future availability of minerals:sustainable development & the research agenda
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Future Availability of Minerals:Sustainable Development & the Research AgendaPresentation to the Board on Earth Sciences and Resources,National Research Council of the National AcademiesBy Jim CressDirectorSustainable DevelopmentStrategies GroupAttorney, Holme Roberts & Owen LLP10-18-10TRANSCRIPT
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F A il bili f Mi lFuture Availability of Minerals: Sustainable Development & Sustainable Development &
the Research Agenda
Presentation to the Board on Earth Sciences and Resources,Presentation to the Board on Earth Sciences and Resources, National Research Council of the National Academies
By Jim CressBy Jim CressDirector
Sustainable Development Strategies GroupStrategies Group
Attorney, Holme Roberts & Owen LLP
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SDSG: Who We AreSDSG: Who We AreSustainable Development Strategies Group (SDSG) is a p g p ( )collaborative group of researchers, consultants and other experts whose goal is to demonstrate the effectiveness of sustainable development concepts in solving real practical problems at thedevelopment concepts in solving real, practical problems at the local, regional, national and international levels.
SDSG is both a research organization and a practical source of policy, institutional, and capacity building advice.
SDSG is headquartered in Gunnison, Colorado, but works with collaborators in many regions of the globemany regions of the globe.
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SDSG: What We DoSDSG: What We DoResearch and teach about sustainable development and its concrete application in the use and conservation of natural resources, on local, regional national and global scalesregional, national and global scales.
Collaborate with governments, companies, communities and others to develop solutions and build capacity for wise use and conservation of
t lnatural resources.
Utilize interdisciplinary, participative methods in which our partner organizations develop and implement strategies, and SDSG delivers g p p g ,expertise as requested in managing conflict, building dialogue, and sharing experience.
Implement sustainable development ideas and applications to promoteImplement sustainable development ideas and applications to promote positive, broadly supported solutions in mining and mineral resources, oil and gas, timber, energy and other natural resource industries.
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Sustainable DevelopmentSustainable Development
Development that “meets the needs of the i h i i h bilipresent without compromising the ability
of future generations to meet their own needs.”
“Needs” - The obligation to improve the lives of the very poory p
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What Does “Sustainable Development” Mean in Mineral Development context?
Long-Term Supply of MineralsMineral development within the
carrying capacity of the biospherecarrying capacity of the biosphereLong-Term Prosperity— mineral
exporting/developing countries as well as mineral using/developedwell as mineral using/developed countries
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What Does “Sustainable Development” Mean in Mineral Development context?Long-Term Prosperity—Long-Term Prosperity– Direct use of minerals supports human well being
(e g concrete for homes fertilizer for crops)(e.g. concrete for homes, fertilizer for crops)– Minerals are vital to the complex web of our
economy (e g rare earths for the “new energyeconomy (e.g. rare earths for the new energy economy”)
– Minerals generate wealth which can be used toMinerals generate wealth which can be used to alleviate poverty (even if it always hasn’t been)
– Minerals are a generator of livelihoodsg
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Sustainable Development And Minerals:h kA Research Framework
A sustainable development framework for h i di i l i lresearch incorporates some traditional environmental
analysis, but differs from a traditional environmental research framework in a number of ways:research framework in a number of ways:
• It is not just about eliminating and minimizingnegative impacts it is about maximizing the positivenegative impacts, it is about maximizing the positive impacts, and maximizing the value to society throughout the minerals cycle
• It has a focus on development benefits of a project, such as the livelihoods that the project generates
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Sustainable Development And Minerals:h kA Research Framework
A sustainable development framework for research (con’t):
• Aggressively looks for ways to create positive environmental externalities – and finds that there are some, e.g., the use of abandoned mines as habitat for endangered species of batsabandoned mines as habitat for endangered species of bats
• Distinguishes between short term environmental impacts and those that reduce natural capital, i e , that reduce the abilitythose that reduce natural capital, i.e., that reduce the ability of ecosystems to produce benefits
• Gives important weight to the social and human impacts of p g pprojects; such as health, housing, education, impacts on traditions and cultures
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The Research Agenda: Eight Challengesg g g
These are far from the only challenges, but these eight are y g gvery difficult:
• World population is increasing –a 300% increase since 1950• Per capita minerals use is increasing and for some minerals• Per capita minerals use is increasing, and for some minerals
clearly needs to keep increasing if we are to meet the needs of the poor (e.g., copper for electrification)I d l i i d titi ith• Increased population creates increased competition with other land uses – agriculture, housing, space for biodiversity, watersheds are all under pressure
• Mining is very energy intensive, and somehow needs to produce more with less energy
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The Research Agenda: Eight Challengesg g g
( ’t)(con’t):• Mining is very water intensive, and somehow needs to
produce more with less waterp oduce o e w t ess wate• For many minerals, there is an important need to identify
additional sources of supplyMi i t i l th th h ti it• Mining moves more material than any other human activity (except maybe soil erosion). It generates very large volumes of waste and it is not clear how much the biosphere can absorb
• Where are the technologies that can meet our needs with reduced amounts of minerals, to recycle and reuse more easily, or to produce virgin materials with less footprint?
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Eight Challenges to Sustainable Development of MineralsDevelopment of Minerals
G i P l tiGrowing Populations
Growing Per Capita Mi l U
Physical Availabilityof MineralsMineral Use of Minerals
Competition For EnergyCompetition For Land Competition For Energy
Competition For Water
Technology Development
Biosphere’s Capacity To Absorb Mining Waste Streams
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Growing PopulationsGrowing Populations
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Who Needs Minerals?Who Needs Minerals?
• Developing and Developed CountriesDeveloping and Developed Countries
• Greatest need in underdevelopedGreatest need in underdevelopedCountries (growing populations, resource use
intensity)y)
• Competition between developing and de eloped co ntries o er minerals isdeveloped countries over minerals is increasing
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A Growing World PopulationA Growing World Population
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World Population GrowthDeveloping vs. Developed Countriesp g p
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Global Income DistributionGlobal Income Distribution
The richest 10% of the world gets 53.1% of all the
The richest 20% get 72.9% of the income
income
The bottom 10% get 0.6%
“Trends in Global Income Distribution 1970 – 2000, and Scenarios for 2015,” UNDP Human Development Report Office Occasional Paper (2005).
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Poverty vs The EnvironmentPoverty vs. The Environment• Ending extreme poverty is a moral imperative now that the means to
achieve this age old dream are within our grasp. Failing to grasp this opportunity is morally indefensibleopportunity is morally indefensible.
See Jeffrey Sachs, The End of Poverty (2005)
• We have critical world problems of environmental stress – changes in p gocean chemistry, loss of biological diversity, massive soil loss in agriculture, marine ‘dead zones,’ collapse of commercial fisheries, climate change – that threaten our ability to survive on the only habitable planet we know. If we don’t solve these problems, it won’t matter if we solve any of p , ythe rest.
See Herman Daly, For the Common Good: Redirecting the Economy towarCommunity,the Environment, and a Sustainable Future (1994).
• There is a widely shared idea that the more we reduce poverty, the more we stress environmental systems, and the more we protect the environment the more people must be doomed to poverty.
• Is this choice necessary, or a false choice?
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Growing Per Capita Mineral Use
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Minerals Drive DevelopmentMinerals Drive Development
CopperCopper– Essential for electrification and rising standard of
living Also important to housing autoliving. Also important to housing, auto, information technology & alternative energy
Steel (iron molybdenum etc )Steel (iron, molybdenum, etc.)– Essential for construction/industrializationC lCoal– Cheap plentiful source of energy for
ind striali ation/electricit generationindustrialization/electricity generation
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Copper Consumption per Capita pp p p p(tons per person, 17 of 20 most populous countries)
• Table 3. Copper consumption per capita (tons per person) in 17 of the 20 most populous countries in the world.in the world.
• 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000• China 0.00022 0.00016 0.00038 0.00049 0.00051 0.00101 0.00168• India 0.00010 0.00006 0.00009 0.00014 0.00013 0.00013 0.00040• USA 0.01005 0.00794 0.00976 0.00664 0.00794 0.00962 0.01125• Indonesia 0.00001 0.00005 0.00014 0.00009 0.00018 0.00043 0.00030• Brazil 0.00054 0.00121 0.00229 0.00164 0.00119 0.00157 0.00225• Russia 0.00239 0.00270 0.00394 0.00312 0.00342 0.00060 0.00138• Japan 0.00894 0.00794 0.01060 0.01094 0.01279 0.01154 0.01034
M i 0 00098 0 00090 0 00191 0 00182 0 00140 0 00053 0 00580• Mexico 0.00098 0.00090 0.00191 0.00182 0.00140 0.00053 0.00580• Germany 0.01195 0.01308 0.01278 0.01398 0.01727 0.01255 0.01643• Philippines 0.00011 0.00008 0.00010 0.00001 0.00032 0.00048 0.00022• Iran 0.00012 0.00023 0.00003 0.00030 0.00085 0.00140 0.00159• Egypt 0 00002 0 00009 0 00005 0 00005 0 00006 0 00007 0 00007Egypt 0.00002 0.00009 0.00005 0.00005 0.00006 0.00007 0.00007• Turkey 0.00000 0.00027 0.00060 0.00180 0.000183 0.00250 0.00259• Thailand 0.00000 0.00005 0.00010 0.00053 0.00097 0.00265 0.00259• UK 0.01017 0.01001 0.00795 0.00724 0.00722 0.00509 0.00618• France 0.00678 0.00773 0.0857 0.00684 0.00840 0.00993 0.00988
Some Implications of Changing Patterns of Mineral Consumption By W. David Menzie, John H. DeYoung, Jr., and Walter G. Steblez, USGS (2000)
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Steel ConsumptionSteel Consumption
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Not All Minerals Are The SameNot All Minerals Are The Same
Over 90 minerals are commonly producedOver 90 minerals are commonly produced. They vary enormously in:
• Abundance• Abundance• What substitutes there are for them• The environmental impacts of their
production• How much employment they generate
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Drivers of per capita Mineral Consumption
Mineral consumption low in lesser-developedMineral consumption low in lesser-developed countries with low income levelsConsumption increases very rapidly asConsumption increases very rapidly as countries begin to industrialize and incomes pass threshold levelpass threshold level.Per capita mineral consumption stabilizes
at higher levels when countries begin to develop the service and information psectors of their economies.
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Physical Availability of Minerals
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Physical Availability of MineralsPhysical Availability of MineralsMinerals are only physically available where we find themthem- Lack of portability creates problems
Increasing consumption depletes natural capital onIncreasing consumption depletes natural capital on which world economy is based– Increase supply via recycling/substitutionIncrease supply via recycling/substitution– Increase size of mineral reserves
• New discoveries• New technologies• Price cues• Regulatory cuesg y
– National concerns (re: strategic minerals and energy security)
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Replacing ReservesReplacing Reserves
Example: CopperExample: Copper• 1.1 billion tons of copper must be added to
reserves to meet projected copper consumptionreserves to meet projected copper consumption at present recycling rates
• Maintaining current reserve level will require more than 3 times the amount of copper in the 5 largest deposits currently known5 largest deposits currently known
• Big discoveries big problemsBig discoveries, big problems (e.g., Oyu Tolgoi, Mongolia)
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Replacing Reserves (cont )Replacing Reserves (cont.)Sufficient supplies of copper exist to meet needs of developing countriesHowever, production of these resources will , pdepend upon – adequate levels of mineral exploration (where q p (
more and more land is being removed from the resource base)
– development of new technologies for mineral discovery and production
– social and legal environments that allow for mineral exploration and production
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Exploration Requires Land and Community Acceptance
CommunityCommunity
MinerMiner
How communities felt aboutHow communities felt aboutUranium, ca. 1954
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Competition For LandCompetition For Land
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Competition for LandCompetition for LandCompeting Land Uses
Agriculture– Agriculture– Urban Development– Retaining Land in State of Nature: Preserving Rare or eta g a d State o Natu e: ese v g a e o
Important Ecosystems– Tourism– Recreational Use
Relative economic value of competing uses– Effect on land prices, making mining
uneconomicThus mining disproportionately affects– Thus, mining disproportionately affects poor/rural people
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Competition for Land (cont )Competition for Land (cont.)
Comparatively High Impact of Mining on LandComparatively High Impact of Mining on Land– Current Land Uses
Future Land Uses– Future Land Uses– Dislocation of Indigenous Peoples and othersS i l i i L d C i /R l iSocial issues in Land Compensation/Relocation– Defects in land title systems– Effect of corruption/rent-seeking/
disconnect between national and local interests
– Perceived fairness of compensation
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Competition for LandCompetition for Land
From Frontier SettlementsFrom Frontier Settlements. . .
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Competition for LandCompetition for Land
Is skiing more important
. . . To Ski Areas
-Is skiing more important than mining?-In the Gunnison Valley?-In the United States?-To the poor in developing countries?countries?
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Competition for LandCompetition for Land
• “What Every Westerner Should Know AboutWhat Every Westerner Should Know About Energy” by Patricia Nelson Limerick, et al., Center for the American West (2003)– “Aren’t there any unloved and unlovely places left?”
–Argues for reconciliation among competing interests
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Access for Expansion & Exploration: the “Roadless Rule”
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Competition For EnergyCompetition For Energy
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Competition for EnergyCompetition for EnergyMining is energy-intensive.g gy– Drilling/digging; crushing, milling, refining;
pumping out water; transport, etc.Competitors for energy include urban users w/– Competitors for energy include urban users w/ rising standards of living, infrastructure building and other industry
E t b t 5% f th l f llEnergy represents about 5% of the value of all mining products. R&D projects include technologiesR&D projects include technologies for energy-efficient mining and processing of coal, metals, andprocessing of coal, metals, and industrial minerals.
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Energy Availability per CapitaEnergy Availability per Capita
Cumulative Population (Millions)
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Fuel PricesFuel Prices
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Competition For WaterCompetition For Water
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Competition for WaterCompetition for WaterMining is water-intensiveg– Dust control– Reduce fire hazard: ex.: underground coal miningg g– Extracting ore; processing– Transport: mineral slurriesTransport: mineral slurriesCompeting Uses
Agriculture– Agriculture– In-stream flows
U b /i d t i l– Urban/industrial uses – Tourism/recreation
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Water: The Black Eye of MiningEffect on water supply of existing comm nitiescommunitiesUse of pristine water where reclaimed water
ld ffiwould sufficeLong-term effects of mining– Pollution of surface water
• Acid mine drainage• History of catastrophic spills
– Pollution of groundwater– Altering course of rivers;
destroying ecosystems
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Technology DevelopmentTechnology Development
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Improved TechnologyImproved Technology
More efficient productionMore efficient production– Beneficial effects
• Expand supply: now feasible to mine lower-grade ore• Expand supply: now feasible to mine lower-grade ore• Energy efficiency• Possible to minimize ground disturbanceg
– Negative effects• More mining of marginal deposits: increased impactg g p p
on land, water, and local communities• Consumptive deep water production
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Technology ExamplesTechnology Examples
Gold – Bulk heap leaching (1960’s)Gold Bulk heap leaching (1960 s)Copper
S l t t ti / l t i i th d– Solvent-extraction/electro-winning method– low-cost production of copper from waste and raw
dore dumpsUranium– In situ Recovery – Production of marginal resource without milling
and tailings– Potential water impacts
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Technology IssuesTechnology Issues
Socio Economic ImpactsSocio-Economic Impacts– Reduced need for manpower/local hiring
I d k f t– Increased worker safety
R&D Funding Issues– Low profit margin of mining companies limits
industry R&D– Government technology programs
• Corporate welfare?• Is the public getting its money’s worth?
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Biosphere’s Capacity To Absorb Mining Waste Streams
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Carrying Capacity of BiosphereCarrying Capacity of Biosphere
Capacity to absorb waste streamsCapacity to absorb waste streams– Mining generates high concentrations of waste and
effluents: long-term waste management and acideffluents: long term waste management and acid mine drainage issues
– Impacts on land, surface water and groundwater,Impacts on land, surface water and groundwater, air, forest, biodiversity
Legacy of historic mining sitesLegacy of historic mining sites
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Improving Capacity of BiosphereImproving Capacity of Biosphere
Reduce waste streamsReduce waste streams– New technologies to mine, process, transport
Life cycle pollution management– Life-cycle pollution management– Shift from high-polluting minerals R d iReduce energy consumption– Mining, processing, transport– New sources of energy– Energy-efficient products with mineral
components
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Improving Capacity of BiosphereImproving Capacity of Biosphere
Land reclamation & post-mining monitoringLand reclamation & post-mining monitoring– Improve predictive abilities for water impacts
Funding– Funding– EnforcementR d i iReduce mining– Recycling– Substitution– Place ecologically sensitive areas
off limits (exploration vs. mining)
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Legal EnvironmentLegal Environment
Voluntary corporate codesVoluntary corporate codes Lender policies
i lInternational Law– Transboundary impacts– Environmental human rights– Rights of indigenous peoplesClimate Change regimes: national & internationalnational & international
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Legal En ironment (cont )Legal Environment (cont.)
Host country regimes – Evolving regulatory infrastructure and capacity – Gradual priority shift: development--environment Increasing role of NGOs
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Improved Models for ActionImproved Models for Action
Model mining agreements
Model community participation projects
Industry Best PracticesIndustry Best Practices
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The Research AgendaThe Research Agenda
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Eight Challenges: Examples are hEverywhere
• Molybdenum under Mt Emmons ColoradoMolybdenum under Mt. Emmons, Colorado
• Rare Earths at Mountain Pass, California
C / ld d i k• Copper/gold deposits at Tampakan, Philippines
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Needed Research• There may be no more important issues for the future of minerals development than community acceptance, the “social license to operate.” Yet while there is an enormous amount of propaganda out there on all sides there is almost no rigorousthere on all sides, there is almost no rigorous research that shows the impacts on communities:– When they go from a pre‐mining state to the potentiallyWhen they go from a pre mining state to the potentially disruptive construction phase
– When they move from the large scale construction phase to a more steady state of production
– When the mine closes and the community is left without an activity that is central to the local economyan activity that is central to the local economy.
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Needed ResearchNeeded ResearchThere is very little attempt to understand in a rigorous way the risk‐benefit calculation for communities
• What costs are going to be externalized onto the community?• What will be the direct and indirect benefits?• What will be the direct and indirect benefits?• What benefits will be externalized?• What risks will the community be asked to run?• Above all, does the community have any kind of say over the
outcome? If so, what?• Can community needs be balanced with tenure systems and• Can community needs be balanced with tenure systems and
commercial needs and expectations to attract mining investment in the first place?
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Needed ResearchCommunity concerns about the distribution of the benefits, risks, and impacts of
large mining projects have led to considerable opposition to mine development in many parts of the world.
Greater access to information and communications technology, more open societies, greater access to legal remedies and other factors, not all of which have been identified, have given communities more leverage, and have in rich and poor countries alike prevented projects from going forwardgoing forward.
Are there things that can be done to improve the balance of risks, benefits, opportunities and impacts so that communities will accept and want these projects when society needs them?society needs them?
To what extent is the problem simply a function of defects in our systems of consultation and community engagement?
Are these facilities so important that we need legal provisions to facilitate development? Is that politically viable in a democratic context?
1. Where are the gaps in our knowledge?g p g2. What research do we know of that is relevant to this problem?3. What kind of research approaches make sense?4. Who can undertake this kind of work?
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Questions?Questions?Luke Danielson, Principle
Sustainable Development Strategies GroupSustainable Development Strategies Group108 W. Tomichi Avenue, Suite D
Gunnison, Colorado 80123Phone: (970) 641-4605( )
Jim Cress, PartnerHolme Roberts & Owen LLP
1700 Lincoln Street, Suite 4100Denver Colorado 80203 4541Denver, Colorado 80203-4541
Phone: (303) [email protected]
www.hro.com
Special thanks to SDSG intern Kimberly Jackson, 3rd year student at DU law school, for her assistance with this presentation