foresight scoping visit to colombia
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Dr Rafael PopperResearch Fellow, Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (UK)
Innovation Director & CEO, Futures Diamond (Czech Republic)[email protected] - [email protected]
(with inputs from Prof Luke Georghiou, Vice-President for Research and Innovation)
Opportunities for Engagement
with the University of Manchester
& Futures DiamondUK Science and Innovation Delegation to ColombiaBogota-Medellin-Cali, Colombia (16-20 April 2012)
Since merger in 2004 – joining the elite
Fastest climber in Shanghai Ranking
50% increase in research grant income since 2004
3rd or 4th in RAE2008 – depending on measures used
Major improvement in total third-party investment in University intellectual property as evidenced by the dramatic increase in invention disclosures (up 56%) and licenses issued (up 123%);
Substantial transformation of the physical infrastructure of the campus with more than £400m invested through the largest capital programme ever undertaken by a UK university in modern times
Quality
Manchester: Britain's greatest university?It now has more working Nobel Laureates than any university in the country – and a history of discoveries that have shaped the world, writes Jonathan Brown - 9 October 2010
Some key themes
Dalton Nuclear Institute
Manchester Cancer Research Centre
Brooks World Poverty Institute
How we see the world
Band 1 China, Europe, India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea
and U.S.A.
Band 2 Australia, Brazil, Canada, Gulf States, Israel, Mexico,
Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Taiwan.
Band 3 Rest of the World
Challenge now to globalise
UK In-
dustry73%
EU Industry11%
Non-EU Industry
16%
Industrial research income
http://www.umip.com
Commercialisation
We aim to commercialise the intellectual property that we generate
Our motives To fulfil a public mission
(economic and social impact) by ensuring that our work is commercialised
To attract the best academics
To at least break-even on University cash invested
MIoIR Research Themes
1. Research themes
2. Technology strategy and innovation management
3. Services and organisational innovation
4. Science, innovation policy and strategic intelligence (foresight & horizon scanning)
5. Innovation and sustainability
6. Innovation, innovation systems and economic development
MIoIR Short Courses / Executive Education
1. Evaluation of Science and Technology Policies
2. Foresight: Horizon-scanning and Scenarios
3. Key Issues and Strategies
4. Science Technology and Innovation Policy
MBS Masters Courses1. MSc Innovation Management and Entrepreneurship2. MSc Accounting and Finance3. MSc Analytics: Operational Research and Risk Analysis4. MSc Chinese Business and Management5. MSc Corporate Communications and Reputation Management6. MSc Finance and Business Economics7. MSc Finance8. MBus Global Business Analysis9. MSc Healthcare Management10. MSc Human Resource Management and Industrial Relations11. MSc Human Resource Management and Comparative Industrial Relations
(International)12. MSc Information Systems: Business IT13. MSc Information Systems: e-business Technology14. MSc Information Systems: Organisations and Management15. MSc International Business and Management16. MSc Management17. MSc Managerial Psychology18. MSc Marketing19. MSc Operations, Project and Supply Chain Management20. MSc Organisational Psychology21. MSc Quantitative Finance: Financial Engineering22. MSc Quantitative Finance: Risk Management
MIoIR MSc Innovation Management & Entrepreneurship
Duration: 12 months full-time or 24 months part-time
Our masters looks at how:
new ideas become successful products
entrepreneurial expertise creates growth
companies harness knowledge to remain competitive
knowledge shapes society and vice versa
climate change can be tackled with new technology
to overcome the practical challenges associated with creating a new entrepreneurial venture
economies can be transformed through successive gales of creative destruction?
Top 10 actions for Universities & City-Regions as a Knowledge Capital (1 of 2) Georghiou & Cassingena Harper (2008)
1. Target and build-up centers of excellence in universities,
2. Bring business and HEI cultures closer by ensuring that business and academic leaders network and that this is matched by networking at middle rank.
3. The universities should develop concerted strategy for interacting with business networks and helping to create new networks where they do not exist. They should also be prepared to drop those that outlived their purpose.
4. The City-Regional Development Agency along with businesses and universities should consider mapping and evaluating their networks as first step to broader proactive strategy. More systematic use made of existing networks to get access to prime movers and shakers nationally and worldwide.
5. Universities provide physical space for networks at their entrepreneurial interfaces such as incubators.
Top 10 actions for Universities & City-Regions as a Knowledge Capital (2 of 2) Georghiou & Cassingena Harper (2008)
6. Engage locally based business education in developing leaders and managers equipped to work in networked knowledge capital.
7. Engage business in mentoring university staff in terms of understanding the business environment.
8. Focus on a knowledge-based inward investment strategy
9. Promote the ‘Knowledge Capital’10.Foster a ‘can-do’ culture
New Horizon Scanning concept(Popper, 2011)
Horizon Scanning (HS) is a structured and continuous activity aimed at monitoring, analysing and positioning (MAP) ‘frontier issues’ that are relevant for policy, research and strategic agendas. The types of issues mapped by HS include new/emerging: trends, policies, products, services, stakeholders, technologies, practices, behaviours, attitudes, ‘surprises’ (wild cards) and ‘seeds of change’ (weak signals).
NEF Issues New Emerging Frontier
MAP Monitoring Analysing Positioning
Agendas Policy Research Strategy
New Foresight concept(Popper, 2011)
Foresight is a systematic, participatory, prospective and policy-oriented process which, with the support of environmental and horizon scanning approaches, is aimed to actively engage key stakeholders into a wide range of activities anticipating, recommending and transforming (ART) technological, economic, environmental, political, social and ethical (TEEPSE) futures.
Key/Emerging/Frontier Issues Environmental
Scanning Horizon Scanning
ART Anticipating Recommending Transforming
TEEPSE futures Technological Economic Environmental Political Social Ethical
New Weak Signal concept(Popper, 2011)
Weak Signals are ambiguous events, often referred to as “seeds of change”, providing advance intelligence or “hints” about potentially important futures, e.g. Wild Cards, challenges and opportunities. Weak Signals lie in the eye of the beholder and are often influenced by the mental frameworks and subjective interpretations of individuals with limited information about emerging trends, developments or issues in a particular time and context. Their “weakness” is directly proportional to levels of uncertainty about their interpretations, importance and implications in the short-medium-to-long-term. Weak Signals are unclear observables warning us about the possibility of future “game changing” events.
Influenced by Mental frameworks Subjective
interpretations Limited information Time/Context
i3 uncertain issues Interpretation Importance Implications
Pseudo-evidence-based Unclear observables
Creativity-based Game changing
events
As a result, we need more systematic research & innovation efforts aimed
atmapping futures & interconnecting
knowledge
1st messageThere are many
“futures” around us…
weak signals
policiesvisions
scenarios
risks opportunities
innovationswild cards
strategies
Evolution of Mapping Futures Our Mapping Foresight work has
produced a vast amount of futures-related information unprecedented in the world
Our Mapping Foresight activities have been useful to understand foresight practices in Europe and other world regions
2005 2006 20072004
437 cases mapped
> 800 identified
767 cases mapped
> 1400 identified
100 cases mapped
846 cases mapped
> 1600identified
2008
> 1000 cases mapped
> 2000Identified
2009
Mapping Foresight
Key Lessons+
Findings
Introducingnetworking (SNA) and systemicanalyses
intoForesight
(Foresight Ark)
2010-2012
MappingForesight
&Forecasting
IntroducingWild Cards &Weak Signals
(WI-WE)systems
+Web 2.0 scanning
+Bottom-upEvaluation
InnovationSystems
Our Mapping Foresight report revealed the extensive use of interdisciplinary approaches in futures research
So we need more systematic activities aimed at
anticipating, recommending and transforming futures
2nd messageThere are many ways
of shaping our future…
impact assessment
horizon scanningforecasting
foresight
strategic planning visioning
NEW
Foresight & Horizon Scanning (FHS) Process
ManagementFramework
S.M
.A.R
.T.E
.R.
Polic
y/S
trate
gy
Cycle
(Pop
per, 2
011)
1 2
3 45
We often customise our methodologies, frameworks and systems to support a wide range of futures research & innovation
activities
3rd messageWe have some tools to
support foresight & horizon scanning…
We use web 2.0 tools
iCommunity
iLibrary iOracle
iDelphi iBank iScaniNews
We combine various Horizon Scanning Strategies
Horizon ScanningStrategy 1
ILTD
Horizon ScanningStrategy 4
OLBU
Top-DownIn
war
d-Lo
okin
g Horizon ScanningStrategy 2
OLTD
Outw
ard-Looking
Horizon ScanningStrategy 3
ILBU
Bottom-Up
YOUR AREA OF CONCERN
We developed a fully-fledged framework
and a Web 2.0 system for mapping futures
So far…
969 files for
unregistered users
vs.
1061 filesfor
iKnow members
1700+members
in 80
countries
By 9.2.2012
Since Feb 2011
New iKnowFutures proposal submitted to the EC
The iScan is an advanced
strategic intelligence, foresight and
horizon scanning search engine.
A kind of “Issues Google”
1,000+ issues mapped against EC FP7 Themes,
FRASCATI, NACE sectors andGrand Challenges
Nomination1. source2. theme3. sub-theme4. references5. short name / headline6. abstractDescription7. manifestation8. potential implications9. importanceAnalysis10. filters11. main drivers12. risks & opportunities13. stakeholders’ actionsInterconnection14. Grand Challenges15. thematic relevance16. ERA relevance17. research-friendly
strategies18. RTD & STI policy
relevance
Nomination1. source2. theme3. sub-theme4. references5. short name / headline6. Abstract7. likelihoodDescription8. typology9. importanceAnalysis10. early indicators11. main drivers12. risks & opportunities13. stakeholders’ actionsInterconnection14. Grand Challenges15. thematic relevance16. ERA relevance17. research-friendly
strategies18. RTD & STI policy
relevance
Mapping Weak SignalsMapping Wild Cards
18 criteria
Key facts and
figures
700+ respondents
60 60 900+ ISSUES.
4000+ assessments to
60 Wild Cards
2500+ assessments to
60 Weak Signals
Delphi results on September 2011
Wild Cards Delphi
Wild Cards headline navigation panel
Wild Cards headline navigation panel
Comments & full preview
Description & Desirability
Short- & Long-term priority for policymaking
Importance for STI policy in Your Country & EU
Potential impacts on(in Your Country & the EU)
1- Physical infrastructure2 - Virtual infrastructure3 - Social welfare4 - Economy5 - Security6 - Policy & governance7 - Environment & ecosystems8 - STI systems
PreparednessERA relevance
Policy advice
Current signals indicating WI plausibilityFuture signals indicating WI plausibility
Analysis & Submission panels
Issueassessment
platform (iDelphi)
CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholars
AGR Emergence of new agricultural methods for coping with climate change
CAP Administration rather than results a priority
SEC No strict global rules on nuclear security
NUC Development of new materials
ENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world
SPA Privatisation of space flights
NAN Implantable electronics leaving no trace
SSH Concerns over socio-economic and humanities research "downgrade"
NUC Small-scale nuclear power plant operating
CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholars
CAP Administration rather than results a priority
SEC No strict global rules on nuclear security
ICT Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platform
ENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world
ICT Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications
AGR Bees be no more, less food than before
ENV Growing environmental legal class actions on no-win no-fee basis
ENV Emergence of secondary carbon financial vehicles
HEA Increasing Self-Medication
Weak Signa
ls
Top 10
Weak Signals for
UK
40%match
Suicide bombing in Stockholm
Growing privatisation of war
Nuclear power plants built in third world countriesScientists predict mobile phone viruses will become a serious threat
No strict global rules on nuclear security
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Physical infrastructures Virtual infrastructures
Social welfare Economy
Security Policy & governance
Environment & ecosystems Science, technology & innovation (STI) systems
Sec Pol
Sec Pol Eco
Sec Eco STISec
SecEnv
Ph-I
EcoVi-I
SoW
National Studies
Policy Alerts
Expert Interviews
ERA Toolkit
We promote knowledge transfer and
dissemination of key results
44 STI Policy Alerts => Research Recommendations
From farmer to consumer: Diversifying cropproduction and consumption.Overreliance on a few core crops (e.g. wheat) makes food production and consumption vulnerable to any type of disruption. Were a new wheat disease to develop it could have severe implications for food markets worldwide, which could have unforeseen consequences such as starvation, civil unrest and high food prices. There is a need to prepare for diversifying food production and consumption in order to avoid such consequences. Farmers need to be assisted in order to better diversify their crops and consumers should be made aware of a greater variety of food products…
New Horizon Scanning System delivering products & services which meet the needs of senior leaders and workforce planners in health & social care in the UK
Research Technology
DevelopmentNetwork
ed Innovati
on
The course is aimed at: sponsors of foresight projects foresight practitioners entrepreneurs senior managers company directors
Course fee The full residential fee is £1,950 per person fee includes all the course materials,
accommodation for five nights (June 26th to June 30th inclusive) and all meals.
Discount for early bookings and Colombian nationals This year we are offering a discount to participants whose application is received before
16th April. For applications received by this date the course fee will be reduced to £1,800 GBP. Colombian nationals will receive the same discount for registrations before 22nd May.
Registration Please use the downloadable registration form and return it to Lisa Gledhill by
fax to +44 161-275-0923 or email [email protected]
Course directors Prof Ian Miles Dr Rafael Popper Dr Ozcan Saritas
Foresight: Exploring the Future, Shaping the Present
A course for sponsors and practitioners of foresight
25th June - 29th June 2012