Forecasting FTES Using a Yield Projection Model

Presented at the 2009 RP/CISOA ConferenceTahoe City, CA: April 27, 2009

Sam Ballard, Research AnalystDaniel Miramontez, Research AnalystSan Diego Community College District

San Diego Community College District

Enrollment

• FTES for 2007-08 = 41,925– College Total = 31,938– Continuing Education Total = 9,987

• Number of sections offered at colleges in 2007-08 = 11,132

• Duplicated Headcount = 397,615• 3.6% increase in Fall 2008 growth

Office of Institutional Research & Planning Organizational Chart

Office of Institutional Research & Planning Scope of Work

Research and Information for:• Program and services– Program review reports (i.e., EOPS, TRIO, etc.)

• External accrediting agencies– Accreditation self-study reports for WASC/ACCJC

• Accountability– ARCC report

• Planning and decision-making process – Productivity and projection reports (i.e. FTES)

FTES Yield Projection Model

• Yield Model– Adjusts to the number of sections being offered in

the current term– Takes the previous yields multiplied by the current

sections being offered

Purpose

• Primary function of the FTES Yield Projection Model– Manage growth and enrollment

• establish growth targets– Budget development

• budget guidelines • Who uses the information– Chancellor– College Presidents– Vice Chancellors

• Instruction, Student Services and Business Services• FTES Yield Projection Model Pilot Testing– Last 3 years (06 07, 07 08, 08 09)

Method

• Start with FTES file from comparable term from previous year

• Make exclusions– i.e. cancelled sections, non-residents

• Total by different variables– i.e. accounting method, subject, course number

• Calculate number of sections per course– i.e. 27 sections of PSYC 101

Method Cont.

• Calculate FTES for the total number of sections– 100.35 FTES for 27 sections

• Calculate yield by dividing total FTES by the number of sections– i.e. 100.35/27 = 3.72 FTES per section

Method Cont.

• Now get file with current sections offered• Aggregate the number of sections offered– Current term is offering 20 sections of PSYC 101

• Match prior year’s yields to current term– Unique ID (PSYC101)

• Multiply number of current sections by previous year’s yield– i.e. 20 sections * 3.72 yield = 74.4 FTES

Method Cont.

• Adjustments– Change in number of sections– CT – ((CT-PT)/PT)– Multiply adjusted sections by .99

• Increase Yields– Yield can be adjusted according to current trends– yield + 0.10

Results

• In the past three years we projected spring during fall– Spring 2006 to 2007• The projection was off by 243 FTES• -1.81% error

– Spring 2007 to 2008• The projection was off by 654 FTES• -4.78% error

Results Cont.

– Spring 2008 to 2009• The projection was off by 605 FTES• -4.44% error• Data as of 4/8/09

Discussion

• Limitations– Can only be calculated when the schedule is ready– New courses are given a marginal mean– Only used for three years

• Possible Improvements– Add factors

• unemployment rate• fill rates• physical improvements• % increase from term

Worksheet Exercise!

Discussion Questions

• What do you see as other limitations of this model?

• What are other ways to improve this model?

• How does this model compare to other projection models?