four dystopias for the future of education
DESCRIPTION
I offer four scenarios for the future of education, and each one is dark. An experimental presentation. It follows a trends presentation, which I'll also share.TRANSCRIPT
Dystopias and how to avoid them
Penn StateWorld Campus
-September
2014
Part 2: scenariosStories about futures Event and response Creativity
Roles and times Emergent practices
and patterns
Dystopia ahead
What’s a dystopia?
Start with utopia: Thomas More, 1516 (eu- + u-)
Very grim worlds
Very grim worlds
Extrapolations of current trends
Criticisms of the present (i.e., 1948)
Total systems
Very grim worlds
Even grimmer worlds
Even grimmer worlds Never a happy
ending Rebellions are
quashed
Scenarios to consider
1. Silos stand tall2. Cyberpunk world3. Gilded Age 2.04. Bubble bursts
1. Silos stand tall
Closed information architecture
ContentTeaching
ResearchSource software
Features
Global conversations fragment
Filter bubbles for all
On campus Information prices high Faculty trained to stacks + separation
IT “ “ “ Academic content scarce in the non-OECD world
On campus
Tech support by silo Powerful LMS Library as licensing agent, inter-silo guide
Some good things
Content industries preserved
High quality content “ “ technologies Less malware
Internet has always been a series of walled gardens
The Web is commercial They identified with stacks by age 15
II: Cyberpunk world
Tech saturated Chaotic
Cyberpunk world Hyperglobalized Networked, distributed technology is ubiquitous
Surveillance is the norm, both corporate and governmental
Cyberpunk world States destabilized Companies have increased regulatory capture + policy influence
Subversion by technology Continuous future shock
Cyberpunk world Labor: chaotic, disorganized, sometimes approaching forced
Unemployment high, due to…
On campus
Privatized tuition “ campus support Business + STEM programs + Homeland Security big
On campus
Micropayments for campus transactions
Business metrics Greater military presence
Information literacy vital
Identified with company by age 15
½ of social network is not same nation
Heavy tech training by middle school
III: Gilded Age 2.0
New age of inequality, led by the 1% and their 1%
Stability
Gilded Age 2.0
Alfreds
Gilded Age 2.0 Consumption made conspicuous by digital media
Labor in service, as Alfreds
Automation widespread
Gilded Age 2.0
Gerontocracy in practical politics
Underemployed pacified by funding, media
Gilded Age campus Faculty 99% adjunct (neofeudal campus)
Focus on rich students Student debt > mortgages
Gilded Age campus
F2f for the 1% Distance learning for middle class
MOOCs for everyone else
Gilded Age campus Elite schools offer liberal arts
education Lack of visible tech = mark of
status BA= mark of service quality Leading majors: finance,
human resources, poli sci
Follow 1% displays closely
Contributed to sharing economy by age 10
“Middle class” is as historical as the Crusades
IV. The bubble bursts
Perfect storm
Demographic decline Accelerated prices + sunk costs
Low public funding
Alternatives rising
Education’s reputation declines
Homeschooling boom Informal learning on par w/formal
Corporate/gov. research
Enrollment collapse
http://research.studentclearinghouse.org/files/TermEnrollmentReport-Spring2013.pdf
How does this impact campuses?
Fewer, less crowded campuses
Very international student body, for now
Low-cost programs ($10K BA)
How does this impact campuses?
Less research published
Tenure a rarity Information support largely outsourced
Vocational tech classes are widespread in K-12
Apprenticeships are accepted in career paths
Colleges have always been transnational
Scenarios to consider
1. Silos stand tall2. Cyberpunk world3. Gilded Age 2.04. Bubble bursts
How do we avoid these fates?
Part 3. Ways out
Use social media
Expand involvement with open*
•Own your data
Politics
Lobby politically for massive increase in government funding
Organize on adjuncts Fight for broader
economic policies
Campus
Futures thinking Teach privacy concepts, practices, and technologies
Nurture public intellectuals
Your turn
The bloghttp://bryanalexander.org
The Twitterhttp://twitter.com/BryanAlexander
Image credits
Wikipedia http://lotrlockedwhovian.tumblr.com/post/
91110915848/i-want-this-at-work https://www.flickr.com/photos/urlukket/6485398549 https://www.flickr.com/photos/vblibrary/5537660712 https://
www.flickr.com/photos/jonny2love/4016385671 http://
www.openculture.com/2008/06/george_orwells_1984_download_free_audio_book_version.html
https://www.alfredclub.com/ https://www.flickr.com/photos/pagedooley/35588740
01/in/photostream/