forecast users meeting reading, 15-17 june 2005 ecmwf medium range forecasts and products model...
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Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
ECMWF medium range forecasts and products
Model changes (Medium Range)
Forecast performance
New products/ Future developments
F. Lalaurette, ECMWF, Met’Ops
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Changes to the medium range forecasting system 29 June 2004: Cy28r2 (early delivery suite)
By shifting the 12h 4Dvar data assimilation window by 6h, and running an early additional, uncycled 6h 4Dvar, operational products are disseminated around 4h earlier without any noticeable impact on the forecast quality.
29 September 2004: Cycle 28r3
Revised convection scheme numerics and calling of the cloud scheme , use of tangent linear and adjoint of vertical diffusion in the 1st minimization of 4D-Var , Reduction of radiation frequency to 1 hour in the high-resolution forecasts , Improved numerics of surface tile coupling
New Radiative Tranfer code (RTTOV-8) , minor revisions to ATOVS and AIRS usage , assimilation of MSG clear-sky radiances, of GOES 9 BUFR AMVs and of SCIAMACHY ozone products from KNMI , Correct error in AMSU-B usage over land , Activate EARS data
Blacklist SYNOP humidity data at local night time , Increased use of radiosonde humidity: use RS90 to -80C, RS80 to -60C, other sensors to -40 C. Proper cycling of the assimilation of the wave altimeter and land surface data (FG moved from 00 and 12 UTC to 06 and 18 UTC)
EPS Gaussian sampling for extra-tropical singular vectors, instead of selection and rotation, revision of tropical cyclones (TC) perturbations (extension from 25 S 25 N to 40 S 40 N, orthogonalisation with respect to extra-tropical singular vectors, optimisation regions based on predicted TC tracks from previous EPS run)
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Changes to the medium range forecasting system 7 October 2004
Monthly forecasts are run operationally on a weekly basis (Thursdays).
9 November 2004:
All four BC-project analyses use background fields generated from the latest operational 4D-var analysis
16 March 2005:
Tropical Cyclone tracks from the Deterministic and EPS forecasts are disseminated on the GTS in BUFR format;
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Changes to the medium range forecasting system 5 April 2005: Cy29r1
New moist boundary layer scheme (more stratocumulus clouds in subtropical highs and more low level clouds in some extratropical winter conditions);
Wavelet formulation introduced in the representation of background error statistics (Jb), the tuning of which has been based on Data Assimilation ensemble runs;
Revised use of surface pressure observations: METAR are activated; all surface pressure data are subject to an adaptative bias correction; observation error are reduced; PAOB observations are not used any more;
MODIS winds from AQUA are activated (only TERRA before); AQUA winds observation error is reduced; 10 AIRS channels are blacklisted (pb strato. Humidity);
Bugfix in the first time step of the semi-Lagrangian treatment of the physics was fixed; snow cover tile coupling has been revised; a new dissipation source function has been introduced for the oceanic wave modelisation;
several technical implementation for the assimilation of rain, of GPS data and for the variational bias correction of satellite radiances introduced but not activated
Nonlinear Normal Mode Initialisation for the EPS has been discontinued.
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
ECMWF medium range forecasts and products
Model changes (Medium Range)
Forecast performance
Long term evolution
Winter performance
Tropical Cyclones and Heavy Rain
New products/ Future developments
F. Lalaurette, ECMWF, Met’Ops
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
EPS spread/ Error
12UTCEurope Lat 35.0 to 75.0 Lon -12.5 to 42.5
500hPa GeopotentialTime series curves
MAR2005
APR MAY JUN0
20
40
60
80
100
120
ENSTD T+24 Mean forecast
ENSTD T+48 Mean forecast
ENSTD T+144 Mean forecast
ENSMN T+24 Root mean square error forecast
ENSMN T+48 Root mean square error forecast
ENSMN T+144 Root mean square error forecast
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
EPS spread/ Error
12UTCN.hem Lat 20.0 to 90.0 Lon -180.0 to 180.0
500hPa GeopotentialTime series curves
MAR2005
APR MAY JUN0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
ENSTD T+24 Mean forecast
ENSTD T+48 Mean forecast
ENSTD T+144 Mean forecast
ENSMN T+24 Root mean square error forecast
ENSMN T+48 Root mean square error forecast
ENSMN T+144 Root mean square error forecast
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Time series (N.Extratropics)
N.HEM LAT 20.000 TO 90.000 LON -180.000 TO 180.000
ANOMALY CORRELATION FORECAST
500hPa GEOPOTENTIAL
ECMWF FORECAST VERIFICATION 12UTC
Forecast Day MA = 12 Month Moving Average
19801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320044.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
SCORE REACHES 60.00
SCORE REACHES 60.00 MA
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Time series (Europe)
EUROPE LAT 35.000 TO 75.000 LON -12.500 TO 42.500
ANOMALY CORRELATION FORECAST
500hPa GEOPOTENTIAL
ECMWF FORECAST VERIFICATION 12UTC
Forecast Day MA = 12 Month Moving Average
19801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320044
5
6
7
8
9
10
SCORE REACHES 60.00
SCORE REACHES 60.00 MA
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Winter 2005 vs 1998-2004 (Europe, Z500, ANC)0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Forecast Day
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160MDATE = 20041201 TO 20050228
AREA=EUROPE TIME=12 MEAN OVER 90 CASES
ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR FORECAST
500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL
FORECAST VERIFICATION 2004-20052003-20042002-20032001-20022000-20011999-20001998-19991997-1998
MAGICS 6.9.1 leda - mom Fri Mar 11 03:41:51 2005 Verify SCOCOM
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Forecast Day
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100%DATE = 20041201 TO 20050228
AREA=EUROPE TIME=12 MEAN OVER 90 CASES
ANOMALY CORRELATION FORECAST
500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL
FORECAST VERIFICATION 2004-20052003-20042002-20032001-20022000-20011999-20001998-19991997-1998
MAGICS 6.9.1 leda - mom Fri Mar 11 03:41:51 2005 Verify SCOCOM
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Winter 2005 vs 1998-2004 (ET NH, Z500, ANC)0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Forecast Day
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140MDATE = 20041201 TO 20050228
AREA=N.HEM TIME=12 MEAN OVER 90 CASES
ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR FORECAST
500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL
FORECAST VERIFICATION 2004-20052003-20042002-20032001-20022000-20011999-20001998-19991997-1998
MAGICS 6.9.1 leda - mom Fri Mar 11 03:41:51 2005 Verify SCOCOM
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Forecast Day
40
50
60
70
80
90
100%DATE = 20041201 TO 20050228
AREA=N.HEM TIME=12 MEAN OVER 90 CASES
ANOMALY CORRELATION FORECAST
500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL
FORECAST VERIFICATION 2004-20052003-20042002-20032001-20022000-20011999-20001998-19991997-1998
MAGICS 6.9.1 leda - mom Fri Mar 11 03:41:51 2005 Verify SCOCOM
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Winter 2005 vs previous wintersT511 vs EPS Mean (Europe, T850, Day 7)
19851986
19871988
19891990
19911992
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
2005
Year
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Fre
qu
en
cy o
f o
ccu
rre
nce
ANCF < -40%-40 to -10-10 to 1010 to 2020 to 3030 to 4040 to 5050 to 6060 to 7070 to 8080 to 90ANCF > 90 %
FORECAST VERIFICATION - EUROPE - OPERANCF T 850 Step 168 1201 - 0228
19851986
19871988
19891990
19911992
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
2005
Year
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Fre
qu
en
cy o
f o
ccu
rre
nce
ANCF < -40%-40 to -10-10 to 1010 to 2020 to 3030 to 4040 to 5050 to 6060 to 7070 to 8080 to 90ANCF > 90 %
FORECAST VERIFICATION - EUROPE - ENSMNANCF T 850 Step 168 1201 - 0228
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Gains - ECMWF(Z500 cumulated skill – ref. is average from other centres)
09-08-200308-11-2003
08-02-200409-05-2004
08-08-200408-11-2004
07-02-200509-05-2005
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
24
72
120
Z 500 EUROPE OPER GAINS vs BRAKL WASHN OFFNB MONTL TLOUS TOKYO 20030610 - 20050609 (REF)
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Gains - Exeter (Z500 cumulated skill – ref. is average from other centres)
09-08-200308-11-2003
08-02-200409-05-2004
08-08-200408-11-2004
07-02-200509-05-2005
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
24
72
120
Z 500 EUROPE EXETER GAINS vs OPER WASHN OFFNB MONTL TLOUS TOKYO 20030610 - 20050609 (REF)
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Gains - NCEP(Z500 cumulated skill – ref. is average from other centres)
09-08-200308-11-2003
08-02-200409-05-2004
08-08-200408-11-2004
07-02-200509-05-2005
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
24
72
120
Z 500 EUROPE WASHN GAINS vs OPER BRAKL OFFNB MONTL TLOUS TOKYO 20030610 - 20050609 (REF)
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Gains - DWD (Z500 cumulated skill – ref. is average from other centres)
09-08-200308-11-2003
08-02-200409-05-2004
08-08-200408-11-2004
07-02-200509-05-2005
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
24
72
120
Z 500 EUROPE OFFNB GAINS vs OPER BRAKL WASHN MONTL TLOUS TOKYO 20030610 - 20050609 (REF)
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Predictability variations (courtesy M. Köhler and A. Ghelli)
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Waves vs other centres (Courtesy J. Bidlot)
J97 a j o J98 a j o J99 a j o J00 a j o J01 a j o J02 a j o J03 a j o J04 a j o J05
months
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
SI
(%)
SCATTER INDEX FOR W AVE HEIGHT (3 month running average (+-1))
ECMWF t+096ECMWF t+048ECMWF t+000
UKMO t+096UKMO t+048UKMO t+000
FNMOC t+096FNMOC t+048FNMOC t+000
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
New web pages (TCs)
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
2003-2004 TC history
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions01
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions02
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions03
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions04
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions05
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions06
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions07
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions08
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions09
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions10
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions11
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions12
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
TC Verification 2004 (Atlantic ocean)
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)
0
49
98
147
Ca
ses
Sample Size
oper ctrl eps
Period: 2004080112 to 2004102900Tropical Cyclones: Atlantic Ocean
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)
100
200
300
400
500
km
Direct Position Error
oper ctrl eps
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)
20
30
40
hP
a
Core Pressure Error
oper ctrl eps
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
km
Cross Track Error
oper ctrl eps
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
kmAlong Track Error
oper ctrl eps
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
TC Verification (2004, all basins)
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)
484
726
968
Ca
ses
Sample Size
oper ctrl eps
Period: 2004010100 to 2004120600Tropical Cyclone Deterministic Verification
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)
103
206
309
412
515
km
Direct Position Error
oper ctrl eps
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)
12
18
24
30
36
hP
a
Core Pressure Error
oper ctrl eps
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)
-17
0
17
34
51
km
Cross Track Error
oper ctrl eps
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)
-220
-176
-132
-88
-44
kmAlong Track Error
oper ctrl eps
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
TC Verification (2003, all basins)
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)
174
348
522
696
Ca
ses
Sample Size
oper ctrl eps
Period: 2003010612 to 2003123112Tropical Cyclone Deterministic Verification
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)
121
242
363
484
605
km
Direct Position Error
oper ctrl eps
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)
5
10
15
20
25
30
hP
a
Core Pressure Error
oper ctrl eps
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)
-28
-14
0
14
28
42
km
Cross Track Error
oper ctrl eps
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)
-300
-240
-180
-120
-60
kmAlong Track Error
oper ctrl eps2004 vs 2003:•Reduced gap T255 vs T511•Except for pressure?
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
TC Probabilities verification
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Forecasted probability
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Observ
ed fre
quency
Reliability
0 20 40 60 80 1000
20
40
60
80
100
August 2003 to October 2003 August 2004 to October 2004
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1FAR
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
PO
D
>=0%
>0%
>10%
>20%
>30%
>40%
>50%
>60%>70%
>80%>90%
Probability of detection vs. False alarm ratio
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
August 2003 to October 2003 August 2004 to October 2004
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Extreme Forecast Index Verification (1% extreme events defined with respect to EUMETNET/ECSN Climate Atlas of Europe data)
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1False Alarm Rate
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Pro
babi
lity
of D
etec
tion
ROC curvesEFI(Annual verification, Min=20mm or 20/100 th of Upper Monthly Quintile)
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
6-30 54-78 102-126 ?
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1Probability of False Detection
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Pro
babi
lity
of D
etec
tion
Modified ROC curves
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
6-30 54-78 102-126 ?
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Probability >20mm verification(1% extreme events defined with respect to EUMETNET/ECSN Climate Atlas of Europe data)
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1False Alarm Rate
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Pro
babi
lity
of D
etec
tion
ROC curvesProb(Annual verification, Min=20mm or 20/100 th of Upper Monthly Quintile)
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
36 72 120 ?
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1Probability of False Detection
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Pro
babi
lity
of D
etec
tion
Modified ROC curves
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
36 72 120 ?
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Verification summary
Outstanding performance from previous years is confirmed
Some problems with low level clouds
First steps in verifying Severe Weather forecasts
Tropical Cyclone forecasts have improved significantly last year
• Still core pressure is underestimated• Slow biais• Some over-confidence in Strike Probability Maps; useful guidance
First steps towards EFI verification have been taken
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
ECMWF medium range forecasts and products
Model changes (Medium Range)
Forecast performance
New products/ Future developments
F. Lalaurette, ECMWF, Met’Ops
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Seamless system
The planned merge at increased resolution of the EPS and Monthly forecast system in 2005/06 will mean some re-thinking () of the product generation
Unified EPSgrams
More “weather-related” monthly forecast maps
“Monthly-forecast-like” hindcasts for the medium-range
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
2003-2004 TC history
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions01
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions02
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions03
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions04
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions05
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions06
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions07
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions08
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions09
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions10
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions11
F2003
M A M J J A S O N D J2004
F M A M J J A S O0
50
100
150
200
Ca
ses
Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h
WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions12
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Extended EPSgram (courtesy Mark Rodwell)
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Extended EPSgram (courtesy Mark Rodwell)
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
New Monthly forecast maps (courtesy F. Grazzini)
L
L
5.0m/s - -
13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 25 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: 2 m et r e t em per at ur e/ Sur f : 10 m t r v
- -
13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 19 Januar y 2005 500hPa geopot ent ial height
- -
13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 15 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: sunshine dur at ion
-8
-6
-4
-2
1
3
5
7
9
516
528
564
5.0m/s - -
13 Januar y 2005 12UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 2 Febr uar y 2005 Sur f ace: 2 m et r e t em per at ur e/ Sur f : 10 m t r v
- -
13 Januar y 2005 12UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 23 Januar y 2005 500hPa geopot ent ial height
- -
13 Januar y 2005 12UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 18 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: sunshine dur at ion
-8
-6
-4
-2
1
3
5
7
9
516
528
5.0m/s - -
13 Januar y 2005 19UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 10 Febr uar y 2005 Sur f ace: 2 m et r e t em per at ur e/ Sur f : 10 m t r v
- -
13 Januar y 2005 19UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 27 Januar y 2005 500hPa geopot ent ial height
- -
13 Januar y 2005 19UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 20 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: sunshine dur at ion
-8
-6
-4
-2
1
3
5
7
9
516
528
540
5.0m/s - -
14 Januar y 2005 2UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 19 Febr uar y 2005 Sur f ace: 2 m et r e t em per at ur e/ Sur f : 10 m t r v
- -
14 Januar y 2005 2UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 31 Januar y 2005 500hPa geopot ent ial height
- -
14 Januar y 2005 2UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 22 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: sunshine dur at ion
-8
-6
-4
-2
1
3
5
7
9
L
L
5.0m/s - -
13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- range I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 25 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: 2 met r e t emper at ur e/ Sur f : 10 m t r v
- -
13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- range I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 19 Januar y 2005 500hPa geopot ent ial height
- -
13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- range I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 15 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: sunshine dur at ion
-8
-6
-4
-2
1
3
5
7
9
516
528
564
5.0m/s - -
13 Januar y 2005 12UTC ECM WF Tim e- range I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 2 Febr uar y 2005 Sur f ace: 2 met r e t emper at ur e/ Sur f : 10 m t r v
- -
13 Januar y 2005 12UTC ECM WF Tim e- range I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 23 Januar y 2005 500hPa geopot ent ial height
- -
13 Januar y 2005 12UTC ECM WF Tim e- range I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 18 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: sunshine dur at ion
-8
-6
-4
-2
1
3
5
7
9
516
528
5.0m/s - -
13 Januar y 2005 19UTC ECM WF Tim e- range I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 10 Februar y 2005 Sur f ace: 2 met re t emperat ur e/ Sur f : 10 mt r v
- -
13 Januar y 2005 19UTC ECM WF Tim e- range I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 27 Januar y 2005 500hPa geopot ent ial height
- -
13 Januar y 2005 19UTC ECM WF Tim e- range I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 20 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: sunshine dur at ion
-8
-6
-4
-2
1
3
5
7
9
516
528
540
5.0m/s - -
14 Januar y 2005 2UTC ECM WF Tim e- range I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 19 Februar y 2005 Sur f ace: 2 met re t emperat ur e/ Sur f : 10 mt r v
- -
14 Januar y 2005 2UTC ECM WF Tim e- range I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 31 Januar y 2005 500hPa geopot ent ial height
- -
14 Januar y 2005 2UTC ECM WF Tim e- range I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 22 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: sunshine dur at ion
-8
-6
-4
-2
1
3
5
7
9
Day 5-11 Day 12-18
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
New Medium range Hindcasts (“à la Monthly”)
Running an additional EPS control suite in dynamical adaptation mode (48h forecast)
Initial conditions from ERA40 (1971-2000)
Use latest resolution/ physics
Same post-processing as for EPS (surface + a few pressure and PV levels)
Cost is only like adding six 10-days Control runs per day
Will allow a quick adaptation of the EFI to the increased EPS resolution in autumn, and an extension of the EFI (and other calibrated probabilistic products) to other parameters than rain, T2m and wind
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
New EPS Control climate (Reading, 15/1) (courtesy E. Zsóter)
-4 0 4 8 12 16 200
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
EPS forecast(black),2005.01.20 00 UTC; tstep=108hOld EPS climat (2003-2004-2005) is dashed bluecentered around the EPS forecast date (mmdd)
15=red, 31=blue days each year(1971-2000),New EPS climat with 1=yellow, 3=green, 7=orange,
READING
EPS Forecast
Current EPS climate
30-years 48h hindcasts (+/-15 days)
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Global EFI maps
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Tropical Cyclogenesis: 1) Karl
0° 0°
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
50°N50°N
70°W
70°W 60°W
60°W 50°W
50°W 40°W
40°W 30°W
30°W 20°W
20°W 10°W
10°W
CYCLONE LIFETIME : 20040916 TO 20040924OBSERVATION TRACKING FOR KARL (12L)
1 (TD) 2 (TS) 3 (STS) 4 (TYP/HUR)
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Tropical Cyclogenesis: 1) Karl 1st strike probability map (17/9)
0
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°Wtracks: black=OPER, green=CTRL, blue=EPS numbers: observed positions at t+..hProbability that KARL will pass within 120km radius during the next 120 hours
20040917 12 UTC
5
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Tropical Cyclogenesis: 2) Karl D5 forecast Valid 1709 12UTC
H
L
1016
1016
1016
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
40°W
40°W
OBSERVATION POSITION and STRENGTHSEVERE TROPICAL STORM KARL ( 12L ) Estimated Core Pressure 994 hPa
20040912 12UTC ECMWF FC t+120 VT: 20040917 12UTC Surf:msl/10v (Exp: 0001 )
1 (TD) 2 (TS) 3 (STS) 4 (TYP/HUR)
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Tropical Cyclogenesis: 3) Karl “Feature tracking” (no seed, Hodges, 1994)
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
80°W
80°W 70°W
70°W 60°W
60°W 50°W
50°W 40°W
40°W 30°W
30°W 20°W
20°W 10°W
10°W 0°
0°
Cyclone 1, number of tracks: 17Extratropical Cyclone Tracking: 20040915 00UTC
244872
96120
144
168
192
216
240
Observation (24/9)
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
FRANCES (25/8-7/9)
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
90°W
90°W 80°W
80°W 70°W
70°W 60°W
60°W 50°W
50°W 40°W
40°W 30°W
30°W
CYCLONE LIFETIME : 20040825 TO 20040907OBSERVATION TRACKING FOR FRANCES (06L)
1 (TD) 2 (TS) 3 (STS) 4 (TYP/HUR)
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Frances: 1st strike probability map (26/9)
-12
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W
tracks: black=OPER, green=CTRL, blue=EPS numbers: observed positions at t+..hProbability that FRANCES will pass within 120km radius during the next 120 hours
20040826 00 UTC
5
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Frances verification (D4 forecast)
H
L
L
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
40°W
40°W
OBSERVATION POSITION and STRENGTHTROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES ( 06L ) Estimated Core Pressure 1005 hPa
20040822 00UTC ECMWF FC t+96 VT: 20040826 00UTC Surf:msl/10v (Exp: 0001 )
1 - 1.9 2 - 2.9 3 - 3.9 4 - 4.9
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
FRANCES Feature tracking
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
90°W
90°W 80°W
80°W 70°W
70°W 60°W
60°W 50°W
50°W 40°W
40°W 30°W
30°W
Cyclone 1, number of tracks: 17Extratropical Cyclone Tracking: 20040826 00UTC
24
48
7296
120144
168
192
216
240
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
And more…
Data monitoring
New verification package
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005
[email protected](from 1.9.2005)
Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005