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FREEMAN HURRICANE DAMAGE POTENTIAL SCALE GULF OF MEXICO HURRICANES PAST – PRESENT – FUTURE PUG 2009 February 2009 Jill F. Hasling , President Ben Maloney and Maureen Maiuri Certified Consulting Meteorologist Weather Research Center 5104 Caroline St. Houston, Texas 77004 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • FREEMAN HURRICANE DAMAGE POTENTIAL SCALE GULF OF MEXICO HURRICANESPAST PRESENT FUTURE

    PUG 2009February 2009Jill F. Hasling, PresidentBen Maloney and Maureen MaiuriCertified Consulting MeteorologistWeather Research Center5104 Caroline St. Houston, Texas 77004 www.wxresearch.com

  • Atlantic Basin Category 5 Hurricanes31 Category 5 Hurricanes have occurred since 1900Lowest Pressure Hurricane Wilma 2005 - 882 mbsHighest maximum sustained winds Hurricane Allen 1980 - 165 KnotsMost Category 5 Hurricanes per season2005 (Four) Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma2007 (Two) Dean and Felix1961 (Two) Carla and Hattie1960 (Two) Donna and Ethel

  • GULF OF MEXICO HURRICANES CAT 5

  • Hurricane Strikes on the United States Mainland 1851-2007

    Category Strikes 5 34 183 75 2 73 1 111TOTAL 280Major 96Category 3 or higher at landfall

  • Hurricane Ike September 2008

  • Hurricane IkeJust prior to landfall: Minimum central pressure was 952 mbsMaximum sustained winds were 95 knots gusting to 115 knotsRadius of Hurricane force winds was 110 nmRadius of Tropical Storm force winds was 240 nm

    A pressure of 952 mbs usually indicates sustained winds of 108 knots.

  • Size Matters!

  • Size of the windfield can change during the life of a hurricane. The windfield of Rita expanded as the storm weakened from a Category 5 hurricane.

  • Harris and Knox [1947] In 100 feet of water, waves will probably seldom if ever, exceed 20 feet in height. Decks thus should be placed 20 feet above the still water line.1946-1948 The first generation of fixed platforms placed decks from 20 to 40 feet above the mean level of the Gulf.In the late 40s, Munk recommended a deck height of 32 feet with the expected maximum wave height of about 25 feet. October 1949 Freeport Hurricane severely damaged a platform with 40 foot waves. During the 1949 Freeport Hurricane, a platform with a 26 foot deck suffered damages while a platform with a 33 foot deck showed no damage.

  • Observations from 1947 to 1952 suggested that the key problem was to keep the mammoth waves from cresting on the deck.1956 September Hurricane Flossie 110 mph winds and 15 to 20 feet waves. Numerous tenders broke their moorings. Damaged risers.1957 June Hurricane Audrey One mobile drilling rig sank. Four tenders suffered damages when their moorings were broken. 1957 September Hurricane Bertha Moved inland near Cameron. One drilling tender sunk and 1 tender run aground. More than 1,000 platforms had been built in the Gulf by the mid 60s.

  • Until 1964, no major hurricanes moved over the areas of high concentrations of offshore operations. Three hurricanes Hilda (1964), Betsy (1965) and Camille (1969) demonstrated that the risks presented by major hurricanes was gravely underestimated.

  • Hurricane Hilda 1964 100 year Storm13 platforms destroyed and 5 more damaged beyond repair Hurricane Betsy 1965 100 Year Storm8 platforms destroyed and damaged others Hurricane Camille 1969 400 year Storm Shell measured waves of 70 to 75 feet

  • Central Pressure/Wind Relationship 960 mbs Sustained winds of 100 knots 115 mph Cat 3 945 mbs Sustained winds of 115 knots 132 mph Cat 4 931 mbs Sustained winds of 128 knots 147 mph Cat 4 922 mbs Sustained winds of 135 knots 155 mph Cat 4 914 mbs Sustained winds of 142 knots 163 mph Cat 5

  • NOTABLE CATEGORY 5 GOM LEASE HURRICANES165 kts Hurricane Camille 1969 155 ktsHurricane Allen 1980155 ktsHurricane Rita2005150 ktsHurricane Carla 1961150 ktsHurricane Katrina2005140 ktsHurricane Beulah1967140 ktsHurricane Ethel1960135 ktsHurricane Betsy1965

  • WRC Meteorologists Computed the Maximum sustained windfields for some of hurricanes over the GOM Leases The windfields were then plotted using GIS Software

  • In order to develop a Hurricane Damage Potential Scale, the past hurricane tracks were plotted with the offshore properties.The track of the 1900 Hurricane that devastated Galveston seems to be the one that would expose the most offshore properties for various hurricanes.

  • 1900 Hurricane with Platforms

  • The result of this research is the development of The Freeman Hurricane Damage Potential Scale [Freeman - HDP Scale]

  • The Freeman Hurricane Damage Potential Scale is based on:

    Maximum Sustained Wind

  • The Freeman Hurricane Damage Potential Scale is based on:

    Maximum Sustained WindRadius of Hurricane Force Winds

  • The Freeman Hurricane Damage Potential Scale is based on:

    Maximum Sustained WindRadius of Hurricane Force WindsCentral Pressure

  • The Freeman Hurricane Damage Potential Scale is based on:

    Maximum Sustained WindRadius of Hurricane Force WindsCentral PressureArea of Significant Wave > 34 Feet

  • The Freeman Hurricane Damage Potential Scale is based on:

    Maximum Sustained WindRadius of Hurricane Force WindsCentral PressureArea of Significant Wave > 34 FeetHurricane Track

  • The Freeman Hurricane Damage Potential Scale is based on:

    Maximum Sustained WindRadius of Hurricane Force WindsCentral PressureArea of Significant Wave > 34 FeetHurricane TrackHurricane Speed

  • The Freeman Hurricane Damage Potential Scale is based on:

    Maximum Sustained WindRadius of Hurricane Force WindsCentral PressureArea of Significant Wave > 34 FeetHurricane TrackHurricane SpeedDuration of Hurricane Force Winds

  • The Freeman Hurricane Damage Potential Scale is based on:

    Maximum Sustained WindRadius of Hurricane Force WindsCentral PressureArea of Significant Wave > 34 FeetHurricane TrackHurricane SpeedDuration of Hurricane Force WindsExposed Offshore Properties

  • Freeman Hurricane Damage Potential Scalewww.wxresearch.com

    R6430>=45>=60>=80Saffir/Simpson100045200055300155401255512355

    Freeman Hurricane Damage Potential Scale12345HPD Percent2%4%6%8%10%

  • www.wxresearch.com

    PAST STORMSSaffir Simpson ScaleFreeman Hurricane Damage Potential Scale

    Ike 200825Gustav 200831Dolly 200820Rita 200545Katrina 200555Ivan 200445Lili 200231Georges 199820Andrew 199245Frederic 197945Carmen 197442Camille 196951Betsy 196535Hilda 196453Carla 196155Audrey 195742

  • www.wxresearch.com

    DRAFT FOR PAST STORMSCATSizeActual Exposed waves >34 feetEstimated Destroyed or Damaged

    Ike 2008251135114Gustav 20083196719Dolly 200820 0Rita 2005451055106Katrina 20055569770Ivan 20044526726.7Lili 2002314008Georges 19982000Andrew 19924297097Frederic 197945Carmen 197442Camille 196951Betsy 196535Hilda 196453Carla 196155Audrey 195742

  • This is a preliminary scale and work continues on finding the factors that best define the damage potential factors and the exposure to offshore properties.

  • Weather Research CenterHouston, Texas www.wxresearch.comwrc@wxresearch.org

    *Thank you for having me here today. Weather Research Center has been using GIS over the past few years to forecast hurricanes in real time as well as study them in detail to better understand the winds and the waves. GIS gives the meteorologist the ability to easily view the tracks of past hurricanes. This is a plot of all the known Category 3 or stronger hurricanes. Notice that the tracks in the eastern pacific start in 1951. Prior to satellite we did not realize that the eastern Pacific had as many hurricanes as the Atlantic.*WRC meteorologists used GIS to plot all of the known Category 5 hurricanes. *Only 3 category 5 hurricanes have made landfall somewhere on the US coast, 1935, 1969 Hurricane Camille and 1992 Hurricane Andrew. However there have been 38 Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic since 1900. For example, Hurricane Carla in 1961 was a Category 5 hurricane and weakened to a Category 4 hurricane before making landfall.

    **Here are the known Category 5 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico.The number of hurricanes which have made landfall in the US*WRC meteorologist used GIS to forecast the expected winds and waves in the hurricane as it moved over the Gulf of Mexico oil leases.*Here is the track of Hurricane Ike with the satellite images.*Just prior to landfallIkes central pressure was 952 mbs.

    Maximum sustained winds were 95 knots gusting to 115 knots

    Radius of hurricane force winds extended out 110 n mi to the right of storm track

    Radius of tropical storm force winds extended out 240 n mi to the right of the storm track.*Satellite showing the size of Ike*Infrared satellite*This graphs shows the hurricane force winds of Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Gustav. The yellow arrows indicate the maximum sustained winds greater than 63 knots which are the Category 1 winds. The orange indicated the maximum sustained winds of 83 knots to 95 knots which are the Category 2 winds.*This graph shows the significant waves during Ike and Gustav. Notice how much large Ike was than Gustav. Over ______thousand offshore platforms were exposed to significant wave greater than 34 feet. *Here is another plot generated with the GIS software which shows the significant waves with some of the damaged MODUs and platforms that were destroyed. *Almost 24 hours prior to landfall of Hurricane Ike the waves were crashing over the Galveston Sea Wall. Ike was an usually large storm.*Hurricanes come in all sizes.**The GIS software allows you to plot the different size hurricane windfields. The yellow arrows indicate the maximum sustained winds greater than 63 knots. Notice that hurricanes come in all sizes. *The size of the hurric

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