forecasting ozone within stratospheric intrusions
TRANSCRIPT
Forecasting Ozone within Stratospheric
Intrusions
Brad Pierce
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR
Western U.S. TEMPO Early Adopters Workshop, April 10-11, 2018, Fort Collins, CO
NOAA provides global and regional chemical transport model and trajectory
forecasts of stratospheric ozone intrusions to federal, state and local air quality
management agencies to aid in determining whether elevated surface ozone levels
are due to local ozone production or were a natural occurrence
NOAA Operational Products:
National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
GFS provides 0.25x0.25 degree 5 day ozone forecasts (simple stratospheric Prod/Loss only)
initialized with analyses using SBUV-2 profile (currently not assimilated) and OMI total
column O3 retrievals
NCEP/CPC Contact: Craig Long ([email protected])
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_int/
GFS 48hr FX initialized at 00Z on 04/09/2018 valid at 00Z on 04/11/2018
NOAA Research Products:
Real-time Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS) provides full chemistry (extended
CB4+Stratospheric ClOx/BrOx/GOCART) 1x1 degree 4 day chemistry and aerosol
forecasts initialized with analyses using MLS stratospheric ozone profiles, OMI cloud
cleared total column O3, MODIS Terra and Aqua AOD, and fire detection
RAQMS Contact: Brad Pierce ([email protected])
RAQMS 60hr FX initialized at 12Z on 04/08/2018 valid at 00Z on 04/11/2018
http://raqms-ops.ssec.wisc.edu/index.php (Pacific Sector) http://raqms.ssec.wisc.edu/ (CONUS)
NOAA Research Products:
Rapid Refresh with Chemistry (RAP-Chem) provides full chemistry (RACM
MOSAIC/VBS) 13km resolution 48 hour chemistry and aerosol forecasts using RAQMS
real-time forecasts for LBC
RAP-Chem Contact: Steve Weygandt ([email protected])
RAP-Chem 48hr FX initialized at 00Z on 04/09/2018 valid at 00Z on 04/11/2018
https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAPchem/
NOAA Research Products:
Infusing satellite Data into Environmental air quality Applications-International (IDEA-I)
provides SI trajectory forecasts initialized from AIRS and CrIS Dual-Regression Ozone
and watervapor retrievals (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/imapp/ideai_ozone_v1.0.shtml)
IDEA-I SI Contact: Kathy Strabala ([email protected])
IDEA-I 48hr SI FX (right) initialized at 09Z on 04/09/2018 (left) valid at 00Z on 04/11/2018
http://smoke.ssec.wisc.edu/idea-i-ozone-live-test/index.php
Case Study: April 3, 2018
Email from Richard Payton (US EPA)
date: Wed, Apr 4, 2018 at 9:43 AMsubject: Highest O3 so far in 2018 in the Rockies: 66 ppb 8-hour avg at Gothic April 3, 2018
Suspected intrusion over the Rockies the past two days; zero Zulu today (6:00 pm MDT last night) has it over Nebraska/Iowa by evening in the NOAA mapping. (not archived, so 0 zulutoday is the oldest map available, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_int/). RAQMS agrees with the 6:00 pm position. Gothic peaked with 75 ppb hourly ozone at 8:00 am (MST) yesterday. Rocky Mountain NP had 67 ppb at 4:00 am (MST); Price Utah hit 68 ppb at 1:00 pm April 2.
IDEA-I CrIS SI Trajectory Forecast 09Z 04/02-00Z 04/04, 2018
RAQMS Pacific Sector 300K O3 Analysis/FX 12Z 04/01-12Z 04/06, 2018
RAQMS 24hr 106W O3/CO FX valid 12Z 04/03, 2018
Gothic, CO
Gothic, CO
RAP-Chem 48hr 500mb O3 FX initialized 00Z 04/03/2018
RAP-Chem 12hr Surface O3 FX initialized 00Z 04/03/2018
GEO-CAPE O3 OSSE Flow Chart
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Data Assimilation
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GEO-CAPE WRF-CHEM/GSI (3D-VAR) Regional/Urban
O3 OSSE Study – July 2011
• Control
• Synthetic OMI (using retrieval efficiency factors and apriori)
• Multiple Regression GEOCAPE UV synthetic retrievals
• Multiple Regression GEOCAPE UV-VIS synthetic retrievals
• All GEOCAPE experiments include:
1 hour cycling
Inflation of background error covariances near surface
Application of tangent linear observation operator (AK) in GSI enter loop
• Results compared to nature run integrated over atmospheric layers and at AIRNow surface
sites
TEMPO
Impact of Assimilation:
sfc-6km Results
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TEMPO
Impact of UVVISAssimilation: Rural Sites
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Impact of UVVIS Assimilation: Rural Sites
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Summary
• Current NOAA operational and research SI forecasting systems
rely on Microwave/UV (data assimilation) and infrared (trajectory
forecasts) satellite retrievals to constrain initial ozone forecasts
• TEMPO UV-Vis ozone retrievals should provide improved
constraints on ozone the lower troposphere and improved (hourly)
sampling over CONUS