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YEREVAN April 2013 FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA

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Page 1: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

YEREVANApril 2013

FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA

Page 2: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

INTRODUCTION

Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches covered:

- Retail trade sector in Armenia: FMCG market, October 2012

- Hospitality sector in Armenia: Tourism and hotel accommodation, December 2012

These researches enable all stakeholders to assess effectively the current market trends, peculiarities of demand and supply in the researched sector, main players, their weaknesses and strengths, as well as emerging opportunities.

This report presents some of the findings of the comprehensive research on food (including beverages and tobacco) processing sector in Armenia.

2

Page 3: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

WHAT ANSWERS DO RESEARCH FINDINGS PROVIDE?

3

Describe current macroeconomic situation in Armenia

Give an overview of the food, beverages and tobacco sector in Armenia - Foodstuff production volumes, foreign trade figures and comparative analysis with other countries - Sales of subsectors in the local market - Prerequisites, barriers and risks associated with the subsectors - Expectations of future development trends - Prospects of future development trends for subsectors - Major players in the subsectors

Page 4: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

WHAT ANSWERS DO RESEARCH FINDINGS PROVIDE?

Legal framework of field regulation

4

Annexed hereto, you may find: - Overview of major players per subsectors - Results of random survey of companies involved in food and beverages

processing (covers networking between the companies and their assessment of the banking sector)

- Results of random survey of small-sized shops and stores

Page 5: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

SUBSECTOR DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY

5

Development capacity of each subsector by:

a. Demand on the local market/import substitution

b. Increase of export volumes

c. Both domestic demand and export

Page 6: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

SUBSECTOR DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY

6

Domestic Market Volumes*: Export and Import per Subsector in 2011

* Domestic market volumes have been assessed according to the following formula: domestic manufacturing (VAT and excise tax excluded) – export + import.

Source: National Statistical Service (NSS) of Armenia and author’s calculations. Trade volumes by economic activities have been presented according to the external economic activity product list and NACE classification conversion keys.

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

-20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0%Shar

e of

impo

rt in

the

dom

estic

m

arke

t

Share of export in manufacturing

10.1

10.2

10.3

10.4

10.5

10.6

10.7

10.8

11

12

Modeling the roles of export and import in the subsectors against the domestic market sales volumes creates the following picture, grouping subsectors into the following 4 categories:

Size of the ball shows domestic market assessment in 2011.

Developed (large export, minor import) - Manufacture of drinks (11)

Subsectors with import prevailing - Production of meat products (10.1)

- Manufacture of vegetable and animal oils and fats (10.4)

- Manufacture of other food products (sugar, coffee, tea, etc.) (10.8)

Developing and having growth potential - Manufacture of tobacco products (12)

- Processing and preserving of fruit and vegetables (10.3) - Processing and preserving of fish (10.2) (These subsectors are characterized by a relatively high share of exports, nonetheless the domestic demand is mainly satisfied by imported products)

Domestic market subsectors - Manufacture of grain mill products (10.6)

- Manufacture of bakery and farinaceous products (10.7)

- Manufacture of dairy products (10.5)

Page 7: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

SUBSECTOR DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY

7

-20

30

80

130

180

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Impo

rt 2

011,

mln

USD

Export 2011, mln USD 10.1. 10.2. 10.3. 10.4. 10.5. 10.6. 10.7. 10.8.

621.6

250.8 63.3 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 30 60 90 120 150 180

Impo

rt 2

011,

mln

USD

Export 2011, mln USD

Food Beverages Tobacco

Food, Beverages and Tobacco Processing:

Imports and Exports

Processing in Food Sector Subgroups:

Imports and Exports

Food sector is characterized by comparable volumes of imports and exports.

Beverages subsector has a bigger focus on export. Tobacco subsector is characterized by a greater share of

import in the domestic market and at the same time increased orientation to the export. In 2012, the export outstripped import in kind.

Manufacture of bakery and farinaceous products (10.7) is in the lead in the food industry, mainly catering to the needs of the domestic market.

Processing and preserving of fruit and vegetables (10.3) is in the lead by export volumes despite mid-positions by production volumes among other food processing subsectors.

Other products (coffee, tea, sugar) subsector (10.8) is characterized by the predominating share of imported goods.

Size of the ball indicates manufacturing volumes in 2012

Page 8: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

SUBSECTOR DEVELOPMENT TRENDS

8

Subsector development during recent 3 years

Domestic market comparative value/share of import, % 2011

Export trends in the subsectors during recent 3 years

Import trends in the subsectors during recent 3 years

Main commodity boosting production volumes

10.1 Processing and preserving of meat and production of meat products

Stable growth Average/ 73.4% Almost even Growth Sausages

10.2 Processing and preserving of fish, crustaceans and mollusks

Dramatic growth in 2012 after slump during 4 years Minor/100 Stable growth Growth

10.3 Processing and preserving of fruit and vegetables Stable growth Small/77.5% Growth Stable growth Juices

10.4 Manufacture of vegetable and animal oils and fats

Slump in 2011, dramatic growth in 2012 Small/98.7% Almost even Growth

10.5 Manufacture of dairy products Almost even Average/24.2% Stable growth Even

10.6 Manufacture of grain mill products, starches and starch products

Stable growth Average/17.0% Almost even Growth Flour

10.7 Manufacture of bakery and farinaceous products Almost even Large/7.4% Growth Growth Bread

10.8 Manufacture of other food products

Slump in 2012 after the dramatic growth during recent years

Large/53.0% Stable growth Growth Sugar

11.0 Manufacture of beverages Stable growth Average/37.7% Stable growth Even Brandy, wine

12.0 Manufacture of tobacco products

Slump in 2011, dramatic growth in 2012 Average/73.1% Growth Decrease Cigarettes

Page 9: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

9

Opinion of the companies involved in the subsectors (according to the survey results)

Subsector development expectations for the coming 1-3 years*

Subsector development prerequisites*

Risks associated with subsector development*

Prerequisites for subsector produce export*

10.1 Processing and preserving of meat and production of meat products

Even Buying capacity of the population Political and economic instability High quality products, low COGS and prices, equipment

10.2 Processing and preserving of fish, crustaceans and mollusks Even Product quality issues … …

10.3 Processing and preserving of fruit and vegetables Modest growth Financial investments Climate conditions Low COGS and prices,

Government promotion

10.4 Manufacture of vegetable and animal oils and fats Modest growth Financial investments Many risks without any of them

standing out Marketing and advertising

10.5 Manufacture of dairy products Even/modest decrease Raw materials-related issues, export opportunities Political and economic instability Equipment

10.6 Manufacture of grain mill products, starches and starch products

Even Availability of financial resources Tax and customs regulations, price volatility Marketing and advertising

10.7 Manufacture of bakery and farinaceous products Even Government promotion, staffing Quality of raw materials, sales of

finished goods …

10.8 Manufacture of other food products Even Tax and customs regulations,

competitive environment Many risks without any of them predominating

High quality products, financial investments

11.0 Manufacture of beverages Modest growth Tax and customs regulations Exchange rate volatility Government promotion, marketing

12.0 Manufacture of tobacco products … … … …

SUBSECTOR DEVELOPMENT PREREQUISITES

Page 10: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW

10

• GDP • Prices • Exchange rates • Foreign trade • External debt • Demographics

Page 11: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW: GDP

11

Source: NSS RA

13.0 9.6

15.4

-5.9 -6.3

-18.6 -19.7

-7.8

7.3 9.3

-5.6

3.1 1.9 3.4

6.6 5.3 5.6 6.2 7.5

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

% ,

chan

ge Y

-o-Y

bn, A

MD

GDP Quarterly Dynamics

GDP GDP real growth (right axis)

3 time periods are revealed: 2002-2008 Q3 (before crisis – with 13.1% average annual growth), 2008 Q4-2009 (crisis – with 14.1% decline in 2009), 2010 – now (recovery – with 4.6% average annual growth estimated for 2010-2012).

Nominal GDP in 2011 was 3,778 bln AMD, up by 5.8% over 2008 level. Actually, in real terms it was less by 8.1%, and in nominal USD equivalent less by 13.1%.

IMF forecast for 2013 GDP growth is 4.3%. Government target for Y2013 is 6.2%.

Source: NSS RA

2,37

6

2,80

7

3,57

7

4,90

0

6,38

4

9,20

6

11,6

62

8,64

8

9,26

0

10,1

38

Fore

cast

ed

13.2 14.0 10.5

13.9 13.2 13.7

6.9

- 14.1

2.2 4.7

7.0

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

500

2,500

4,500

6,500

8,500

10,500

12,500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

change Y-o-Y, % G

DP, m

ln U

SD

GDP Dynamics and Growth

GDP GDP real growth rate (right axis)

Page 12: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

PROCESSING INDUSTRY: Comparative Analysis

12

21.6

15.0 13.6 12.7

11.2 10.1 8.6

4.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

Romania Estonia Russia Latvia Moldova Armenia Georgia Azerbaijan

Shar

e in

GDP

, %

Share of Processing Industry in the GDP (2011)

Manufacture of food products is one of the key subsectors of the processing industry. Country-to-country comparison is best illustrated through industry share in the

GDP and added value per capita. More detailed comparisons misrepresent the total picture as a result of

different approaches and data integrity issues.

Page 13: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

PROCESSING INDUSTRY: Comparative Analysis

13

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Estonia 1807 2293 2489 1765 1966 2496 Romania 1195 1655 1863 1514 1657 1917 Russia 1065 1383 1748 1111 1343 1763 Latvia 924 1298 1434 1123 1281 1737 Armenia 226 265 301 249 252 314 Azerbaijan 143 191 264 277 281 312 Georgia 153 191 231 173 209 277 Moldova 119 145 191 162 173 220

Processing Industry Added Value per Capita, USD

Sources: Statistical Services of the countries

Armenia is far behind EU countries and Russia both by the share of processing industry in the GDP and industry added value per capita.

Processing industry output per capita in Armenia is almost even with Azerbaijan (though GDP per capita in 2011 was about 2.3 times less) and outstrips Georgia (by 13%) and Moldova (by 43%).

Page 14: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

PROCESSING INDUSTRY: Armenia

14

36%

14% 4%

24%

7%

3% 2% 2%

1%

8%

Breakdown of Processing Industry, 2012 Food

Beverages

Tobacco

Basic metals

Other non-metallic mineral products

Rubber and plastics products

Fabricated metal products

Paper products and printing

Chemicals

Other

62.7 58.9 58.7

56.1 54.0

47.2 48.8 46.5 49.4

53.1 51.0 52.8 53.9

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Share of Food, Beverages and Tobacco Industry in Food Processing, %

Source: NSS RA

Page 15: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

LABOR EFFICIENCY

15

27.8 25.5

30.7

37.8 38.7 38.0 38.6

45.4 45.8

24.3 28.0 28.9

37.8

47.5

31.4 36.3

40.4 43.5

26.8 24.2 26.3 24.3

30.0

23.0

36.1 26.3

35.6

05

101520253035404550

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Thou

s. U

SD

Food Beverages Tobacco

Output per Employee, thous. USD

While in 2004-2006, labor efficiency in the 3 subsectors was very much on the same level, in 2011 the differences clearly stood out as a result of instability in the beverages and tobacco production volumes caused by recession. Nonetheless, according to 2012 results the differences in the labor efficiency indicators of three subsectors considerably leveled down, what is actually a logical development.

Source: NSS RA

Page 16: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

FOOD PRODUCTION BY MARZES

16 Source: NSS RA

49%

3%

13% 3%

2%

4% 13%

8%

2% 2% 1% YEREVAN

ARAGATSOTN

ARARAT

ARMAVIR

GEGHARKUNIK

LORI

KOTAIK

SHIRAK

SYUNIK

VAYOTS DZOR

TAVUSH

Manufacture of Food, Beverages and Tobacco, 2012

Page 17: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

FOOD PRODUCTION

17

Production Volumes in Armenia, 2004-2012

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

bln AMD mln USD (right axis)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

bln AMD mln USD (right axis)

010203040506070

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

bln AMD mln USD (right axis)

Food Beverages

Tobacco

Source: NSS RA

Page 18: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

FOOD PROCESSING DYNAMICS

18

Developments over the Recent 7 Years Fish processing and preserving have waned considerably in 2006-2011, nonetheless dramatic growth of the

industry in 2012 (mainly due to the very low basic indicator) holds promise of new development. Manufacturing of vegetable oil and fats has seen quite a lot of ups and downs too.

Output of meat products production has increased by more than 2.5 times in real value expression.

Source: NSS RA

221.3

0.8

182.5

230.6

158.6 178.0

105.8

0

50

100

150

200

250

Processing andpreserving of meatand production of

meat products

Processing andpreserving of fish,crustaceans and

mollusks

Processing andpreserving of fruit

and vegetables

Manufacture ofvegetable and

animal oils and fats

Manufacture of dairyproducts

Manufacture ofgrain mill products

Manufacture ofbakery and

farinaceous products

2005

=100

Processing Volumes in 2011 vs. 2005

Page 19: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

FOREIGN TRADE

19

Breakdown of Exports in 2011 (by type of activity) Breakdown of Imports in 2011 (by type of activity)

National Statistical Service (NSS) of Armenia and author’s calculations. Trade volumes by economic activities have been presented according to the external economic activity product list and NACE classification conversion keys.

Fish products, 2.3%

Juices and preserved fruits and

vegetables, 6.7%

10.5, 1.3%

10.8, 5.5%

Beverages, 74.9%

Tobacco, 8.3% 10.1

10.2

10.3

10.4

10.5

10.6

10.7

10.8

10.9

11

12

Meat products,

17% 10.2 1%

Juices and preserved fruits and

vegetables, 11%

Oils and fats 11%

Dairy products 6%

10.6 3%

10.7 3%

Other food products,

25%

10.9 3%

Beverages, 8%

Tobacco, 12%

Page 20: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

FOREIGN TRADE

20

Exports of Food, Beverages and Tobacco Products (HS classification) by Key Partner Countries, 2011

Iraq, 25%

Russia, 73%

Georgia, 100%

Russia, 51%

Georgia, 52%

Georgia, 99%

Georgia, 59%

Georgia, 79%

Russia, 55%

Russia, 71%

EU, 80%

Georgia, 56%

Russia, 59%

Russia, 74%

Georgia, 69%

Georgia, 100%

Russia, 17%

CIS

Georgia, 23%

30%

USA

Russia, 39%

Russia

USA, 35%

USA

Iran

Lebanon, 44%

USA

EU

Russia

EU

China

USA

USA

UАE

Georgia

Sing.

R

CIS

CIS

CIS

Tobacco & manuf. tobacco substitutes

Beverages, spirits and vinegar

Residues from food industries, animal feed

Misc. edible preparations

Cocoa and cocoa preparations

Sugars and sugar confectionery

Coffee, tea, mate and spices

Preparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk

Cereals, milling industry products, starches, inulin

Dairy produce, birds eggs, natural honey and edible products of animal origin

Animal or vegetable fats, oils and waxes

Other products of animal origin

Preps of vegs, fruits, nuts, etc.

Fish & crustaceans

Ed. prep. of meat, fish, crustaceans, etc.

Meat and edible meat offal

1211

10.9

10.8

10.8

10.8

10.8

10.7

10.6

10.5

10.4

10.4

10.3

10.2

10.1

,10

.210

.1

Page 21: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

FOREIGN TRADE

21

Despite a minor share of 7.5% in the total export of Armenia, Georgia is in the lead by most diversified export structure in terms of types of goods and is considered to be a major partner country due to the largest number of product groups.

Such active cooperation is mainly explained by Georgia’s being so far the only bordering country which trades with Armenia (comparatively low transport costs, time saving, re-export of some goods) and competitiveness of Armenian products in some subsectors.

Prevalence of Russia in total exports is primarily explained by the great share of exported alcoholic beverages (brandy, wine).

Only those product groups where import of food, beverages and tobacco has a minor share, are quoted.

Page 22: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

FOREIGN TRADE

22

Imports of Food, Beverages and Tobacco Products (HS classification) by Key Partner Countries, 2011

CIS other, 32%

Russia, 45%

EU, 66%

Russia, 42%

Russia, 44%

Brazil, 77%

Indonesia, 65%

Russia, 39%

Russia, 55%

CIS other, 35%

CIS other, 38%

EU, 98%

EU, 79%

EU, 39%

Ecuador, 33%

Vietnam, 24%

Canada, 46%

USA, 31%

Russia, 26%

EU, 29%

Russia

EU, 23

CIS other, 21%

EU

Vietnam

EU, 33%

CIS other, 25%

New Zealand, 30%

Russia, 33%

USA

China

EU

EU

Brazil, 19

India, 26%

EU

Brazil

Brazil

CIS

EU

CIS

Sri Lanka

CIS other, 21%

China

EU

EU

India

Israel,16

Iran

Canada

Russia

Brazil, 22%

Tobacco & manuf. tobacco substitutes

Beverages, spirits and vinegar

Residues from food industries, animal feed

Misc. edible preparations

Cocoa and cocoa preparations

Sugars and sugar confectionery

Coffee, tea, mate and spices

Preparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk

Cereals, milling industry products, starches, inulin

Dairy produce, birds eggs, natural honey and edible products of animal…

Animal or vegetable fats, oils and waxes

Oil seeds and oleaginous fruit; industrial plants, straw

Other products of animal origin

Preps of vegs, fruits, nuts, etc.

Edible fruits and nuts, peel of citrus/melons

Fish & crustaceans

Ed. prep. of meat, fish, crustaceans, etc.

Meat and edible meat offal

1211

10.9

10.8

10.8

10.8

10.8

10.7

10.6

10.5

10.4

10.4

10.4

10.3

10.3

10.2

10.1 -2

10.1

Page 23: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

FOREIGN TRADE

23

Imports breakdown by countries (as well as by product types) is more diversified than that of exports.

Imports of industry output from the 3 major partner countries are diversified

too, so that none of the product groups imported from these countries is predominating over the others by trade volumes.

Imports from the 3 largest partners mainly include the following items with the

biggest share: Russia mainly supplies alcoholic beverages and soft drinks, cocoa and cocoa

preparations (chocolate), oils and fats, tobacco products. CIS (other than Russia) countries supply tobacco products, oils and fats. EU countries supply primarily residues from food industry, alcoholic

beverages and soft drinks.

Only those product groups where import of food, beverages and tobacco has a minor share, are quoted.

Page 24: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

SUBSECTOR DEVELOPMENT EXPECTATIONS

24

Subsector Expectations for 3-5 Years by Product Groups

The chart illustrates averaged figures calculated according to the following scale: 1 - significant decrease, 2 - moderate decrease, 3 - even, 4 - moderate increase, 5 - significant increase

2.82

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.15

3.62

4.10

4.50

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

Manufacture of dairy products

Manufacture of fish products

Manufacture of grain mill products

Manufacture of bakery and farinaceousproducts

Manufacture of other food products

Manufacture of meat products

Manufacture of beverages

Processing and preserving of fruit andvegetables

Manufacture of oils and fats

Page 25: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

SUBSECTOR DEVELOPMENT BARRIERS

On the general, the specified barriers refer to the same issues which were listed as a prerequisite for the industry development.

Nonetheless, monopolists and unfair competition are considered to be the main bottlenecks hindering development of the industry.

Actually,

- Monopolists as a hindrance are mostly quoted by SMEs.

- Midsized and large companies mainly complain of adverse tax regulations.

25

Main Barriers of the Subsector according to the Surveyed Companies*

BARRIERS % of surveyed companies

1. Monopolists, unfair competition 19 2. Adverse tax regulations 12 3. Raw materials prices 10 4. Low buying capacity of population 8 5. Lack of Government promotion 7 6. Lack of funding 6 7. Price volatility 5 8. Underdeveloped agriculture 5 9. Decrease in the number of population 5 10 Lack of specialists 5 11. Poor quality control, fake products 5

* The surveyed companies specified the barriers independently giving free format answers, which were later grouped for analytical purposes. Each surveyed company specified up to 3 barriers.

Source: Survey of Food Processing Companies, Ameria 2012 For detailed information please see Annex 1.

Page 26: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

FOOD PROCESSING IN EU COUNTRIES

26 Source: Eurostat

The green pointers indicate the greatest value in the subsector.

The yellow pointers show the medium value.

The red pointers show the lowest value.

10.1 Processing and preserving of meat and production of meat products

10.2 Processing and preserving of fish, crustaceans and mollusks

10.3 Processing and preserving of fruit and vegetables

10.4 Vegetable and animal oils and fats 10.5 Manufacture of dairy products

10.6 Manufacture of grain mill products, starches and starch products

10.7 Manufacture of bakery and farinaceous products

10.8 Manufacture of other food products 11.0 Manufacture of beverages 12.0 Manufacture of tobacco products

10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 11 12EU 380 45 119 82 239 78 216 312 279 89Belgium 535 31 329 341 403 261 336 668 375 …Bulgaria 125 4 40 53 59 36 69 83 107 93Czech Republic 233 4 24 45 155 36 139 228 237 …Denmark 980 323 125 ... ... 73 230 360 295 228Germany 503 26 112 68 298 66 271 354 247 207Estonia 163 93 41 ... 253 ... 94 97 170 0Ireland 926 85 49 ... 792 ... 163 2442 659 …Greece 110 14 107 88 236 46 210 134 191 49Spain 416 93 168 210 197 59 162 216 334 22France 505 48 117 52 393 98 320 377 363 19Italy 334 37 149 90 252 77 310 278 247 11Cyprus 389 … 115 ... 268 67 408 80 305 …Latvia 145 73 21 ... 139 ... 80 80 134 …Lithuania 159 96 17 8 265 41 79 104 133 …Luxemburg 214 0 ... ... ... ... 379 ... 322 …Hungary 241 0 80 49 91 65 96 108 172 57Netherlands 493 42 270 304 532 121 250 682 283 193Austria 401 4 148 51 266 98 274 232 533 …Poland 290 39 83 32 158 38 102 164 184 87Portugal 201 103 49 93 143 48 164 134 272 16Romania 110 3 18 25 41 28 60 54 107 24Slovenia 303 … 50 ... 133 ... 153 117 152 0Slovakia 128 12 22 28 101 41 111 133 123 …Finland 447 44 64 17 418 73 195 269 227 …Sweden 385 … 116 ... 280 73 198 337 187 …UK 275 52 100 12 158 117 182 338 349 197Norway 939 948 91 72 504 87 218 273 ... 0Switzerland 522 … 25 57 639 62 276 652 321 …Croatia 273 18 ... ... 201 40 145 223 189 …Turkey 46 5 75 47 59 43 54 88 31 27

Armenia 9 0.0 7 0.2 26 23 49 33 53 10

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FORECASTS OF INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT TRENDS

Midterm Forecasts mln AMD

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The forecasts are based on:

- IMF, WB and RA Government forecasts and estimates – during calculation of macroeconomic indicators - Macroeconomic forecasts, subsector development trends over the recent years in Armenia and development expectations for the coming years – in relation to food products, beverages and tobacco

2011 2012 2013 forecast 2014 forecast 2015 forecast

GDP, at current prices 3 776 443 4 105 239 forec. 4 405 988 4 719 695 5 055 738

Processing industry, output 644 775 697 990 737 368 784 068 831 635

Manufacture of food 235 849 249 896 259 216 277 403 297 436

Manufacture of beverages 84 015 100 777 116 742 131 540 147 537

Manufacture of tobacco 16 193 25 420 27 773 29 980 32 230

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SUBSECTORS AT A GLANCE

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OVERVIEW AND THE ROLE OF MAIN PLAYERS OF FOOD PROCESSING INDUSTRY - by subsectors 10.1 - Processing and preserving of meat and production of meat products

10.3 - Processing and preserving of fruit and vegetables

10.4 - Vegetable and animal oils and fats

10.5 - Manufacture of dairy products

10.6 - Manufacture of grain mill products, starches and starch products

10.7 - Manufacture of bakery and farinaceous products

10.8 - Manufacture of other food products

11.0 - Manufacture of beverages

12.0 - Manufacture of tobacco products

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PROCESSING OF FRUIT AND VEGETABLES

About 25 companies are currently practicing processing and preserving of fruit and vegetables as their major activity. The output of the industry includes both preserved fruit and vegetables and natural juices. The total value of the output (net of VAT and excise taxes) in 2011 comprised 31.4 million USD, while the domestic market is about 82 million USD. The major players of the subsector are:

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Companies Value of output in 2012, bln AMD Share in the total output of the subsector in 2012, %

1 Artashat Cannery 2.8-3.2 ~26-29%

2 Euroterm 2.7-3.0 ~25-27%

3 Ararat Food Factory 1.3-1.5 ~12-14%

4 Nicola International, Armenia 1.0-1.2 ~9-11%

5 Sis Natural 1.0-1.2 ~9-11%

Processing and preserving of fruit and vegetables

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CONTENTS

Executive Summary 1. Macroeconomic Overview 2. Food Processing Industry

2.1. Food Manufacturing as Part of Processing Industry 2.2. Number of Companies Engaged 2.3. Number of Employees Involved 2.4. Volumes of Production: Subsectors and Marzes 2.5. Foreign Trade 2.6. Subsector Production Stages, Developments Expectations 2.7. Subsector Development Prerequisites, Barriers and Risks

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CONTENTS

2.8. Comparative Analysis with EU Countries and Russia 2.9. Subsectors at a Glance, Main Players

3. Field Regulations 4. Forecasts of Industry Development Trends Annex 1. Overview of Main Players Annex 2. Companies Survey Results Annex 3. Outlets Survey Results

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Page 32: FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR IN ARMENIA · INTRODUCTION Ameria CJSC has started a series of comprehensive researches in various sectors of Armenian economy. In particular, the first researches

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