Foresight in Japan

Dr. phil. Kerstin CuhlsBonn, December 2008

iFQ-Conference

Competence Centers of Fraunhofer ISI

Policy and RegionsBusiness Areas:• Policy and Evaluation• Regions and Clusters• Innovation Indicators

Regulation and InnovationBusiness Areas:• Regulation• Standardization

Energy Policyand Energy Systems Business Areas:• Energy and Climate Policy• Energy Efficiency• Renewable Energies• Energy Economy

Sustainability and Infrastructure Systems Business Areas:• Water Management• Transportation Systems• Systemic Risks• Sustainability Innovations

and Policy

Industrial and Service InnovationsBusiness Areas:• Process Innovations• Industrial Services• Networks and

Location Management

Innovation and TechnologyManagement and Foresight

Business Areas:• Foresight and Futures Research• Management of Innovations and Technologies• Strategies for Material Technologies

Emerging TechnologiesBusiness Areas:• Biotechnology and Life Sciences• Innovations in the Health System• Information and

Communication Technologies• Economics of Emerging

Technologies

AgendaForesight in Japan: History

From The Fifth Japanese Delphi survey to the 8th Japanese Foresight

Challenges for the Japanese innovation system

"Use" of Foresight

Outlook

What is Foresight?Classical definition:

"(technology) foresight is the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging of generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits”

(Ben R. Martin, 1995)

1970

1980

1990

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2009

JapanSimilar Altered International

German DelphiⅠ

Japanese – German ComparisonFranceKorea〔1〕Japanese-German Mini-Delphi U.K.〔1〕

Australia

New Zealand

Austria

German Delphi Ⅱ South Africa ＡＰＥＣ

Hungary ＥＵ

Korea〔2〕 Sweden

U.K.〔2〕

Germany Futur I

China U.K.〔3〕

BMBF Foresight Process

Japanese 〔1〕

Japanese 〔2〕

Japanese 〔3〕

Japanese 〔4〕

Japanese 〔5〕

Japanese-German Comparison

Japanese-GermanMini-Delphi

Japanese 〔6〕

Japanese 〔7〕

Japanese 〔8〕

Japanese (9)

1990 German Unification1991 USSR Collapse

Genealogical tree of national foresight applications

1992 Germany starting national Foresight

and Fifth Japanese Forecast

1994–1995 Mini Delphi (parallel in Japan and Dt.)

2007 Eighth Japanese Foresight

1996–1998 Sixth Japanese Forecast

2001–2002 Seventh Japanese Foresight

Foresight in Japan/ NISTEP

1992 '93 '95 '98 2001 2007

Generations of Technology Foresight

1st

2nd

3rdFor S&T, industry/market, society

Participation of various stakeholdersin society

For S&T, industry/market, societyParticipation of various stakeholders

in society

For S&T, industry/marketParticipation of business people

For S&T, industry/marketParticipation of business people

For science and technologyBy scientists and engineersFor science and technologyBy scientists and engineers Source:

Kuwahara

What is Delphi?• Delphi is an expert survey in two or more "rounds".

• Starting from the second round, a feedback is given(about the results of previous rounds).

• The same experts assess the same matters once more- influenced by the opinions of the other experts

• important: anonymity

Expert Panels,100 Persons

14 Questionnaires/10.000 Adressees

1. Round4000 Persons

2. Round3000 Persons

Results, Analysis, Discussion...

Organisation of a Delphi Process

A B C D E F

How are the Japanese Topics generated

in a steering committeeby the organisers/ management teamby a brainstorming and then grouping and structuring

the generated topicsin workshops/ working groups

Topic Fields are altered from one Foresight to the next

Fields in the 5th Japanese Delphi

Environment

Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries

Manufacturing

Architectures and Building

Communication Technologies

Traffic

Medicine

Society, Culture and Technology

altogether 1150 topics

Materials and Processes

Electronics and Information Technologies

Life Sciences

Outer Space

Big Science

Marine and Earth Sciences

Resources and WaterResources

Energy

Analysis: Comparisons

(Japanese6th Delphi –

GermanDelphi '98)

Source: Cuhls/ Blind/ Grupp: Delphi '98

Germany Japan

Agriculture & Food

Impo

rtanc

e fo

r th

e ec

onom

y

Impo

rtanc

e fo

r th

e ec

onom

y

Plants which are specially cultivated for resistance to drought and salt and provide barriers to desertification are in practical use.

78,3 25

Cell fusion and gene technology will make possible the cultivation of new breeds of fish which are very suitable for fish farming due to their strong resistence to disease and fluctuations in water temperature.

93,8 56,3

The cloning of prize-winning, high-performance cattle by core transplantation is practised.

95,0 46,1

In order to achieve certain breeding goals (resistence to disease, fertility) in domestic animals, gene transfer to fertilised eggs or to early mammal embryos is practised.

91,3 44,4

Techniques are widespread, e.g. using microorganisms, which enable earth-bound phosphorus to be absorbed by cereals.

79,8 22,4

The use of transgenetic animals, into which genes that hamper or prevent the defensive reactions in xenotransplantations were transplanted, is widespread for the transplantation therapies of inner organs.

50,0 37,2

Some Topics from the 5th+6th Delphi

Wide range of possibilities, but have to be kept short, clear, and unambiguous.

Various micromachines which can move independently in the human body are applied in clinical use (e.g. for blood diagnosis and thrombosis therapy).Flexible, robust displays are available.Space factories are built to produce new materials, utilising high-vacuum and weightlessness.High-efficiency geometrical optics for analyses of radiating equipment, e. g. substances under the earth, using electron or positron storage rings with a radiation emittance under 1 m pGy are in use.

Analysis: Importance Index versus Time of Realisation

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990- 1995- 2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020-

Time of Realization

Impo

rtan

ce In

dex

Japan Germany

Source: Cuhls/ Blind/ Grupp: Delphi '98

Analysis: Roadmaps/ Scenarios

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2

Anz

ahl d

er F

rage

ngrundlegende Mechanismen beim Entstehen neuer Ideen im menschlichen Denkprozeß geklärt

unter Nutzung von Zehntausenden von Prozessoren Entwicklung von sehr großen KI-Systemen, die auf verteilten und kooperierenden Modellen basieren

Methoden der KI zur Entwicklung effizienter und robuster Software, die zur Skalierbarkeit großer Softwaresysteme und deren Transparenz wesentlich beiträgt

Mustererkennungstechnik, die komplizierte, photoähnliche, zweidimensionale Muster mit der Schnelligkeit eines Menschen lokalisiert

automatische Synthetisierung praktikabler Software-Programme aus ihren Spezifikationen

hochentwickelte universelle Sprachen, die Probleme in Text und Grafik darstellen

Geräte, die aus Büchern oder Dokumenten automatisch Zusammenfassungen oder Auszüge herstellen

maschinelles Übersetzungssystem zur Übersetzung wissenschaftlicher und technischer Dokumente

interaktives System mit Sprachein- und ausgabefähigkeiten in Echtzeit, das Zehntausende von Vokabeln beherrscht

Wissensbasen, die durch automatisches Lernen ihr Wissen vermehren

durch Standardisierung von Knowledge Representaton Languages (KRL) kürzere Entwicklungszeiten für universelle Expertensysteme

Informations-Retrieval-Systeme, die Daten oder Wissen aus verteilten Datenbanken eines weltweiten Computernetzwerkes in wenigen Minuten sammeln, ohne daß der Benutzer den Ort der Datenbank spezifiziert

elektronische Bibliothek mit Zugriff auf Bücher und Dokumente per Computernetzwerk von zu Hause aus

Deutschland Japan

Source: Cuhls/ Breiner/ Grupp: Mini-Delphi 1995

Delphi No 7Information and communications

Electronics

Life Science

Health and medical care

Agriculture, forestry, fisheries and food

Marine science and earthscience

Space

Resources and energy

Environment

Materials and Processes

Manufacturing

Distribution

Business and management

Urbanization and construction

Transportation

Services

altogether 1065 topics

Delphi No 8Again for the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, MEXT, (Monbukagakusho)

NISTEP together with the Institute for Future Technologies

Time Horizon: 15 resp. 30 years

New aims and new methods

1. Examining the social and economic needs

2. Survey on science and technological fields that are developingrapidly

3. Development of scenarios for the most important fields of science and technology

4. Delphi survey

Results included in the new 5 years plan for S&T

4 pillars in the 8th Delphi

social and economic needs

Rapidlydeveloping fields

Development of scenarios

Delphi

Participation of Persons from „society“

like the German „Futur“ Database

Centred on persons

with limits

Assessments withexpert surveys

consensus (or not)

Recommen-dations

concerning(new) S&T

ObjektiveObjektive,,ExtrapolativeExtrapolative

SubjectiveSubjectiveNormativeNormative

BibliometricBibliometricAnalysisAnalysis

Delphi SurveyDelphi Survey

Scenario AnalysisScenario Analysis

SocioSocio--economiceconomic

Needs Needs AnalysisAnalysis

ScienceScience(Basics)(Basics)

TechnologiesTechnologies(Applications)(Applications)

SocietySociety(Impacts)(Impacts)

Delphi No 8

Information and Communications

Electronics

Life Science

Health, Medical Care and Welfare

Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries and Food

Frontiers

Energy and Resources

Environment

Nanotechnology & Materials

Manufacturing

Industrial Infrastructure

Social Infrastructure

Social Technology

8th Foresight, Bibliometrics: Proteomics

104397

1022

1050

1173

1674

1738

2679(651cites)

2683

2721

2751

2763

2780

3032

3865

3866

3879

3928

4151

4203

4335

4676

4682

4699

47154898

5431

5462

5764

5780

Hardware development for mass Hardware development for mass spectrometry, Software development spectrometry, Software development for data and information processingfor data and information processing

ProteomeProteome analysisanalysis

Function analysis on Function analysis on genes and proteinsgenes and proteins

Dynamic analysis of proteins by 2D Dynamic analysis of proteins by 2D electrophoresis and proteinelectrophoresis and protein--arrayarray

Quantitative analysis of protein complexes using mass spectrometry

8th Foresight: Examples of Selected Research Areas

PhysicsNeutrino StudyQuantum Computer

ChemistryInorganic/Organic Hybrid MaterialMesoporous Materials and NanowiresBiomaterials (Biomedical Materials)

Life scienceAlzheimer's DiseaseProteomicsRNAi (RNA interference)

Social scienceIT-based Organizational Management/Knowledge ManagementCommunity development and Network under Globalization

138

139

148

158164

165

170

172

176

177

187

188

191

198

201

216

230

237

240

249

256

275316

338

339

407

422

475

515

517

569

644

722

737

791

829832

938

1067

137

143

166

167194

196

197

245

554582

594694

Relative position of 51 Research Areas

Example from the Japanese 8th Foresight

Example from the Japanese 8th Foresight

Example from the Japanese 8th Foresight

Example from the Japanese 8th Foresight

Policy Implications

integrating the results of the Foresight activitiesinto policy planning

taking the needs perspective into account

informing policy-makers at different levels moredirectly than before

aim of being more strategic

Change in the organisation inside NISTEP - the Science and Technology Foresight Center

Center called Science and Technology Foresight Center

in Japanese a bit different: Kagaku Gijutsu Dookoo Kenkyuu Sentaa

Organisation:

General Unit

Life Science and Medical Research Unit

Information and Communications Research Unit

Environment and Energy Research Unit

Materials and Manufacturing Technology Research Unit

Major Activities

Collection and analysis of information on science and technology trends through expert networks

Research into trends in major science and technology fields

Technology Foresight and S&T benchmarking survey

New Activities

Information of the Council for Science and Technology Policy, Cabinet Office

Newsletter

Foresight with Delphi studies - but broadened theagenda according to the new developments especiallyin Europe

Changes in the Japanese Innovation System

Changes in the Japanese Innovation System

new: CSTP with the Role of formulating STI Policy

regrouping of ministries

national research institutes: regrouped e.g. under the roof of theAIST

AIST: role more strategically oriented, more like intermediary

changes in the university administrative system

new player: Intellectual Property High Court

(New) Innovation Policy?Policy Papers and Approaches

established: Basic Plans

established: White Books

established: Strategic Guidelines and Papers

new: strategic groups and strategy papers for CSTP

set directions and priorities

describe the framework conditions

(New) Innovation Policy?Policy Papers and Approaches

established: Basic Plans

established: White Books

established: Strategic Guidelines and Papers

new: strategic groups and strategy papers for CSTP

set directions and priorities

describe the framework conditions

Japans ambitious goals

• Innovation 2025: global leader in innovation

• Vision 2050: „Nation with Dignity“, „Trust of Asia“

⇒ coordinated restructuring of innovation system

⇒ high R&D investment

⇒ strengthening basic research

⇒ strategic priorities: BT, ICT, NT, environment technologies

⇒ more public private partnerships (PPP)

⇒ internationalization

Outlook: (European and) Japanese Policies

Will they be successful?

Will they be continuous activities?

Will they be enough?

Demographic Change, Climate Change…

WE ARE ALL IN THE SAME BOAT – ESPECIALLY JAPAN AND GERMANY FACE SIMILAR CHALLENGES

Outlook: Foresight in Japan

Foresight will go on

2009 and beyond

Foresight no. 9 just starting