

1965-69 097 060

13

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045

Females

Males

Difference

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Males 7900 7980 8110 8220 8310 8380 8450 8510 8570

Females 8270 8360 8460 8560 8640 8710 8770 8830 8890

Diff 370 380 350 340 330 330 320 320 320

14

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045



0

10

20

5

15

25

30




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

e65 males 1830 1910 2010 2090 2160 2210 2260 2310 2370

e65 females 2070 2160 2250 2330 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600

e80 males 820 880 960 1020 1070 1110 1150 1190 1230

e80 females 950 1020 1100 1160 1220 1260 1300 1340 1380

15

Foresight Trends


replacemen

2012 2050

Att

ain

edage

0

20

40

60

65

75

80

85


Males Females

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100




e0 e20 e40 e60 e65 e75 e80 e85

Males2012 9060 6830 4630 2580 2120 1290 930 630

2050 9620 7370 5150 3040 2560 1680 1300 970

Females2012 9390 7170 4960 2870 2390 1500 1090 740

2050 9910 7680 5450 3310 2810 1880 1460 1100


16

Foresight Trends



2000

-02

2001

-03

2002

-04

2003

-05

2004

-06

2005

-07

2006

-08

2007

-09

2008

-10

2009

-11

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Years



0

40

20

60

80




17

Foresight Trends


LE HLE DFLE

Males

2000-02 757 607 603

2001-03 759 606 609

2002-04 762 610 615

2003-05 766 615 623

2004-06 770 620 624

2005-07 773 614 625

2006-08 775 625 634

2007-09 779 630 634

2008-10 782 635 639

2009-11 784 642 639

Females

2000-02 804 624 628

2001-03 805 622 630

2002-04 807 625 633

2003-05 809 629 639

2004-06 813 637 639

2005-07 815 629 637

2006-08 817 642 643

2007-09 820 650 651

2008-10 823 657 650

2009-11 824 661 647


18

Foresight Trends


Median Age

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

Med

ian

age

(yea

rs)

Year

30

32

34

36

38

40

42




Year 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Median Age 339 341 348 355 358 363 371 381 389 395 400

19

Foresight Trends


Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

Year

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

10

12

4

6

8

0

2

65 ndash 74

75 ndash 84

85 and over






1974 890 400 090 3390

1975 900 410 090 3380

1980 930 460 100 3430

1985 880 520 120 3540

1990 880 540 150 3580

1995 890 530 170 3650

2000 840 550 190 3760

2005 830 560 190 3870

2010 860 550 220 3950

2014 960 570 230 4000

20

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

204020

41


Year

50

40

30

20

10

0

Popula

tion

(in

mil

lion

s)





2012 39441 12280 321

2015 40282 12470 323

2020 42145 12146 347

2025 42760 13332 321

2030 43028 14932 288

2035 43751 15913 275

2041 44563 16837 265


21

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037


Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40




UnitedKingdom


2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends

Mortality Rates

2012

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

195319

5519

60


Year

Mort

ali

tyra

te

0

10

20

30

15

25

5




Year 1953 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

CDR 1140 1170 1150 1160 1180 1180 1170 1190 1120 1110 1040 970 900 890

IMR 2760 2580 2250 1960 1850 1600 1210 940 790 620 560 510 430 410

9

Foresight Trends


2015

2040

00 ndash 14

15 ndash 29

30 ndash 44

45 ndash 59

0360 ndash 74

075 amp over

5 5 15 15 20 20 25 25 0 0 10 10







2015 2040 2015 2040

0 ndash 14 1700 1600 1830 1690

15 ndash 29 1870 1750 2000 1860

30 ndash 44 1950 1720 1970 1850

45 ndash 59 2010 1780 2010 1810

60 ndash 74 1530 1630 1480 1540

75 amp over 950 1520 669 1250

10

Foresight Trends



Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

Females

Males

Difference

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Males 6670 6770 6800 6850 6900 6980 7110 7210 7340 7450 7590 7740 7860

Females 7180 7330 7390 7470 7520 7590 7700 7780 7880 7950 8060 8170 8250

Diff 510 560 590 620 620 610 590 570 540 500 470 430 390

11

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960

e65 males

e65 females

e80 males

e80 females

0

10

20

5

15

25




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

e65 males 1190 1181 1211 1212 1210 1238 1283 1318 1400 1454 1565 1681 1798

e65 females 1427 1474 1530 1576 1597 1638 1683 1710 1785 1810 1888 1962 2059

e80 males 501 501 537 547 557 552 568 576 625 638 688 739 806

e80 females 599 613 650 684 698 710 744 759 818 825 860 892 949

12

Foresight Trends


I(015)

I(6075)

Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

surv

ivin

g

Year

00

02

04

06

08

10

1922

-24

1925

-29

1930

-34

1935

-39

1940

-44

1945

-49

1950

-54

1955

-59

1960

-64

1965

-69

1970

-74

1975

-79

1980

-84

1985

-89

1990

-94

1995

-99

2000

-04

2005

-09

2010

-11




Years I(015) I(6075) Years I(015) I(6075)

1922-24 087 049 1970-74 098 061

1925-29 087 050 1975-79 098 064

1930-34 089 052 1980-84 098 065

1935-39 091 053 1985-89 099 067

1940-44 091 055 1990-94 099 069

1045-49 094 058 1995-99 099 072

1950-54 096 058 2000-04 099 076

1955-59 097 059 2005-09 099 079

1960-64 097 059 2010-11 099 081

1965-69 097 060

13

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045

Females

Males

Difference

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Males 7900 7980 8110 8220 8310 8380 8450 8510 8570

Females 8270 8360 8460 8560 8640 8710 8770 8830 8890

Diff 370 380 350 340 330 330 320 320 320

14

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045



0

10

20

5

15

25

30




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

e65 males 1830 1910 2010 2090 2160 2210 2260 2310 2370

e65 females 2070 2160 2250 2330 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600

e80 males 820 880 960 1020 1070 1110 1150 1190 1230

e80 females 950 1020 1100 1160 1220 1260 1300 1340 1380

15

Foresight Trends


replacemen

2012 2050

Att

ain

edage

0

20

40

60

65

75

80

85


Males Females

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100




e0 e20 e40 e60 e65 e75 e80 e85

Males2012 9060 6830 4630 2580 2120 1290 930 630

2050 9620 7370 5150 3040 2560 1680 1300 970

Females2012 9390 7170 4960 2870 2390 1500 1090 740

2050 9910 7680 5450 3310 2810 1880 1460 1100


16

Foresight Trends



2000

-02

2001

-03

2002

-04

2003

-05

2004

-06

2005

-07

2006

-08

2007

-09

2008

-10

2009

-11

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Years



0

40

20

60

80




17

Foresight Trends


LE HLE DFLE

Males

2000-02 757 607 603

2001-03 759 606 609

2002-04 762 610 615

2003-05 766 615 623

2004-06 770 620 624

2005-07 773 614 625

2006-08 775 625 634

2007-09 779 630 634

2008-10 782 635 639

2009-11 784 642 639

Females

2000-02 804 624 628

2001-03 805 622 630

2002-04 807 625 633

2003-05 809 629 639

2004-06 813 637 639

2005-07 815 629 637

2006-08 817 642 643

2007-09 820 650 651

2008-10 823 657 650

2009-11 824 661 647


18

Foresight Trends


Median Age

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

Med

ian

age

(yea

rs)

Year

30

32

34

36

38

40

42




Year 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Median Age 339 341 348 355 358 363 371 381 389 395 400

19

Foresight Trends


Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

Year

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

10

12

4

6

8

0

2

65 ndash 74

75 ndash 84

85 and over






1974 890 400 090 3390

1975 900 410 090 3380

1980 930 460 100 3430

1985 880 520 120 3540

1990 880 540 150 3580

1995 890 530 170 3650

2000 840 550 190 3760

2005 830 560 190 3870

2010 860 550 220 3950

2014 960 570 230 4000

20

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

204020

41


Year

50

40

30

20

10

0

Popula

tion

(in

mil

lion

s)





2012 39441 12280 321

2015 40282 12470 323

2020 42145 12146 347

2025 42760 13332 321

2030 43028 14932 288

2035 43751 15913 275

2041 44563 16837 265


21

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037


Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40




UnitedKingdom


2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


2015

2040

00 ndash 14

15 ndash 29

30 ndash 44

45 ndash 59

0360 ndash 74

075 amp over

5 5 15 15 20 20 25 25 0 0 10 10







2015 2040 2015 2040

0 ndash 14 1700 1600 1830 1690

15 ndash 29 1870 1750 2000 1860

30 ndash 44 1950 1720 1970 1850

45 ndash 59 2010 1780 2010 1810

60 ndash 74 1530 1630 1480 1540

75 amp over 950 1520 669 1250

10

Foresight Trends



Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

Females

Males

Difference

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Males 6670 6770 6800 6850 6900 6980 7110 7210 7340 7450 7590 7740 7860

Females 7180 7330 7390 7470 7520 7590 7700 7780 7880 7950 8060 8170 8250

Diff 510 560 590 620 620 610 590 570 540 500 470 430 390

11

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960

e65 males

e65 females

e80 males

e80 females

0

10

20

5

15

25




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

e65 males 1190 1181 1211 1212 1210 1238 1283 1318 1400 1454 1565 1681 1798

e65 females 1427 1474 1530 1576 1597 1638 1683 1710 1785 1810 1888 1962 2059

e80 males 501 501 537 547 557 552 568 576 625 638 688 739 806

e80 females 599 613 650 684 698 710 744 759 818 825 860 892 949

12

Foresight Trends


I(015)

I(6075)

Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

surv

ivin

g

Year

00

02

04

06

08

10

1922

-24

1925

-29

1930

-34

1935

-39

1940

-44

1945

-49

1950

-54

1955

-59

1960

-64

1965

-69

1970

-74

1975

-79

1980

-84

1985

-89

1990

-94

1995

-99

2000

-04

2005

-09

2010

-11




Years I(015) I(6075) Years I(015) I(6075)

1922-24 087 049 1970-74 098 061

1925-29 087 050 1975-79 098 064

1930-34 089 052 1980-84 098 065

1935-39 091 053 1985-89 099 067

1940-44 091 055 1990-94 099 069

1045-49 094 058 1995-99 099 072

1950-54 096 058 2000-04 099 076

1955-59 097 059 2005-09 099 079

1960-64 097 059 2010-11 099 081

1965-69 097 060

13

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045

Females

Males

Difference

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Males 7900 7980 8110 8220 8310 8380 8450 8510 8570

Females 8270 8360 8460 8560 8640 8710 8770 8830 8890

Diff 370 380 350 340 330 330 320 320 320

14

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045



0

10

20

5

15

25

30




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

e65 males 1830 1910 2010 2090 2160 2210 2260 2310 2370

e65 females 2070 2160 2250 2330 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600

e80 males 820 880 960 1020 1070 1110 1150 1190 1230

e80 females 950 1020 1100 1160 1220 1260 1300 1340 1380

15

Foresight Trends


replacemen

2012 2050

Att

ain

edage

0

20

40

60

65

75

80

85


Males Females

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100




e0 e20 e40 e60 e65 e75 e80 e85

Males2012 9060 6830 4630 2580 2120 1290 930 630

2050 9620 7370 5150 3040 2560 1680 1300 970

Females2012 9390 7170 4960 2870 2390 1500 1090 740

2050 9910 7680 5450 3310 2810 1880 1460 1100


16

Foresight Trends



2000

-02

2001

-03

2002

-04

2003

-05

2004

-06

2005

-07

2006

-08

2007

-09

2008

-10

2009

-11

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Years



0

40

20

60

80




17

Foresight Trends


LE HLE DFLE

Males

2000-02 757 607 603

2001-03 759 606 609

2002-04 762 610 615

2003-05 766 615 623

2004-06 770 620 624

2005-07 773 614 625

2006-08 775 625 634

2007-09 779 630 634

2008-10 782 635 639

2009-11 784 642 639

Females

2000-02 804 624 628

2001-03 805 622 630

2002-04 807 625 633

2003-05 809 629 639

2004-06 813 637 639

2005-07 815 629 637

2006-08 817 642 643

2007-09 820 650 651

2008-10 823 657 650

2009-11 824 661 647


18

Foresight Trends


Median Age

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

Med

ian

age

(yea

rs)

Year

30

32

34

36

38

40

42




Year 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Median Age 339 341 348 355 358 363 371 381 389 395 400

19

Foresight Trends


Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

Year

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

10

12

4

6

8

0

2

65 ndash 74

75 ndash 84

85 and over






1974 890 400 090 3390

1975 900 410 090 3380

1980 930 460 100 3430

1985 880 520 120 3540

1990 880 540 150 3580

1995 890 530 170 3650

2000 840 550 190 3760

2005 830 560 190 3870

2010 860 550 220 3950

2014 960 570 230 4000

20

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

204020

41


Year

50

40

30

20

10

0

Popula

tion

(in

mil

lion

s)





2012 39441 12280 321

2015 40282 12470 323

2020 42145 12146 347

2025 42760 13332 321

2030 43028 14932 288

2035 43751 15913 275

2041 44563 16837 265


21

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037


Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40




UnitedKingdom


2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends



Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

Females

Males

Difference

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Males 6670 6770 6800 6850 6900 6980 7110 7210 7340 7450 7590 7740 7860

Females 7180 7330 7390 7470 7520 7590 7700 7780 7880 7950 8060 8170 8250

Diff 510 560 590 620 620 610 590 570 540 500 470 430 390

11

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960

e65 males

e65 females

e80 males

e80 females

0

10

20

5

15

25




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

e65 males 1190 1181 1211 1212 1210 1238 1283 1318 1400 1454 1565 1681 1798

e65 females 1427 1474 1530 1576 1597 1638 1683 1710 1785 1810 1888 1962 2059

e80 males 501 501 537 547 557 552 568 576 625 638 688 739 806

e80 females 599 613 650 684 698 710 744 759 818 825 860 892 949

12

Foresight Trends


I(015)

I(6075)

Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

surv

ivin

g

Year

00

02

04

06

08

10

1922

-24

1925

-29

1930

-34

1935

-39

1940

-44

1945

-49

1950

-54

1955

-59

1960

-64

1965

-69

1970

-74

1975

-79

1980

-84

1985

-89

1990

-94

1995

-99

2000

-04

2005

-09

2010

-11




Years I(015) I(6075) Years I(015) I(6075)

1922-24 087 049 1970-74 098 061

1925-29 087 050 1975-79 098 064

1930-34 089 052 1980-84 098 065

1935-39 091 053 1985-89 099 067

1940-44 091 055 1990-94 099 069

1045-49 094 058 1995-99 099 072

1950-54 096 058 2000-04 099 076

1955-59 097 059 2005-09 099 079

1960-64 097 059 2010-11 099 081

1965-69 097 060

13

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045

Females

Males

Difference

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Males 7900 7980 8110 8220 8310 8380 8450 8510 8570

Females 8270 8360 8460 8560 8640 8710 8770 8830 8890

Diff 370 380 350 340 330 330 320 320 320

14

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045



0

10

20

5

15

25

30




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

e65 males 1830 1910 2010 2090 2160 2210 2260 2310 2370

e65 females 2070 2160 2250 2330 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600

e80 males 820 880 960 1020 1070 1110 1150 1190 1230

e80 females 950 1020 1100 1160 1220 1260 1300 1340 1380

15

Foresight Trends


replacemen

2012 2050

Att

ain

edage

0

20

40

60

65

75

80

85


Males Females

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100




e0 e20 e40 e60 e65 e75 e80 e85

Males2012 9060 6830 4630 2580 2120 1290 930 630

2050 9620 7370 5150 3040 2560 1680 1300 970

Females2012 9390 7170 4960 2870 2390 1500 1090 740

2050 9910 7680 5450 3310 2810 1880 1460 1100


16

Foresight Trends



2000

-02

2001

-03

2002

-04

2003

-05

2004

-06

2005

-07

2006

-08

2007

-09

2008

-10

2009

-11

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Years



0

40

20

60

80




17

Foresight Trends


LE HLE DFLE

Males

2000-02 757 607 603

2001-03 759 606 609

2002-04 762 610 615

2003-05 766 615 623

2004-06 770 620 624

2005-07 773 614 625

2006-08 775 625 634

2007-09 779 630 634

2008-10 782 635 639

2009-11 784 642 639

Females

2000-02 804 624 628

2001-03 805 622 630

2002-04 807 625 633

2003-05 809 629 639

2004-06 813 637 639

2005-07 815 629 637

2006-08 817 642 643

2007-09 820 650 651

2008-10 823 657 650

2009-11 824 661 647


18

Foresight Trends


Median Age

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

Med

ian

age

(yea

rs)

Year

30

32

34

36

38

40

42




Year 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Median Age 339 341 348 355 358 363 371 381 389 395 400

19

Foresight Trends


Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

Year

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

10

12

4

6

8

0

2

65 ndash 74

75 ndash 84

85 and over






1974 890 400 090 3390

1975 900 410 090 3380

1980 930 460 100 3430

1985 880 520 120 3540

1990 880 540 150 3580

1995 890 530 170 3650

2000 840 550 190 3760

2005 830 560 190 3870

2010 860 550 220 3950

2014 960 570 230 4000

20

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

204020

41


Year

50

40

30

20

10

0

Popula

tion

(in

mil

lion

s)





2012 39441 12280 321

2015 40282 12470 323

2020 42145 12146 347

2025 42760 13332 321

2030 43028 14932 288

2035 43751 15913 275

2041 44563 16837 265


21

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037


Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40




UnitedKingdom


2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1965

2005

1995

1985

1975

1950

1955

1960

e65 males

e65 females

e80 males

e80 females

0

10

20

5

15

25




Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

e65 males 1190 1181 1211 1212 1210 1238 1283 1318 1400 1454 1565 1681 1798

e65 females 1427 1474 1530 1576 1597 1638 1683 1710 1785 1810 1888 1962 2059

e80 males 501 501 537 547 557 552 568 576 625 638 688 739 806

e80 females 599 613 650 684 698 710 744 759 818 825 860 892 949

12

Foresight Trends


I(015)

I(6075)

Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

surv

ivin

g

Year

00

02

04

06

08

10

1922

-24

1925

-29

1930

-34

1935

-39

1940

-44

1945

-49

1950

-54

1955

-59

1960

-64

1965

-69

1970

-74

1975

-79

1980

-84

1985

-89

1990

-94

1995

-99

2000

-04

2005

-09

2010

-11




Years I(015) I(6075) Years I(015) I(6075)

1922-24 087 049 1970-74 098 061

1925-29 087 050 1975-79 098 064

1930-34 089 052 1980-84 098 065

1935-39 091 053 1985-89 099 067

1940-44 091 055 1990-94 099 069

1045-49 094 058 1995-99 099 072

1950-54 096 058 2000-04 099 076

1955-59 097 059 2005-09 099 079

1960-64 097 059 2010-11 099 081

1965-69 097 060

13

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045

Females

Males

Difference

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Males 7900 7980 8110 8220 8310 8380 8450 8510 8570

Females 8270 8360 8460 8560 8640 8710 8770 8830 8890

Diff 370 380 350 340 330 330 320 320 320

14

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045



0

10

20

5

15

25

30




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

e65 males 1830 1910 2010 2090 2160 2210 2260 2310 2370

e65 females 2070 2160 2250 2330 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600

e80 males 820 880 960 1020 1070 1110 1150 1190 1230

e80 females 950 1020 1100 1160 1220 1260 1300 1340 1380

15

Foresight Trends


replacemen

2012 2050

Att

ain

edage

0

20

40

60

65

75

80

85


Males Females

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100




e0 e20 e40 e60 e65 e75 e80 e85

Males2012 9060 6830 4630 2580 2120 1290 930 630

2050 9620 7370 5150 3040 2560 1680 1300 970

Females2012 9390 7170 4960 2870 2390 1500 1090 740

2050 9910 7680 5450 3310 2810 1880 1460 1100


16

Foresight Trends



2000

-02

2001

-03

2002

-04

2003

-05

2004

-06

2005

-07

2006

-08

2007

-09

2008

-10

2009

-11

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Years



0

40

20

60

80




17

Foresight Trends


LE HLE DFLE

Males

2000-02 757 607 603

2001-03 759 606 609

2002-04 762 610 615

2003-05 766 615 623

2004-06 770 620 624

2005-07 773 614 625

2006-08 775 625 634

2007-09 779 630 634

2008-10 782 635 639

2009-11 784 642 639

Females

2000-02 804 624 628

2001-03 805 622 630

2002-04 807 625 633

2003-05 809 629 639

2004-06 813 637 639

2005-07 815 629 637

2006-08 817 642 643

2007-09 820 650 651

2008-10 823 657 650

2009-11 824 661 647


18

Foresight Trends


Median Age

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

Med

ian

age

(yea

rs)

Year

30

32

34

36

38

40

42




Year 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Median Age 339 341 348 355 358 363 371 381 389 395 400

19

Foresight Trends


Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

Year

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

10

12

4

6

8

0

2

65 ndash 74

75 ndash 84

85 and over






1974 890 400 090 3390

1975 900 410 090 3380

1980 930 460 100 3430

1985 880 520 120 3540

1990 880 540 150 3580

1995 890 530 170 3650

2000 840 550 190 3760

2005 830 560 190 3870

2010 860 550 220 3950

2014 960 570 230 4000

20

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

204020

41


Year

50

40

30

20

10

0

Popula

tion

(in

mil

lion

s)





2012 39441 12280 321

2015 40282 12470 323

2020 42145 12146 347

2025 42760 13332 321

2030 43028 14932 288

2035 43751 15913 275

2041 44563 16837 265


21

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037


Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40




UnitedKingdom


2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


I(015)

I(6075)

Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

surv

ivin

g

Year

00

02

04

06

08

10

1922

-24

1925

-29

1930

-34

1935

-39

1940

-44

1945

-49

1950

-54

1955

-59

1960

-64

1965

-69

1970

-74

1975

-79

1980

-84

1985

-89

1990

-94

1995

-99

2000

-04

2005

-09

2010

-11




Years I(015) I(6075) Years I(015) I(6075)

1922-24 087 049 1970-74 098 061

1925-29 087 050 1975-79 098 064

1930-34 089 052 1980-84 098 065

1935-39 091 053 1985-89 099 067

1940-44 091 055 1990-94 099 069

1045-49 094 058 1995-99 099 072

1950-54 096 058 2000-04 099 076

1955-59 097 059 2005-09 099 079

1960-64 097 059 2010-11 099 081

1965-69 097 060

13

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045

Females

Males

Difference

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Males 7900 7980 8110 8220 8310 8380 8450 8510 8570

Females 8270 8360 8460 8560 8640 8710 8770 8830 8890

Diff 370 380 350 340 330 330 320 320 320

14

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045



0

10

20

5

15

25

30




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

e65 males 1830 1910 2010 2090 2160 2210 2260 2310 2370

e65 females 2070 2160 2250 2330 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600

e80 males 820 880 960 1020 1070 1110 1150 1190 1230

e80 females 950 1020 1100 1160 1220 1260 1300 1340 1380

15

Foresight Trends


replacemen

2012 2050

Att

ain

edage

0

20

40

60

65

75

80

85


Males Females

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100




e0 e20 e40 e60 e65 e75 e80 e85

Males2012 9060 6830 4630 2580 2120 1290 930 630

2050 9620 7370 5150 3040 2560 1680 1300 970

Females2012 9390 7170 4960 2870 2390 1500 1090 740

2050 9910 7680 5450 3310 2810 1880 1460 1100


16

Foresight Trends



2000

-02

2001

-03

2002

-04

2003

-05

2004

-06

2005

-07

2006

-08

2007

-09

2008

-10

2009

-11

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Years



0

40

20

60

80




17

Foresight Trends


LE HLE DFLE

Males

2000-02 757 607 603

2001-03 759 606 609

2002-04 762 610 615

2003-05 766 615 623

2004-06 770 620 624

2005-07 773 614 625

2006-08 775 625 634

2007-09 779 630 634

2008-10 782 635 639

2009-11 784 642 639

Females

2000-02 804 624 628

2001-03 805 622 630

2002-04 807 625 633

2003-05 809 629 639

2004-06 813 637 639

2005-07 815 629 637

2006-08 817 642 643

2007-09 820 650 651

2008-10 823 657 650

2009-11 824 661 647


18

Foresight Trends


Median Age

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

Med

ian

age

(yea

rs)

Year

30

32

34

36

38

40

42




Year 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Median Age 339 341 348 355 358 363 371 381 389 395 400

19

Foresight Trends


Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

Year

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

10

12

4

6

8

0

2

65 ndash 74

75 ndash 84

85 and over






1974 890 400 090 3390

1975 900 410 090 3380

1980 930 460 100 3430

1985 880 520 120 3540

1990 880 540 150 3580

1995 890 530 170 3650

2000 840 550 190 3760

2005 830 560 190 3870

2010 860 550 220 3950

2014 960 570 230 4000

20

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

204020

41


Year

50

40

30

20

10

0

Popula

tion

(in

mil

lion

s)





2012 39441 12280 321

2015 40282 12470 323

2020 42145 12146 347

2025 42760 13332 321

2030 43028 14932 288

2035 43751 15913 275

2041 44563 16837 265


21

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037


Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40




UnitedKingdom


2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045

Females

Males

Difference

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Year

0

10

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Males 7900 7980 8110 8220 8310 8380 8450 8510 8570

Females 8270 8360 8460 8560 8640 8710 8770 8830 8890

Diff 370 380 350 340 330 330 320 320 320

14

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045



0

10

20

5

15

25

30




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

e65 males 1830 1910 2010 2090 2160 2210 2260 2310 2370

e65 females 2070 2160 2250 2330 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600

e80 males 820 880 960 1020 1070 1110 1150 1190 1230

e80 females 950 1020 1100 1160 1220 1260 1300 1340 1380

15

Foresight Trends


replacemen

2012 2050

Att

ain

edage

0

20

40

60

65

75

80

85


Males Females

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100




e0 e20 e40 e60 e65 e75 e80 e85

Males2012 9060 6830 4630 2580 2120 1290 930 630

2050 9620 7370 5150 3040 2560 1680 1300 970

Females2012 9390 7170 4960 2870 2390 1500 1090 740

2050 9910 7680 5450 3310 2810 1880 1460 1100


16

Foresight Trends



2000

-02

2001

-03

2002

-04

2003

-05

2004

-06

2005

-07

2006

-08

2007

-09

2008

-10

2009

-11

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Years



0

40

20

60

80




17

Foresight Trends


LE HLE DFLE

Males

2000-02 757 607 603

2001-03 759 606 609

2002-04 762 610 615

2003-05 766 615 623

2004-06 770 620 624

2005-07 773 614 625

2006-08 775 625 634

2007-09 779 630 634

2008-10 782 635 639

2009-11 784 642 639

Females

2000-02 804 624 628

2001-03 805 622 630

2002-04 807 625 633

2003-05 809 629 639

2004-06 813 637 639

2005-07 815 629 637

2006-08 817 642 643

2007-09 820 650 651

2008-10 823 657 650

2009-11 824 661 647


18

Foresight Trends


Median Age

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

Med

ian

age

(yea

rs)

Year

30

32

34

36

38

40

42




Year 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Median Age 339 341 348 355 358 363 371 381 389 395 400

19

Foresight Trends


Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

Year

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

10

12

4

6

8

0

2

65 ndash 74

75 ndash 84

85 and over






1974 890 400 090 3390

1975 900 410 090 3380

1980 930 460 100 3430

1985 880 520 120 3540

1990 880 540 150 3580

1995 890 530 170 3650

2000 840 550 190 3760

2005 830 560 190 3870

2010 860 550 220 3950

2014 960 570 230 4000

20

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

204020

41


Year

50

40

30

20

10

0

Popula

tion

(in

mil

lion

s)





2012 39441 12280 321

2015 40282 12470 323

2020 42145 12146 347

2025 42760 13332 321

2030 43028 14932 288

2035 43751 15913 275

2041 44563 16837 265


21

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037


Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40




UnitedKingdom


2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy(y

ears

)

Year

2012

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2025

2035

2045



0

10

20

5

15

25

30




Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

e65 males 1830 1910 2010 2090 2160 2210 2260 2310 2370

e65 females 2070 2160 2250 2330 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600

e80 males 820 880 960 1020 1070 1110 1150 1190 1230

e80 females 950 1020 1100 1160 1220 1260 1300 1340 1380

15

Foresight Trends


replacemen

2012 2050

Att

ain

edage

0

20

40

60

65

75

80

85


Males Females

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100




e0 e20 e40 e60 e65 e75 e80 e85

Males2012 9060 6830 4630 2580 2120 1290 930 630

2050 9620 7370 5150 3040 2560 1680 1300 970

Females2012 9390 7170 4960 2870 2390 1500 1090 740

2050 9910 7680 5450 3310 2810 1880 1460 1100


16

Foresight Trends



2000

-02

2001

-03

2002

-04

2003

-05

2004

-06

2005

-07

2006

-08

2007

-09

2008

-10

2009

-11

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Years



0

40

20

60

80




17

Foresight Trends


LE HLE DFLE

Males

2000-02 757 607 603

2001-03 759 606 609

2002-04 762 610 615

2003-05 766 615 623

2004-06 770 620 624

2005-07 773 614 625

2006-08 775 625 634

2007-09 779 630 634

2008-10 782 635 639

2009-11 784 642 639

Females

2000-02 804 624 628

2001-03 805 622 630

2002-04 807 625 633

2003-05 809 629 639

2004-06 813 637 639

2005-07 815 629 637

2006-08 817 642 643

2007-09 820 650 651

2008-10 823 657 650

2009-11 824 661 647


18

Foresight Trends


Median Age

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

Med

ian

age

(yea

rs)

Year

30

32

34

36

38

40

42




Year 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Median Age 339 341 348 355 358 363 371 381 389 395 400

19

Foresight Trends


Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

Year

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

10

12

4

6

8

0

2

65 ndash 74

75 ndash 84

85 and over






1974 890 400 090 3390

1975 900 410 090 3380

1980 930 460 100 3430

1985 880 520 120 3540

1990 880 540 150 3580

1995 890 530 170 3650

2000 840 550 190 3760

2005 830 560 190 3870

2010 860 550 220 3950

2014 960 570 230 4000

20

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

204020

41


Year

50

40

30

20

10

0

Popula

tion

(in

mil

lion

s)





2012 39441 12280 321

2015 40282 12470 323

2020 42145 12146 347

2025 42760 13332 321

2030 43028 14932 288

2035 43751 15913 275

2041 44563 16837 265


21

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037


Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40




UnitedKingdom


2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


replacemen

2012 2050

Att

ain

edage

0

20

40

60

65

75

80

85


Males Females

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100




e0 e20 e40 e60 e65 e75 e80 e85

Males2012 9060 6830 4630 2580 2120 1290 930 630

2050 9620 7370 5150 3040 2560 1680 1300 970

Females2012 9390 7170 4960 2870 2390 1500 1090 740

2050 9910 7680 5450 3310 2810 1880 1460 1100


16

Foresight Trends



2000

-02

2001

-03

2002

-04

2003

-05

2004

-06

2005

-07

2006

-08

2007

-09

2008

-10

2009

-11

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Years



0

40

20

60

80




17

Foresight Trends


LE HLE DFLE

Males

2000-02 757 607 603

2001-03 759 606 609

2002-04 762 610 615

2003-05 766 615 623

2004-06 770 620 624

2005-07 773 614 625

2006-08 775 625 634

2007-09 779 630 634

2008-10 782 635 639

2009-11 784 642 639

Females

2000-02 804 624 628

2001-03 805 622 630

2002-04 807 625 633

2003-05 809 629 639

2004-06 813 637 639

2005-07 815 629 637

2006-08 817 642 643

2007-09 820 650 651

2008-10 823 657 650

2009-11 824 661 647


18

Foresight Trends


Median Age

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

Med

ian

age

(yea

rs)

Year

30

32

34

36

38

40

42




Year 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Median Age 339 341 348 355 358 363 371 381 389 395 400

19

Foresight Trends


Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

Year

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

10

12

4

6

8

0

2

65 ndash 74

75 ndash 84

85 and over






1974 890 400 090 3390

1975 900 410 090 3380

1980 930 460 100 3430

1985 880 520 120 3540

1990 880 540 150 3580

1995 890 530 170 3650

2000 840 550 190 3760

2005 830 560 190 3870

2010 860 550 220 3950

2014 960 570 230 4000

20

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

204020

41


Year

50

40

30

20

10

0

Popula

tion

(in

mil

lion

s)





2012 39441 12280 321

2015 40282 12470 323

2020 42145 12146 347

2025 42760 13332 321

2030 43028 14932 288

2035 43751 15913 275

2041 44563 16837 265


21

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037


Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40




UnitedKingdom


2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends



2000

-02

2001

-03

2002

-04

2003

-05

2004

-06

2005

-07

2006

-08

2007

-09

2008

-10

2009

-11

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)

Years



0

40

20

60

80




17

Foresight Trends


LE HLE DFLE

Males

2000-02 757 607 603

2001-03 759 606 609

2002-04 762 610 615

2003-05 766 615 623

2004-06 770 620 624

2005-07 773 614 625

2006-08 775 625 634

2007-09 779 630 634

2008-10 782 635 639

2009-11 784 642 639

Females

2000-02 804 624 628

2001-03 805 622 630

2002-04 807 625 633

2003-05 809 629 639

2004-06 813 637 639

2005-07 815 629 637

2006-08 817 642 643

2007-09 820 650 651

2008-10 823 657 650

2009-11 824 661 647


18

Foresight Trends


Median Age

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

Med

ian

age

(yea

rs)

Year

30

32

34

36

38

40

42




Year 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Median Age 339 341 348 355 358 363 371 381 389 395 400

19

Foresight Trends


Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

Year

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

10

12

4

6

8

0

2

65 ndash 74

75 ndash 84

85 and over






1974 890 400 090 3390

1975 900 410 090 3380

1980 930 460 100 3430

1985 880 520 120 3540

1990 880 540 150 3580

1995 890 530 170 3650

2000 840 550 190 3760

2005 830 560 190 3870

2010 860 550 220 3950

2014 960 570 230 4000

20

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

204020

41


Year

50

40

30

20

10

0

Popula

tion

(in

mil

lion

s)





2012 39441 12280 321

2015 40282 12470 323

2020 42145 12146 347

2025 42760 13332 321

2030 43028 14932 288

2035 43751 15913 275

2041 44563 16837 265


21

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037


Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40




UnitedKingdom


2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


LE HLE DFLE

Males

2000-02 757 607 603

2001-03 759 606 609

2002-04 762 610 615

2003-05 766 615 623

2004-06 770 620 624

2005-07 773 614 625

2006-08 775 625 634

2007-09 779 630 634

2008-10 782 635 639

2009-11 784 642 639

Females

2000-02 804 624 628

2001-03 805 622 630

2002-04 807 625 633

2003-05 809 629 639

2004-06 813 637 639

2005-07 815 629 637

2006-08 817 642 643

2007-09 820 650 651

2008-10 823 657 650

2009-11 824 661 647


18

Foresight Trends


Median Age

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

Med

ian

age

(yea

rs)

Year

30

32

34

36

38

40

42




Year 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Median Age 339 341 348 355 358 363 371 381 389 395 400

19

Foresight Trends


Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

Year

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

10

12

4

6

8

0

2

65 ndash 74

75 ndash 84

85 and over






1974 890 400 090 3390

1975 900 410 090 3380

1980 930 460 100 3430

1985 880 520 120 3540

1990 880 540 150 3580

1995 890 530 170 3650

2000 840 550 190 3760

2005 830 560 190 3870

2010 860 550 220 3950

2014 960 570 230 4000

20

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

204020

41


Year

50

40

30

20

10

0

Popula

tion

(in

mil

lion

s)





2012 39441 12280 321

2015 40282 12470 323

2020 42145 12146 347

2025 42760 13332 321

2030 43028 14932 288

2035 43751 15913 275

2041 44563 16837 265


21

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037


Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40




UnitedKingdom


2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


Median Age

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

Med

ian

age

(yea

rs)

Year

30

32

34

36

38

40

42




Year 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Median Age 339 341 348 355 358 363 371 381 389 395 400

19

Foresight Trends


Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

Year

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

10

12

4

6

8

0

2

65 ndash 74

75 ndash 84

85 and over






1974 890 400 090 3390

1975 900 410 090 3380

1980 930 460 100 3430

1985 880 520 120 3540

1990 880 540 150 3580

1995 890 530 170 3650

2000 840 550 190 3760

2005 830 560 190 3870

2010 860 550 220 3950

2014 960 570 230 4000

20

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

204020

41


Year

50

40

30

20

10

0

Popula

tion

(in

mil

lion

s)





2012 39441 12280 321

2015 40282 12470 323

2020 42145 12146 347

2025 42760 13332 321

2030 43028 14932 288

2035 43751 15913 275

2041 44563 16837 265


21

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037


Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40




UnitedKingdom


2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


Pro

port

ion

of

popula

tion

Year

2014

2010

2006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

10

12

4

6

8

0

2

65 ndash 74

75 ndash 84

85 and over






1974 890 400 090 3390

1975 900 410 090 3380

1980 930 460 100 3430

1985 880 520 120 3540

1990 880 540 150 3580

1995 890 530 170 3650

2000 840 550 190 3760

2005 830 560 190 3870

2010 860 550 220 3950

2014 960 570 230 4000

20

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

204020

41


Year

50

40

30

20

10

0

Popula

tion

(in

mil

lion

s)





2012 39441 12280 321

2015 40282 12470 323

2020 42145 12146 347

2025 42760 13332 321

2030 43028 14932 288

2035 43751 15913 275

2041 44563 16837 265


21

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037


Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40




UnitedKingdom


2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

204020

41


Year

50

40

30

20

10

0

Popula

tion

(in

mil

lion

s)





2012 39441 12280 321

2015 40282 12470 323

2020 42145 12146 347

2025 42760 13332 321

2030 43028 14932 288

2035 43751 15913 275

2041 44563 16837 265


21

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037


Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40




UnitedKingdom


2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037


Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Year

Old

-age

dep

enden

cyra

tio

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40




UnitedKingdom


2012 321 323 279 318 366

2015 323 325 280 319 366

2020 347 349 300 343 385

2025 321 324 278 310 343

2030 288 291 252 274 298

2035 275 278 244 261 275

2037 274 277 244 261 271

22

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends




FinanceFinance






RetailRetail

EducationEducation

TransportTransport


0 20 40 60 80 100




23

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


Age group


Finance 1015 7057 1806 122 10000

Construction 1077 6075 2669 179 10000

Manufacturing 795 6107 2915 183 10000



Hospitality 2989 5248 1575 188 10000

Retail 2069 5433 2287 210 10000

Education 640 6100 3057 203 10000

Transport 583 6076 3054 287 10000

Other sectors 1084 6116 2509 291 10000


Age group


Finance 461 605 359 293 518

Construction 700 747 759 619 742

Manufacturing 682 990 1094 831 979



Hospitality 1369 455 316 456 523

Retail 2478 1230 1198 1336 1366

Education 589 1062 1232 993 1051

Transport 230 454 528 603 451

Other sectors 2432 2595 2464 3469 2561

All sectors 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000

24

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers


70655545 605040

20

40

60

80

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Age(years)

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Per

cen

tage

of

work

ers

Full

-tim

eP

art

-tim

e



25

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


Males Females

Age Full-time

Part-time

PT Full-time

Part-time

PT

40 315 18 541 185 139 4290

41 316 18 539 174 132 4314

42 298 19 599 177 131 4253

43 308 11 345 177 130 4235

44 297 15 481 188 134 4161

45 291 12 396 186 138 4259

46 298 16 510 199 132 3988

47 303 14 442 208 135 3936

48 299 16 508 198 124 3851

49 271 16 557 192 120 3846

50 269 13 461 188 123 3955

51 260 12 441 176 118 4014

52 238 13 518 179 103 3652

53 249 15 568 171 111 3936

54 217 16 687 159 118 4260

55 204 14 642 134 107 4440

56 192 18 857 129 92 4163

57 174 18 938 121 99 4500

58 163 21 1141 110 88 4444

59 156 21 1186 98 84 4615

60 124 23 1565 70 75 5172

61 119 22 1560 47 67 5877

62 115 30 2069 34 69 6699

63 105 28 2105 30 68 6939

64 90 35 2800 24 54 6923

65 28 28 5000 12 39 7647

66 21 23 5227 9 36 8000

67 17 23 5750 8 27 7714

68 12 20 6250 4 23 8519

69 8 12 6000 3 19 8636

70 3 11 7857 1 14 9333

26

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80


1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

Part

icip

ati

on

rate






1994 731 844 685 79 682 749 626 81

1995 719 840 686 80 670 745 636 80

2000 719 847 693 82 679 767 654 83

2005 693 843 722 96 660 770 689 101

2010 640 853 749 124 617 786 731 133

2014 633 860 757 122 613 794 732 113

27

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


0

20

40

60

80

100

ISLN

ZL

SW

E

NO

RJP

NC

HE

ISR

KO

RC

HL

USAE

ST

DE

UA

US

CA

N

GB

R

NLD

ME

X

DN

KFINIR

L

PRTE

SPC

ZEIT

A

TU

RP

OL

FR

A

GR

CB

EL

AU

TLU

XSV

K

HU

NSV

NID

N

AR

G

CH

NIN

D

BR

ASA

UR

US

ZA

F

aged 55-59

aged 60-64

aged 65-6955-59 and 60-64

60-64 and 65-69

Employment rate


Per

cen

tem

plo

yed

Country





28

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends



Iceland 856 824 533


Sweden 819 663 212

Norway 798 639 277

Japan 781 607 401


Israel 716 585 368

Korea 708 583 445

Chile 691 579 382

USA 683 533 300

Estonia 741 530 265

Germany 772 526 139


Canada 693 500 248



Mexico 605 479 376

Denmark 782 475 159

Finland 742 444 131

Ireland 610 430 182


Spain 540 330 43


Italy 601 311 83

Turkey 347 271 189

Poland 572 263 97

France 683 251 56

Greece 439 241 65

Belgium 594 236 47

Austria 631 233 102


Slovakia 660 211 42

Hungary 632 194 43

Slovenia 504 189 99



China 663 492 360

India 600 470 370

Brazil 600 451 293


Russia 617 302 na


29

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


0

20

25

-5

15

10

5

Greece

Po

rtu

ga

l

Mex

ico

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Tu

rk

ey

Icela

nd

Den

ma

rk

Irela

nd

Sp

ain

No

rw

ay

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

ed

en

Ja

pa

n

Sw

itzerla

nd

Slo

ven

ia

Ca

na

da

Ko

rea

Fin

lan

d

OE

CD

New

Zea

lan

d

Fra

nce

Au

stra

lia

Hu

ng

ary

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Esto

nia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Belg

ium

Isra

el

Ch

ile

Po

lan

d

Ita

ly

Neth

erla

nd

s

Slo

va

kR

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Germ

an

y

Ch

ina

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

iA

ra

bia

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Per

cen

tage

poin

tdiff

eren

ce

Country




30

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends




Greece 3404 3987 -583

Portugal 4782 5024 -242

Mexico 5497 5376 121


Turkey 3140 2947 194

Iceland 8413 8204 209

Denmark 6323 6031 292

Ireland 5255 4962 293

Spain 4433 4124 309

Norway 7221 6800 421


Sweden 7420 6953 467

Japan 6865 6304 561


Slovenia 3542 2900 641

Canada 6043 5392 651

Korea 6563 5846 718

Finland 5920 5097 823

OECD 5603 4775 828


France 4706 3783 923

Australia 6149 5170 978

Hungary 4175 3106 1070


Estonia 6397 5249 1148


Belgium 4265 2998 1267

Israel 6512 5154 1359

Chile 6423 5004 1420

Poland 4245 2801 1444

Italy 4624 3055 1569



Austria 4510 2713 1797

Germany 6556 4179 2377

China 5902 5919 -017

Argentina 5990 5940 050

Brazil 5332 5257 074




India 5245 4397 849

Indonesia 6670 5180 149031

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


2005 202020152010200019951990

MalesFemales

0

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Per

cen

tec

on

om

icall

yact

ive




YearMales Females


1990 8874 928 7199 806

1995 8505 820 7091 788

2000 8456 776 7291 845

2005 8337 906 7335 1052

2010 8316 868 7443 1146

2015 8338 926 7532 1235

2020 8319 868 7612 1368


32

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Full-time

Part-time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers

Self-employed



Primarysector and

utilities



2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

Men

Women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Year

Sector

Per

cen

tof

work

ers



Primarysector and

utilities




33

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends





Men Womenemployed


2002 1747 675 373 1492 1303

2012 1848 686 493 1671 1356

2022 1972 727 495 1771 1423

Construction

2002 385 048 229 578 085

2012 332 042 255 550 079

2022 377 048 260 595 090

Manufacturing

2002 1033 106 071 888 322

2012 708 061 060 630 199

2022 599 064 053 533 183

Non-marketservices

2002 1290 926 118 673 1661

2012 1376 1022 175 725 1849

2022 1291 1063 162 677 1839


2002 152 035 045 171 062

2012 156 028 072 191 066

2022 145 029 055 168 061


2002 1493 1018 255 1462 1304

2012 1434 995 256 1508 1177

2022 1422 1019 220 1481 1180

34

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends




70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14


Private renters

Local Authority


0

15

5

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14



35

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends




Tenure type

Year Ow

noutr

ight

Buyi

ng

w

mort

gage

Pri

vate

ren

ters

Soc

ial

ren

ters

Loc

al

auth

ori

ty

Housi

ng

ass

ocia

tion

2003-04 6500 590 440 2470 1420 1050

2004-05 6670 530 490 2310 1400 910

2005-06 6710 650 440 2200 1260 940

2006-07 6620 660 480 2240 1210 1030

2007-08 6930 580 410 2080 1070 1010

2008-09 7020 460 470 2050 960 1100

2009-10 7050 540 460 1940 890 1050

2010-11 7100 480 490 1930 890 1050

2011-12 7050 500 540 1900 850 1050

2012-13 7180 550 510 1760 810 960

2013-14 7180 530 520 1770 750 1020

36

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


Non-decent homes

Minimum standard

Thermal comfort


10

0

15

5

30

20

35

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s




Year


Non-decent homes 3310 3040 2610 2260 2110 1990


Thermal comfort 1330 1100 1030 900 740 720

Repair 540 560 510 470 430 420


37

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends



0

5

10

15

20



amp services

Thermalcomfort

Reason for failure

Per

cen

tage

of

house

hold

s








Repair 43 42 46



38

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


0

30

10

40

20


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)



39

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends

7 Technology


16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

2006

2015

Year

80

60

40

20

0

Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

people




Age group (years)

Year 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006 63 61 63 56 36 9

2015 82 78 84 76 72 45

40

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


80

60

40

20

0

Year

2015201420132012

UK 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + ABC1 C2 DE


Per

cen

tof

people




Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Total 80 80 82 85

Age group (years)

16 ndash 24 90 91 94 91

25 ndash 34 90 91 92 94

35 ndash 54 88 90 89 94

55 ndash 64 75 79 78 82

65 ndash 74 64 56 67 75

75 + 27 31 32 40

Socio-economicgroup

ABC1 92 89 90 92

C2 78 79 80 84

DE 63 65 67 70


41

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


replacemen

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

16 - 24

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

25 - 34

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

35 - 44

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

45 - 54

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

55 - 64

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

over 65

808060604040202000

Activity

Percentage of users

Age group(years)


or magazines




Internet banking






Activity

Agegroup(years)




Internetbanking



16-24 73 92 45 60 23 46

25-34 77 85 53 76 28 62

35-44 74 72 53 69 32 63

45-54 63 56 53 59 20 52

55-64 53 44 48 46 15 47

65+ 32 15 27 26 6 27

42

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

Year

20152014201320122011201020092008

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

use

rs

Age group (years)




Year

Age group(years)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

16-24 65 78 74 77 79 86 83 90

25-34 72 82 79 88 87 92 90 90

35-44 68 75 78 79 84 83 88 87

45-54 59 65 70 73 72 77 81 79

55-64 45 52 58 59 61 67 70 69

65+ 16 20 22 27 32 36 40 42

43

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


100

16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 3425 - 34 35 - 4435 - 44 45 - 5445 - 54 55 - 6455 - 64 over 65over 65

20152014201320122011

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tof

UK

adult

s

Age group (years)




Year

Age group (years) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

16-24 52 71 86 90 84

25-34 45 66 75 88 88

35-44 34 58 71 78 84

45-54 27 40 46 66 74

55-64 9 23 34 40 49

65+ 2 5 7 13 17

44

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


100



Skill type

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts

80

60

40

20

0









Internet skill




Retired 33 72 29 34

45

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends

8 Inequalities




Materialdeprivation

40

30

20

10

0

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Year

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers





46

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends



After housing costs


median for thatyear


20102011 median

Materialdeprivation

199899 29 39

199900 28 36

200001 26 32

200102 26 28

200203 24 24

200304 20 20

200405 17 16

200506 16 15

200607 19 16

200708 18 15

200809 16 14

200910 15 13 10

201011 14 14 9

201112 13 15 8

201213 13 15 8

201314 14 16 9

47

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends





Average

Age group (years)

5

30

25

15

10

20

0

Per

cen

tof

pen

sion

ers







Under 65 11 18 20 23 29

65mdash69 11 19 23 23 24

70mdash74 11 26 25 21 16

75mdash79 14 27 27 19 14

80mdash84 14 28 26 20 13

Over 85 17 25 28 18 13


48

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


replacemen

Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2006-10

5

15

10

20

0

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)



Leastdeprived

Leastdeprived




deprivedMost

deprivedMost

deprived

LE 2003-06LE 2007-10

DFLE 2003-06DFLE 2007-10

Rem

ain

ing

life

expe

ctan

cyat

65

(yea

rs)


5

15

10

20

0



49

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends




2003ndash06 2007-10


Men






Women






50

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends



Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

Age

-sta

ndard

ised

mort

ality

rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Highermanagerial

Lowermanagerial


own accountworkers

Lowersupervisory

andtechnical






Selected UK regions








Routine 699 644 513

51

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


replacemen

70

75

80

85


1982-1986 1987-1991 1993-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

Women

Men

Women Men

Year

Lif

eex

pect

an

cy(y

ears

)




Years


1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

Gen

der W

om

en


8000 8140 8190 8270 8350 8470

Intermediate 7960 8080 8140 8160 8270 8370


Men


7490 7600 7730 7880 8000 8150

Intermediate 7350 7460 7580 7710 7820 8020


52

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


MenMen WomenWomen









0-15

16-44

45-64

65 +



00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060




Age group (years)


Gen

der

Wom

en





Men





53

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


W Irish

W British

B Caribbean

A Indian

Other

A Other

W OtherA Chinese

B African

O Arab



B Other


W amp Asian

W amp B Caribbean

Median Age (years)

Per

cen

tage

wit

hlsquon

ot

good

rsquoge

ner

al

hea

lth

5

10

10

15

20

20

25

30

30

35

40 50 60




0 2 4 6 8 10 12





OtherOther
















54

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends





(hours per week)















Other 160 31 44 15 18 77






55

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


56

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends

16mdash39

40mdash59

60mdash74

75+

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Men Women

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Mixed

Indian

Indian

Indian

Indian

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Other

Other

Other


Age (years)

amp ethnic group


57

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends



Men Women


Lim

itin

gH

ealt

h




Mixed 711 1065 3897 4931 972 2114 4490 8361

Indian 751 1965 4626 7191 904 3436 6320 9340

Pakistani 681 2316 6179 8415 1910 4423 8374 8319

Bangladeshi 1108 3234 6783 9150 1826 4202 5133 100




Other 517 1833 3167 7813 1222 2545 4959 7225

Poo

rH

eath




Mixed 183 116 1241 1773 449 676 1401 2857

Indian 148 562 664 2128 191 1000 1540 2939

Pakistani 215 1437 4069 2549 498 1704 2544 6325

Bangladeshi 194 1425 2641 1737 426 3036 1991 100





58

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends



0 20 40 60 80 100

Ethnic group

WhitemdashBritish

WhitemdashIrish

WhitemdashOther

Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

AsianmdashOther

BlackmdashCaribbean

BlackmdashAfrican

Other

Percent of over 60s

Income quintile



59

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends



White - British 1948 1990 2027 2017 2018

White - Irish 2030 2969 1707 1864 1431

White - Other 3342 1743 1281 1449 2185

Mixed 2078 1581 2357 1544 2440

Indian 3700 1571 1394 1463 1872

Pakistani 4133 2406 1146 1474 841

Bangladeshi 2513 2600 362 4007 518

Asian - Other 2515 2359 1155 1619 2352

Black - Caribbean 2418 2222 2198 1781 1381

Black - African 3355 2529 947 1739 1431

Other 2461 1868 2035 1984 1652

60

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


Volunteering

0

10

20

15

25

5


Men Women

Per

cen

tvo

lun

teer

ing

Age group (years)




Age group (years)


Men 186 137 142 184 194 230 160

Women 190 164 190 192 218 263 149

61

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends


replacemen

0 50 150 250 350100 200 300

Commuting

Business

Shopping

Personal Business



Sportentertainment

Holidayday trip


Purpose of trip

60 mdash 69 in 201360 mdash 69 in 2002





Age group (years)

60mdash69 over 70

Purpose of trip 2002 2013 2002 2013


Business 27 18 3 1

Shopping 287 340 278 293







62

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends

Loneliness

replacemen

0

20

40

60

80

Feeling lonely more

than half most

or all the time

Meeting socially

at least once

a week


Age group (years)

Per

cen

tof

resp

on

den

ts






18 to 24 770 8060

25 to 34 610 6260

35 to 44 1130 5630

45 to 54 1460 5070

55 to 64 1120 5490

65 to 74 970 6850

75 and over 1290 7520

63

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends

Bibliography






















64

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends













tab-1xls















uk-populationhtml



rft-ia-2015xls


65

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

Foresight Trends







pdf ONS




66



Fertility Rates

Mortality Rates












Median Age
















Technology







Inequalities











Volunteering


Loneliness

future of an ageing population - gov uk...2016/08/22 · foresight trends table 1.3: total...

Documents