food security situation in east and southern africa
TRANSCRIPT
FOOD SECURITY SITUATION IN THE COMESA REGION
16th September, 2013
Addis Ababa
Presentation by
Chris Manyamba & Sheryl Hendriks
Institute for Food, Nutrition and Well
Being, University of Pretoria
COMESA FIFTH JOINT TECHNICAL COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE, ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES MEETING
Introduction-food security defined 1996 World Food Summit defined food security as: • When “all people, at all times, have physical and economic access
to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy life”
This implies: • Production of enough food • Access, acquisition and entitlement to purchase food • That food is safe to consume • Utilisation is efficient • Preferences and cultural prohibitions are met
Absence of these elements leads to food insecurity
Introduction • Food security and nutrition are
high on the political agenda at the global, regional and national levels.
• Global agenda: Group of 20 and (G-20); Rio+20, G8
• Continental: Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Programme (CAADP)
• National: Policies and strategies
• 870 million -undernourished in the period 2010–12.
• 852 million in developing countries, children ~15% of the population).
• 200 million children are stunted
Background
• Food Security-priority policy issue in all COMESA member states.
• Chapter 18 of the COMESA Treaty (1994).
• Recently, human rights approach by a number of governments-1948 UN Declaration of Human Rights
• COMESA region –marred with poor development indicators (ReSAKSS, 2013) – Poverty Rates
• 34% (Southern)
• 37% (Eastern )
– AgGDP growth • 4.2 % (Eastern Africa)
• 4.6% (Southern Africa)
• Hunger is still a threat in COMESA – Most countries’ intake is less than the
recommended Amount of 2100 calories/day (RESAKSS-ECA, 2011).
• CAADP Framework for African Food Security (FAFS) –helping African countries reach a higher path of economic growth through agriculture-led development
– Pillar 3. Increase Food Supply, Reduce Hunger and Improve Responses to
Food Emergency Crises
Progress towards Millennium Development Goal 1
Target already met or expected to be met by 2015 or prevalence <5%
Progress insufficient to reach the target if prevailing trends persist
No progress or deterioration
Missing or insufficient data
Not assessed
Food Balance Sheet-total cereals (as of June 2013) …..significant uncovered deficit in most member states.
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Uganda
Tanzania
Swaziland
Sudan
Rwanda
Mauritius
Malawi
Madagascar
Kenya
Ethiopia
Eritrea
DRC
Djibouti
Comoros
Burundi
Domestic Availability Import Requirement
Source: Own Calculations from FAOSTAT 2013.
Estimated Numbers-Food Insecure (2012) ……..a large proportion of the population remain food insecure
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
Sudan
Ethiopia
South Sudan (not yet COMESA…
Somalia (non COMESA member)
Kenya
Burundi
Zimbabwe
Malawi
Mozambique (Non COMESA member)
Swaziland
Zambia
4.6
3.2
2.8
2.51
2.4
1.7
1.67
1.63
0.26
0.115
0.062
Population in millions
Estimated No. of Food Insecure Persons-2012
Prevalence of under nutrition in children under the age of five years (%) Decreasing child mortality and improving maternal health depend heavily on reducing malnutrition, which is responsible, directly or indirectly.
Source of data: Measure DHS. ICF International, 2012. MEASURE DHS, WHO (2013)
UNDERWEIGHT Low weight for age • Any protein-energy malnutrition • reflect the long-term health and
nutritional experience of the child • Influenced by both
– the height of the child (height-for-age)
– and his or her weight (weight-for-height)
STUNTING • Low height for age,
• Chronic malnutrition
• Effects on children
– delayed motor development,
– impaired cognitive function
– poor school performance.
WASTING • Very low weight for
height
• Severe acute malnutrition
• visible severe wasting
• Predictor of child mortality
Prevalence of under nutrition in children under the age of five years (%)
28.8
57.7
5.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Underweight Stunting Wasting
Pe
rcen
tage
Burundi DHS-2010
25.1
45.5
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Underweight Stunting Wasting
Pe
rce
nta
ge
DRC DHS-2007
19.5
48.3
8.3
17.5
51.1
4.7 11.4
44.2
2.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Underweight Stunting Wasting
Per
cen
tage
Rwanda DHS
2000 2005 2010
18.4
44.8
4.9
15.9
38.1
6.1
13.8
33.4
4.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
Underweight Stunting Wasting
Per
cen
tage
Uganda DHS
2000-01 2006 2011
Source: Own Calculations Measure DHS data
15.8
35.7
6
16.1
35.3
6.7
0
10
20
30
40
Underweight Stunting Wasting
Per
cen
tage
Kenya DHS
2003 2008-09
41.2
57.7
12.2
32.9
50.8
12.2
28.7
44.4
9.7
0
20
40
60
80
Underweight Stunting Wasting
Pe
rcen
tage
Ethiopia DHS
2000 2005 2011
33.8
42.9
14.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
Underweight Stunting Wasting
Pe
rcen
tage
Eritrea DHS-2002
3.7
23.4
3 5
22.9
4.8 6
28.9
7.2
0
10
20
30
40
Underweight Stunting Wasting
Per
cen
tage
Egypt DHS
2000 2005 2008
Prevalence of under nutrition in children under the age of five years (%)
Source: Own Calculations Measure DHS data
22.5
52.5
6
14.6
45.4
5.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Underweight Stunting Wasting
Pe
rcen
tage
Zambia DHS
2001-02 2007
10.3
33.6
7.5
13.2
34.6
6.9 9.7
32
3
0
10
20
30
40
Underweight Stunting Wasting
Pe
rcen
tage
Zimbabwe DHS
1999 2005-06 2010-11
20.3
54.6
6.6 17.3
52.5
6
12.8
47.1
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Underweight Stunting Wasting
Per
cen
tage
Malawi DHS
2000 2004 2010
5.4
28.9
2.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Underweight Stunting Wasting
Per
cen
tage
Swaziland DHS-2006-7
Prevalence of under nutrition in children under the age of five years (%)
Source: Own Calculations Measure DHS data
48
58
33
0
20
40
60
80
Underweight Stunting Wasting
Pe
rcen
tage
Sudan 2006
8
32
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Underweight Stunting Wasting
Per
cen
tage
Libya 2007
45
53
42
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Underweight Stunting Wasting
Per
cen
tage
Djibouti 2006
3.7
23.4
3 5
22.9
4.8 6
28.9
7.2
0
10
20
30
40
Underweight Stunting Wasting
Pe
rcen
tage
Egypt DHS
2000 2005 2008
Prevalence of under nutrition in children under the age of five years (%)
Source: Own Calculations Measure DHS data
6 6
2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Underweight Stunting Wasting
Pe
rcen
tage
Seychelles 1987-88 17
13
18
0
5
10
15
20
Underweight Stunting Wasting
Pe
rcen
tage
Mauritius 1995
36.2
53.2
14.6
50.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Underweight Stunting Wasting
Per
cen
tage
Madagascar DHS
2003-04 2008-09
Prevalence of under nutrition in children under the age of five years (%)
General Outlook -2013
East Africa • Staple food prices generally
followed their seasonal trends in July.
• Sorghum prices increased atypically in parts of Sudan and Ethiopia due to the recent late start of season in key surplus-producing areas.
• Maize prices were stable or decreased in Tanzania and Uganda, and increased in Rwanda.
Africa wide • Most countries have recorded
higher numbers of acutely food insecure populations
• ………..a much wider geographic distribution of affected areas compared to the past three years.
• Estimate- 7.70 million people in the region (excluding the DRC) are at risk of food insecurity.
Southern Africa • Drought in parts of southern Africa
has reduced maize production and contributed to very high prices
• Minimal food insecurity outcomes to prevail in the region
Source: FEWSNET, 2013
Generally…
Southern Africa • Malawi: Stressed food insecurity
in localized areas
• Zimbabwe: High food prices affect food insecurity
• Maize grain and meal prices continued to increase atypically in parts of Zambia and Malawi
• Madagascar: Prices will increase faster than usual during the lean season
.
• Burundi: Improved food access for poor households during the post-harvest period
• Djibouti: Improvements in acute food security likely
• Kenya: Food security deteriorating in the Southeast
• Rwanda: Household food stocks rapidly deplete
• South Sudan: Near-average national harvests remain likely
• Sudan: Expectations for near-average harvest remain
• Uganda: Green harvest to mitigate food insecurity
East Africa
Source: FEWSNET, 2013
Specific Country Outlook
….. as of July 2013
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA, FEWS NET, Dartmouth Flood Observatory
Most-likely food security outcomes, October to December, 2013 …………………..Pockets of acute food insecurity in areas that experienced reduced
harvests
Factors Likely to Impact on the Food Security Situation
Policy factors
– investment levels,
– import and export bans,
– market infrastructure level
– production incentives; acce finance;
Political and security factors
– as evidenced in the case o eastern part of the DemocRepublic of Congo
Agronomic factors
– -rainfall levels (weather conditions),
– crop varieties being adopte
– post harvest management practices,
– pests and disease outbreaks
Market factors
– input consumption (determ market prices and
– Output market prices,
– Market access,
– Market information
Cereals production in member states have increased over the past decade……with decreasing trends in some member states
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Per
cen
t ch
ange
Cereal production-% change
1990-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2005-2012
Actual yields for the main food crops (maize, rice, millet and sorghum) are well below what could be achieved in many regions……..
Source: Own Calculations from FAOSTAT 2013.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Pe
rcen
t ch
ange
Cereal production-% change
1990-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2005-2012
Source: Own Calculations from FAOSTAT 2013.
….per capita production decreasing
Rapid population growth in member states , may outstrip cereal production…………..
y = 1E+07x + 2E+08 R² = 0.9628
y = 0.8486x + 140.4 R² = 0.7457
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Pe
r ca
pit
a p
rod
uct
ion
Po
pu
lati
on
in M
illio
ns
Per capita cereal production-COMESA
Total population COMESA per capita Cereal Production
Linear (Total population COMESA) Linear (per capita Cereal Production)
Source: Own Calculations from FAOSTAT 2013.
Food prices continue to rise in the Southern, Eastern and West Africa Regions……….
• International rice prices remained stable or decreased in July.
• Maize prices decreased considerably with improved harvest prospects in the United States.
• Wheat prices have continued to decrease due to improving growing conditions and harvest projections. Crude oil prices were stable.
• Source: FEWSNET, 2013
The food insecurity situation in the COMESA region is further demonstrated by the changes in the food prices in the member states………..
Southern Africa East Africa
Source: FEWSNET, 2013
Conclusions • Serious shortages in cereals (less than 70% shortfall) in 10 COMESA countries
(Food Balance Sheets, 2013)
• Around 20.9 million (see slide 7) people food insecure in the 11 countries (for which recent data is available) and 7.7M at risk of food insecurity (see slide 14)
• Progress towards MDG1 insufficient in a significant number of countries (slide 6)
• Drought and high inflation and localised conflict threaten food security in COMESA countries.
• Cereal per capita production is decreasing while population is increasing and outstripping supply. This has a direct impact in availability of food at household level
• High prevalence levels of malnourishment among children under-five years of age remain a public health problem in the COMESA region.
– Childhood stunting is over 40% countries and more than 30% in 12 countries (slides 8 – 12).
– Wasting places under-five children at substantial increased risk of severe acute malnutrition and death
Food Security Challenges Food Security Solutions
Inadequate food crisis management at all levels
Reduced risk and improved resilience
Inadequate food supply and marketing systems
Increased supply of affordable food
Lack of income opportunities Increased incomes for the poor
Hunger, malnutrition and poor diet quality
Improved nutrition
Pillar 3: Food Security
Recommendations
• Agricultural growth is particularly effective in reducing hunger and malnutrition.
• Comprehensive national food security strategies are urgently needed and need to include: – Programmes to increase food supply are urgently needed to provide for a
growing population
– Improving resilience of the food systems is essential
– Programmes to improve children’s nutrition are urgently needed – Scaling Up Nutrition Programmes play an important role.
• Promoting infrastructure development and harmonized policies – free flow of food staples from surplus to deficit areas driven primarily by price incentives
and market forces.
• Encourage and support women in agriculture (production inputs, access to markets, credit, extension services etc.)
Thank You
Christopher Manyamba Researcher: Institute for Food, Nutrition and Well-being, University of Pretoria, South Africa Prof Sheryl Hendriks Director: Institute for Food, Nutrition and Well-being, University of Pretoria, South Africa