food supply scenarios - full
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
1/136
Victorian Food Supply ScenariosImpacts on availability of a nutritious diet
Kirsten Larsen, Victorian Eco-Innovation Lab, University of Melbourne
Dr. Graham Turner, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems
Prof. Chris Ryan, Victorian Eco-Innovation Lab, University of Melbourne
Assoc. Prof. Mark Lawrence, Deakin University
April 2011
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
2/136
Contacts
KirstenLarsen
PolicyResearchManager,VictorianEco-Innovation
Lab,FacultyofArchitecture,PlanningandBuilding,
UniversityofMelbournePh:+61383449189
Email:[email protected]
www.ecoinnovationlab.com
Prof.ChrisRyan
Director,VictorianEco-InnovationLab,Facultyof
Architecture,PlanningandBuilding,
UniversityofMelbournePh:+61383449175
Email:[email protected]
www.ecoinnovationlab.com
Dr.GrahamTurner
SeniorResearchScientist,CSIROEcosystemSciences
GPOBox284CanberraCityACT2601,Australia
Ph:+61262421653
Email:[email protected]
Assoc.Prof.MarkLawrence
Director,FoodPolicyUnit
WHOCollaboratingCentreforObesityPrevention,
DeakinUniversity
Ph:+61392443789
Email:[email protected]
Thisreport(andmoredetailedinformationfromtheproject)canbedownloadedfrom
http://www.ecoinnovationlab.com/research/food-supply-scenarios
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank VicHealth for their support of this project and the workshop
participants for their thoughtful contributions. We would particularly like to thank the following
individualsfortheirinvaluableadvice,feedbackanddetailedcomments.LeonSoste
FutureFarmingSystemsResearchDivision,
DepartmentofPrimaryIndustries
EmmaGreenhatch
FoodStrategyManager,DepartmentofBusinessand
Innovation
VeronicaGraham,KellyNevilleandMariannaPisani
PreventionandPopulationHealth,Departmentof
Health
PeterHouston
PrimaryIndustriesandResources,SouthAustralia
BrendanTatham
JulianCribbFTSE
Prof.AlbertMcGill
FoodSecurityDelegate,AustralianInstituteofFood
ScienceandTechnology(AIFST);Australian
Representative,FoodSecurityTaskForce,
InternationalUnionofFoodScienceandTechnology
(IUFoST).Citation:Larsen,K.,Turner,G.,Ryan,C.,&Lawrence,M.,(2011), VictorianFoodSupplyScenarios:
ImpactsonAvailabilityofaNutritiousDiet,VictorianEco-InnovationLab(UniversityofMelbourne),
CSIROandDeakinUniversity,Melbourne
Deakin University CRICOS Provider Code 00113B
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
3/136
Thiswell-balancedandexpertreportistimely.ItwillhelpshapeourwiderthinkinginAustraliaas
wetacklethenowurgent,andunavoidable,taskofreshapingsocialprioritiesandourmethodsof
productionandconsumptioninordertoachieveasustainablefuture-forthiscountryandfortheworld.
Foodsystemsarecrucialtohumanwellbeingandhealth,andareamajorpartofoureconomy.
Thesortofinnovativethinkingandexpertmodellingevidentinthisreportwillhelpustobring
ourfoodproductionandfoodchoices,inAustralia,backintobalancewiththelong-termneedsof
the environment - recognising also the now clear prospects of climate changeand declines in
energyandchemicalfertiliserinputs.
Prof.A.J.McMichael,NationalCentre forEpidemiology&PopulationHealth,ANUCollegeofMedicine,
BiologyandEnvironment,TheAustralianNationalUniversity
Australiaisarelativelyfood-securecountryinanincreasinglyfood-insecureworld.Aswemoveto
the peak in humandemand for food of the mid-century, essential food-producing resources of
water,land,oil,nutrients,technology,fishandstableclimateswillbecomeincreasinglyscarceand
costlyandthiswillimpactonAustralianfoodsystemsandnationalsecurityaswellasthoseof
theworldasawhole.InthisstudyKirstenLarsenandhercolleaguesexplorethesecriticalissues,
encouragingustotakewiseforethoughtandtimelyactioninordertoensureourfuturehealth,
wellbeingandsafetythroughfood.
JulianCribb,authorofTheComingFamine2010
Climatechangewillaffectfoodproduction,andweneedtofacethefactthatwhatweeatand
drinkislikelytochangewithlimitstoland,water,fuelandfertilisers.Thisreportencouragesusto
recogniseproblems,tothinklaterallyandplanourfutureinsuchawaysoastoachievethebestoutcomeforasmanypeopleaspossible.It'snotallbadsincethedietthatisbestforthehealthof
theplanetjusthappenstoalsobebestforthehealthofthepeople.
DrRosemaryStantonOAM,nutritionist
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
4/136
TableofContents
EXECUTIVESUMMARY ................................................................................................................................. I
1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................... 11.1 REPORTSTRUCTURE.....................................................................................................................................11.2 AIMSANDOBJECTIVES .................................................................................................................................21.3 SCOPE .......................................................................................................................................................2
1.3.1 ANutritiousDiet...............................................................................................................................21.3.2 FoodAvailability ...............................................................................................................................31.3.3 OtherElementsofFoodSecurity ......................................................................................................4
1.4 CONTEXT ...................................................................................................................................................51.4.1 ClimateChange ................................................................................................................................51.4.2 Oil .....................................................................................................................................................71.4.3 Fertilisers ..........................................................................................................................................91.4.4 Population ........................................................................................................................................9
2.
METHODOLOGY..................................................................................................................................11
2.1 FOODREQUIREMENTSFORANUTRITIOUSDIET ...............................................................................................112.2 QUALITATIVESCENARIODEVELOPMENT ........................................................................................................132.3 QUANTITATIVESCENARIOMODELLING..........................................................................................................14
2.3.1 TheAustralianStocksandFlowsFramework .................................................................................142.3.2 HistoryandPreviousUse................................................................................................................172.3.3 WorkingwiththeASFF:Tensions .................................................................................................182.3.4 WhataboutPrices? ........................................................................................................................18
3. RESULTS..............................................................................................................................................213.1 ESTIMATEDFOODREQUIREMENTSFORANUTRITIONALLYADEQUATEFOODSUPPLY...............................................21
3.1.1 Selectingfoodstorepresenteachfoodgroup................................................................................21
3.1.2 Selectingpopulationcategoriesforassessmentofnutritionimplications .....................................213.1.3 Determiningthenumberofrecommendedservesforeachfoodgroup ........................................213.1.4 Estimatingtheamountsoffoodstuffrequired ...............................................................................22
3.2 QUALITATIVESCENARIOSSTRUCTUREANDSTORYLINES .................................................................................243.2.1 IdentifyingDynamicsofChange.....................................................................................................243.2.2 Divergence......................................................................................................................................273.2.3 ScenarioDescriptions .....................................................................................................................28
3.3 QUANTITATIVESCENARIOS..........................................................................................................................333.3.1 TheBackgroundScenario ...............................................................................................................353.3.2 VariablesTranslatingtheScenarios ............................................................................................383.3.3 Adjustment.....................................................................................................................................403.3.4 TimetoTakeControl ......................................................................................................................47
3.3.5 DIY ..................................................................................................................................................543.3.6 ComparativeResults.......................................................................................................................62
4. DISCUSSION........................................................................................................................................674.1 CHALLENGESTOFOODAVAILABILITY.............................................................................................................67
4.1.1 Production ......................................................................................................................................674.1.2 MakingFoodAvailabletoConsumers ............................................................................................694.1.3 EasingorIncreasingTensions.........................................................................................................69
4.2 EMISSIONS,ENVIRONMENTANDRESOURCECONSTRAINTS ...............................................................................71
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
5/136
4.2.1 Land................................................................................................................................................724.2.2 WaterandEnvironmentalFlows ....................................................................................................744.2.3 GreenhouseGasEmissions.............................................................................................................754.2.4 Oil ...................................................................................................................................................774.2.5 Fertiliser(Phosphorus)....................................................................................................................78
4.3 ECONOMICSTRUCTURE ..............................................................................................................................794.4 VULNERABILITIES .......................................................................................................................................81
4.4.1 GlobalTrade...................................................................................................................................814.4.2 ExtremeWeatherEventsandNaturalDisasters ............................................................................824.4.3 Biodiversity&Biosecurity ...............................................................................................................824.4.4 Population ......................................................................................................................................83
4.5 OPPORTUNITIESTHESWEETSPOT .............................................................................................................834.6 AFINEBALANCEETHICS ..........................................................................................................................84
5. CONCLUSION,RECOMMENDATIONSANDFURTHERWORK.................................................................865.1 RESEARCH ................................................................................................................................................87
5.1.1 DevelopmentofMethodology........................................................................................................875.1.2 ResearchExtensionWhatNext?..................................................................................................88
5.2 POLICYIMPLICATIONS ................................................................................................................................895.2.1 InformingDecisionMaking ............................................................................................................895.2.2 SpecificPolicyTools........................................................................................................................90
REFERENCES...............................................................................................................................................91
APPENDIX1:ASFFINTERNALLOGIC ...........................................................................................................97
APPENDIX2:SCENARIOINFLUENCES .........................................................................................................98
APPENDIX3:ADDITIONALNATIONALRESULTS ........................................................................................102
APPENDIX4:FOODSURPLUSANDDEFICITGRAPHS .................................................................................105
APPENDIX5:WATERREGIONSINTHEASFF .............................................................................................118
APPENDIX6:PRIORITIESFORFURTHERMETHODOLOGYDEVELOPMENT .................................................119
ListofTables
TABLE2-1:NUMBEROFDAILYSAMPLESERVESNEEDEDTOACHIEVEANUTRITIOUSDIET .....................................13
TABLE3-1:ESTIMATEDFOODREQUIREMENTSFORANUTRITIONALLYADEQUATEFOODSUPPLY .........................23TABLE3-2:PRE-WORKSHOPDRIVERSANDDYNAMICSOFCHANGE ..........................................................................25
TABLE3-3:INCLUDEDANDEXCLUDEDFACTORS ..........................................................................................................34
TABLE3-4:BACKGROUNDSETTINGS ...............................................................................................................................35TABLE3-5:SUMMARYOFHIGH-LEVELSCENARIOSETTINGS ......................................................................................39
TABLE4-1:NETFOODAVAILABILITY..............................................................................................................................67
TABLE4-2:POTENTIALEFFECTSOFEXCLUDEDPARAMETERS...................................................................................70TABLE4-3:ADVANTAGESANDDISADVANTAGES...........................................................................................................70
TABLE4-4:COMPARISONOFSCENARIORESULTS .........................................................................................................72TABLE4-5:ACHIEVEDEMISSIONSREDUCTION(ON1990LEVELS)..........................................................................75
TABLE0-1:SCENARIO-BASEDPROJECTSCONSIDERED ................................................................................................98
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
6/136
ListofFiguresFIGURE1-1:FOODAVAILABILITYASACOMPONENTOFFOODSECURITY .....................................................................3
FIGURE1-2:IEAPROJECTEDWORLDOILPRODUCTIONBYTYPE(NEWPOLICIESSCENARIO) ..............................8
FIGURE1-3-AUSTRALIANPOPULATIONPROJECTIONS................................................................................................10FIGURE2-1:THEAUSTRALIANGUIDETOHEALTHYEATING.......................................................................................12
FIGURE2-2:SCHEMATICFLOWDIAGRAMOFMODERNECONOMY .............................................................................16FIGURE2-3:MAJORCOMPONENTSANDINFORMATIONFLOWSINTHEASFF..........................................................19FIGURE3-1-DRIVERSANDDYNAMICSFROMPARTICIPANTS......................................................................................25
FIGURE3-2:SCENARIOLOGICDIAGRAM .........................................................................................................................28FIGURE3-3:FEEDBACKPROCESSESINTHEASFF.........................................................................................................36
FIGURE3-4:OTHERFOODS(NOTADJUSTEDINSCENARIOS) ....................................... ............................................ .....38
FIGURE3-5:VICTORIANLANDUSE(ADJUSTMENT) ............................................. ............................................ .............41FIGURE3-6:VICTORIANELECTRICITYDEMAND/USE(ADJUSTMENT).....................................................................42
FIGURE3-7:VICTORIANELECTRICITYPRODUCTION(ADJUSTMENT).........................................................................42
FIGURE3-8:TRANSPORTFUELCOMBUSTION(ADJUSTMENT).....................................................................................43FIGURE3-9:INPUTEFFICIENCYVARIABLES ...................................................................................................................44
FIGURE3-10:GREENHOUSEGASEMISSIONS(ADJUSTMENT)............................................................................... HIN45FIGURE3-11:AUSTRALIANGREENHOUSEGASEMISSIONS(ADJUSTMENT)..............................................................46
FIGURE3-12:NETFOOD(ADJUSTMENT)........................................................................................................................47
FIGURE3-13:VICTORIANLANDUSE(CONTROL)..........................................................................................................48FIGURE3-14:VICTORIANELECTRICITYDEMAND/USE(CONTROL).........................................................................49
FIGURE3-15:VICTORIANELECTRICITYPRODUCTION(CONTROL).............................................................................49FIGURE3-16:TRANSPORTFUELCOMBUSTION(CONTROL) ....................................... ............................................ .....50
FIGURE3-17:GREENHOUSEGASEMISSIONS(CONTROL) ........................................... ............................................ .....52
FIGURE3-18:AUSTRALIANGREENHOUSEGASEMISSIONS(CONTROL)....................................................................52FIGURE3-19:NETFOOD(CONTROL)..............................................................................................................................54
FIGURE3-20:VICTORIANLANDUSE(DIY) ........................................... ............................................. ........................... 55
FIGURE3-21:VICTORIANELECTRICITYDEMAND/USE(DIY)..................................................................................56FIGURE3-22:VICTORIANELECTRICITYPRODUCTION(DIY)......................................................................................57
FIGURE3-23:PRIVATETRANSPORTENERGYUSEREDUCESWITHDENSITY............................................................57FIGURE3-24:TRANSPORTFUELCOMBUSTION(DIY)..................................................................................................58
FIGURE3-25:GREENHOUSEGASEMISSIONS(DIY)CUMULATIVE.........................................................................60
FIGURE3-26:AUSTRALIANGREENHOUSEGASEMISSIONS(DIY)..............................................................................60FIGURE3-27:NETFOOD(DIY).......................................................................................................................................61
FIGURE3-28:DIVERSIONOFFOODCROPSTOBIOFUELS(DIY).................................................................................62
FIGURE3-29:NETENVIRONMENTALFLOWS(ALL).....................................................................................................63FIGURE3-30:NETOILIMPORTVOLUME(ALL)............................................................................................................64
FIGURE
3-31:
NET
PHOSPHATE
IMPORT
VOLUME
(ALL
).............................................................................................65FIGURE3-32:GDPPERCAPITA(ALL) ...................................... ............................................. ......................................... 66
FIGURE3-33:NETTRADESURPLUS(DEBT)TOGDP(ALL) ............................................ .......................................... 66
FIGURE3-34:UNEMPLOYMENTRATE(ALL) .......................................... ............................................ ........................... 66FIGURE4-1:GREENHOUSEGASEMISSIONS(ALL) ........................................ ............................................ .................... 75
FIGURE4-2:HISTORICALANDFUTURESOURCESOFPHOSPHORUSFERTILISERS.....................................................79
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
7/136
ExecutiveSummary
i
ExecutiveSummary
There areresource allocationandmanagementdecisions beingmadenow inVictoria, andAustralia,
thatwill have significant implications for the flexibilityand options for our food supply in the next
decadesandforfuturegenerationsofAustralians.Thisprojectsetsoutaframeworkformoredetailed
investigationofsomeverycriticalquestions,bydevelopinganddemonstratingamethodologythatcan
beextendedtotestvariousoptionsforfoodsecuritypolicy.
Thisresearchexploreshowthesedecisionswillimpactonourabilitytoprovideareliablesurplusofthe
foods required for a nutritious diet, whilst providing for ongoing health of the environment, the
economy and ultimately the wellbeing of people and communities (both farming and urban
communities).
The Victorian Food Supply Scenarios project has been a 12-month research project funded by the
Victorian Health Promotion Foundation (VicHealth) through the Healthy Eating stream of their
ResearchInnovationgrants,providedtoresearchanewconceptormethodologyrelevanttothetheory,
policyandpracticeofhealthpromotion.
Theprimarypurposeofthisprojectwastodevelopanddemonstrateanewmethodology tolinkland
andresourceusewithavailabilityofanutritionallyadequatefoodsupplyforVictoriaspopulation.The
researchmadenewuseofanexistingphysicalmodeloftheAustralianeconomydevelopedbyCSIRO(oneoftheprojectpartners)totrackthecomplexinteractionoflandandresourcesystemsastheyaffect
theavailabilityof food.Theresearchwasundertakenwithin stricttimeandresourceconstraintsand
there was consequently a limit to the analysis of data sets and settings. The assumptions,
approximationsandgeneralisationsarenotedthroughoutthereport.
Thetensionsidentifiedthroughthisworkaresignificant,inspiteoflevelsofuncertaintyresultingfrom
theprojectconstraints.Theystronglysuggestthatasophisticatedandstrategicapproachtoresource
allocationisurgentlyrequired,ifthemultipleobjectivesoffoodsecurity,energysecurity,greenhouse
emissionsreductions,sustainableresourceuse,ahealthyenvironmentandaviableeconomyaretobe
achieved.Theoutcomesdonotprovideanyeasyanswers,orsuggestthatoneapproachtotheseissues
isclearlybetterthananother.
Context
Availabilityofsufficientfoodsforanutritiousdiet
Thisprojectisfocusedonfoodavailability: sufficientquantitiesoffoodofappropriatequality,supplied
through domestic production or imports (including food aid) (FAO 2011); this recognises that the
irreducible base of food security is the physical ability to provide for the nutritional needs of the
population. We use an indicator of net food availability i.e. how much of each food group under
investigationisproducedinVictoria/Australia,comparedtothatrequired.
Foodavailabilityisnecessary,butnotinitselfsufficient,toensurethatahouseholdorpopulationis
foodsecure.Thisanalysisdoesnotdiscountthecriticalimportanceofotheraspectsofaccesstofood
that affectsecurity, e.g.price,consumerpreferences,advertising,food safetyandso on,but theyareoutsidethescopeoftheresearch.
Itisassumedthatitispossibletoimportfood,andothercriticalresources,ifrequired;howeverrelative
levels of domestic sufficiency are compared under different scenarios. It is also assumed that food
producedisphysicallyavailabletoconsumersi.e.thatthesystemsfunctioneffectivelytodistributefood
(evenifthosesystemsoperatedifferentlyacrossthescenarios).
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
8/136
VictorianFoodSupplyScenarios
ii
Nowheretohide
There are four overarching drivers that shape this research: climate change; oil; fertilisers and
population growth. These drivers contextualise the challenges we face in securing food availability.
Whiletheseissuesmaynotbefullyinourcontrol,itisthedivergentstrategiesforourresponsethat
shapefuturescenarios.Inthisanalysiswehaveassumed:
Climate change is already occurring and is a result of human activity through the emission ofgreenhousegasesintotheatmosphere.Itwillintensifyinthestudyperiod,astheclimatesystemrespondstolevelsofgreenhousegasesthatarealreadyintheatmosphere.
Ambitiousactiontoreduceemissionsby2030isnecessaryandwilloccur. Australias oil production has peaked and increasing imports are required to meet increasing
demand.TheInternationalEnergyAgencysuggeststhatglobal(conventional)oilproductionpeaked
in2006(IEA2010).Theincreasingcost(energyandfinancial)ofextractingoilresourcesmeansthat
costs will rise significantly. This will drive substantial transformation of the economy, with
implicationsforthefoodsystem.
Increasingglobaldemand,andchallengestothesupply,offertilisers(particularlyphosphorus)willreduceavailabilityandincreasecost.
Globalpopulationgrowthwillcontinue,asitwillinAustralia.KeyMessages
Foodavailabilityiscomplexitiscloselylinkedwithresourceandlanduse,trade,employmentand
energyandwaterusage.Assessingormanagingfoodavailabilityrequiresacoherentassessmentofthe
interactionsofallofthesefactors.
Inthisproject,wehavedevelopedandtestedthreescenarios(describedinSection3.2anddepictedin
Figure3-2)toexplorefoodavailabilityandtoinvestigateitsinteractionwithpopulation,resourceuse
and the economy. One scenario, labelled as Adjustment, assumes free markets and high levels of
internationaltrade;Control,asthesecondscenario,assumesstrongpolicyandregulatoryintervention
in the market to ensure the domestic supply of core foods; the third, DIY, envisages a more
decentralisedfuturewithlight,mostlylocal,governmentintervention.
Thescenariosreflectdifferentstrategicapproachestotheissueoffoodavailabilityandcreatedivergent
sets of variables formodelling: energy demand, efficiency andsources; allocation of land andwater
resources;levelsofwasteandlosses;levelsofwaterandfertiliserefficiencyinagriculturalproduction;
andtransportpatternsandmodes.Keyfindingsareoutlinedbelow.
Allfoodsarenotcreatedequal
Byconsidering theneeds foranutritiousdiet,rather thanthedietastypicallyconsumed,thisproject
hasrevealedearlyandimmediatetensionsinavailabilityofthefoodsrequired.Anoverallsurplusof
foodproductsisnotthesameasproductionofanutritionallyadequatefoodsupply.1Resultsfromthe
analysisshow tensionsin providingfor anutritiousdiet, asdescribed insections3.3.3.6, 3.3.4.6and
3.3.5.6anddiscussedinsection4.1.Theseinclude: Australian production of fruit andvegetables already falls short of providingsufficient serves of
thesefoodstomeettherecommendedfoodintakepatterns.
Twoof thescenarios reallocate land fromone typeof production (grazing)to another(fruitandvegetables) in an attempt tomaintain sufficient production of required foods at a national and
1Nutritionalhealthrequiresbothadequateamountsoffoodtomeethumanenergyrequirementsandadequatevarietyoffoods
toprovidethediversityandamountsofnutrientsrequired.
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
9/136
ExecutiveSummary
iii
Victorian level respectively. Thisis successful inproviding fruit andvegetablesbutcreatesother
tensions,resultinginshortagesofdairy(by2030)andlamb(by2060).
Somefoodcropscanbeusedasbiofuels.Twoofthescenariosseediversionofcereals,sugarandoilcrops to1stgenerationbiofuels, withone producinga seriousconflictbetweenfood andfuel by
2030.
Inallscenarios,Victoriabecomesborderlineoranetimporterofcerealsby2030.Australiaretainsacerealsurplusto2030,butitisinsteadydeclineinallscenarios.
The project shows that under the expected future conditions (climate change, increasing
populationanddiminishingavailabilityofoil), thedomesticproductionofasurplusofrequired
foodsateitherVictorianorAustralianlevelmustnotbetakenforgranted.
Nosuchthingasafreelunch
Ultimately thesuccessfulprovisionof foodisdeterminedbythebio-physicalfactorsnecessary forits
production (land,soils, sunlight, nutrients, feed-stocks)andthe availability ofresourcesrequired for
organising production, processing and distribution. The scenarios test challenging, but realistic,
possibilitiesforchangetoavailability,allocationanduseofresources.Theseimpacton:
Useofland,waterandenergyresources; Productionanddistributioninfrastructure; Targetsforreductioningreenhousegasemissions; Levelsofimportrelianceforoilandfertilisers;and Settings for key economic indicators (i.e. GDP; unemployment and trade balance) that are
consideredrepresentativeofhealthyeconomicactivity.
The rationale and settings for each scenarioare described throughout section 3.3. Key settings and
findingsareoutlinedbelow.
Land:Productivelandareareducesinallscenarios,duetovaryingcombinationsandratesofdiversion
toforests(forcarbonsequestrationandbioenergy)andurbanlandexpansion.Thechangeoflanduse
fromirrigatedtodry-landproductionalsohasanimpact.
Water:Largereductionsinwaterextractionforirrigationfailtoavertnegativeenvironmentalflowsinkeyriversystems,intwooutofthethreescenarios(sections3.3.6.1and4.2.2).
The Victorian irrigation districts analysed (Gippsland andMurray) have negative environmentalflowsby2040-50 evenwith the greatly reduced extractions inAdjustment and Control. TheDIY
scenariohasa75%reduction,whichstabilisesandmaintainsenvironmentalflowsthroughoutthe
studyperiod,althoughMurrayisstilldeclining.
River systemswith negativeenvironmental flows forany periodof timeareunlikely to supportfoodproductioninthelongerterm.Itshouldbenotedthatthereducedextractionlevels,whilelarge,
arenotattheextreme(highclimatechange)levelthatCSIRO(2008)suggestedmayberequiredfor
theVictorianregionsoftheMurrayDarlingBasin.Thistensionclearlycannotbesustained.
GreenhouseGas Emissions: all scenarios have significantly reduced greenhouseemissionsby
2020,withtwomeetingIPCCrequirementsforAnnex1countriesatanationallevel(sections3.3and4.2.3).
Thescenarioshavedifferentlevelsofambitioninreducinggreenhousegasemissions(Table4-5). ThesettingsfortheAdjustmentandControlscenariosovershoottheiremissionsreductiontargets
and achieve greater reductions on 1990 levels thanwere sought by 2030, but fail against later
targets.
DIYhasthemostambitioustargets.Itistheonlyscenariothatdoesnotachieveitsintended2030reduction level ata Victorian level, but it exceeds IPCC requirements by2020 and its own 60%
reductiontargetatanationallevelin2030.
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
10/136
VictorianFoodSupplyScenarios
iv
DIYisalsotheonlyscenariothatisabletosustainemissionsreductionsbeyond2040.Thisisduetoareducedpercapitaconsumptionofgoodandservices(andcorrespondinglyenergyuse)acrossthe
economy, which has negative implications for GDP per capita and unemployment (as currently
measured).
Intheothertwoscenarios,theeconomicindicatorsremainhealthybutgreenhousegasemissionsstartrisingagainfrom2040.Thisisduetoincreasingenergydemandoutpacingefficiencygainsand
thenetbenefitfromcarbonsequestrationinforestsdecliningaslandavailabilityreduces.
Oil:onescenarioachievesahighlevelofenergysecurityandsignificantlyreducesimportedoil
reliance,althoughmassiveandimmediateinterventionisrequired(sections3.3.6.2and4.2.4).
TheControlscenarioachievesthemostsignificantreductioninimportedoildependence,duetoanimmediateshifttoelectricvehicles(allnewpassengervehiclesfrom2011)andrapidscale-upofgas
forelectricityandtransportfuel.Thisleadstoelectricvehiclesusingmoreelectricitythanbuildings
by2030andseesconventionalgasresourcesunderseverestrainby2060.
ThesubstantialdiversionofcropsforbiofuelsinAdjustmentandDIYhasanimpactonoildemand,butismarginalcomparedtothedeclineinAustralianoilproduction.It isalargediversionoffood
foraminimalenergygain.
Allofthepossibilitiesforfuelsubstitutionthatarenotquantitativelyincludedintheprojectwouldhaveothercostselsewheree.g.increasedgreenhousegasemissions(coal-to-gasandcoal-to-liquids)or environmental damage (and additional loss of agricultural land or water resources) from
accessingnon-conventionalgasresources.
Phosphorous: all scenarios reduce reliance on imported phosphorus, but retain a large
requirement(sections3.3.6.3and4.2.5).
Thesignificantreductionsinimportedphosphorusrequirementsachievedarelargelyduetodemand-
sidemeasures,including:
Changeofdiet(therequirementforanutritionaldietmodelledinthisprojecthasasignificantlylowerrequirementformeatproductsthantheAustralianaverage.TheControlandDIYscenarios
reducetheproportionofmeatanddairyproductsbeingproduced);
Reducingwaste/losslevelsinsomescenarios;and Agriculturalefficienciesthatreducedemandforphosphorus(relativetoamountoffoodproduced).These unresolved tensions in the results point to a need for more detailed investigation. For
example,anetzeroenvironmentalflowinkeyriversystemsisnotanacceptable(orviable)outcome.
Similarly,constraintsonglobaloilsupplyordomesticgascouldmeanthattheenergyuseassumedin
thisworkiseithernotpossibleorprohibitivelyexpensive.Testinghowandwhetherthesetensionscan
beresolvedbecomesapriorityforfurtherwork.
Methodology
The purpose of this project was to develop and demonstrate a new methodology to link land and
resourceusewithavailabilityofanutritionallyadequatefoodsupplyforVictoriaspopulation.Todoso,
it has built the capacity of the CSIRO stocks and flows model as a platform for on-going what-ifinvestigationofVictorianandAustralianfoodsupplysecurity.
Thethreeelementsofthemethodologydevelopedare:
1. Determiningtheamountandvarietyoffoodsrequiredtomeettherecommendationsofnutritionreferencestandardsforthepopulation;
2. Constructingqualitativescenariostoframedivergentsocio-economicandtechnicaltrajectories;and3. Translatingqualitativescenariostoquantitativescenariosandanalysingtheirimplications.
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
11/136
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
12/136
VictorianFoodSupplyScenarios
vi
setofinterrelatedsystemspolicyoractionconsideringoneissue,suchaswaterorenergyorland,in
isolationfromtheotherswillsimplydisplaceproblemstoelsewhereinthesystem.Inpractice,noneof
the scenario parameters are tightly defined and it is possible to adjust the value of some of those
parameters so that net food deficits are reduced or inadvertently increased; the results of such
adjustmentswillofcoursebesomechangeinothersystemfunctions.
Inthis first stageofresearch,manytensionsremainunresolved.Thesebecomeapriorityfor further
work,forfurtheriterationsofscenariosettingsandmodelling,toseewhether(andhow)theycouldbe.
Marketforcesallocateresourcestheydonotmakethemexist
There is a prevailing argumentthat constraintson foodor energy supplywill bepartially or largely
overcome through market forces as price signals drive innovation, technology development and
efficiency improvements. The researchhasnot ignored these issues, theyareexplored through the
scenariosasfactorsthatdeterminetheallocationofresources.Keypointsrelatingtopricesinclude:
Theeffectsofchangingpricesareimplicitinallscenariosthepricesignals,marketstructuresandgovernment actions are defined outside the model, but are translated as assumptions about
efficienciesorestablishmentofthenewtechnologiesorpractices(i.e.assumingthattheybecome
economicallyfeasibleresponsestotensionsexposedthroughthemodelling).
There arebothphysicaland financial constraints to resourceextraction, regardlessofwhatlevelprices for key resources reach. For critical resources like oil, continually increasing prices areunlikely to be economically sustainable, reducing the capital available to access the remaining
resourceortodevelopsubstitutes.
Byassessingthephysicallimitations,itisevidentthattherearerealconstraintsonhowmuchcanactuallybeprovidedfromwhatisultimatelyafiniteresourcebase.
Vulnerabilitiesandresilience
Thestructuraldifferencesintheinfrastructuresoffoodsupply
exploredinthescenarioswouldbelikelytoaffecttheresilience
ofeachfoodsystemtheextenttowhichfoodavailabilitycan
bemaintained, or the food system can bounce back, in theeventofshocksorrapidsystemicchange.Theresearchwasnot
able to explore these issues in any depth, although it is
recognisedthatthisisacriticaltestoftheviabilityofthefood
system, one that will become increasingly significant as the
impactsofclimatechangeandpeakoilimpingeonglobaland
localmarkets.
Thereareclearsignsofvulnerabilitiesinglobaltradepatterns
thatraisequestionsaboutrelianceonimported foods tomeet
corenutritionalrequirements. These include:an increasing incidence of governments responding to
domesticfoodsecurityconcernsbyslowingorbanningexportsoffood(andfertilisers);severityand
frequencyofextremeweathereventsdisruptingbothproductionanddistributionoffood;andpotential
forenergyandfood constraints todirectlyimpactondistributionsystems, and/or triggersocial andpoliticalunrest.
Furtheranalysisisrequiredtosubjectthemodelledsystemstosomeofthepotentialshocksthatmight
occurinthefuture,totesttheirresilience.
Tightprofitmarginsonfoodproducts,
for example, will make some current
sourcesunprofitableasthepriceoffuel
risesand local suppliers becomemorecompetitive.Retailindustrieswillneed
to either re-evaluate the just-in-time
businessmodel,whichassumesaready
supplyofenergythroughoutthesupply
chainorincreasetheresilienceoftheir
logisticsagainstsupplydisruptionsand
higher prices. [Lloyds Risk Insight
2010].
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
13/136
ExecutiveSummary
vii
Whatnext?
Research
Researchextensions to thisprojectwouldallinvolve furtherdevelopmentof this physicalmodelling
capability forgreaterunderstanding (andimproved adaptivemanagement)of complexchange inthe
foodsystem,andtofurtherinformpolicyandpractice.Prioritieswouldbetoconductmoredetailedanalysisofkeytensionareas,toworktoresolvetensions(totestwhetherandhowthiscouldbedone)
andtoevaluateissuesofresilience.Thisprojectprovidesastrongfoundationfortheidentification(in
collaborationwithpolicy-makers),ofpolicyopportunities,gapsandbarriersacrossthefoodsystemand
how potential policy interventionsmight be prioritised. More detail is provided in section 5.1 and
Appendix6.
Opportunities
ForAustralias futuredevelopment,addressingthe issuesandchallengesexploredin thisprojectwill
requiresubstantialreconfigurationofthefoodsystem.Whilenoscenarioprovidesaneasyanswerto
howthiscanorshouldbedone,theyallsuggestpossibleresponsesandsolutionsthatcanbefurther
explored.ThisisnotachallengeuniquetoAustralia;intheconductofthisresearchitbecameclearthatmanycountriesandregionswerealreadygrapplingwiththeissuesweexploredandinmanycontexts
theneedforinnovationisbeinggivenahighpriority.
Significantopportunitiesthatarereferencedinthequalitativescenariosbuthavenotbeenaccounted
for in the quantitative analysis include: use of waste-water; re-cycling of organic waste and other
productstoproduceenergy,foodand fuel;reductionofemissions inagricultureandsequestrationof
carbon in soil; next generation biofuels, and so on. It is likely that these could make significant
contributionstoeasingthetensionsidentifiedandshouldbeprioritiesforfurtherresearchandaction.
Policy
Akeyquestionarisingfromtheanalysisisabouthowuseoflimitedandcontestedresourcescanbe
optimised tomeet critical objectives. This raises fundamental issues about howwe frame decisionsabout land andresourceuse, particularlyin light of concernsabout foodavailability.Arethe critical
objectivesprofitorproductivity,orresilience?Shouldweplanforshort-to-mediumtermtargets(on
theassumptionthatfuturetechnologicalgainswilleasethetensions)orshouldwefocusnowonthe
long-termpublicgoodbasedonmoreconservativetechnologicalassumptions?
For policy makers, the challenge is to optimise use of land and resources for the public good,ensuringthatappropriateincentivestructuresstimulateprivateenterpriseand innovationto this
end.
Giventhelong-termconstraints,usingpriceastheonlymechanismtodeterminetheflowoflandandresourcesintheshortterm(i.e.tohighestvalueuse)couldeffectivelyreducetheresourcebase
andoptionsavailabletomeetpopulationrequirements.
Sensibleandstrategicdecision-makingabouthowresourcesareusedneeds tobe informedbyanevidencebase thataccounts forphysical realities aswell as economicdrivers.Themethodology
outlinedherecouldbefurtherdevelopedtothisend .
Theassumptionsandvariablesdefinedin thisworkpointtowheremorespecificpolicytoolsmaybeapplied, and can inform policy frameworks for considering these issues. Key areas for policy
considerationare:
o Reducingwasteclosingcyclesandincreasingresilienceofproductionanddistributionsystems(reducingextentoflossestoextremeevents);
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
14/136
VictorianFoodSupplyScenarios
viii
o Obtaining multiple outcomes from land and resources, including: mosaic farming for food,energy, biodiversity and carbon sequestration; andurban andperi-urban foodproduction to
utilisewastewaterandnutrientsconcentratedinpopulationcentres;
o Preventing irreversible loss of food production capability, particularly relating to non-substitutablefoods(e.g.fruitandvegetables);
o Regeneratingsoilqualityandcapabilitytomeetthechallengeofreducedfertiliseravailability;o Reducingoverall energy andtransport demand inboth household(passenger) andindustrial
(freight)sectors;
o Technology and practice change for energy and fuel efficiency, including development ofsubstitutetransportfuelsandtransformationofthetransportsystem;
o Waterandnutrientavailabilityandusedevelopingalternativewaterandnutrientresourcesthatdonotimposeadditionalenergycosts;and
o Developstrategicapproachestopotentiallyprolongedchallengestofoodavailability.Couldthewelfare and emergency food systems cope with extended price impacts of food availability
issues?
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
15/136
Introduction
1
1. IntroductionTheFoodandAgricultureOrganisation(FAO)hasdefinedfoodsecurityasbeingwhenallpeopleatall
times havephysical andeconomicaccess tosufficient, safeand nutritious foodtomeettheirdietary
needsandfoodpreferencesforanactivelife[FAO2011].Lang[2010]hasstressedtheimportanceof
extendingthisdefinitionsoastoencompassenvironmentalsustainabilityconsiderationsanditisthis
extensionthatisbeingexploredinthisresearch.
Ideally,sufficientfoodforanutritiousdietshouldbesecurelyavailableregardlessofpopulationgrowth,
changinglanduses,wateravailability,energysupplyandclimate,andsoon.Giventhatatleast6%of
Victoriansarealreadyfoodinsecure(haverunoutoffoodandbeenunabletoaffordmore)[McCaughey
Centre2007],thatdemandforemergencyfoodreliefhasincreasedrapidly(mostnotablyinregional
areas)[VicReliefFoodbank2008],andclimateinstabilityishavingsevereimpactsonfoodsupply;itis
timelyto investigatehowexacerbatedenvironmental andresourcechallengescouldimpacton future
foodsecurityforVictorians.
In April 2008, the Victorian Eco-Innovation Lab released Sustainable and Secure Food Systems for
Victoria: What do we know? What do we need to know? (SSFSV) [Larsen et al. 2008]. That report
cataloguedtheenvironmentalchallengesandresourceconstraintsthatwillimpact(andinmanycases
are already impacting) on the Victorian food system. These include water scarcity, water and soil
quality, energy (including oil) and nutrient scarcity, climate change and diminishing biodiversity
[Larsenetal.2008].Thesechangingcircumstancesareglobalaswellaslocal,andareexpectedtohave
animpactonthevolumeanddiversityoffoodsproducedandconsumed.
TheSSFSVreport identifiedmanyresearch gaps, including a lackofVictorian researchexploring the
relationshipbetweenenvironmentalandresourceconstraintsandfuturefoodsecurity,orhowsupply
challengesmightaffectsecureaccesstoanutritiousdiet.
Since the release of the SSFSV report, there has been growing attention to the links between
environmentalandresourceconstraints,thedeclineofnaturalresourcesandthesustainableandsecure
provisionoffoodinVictoria,Australiaandaroundtheworld. 2Awarenessofthevulnerabilitiesofthe
globalfoodsystemis rapidlyincreasing,heightenedby thegrowingcontestforlimitedresourcesand
frequency of events that challenge the highly interconnected global food supply. In Australia,
governmentsatlocal,stateandfederallevelarebeginningtograpplewiththecomplexchallengesand
opportunitiespresentedbyachangingfoodsystem,inthecontextofrapidchangeintheothersystems
aroundittheeconomy,climate,energysupply,water,ecosystemandhumanhealthandnutrition.
TheVictorianFoodSupplyScenariosprojectwasa12-monthresearchprojectfundedbytheVictorian
Health Promotion Foundation (VicHealth) through the Healthy Eating stream of their research
innovationgrants,providedtoresearchanewconceptormethodologyrelevanttothetheory,policy
andpracticeofhealthpromotion.
Theprimarypurposeofthisprojectwastodevelopanddemonstrateanewmethodology tolinkland
andresourceusewiththeavailabilityofanutritionallyadequatefoodsupplyforVictoriaspopulation.
1.1ReportStructure
This report outlines and discusses the assumptions, methodology, results and implications of this
project.
Inthe interestsof transparencyand anopen contribution tothe debate, thereportcontainsdetailed
information about the methodology developed, including assumptions and settings within complex
quantitativeanalysis.Tofullyunderstandhowtheresultswereachieved,itisrecommendedthatthe
2ExamplesincludeLarsenetal.[2008],Campbell[2008],Cribb[2010],Heinberg&Bomford[2009],UNEP[2009]andIAASTD
[2008].
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
16/136
VictorianFoodSupplyScenarios
2
reportis readinfull.However,recognisingthatformanyreadersthiswillnotbefeasible,the results
anddiscussioncanbeunderstoodwithoutafulltechnicalunderstandingofthemethodologysection.
Keyassumptionsandareaswherefurtherworkisrequiredareclearlyidentifiedthroughout,usingthe
symbolsbelow.
! Keyassumptionsandpoints
Potentialfurtherresearchorwork
1.2 AimsandObjectivesThisprojectaimedtodevelopanddemonstrateanewmethodologyto:
Explorewhetherpotential changesaffecting Victorias foodsystem,within itsbroader context inVictoria, Australia and internationally, could impact on the secure and sustainable provision of
nutritionallyadequatedietsforVictoriascommunities;and
Consider how the provision of nutritionally adequate diets might impact on the quality of ournaturalresourcebaseandtheecologicalandeconomichealthofVictoria.
A detailed exploration of the above is an immensely complex task. This 12-month project was
established to test the applicability of scenario and quantitative resourcemodelling to identify andassessthemostcriticalpotentialchallengestoVictoriasfoodsupply.Mostimportantly,theprojectwas
intendedtoputinplaceanappropriatelystructuredmodel,populatedwithsufficientdata,tolaythe
groundworkformoredetailedwhatifresearchtobeconductedinthefuture.
Theprojectsobjectiveswereto:
EngageadiversegroupofstakeholdersinthinkingaboutchallengesandopportunitiesforthefutureofVictoriasfoodsystemtoinformofasetofqualitativescenarios;
Investigatethepotentialapplicabilityofstocksandflowsframeworkmodelstoexplorebio-physicalquestionsrelatedtofoodsystemsandbuildmodellingcapability;and
Conductinitialexplorationsofplausiblefuturescenariosandtheirimplicationsforthe: Abilityofthefoodsystemtoprovideasufficientamountandvarietyofthecorefoodsrequired
foranutritiousdietforallVictorians;
ImpactonVictoriasenvironmentanduseofcriticalresourcesfromtheprovisionofanutritiousdiet;and
Impactsonkeyeconomicindicators:GDP;unemploymentandtradebalance.1.3 ScopeTheUN Foodand AgricultureOrganisation(FAO)hasfurtherdefinedfood securityas encompassing
four components: availability; access; utilisation and stability. This project focuses principally on
availability:sufficientquantitiesoffoodofappropriatequality,suppliedthroughdomesticproductionor
imports(includingfoodaid)[FAO2011].
Thisfocusonavailabilityrecognisesthattheirreduciblebaseoffoodsecurityisthephysicalabilitytoprovideforthenutritionalneedsofourpopulation.Thenecessaryconditionforthemodellingofallthe
scenarios (the commonsocial objective) is that sufficient quantitiesand variety offood tomeet the
requirementsofanutritiousdietareavailableforallcitizens.
1.3.1 ANutritiousDietInthisprojectthephrasesufficientquantitiesoffoodofappropriatequalityisinterpretedasmeaning,
for Victorians, the recommended number, amount and variety of serves as specified in official
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
17/136
Introduction
3
recommendations fora nutritionally adequatediet. Theproject isonly concernedwithassessing the
availabilityoffoodrequiredtomeettheseofficialrecommendations.
Therefore,thefoodandnutritionanalysisisbasedonanidealdietprofile,notcurrentnormsthatare
characterisedbyoverconsumptionanddietaryimbalances.Recommendedintakelevelsof corefoods
differconsiderably fromfoodconsumptionpatternsofmanypopulationgroupsreportedin the1995
NationalNutritionSurvey(NNS).Forexample,overhalfofmalesaged12-44yearsnationallyhadnot
eatenfruitthedaybeforetheNNSsurveywasconducted[ABS1995].Forothercorefoodssuchasmeatanddairy,movingtothedietaryrecommendationsconstitutesareduceddemandforthesefoodstuffs.
Thesechangescanbeseenascorrectionsaroundthe2010pointintheFoodSurplus/Deficitgraphsin
theconsumedlines(seeAppendix4).
Currentfruit andvegetable productionin Australia falls short of providingsufficientserves of these
foodstomeettherecommendedfoodintakepatterns[ABS2000].However,thisshortfallismaskedto
a certain extent because current food consumption patterns are not consistent with nutrient
recommendationsandsothegapbetweenproductionandrequiredlevelisnotexposed.
1.3.2 FoodAvailability! Foodavailabilityisfundamentallyafunctionoftheamountoffoodrequiredandtheamountproduced.
! Food can beproducedin Victoria,Australia oroverseas. Itis assumedthat itis possible toimport food ifrequired.
! Foodavailabilityalsodependsoneffectivelyfunctioningfoodsystemsandinfrastructure.Itisassumedthat
foodproducedisphysicallyavailabletoconsumersi.e.thatthesystemsfunctioneffectivelytodistributefood.
Food availability is understood as including how much is produced, as well as the physical
infrastructurenecessarytoensurethatfoodisphysicallyavailabletoconsumerssuchasprocessingand
packaging,distributionandstorage(includingthelastmileofhowpeopleactuallygettheirfood).This
understandingisreflectedinFigure1-1.
Figure1-1:FoodAvailabilityasaComponentofFood
Security(Ingram2008)
Themain indicator used toexplore this isnet
foodavailability,thatis,howmuchisproduced
comparedtorequirements.Thisisafunctionof:
Food produced in Victoria for Victorianconsumption; Surplus foodproducedin Victoriathat is
surplus to consumption requirements,
generally exported to Australia and rest of
world;and
Deficitconsumptionrequirementsthatarenot met through Victorian production and
areimportedfromtherestofAustraliaand
theworld.
Inthisproject, itis assumedthatprocessing,packaging,distributionandstorage systemscontinue to
function effectively,providing foodof sufficient qualityto meetnutritional requirements, evenwhile
substantialchangesareappliedtotheiroperatingstructure.
ChangestoVictorianorAustralianfoodproductionareonlyonepartofacomplexsystem(including
factorssuch asproductionelsewhere,distributionandprice impacts),and thereforedonottranslate
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
18/136
VictorianFoodSupplyScenarios
4
directlyandimmediatelyintoalackoflocalfoodavailability.Itisimportanttonotethatthisprojectis
NOTtryingtopredictormodelglobalfood(orotherresource)availabilitythemodellingassumesthat
imports are available to meet domestic requirements. However, through this work we are able to
exploretheextenttowhichresourceallocationdecisionscouldaffectoursurplusesanddeficitsofcore
foods.Theintentistoestablishbasedatathatcouldunderpinfurther,moredetailed,investigationsof
thevulnerabilityorresilienceofourfoodsupplysysteminthefaceofcomplexchange.Vulnerabilities
arefurtherdiscussedinSection4.4.
Theallocationofphysicalresources to competinguses (e.g. land orenergy resourcesfor agriculture
versus other areas ofproduction); availability of technological systems for theefficient utilisationof
resources (e.g. water or fertiliser);information flows (e.g. to reducewaste); andchanges in climatic
conditions,arethemselvesaffectedbysocial,political,culturalandeconomicconditionsandsystems.In
this work those socio-technical landscapes are framed through alternative scenarios that provide
settingsforthewaytheessentialphysicaldeterminantsoffoodproductionanddistributionplayout
overtime.While these landscapes themselves arecritical inallocationof resourcesand howfood is
produced,thisprojectisfocusedonthephysicalandtechnicallimitstotheavailabilityoffood.
1.3.3 OtherElementsofFoodSecurity! Foodavailabilityisnecessary,butnotsufficient,forfoodsecurity.
Therearemanysocio-economicortechnicalaspectsbeyondavailabilitythatarecriticaltofoodsecurity
overall. This project is in no way suggesting that availability alone provides food security it is
undeniablynecessary,butnotsufficient.Theotherthreecriticalelementsinfoodsecurityidentifiedby
theFAOare:access,utilisationandstability.Whilethesearenotthefocusofthisproject,assumptions
havebeenmadeaboutthemthatframethisinvestigation.Theseareoutlinedbelow.
Access
Notincluded:
Whetherorhowindividualshaveadequateresources(entitlements)for
acquiringappropriatefoodsfora
nutritiousdiet. Priceimpactsofthephysicalchanges
modelled.
Impactsofpriceorotherfactors(e.g.culture,marketingormarketcontrol)on
demandforandconsumptionofa
nutritiousdiet.
Assumed:
Availabilityofthefoodsforanutritiousdietdoesnotmeanthatthesefoodsarenecessarilyaccessible.Producemaybe
exportedifabetterpricecanbeobtainedelsewhere,and
someindividualsmaybeunabletoacquireandconsumeit. Similarly,itwouldbepossibleforfoodproducedin
Australiatobedirectlyexportedtomeettheneedsofother
countries,particularlyiftheyowntheland.
Awiderangeofmechanismscouldneedtobeconsideredtoensurefoodaccessinthecaseofsignificantpricebarriersor
prolongedscarcityofcorefoodse.g.fromwelfarethrough
toexportrestrictionsorrationing.
Consumerpreferencesarecomplex,andsignificantlyshapedbymarketingandinfluenceofsocialnorms.Bynot
exploringthesecriticalfactors,thisprojectimplicitly
assumesthatpeoplewillconsumetheavailablediet.
Definingthepolicyandsocialchangesthatwouldenable/
causethistohappenisoutsidetheprojectscope.
Utilisation
Notincluded:
Whetherorhowindividualshavetheabilitytoutiliseavailablefoodfor
nutritionalwell-being,throughclean
water,sanitationandhealthcare.
Assumed:
Thattheseareinplace,thatfoodsafetyandwaterqualitysystemsarefunctioningeffectively,foodprocessingis
availabletospreadsurplusacrosstheyearetc.,sothatthe
foodthatisavailablecanmeetnutritionalneeds.
Availablefoodsareofsufficientnutritionalvaluetoprovide
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
19/136
Introduction
5
theestimatedamountofkeynutrientsusedtodetermine
requirements.Thisassumesthatthechangingclimate,
productionsystems,andprocessing,storageand
distributionsystems,donotreducethenutritionalvalueof
foodsthatreachtheconsumer.
Stability
Notincluded:
Acutestabilityissuesi.e.responsetosuddendisruptionssuchaspandemics,
socialactionssuchastruckstrikes,or
floodsandfires.
Limitstotimelyorrepeatedrestorationofpre-existingservices.
Assumed:
Thisprojectfocusesattentionondynamicsthatcouldundermineexistingsystems,potentiallyrequiringstructural
changeincurrentsystemsofprovision.
Themodellingallowsforthecomplexinteractionsbetween(bio)physicalsystems(water,energy,climate,soil)thatcan
produceunexpectedorrapidchangesinfoodsupply.
Understandingtheserelationshipsiscriticaltolonger-term
stabilityofthepopulationsfoodsupply.
1.4 ContextTheVictorianEco-InnovationLab(VEIL)isanon-profit,university-based,designandresearchthink-tank established by the Victorian Government through the Environmental Sustainability Action
Statement in 2006 (initially funded through the Victorian Sustainability Fund). Its mission is to
envision and critically review plausible sustainable futures. This has involved the exploration of
scenarios forthe futuredevelopmentofMelbourne /Victoriaover thenext25years,considering,in
particular,changesinsystemsofprovisionofwater,energy,food,transportandbuiltinfrastructureto
meet the requirements of a low carbon economy and to increase resilience in the face of changing
patternsofclimate.VEILsscenario,designandinnovationprojectionsinrelationtofoodprovidedthe
initialbackgroundtothescenarioformationprocess.
VEIL and itsresearchpartners haveembarkedon this projectwith an escalating concernabout key
drivers of change inthe food system that appear tobe accelerating faster thanpolicy, researchand
innovation is responding. A critical aspect of this project is to investigate whether the nutritionalrequirements can bemet considering the challenges of, and response to, climate change; peak oil;
populationandfertiliser/nutrientavailability.
Ourunderstandinghasinformedhowtheseissuesarehandledandissummarisedbelow.
1.4.1 ClimateChange! HighlevelsofclimatechangeconsistentwiththeA1F1IPCCscenarioaretheminimumthatcanbeexpected.
! ThereisscientificconsensusontheneedforAnnex1countries(suchasAustralia)toreducegreenhousegas
emissionsbyatleast20-45%on1990levelsby2020toavoidcatastrophic,irreversibleclimatechange.
Thisprojectattemptstoinformeffortstodoso.
1.4.1.1ClimateImpactsThisprojectispositionedwithinthecontextofahighlevelofclimatechange.Thepotentialimpactsof
climatechangeonavailabilityoffoodareextremelydiverseandcomplex.Asconcernabouttheimpacts
andresponsestoclimatechangeisakeydriveroftheproject,littlewouldbegainedfrominclusionofa
lowclimatechangescenario.
ThehighlevelofclimatechangetakenasabaselineassumptionofthisprojectisbasedontheA1F1
scenariofromtheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangesSpecialReportonEmissionsScenarios
(IPCCSRES),whichhasthefollowingkeyassumptions:
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
20/136
VictorianFoodSupplyScenarios
6
Highglobaleconomicgrowthrates; Populationgrowthwhichpeaksmid-century(2050)anddeclines; Highlevelsofglobalco-operationandlivingstandards(convergence); Energyrequirementsprincipallyderivedfromfossilfuelsources;and Increasinglyefficienttechnology[IPCC2000].The context of the scenarios should therefore be understood as consistent with the A1F1 climatescenario,asdescribedforSouthWestVictoria,fortheperiod2010-2030,inaVictorianDPIproject:
Rainfallin SEAustraliais becoming increasingly erratic. Sometimeswe getlittleornorain for a few
years.Thenwegetaburstinsummerfollowedbynothing.Agriculturebecomesopportunistic.Theoverall
reduction inrainfallproduces significantly lower crop yields.Extreme stormsproducemajor losses in
whatisleft.Anycommoditythatsurvivesboththelowrainfallandthestormsgetsagoodprice,butthisis
patchy in location and timing. Climate change seems to happening faster than we thought itwould.
Householdstressinfarmingfamiliesincreasessignificantly.
Temperatureis increasingatorabovetheupperenvelopeoftheIPCCprojections.Historicalrecordsfor
thenumberofdaysabove35oCareexceededalmosteveryyear.IntensebushfiresarefrequentinVictoria.
Fuel loadseventuallybecome depletedthroughburningand limited regrowth.Smokehazebecomes a
regularfeatureoftheskyscape.Asthmabecomesarealproblem.TheGreenlandicesheethasdecreasedto
alarming levels. Thawing of frozentundra producesmethane release.The rate of temperature rise isfurtheraccelerated.Sea-levelriseiscausingproblemsinBangladesh.Stormsurgesareexacerbatingthe
plightofHollandandotherlow-levelcountries.Scientistsarewarningofabreakdowninfundamental
ecosystemservices.Climaterefugeesappearinincreasingnumbers[DPI2009:13].
Thisclimatecontextsetsthesceneforhigh(butvarying)levelsofwaste/ lossandreducedirrigation
reliabilityinallscenarios.
1.4.1.2GreenhouseEmissionReductions! Thereisascientificandinternationalpoliticalconsensusontheneedforrapidreductioningreenhousegas
emissions.
! Australiawillendeavourtoreduceemissionsinlinewithinternationalcommitmentsandrequirements.
There is a scientific and international political consensuson theneedto limit temperature riseto amaximumof2Cabovepre-industriallevels toavoidcatastrophic,irreversibleclimatechange.Thisis
mostrecentlyaffirmedintheCancunagreementtowhichAustraliaisasignatory[UNFCCC2011:2]:
3. Recognizes that warming of the climate system is unequivocal and that most of the observed increase in
global average temperatures since the mid twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, as assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change in its Fourth Assessment Report.
4. Further recognizes that deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are required according to science,and as documented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change,
with a view to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the increase in global average
temperature below 2C above pre-industrial levels, and that Parties should take urgent action to meet this
long-term goal, consistent with science and on the basis of equity.
Fora50percentchanceoflimitingtemperatureriseto2degrees,atmosphericCO2-ewouldneedtobe
stabilisedat450ppm(partspermillion).ThiswouldrequireAnnex1countries(suchasAustralia)to
reduceemissionsby2540%on1990levelsby2020and80-95%by2050[IPCC2007].
ButtheCancunAgreementgoesfurtherand alsorecognizestheneedtoconsiderstrengtheningthe
long-termglobalgoalon thebasisofthebestavailablescientificknowledge, includingin relation toa
globalaveragetemperaturerise of1.5C [UNFCCC2011:2].The best available scientificknowledge
includesevidence from leadingclimate scientists that limiting to2C is dangerously inadequate. For
example,Hansenetal.[2008]suggeststhatatmosphericlevelsofCO2above350ppm(partspermillion)
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
21/136
Introduction
7
will destabilise the climate and trigger runaway (i.e. unpredictable and non-linear) effects. They
thereforesuggestthatatmosphericCO2levelsmustbestabilisedandreducedfromthecurrentlevelof
391ppm3asamatterofurgency.Acorrespondingaspirationforemissionsreductionsisintherealmof
60%by2020,orfaster.
Withagriculturemakingup16%ofAustralianemissions,andthefoodsystemapproximately28%[ACF
2007] it is clear that anysignificantreduction ingreenhouse gasemissionsacross theeconomywill
requiresubstantialchangestohowfoodisprovidedandcouldimpactonfoodavailability.Thisprojectinvestigatesthebroaderphysicalimpactsofsubstantialandeffectiveaction,particularlyin
relation to food availability, with a view to informing strategies for achieving these emissions
reductions.Therefore,theprojectexploresambitiousemissionsreductionprograms,withallscenarios
includingprogramsoverthenexttwenty-fiveyears.
A highclimate change scenariohasbeenmaintained regardless of thediffering emissionsreduction
trajectoriesbecause:
A1F1SREShasalreadybeenshowntobeconservativeas bothglobalemissionsandtheapparentimpactsofclimatechangehaveexceededthoseunderpinningoranticipatedinthisscenario[Allison
et. al. 2009;Climate CongressCopenhagen 2009;Hurrell 2010]. There is noagreed worse than
A1F1scenario.
Thereis a long lag inclimate systems,so emissions reductionsbetween2010 and 2030willnotreduceclimatechangeimpactsby2060[Solomonetal.2009]. Thereisastrongpossibilityofhittingclimatetippingpointsandtriggeringfeedbackloopswhich
meansthattheclimateisunlikelytoreturntoapreviousstatealongthesametrajectory[Allisonet
al. 2009]. Reducingouremissions thisyeartowhattheywere in1990willnotgiveus the same
climateas1990,evenby2060[Solomonetal.2009].
1.4.2 Oil! Massivechangestohowoilissuppliedandusedareunavoidableandimminent. Thereisapossibilitythat
fundamentalshiftsineconomicstructuremayalsoberequired.Theextenttowhichthepeakingofglobal
oilproduction threatens future food availability in Victoria will depend on the successof a varietyof
strategies,manyofwhichareexploredinthisproject.
1.4.2.1PeakOilPeakOilreferstothemaximumrateofoilproductioninanyarearecognisingthatitisafinitenatural
resource,subjecttodepletion[Campbell2011].Whenacountrysproductionpeaks,itbecomesmore
reliant on imports (unlessdemand is reduced). When the maximum rate of global oil production is
reached,increasesinconsumptioncannolongerbesustained-demandwilloutstripsupply.Theability
toaccess remaining oilreserves becomes increasinglyexpensiveanddifficult,requiringsubstantially
(andconsistently)higherpricestomakeinvestmentinthisproductioncommerciallyviable.
Australiasdomesticprimaryoilproduction(crudeoil,condensateandLPG)peakedin2000-01andhas
declined on average 5% per year to 2007-08 [APPEA 2008; ABARE 2008]. This has increased our
reliance on imported oil and oil products every year since. This research assumes that Australias
domesticoilproductioncontinuestofallovertheperiod20102030,requiringincreasingimportsoralternativefuelsourcestofulfildemand.
3Seewww.co2now.org
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
22/136
VictorianFoodSupplyScenarios
8
Figure1-2:IEAProjectedWorldOilProductionbyType
(NewPoliciesScenario)(IEA2010)
The latest WorldEnergy Outlook 2010 from the
International Energy Agency (IEA) [2010]
acknowledges a global peak in conventional oil
production in 2006 and anticipates substantial
decline rates from currently producing fields
(Figure1-2).
TheabilitytomeetglobaloildemandinthisIEAscenario (noting that the estimate demand
includesasubstantialglobalclimateresponseand
substantial demand reduction in developed
nations) is reliant on the unknown viability of
fieldsyettobedevelopedorfound[IEA2010:8].
1.4.2.2OilandFoodWhilepeakoilissometimesseenprimarilyasatransportissue,liquidfuelavailabilityandcostiscritical
to the agriculture and food system more widely. For example, fuel costs account for a significant
proportionofagriculturalexpenditureinAustralia:32.4%(cropping),21.1%(beef)and15.4%(dairy),
butlessthan1%ofcostsformostotherindustries[Sloan,SipeandDodson2008].Foodproductionanddistributionsystemsacrosstheworldaredependentonaccesstoaffordablefossil-fuelbasedenergy.
Oilandgasarealsousedforproductionofpesticidesandherbicidesandotheragriculturalchemicals,
particularly fertilisers(see1.4.3).Farmmachineryandpumpsare runwithpetroleumfuelandother
materialsandequipmentusedonfarmsareoftenderivedfromoilproductsordependonpetroleum
fuelsformanufacture.
1.4.2.3EROEIandEconomicExpansionTheprojectedincreasesin supplyfromunconventionaloilandfieldsyettobedevelopedor foundin
Figure1-2abovedonottakeintoaccountdecliningEnergyReturnonEnergyInvested(EROEI).EROEI
istheratioofhowmuchenergyisavailableforusecomparedtotheamountofenergytakentoextract,
refineanddeliveritandhencethepricethatmustbesustainedtomakeitworthproducing.Extracting
energy fromunconventional sources requiressignificantly greater inputs of energy than in thepast,thereforeitcostsmoreandhaslowerfinancialreturns.
The relationship between high oil prices and economic contraction, or low oil prices and economic
expansion,isattractingrenewedattention.Eventsinrecentyearshaveledtosuggestionssuchasthatof
Murphy and Hall [2010a; 2010b] that economic growth requires not only energy per se, but
inexpensiveenergy.Further, theInternationalEnergyAgencynotedin itsFebruary2011OilMarket
Update that the global oil burden4 in2010was thesecond-highest following amajorrecession and
could rise this year to levels close to those that have coincided in the past with marked economic
slowdowns[IEA2011citedinOGJEditors2011].Adetailedexplanationofhowandwhyhighoilprices
arecloselylinkedwitheconomicrecessioncanbefoundinTverberg[2011].Recentglobalmodellingof
thispeakoildilemmashowsjusthowcriticaltheseissuescanbecome[ERCUK2009;Korowicz2010].
Giventhatglobalproductionofconventionaloilhaspeaked,asithasinAustralia,significantchallenges
to availability and affordability of imported oil are taken as given. This critical problem for the oil
dependencyoftheAustralianfoodsystemandeconomymorebroadlyisakeydriverofallscenarios.
4Theoilburdenconceptisdefinedasnominaloilexpenditures(demandmultipliedbythecrudeprice)dividedbynominal
grossdomesticproduct(GDP).Arisingoilburdenwillnotnecessarilycauseaneconomicrecession,butitcangreatly
compoundtheeffectofothereconomicandfinancialshocks[IEA2011citedinOGJEditors2011].
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
23/136
Introduction
9
1.4.3 Fertilisers! There will be pressure on fertiliser availability and cost, but the responses to this pressure play out
differentlyacrossdifferentscenarios.
Availability and use of fertiliser and other agricultural inputs is a critical component to levels of
agriculturalproduction.Aswithoil,globaldemandforfertiliserproductsisincreasing.
The fertiliser ingredients that agriculture ismost reliant on are Phosphorus (P), Nitrogen (N) andPotassium (K). Phosphorus is, for the most part, derived from phosphate rock, a non-renewable
resourcethatismined.Theavailability/costofphosphatefertiliserisdependentontheextentand
locationofphosphorusreserves,whicharesubjecttothesamedepletionproblemasoilleadingto
concernaboutglobalpeakphosphorusoccurringby2030.Allfarmersneedphosphorus,butjustfive
countriescontrol85%oftheworldsremainingphosphaterockreserves[Whiteetal.2010].
Nitrogenfertilisers(e.g.ureaandammonia)aremanufacturedthroughaprocessthatusesnaturalgas
to supply hydrogen. The availability / cost of these fertilisers is therefore closely connected to the
availabilityandcostoffossilfuelse.g.oil.
Potassiumis generally appliedusing potash.All potassium-based fertiliserssuppliedin Australia are
currentlyimported[Ryan2010].
1.4.4 Population! MediumgrowthpopulationscenariopopulationofAustraliais29millionin2030and36millionin2050.
Thepopulationassumptionsunderlyingthisprojectarebasedonthemediumgrowthscenariooutlined
in the Australian Bureau of Statistics population projections, which suggest 29 million people in
Australiain2030and36millionin2050[ABS2008](Figure1-3).
While there areon-going tensions relating to population policy inAustralia, a continued increase is
assumedbecause:
Adegreeofpopulationgrowthisinherentindemographicandagestructureswithintheexistingpopulation.Populationstabilisationisunlikelywithoutsignificantpolicyintervention.
5
Substantialglobalpopulationgrowthis expectedtocontinue. Itis likelythatAustralias relativelylow population densities and high per-capita resource use will continue to attract potential
immigrants.
Theresourceandclimatepressuresexploredinthisprojectareanticipatedgloballyandmayleadtovery large population displacement. Pressure to accept refugees, particularly from conflict or
climate-affected areas can be expected to increase. A number of participants in this project
considered there to be a high likelihood of sharply increasing pressure to accept refugees,
particularlyfromclimate-affectedcountriesintheregion.
Undertaking analysisbased on assumptions of increasing population cancontribute to informeddebateastohowVictoriaandAustraliacansustainablyaccommodateagreaterpopulation.
Thereforeitisassumedthattheeconomicpressuretoacceptagrowingpopulationandrefugeedemand
incomingdecadeswilloutweighdomesticpoliticalpressuretostabilisepopulation.Conductinganalysis
based on the medium population projection takes a middle line between possible stabilisation and
pressureforlargerpopulationincreases.
5ABSSeriesDproducesastablepopulation,onthebasisofzeronetimmigrationandareducedfertilityrate(~1.6)[ABS2008].
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
24/136
VictorianFoodSupplyScenarios
10
Figure1-3-AustralianPopulationProjections
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
25/136
Methodology
11
2. MethodologyTheprimaryobjectiveofthisprojectwastodevelopanddemonstrateanewmethodologythatcanbe
usedtoexplorethelinksbetweenlandandresourceuseandtheprovisionofanutritiousdiettothe
population. This section outlines the methodology that has been developed and explains why this
combinationoftoolswasused.
Thethreeelementsofthemethodologydevelopedare:1. Determiningtheamountandvarietyoffoodsrequiredtomeettherecommendationsofnutrition
referencestandardsforthepopulation;
2. Constructingqualitativescenariostoframedivergentsocio-economicandtechnicaltrajectories;and3. Translatingqualitativescenariostoquantitativescenariosandanalysingtheirimplications.2.1 Foodrequirementsforanutritiousdiet
! Useof freshfoods: Ithasbeenassumed that required foodavailability couldbe assessed byestimating
availabilityofcertainamountsandtypesofrelativelyminimallyprocessedfoods,e.g.plainbreadandfresh
fruitandvegetables.
! Anutritiousdietisachievedbydailyconsumptionofadequateamountsofavarietyoffoodsfromthefivefood
groups,asoutlinedintheAustralianGuidetoHealthyEating.
ToinvestigateavailabilityofanutritiousdietfortheVictorianpopulation,itisfirstnecessarytodefine
whatitis.Akeychallengewhentranslatingnutritionanddietaryrecommendationsintopracticeisthe
quantificationoftheamountandtypesoffoodsneededtomeettheconceptsofbalance,varietyand
moderation for a nutritious diet. Government authorities have developed food selection guides as
research, educational,promotionalandplanning tools to translate scientificknowledgeof nutritional
requirementsandfoodcompositionintoapracticalguideforfoodselection.
Withtheexceptionofbreastmilkinthefirstfewmonthsoflife,noonefoodcanprovideanutritionally
adequate diet or achieve the dietary guidelines. Instead, governments with advice from nutrition
expertsrecommendthatanutritiousdietbeachievedby consumingcertainamountsof avarietyof
foodsfromthefivefoodgroupseachday,asoutlinedintheAustralianGuidetoHealthyEating(AGTHE)(Figure2-1)[CommonwealthDepartmentofHealthandFamilyServices1998].
TheAGTHEdefinesanutritiousdietas onethatmeetsthekeynutritionreferencestandards,namely,
theAustraliaRecommendedDietaryIntakes[NHMRC1991]andtheDietaryGuidelinesforAustralians
[NHMRC1992]andtheDietaryGuidelinesforChildrenandAdolescents(NHMRC1995a).Theaimofthe
AGTHEisto,encouragetheconsumptionofavarietyoffoodsfromeachofthefivefoodgroupsevery
day in proportions that are consistent with theDietary Guidelines for Australians" [Commonwealth
DepartmentofHealthandFamilyServices1998].
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
26/136
VictorianFoodSupplyScenarios
12
Figure2-1:TheAustralianGuidetoHealthy
Eating
The AGTHE has been constructed by arranging nutritious
foods, or core foods, into one of five food groups on the
basis of similar nutrient profiles. In particular there is a
distinguishing nutrient(s) for each food group. Foods
allocatedtoaparticularfoodgrouparearichsourceofthe
distinguishingnutrient(s)characteristicofthatfoodgroup.
A standard serve size is provided for foods in each foodgroup such that different foods within a particular food
groupcanbeexchangedtoprovideapproximatelyequivalent
amountsofthedistinguishingnutrient(s)forthatfoodgroup.
Arecommendednumberofservesperdayforfoodsineach
foodgroup is provided to support a nutritionally adequate
daily food intake for population groups depending on age,
genderandlife-stagecharacteristics.
Consumption of this recommended number and variety of food serves will contribute to a diet
consistent with the Recommended Dietary Intakes and Dietary Guidelines. However, for those
population groupswithenergy requirementsadditional to that provided by the recommended food
serves,thereis someflexibilityto includetheso-called extra foodswhilemaintaininga healthydiet.
Extrafoodshavearelativelylownutrientcontentand/orcontainahighamountoffat,sugarand/orsalt
andarenotessentialtotheachievementofanutritiousdiet.Thecombinationofcoreandextrafoodsis
capturedinTable2-1[AGHE1998].
From this information, an estimate of the amount and variety of foods required to meet the
recommendationsofnutritionreferencestandardsforthepopulationcanbeobtainedby:
1.Selectingfoodstorepresenteachfoodgroup;
2. Selectingthepopulationcategoriesforwhichthenutritionimplicationswouldbeassessed;3. Determiningthenumberofrecommendedservesforeachfoodgroup;and4. Estimatingtheamountsoffoodstuffsrequiredtomeetthenutritionreferencestandardsforthe
population.
TheresultsofthisprocessareexplainedinSection3.1.
Revisionoffoodestimatesbasedonupdatedfoodselectionguideanddietaryguidelines
Thefoodselectionguideonwhichtheassessmentofthenutritionaladequacyofthefoodsupplyunder
eachscenarioisbasedistheAGTHEdevelopedin1998asthisisthe currentAustralianfoodguideatthe
timethattheresearchwasundertaken.However,theAGTHEisunderreviewanditisanticipatedthatthe
guide,includingthenumberandtypesoffoodsrecommendedfromeachfoodgroup,willbeupdatedto
capturerevisednutritionrecommendationscontainedwithinthe2006NutrientReferenceValues(NRVs)
forAustralians[NHMRC2006]andtherevisedDietaryGuidelinedocumentsbeingpreparedforAustralian
Adults,AustralianChildrenandOlderAustraliansanticipatedtobereleasedduring2011.6
6Onepracticaldifferencethatwouldemergefromthefutureuseofthe2006NRVsisthatthescopeofthemodellingtoassess
thenutritionandhealthimplicationswouldneedtobeextendedtotakeintoaccounttheAcceptableMacronutrient
DistributionRanges(proportionofdietaryenergyderivedfromfat,carbohydrateandprotein).
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
27/136
Methodology
13
Table2-1:Numberofdailysampleservesneededtoachieveanutritiousdietforchildren,adolescentsandadults
2.2 QualitativeScenarioDevelopmentIneffect,toengagewithscenariosistoholdtwoormorestoriesinmindatthesametimeandtherefore,
holdthefuturenotasabelief,butasafiction [ESF/COST2008:18].
Scenarios are used in this project to enable exploration of a complex array of drivers of change,
includingeconomic,social,(bio)physicalandtechnologicalchanges,thathavethepotentialtoimpacton
foodavailabilityinVictoria.Astherearehighlevelsofuncertaintyinrelationtomany(ifnotall)ofthe
critical dynamics, theuse of scenarios allowsexplorationof different trajectorieswithoutneeding to
determinewhatismorelikelyorpreferable.
Qualitative what-if or exploratory scenarios are suitable for this purpose. These have plausible,
internallyconsistentstorylinesbuilt arounddifferent social,cultural, political andeconomicregimes.
Theyrepresentdifferentdynamicsofchange,responsesandpathways.Exploratoryscenariosarenot
intendedtomakepredictions,foreseethefuture,orgettherightanswer.
Divergent exploratory scenarios can also be used to describe different sets of operating conditions
resultingfromdifferentresponsestotheidentifieddriversanddynamics.Inthisway,theycanbeused
toexploredifferentpolicyorculturalapproachestokeyissues.
The scenario timeframe is a 25-year horizon, for both practical and strategic reasons (following a
processdevelopedintheworkofoneoftheresearchpartners,theVictorianEco-InnovationLab).This
timeframeissufficiently removedfromthepresentday thatmostworkshopparticipantsandreaders
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
28/136
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
29/136
Methodology
15
impacts,synergiesandtrade-offscanbeproperlyidentifiedintheASFF,unlikeothermodelsoranalysis
withlessscope.Additionally,thephysicalfeasibility(orotherwise)ofagivenscenarioishighlightedas
the relationships in the ASFF are based on irrefutable mass and energy balance. Furthermore,
innovativesolutionstoanyidentifiedproblemscanbeexploredintheASFFsincepastbehaviour(such
as economic relationships) is not hard-wired into the ASFF. However, past behaviour can be
approximated in future scenarios based on projections of historical parameters and use of key
feedbacks,asdescribedbelow.
TheopenbiophysicalnatureoftheASFFisintendedfordevelopmentofstrategyscenariosanalysed
arenotintendedtobenormative(ideal)orprescriptive.Itisdesignedtoexplorethequestionofwhere
thenationaleconomicsystemcouldgooverthelongtermwithinirrefutablebiophysicalconstraints,to
informthedevelopmentofappropriatepolicy.Nooptimisationorideologyisbuiltintothecoreofthe
ASFF,thoughsocio-economicfeedbacksareincorporatedinseveralways(see3.3.1).TheASFFemploys
mass-balanceidentitiesassociatedwithstockandflowdynamicsthroughoutthenationaleconomyand
its interactionwith the environment,but doesnotmodel behaviour, insteadusingmany exogenous
inputsforparametersofsocial,economicandtechnologicalchange. Initsoperation,theASFFisvery
analogous to a flight simulator, where the pilot learns from experimenting in the computer
environment,toavoidcrashingtheaircraftinreal-life. Aswithaflightsimulator,therearealsomany
fixedassumptionsthatgovernhowthesystemworks.
ThekeypurposeofusingtheASFF,then,istoidentifystrategicenvironmentalorresourceissuesin
advance and explore alternative physically-feasible pathways, rather than attempting to optimise
outcomesforfuturesthataremarginalvariationsonthepast.ThismakestheASFFanidealvehicleto
exploreimplicationsandlimitationsoffoodavailability.
WhiletheASFFhasnotpreviouslybeenusedtoexploreprovisionofanutritiousdiettothepopulation,
itisparticularlysuitedto investigationofresourceallocationissuesandprovidedunique insightsfor
thisanalysis.
SeeBox1formoreinformation.
-
8/6/2019 Food Supply Scenarios - Full
30/136
VictorianFoodSupplyScenarios
16
Box1:TheAustralianStocksandFlowsFramework
TheAustralianStocksandFlowsFramework(ASFF)hasbeendeveloped toassess the biophysicallongevityofthe
Australianeconomy. Ittreatsthebiophysicalsystemsasprimaryif aphysicallimitis reached inthebiophysical
systemthen,whilethevalueofthedecliningresourcemayincrease,theneedsoftheeconomymaynotbeabletobe
met.
It is a process-based simulation that covers the physically significant elements of each sector of the Australian
economy,aswecurrentlyunderstandthem,includingsomeserviceaspects(seeFigure2-2).Naturalresources(land,
water, air, biomass and mineral resources) are also represented explicitly. Part of the framework incorporates a
physicalinput-outputmodelforthetransformationofbasicmaterialsandenergytypes[Lennox,Turneretal.2005].
Elsewhere, there are physical accounting relationships that represent the key processes, such as converting the
requirement fortransport ofgoodsintothe size ofthe freighttransport fleetand the fuel requirement.A detailed
explanationoftherelationshipsthroughouttheASFFisavailable[Poldy,Foranetal.2000].Allvariablesrepresenting
physicalstocksandflowsobeythethermodynamicconstraintsofconservationofmassandenergy.
Figure2-2:SchematicFlowDiagramofModernEconomy
Schematicsummaryofphysicalflowconnectionsofa
moderneconomylikeAustralias.Flowsofpeople,energyandmaterialsmayenterandexittheeconomy,
principallyasimportsandexportsontheleftandright
respectively.Withinthedomesticeconomy,natural
resourcesareextractedorharvestedfromthe
environment(shownatthecentrebottomofthe
diagram).Materialsaretransformedprogressively
(goingupwardinthediagram),withtheuseofsuitableenergy,toeventuallyprovidegoodsand
servicesforthepopulation.Thepopulationprovidesa
labourforce(atthetop)foralltheeconomicsectors.
Wastesandemissionsaregeneratedbytheeconomic
activity,andmayberecycled,exportedorreturnedto
theenvironment.Otherflowsoccurbetweeneconomic
sectors.
Geographically,theASFFcoverscontinentalAustralia,includingthemarineareawithinAustraliaseconomicexclusion
zone(forfishingandfuels).Withinspecificsectorsoftheframeworkdifferentgeographicresolutionsareused,e.g.,
agricultureisresolvedatthe58statisticaldivisionsacrossAustralia.ThetemporalextentoftheASFFislong-term:
scenariosoverthe futurearecalculated to2100,and themodelisalso run