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Prof. Carmine Garzia June 26, 2020 Food Industry Monitor Food is Health. Competitive scenarios in the food industry

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ACQUA Performance analysis and forecasting
Business model analysis. Health innovation and performance
Agenda
Flours Oil
3
Sources: EU Commission (May 6)
The evolution of the food sector is closely linked to the evolution of GDP (IC= 0.8-0.9)
Performance analysis - Food growth vs. GDP
2,4%
3,9%
5
*2019, 2020, 2021: forecast
Food Revenues Italian Companies
Scenario assumptions: return to pre-COVID consumption levels starting July 2020, no second waves, no financial shocks
6
6,1% 6,4%
6,6% 6,3%
6,0% 6,2%
5,9% 6,0%
Trade margin - ROS
9,6% 9,9%
10,2% 9,7%
9,2% 9,6%
9,0% 9,4%
Return on Investment - ROIC
*2019, 2020, 2021: forecast
2,58 2,48
Initial rate of indebtedness
*2019, 2020, 2021: forecast
Average Indebtedness Rate
*sweets, oil and beer ICS not calculated
© 2020 Carmine Garzia - Food Industry Monitor - All Rights Reserved
Sector average: 11
SALUMI
SURGELATI
10
*2020, 2021: forecast
Industry average: 2.9%.
*Independent variable: Real GDP
3,0%
5,2%
5,9%
7,4%
8,3%
8,6%
10,9%
11,0%
12,0%
13,1%
15,1%
26,6%
OIL
PASTA
PRESERVES
SAUCE
PACKAGING
WINE
MILK
COFFEE
Industry average: 10.6%.
*2020, 2021: forecast
42 web titles analyzed, 60% international
Period of observation: 2015-2019
Content analysis - Objectives and structure
© 2020 Carmine Garzia - Food Industry Monitor - All Rights Reserved
2,99%
7,28%
7,46%
9,33%
9,51%
13,99%
14,74%
16,98%
17,72%
Health foods
13
14
1,53%
1,53%
1,92%
2,30%
8,43%
10,73%
15,33%
18,01%
40,23%
Innovation
Market potential
Content analysis - Topic trends
15
14,7%
19,3%
16,8%
13,6%
24,3%
Food Safety
16
Health foods
17
Traditionality
benefits of foods
History of cuisine
Numbers of market
Topic sulla Tradizione
Topic sull’Innovazione
Content analysis - Perceptual positioning of topics and strategic clusters
© 2020 Carmine Garzia - Food Industry Monitor - All Rights Reserved
Health products may have one or more of the following characteristics:
contain raw materials of organic origin
raw materials are subjected to clean transformation processes
do not contain artificial additives and preservatives
may have functional health benefits
Business models - Healthy offer
18,3%
21,3%
28,4%
29,4%
41,0%
45,0%
52,8%
57,2%
57,8%
Coffee
Sweets
Water
Pasta
Oil
Flours
Presence of products on total range of products offered by Italian companies
Business models - Healthy offer
20
78,8%
74,4%
60,8%
47,2%
46,8%
19,3%
18,4%
23,1%
35,8%
44,6%
45,9%
73,4%
2,8%
2,5%
3,5%
8,2%
7,3%
7,3%
Organic
Traditionality
Low Average High
21
Only 20% of companies do communication on the functional benefits of health products
22
© 2020 Carmine Garzia - Food Industry Monitor - All Rights Reserved
7,4%
4,6%
Innovation and sales profitability (ROS 2018)
*Calculations performed with unstandardized beta of the scalar variable health communication transformed into a dummy variable
23
© 2020 Carmine Garzia - Food Industry Monitor - All Rights Reserved
10,4%
8,3%
*Calculations performed with unstandardized beta of the scalar variable health communication transformed into a dummy variable
24
© 2020 Carmine Garzia - Food Industry Monitor - All Rights Reserved
*Productivity: Revenues / tangible fixed assets
7,2
6,5
*Calculations performed with unstandardized beta of the scalar variable health communication transformed into a dummy variable
25
© 2020 Carmine Garzia - Food Industry Monitor - All Rights Reserved
Healthy products
9,10
9,68
This research report is based on public data and data collected from restricted access databases, which were processed by a team of
researchers at the University of Gastronomic Sciences in Pollenzo, Bra.
Representative samples of the various sectors of the food industry were constructed by extracting companies with ATECO codes, and all the
companies identified in this way were checked to verify the congruity of the activity carried out with the sector to which they belonged.
The financial statements of the companies were acquired from the AIDA and CERVED databases in optical format and were reclassified
according to the financial statement formats currently in use in the context of economic-business analysis.
The report was written by Prof. Carmine Garzia in collaboration with Dr. Francesco Maria Gentile who coordinated the research team for the
collection of questionnaires, the construction of databases and statistical processing. The research team, composed of: Margherita Testa, Sofia
Eleonora D'angelo and Pier Lorenzo Rolando, carried out the collection of empirical data on business models and strategic choices of
companies.
The research project was carried out with the support of Ceresio Investors.
The computations were based on public budget data available as of 5/25/2020. The report was closed as of 06/20/2020.
http://www.foodindustrymonitor.com
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METHODOLOGY