fortum's investor presentation august 2015

55
FORTUM Power and heat company in the Nordic area, Russia and the Baltics Investor / Analyst material August 2015

Upload: fortum

Post on 22-Jan-2017

434 views

Category:

Investor Relations


2 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

FORTUM Power and heat company in the Nordic area, Russia and the Baltics Investor / Analyst material August 2015

Page 2: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

2

Disclaimer

This presentation does not constitute an invitation to underwrite, subscribe for, or otherwise acquire or dispose of any Fortum shares. Past performance is no guide to future performance, and persons needing advice should consult an independent financial adviser.

Page 3: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Fortum today pages 4 – 16

European and Nordic power markets pages 17 – 24 Fortum’s nuclear fleet pages 25 – 28 Russia pages 29 – 31 Fortum’s investment programme page 31 Historical achieved prices page 32 Q1 2015 (some graphs updated) pages 33 – 54 Financials and outlook pages 42 – 54

Content

3

Page 4: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Appr. 121,000 shareholders

• Power and heat company in the Nordic countries, Russia, Poland and the Baltics • Listed at the Helsinki Stock Exchange since 1998 • Among the most traded shares on the Nasdaq Helsinki stock exchange • Market cap ~14 billion euros

4

31 Jully 2015

Foreign investors 29.4% Finnish State 50.8%

Other Finnish investors 7.9%

Finnish households 9.6% Financial and insurance institutions 2.3%

Page 5: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Capital returns: 2014 EUR 1.30 per share ~ EUR 1.2 billion • Fortum’s dividend policy is based on the following preconditions:

– The dividend policy ensures that shareholders receive a fair remuneration for their entrusted capital, supported by the company’s long-term strategy that aims at increasing earnings per share and thereby the dividend.

– When proposing the dividend, the Board of Directors looks at a range of factors, including the macro environment, balance sheet strength as well as future investment plans.

5

Fortum's target is to pay a stable, sustainable and over time increasing

dividend of 50-80% of earnings per share excluding one-off items

Fortum has since 1998 annually paid dividends in total ~11,648 MEUR

2010 68%

2011 50%

2012 63%

2013 81%

2014 37%

1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1

1.3* 5 year dividend per share (EUR) history

0.2

1.1

*Dividend of EUR 1.10 per share, and in addition an extra dividend EUR 0.20 per share for 2014.

Page 6: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Our strategic route

6

Birka Energi 50% → 100%

Gullspång

Neste

Divestment of non-strategic heat business

2007

Skandinaviska Elverk

Länsivoima 45% → 65%

Birka Energi 50% Fortum 50% Stockholm Gullspång merged with Stockholm Energi

TGC-10 Divestment of Fingrid shares

Divestment of heat operations outside of Stockholm

Divestment of Lenenergo shares

1996

IVO Fortum

Divestment of small scale hydro

2012 2008 2015

1997

Lenenergo shares →

Stora Kraft

Länsivoima →100%

2000

Elnova 50% → 100%

Østfold

Shares in Lenenergo

Shares in Hafslund

District heating in Poland →

2003

Oil business spin-off

TGC-1 established

2005

2011

1998 2002

Divestment of electricity distribution and heat businesses

Divestment of electricity distribution business

Divestment of Grangemouth power plant

Divestment of Gasum shares

2014

2006

E.ON Finland

Divestment of electricity distribution business

Page 7: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Fortum’s Mission and Strategy

7

Strategy

Fortum’s purpose is to create energy that improves life for present and future generations. We provide sustainable solutions for society and deliver excellent

value to our shareholders.

Mission

Build on the strong Nordic core

Create solid earnings growth in Russia

Build a platform for future growth

Strong competence in CO2-free hydro and nuclear, efficient CHP production and energy markets

Page 8: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Fortum’s reporting segments and divisions

8

Russia • Power and heat generation

and sales in Russia • Includes OAO Fortum and

Fortum’s slightly over 29% holding in TGC-1

Power and Technology • Hydro, nuclear and thermal

power generation • Power Solutions with expert

services • Portfolio management and

trading • Technology and R&D functions The segment incorporates two business divisions: • Hydro Power and Technology • Nuclear and Thermal Power

Heat, Electricity Sales and Solutions • Combined heat and power

(CHP) production • District heating activities and

business to business heating solutions

• Solar business • Electricity sales and related

customer offering • Corporate Sustainability

Page 9: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Our current geographical presence

9

Nordic countries

Power generation 48.0 TWh

Heat sales 3.3 TWh

Electricity customers 1.3 million

Power generation

Electricity sales

Heat

OAO Fortum Power generation 23.3 TWh Heat sales 26.0 TWh

Russia

Poland Power generation 0.7 TWh Heat sales 3.4 TWh

Baltic countries Power generation 0.7 TWh Heat sales 1.2 TWh

India Power generation 9 GWh

Key figures 2014 Sales EUR 4.1 bn Comparable operating profit EUR 1.1 bn Balance sheet EUR 21 bn Personnel 8,200

Page 10: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

10

Fortum mid-sized European power generation player; major producer in global heat

1) Formerly GDF SUEZ; 2) Veolia incl. Dalkia International and EDF incl. Dalkia's activities in France Source: Company information, Fortum analyses, 2013 figures pro forma, heat production of Beijing DH not available.

Largest global producers, 2013 TWh

Largest producers in Europe and Russia, 2013 TWh

Power generation Heat production Electricity customers in EU, 2013

Millions

Customers

Gazprom

DEI

EuroSibEnergo Iberdrola

Fortum EnBW

Vattenfall

CEZ

RWE

IES

DTEK

PGE

Rosenergoatom

NNEGC Energoat.

Enel E.ON EDF

1) ENGIE

Statkraft

Inter RAO UES RusHydro

EDP

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

1) ENGIE

DEI CEZ

Enel

Centrica EDP

Iberdrola

SSE EnBW

Fortum

EDF E.ON RWE

Gas Natural Fenosa

PGE Tauron

Hafslund Dong Energy

0 20 40 10 30

Vattenfall

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

KDHC

Quadra

Tatenergo

Minskenergo

DTEK

EuroSibEnergo

TGC-2

Fortum

Dong Energy

Enel

Lukoil

Sibgenco

IES

Vattenfall

PGNiG

Inter RAO UES

2) EDF

RusHydro 2 ) Veolia

Gazprom

Fortum Värme

Page 11: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Biggest nuclear and hydro generators in Europe and Russia

11

Figures 2012 pro forma * incl. MOEK, ** incl. Bashkirenergo, *** incl. TGC-5, TGC-6, TGC-7, TGC-9

TWh

Total generation

050

100150200250300350400450500550600

EDF

Ros

ener

goat

om

NN

EG

C E

nerg

oato

m

Rus

Hyd

ro

Vatte

nfal

l

E.O

N

Enel

Euro

SibE

nerg

o

GD

F SU

EZ

Stat

kraf

t

Fortu

m

Iber

drol

a

RW

E

EnBW CE

Z

Axpo

Verb

und

Gaz

prom

Hid

roel

ectri

ca

Cen

trica

Alpi

q

E-C

O E

nerg

i

Ukr

hydr

oene

rgo

Nor

sk H

ydro

EPS,

Ser

bia

BKK

Agde

r Ene

rgi

EDP

Gas

Nat

ural

Fen

osa

DE

I

SSE

Inte

r RAO

UE

S

PGE

DTE

K

IES

Other

Nuclear

Hydro

*

***

**

Page 12: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

12

Fortum in the Nordic electricity value chain

Power generation Nordic wholesale market

Power exchange and bilateral agreements

Large customers

Retail customers

Private customers, small businesses

Page 13: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Fortum's power and heat production by source

13

Natural gas 31%

Nuclear power 33%

Coal 5% Biomass 1%

Total generation 73.4 TWh (Generation capacity 14,624 MW)

Hydro power 30%

Fortum's power generation in 2014

Total production 34.6 TWh (Production capacity 17,402 MW)

Fortum's heat production in 2014

Peat 1% Waste 1%

Biomass 6%

Natural gas 77%

Coal 15%

Page 14: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Nuclear power 48%

Coal 4%

Hydro power 44%

Natural gas 2%

European generation 50.1TWh (Generation capacity 9,851 MW)

Fortum's European power generation in 2014

Biomass 2%

Natural gas 29%

Fortum's European heat production in 2014

Peat 3%

Oil 1%

Waste 3%

Biomass 25%

Heat pumps, electricity 1%

Coal 38%

European production 8.2 TWh (Production capacity 3,936 MW)

Fortum's European power and heat production

14

Page 15: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Fortum a forerunner in sustainability

We are highly committed to sustainability. Our purpose is to create energy that improves life for present and future generations.

We provide sustainable solutions for society while delivering excellent value to our shareholders. We want to act responsibly, both in the short term and long term.

Fortum is listed in several sustainability indexes:

• Nordic Climate Disclosure Leadership Index (CDLI) • STOXX® Global ESG Leaders indices • oekom • OMX GES Sustainability Finland Index • ECPI® Indices

15

Emissions-free production is Fortum’s strategic choice

Page 16: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

DE

I

RW

E

Dra

x

SS

E

CE

Z

E.O

N

Vat

tenf

all

ED

P

Ene

l

Edi

pow

er

EnB

W

Gas

Nat

ural

Fen

osa

GD

F S

UE

Z

Don

g E

nerg

y

Fortu

m to

tal

Iber

drol

a

PV

O

ED

F

Ver

bund

Fortu

m E

U

Sta

tkra

ft

64

g CO2/kWh electricity, 2013

2014 64% of Fortum's total power generation CO2-free 94% of Fortum’s power generation in the EU CO2-free

Close to 100% of the ongoing investment programme in the EU is CO2-free.

Average 328 g/kWh

200

Fortum's carbon exposure among the lowest in Europe

16

Note: : Fortum’s specific emissions of the power generation in 2014 in the EU were 39 g/kWh and in total 177 g/kWh. Only European generation except “Fortum total“ which includes Russia.

Source: PWC & Enerpresse, December 2014 Climate Change and Electricity, Fortum

Page 17: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Carbon market gradually tightening Political decisions strengthening the EU Emissions Trading System Decision on the 2030 greenhouse gas

reduction target Backloading decision, implementation started

in 2014 Market Stability Reserve (MSR), adoption

expected during summer 2015, to be operational 2019

Upcoming review of ETS-Directive

Robust and rebalanced EU carbon market foreseen by early 2020’s Current oversupply to halve early 2020’s and

gradually cease towards 2030 Gradual appreciation of allowance price.

17

EU ETS = European Union Emissions Trading System EUA = allowance in the EU ETS

Source: Thomson Reuters Point Carbon

Page 18: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Market coupling milestones - cross-border power flows optimised by power exchanges • Market coupling between NL, BE and FR since 2006 • Germany – Nord Pool Spot coupling started 11/2009 • Market coupling for Central Western Europe (DE, FR, NL, BE)

since 11/2010 with a continued coupling with Nord Pool Spot • Poland coupled with Nord Pool Spot since December 2010 • NorNed (NO-NL) and BritNed (UK-NL) included in 2011 • Estonian price area in Nord Pool Spot since 2010 and

Lithuanian area since 6/2012. Latvia joined in June 2013 • Czech, Slovakia and Hungary coupled together since September

2012. Romania joined in November 2014 • A common day-ahead market coupling for the whole north-western

Europe was started in February 2014. Iberia (Spain & Portugal) joined in May 2014. Italy and Slovenia joined in February 2015

• Flow-based cross-border capacity allocation for further trade optimisation taken into use in May 2015 for the CWE region

• Lithuania-Poland (LitPol Link) coupling to start by end-2015 • CEE (Central Eastern Europe) market coupling region to join in

2017. Switzerland waiting for agreement with the EU • In addition to day-ahead coupling, intraday market coupling

and balancing market integration under development as well

18

2009

2/2015

2012-2014

2010-2013

2017

2014

Page 19: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Current transmission capacity from Nordic area is over 5,000 MW

19

• Theoretical maximum in transmission capacity ~40 TWh per annum

• Net export from Nordic area to Continental Europe and Estonia during year 2014 was 13 TWh

• During the dry year 2013 net export was 3 TWh • Approximately 25 TWh of net export is now reachable

Countries Transmission capacity MW

From Nordics To Nordics

Denmark - Germany 2,225 2,100

Sweden - Germany 615 600

Sweden - Poland 600 600

Norway - Netherlands 700 700

Finland - Estonia 1000 1,016

Finland - Russia 320 1,300

Total 5,460 6,316

700

2,225 615 600

1000

320

Page 20: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Nordic, Baltic, Continental and UK markets are integrating – interconnection capacity will double by 2021

20

Two 1400 MW NO-UK links as EU Projects of Common Interest: NSN link to England agreed to be ready in 2021, NorthConnect to Scotland still requiring Norwegian permission

First direct 1400 MW NO-DE link contracted to be built by end-2019

EU financial support for a 700 MW DK-NL link, due to be built by 2019

Jutland – DE capacity planned to grow by 860 MW by 2020, with further 500 MW increase by 2022

Svenska Kraftnät agreed 3/2014 with 50Hertz to study a new Hansa PowerBridge DC link between Sweden and Germany

The Northern Seas Offshore Grid and the Baltic Energy Market Integration Plan are included as priority electricity corridors in EU’s Infrastructure Guidelines, approved in April 2013

New interconnections will double the export capacity to over 10,000 MW by 2021

LitPol Link (500+500 MW) to connect the Baltic market to Poland by end-2015/20. It will open a new transmission route from the Nordic market to the Continent

EU’s European Energy Programme for Recovery co-financing 700 MW NordBalt (ready 12/2015)

New internal Nordic grid investments provide for increased available capacity for export to the Continent and Baltics

EU’s Connecting Europe Facility co-financing 3rd EE-LV transmission line, due to be ready by 2020

New 400 MW Zealand – DE Kriegers Flak connection by 2019

New 1000-1400 MW DK-UK Viking Link not yet decided, but planned to be built by end-2020/2022

New interconnectors New Nordic lines Existing interconnectors

Page 21: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Nordic year forwards

21

Source: Nasdaq Commodities

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

€/MWh 10 August 2015

Year15 Year17 Year19 Year10 Year11 Year12 Year13 Year14 Year16 Year18 Year20

2014

Q1

2008

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2009

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2010

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2011

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2012

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2013

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2015

Q1 Q2 Q3

Page 22: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Wholesale prices for electricity

22

Source: Nord Pool Spot, Nasdaq Commodities, APX-ENDEX, Bloomberg Finance LP, ATS, NP “Market Council”, Fortum

* Including weighted average capacity price

Dutch

German

Nordic

Russian*

Spot prices Forward prices EUR/MWh

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

7 August 2015

Page 23: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Nordic power generation – dominated by hydro, but fossil needed

23

Source: ENTSO-E Statistical Factsheet 2014 *) Normal annual Nordic hydro generation 200 TWh, variation +/- 40 TWh.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Denmark Norway Sweden Finland

Fossil fuels

Nuclear

Biomass

Solar

Wind

Hydro *

TWh/a

Total Nordic generation 390 TWh in 2014

Net export in 2014: 10 TWh

23

85

TWh %

39

214

28

6

22

10

55

7

1 0

Page 24: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Wholesale electricity price too low to attract investments

24

NOTE: The presented figures are calculated based on data from recent public reports and do not represent Fortum’s view. Average achieved price (€/MWh) for the production type depends on availability and flexibility. There are large variations in the cost of hydro, wind and solar depending on location and conditions.

0102030405060708090

100110

Source: Nord Pool spot, Nasdaq Commodities

EUR/MWh

Futures 7 August 2015

1995 2015 2025 0

102030405060708090

100110

Onshore wind

Nuclear Utility scale Solar PV In Italy

Large hydro

Offshore wind

EUR/MWh

Average levelised costs of new electricity generation

Coal condensing

Gas

Commodity prices are forward prices as of August 2014.

Page 25: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Overview of Fortum’s nuclear fleet

25

LOVIISA OLKILUOTO OSKARSHAMN FORSMARK

Commercial operation started

Unit 1: 1977 Unit 2: 1981

Unit 1: 1978 Unit 2: 1980 Unit 3: (Under construction)

Unit 1: 1972 Unit 2: 1974 Unit 3: 1985

Unit 1: 1980 Unit 2: 1981 Unit 3: 1985

Generation Capacity Fortum’s share

Unit 1: 496 MW Unit 2: 496 MW Total: 992 MW

Unit 1: 880 MW Unit 2: 880 MW (Unit 3: 1,600 MW) Total: 1,760 MW (3,360) 27% 468 MW

Unit 1: 473 MW Unit 2: 638 MW Unit 3: 1,400 MW Total: 2,511 MW 43% 1,089 MW

Unit 1: 984 MW Unit 2: 1,120 MW Unit 3: 1,170 MW Total: 3,274 MW 22% 720 MW

Yearly production Fortum’s share of production

8 TWh 8 TWh

14 TWh 4 TWh

17 TWh 7 TWh

25 TWh 5.5 TWh

Share of Fortums Nordic production 18% 9% 16% 13%

Majority owner Fortum’s share

Fortum

Pohjolan Voima 26.6%

E.ON 43.4%

Vattenfall 22.2%

Operated by Fortum Teollisuuden Voima (TVO) OKG Aktiebolag Forsmarks Kraftgrupp

Responsibilities Loviisa: Fortum is the owner, licensee and operator with all the responsibilities specified in the Nuclear Energy Act, Nuclear Liability Act, and other relevant nuclear legislation Other units: Fortum is solely an owner with none of the responsibilities assigned to the licensee in the nuclear legislation. Other responsibilities are specified in the Companies Act and the Articles of Association and are mostly financial.

Page 26: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Olkiluoto

Loviisa Forsmark

Oskarshamn

Fortum's nuclear power in the Nordics

26

• Finnish units world class in availability • Overview of production and consumption:

www.fortum.com/investors - energy related links

Source: Fortum

Load factor (%) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2014

Osakarshamn 1 80 51 63 85 68 77 72 1 13 74

Oskarshamn 2 90 78 76 86 75 90 77 81 33 0

Oskarshamn 3 85 95 88 70 17 31 75 69 77 75

Forsmarks 1 85 76 81 81 88 93 79 88 87 94

Forsmark 2 94 72 85 79 64 39 94 82 89 89

Forsmark 3 95 92 88 69 86 81 85 93 88 82

Loviisa 1 95 93 94 86 96 93 94 84 92 92

Loviisa 2 95 88 96 93 95 89 94 91 93 89

Olkiluoto 1 98 94 97 94 97 92 94 90 97 94

Olkiluoto 2 94 97 94 97 95 95 90 96 93 97

Page 27: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Variety of technologies and ages

27

Planned capacity increases

• Oskarshamn 2 in 2017, capacity increase 180 MW (Fortum’s share 78 MW), Fortum’s share of total capacity after increase 355 MW

• Forsmark 1 in 2017-2020, capacity increase 120 MW (Fortum’s share 27 MW), Fortum’s share of total capacity after increase 257 MW

PWR = Pressurized Water Reactor The most common reactor type in the world (e.g. all French units, most US units). Also the Loviisa units are PWRs, but based on Russian design. High pressure prevents water from boiling n the reactor. The steam rotating the turbine is generated in separate steam generators.

BWR = Boiling Water Reactor Similar to the PWR in many ways, but the steam is generated directly in the reactor. Popular reactor type e.g. in Sweden, the US and Japan.

*Generation refers to technical resemblence based on KSU classification and not to reactor design generations. All reactors are of Generation II except Olkiluoto-3 (EPR) which is of Generation III.

Unit MWe (Net) Share (%) Share (MWe) Commercial operation

Age Type/ Generation *

Supplier

Loviisa 1 Loviisa 2

496 496

100,0 100,0

496 496

1977-05-09 1981-01-05

36 33

PWR / 1 PWR / 1

AEE (Atomenergoexport) AEE (Atomenergoexport)

Olkiluoto 1 Olkiluoto 2 Olkiluoto 3

880 880

(1,600)

26,6 26,6 25,0

234 234

(400)

1979-10-10 1982-07-10

(?)

34 31

BWR / 3 BWR / 3 PWR / 3

Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval

Areva / Siemens

Oskarshamn 1 Oskarshamn 2 Oskarshamn 3

473 638

1,400

43,4 43,4 43,4

205 277 607

1972-02-06 1975-01-01 1985-08-15

42 39 28

BWR / 1 BWR / 2 BWR / 4

Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval

Forsmark 1 Forsmark 2 Forsmark 3

984 1,120 1,170

23,4 23,4 20,1

230 262 236

1980-12-10 1981-07-07 1985-08-18

33 32 28

BWR / 3 BWR / 3 BWR / 4

Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval

Page 28: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Third party nuclear liability in case of severe accident

28

Sweden (new, not in force)

Finland, temporary legislation

Current, Sweden

700 M€

200 M€ 360 M€

500 M€ Responsibility of company (insurance or guarantee)

Unlimited company responsibility Convention parties 300 M€

State responsibility

300 M€

500 M€

700 M€

New Paris convention

700 M€

145 M€

145 M€

Old, Finland

240 M€

145 M€

In force since 1.1.2012.

Law approved by Parliament in 2010, requires separate decision from Government to come into force.

Requires ratification by 2/3 of member states to come into force. In Finland approved by Parliament in 2005

Page 29: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Fortum - a major player in Russia

OAO Fortum (former TGC-10) • Operates in the heart of Russia’s oil and gas producing region, fleet mainly gas-fired CHP capacity • 23 TWh power generation, 26 TWh heat production in 2014 • Investment programme to add 85%, almost 2,400 MW to power generation capacity

TGC-1 • 29.5% of territorial generating company TGC-1 operating in north-west Russia • ~7,200 MW electricity production capacity (more than 40% hydro),

~24 TWh electricity, ~28 TWh heat in 2014

Fortum and Gazprom Energoholding signed a protocol to start a restructuring process of TGC-1. Currently Gazprom Energoholding owns 51.8% of the TGC-1 shares and Fortum 29.5%. As part of the restructuring, Fortum will establish a joint venture together with Rosatom to own the hydro assets of TGC-1, while Gazprom Energoholding continues with the heat and thermal power businesses of TGC-1. By utilising its present stake in TGC-1, Fortum would obtain a 75-plus-percent ownership in the new hydro power company, and Rosatom a 25-minus-percent minority holding.

29

OAO Fortum

Tyumen

Tobolsk

Chelyabinsk

Nyagan

TGC-1

St. Petersburg

Moscow

Page 30: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

30

Day ahead wholesale market prices in Russia Key electricity, capacity and gas prices in the OAO Fortum area

II/15 II/14 I-II/15 I-II/14 2014 LTM

Electricity spot price (market price), Urals hub, RUB/MWh

1,021 1,132 1,036 1,075 1,089 1,069

Average regulated gas price, Urals region, RUB 1000 m3

3,362 3,362 3,362 3,362 3,362 3,362

Average capacity price for CCS ”old capacity”, tRUB/MW/month

140 152 152 168 167 159

Average capacity price for CSA ”new capacity”, tRUB/MW/month

578 493 647 553 552 605

Average capacity price, tRUB/MW/month 326 271 360 303 304 333

Achieved power price for OAO Fortum, EUR/MWh 27.9 32.3 26.8 31.4 30.4 28.1

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

RU

B /

MW

h

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

€/ M

Wh

In addition to the power price generators receive a capacity payment. Source: ATS 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Day ahead power market prices for Urals

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Page 31: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

85% increase in power generation capacity in Russia by 2015 through the investment programme

31

Year Supply starts

Power plant Fuel type Existing capacity

2,785 MW

New investments

2,388 MW

Production type Total capacity

5,173 MW < 2011 Tyumen CHP-2 Gas 755 CHP/Condensing 755

Chelyabinsk CHP-2 Gas, coal 320 CHP/Condensing 320

Argayash CHP Gas, coal 195 CHP/Condensing 195

Chelyabinsk CHP-1 Gas, coal 149 CHP/Condensing 149

2011 Feb/2011 Tyumen CHP-1 Gas 472 209 CHP/Condensing 681

June/2011 Chelyabinsk CHP-3 Gas 360 216 CHP/Condensing 576

Oct/2011 Tobolsk CHP Gas 452 213 CHP/Condensing 665

2013 April/2013 Nyagan 1 GRES Gas 418 Condensing 418

Dec/2013 Nyagan 2 GRES Gas 418 Condensing 418

2015 Jan/2015 Nyagan 3 GRES Gas 418 Condensing 418

2H/2015 Chelyabinsk GRES Gas 82 248 CHP/Condensing 330

2H/2015 Chelyabinsk GRES Gas 248 CHP/Condensing 248

2,785 MW 2,388 MW 5,173 MW

Page 32: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Hedging improves stability and predictability

32

2009 onwards thermal and import from Russia excluded

Page 33: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Q2 2015 Results

33

Key figures (MEUR) II/2015 II/2014 I-II/2015 I-II/2014 2014 LTM Sales, continuing operations 794 886 1,834 2,094 4,088 3,828

Comparable EBITDA, continuing operations 228 302 624 758 1,457 1,323

Operating profit:

Continuing operations 144 233 494 599 1,296 1,191 Discontinued operations 4,314 63 4,395 2,030 2,132 4,497 Fortum total 4,458 295 4,889 2,629 3,428 5,688

Comparable operating profit:

Continuing operations 143 210 486 568 1,085 1,003 Discontinued operations 32 45 114 164 266 216 Fortum total 175 255 600 732 1,351 1,219

Profit before taxes:

Continuing operations 143 224 493 597 1,232 1,128 Discontinued operations 4,313 61 4,394 2,029 2,128 4,493 Fortum total 4,456 284 4,887 2,626 3,360 5,621

Earnings per share:

Continuing operations 0.13 0.22 0.46 0.57 1.22 1.11 Discontinued operations 4.85 0.06 4.92 2.24 2.33 5.01 Fortum total 4.98 0.28 5.38 2.81 3.55 6.12

Net cash from operating activities, continuing operations 229 394 745 799 1,406 1,352

Page 34: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Summary of the second quarter of 2015

• Fortum’s results continued to be pressured by low electricity prices

• The second quarter was characterised by among the highest precipitation in recent history, which resulted in high and partly must-run hydro power production

• Swedish electricity distribution business divestment completed the whole Distribution sale

• The negotiations on Russian TGC-1 restructuring did not come to conclusions

34

Page 35: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Market conditions in the second quarter of 2015 Nordic countries • Power consumption in the Nordic countries at the same level as in Q2 2014 • The precipitation was among the highest recorded this century in Norway and

Sweden. In addition, by the end of the second quarter, large amounts of the precipitation still remained as snow in Norway, because of the delayed snow melt

• Nordic system spot prices approximately EUR 5 per MWh lower than in Q2 2014, while Finnish and Swedish area prices EUR 9-11 per MWh lower

European business environment and carbon market • In May, a compromise was reached on the market stability reserve (MSR) of the

EU emissions trading system. In July, the Commission published a proposal to revise the Emissions Trading Directive

Russia • Power consumption in Fortum’s operating areas was on the same level as in Q2

2014 • Electricity spot price (in RUB) in the Urals hub declined 10% compared to Q2

2014

35

Page 36: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Nordic water reservoirs

36

Source: Nord Pool Spot

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

20

40

60

80

100

120

rese

rvoi

r con

tent

(TW

h)

0

2000 2003 2014 2013 reference level 2015

Page 37: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Wholesale price for electricity

37

Source: Nord Pool Spot, Nasdaq Commodities

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110EUR/MWh Nord Pool Spot System Price Forwards

7 August 2015

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Page 38: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

0

30

60

90

120

150

USD

/ bb

l

Crude oil price (ICE Brent)

2007 2008 20112009 2010 20132012 2014 2015 20160

7

14

21

28

35

EUR

/ tC

O2

CO2 price (ICE ECX EUA)

2007 2008 20112009 2010 20132012 2014 2015 2016

0

50

100

150

200

250

USD

/ t

Coal price (ICE Rotterdam)

2007 2008 20112009 2010 20132012 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

GB

p / t

herm

Gas price (ICE NBP)

2007 2008 20112009 2010 20132012 2014 2015 2016

38

Source: ICE

Market prices 5 August 2015; 2015-2016 future quotations

Fuel and CO2 allowance prices

Page 39: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Price development in the Nordic region and Russia

39

Includes capacity income

-19%

-23% -14%

-10%

Page 40: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Q2: Low electricity prices continued to impact results negatively – somewhat compensated by hydro volumes

40

Comparable operating profit, EUR million

Page 41: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

January - June: Clearly lower achieved power price

41

Comparable operating profit, EUR million

Page 42: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Financials

Page 43: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Comparable and reported operating profit

II/2015 II/2014 II/2015 II/2014 I-II/2015 I-II/2014 I-II/2015 I-II/2014

Power and Technology 114 183 117 151 317 434 320 413 Heat, Electricity Sales and Solutions 11 11 9 67 68 59 73 112

Russia 35 28 36 28 132 102 133 101

Other -17 -13 -17 -13 -32 -27 -32 -28 Total, continuing operations 143 210 144 233 486 568 494 599

Discontinued operations 32 45 4,314 63 114 164 4,395 2,030

Total, Fortum 175 255 4,458 295 600 732 4,889 2,629

43

Comparable operating profit

Reported operating profit MEUR

Non-recurring items including approximately EUR -15 million effect from the cancellation of Olkiluoto 4 nuclear power project, as well as an IFRS accounting treatment (IAS 39) of derivatives and nuclear fund adjustments for continuing operations amounted to EUR 1 (23) million in the second quarter and EUR 8 (30) million in January-June 2015.

Reported operating profit

Comparable operating profit

Page 44: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Power and Technology

MEUR II/2015 II/2014 I-II/2015 I-II/2014 2014 LTM

Sales 404 487 904 1,072 2,156 1,988

Comparable EBITDA 143 213 375 496 998 877

Comparable operating profit 114 183 317 434 877 760

Net assets 6,093 6,113 6,001

Comparable RONA % 14.2 12.6

Gross investments 42 37 70 72 198 196

44

Q2 2015 • Clearly higher precipitation had a positive

impact on the hydro volumes, but put pressure on the electricity spot price

• EUR -15 million effect of the cancelled Olkiluoto 4 nuclear power project in Finland

H1 2015 • Clearly lower achieved power price

• First quarter was exceptionally mild • Second quarter characterised by among

the highest precipitation in recent history

Page 45: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Heat, Electricity Sales and Solutions

45

Q2 2015 • Comparable operating profit on same level as

in comparison period -The lower electricity power price was partly compensated by lower fuel costs.

MEUR II/2015 II/2014 I-II/2015 I-II/2014 2014 LTM

Sales 244 269 650 715 1,332 1,267

Comparable EBITDA 35 36 117 109 204 212

Comparable operating profit 11 11 68 59 104 113

Net assets 2,073 2,176 2,112

Comparable RONA % 8.7 8.3

Gross investments 22 14 33 27 124 130

H1 2015 • Comparable operating profit improved mainly

due lower fuel costs and higher heat prices during the period

• In retail electricity sales, the customer base continued to grow and the sales margin improved

Page 46: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Russia Q2 2015 • Improved result partly offset by lower electricity

prices, as well as bad debt provisions for heat trade receivables

• Russian rouble affected the result negatively by EUR 3 million

46

MEUR II/2015 II/2014 I-II/2015 I-II/2014 2014 LTM

Sales 211 234 474 567 1,055 962

Comparable EBITDA* 65 64 159 177 304 286

Comparable operating profit 35 28 132 102 161 191

Net assets 3,159 3,870 2,597

Comparable RONA % 5.6 6.8

Gross investments 69 97 114 156 367 325

H1 2015 • Comparable operating profit improved due to

positive effect from new units • Russian rouble affected the result negatively

by EUR 50 million • Result includes CSA provision release of EUR

32 million

* Excluding the net release of CSA provision

Page 47: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Discontinued operations (Distribution)

47

Q2 and H1 2015 • On 1 June 2015, Fortum completed the divestment of its Swedish electricity distribution

business. Fortum booked a one-time sales gain of approximately EUR 4.3 billion, corresponding to EUR 4.82 per share

Table below includes January-March 2014 results for the Finnish, January-May 2014 results for the Norwegian and full year 2014 results as well as January-May 2015 for the Swedish distribution business

MEUR II/2015 II/2014 I-II/2015 I-II/2014 2014 LTM

Sales 95 148 275 449 751 577

Comparable EBITDA 52 80 164 251 416 329

Comparable operating profit 32 45 114 164 266 216

Net assets 2,642 2,615

Gross investments 25 35 44 60 147 131

Page 48: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Income statement MEUR II/2015 II/2014 I-II/2015 I-II/2014 2014 LTM Sales 794 886 1,834 2,094 4,088 3,828 Other income and expenses -651 -676 -1,348 -1,526 -3,003 2,825

Comparable operating profit 143 210 486 568 1,085 1,003 Items affecting comparability 1 23 8 30 211 189

Operating profit 144 233 494 599 1,296 1,191 Share of profit of associates and jv’s 22 37 80 107 146 119

Financial expenses, net -23 -46 -81 -109 -210 -182

Profit before taxes 143 224 493 597 1,232 1,128 Income tax expense -25 -27 -80 -89 -143 -134

Net profit, continuing operations 118 196 413 508 1,089 994 Net profit, discontinued operations 4,306 51 4,369 1,994 2,073 4,448 Net profit, Fortum total 4,424 247 4,782 2,502 3,161 5,441

EPS, basic (EUR), continuing operations 0.13 0.22 0.46 0.57 1.22 1.11

EPS, basic (EUR), discontinued operations 4.85 0.06 4.92 2.24 2.33 5.01

EPS, basic (EUR), Fortum Total 4.98 0.28 5.38 2.81 3.55 6.12

48

Page 49: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Cash flow statement MEUR II/2015 II/2014 I-II/2015 I-II/2014 2014 LTM Cash from operating activities:

Realised FX gains/losses 35 81 203 155 352 400 Other funds from operations (FFO) 158 176 472 547 1,096 1,021 Change in working capital 36 137 70 97 -42 -69

Cash from operating activities, cont. operations 229 394 745 799 1,406 1,352 Cash from operating activities, discontinued operations 66 61 154 222 356 288

Cash from operating activities, total Fortum 296 455 899 1,022 1,762 1,639

Cash used in investing activities: Paid capital expenditures -107 -135 -209 -257 -622 -574 Proceeds from divestments 1 103 37 107 499 429 Other investment activities 222 164 241 209 364 416

Total investing activities, continuing operations 116 132 69 59 241 251

Total investing activities, discontinued operations

6,345 187 6,303 2,648 2,574 6,229

Cash used in investing activities, total Fortum

6,461 319 6,372 2,706 2,816 6,482

Cash flow before financing activities, total Fortum 6,757 774 7,272 3,727 4,578 8,123

49

Page 50: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Key ratios

MEUR LTM 2014

Comparable EBITDA, continuing operations 1,323 1,457

Comparable EBITDA, total Fortum 1,652 1,873

Interest-bearing net debt, total Fortum -1,846 4,217

Comparable net debt/EBITDA, total Fortum -1.1 2.3

excluding Värme financing -1.3 2.0

50

ROCE % Return on capital employed, total Fortum 29.0 19.5

Liquid funds totalled EUR 8.6 billion Committed credit lines total EUR 2.2 billion

Page 51: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Debt portfolio and average interest rate at the balance sheet date 30 June 2015 (31 December 2014)

51

• Total interest-bearing debt EUR 6,765 million – Average interest 4.2% (3.7%) – Portfolio mainly in EUR and

SEK with average interest cost 2.9% (2.9%)

– EUR 786 (681) million swapped to RUB, average interest cost including cost for hedging 14.3% (11.3%)

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025+Bonds Financial institutions Other long-term debt Other short-term debt

Maturity profile

Page 52: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Outlook

Page 53: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Outlook Nordic markets

• Fortum continues to expect that the average annual electricity demand growth will be on average approximately 0.5% in the coming years

• Electricity is expected to continue to gain share of total energy consumption Russia

• The run-rate operating profit (EBIT) level for the Russia Segment, RUB 18.2 billion, is targeted to be reached during 2015, but the euro result level will be volatile, due to the translation effect

Key drivers and risks

• Economic • Political • Currency • Wholesale price of electricity and volumes

• demand and supply • fuels • hydrological situation • power plant availability • CO2 emissions allowance prices

53

Page 54: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Outlook Annual capex estimate, excluding potential acquisitions

• 2015 approximately EUR 0.8 billion

Hedging • Rest of 2015 approx. 45% hedge ratio at approx. EUR 41/MWh • 2016 approx. 25% hedge ratio at approx. EUR 35/MWh

Taxation

• Effective tax rate for 2015 for the Group 19-21% • The Swedish Parliament decided to approve the proposed tax increase

of 17% on installed nuclear capacity. The tax will be implemented as of 1 August 2015. The estimated impact on Fortum is approximately EUR 15 million annually, albeit corporate tax-deductable

54

Page 55: Fortum's investor presentation August 2015

Fortum Investor Relations For more information, please visit www.fortum.com/investors

Follow us on: Free IR app for iPhone and iPad (App Store) and Android (Google Play)

www.twitter.com/Fortum www.linkedin.com/company/fortum

Fortum ForEnergy blog at http://fortumforenergyblog.wordpress.com www.youtube.com/user/fortum

Sophie Jolly Vice President +358 (0)10 453 2552 [email protected] Rauno Tiihonen Manager +358 (0)10 453 6150 [email protected] Marja Mäkinen Manager (SRI) +358 (0)10 452 3338 [email protected] Meeting requests:

Arja-Tuula Tiainen Executive Assistant +358 (0)10 453 4487 [email protected]

Next result publication: Q2/2015 on 17 July 2015

55