scoping foresight dr. michael keenan prest, university of manchester, uk [email protected]...
TRANSCRIPT
Scoping Foresight
Dr. Michael Keenan
PREST, University of Manchester, [email protected]
UNIDO Technology Foresight Course
Prague, October 2003
Outline
• What should you aim to do - why scoping is necessary
• Consideration of the various elements that need to be considered before embarking upon a foresight exercise
Why is scoping necessary?
• To assess current and past arrangements• To review and perhaps pilot foresight options• To assess requirements against capabilities• To establish the need for any new structures or
arrangements that will need to be put in place• To generate a blueprint for the exercise that uses
the most appropriate methods
Scoping is a process that carries its ownbenefits and responsibilities
Further points on scoping
• How is scoping carried out?
• Who is involved?
• When should it be done?
Target Audience
Starting Point
CONDITIONS MODULATORS
Desired Outcomes
Resources – Human,Financial, Time, etc.
Time HorizonPolicy Milieu &Socio-EconomicCulture
Methods
Participation – Nature, Extent& Frequency
Organisation & Management
Coverage
DEGREE OF CHOICE
Formal Products
Policy Intervention
Starting ‘levels’ for Foresight(Not mutually exclusive)
• Territorial: National (most visible), Sub-national (regional, city-region / municipality), Supranational (bilateral, multilateral, International Organisation), Global
• Domain: economic, social, environmental, technology, scientific discipline
• Alternative starting points: – Flows (e.g. rivers, pollutants, people, traffic, goods
and services, etc.); – Networks (e.g. people, organisations, infrastructures,
etc.); – Markets (e.g. goods, services, labour)
Desired Outcomes
• Rationales– What are the problems / challenges?
– How can foresight help?
– Relates to foresight’s ‘theory of action’
Rationales – why Foresight?
• Need to be clear on why Foresight is being embarked upon. This clarity should extend to the formulation of clear (and hopefully) widely shared objectives
• Rationales will vary according to:– The starting point of the exercise
– The expectations of the actors involved
• But remember: Foresight is no panacea and expectations should be realistic (especially first time around!!)
Why Technology Foresight?
• Growing importance of science and technology to economic competitiveness and social / environmental renewal – TF can be used to raise the profile of S&T in dealing with these issues
• Address ‘system failure’ – TF can be used to build and maintain horizontal linkages (networks) between scientists and technologists, business, government, and citizens
• Provide baseline data on current assets and capabilities (and the opportunity for benchmarking) with a view to strategic steering through awareness raising and prioritisation
Desired Outcomes
• Rationales– What are the problems / challenges?
– How can foresight help?
– Relates to foresight’s ‘theory of action’
• Objectives– Refers to higher and specific goals
– Their achievement should be verifiable
Objectives for national Foresight
• Rationales tend to underpin three general sets of objectives:
• Often more locally-specific objectives too• Objectives have tended to be oriented towards
S&T issues, although this is now changing (less techno-oriented at regional)
1) Creation of visions and/or priority-setting
2) Better wired innovation systems
3) Development of a ‘Foresight culture’
Desired Outcomes
• Rationales– What are the problems / challenges?– How can foresight help?– Relates to foresight’s ‘theory of action’
• Objectives– Refers to higher and specific goals– Their achievement should be verifiable
• Expected Outcomes– Outlined in rationales and objectives– How will we know these have been realised?– When can these be expected to materialise?
Target Audience
• Refers to those actors who are expected to act ‘in’ and ‘as a result of’ an exercise
• Their identity is dependent (to a large extent) upon the starting point and desired outcomes of an exercise
• Typically include:– Scientists and technologists (public & private)
– Policy makers
– Business decision makers
– Citizens and societal groups
Who should I get on board?
• This will depend upon:– The scope of your planned activities
– The social, economic and political ‘culture’
Possible Early TargetsSenior public officialsBusiness spokespersonsSenior scientistsOther respected figures from civil societyMinisters and other politiciansProspective sponsors
How to build momentum? (1)
• Often hidden & forgotten in accounts of Foresight - political processes of negotiation & bargaining
• Extent depends upon programme scope (and vice versa) - who needs to be on board?
• Range of rationales employed in forging alliances?
• Often sequential - who should be convinced first?
How to build momentum? (2)
• Importance of Foresight ‘champions’, often individuals - who are the likely candidates?
• Institutional support can also carry some of the burden
• Raising awareness more generally, e.g.– Forums, workshops, conferences and reports
– What role for the media, e.g. newspapers and journals, TV and radio, etc.?
– Role of training?
Policy Milieu
• Are policy and socio-economic practices open to foresight-type activities?
• Policy space and time• Review existing arrangements:
– What activities already exist in this area?– Who are the main players?– What value-added could Foresight provide?– How might Foresight ‘mesh’ with existing policies
and programmes?– Could Foresight ‘threaten’ the continuation of
certain activities in this area? Good/Bad??– Do you anticipate resistance and/or support?
Possible problems & objections
“You can’t predict the future”
Scientific serendipity
Fatalism
Inertia
Institutional competition
Disputes over the scope
Proof of concept
Costs
BroadPhilosophical
PracticalitiesDetails
Resources
• Foresight can be time-consuming and cost-intensive
• How long will the exercise take?– One-off exercise
– Annual activity
– Continuous activity
• How will the exercise be funded?
The importance of sponsorship
• Foresight ‘programmes’ can be large undertakings:– involve numerous tasks– possibly thousands of individuals mobilised
• Costs will vary, depending upon:– The scope and duration of your planned activities– General costs in the territory – UK/Hungary
example
• Commitment of sponsorship a prerequisite• Sponsorship both formal and informal
Formal sponsorship
• Sponsors can provide support for different parts of an exercise
• Governments are common sponsors of national exercise - often a single ministry
• But can be non-governmental sponsors• Prospects for private money to supplant public
funding?• Possibility for sharing of costs?• Possibility for leveraging funds from
international bodies?
Examples of formal sponsorship
Exercise SponsorDelphi Report Austria Federal Ministry of Science
and Transport
Norway 2030 Ministry of Labour and Govt Administration
French Key Technologies 2005 exercise
Ministry of Industry
German FUTUR project Federal Ministry of Education and Research
Dutch Biology Foresight Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences
Portuguese Engenharia e Technologia 2000
Three sponsors from business, science, and engineering
Swedish Teknisk Framsyn Three sponsors from industry and strategic research bodies
Informal sponsorship
• Wider less formal sponsorship is often the ‘life-blood’ of a Foresight exercise, e.g.– Participants’ time is often freely provided by their
employers – BUT notable exceptions
– As part of awareness raising and dissemination of findings, other bodies may produce reports, and host meetings, dinners, workshops, etc.
• Informal sponsorship should be acknowledged and never taken for granted
Resources
Need to be thought
about at every stage
of a Foresight exercise
Finance
Infrastructure
Human Resources
Time
Political
Cultural
Time horizon
• Typically between 5-30 years
• Should be beyond normal planning horizons
• Will be dependent upon things like the issues to be considered, and the needs of strategy and decision making
Examples of time horizon
Time Horizon
National Foresight Exercises
5 Years French Key Technologies
10 Years Netherlands Technology Radar,
Czech Foresight
15 Years Belgium, German FUTUR, Ireland, Spain
20 Years Portugal, Sweden, UK
> 20 Years Delphi Austria, Norway 2030, German Delphi studies
Coverage
• Again, dependent on earlier choices, especially objectives and orientation
• Orientation: Technology, Sector, or Societal (or a mix)?
• Choosing areas to cover• Level of aggregation• Horizontal integration• Rolling exercises
Participation (1)
• Nature – how are actors to be engaged in an exercise? what will they be expected to do?
• Extent – who is to be involved?
• Frequency – when will actors be invited to participate?
Participation (2)
• Simple Rule: involve those who are expected to act in light of the foresight exercise.
• May need to look further than this, e.g. for expertise, creative thinkers . . .
• Typical to involve spokespersons for various groups – but can they ‘speak’ for their groups?
• Paradox of institutional / creative thinking?• Resource constraints important to consider• Gate-keeping?
Frequency
Rea
ch
EXPERTHEARINGS
DISCUSSION FORA(virtual & real)
EXPERT PANELS &WORKING GROUPS
QUESTIONNAIRESCONSULTATIONDOCUMENTS
Seldom
Exclusive(focused)
Extensive(wide)
Frequent
Methods for different styles of Participation
Why are formal methods used?
• Aid visualisation of possible futures
• Systematic and transparent (if used properly)
• Can constitute ‘hybrid fora’ for interaction and communication between various actors
Overview of some common methods(Loveridge, 1996)
Combinations of methods
Expertise
Creativity
InteractionAlignment
Panels ConferencesImpactmatrix
Workshops
La prospective
Sciencefiction
Brainstorming
Scenariowriting
Essays
Delphi
Foresight methods
• Important criteria for choosing methods:– Participation
– Desired Outputs
– Resources (esp. time, money, and expertise)
– Quantitative/Qualitative data requirements
– Time horizon
– Methodological competence (often key factor)
– Suitability for combining with other methods (feeders and triangulation)
– Suitability for visualising the results
Organisation & Management
• Some common organisational forms:– Project team, often using external help
– Steering committee
– Working groups and panels
– Meetings, workshops, conferences
• Who sets up all of these? When and how?• Loose versus tight management? In other words,
centralisation versus distribution?• Monitoring arrangements? Rationale?• The need for contingency plans . . .
Duration (temporal)
Co
vera
ge
(sp
atia
l)
BIG BANGEXERCISE
Short
Narrow
Wide
Long
Organisation and Management (space vs. time)
Features: whole territory / domain covered, with hundreds (and perhaps thousands) engagedAdv: high profile; greater strategic scope in theoryDisadv: difficult to co-ordinate large-scale activities; problem of inter-organisational conflicts and rivalries?
Features: whole territory / domain covered, with hundreds (and perhaps thousands) engagedAdv: high profile; greater strategic scope in theoryDisadv: difficult to co-ordinate large-scale activities; problem of inter-organisational conflicts and rivalries?
Duration (temporal)
Co
vera
ge
(sp
atia
l)
ROLLING EXERCISE
BIG BANGEXERCISE
Short
Narrow
Wide
Long
Organisation and Management (space vs. time)
Features: continuous, moving from area to areaAdv: foresight becomes embedded practice; management is easierDisadv: difficult to obtain strategic overview across areas
Features: continuous, moving from area to areaAdv: foresight becomes embedded practice; management is easierDisadv: difficult to obtain strategic overview across areas
Duration (temporal)
Co
vera
ge
(sp
atia
l)
ROLLING EXERCISE
DEVOLVED EXERCISE
BIG BANGEXERCISE
Short
Narrow
Wide
Long
Organisation and Management (space vs. time)
Features: carried out with relative autonomy in distinct areas (domains, territories, etc.)Adv: focused upon issues of real interest to participants; localised action more likelyDisadv: capture by interest ‘elites’ that use the exercise to lobby for resources; difficult to obtain strategic overview; exacerbation of problems resulting from competing visions?
Features: carried out with relative autonomy in distinct areas (domains, territories, etc.)Adv: focused upon issues of real interest to participants; localised action more likelyDisadv: capture by interest ‘elites’ that use the exercise to lobby for resources; difficult to obtain strategic overview; exacerbation of problems resulting from competing visions?
Duration (temporal)
Co
vera
ge
(sp
atia
l)
ONE-OFF EXERCISE
ROLLING EXERCISE
DEVOLVED EXERCISE
BIG BANGEXERCISE
Short
Narrow
Wide
Long
Organisation and Management (space vs. time)
Features: focused upon single area, often by a single organisation or communityAdv: focused upon issues of real interest to participants; localised action more likelyDisadv: lack of visibility; inability to act strategically on areas that impact on exercise subject but that lie outside of it
Features: focused upon single area, often by a single organisation or communityAdv: focused upon issues of real interest to participants; localised action more likelyDisadv: lack of visibility; inability to act strategically on areas that impact on exercise subject but that lie outside of it
Formal Products (1)
• Tangible and intangible products associated with foresight
• Must often be ‘designed’ with intervention strategy in mind (especially target audience and outcomes desired)
• Different methods produce different products
Formal Products (2)
• Examples of tangible ‘products’ include:– Scenarios and Visions
– Baseline and benchmarking studies
– Critical technology lists
• Products should be attractive and marketed through, for example, reports, conferences, TV and radio, newspapers and journals, school and university curricula, etc.
Process benefits
• But a key output should be the ‘process’ benefits associated with TF, e.g.:– Networking and resultant horizontal linkages
– Commitment to guiding visions
– Adoption of long-term thinking and Foresight practices
• Perhaps the most desirable outcome is a ‘Foresight Culture’.– Difficult to achieve - should be a long-term aim
– Can be facilitated (in part) through training, the production of methodological guides, and ‘demonstrators’ of Foresight’s benefits
Policy Intervention
• Policy space and time• Passive or proactive strategy?• Dependent upon products of an exercise and
the degree of participation• Focused or wide-ranging?• Long-term undertaking?• Resource dependency
Expected Outcomes
• Outcomes is a ‘slippery’ concept– Vary across time and space
• When thinking about implementation, we need to move away from simplistic linear policy models
• Evaluation issue – technocratic and political agendas must be addressed
• Often a neglected topic when planning foresight activities
Some words of caution . . .
• All preceding elements are interdependent, so it is very difficult to isolate simple relations between them
• To exacerbate the challenge, possible choices for many elements are extremely versatile, e.g. scenario methods can be used in many different settings for many different purposes. Therefore, no recipe book is readily available, only guidance
• Resources (in their broadest sense) are the biggest determinant of the scale and scope (both spatial and temporal) of foresight
• Factors that are difficult to account for, e.g. personalities, institutional culture, etc. are often the key difference between success and failure
Summary
• Scoping is a necessary step of a foresight exercise, allowing a project plan to be drafted
• This session has set out a framework with a number of elements that need to be thought about and addressed
• The framework provides a starting point for you to design and organise a foresight exercise
Questions and Comments?
Dr. Michael Keenan
PREST, University of Manchester, [email protected]
UNIDO Foresight Course
Prague, October 2003