fudan presentation on the euro buti shangha...

欧元的历史欧元的历史欧元的历史欧元的历史、、、、挑战及前景挑战及前景挑战及前景挑战及前景History of the euro, current challenges History of the euro, current challenges

and the road aheadand the road ahead

马科马科马科马科·布提布提布提布提欧洲委员会经济金融事务总司欧洲委员会经济金融事务总司欧洲委员会经济金融事务总司欧洲委员会经济金融事务总司总司长总司长总司长总司长

Marco ButiDirector General for Economic and Financial Affairs

European Commission

Fudan University, 15 October 2012

European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs Delegation of the European Union to ChinaDelegation of the European Union to China

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讲座提纲讲座提纲讲座提纲讲座提纲Outline of Presentation

1. 1. 历史地看欧元历史地看欧元历史地看欧元历史地看欧元：：：：背景及第一个十年背景及第一个十年背景及第一个十年背景及第一个十年历史地看欧元历史地看欧元历史地看欧元历史地看欧元：：：：背景及第一个十年背景及第一个十年背景及第一个十年背景及第一个十年

Historical perspective on the euro Historical perspective on the euro –– background background and first ten years and first ten years

2. 2. 欧债危机及前景欧债危机及前景欧债危机及前景欧债危机及前景欧债危机及前景欧债危机及前景欧债危机及前景欧债危机及前景

The euro crisis and the road ahead The euro crisis and the road ahead


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第一部分第一部分第一部分第一部分Part 1

历史地看欧元历史地看欧元历史地看欧元历史地看欧元Historical perspective on the euro


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二战后重建欧洲二战后重建欧洲二战后重建欧洲二战后重建欧洲Rebuilding Europe after World War II


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今日欧盟今日欧盟今日欧盟今日欧盟European Union (EU) today

27 countries

500 million people

~ 20% of world GDP


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可比数据可比数据可比数据可比数据Comparative data

2010(11) EU 27 Euro Area USA China

Population (millions)

502 332 312 1340

GDP p.c.(thousands of

EUR in PPS)

24 27 38 5

Share of world GDP (%)

20.7 14.8 19.5 13.6

Exports, G&S

(% of GDP)15.5 22.7 12.5 26.4

Imports, G&S

(% of GDP)15.9 22.0 15.9 21.8

Share of world trade (%)

16.4 15.7 13.8 12.3

7777777777777777

欧盟和中国紧密联系欧盟和中国紧密联系欧盟和中国紧密联系欧盟和中国紧密联系The EU and China are closely interlinked

�� The EU and China are two of the largest The EU and China are two of the largest traders in the world traders in the world –– the EU is Chinathe EU is China’’s largest export s largest export marketmarket

�� The euro benefits Chinese consumers and The euro benefits Chinese consumers and enterprises alike enterprises alike

�� China invests in euroChina invests in euro--denominated financial denominated financial assets to diversify the composition of its assets to diversify the composition of its foreign exchange reserves (foreign exchange reserves (away from US dollar away from US dollar

dominancedominance))


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为何要创建欧元区为何要创建欧元区为何要创建欧元区为何要创建欧元区？？？？Why create the euro area?

�� Economic and monetary union (EMU) as Economic and monetary union (EMU) as an important stage in the process of an important stage in the process of economic integration economic integration

Customs union (1968)

Single market (1993)

Economic and Monetary Union (1999)

Full economic integration … towards political integration



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今日欧元区今日欧元区今日欧元区今日欧元区Euro Area (EA) today

17 member 17 member countries: countries: Belgium, Germany, Estonia, Belgium, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Cyprus, France, Italy, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Austria, Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia & Finland& Finland

2 opt2 opt--outs: outs: Denmark Denmark and the United Kingdomand the United Kingdom

8 derogations: 8 derogations: countries not yet fulfilling countries not yet fulfilling the membership criteriathe membership criteria


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经济与货币联盟的预期益处经济与货币联盟的预期益处经济与货币联盟的预期益处经济与货币联盟的预期益处Expected benefits of EMU

�� Elimination of exchange costs and Elimination of exchange costs and currency fluctuationscurrency fluctuations

�� Price transparency and comparabilityPrice transparency and comparability

�� Price stability and low interest ratesPrice stability and low interest rates

�� Major international currencyMajor international currency

�� Building a European identityBuilding a European identity


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经济与货币联盟的预期代价经济与货币联盟的预期代价经济与货币联盟的预期代价经济与货币联盟的预期代价Expected costs of EMU

�� Costs of changeover to new currency Costs of changeover to new currency –– the eurothe euro

�� Loss of exchange rate and interest Loss of exchange rate and interest rate as policy toolsrate as policy tools


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第一个十年取得的成绩第一个十年取得的成绩第一个十年取得的成绩第一个十年取得的成绩Successes in the first decade

�� Price stabilityPrice stability

�� JobJob--rich growth rich growth

�� Increased financial market integrationIncreased financial market integration

�� Sound public financesSound public finances

�� Role of the euro as an international Role of the euro as an international currencycurrency


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通胀率趋同通胀率趋同通胀率趋同通胀率趋同Inflation convergence

Euro-area inflation(annual average per decade)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000


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金融市场金融市场金融市场金融市场一体化一体化一体化一体化Financial market integration

10-year yield spreads against the German bund

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

1990

Q1

1991

Q1

1992

Q1

1993

Q1

1994

Q1

1995

Q1

1996

Q1

1997

Q1

1998

Q1

1999

Q1

2000

Q1

2001

Q1

2002

Q1

2003

Q1

2004

Q1

2005

Q1

2006

Q1

2007

Q1

2008

Q1

ppsBelgium

Ireland

Greece

Spain

France

Italy

Netherlands

Austria

Portugal

Finland


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第二部分第二部分第二部分第二部分Part 2

欧债危机及前景欧债危机及前景欧债危机及前景欧债危机及前景欧债危机及前景欧债危机及前景欧债危机及前景欧债危机及前景

��原因原因原因原因原因原因原因原因

��对策对策对策对策对策对策对策对策

The euro crisis and the road ahead The euro crisis and the road ahead �� CausesCauses�� ResponseResponse


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主权债务危机的导火索主权债务危机的导火索主权债务危机的导火索主权债务危机的导火索主权债务危机的导火索主权债务危机的导火索主权债务危机的导火索主权债务危机的导火索Triggers of the sovereignTriggers of the sovereign--debt debt

crisiscrisisThe crisis originated in the US. The financial, banking and economic crisis resulted in:

Banking and financial sector problems, incl.:

• Financial market volatility • Risk aversion, capital flight• Rating downgrades• High borrowing costs• Contagion - domino effect- herd behaviour• Need for recapitalisation

Weaker growth prospects

Increasing fiscal imbalances

Risk reassessments and changing risk perception


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引发欧元区主权债务危机的问题引发欧元区主权债务危机的问题引发欧元区主权债务危机的问题引发欧元区主权债务危机的问题引发欧元区主权债务危机的问题引发欧元区主权债务危机的问题引发欧元区主权债务危机的问题引发欧元区主权债务危机的问题Problems underlying EAProblems underlying EA‘‘s s

sovereignsovereign--debt crisisdebt crisis

� EA internal institutional and governance weaknesses– Incomplete EMU – Insufficient firewalls– Surveillance and enforcement– Structural flaws in the financial sector

� EA internal imbalances – Competitiveness and productivity imbalances


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出现不平衡出现不平衡出现不平衡出现不平衡出现不平衡出现不平衡出现不平衡出现不平衡Emergence of imbalancesEmergence of imbalances


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欧盟欧盟欧盟欧盟/欧元区面临的主要政策挑战欧元区面临的主要政策挑战欧元区面临的主要政策挑战欧元区面临的主要政策挑战：：：：结束反向经济恶性循结束反向经济恶性循结束反向经济恶性循结束反向经济恶性循环环环环

Main policy challenge facing the EU/EA:

Breaking the negative feedback loop

Economic growth Sovereign debt

Financial stability

综合危机应对策略综合危机应对策略综合危机应对策略综合危机应对策略

Comprehensive crisis response strategy

• Provide decisive response to challenges related to vulnerable countries

• Creating EA/EU financial safety nets (firewalls): European Stability Mechanism (EUR 500 bn.)/ECB unconventional measures

• Enhance growth through structural reforms• Provide robust and integrated economic governance:

moving to a genuine Economic and Monetary Union

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脆弱国家的进展脆弱国家的进展脆弱国家的进展脆弱国家的进展

Progress in vulnerable countries

� Ireland has been able to re-access the markets earlier than envisaged.

� Portugal records stronger-than-expected export growth, which is helping to offset weaker domestic demand.

� Greece has achieved more than is often recognised in terms of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms.

� Spain and Italy : There is some regain of interest among international investors to buy bonds. Especially OMT has contributed to a renewed interest by international investors.

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外部再平衡正取得进展外部再平衡正取得进展外部再平衡正取得进展外部再平衡正取得进展External rebalancing is moving on

Current account developments (in % of GDP), euro area

Source: Commission services’ 2012 Spring Forecast

4,44,44,85,14,5

5,3

7,06,3

5,15,2

3,03,3

1,4

0,40,3

0,3

0,9

0,50,3

-1,6-2,4

-3,4-3,7-3,6

-5,1-4,3

-3,8-3,0

-2,0-1,6

-1,3-1,0-1,1

0,41,01,81,20,8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12* 13*

"Surplus countries" "Deficit countries" Euro area

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从碎片化到一体化从碎片化到一体化从碎片化到一体化从碎片化到一体化：：：：走向走向走向走向真正的经济与货币联盟真正的经济与货币联盟真正的经济与货币联盟真正的经济与货币联盟 (EMU)From fragmentation to integration:

moving towards genuine Economic and Monetary Union (EMU)

1. Banking union– Common EU supervisor for European banks (proposal p ublished

by European Commission on 12 September)– To be considered: Common deposit insurance – To be considered: EU bank resolution mechanism

2. Fiscal union: integrated budgetary structure

3. Economic union– Further development of system for coordination econ omic policies

4. Political union: legitimacy and accountability

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危机危机危机危机–既是挑战既是挑战既是挑战既是挑战也是机遇也是机遇也是机遇也是机遇The crisis – both a challenge and an opportunity

�� Problems clearly identified within the first decade of the EAProblems clearly identified within the first decade of the EA–– growing macroeconomic imbalancesgrowing macroeconomic imbalances–– lack of ambition on fiscal consolidation and debt reductionlack of ambition on fiscal consolidation and debt reduction–– financial sector increasingly susceptible to shocksfinancial sector increasingly susceptible to shocks

�� Action was taken by the Member States and the EUAction was taken by the Member States and the EU–– strengthening financial market supervision strengthening financial market supervision –– national austerity packages and reforms to enhance competitivenenational austerity packages and reforms to enhance competitivenessss–– strengthening the Stability and Growth Pactstrengthening the Stability and Growth Pact–– new procedure to identify and tackle emerging macroeconomic imbanew procedure to identify and tackle emerging macroeconomic imbalanceslances

�� Through adjustment, reform and better governanceThrough adjustment, reform and better governance–– European economic and monetary union will function betterEuropean economic and monetary union will function better–– Europe will play its role in the international monetary system aEurope will play its role in the international monetary system and in shaping nd in shaping

globalisationglobalisation

We are in all this together: We are in all this together: "If you want to go fast, go "If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together."alone. If you want to go far, go together."



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ec.europa.eu/dgs/economy_finance/index_en.htmec.europa.eu/dgs/economy_finance/index_en.htmecb.europa.euecb.europa.eu

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