frozen food in western europe - wabel.com - 16.03... · germany uk france italy spain total frozen...

FROZEN FOOD IN WESTERN EUROPE - KEY TRENDS,

DRIVERS AND PROSPECTS

IVAN KORIC RESEARCH ANALYST 16 MARCH 2016

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KEY INDUSTRY FACTS

THE STATE OF FROZEN FOOD IN WESTERN EUROPE

GROWTH DRIVERS - INNOVATIONS

PROSPECTS - OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS

KEY TAKEAWAYS

©EuromonitorInterna.onal

4

Key frozen foods facts in Western Europe KEYINDUSTRYFACTS

€42 bn retail value sales (2015)

€86 per capita spending (2015)

+2% retail value CAGR

(2005-2015)

KEY INDUSTRY FACTS




KEY TAKEAWAYS


6

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Big Five Markets: Retail Value Sales Growth 2011-2015

Germany UK France Italy Spain Western Europe

Solid performance of frozen food in Western Europe THE STATE OF FROZEN FOOD IN WESTERN EUROPE

% y

-o-y

gro

wth


7

21%

20%

13% 12%

6%

28%

Proportion of Western European Retail Value Sales of Big Five Markets (DE, ES, FR, IT, UK) 2015

Germany

UK

France

Italy

Spain

Others

Germany and UK are largest frozen food markets in Western Europe THE STATE OF FROZEN FOOD IN WESTERN EUROPE


8

8.8 8.6

5.5 5.0

2.5

1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Retail Value Sales (€ billion) 2015 Retail Value Growth 2014-2015

Turkey grows fastest in 2015 THE STATE OF FROZEN FOOD IN WESTERN EUROPE

% y

-o-y

gro

wth

201

4-20

15

€ bi

llion


9

Western European markets have a higher level of saturation


€109 €133

€54

€85 €82

Per capita spending (€) on frozen packaged food Western Europe vs Eastern Europe 2015

€241

€20 €34

€19 €17

€17

€18

€169


10

127

100

82 81

54

133

109

85 82

54

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

UK Germany France Italy Spain

Per Capita Spending (€) for Big Five Markets (DE, ES, FR, IT, UK) 2010/2015

2010 2015

Per capita spending in largest European markets is still rising

THE STATE OF FROZEN FOOD IN WESTERN EUROPE Pe

r cap

ita s

pend

ing

(€)


11

-3.0%

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Frozen Food Total Volume Sales 2015

Germany UK France Italy Spain Western Europe

Volume sales stagnating in Western Europe in 2015 THE STATE OF FROZEN FOOD IN WESTERN EUROPE

Y-o-

y gr

owth


12

5.8

3.3

1.1 1.0 0.98 0.9 0.8 -0.9

1.4

0.1 0

0.5 0.4

1.6

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Frozen Fruit and

Vegetables

Ice Cream and Frozen

Desserts

Frozen Processed

Meat

Frozen Ready Meals

Frozen Baked Goods

Frozen Processed Seafood

Frozen Pizza

Western Europe Frozen Processed Food Total Volume Sales 2015

Total Volume Sales (million tonnes) Total Volume Growth 2014-2015

Frozen fruit and vegetables declines the most

THE STATE OF FROZEN FOOD IN WESTERN EUROPE M

illio

n to

nnes

% y

-o-y

gro

wth

201

4-20

15

KEY INDUSTRY FACTS




KEY TAKEAWAYS


14

Changing social and demographic factors • Busy lifestyles, increase in working women •  Increasing single households • Search for convenience, less time for cooking

Retail landscape • Number of small supermarkets/discounters in urban areas • Digitalisation of retail and internet shopping • Range of frozen processed food is increasing

Health and wellness • Organic and natural food • Fresh cooked food • Premiumisation

Major trends influencing frozen food GROWTH DRIVERS - INNOVATIONS


15

Seasonality/limited editions

Premiumisation/packaging

Health and wellness/free-from

Snacking trend/indulgence

Vegetarian/vegan

Innovations as a growth driver in a saturated WE frozen food market



16

Frozen food

Chilled food

Chilled food challenges frozen food


VS


17

9

90

56

7 84

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Germany UK France Italy Spain

Frozen Pizza vs Chilled Pizza 2015

Frozen Pizza Chilled Pizza

Frozen pizza total volume sales still much higher overall

GROWTH DRIVERS - INNOVATIONS To

tal v

olum

e sa

les

(‘000

tonn

es)


18

Wagner Pizza -addressing the food intolerance issue

Gluten-free pizzas

Dr. Oetker - addressing vegetarian and vegan trends

Vegetarian/vegan

Addressing snack- orientated male consumers

Pizzaburger Takeaway pizzas

Dr. Oetker and Nestlé Wagner expand their product portfolios GROWTH DRIVERS - INNOVATIONS

Addressing consumers who prefer takeaway pizzas


19

29.1%

[WERT] [WERT]

6.0%

17.4%

Western Europe Frozen Pizza Retail Value Shares 2015

Dr.Oetker Nestlé Wagner Private Label Orkla Others

Dr. Oetker leads frozen pizza in Western Europe GROWTH DRIVERS - INNOVATION


20

302

31

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

UK Germany

Germany and the UK: Frozen Ready Meals vs Chilled Ready Meals by Total Volume Sales 2015

Frozen Ready Meals Chilled Ready Meals

Frozen ready meals most popular in Germany - British prefer chilled ready meals

GROWTH DRIVERS - INNOVATIONS To

tal v

olum

e sa

les

(‘000

tonn

es)


21

Ready meals innovations - Cook Trading Ltd, Frosta, Jim Beam private label


Vegetarian ready meal - emphasis put on free-from guarantee

Jim Beam - co-branding

Premium frozen ready meal innovation

Bar food – snacking trend


22

Rewe- Premium

Tesco- Health and Wellness

40%

13% 7% 3% 2%

35%

Frozen Ready Meals Company Retail Value Share 2015

Private Label Nomad Foods

Frosta AG Weight Watchers

Nestlé Others

Private label remains strong and innovative GROWTH DRIVERS - INNOVATIONS


23

209.9

103.3

73.8

6.2

17.2

1.9%

1.1%

0.1% 0.1%

2.0%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0


Big Five Markets: Total Volume Sales 2015 and Value Growth 2014-2015

Ice Cream Frozen Desserts Volume growth 2014-2015

Frozen desserts and ice cream GROWTH DRIVERS - INNOVATIONS

Tota

l vol

ume

sale

s (‘

00

0 to

nnes

)

% y

-o-y

gro

wth

201

4-20

15


24

Frozen desserts - innovation trends GROWTH DRIVERS - INNOVATIONS

Lactose-free ice cream

Premium - Coppenrath

& Wiese

Health and wellness aspect


25

First frozen smoothie

New kind of frozen dessert

Dairy-free/gluten-free/

vegan Multi-usage

product

Frozen smoothies GROWTH DRIVERS - INNOVATIONS

KEY INDUSTRY FACTS




KEY TAKEAWAYS


27

8.8 8.6

5.5 5.0

2.5

8.9 8.8

5.6 5.1

2.5

0.3%

0.5%

0.3% 0.4%

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0


Total Frozen Food Value Sales by Country 2015/2020 and CAGR 2015-2020

Value Size 2015 Value size 2020 CAGR 2015-2020

UK has largest absolute growth forecast among big five

PROSPECTS - OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS €

billi

on

CA

GR

201

5-20

20


28

Innovations Packaging Premiumisation Health and wellness Convenience

Intensifying competition Fresh food trend Millennials generation

Opp

ortu

nitie

s C

hallenges Opportunities and challenges for future growth PROSPECTS - OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS


29

Millennials as potential threat to frozen food industry PROSPECTS - OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS

Demanding consumers

Cooking and eating out

Trendy lifestyles/ digital affinity


30

Top trends expected to drive product innovations PROSPECTS - OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS

From clean to clear label

Transparency

Free-from

Kosher/halal

Convenience for foodies

Premium

Gourmet

Snacking

Health aspects

Vegetarian/vegan

Protein

Organic

KEY INDUSTRY FACTS




KEY TAKEAWAYS


32

Solid performance over the last five years •  Germany grows

above WE average •  Turkey grows fastest •  Frozen vegetables

declined the most

Innovations are driving growth •  Cooking and eating

out trends are threats to frozen food

•  Chilled food to further challenge frozen food

Positive outlook for frozen food •  Busy lifestyles and

search for convenience to fuel growth

•  UK to grow fastest of big five

•  Challenges will persist

Key takeaways: Frozen food in Western Europe KEY TAKEAWAYS

THANK YOU FOR LISTENING Ivan Koric Research Analyst [email protected]

@euromonitor

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frozen food in western europe - wabel.com - 16.03... · germany uk france italy spain total frozen...

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