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TRANSCRIPT
Four Things to Know In Times of Resource Constraints
Mathis Wackernagel, Ph.D. Colle di Val d'Elsa, 7 June 2010
Biocapacity per person
Ecological Footprint
4 things you need to know…
1.Global Trends (with local impacts)2.Link to Climate (2 scenarios)3.National Trends4.Fear your Eco-Deficit (or what’s your
country’s “Optimum Resource Consumption”?)
Humanity’s Ecological Footprint (1961 onwards)
Tragedy of the Commons(shrink & share)
Political suicide
Tragedy of the Commons
(shrink & share)
Tragedy of the Com
mons
(shrink & share)
Tragedy of the Comm
ons
(shrink & share)
Tragedy of the Commons
(shrink & share)
Tragedy of the Commons(shrink & share)
The Comedy of Common Sense
EITHER: 350 ppm ~ 2° C
OR: 1700 ppmYes, but…
Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors
Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors
Mathis’ life (1962 – onwards)
Annual deficit adds up to a global ecological debt
UN’s Most Moderate ScenarioMathis’ life
Bill
ion
2003
glo
bal h
ecta
res
10
Long-term waste
302050 is being built today (as a trap or an opportunity)
Biocapacity per person
Ecological Footprint
The Ecological Footprint and biocapacity (per capita) of three countries from 1961-2005. A country runs
an
if its Footprint exceeds what its ecosystems can renew. The deficit is made up through net-imports, net-carbon emissions to the global atmosphere, or local resource degradation.
Switzerland
Ecological Footprint
Ecological Footprint
Biocapacity per person
Biocapacity per person
Uganda IranBiocapacity per person
Ecological Footprint
ecological deficit
Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in AfricaEcological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA,1961-2005
What do these graphs show?
All 24 African countries are rapidly loosing per-capita biocapacity.
Four (blue-shaded) countries have assets that allow them to have a net-import and to burn significant quantities of fossil fuel.
Twelve (yellow-shaded) countries’development is limited by their declining biocapacity, leading to SEVERE conflicts.
Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in EuropeEcological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA,1961-2005
HU
DKATDE
ES
RO
SECH
IT
PT
NL
FR
PO
GR
RU
BE
FI
UK
IR
SK
CZ
BY
RS UA
Kenya 1961-today
From nicety to necessity…
4 Contributions4 Contributions
EyjafjallajökullEffect
350 ppm ~ 2° C
1700 ppm
The Ecological Footprint and biocapacity (per capita) of three countries from 1961-2005. A country runs
an
if its Footprint exceeds what its ecosystems can renew. The deficit is made up through net-imports, net-carbon emissions to the global atmosphere, or local resource degradation.
Switzerland
Ecological Footprint
Ecological Footprint
Biocapacity per person
Biocapacity per person
Uganda IranBiocapacity per person
Ecological Footprint
ecological deficit
Biocapacity
Ecological Footprint
Shrinking Ecological Credit
Increasing Ecological and Social Instability
Kenya, 1961 - today
Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Europe
HU
DKATDE
ES
RO
SECH
IT
PT
NL
FR
PO
GR
RU
BE
FI
UK
IR
Biocapacity per person
Ecological Footprint
Why
UAE?
How close are we today to attaining global sustainability?
Conventional belief
natio
nal b
ioca
paci
ty
Collapse
Sustainable path
From nicety to necessity…
Siena, ItalySiena, Italy
June 7June 7--1010
Footprint of Nations, 2005, per capita
2.1 gha
April 15th
April 16th
April 17th
April 15th April 16th April 17th April 18th April 19th
Today
Safe Level
The Eyjafjallajökull effect
April 15th April 16th April 17th April 18th April 19th
Today
Safe Level
The Eyjafjallajökull effect
April 15th April 16th April 17th April 18th April 19th
Today
Safe Level
The Eyjafjallajökull effect
April 15th April 16th April 17th April 18th April 19th
Today
?
Will we flyfor tomorrow?
Safe Level
The Eyjafjallajökull effect
April 15th April 16th April 17th April 18th April 19th
Today
Safe Level
The Eyjafjallajökull effect
?
?
Ecological Footprint compared to country's biocapacity
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
India
B business as usualH “Hopenhagen”
O ?? Optimum ??
Metabolism like a cow
Biocapacity per person
Ecological Footprint
Colonial WarMPLA / FNLA
UNITA formed
Civil war
Cease-fire
Soviet fall
Current composition of resource demand
Lisbon coup
Angola’s Footprint profile provides a kind of cross-sectional representation of the nation’s biocapacity demand for the period of record (1961-2005). Periods of relative stability are followed by a distinctreduction in reported biocapacity demand.
/ =PER CAPITA
ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT(DEMAND)
PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
RESOURCE EFFICIENCY
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
BIOLOGICAL DEMANDAND SUPPLY
PER CAPITABIOCAPACITY
(SUPPLY)xAREA
BIO-PRODUCTIVITY
/ POPULATION =
Five Factors
PIONEER COUNTRIES SO FARSwitzerland
JapanUnited Arab Emirates
BelgiumEcuador
LuxembourgFinland
EU
Bill
ion
2003
glo
bal h
ecta
res
10
Long-term waste
302050 is being built today (as a trap or an opportunity)
WBCSD Vision 2050 - Who’s in?
56WBCSD Vision 2050
15
What to do? Sustainability Wedges and an End to Overshoot (WBCSD)
Global Footprint Network: Strategy and Operating Model
● Our Goal: To secure lasting human well-being by establishing the Ecological Footprint as a prominent, globally accepted metric on par with Gross Domestic Product.
● Our Data: We continue to improve the science of Ecological Footprint accounting, making our methods more transparent and robust, and publishing key supporting resources so the tool can be used widely.
● Our Partners: We are working with a rapidly-expanding network of partners (now numbering more than 90) from the grassroots to national governments, to support innovation and visionary thinking as we work together toward a sustainable human future.
● Our Role: By convening and challenging key thought leaders and decision makers, we are sparking a global conversation about how ecological limits will shape our economic future. Together, we evaluate the options cities, countries and companies have for securing long-term well-being. Emerging from this ongoing conversation, Global Footprint Network anticipates a shift of private and public investments into building a sustainable future for all.
Initiatives and Campaigns: Earth Overshoot DayEarth Overshoot Day 2009 fell on September 25. This was the day in the year by which humanity, in net-terms, had used all the resources and services nature was able to regenerate in 2009. For the rest of the year, humanity was living beyond its ecological means.
In 2009, humanity used 40 percent more ecological
services than the Earth renewed in that year.
This line represents 100% of the Earth’s regenerative capacity.
Initiatives and Campaigns: Human Development
● Goal: For all to live fulfilling lives, within the means of our planet.
● Tools: Two leading indicators have identified how we can get there:
- Ecological Footprint data tell us that, given the earth’s current population and available biocapacity, an Ecological Footprint of less than 2.1 global hectares per person indicates that a country’s resource demands globally replicable.
- The United Nations’ Human Development Index (HDI) measures a country’s average achievements in longevity, literacy and income. An HDI higher than 0.8 is considered “high human development”.
Mid-term goal: Ten-In-TenGoal: In 2005, we set ourselves the goal of institutionalizing the Ecological Footprint in at least 10 key
national governments by 2015. We are on track to surpassing our target. Currently, eight nations have adopted the Footprint in some capacity:● Switzerland● Wales and Scotland● United Arab Emirates● Japan ● Belgium● Ecuador● France● Luxembourg
The Ecological Footprint has been tested by: ● European Commission● Ireland● Germany● Finland● Canada
Our Advisory Council● David T. Suzuki ● Wangari Maathai ● E.O. Wilson ● James Gustave Speth ● Daniel Pauly ● Oscar Arias ● Julia Marton-Lefèvre● William Rees ● Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker ● Lester Brown ● M.S. Swaminathan ● Manfred Max-Neef● Herman E. Daly
● Rhodri Morgan ● Emil Salim ● Norman Myers ● Fabio Feldmann ● Jorgen Randers ● Terry A’Hearn● Dominique Voynet ● Michael Meacher ● Karl-Henrik Robèrt● Will Steffen ● Peter Raven ● Eric Garcetti
Global Footprint Network: Changing Humanity’s Course
We invite you to become part of our global effort to create a world where we can all live well, within the means of one planet.
More on the accounting method: www.footprintnetwork.or/atlas
visit www.footprintnetwork.orgemail [email protected] +1 510-839-8879 x 305 (Mathis Wackernagel)fax: +1 510-251-2410
Oakland, CA, USA ● Brussels, Belgium ● Zürich, Switzerland
CARBON footprint
What is the Ecological Footprint?The Ecological Footprint is a measurement and decision tool that computes how much land and water area a human population requires to produce the resources it consumes and to absorb its CO2 emissions, using prevailing technology.
Livi
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t Rep
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Summary
In this era of climate change and emerging resource constraints, a country that does not know how much biocapacity it has and how much it uses will not be able to operate effectively. Companies need to understand this context as well.
Ecological Footprints track biocapacity – non-speculative accounting for countries, companies & projects.
Global Footprint Network wants 10 (and then 100) nations to adopt this accounting approach – like GDP or unemployment figures. Then countries will reduce their ecological deficit.
The Ecological Footprint
CARBON footprint
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GDP
World GDP in Trillion $ per year
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BAU
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STABILISATION
~ 600 tri $
World GDP in Trillion $ per year