Issued May 2013

A magazine of the Hamburg Cluster of Excellence “Integrated Climate System Analysis and Prediction“ (CliSAP)

Focus on Climate

When do we call science a success?

Expanding our knowledge and allowing us to see the world we live in more

clearly – that’s what successful research should achieve. Or should more

concrete results, e.g. findings that make our lives more comfortable and

solve social problems, be what count most? Or should we consider research

to be a success when it gains recognition and is rewarded with additional

funding?

The German Research Foundation (DFG) recently voted to finance our

Cluster of Excellence for another five years – a decision prompted by our solid

scientific work and because we have succeeded in promoting new struc-

tures in both research and the interdisciplinary education of our students.

Our efforts yield new findings on the climate forecast for the next ten

or twenty years, and on potential developments that will become appar-

ent in this century and those that follow. In this context, questions arise

that are important to us all: How will societies respond to climate changes?

How much adjustment will be needed, and what changes can be avoided?

In order to arrive at meaningful answers, we need unbiased, fundamental

research that is free to unlock its creative potential. At the same time, our

research provides the basis for concrete decisions: Do we need higher

embankments, and should we expand emissions trading? Which conflicts

will there be over resources like water and land? Is climate protection a drain

on the economy, or a boost to it?

In this magazine we’ll show you what types

of scenarios – both scientific and social – our

researchers are currently discussing. After all,

this goes along perfectly with the work of our

Hamburg-based Cluster of Excellence, bringing

together classic environmental disciplines like

meteorology and oceanography with sociology,

economics and peace research.

Professor Martin Claußen, Speaker

of the Cluster of Excellence CliSAP

Contents

4 picturing the future

Land, ocean and atmosphere:

Better and better models show the

influence of the climate yesterday,

today and tomorrow

43 The Cluster of Excellence

4 partners, 20 institutes, more than 250 bright minds –CliSAP combines and networks

climate research in Hamburg

47 Imprint

14 identifying trends The right mix:

Top-notch science combined with

dependable social analyses

34 promoting climate research

Diversity is a plus:

Climate research profits from

the unconventional

35 Career or calling?

A conversation with the gender

affairs representatives Beate Ratter

and Michael Köhl

38 Taking your baby to conferences

Johanna Baehr: Approaching challenges

with academic ambition

38 Parallel careers

Valerio Lucarini: How he and his partner

benefit from the Dual Career Program

39 Compromises instead of solutions

Andreas Schmidt: Grandparents and

friends support his career

40 A physicist working in biology

How algae can be integrated in

climate models

15 “We can afford it”

Hermann Held and Uwe Schneider

of the Research Unit Sustainability

and Global Change

20 Hotspot: Himalayas

A new project pools the expertise

of three different disciplines

23 Under water – or high and dry?

The sea level won’t rise the same

everywhere

28 Climate change – a media spectacle?

This hot topic influences both politics

and public opinion

32 Where do we put the CO2?

New climate calculations also integrate

the carbon cycle

5 A heater for Northern Europe

The circulator pump in the North

Atlantic warms our latitudes. But

will it stay stable?

8 When rainforests become farmland

Human beings have been changing

the climate for centuries, depending

on the type of land use

4 Ozean 5Ocean

The North Atlantic is home to a huge circulator pump that channels warmth

to Europe. But how stable is it, and what will happen if it breaks down?

Climate researchers in Hamburg are investigating the processes at work and

developing forecasts.

A heater for Northern EuropeHow the ocean regulates our climate

Idyllic marinas, picturesque fi shing towns, white sands,

palm trees and water the color of turquoise. The perfect

setting for a creamy café au lait and a croissant on a Medi-

terranean beach? No, here the locals prefer cream tea with

clotted cream, which is accompanied by warm scones and

marmalade or honey. Here British tea culture is par for the

course, because we’re talking about Cornwall, in the far-

thest southwest corner of England. Its mild climate and

Mediterranean fl air are thanks to the Gulf Stream, North-

ern Europe’s heater.

The Gulf Stream is part of a larger system of currents

in the North Atlantic. Powered by the wind, it transports

warm water from the ocean’s surface in the Gulf of Mexico

to Europe’s Norwegian Sea and even the Arctic. Along the

way it transfers heat to the atmosphere, warming the air.

“That’s why you’ll hardly ever see minus temperatures in

Britain, and why many harbors in Norway remain ice-free,

even in the deepest winter,” explains Professor Johanna

Baehr of the CliSAP research group “Climate System Data

Assimilation.” As the water fl ows northwards, it grows

colder and heavier, beginning to sink at certain points.

When ice forms, the salt in the water is left behind, mak-

ing the water even heavier. In the fi nal stage of the cycle

the cold, heavy and salty water, now deep in the ocean,

makes its way back southwards.

That’s why climate researchers often speak of a vertical

heat circulation in the Atlantic. According to Baehr, “The

motor is the sinking dense water. The colder it is and the

higher its salt content, the denser and heavier it is, and

therefore the deeper it sinks.” But what makes the motor

run? “If we didn’t have any heat transport in the ocean,

the Equator would get hotter and hotter, while the poles

would get increasingly frigid,” explains Baehr’s colleague,

Professor Detlef Quadfasel. The explanation: Thanks to

increased solar radiation, regions along the Equator are

absorbing more energy than they refl ect back. And in the

polar regions just the opposite is true; they lose out on

their energy exchange. To balance these factors out, excess

heat from the Equator has to be transported to the higher

latitudes. In the atmosphere water droplets and air cur-

rents do their part, and the ocean takes care of the rest.

Water is the best thermal conductor.

But global warming can imbalance these delicate pro-

cesses in the ocean, further changing our climate in the

process: If the atmosphere grows hotter, it also warms

the upper layers of the ocean. If freshwater in the form

of meltwater is then added to the equation, the ocean’s

salt content will drop, too, making the ocean water less

dense. When that less dense water expands, it produces

rising sea levels. At the same time, the water no longer ›

picturing

the future

76 Ocean Ocean

way south from the Norwegian Sea, cold water spills over

this underwater mountain ridge like the edge of a saucer

before continuing into the depths of the Atlantic. “Though

we haven’t seen a drop in average water transport for the

last 15 years, that’s no guarantee that things won’t change

in the next 15 years.”

In fact, over the last 50 years the surface temperature of

the ocean has risen by an average of 0.6 degrees Celsius.

The Labrador Sea between southern Greenland and Can-

ada’s Labrador Peninsula, where water from the North

Atlantic again cools considerably and sinks to deeper

waters, is now roughly two degrees warmer than it was

20 years ago. However, ocean temperatures can vary con-

siderably, especially in the North Atlantic. “These varia-

tions are a problem for us,” claims Quadfasel. “If this type

of period lasts 30 years, where the temperature rises for 15

years and drops for 15 years, and we just happen to record

ten years when it’s rising, of course it will look like massive

warming to us.” But every process involved has its own

timetable and its own dynamic. “That’s why we have to

be careful about jumping to conclusions,” the oceanog-

rapher emphasizes.

› sinks as deep. “It’s true that we’ll always have the

Gulf Stream, as long as the wind blows in the same direc-

tion and the world keeps turning. But the circulation of

water into the depths of the North Atlantic could falter,”

claims Johanna Baehr. If our planet grows two degrees Cel-

sius warmer over the next 100 years, climate researchers

predict that the Gulf Stream will lose roughly 30 percent

of its power. The result: In northwestern Europe this could

produce a drop in temperature of one to two degrees

Celsius. A welcome change of pace from global warming?

“Theoretically yes,” says Baehr, “but northwestern Europe

isn’t the whole world. In warmer latitudes there might be

no such compensation.”

But 100 years is a long time. When are the currents

expected to start slowing down? Probably not tomorrow,

as Baehr and colleagues from the Hamburg-based Max

Planck Institute for Meteorology recently determined; they

expect the North Atlantic pump to keep working as usual

until at least 2014. The oceanographers work together to

prepare so-called “decadal forecasts” which cover several

years. These forecasts represent a new scientific challenge,

as they are neither short-term forecasts nor long-term

projections, but a combination of the two. “That’s why

we need tools from both disciplines to create the decadal

forecasts,” explains Baehr.

As such, the oceanographers combine observational data

with numerical climate models; the latter describe long-

term physical processes in the form of mathematical equa-

tions. The new models used for decadal forecasts essen-

tially start with observational data, which helps them

to quantify the past, before running calculations for the

future. And they get the job done: The first such forecasts

proved accurate – observations confirmed the short-term

flow fluctuations predicted in the North Atlantic for 2010.

In his research on the Scotland-Greenland Ridge, Detlef

Quadfasel has also identified flow fluctuations. On its

Quadfasel is also quick to point out that even appar-

ently unimportant aspects have to be properly interpreted.

“Some fairly unassuming processes end up produc-

ing major effects. For example, when water flows over

the ocean floor, the friction produced creates small

turbulences, which serve to mix the water. Without this

mixing at the micro-scale, the circulation system in our

ocean would completely break down.”

The ocean not only stores heat; it also absorbs green-

house gases. Right now it is sucking in roughly half of the

carbon dioxide produced by automobiles and industrial

smokestacks. But even the ocean has its limits. According

to Quadfasel, “Our ocean can absorb CO2 for a few more

centuries; then it will be full.” When in addition the ocean

temperatures begin to rise, this process is likely to accel-

erate; warm water can’t take in as much atmospheric CO2

as cold water. Further, billions of tons of methane ice are

lying on the ocean floor – and are sleeping more or less

peacefully, provided that water remains cold and heavy.

But if the temperatures begin to rise, the ice will trans-

form into gaseous methane, which will be released into

the water and atmosphere. As a powerful greenhouse gas,

it could then accelerate global warming even more. The

ocean would warm even faster, releasing even more meth-

ane into the air – a self-reinforcing process.

The North Atlantic in living color, the

continents in brown – visualizations

like this one on water temperatures

help to make measurements and fore-

casts more concrete.

Our ocean can absorb CO2 for a few

more centuries; then it will be full.

Expeditions provide researchers with

real measurements. When this data is

combined with long-term climate models,

it allows them to make complex forecasts

on the next few years.

The North Atlantic pump is

still up and running ... for now.

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Temperature

Depth: 5 m

° Celsius

8 9Land Use

Roughly two-thirds of the Earth’s land surface is covered with vegetation. Whether

forests, plains or pastures – the climate can change, depending on how we use the

land. And that’s nothing new, as climate researchers in Hamburg know.

Land Use

When rainforests become farmland Climate change without the industry

1110 11

A ctually, the usual suspects for climate change have

long since been identified: With the greenhouse gas-

es they pump out, power plants, cars, lawnmowers, refrig-

erators and practically every other modern convenience

known to man are steadily warming our planet. Ever since

the Industrial Revolution, the carbon dioxide levels in our

atmosphere have been climbing steadily – and the state

of our climate has continued to decline. Yet with the help

of model-based simulations, Dr. Julia Pongratz has deter-

mined that, thanks to increased land use, the CO2 levels

had also risen significantly centuries earlier, though there

were no major global consequences at the time.

Professor Martin Claußen, Director of the Max Planck

Institute for Meteorology and Head of the Land in the Earth

System Department, explains why this happened: “Many

forested areas had to be cleared to make way for agricul-

ture. But forests can store far more carbon than wheat

fields and cow pastures can.” Between 800 and 1850 –

the timeframe Pongratz researched – the global popula-

tion tripled to roughly one billion people. More farmland

was needed, so many forests had to go. Today the situa-

tion has become more drastic than ever, especially in the

tropics: The world is hungry for more wood and farmland

– with predictable results for the environment.

This involves the combination of several processes. First

of all, at the local level vegetation can greatly influence

not only energy and water exchange processes, but also

airflows near the surface. For example, bright wheat fields

reflect more light than dark forests do, and have a cool-

ing effect. And, though wind can rush right over plains, it

has a tougher time penetrating forests. “The climate close

to ground level is different between farmlands and for-

ests. Forest climates are like sea climates: cooling in the

day, warming at night, and a bit damp in dry-weather

Following the Mongol invasion,

China’s climate cooled.

phases,” says Claußen. Secondly, vegetation has a major

impact on carbon and greenhouse-gas levels. In their

growth phases and during photosynthesis, plants take in

significant quantities of carbon dioxide from the atmo-

sphere: “Wood is nothing but carbon, and forests are just

giant CO2 depots.”

Depending on the type of forest in question, these

effects can either amplify or partially cancel each other

out. For our climate it makes a difference whether tropi-

cal forests or northern coniferous forests are cleared. When

parts of the tropical rainforests are lost, atmospheric CO2

levels climb and there is less water vapor close to ground

level, making local conditions drier and warmer. It’s a dif-

ferent story up north: Though cutting down these forests

would also mean higher CO2 levels, if the flat landscape

ing them more “orderly.” In an upcoming project, Julia

Pongratz will work together with Professor Michael Köhl,

head of the CliSAP working group “Forest and Climate,” to

explore how much these differences affect the physical

characteristics of forests.

Human beings have kept livestock and practiced agri-

culture for roughly 10,000 years now, and intensively since

the early 19th century. Unfortunately, attempting to recon-

struct the historical development of land use and vege-

tation is practically impossible. However, information on

population density, which is at least partially available,

can provide valuable orientation: The more people who

live in a certain region, the more food they need, which

translates into more cropland and pastures for grazing.

The fields of archeology and geology also offer vital clues.

“Finds from field research help us to verify our models,”

explains Martin Claußen. ›

left behind is then covered with snow it will reflect more

light than it did as a forest – and the climate will grow

cooler. Or, to put it another way: Tropical forests cool our

environment, while northern forests warm it.

Does that mean we can lessen the impacts of cli-

mate change by re-naturalizing certain areas and replant-

ing forests? Possibly, as can be seen in an example from

Pongratz’s simulations: When the Mongols invaded China

in the Middle Ages, wiping out the population in many

areas, it effectively crippled local agriculture for decades.

The natural vegetation returned and, since it absorbed

more carbon dioxide from the air, China’s climate cooled.

But is a man-made forest the same as a naturally

formed one? Whereas natural forests are usually home to

a wide range of different tree and plant species of differ-

ent ages, man-made forests tend to be characterized by

more uniform age structures and less underbrush, mak-

The demand for more farmland is decimating the

rainforests – with global repercussions. But our

climate is also changing at the local level: Because

there is less water vapor close to ground level,

it’s getting warmer and drier. At the same time,

lighter-colored patches of land can have a cooling

effect, as they reflect back more sunlight.

The Sahara’s last green phase was five to ten

thousand years ago. Once the region was home to

farmland and livestock, and the future could see

these conditions return. But if the Earth grows too

hot, the desert will expand instead.

Land UseLand Use

When seven billion people have to share

one planet, there’s not always room for

forests. But when no natural green is to

be found, creative solutions thrive.

1312 Land Use

Confiscated wood is closely guarded. With its

major “Arc of Fire” program in 2008, the

Brazilian government sent a clear signal

against illegal logging in the Amazon region.

Clearing forests for new farmland, here in

Indonesia: When global climate protection

clashes with local interests, conflicts can be

the result.

The tropical rainforests are home to the

most diverse range of species in the world.

Although they only cover seven percent of

the Earth’s surface, an estimated 70 percent

of all plant and animal species live there.

“fed” more CO2 and would grow more lushly. “But if the

climate grows too hot and dry, the Sahara will expand, and

then even the extra CO2 won’t help anymore.”

So as to better grasp the interplay between land, cli-

mate and humans, Hamburg’s climate researchers are

increasingly using satellite data. “We want to know how

people are using the land in Africa, Europe or India in

detail,” says Claußen. Swedish researchers have proven

that, following a dry phase in the 1980s, the Sahel became

greener, despite the fact that the land had also been more

intensively used for agriculture during that time. “Appar-

ently, the simple equation that land use automatically

means destroying vegetation isn’t perfectly right. At the

same time, we can’t tell what kind of green the satellite

is picking up, whether it’s an open field or a forest.” Fur-

ther, an interdisciplinary CliSAP project headed by the

peace researcher Professor Jürgen Scheffran will research

the conflict potential between nomads and sedentary

farmers. And how do living conditions change for the

inhabitants of desert regions when huge arrays of solar

cells are installed there? CliSAP researchers are working

together with the DESERTEC Foundation, which is current-

ly organizing such a project in Northern Africa, to effectively

answer this question.

Land Use

› Take the Sahara for example: The atmosphere-and-

vegetation models produced by the Max Planck Institute

in Hamburg show that in response to natural climate fluc-

tuations, oases and larger grassy areas have formed in the

desert, time and time again. The last green phase was five

to ten thousand years ago. Rock art finds confirm that

agriculture and animal husbandry were once common in

the Sahara; lime deposits and pollen found in sediments

also indicate both animal and vegetable life. Claußen’s

cooperation partner, the Cologne-based geoarcheolo-

gist Dr. Stefan Kröpelin, has also discovered a veritable

“climate archive” in the most arid part of the Sahara: Sedi-

ment samples taken from the bottom of Lake Yoa in north-

east Chad tell the tale of the region’s past flora and fauna.

Apparently, then, in the past the rule was: the warmer

the climate, the greener the Sahara became. In other

words, not only does vegetation influence our climate, but

the climate has also always shaped vegetation. Then what

will the future look like, in the wake of global warming?

Meteorologists working in Hamburg are among the few

to use dynamic atmosphere-and-vegetation models: If

the climate is changed in the simulations, the vegetation

immediately follows suit. And Claußen’s simulations pre-

dict a green future: “Let’s assume the atmosphere grows

four or five degrees Celsius warmer – which is feasible if we

keep putting out so much greenhouse gas – but the land

is not used any more intensively than today. Then it would

become greener around the globe, even in the Sahara,”

the meteorologist explains. In addition, plants would be

Wood is nothing but carbon,

and forests are just giant CO2 depots.

If the mean temperature on Earth

rose by four degrees Celsius,

the planet would become greener –

even in the deserts.

1514 Ozean Economics14

Economists and those who want to pro-

tect the climate don’t always get along.

Are their interests really so far apart?

Held: For a very long time, the two

groups assumed they were in diamet-

rically opposed positions. Climate activ-

ists want to save our future, and they

want to do it right away. In contrast,

economists fi rst of all tend to feel that

there’s no real rush, and secondly that

we still can’t be sure these actions will

do any good. That being said, using

pure cost-benefi t analysis in climate

economics defi nitely has its weakness-

es, because it’s hard to predict the costs

that climate damages will entail. Fur-

ther, climate economists can’t agree

on how our current efforts should be

weighed against the benefi ts for future

generations. But if we want to limit

global warming to two degrees Celsius

over the preindustrial level, we need

to invest in a new energy system now –

even if we might not see the effects for

another 100 years.

“We can afford it” The economics of climate change

The current levels of greenhouse

gas emissions are worse than those

assumed in the IPCC’s bleakest scenar-

ios. Would the necessary adjustments

be fi nancially ruinous?

Held: We need two things: adjustment

measures to refl ect climate change, and

strategies to limit its effects – and we’re

still trying to determine the right mix.

Like many other climate economists,

we at the KlimaCampus in Hamburg use

cost-benefi t analyses, which introduce

the aspect of sustainability. In coupled

climate-energy economic models, so

far we haven’t incorporated climate

damage, but instead climate goals.

How much will it cost to achieve the

2-degree goal, especially given the con-

siderable uncertainties involved? How

much will new technologies cost? And

how much less expensive will above

all bioenergy be in terms of mass pro-

duction?

identifying

trends

And how much will it cost?

Held: Switching our energy system

would cost the global community

roughly one percent of the combined

gross national product every year.

Is that a little or a lot?

Held: Economists can’t quite agree on

that question. But the majority of them

say: We can afford it – and that means

that both climate activists and econo-

mists can more or less be satisfi ed.

Do we have to choose between climate

protection and economic growth?

Held: No, because the costs of switching

to a climate neutral energy system would

only delay growth by a few months.

Further, we’re talking about an impor-

tant goal for all of us: Since no-one

knows for sure just what effects it will

have if the mean global temperature

rises by more than two degrees, we’re

investing in preventive measures. ›

Physicist and climate economist Professor Hermann Held

and agricultural economist Dr. Uwe Schneider of the

Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change discuss the

costs, benefi ts and effectiveness of climate protection.

16 17EconomicsEconomics

ments from business and national trea-

suries – away from coal and towards

climate-neutral energies.

Opinions are split when it comes to

underground CO2 storage: Society is

afraid of the risks, while big business

is dragging its feet. How important is

this type of climate protection?

Held: Carbon capture and storage could

help to make the necessary transition

from fossil fuels to renewable energies a

bit smoother, and could reduce the costs

for new equipment. But more impor-

tantly: If renewable energies should

What opportunities do agro-energy

products like biogas or biofuel offer?

Schneider: Agriculture can profit from

them. If there’s more demand for bio-

energy, the value of farmland and pric-

es for agricultural products will rise, and

with them the incomes for farmers. In

industrialized countries, this could

make farmers less dependent on sub-

sidies.

But is bioenergy good for the climate?

Schneider: It depends on the location,

the type of technology used, and the

political situation. ›

turn out to be unexpectedly expensive

or to cause side-effects, carbon stor-

age could offer us a backup plan. Fur-

ther, the use of bioenergy followed by

carbon capture and storage is current-

ly the only technology that allows us to

halfway affordably draw carbon dioxide

from the atmosphere. That way, if we

reduced emissions too slowly in the first

half of the century – and right now that

looks fairly realistic –, we could still

catch up in the second half, achieving

the 2-degree goal.

One billion people don’t have enough to

eat – and biofuels are making food

even more expensive. But if the demand

continues to grow, poorer regions could

theoretically also benefit: The value of

farmland would rise, together with prices

and incomes, and the food situation would

improve.

A staple food in Mexico: Over the last

few years, tortilla prices have risen

considerably, because the USA has

intensified the use of maize as a source

of ethanol.

Biogas facilities are controversial:

Though the gas can be burnt

climate neutrally, producing the

plants often involves consuming

additional energy.

Switching our energy system

would cost the global community

roughly one percent of the

combined gross national product

every year.

› Schneider: Economic growth is still

measured on the basis of the gross

national product (GNP). But the pur-

pose of a society is not to increase the

GNP at any price, but to sustainably

improve the wellbeing of its members.

Studies show: Even when the GNP

grows, societal wellbeing can stagnate

or even decline. As far back as 1968, in a

speech at the University of Kansas Rob-

ert F. Kennedy claimed that the gross

national product measured everything

“except that which makes life worth-

while.” Unfortunately, that insight

hasn’t yet influenced politics.

How can we explain to newly indus-

trialized countries like Brazil, China or

India that happiness and wellbeing

have less to do with economic growth

and more with sustainable climate

protection?

Held: Right now that’s tough, because

it touches on their basic fear of regress-

ing back to where they once were. But

if established industrial countries dem-

onstrated that it’s possible to affordably

and sustainably switch to a new ener-

gy system, then we could make seri-

ous headway in the newly industrial-

ized countries.

How could that be done?

Held: If Europe wants to cost-effectively

make the 2-degree goal a reality and to

use renewable energy sources to do so,

it will soon need a new energy network.

For instance, it would make good sense

to “harvest” solar energy in the south

during the summer and wind energy in

the north in winter, and to distribute

the energy as needed, using biomass

energy to fill the gaps. But so far, Euro-

pean countries have remained squarely

national in their orientation.

New energy production technologies

don’t come cheap. Who pays for them?

Held: The energy sector has never been

cheap. The point now is to shift invest-

Even when the economy grows,

societal wellbeing can stagnate or decline.

18 19Economics

A billion people around the world

are going hungry, and some claim

that biofuels are making things even

worse. Are they right?

Schneider: They’re partly right. But

hunger is first and foremost an econom-

ic problem. Globally speaking there’s

enough food for all, but for many it’s

just too expensive. If bioenergy can suc-

ceed in boosting the incomes of farmers

in poorer countries, it might even make

the food situation better.

Does energy harnessed from farmland

raise food prices?

Schneider: Unfortunately yes. In

wealthy industrialized countries, a great

deal of food winds up in the trash – so

food prices are apparently too low. In

contrast, there can definitely still be

food shortages in developing countries.

For instance, over the past few years

the prices for tortillas, a staple food in

Mexico, have risen because the USA has

pushed for more ethanol production

using maize.

Who should ultimately manage all

this? Politicians or the market?

Schneider: Politics has to ensure that

companies take potential harm into

account when making decisions; this

can be done by providing environmental

goals. But the market should continue

to determine which technologies are

best to achieve those goals.

Then what’s holding up the emissions

trading that politicians called for?

Held: For one thing, some sectors in

Europe are not involved and some com-

› The wrong subsidies can result in a

negative energy and climate balance

– you invest more energy than you get

back out.

Further, land use often produces

indirect climate effects: For instance,

it makes no sense whatsoever to clear

and burn rainforests and replace them

with palm oil plantations. When slash-

and-burn methods are used, hun-

dreds of tons of carbon per hectare

are released into the atmosphere, not

to mention the important ecosystems

that are destroyed in the process. Poli-

ticians should work to protect all valu-

able ancient forests and ecosystems

around the globe.

Globally speaking there’s

enough food for all, but for

many it’s just too expensive.

Land use can have negative impacts on the

climate: When land is cleared, forests

that stabilized CO2 levels are lost. When

rainforests have to make way for palm oil

plantations, it also means destroying

important ecosystems.

Economics

panies have simply shifted their “dirty”

production activities to other countries.

For another, this trading hasn’t really

been thought through to the end. To

what extent can Europe practice emis-

sions trading without harming itself?

The more global players band together

in “climate protection coalitions,” the

more ambitiously they can implement

climate protection without the need for

international agreements. If a world-

wide agreement were then signed

after all and Europe already had a cli-

mate neutral energy system in place, it

would have a clear economic advan-

tage. But if the global community won’t

join in, expensive new forms of energy

will mean a drain on our economies.

So it will all depend on whether or not

Europe can find additional allies.

What are you working on in this regard

at the Cluster of Excellence?

Held: With the help of models, we’re

investigating the interactions between

climate change on the one hand and

options in agricultural and energy pol-

icy on the other. How is climate change

affecting the development of bio-

energy? Will land prices change? When

regions in the south become more arid,

does it make good sense to “plaster”

them with solar parks? Hyung Sik Choi,

a PhD candidate in my working group, is

currently exploring exactly that question.

How much uncertainty is there in the

models?

Held: The uncertainties are still consid-

erable. In my opinion, right now there’s

no convincing economic model that can

When regions in the south become

more arid, does it make good sense

to “plaster” them with solar parks?

Prof. Dr. Herrmann Held (top)

and Dr. Uwe Schneider test their

theories with the help of concrete

business questions.

and Technology on business models

to slow the destruction of the rainfor-

ests. Master’s student Antje Schütz, who

we advise together with our colleagues

from the business sciences and CliSAP’s

security researchers, is exploring the

question of why some firms make an

effort to prevent global warming, while

others don’t. How do companies invest,

given the uncertainties? What do inves-

tors expect for the future? And our PhD

candidate from Colombia, Martha Bolivar,

is investigating the impacts of climate

change on water shortages and water

management in her home country. How

can we counteract these impacts? Are

dams the right solution?

Schneider: Our research findings also

help to shape politics. For example the

results of a project we cooperated in

moved the EU Commission to update its

guidelines for land use to better reflect

climate protection goals.

combine two key factors while achiev-

ing the 2-degree goal: investment

security and new scientific insights that

could move us to fundamentally change

our current course. This creates more

uncertainty about regulations, which

is poison for investments. Delf Neu-

bersch, another PhD candidate in my

group, and I are currently using estab-

lished methods as the basis for a com-

bined procedure that should ultimately

provide more investment security.

That’s very theoretical. What about the

practical applications?

Held: We use concrete questions from

the field of business to verify our the-

ories: For example, our PhD candidate

Elena Mechik is working together with

the European Institute of Innovation

20 21Himalayas20

Hotspot: Himalayas A new project brings the disciplines together

Home to breathtaking glaciers and dubbed the “roof of the

world”: The Himalayan Mountains are unique and shape

the surrounding countries – geologically, politically and

culturally. But also through their influence on the climate.

What will climate change mean for the region?

The peaks of the Himalayas are among

the highest points on Earth. As such,

they form a barrier that blocks moist

air from the Indian Ocean, playing an

important part in generating mon-

soon circulation on the Indian subcon-

tinent. At the same time, the northern

side stops the icy winds from the Arctic,

keeping them from cooling the lands

to the south.

The glaciers supply major rivers like

the Indus, the Ganges and the Brah-

maputra, which in turn provide fresh-

shortages, it could make the neigh-

boring states into competitors. How

can nearby countries like e.g. the con-

flicting neighbors India and Pakistan

work together in responding to these

new challenges? And what about the

affected populaces? Conflict research

explores the factors that determine why

some local groups develop adjustment

strategies, while others choose to leave

their homes.

Meanwhile the social scientist

Giovanna Gioli, a guest researcher at

CliSAP, is taking a closer look at the con-

nection between climate change and

migration. In addition to droughts

and flooding, so-called “Glacial Lake

Outburst Floods” (GLOFs) are a fur-

ther threat to local living conditions. In

many glacial lakes, meltwater has mas-

sively raised the water level; as a result,

their walls can suddenly burst under

the additional strain. When environ-

mental changes jeopardize the farm-

land, pastures and livestock of moun-

tain peoples, most often the men seek

work in other regions to raise money

and support their families. This means

that entire regions have to change their

conventional ways of life, with far-

reaching social consequences.

The three researchers work closely

with local institutions. These include

the Sustainable Development Policy

Institute (SDPI) in Islamabad, Pakistan

and the Nepal-based International

Centre for Integrated Mountain Devel-

opment (ICIMOD) founded in 1983, the

eight members of which are spread

throughout the Himalayas and the

Hindu Kush range.

In Bhutan, the outburst of a glacial lake was successfully

avoided: Over a span of five years, a force of 1,000 workers

managed to reduce the water level by five meters.

According to Tibetan shepherds, over the last 30 years grass

has been harder and harder to find. Today they have

to use much larger pasture areas to keep their animals fed.

Beautiful but dangerous: When melting

glacial ice causes lake waters to rise too

quickly, the walls can burst, putting local

mountain peoples at serious risk.

water that the surrounding countries

depend on. Here you’ll find the region’s

grain lands, one of the largest agri-

cultural areas in the world. The gla-

ciers also influence the water supply in

more remote regions of China and Cen-

tral Asia.

And what about climate change? The

meteorologist Valerio Lucarini expects

the dynamics of monsoons to change,

as a result of which droughts and flood-

ing will become more common. The

effects on the mass balance in glaciers

When living conditions worsen, it’s most

often the men who seek work in other

regions – with far-reaching social conse-

quences.

will be mixed: While they are melting

in the eastern Himalayas, other areas,

where the precipitation will increase

and temperatures will drop, will soon

have more ice. Using the PLASIM model

developed at the KlimaCampus and in

close cooperation with local experts,

he is currently investigating the phys-

ical mechanisms at work in these pro-

cesses. Together, the group is exploring

the water cycle in southern Asia, with a

focus on potential impacts for the most

important catchment areas.

“Overall, climate changes will clearly

have repercussions for this sensitive

region,” says Professor Jürgen Scheffran.

“CliSAP offers the unique opportunity to

examine this hotspot from various per-

spectives – creating a broader and richer

view.” Scheffran, a conflict researcher,

is analyzing where climate change

will create new conflict potentials. For

example, if there were drinking water

22 23Landnutzung Landnutzung

Under water – or high and dry?What coastal planners need to know

If the ice sheet in Greenland melts, not all coastlines will automatically be

covered with water; sea levels won’t rise uniformly everywhere around the globe.

Further, both human intervention and completely natural processes can affect

the water levels along specific coasts.

2524 Sea LevelSea Level

I t all started with a fl oating pavilion: Since 2010 visitors

to the harbor in Rotterdam have been coming in droves

to see the three giant domes fl oating on sheets of styro-

foam. The futuristic, fl oating structure is both home to

an exhibit on the city’s program for adapting to climate

change and a textbook example of what it has planned.

By 2025 Rotterdam is to be “climate-proof” – with the

help of houses on pontoons, Holland’s answer to rising

sea levels. Elsewhere some communities are responding

by building higher embankments, while others are sim-

ply leaving the coasts.

Three things affect the mean sea level:

water movements, heat and mass.

But how much will the mean sea level actually rise if the

Earth continues to grow warmer? Oceanographers predict a

mean global rise of between 50 centimeters and one meter

over the next 100 years. Satellites are currently measuring

a rise of roughly three millimeters per year. However Pro-

fessor Detlef Stammer, Co-Speaker for CliSAP, emphasizes:

“Over the last 50 years, this process has accelerated. But

in the short term, the mean sea level can naturally fl uc-

tuate, which can temporarily give the impression that the

long-term trend is diminishing – for instance, as we saw

at the beginning of this century.” Stammer, who works at

the Institute of Oceanography, nevertheless expects that

man-made climate changes will further swell the ocean.

In addition to water movements due to currents and

wind, above all two other factors infl uence the mean sea

level: heat and mass. Our ocean has a tremendous capac-

ity for storing heat. When the atmosphere warms, ocean

temperatures rise and the water expands. Further, melt-

water from glaciers and polar ice caps means more water

is added to our seas. “In the past several years, ocean tem-

peratures may have only risen slightly, but the melting of

Greenland’s ice sheet has accelerated. But the melting

could also slow again,” explains Stammer. This is because

ice adapts: When it has melted off the sides of a glacier

and no new ice from snowfall “grows back” on top, the

melting process slows. And that’s exactly what’s happen-

ing now in some parts of Greenland: The widespread melt-

ing on the island’s eastern shores has subsided, though in

the west the water continues to rush into the sea.

How much glaciers and the polar ice caps will actually

contribute to the rising mean sea level isn’t easy to cal-

culate, because the melting can’t simply be observed and

used to make projections. In this regard, the Antarctic is

especially puzzling: Is it gaining or losing ice? Though it’s

thawing in the west, nothing seems to be happening in

the east – or could it be that now there’s even more snow

there? These questions still need to be answered. Green-

land, too, is losing mass under the 1,000-meter mark,

though it’s gaining mass above that line. “In terms of the

global sea level, it’s only the sum of the two processes that

counts,” says Detlef Stammer.

Today, this aspect isn’t suffi ciently taken into con-

sideration in most climate models. Though temperature

forecasts allow us to simulate the melting of land ice and

to estimate how much new water will be added to the

ocean, what happens if the planet heats up faster and

more intensively than expected? How much will the fresh-

water affect the ocean? Meltwater is freshwater, which

can change the density of seawater and thus affect cur-

rents – fi rst locally, then throughout the entire ocean. As

researchers have now determined, too much freshwater

can disrupt the ocean for several centuries; it simply takes

tremendous spans of time for the ocean to compensate for

the changes in density – assuming the fl ow of freshwater

subsides. Working together with his colleagues, Stammer

hopes to shed more light on the interplay of meltwater

and mean seal level, which will allow us to refi ne climate

simulations and forecasts alike.

However, our swelling ocean does not pose the same

threat for everyone. “The sea level will rise very differ-

ently from region to region. That aspect hasn’t received

much attention to date, but is important for protect-

ing coastal areas,” Stammer emphasizes. At-risk areas

include low-lying coastal plains, river deltas and islands

– like the Pacifi c and Caribbean islands, coastal areas in

Western Europe, Equatorial Africa and Southeast Asia.

Further, coasts tend to be densely populated areas, and

many megacities are built close to water. Nearly a quar-

ter of the world’s population lives within 100 kilome-

ters of a coastline and less than 100 meters above sea

level. According to the oceanographer, “It’s these regions

we need to pay special attention to, and to differentiate

between short-term, natural fl uctuations and long-term

changes.” For example, the sea level has risen substan-

tially in the western Pacifi c over the last 15 to 20 years. But,

looked at from a 50-year perspective, researchers cannot

confi rm this trend.

Our swelling ocean does not pose

the same threat for everyone.

It’s a different story in Bangladesh, where we’re seeing a

long-term rise that’s much faster than e.g. in the Nether-

lands. The reason: Firstly, because of shifts in the Earth’s

crust, the entire country is sinking slightly. Secondly, three

major rivers, all of which are prone to rising over their

banks, empty into the Indian Ocean there. And lastly, hurri-

canes and monsoon rains can worsen the fl ooding. So here

we have a mix of natural phenomena and potential ›

One solution to the rising mean sea level:

homes that fl oat.

What would happen if Greenland’s ice

completely melted? The coasts of the North Sea

would most likely remain unchanged, while

in Norway the sea level might even drop.

2726 Sea LevelSea Level 27

› consequences of climate change that makes life diffi-

cult. But Bangladesh, unlike the Netherlands, is an impov-

erished country and has no modern dams, let alone the

luxury of building floating houses. If the sea level rises by

a meter in Bangladesh, one-fifth of the country will be

under water.

It is by the way a misconception that the ocean is one

giant, flat body of water. Instead, the different distribu-

tions of mass in the planet’s mantle and crust, along with

the movements of tectonic plates, are what determine

the sea level along coastlines. Simply put: Mass attracts

mass. So what does that mean for Greenland? Theoreti-

cally speaking: If Greenland’s ice melted away completely,

then the island would lose a significant amount of mass

and therefore attraction. In response, the sea level would

decline – and not just around Greenland, but to differ-

ing degrees throughout the North Atlantic. It would drop

for Norway, and might remain unchanged for the coasts

of the North Sea. But people living on or near the Indian

Ocean and the Pacific, as well as those in South America

and in Africa, would be hard hit.

What may yet happen in Greenland is ancient history in

Scandinavia: Following the last ice age, the peninsula lost

so much mass through the melting of the glaciers that the

land is still rising today and the sea level along its coasts is

dropping. In contrast, for the same time the German Bight

steadily sank, and is currently sinking by roughly a milli-

meter a year, producing a relative rise in the sea level, as

the Bight and Scandinavia are both on top of a “seesaw”

tectonic plate.

Will the peaks of storm surges rise?

“For coastal planners, it’s no good to simply orient your

work on how much the global mean sea level rises,” says

Detlef Stammer. “Instead, we’re going to create atlases for

the entire planet that take into account regional influences.

And that includes storm surges, because these extreme

events are the most serious threat to coastal areas.” The

studies conducted by Stammer’s colleague Professor Hans

von Storch of the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht have

not yet found conclusive evidence that global warming

increases the occurrence of major storm surges. “But there

are indications that when sea level rises, so do the peaks

of storm surges,” explains Stammer.

Greenland’s ice is rapidly melting. But

if no new ice from snowfall “grows back”

on top, the melting process slows.

A meltwater lake in Greenland: In the

west, water continues to rush into the

sea, while in the east the melting has

subsided.

Ultimately, even the ocean is part of a greater whole.

The water on land, i.e., lakes, rivers and groundwater, as

well as human intervention in water systems, also affect

mean sea level. When China fills a major reservoir, we can

clearly see that the global sea level rises more slowly for a

certain time. If groundwater is removed on a massive scale

or more sediment builds up in major rivers, it can also

impact the coasts on a regional level. Stammer is con-

vinced that: “If we want to truly grasp the rising sea lev-

el and use that knowledge to develop suitable measures

for regional coast protection, we need to bring it all

together: the dynamics of ice and ocean, water systems

and water transport on land, tectonic plate shifts and con-

tinental drift, population growth, and economic and

political considerations. And each and every factor

involved has both a spatial and temporal element.” A her-

culean task, but the Hamburg-based climate researchers’

interdisciplinary orientation offers a solid foundation for

facing it.

When China fills a reservoir,

it slows the rise of the sea level.

The ocean is only part of a greater

whole. Rivers, lakes and groundwater

also affect the sea level.

2928 Media Studies

A nyone who felt like clicking through every Google hit

for “climate change” would be busy for the rest of

their life: It pops up a total of 950 million times; the Ger-

man equivalent “Klimawandel” recently broke the 6-mil-

lion mark and is still going strong. Everyone is talking,

writing and arguing about global warming and what it

will mean for the future.

Over the past several years, climate change has become

a hot topic for the media in countries all over the planet,

as Professor Mike S. Schäfer and his CliSAP research group

“Media Constructions of Climate Change” have proven.

Analyzing key articles from major daily newspapers in 23

countries and all continents, they determined that e.g.

from 1996 to 2010, the German newspaper “Süddeutsche

Zeitung” alone published over 6,900 articles on climate

change – an average of more than one article per issue.

The Australian newspaper “The Australian” led the way

with roughly 14,000 articles – nearly three per issue. A

Climate change – a media spectacle?The birth of a hot topic

Media Studies

striking change: In the last five years, the media have

reported four to eight times as often on climate change

as they did in the late 1990s.

“Australia’s example shows how media coverage

has changed direction,” says Schäfer. “Since the coun-

try’s energy supply is heavily dependent on coal, climate

change has been a major election issue there since 2006.

So it’s a political topic.” When it comes to the scientific

background of climate change, journalists pay little more

attention than in the past, though they do more often link

it with political or economic questions now.

Schäfer’s study also shows that German media follow a

similar approach. While the potential repercussions of cli-

mate change like flooding do little to arouse media atten-

tion, a wealth of new articles appear whenever there is an

upcoming international climate conference, or when the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) releases

its latest report. However, once these events have come ›

Around the world, climate change dominates the front pages, is constantly discussed

in the daily news, and has long since reached every corner of the World Wide Web.

In Hamburg, communication researchers are exploring how the media shape society’s

image of climate change, and how they influence environmental policy and research.

3130 Media Studies

› and gone, the level of interest can take a nosedive, espe-

cially when the media and readers alike are “oversaturated,”

as they were after the massive media hype surrounding

the Copenhagen Summit in 2009. But does this fl ood of

information actually reach the average citizen? According

to the Eurobarometer for 2011, 50 percent of all Europeans

consider climate change to be the single most important

global threat; in Germany, the number is two out of three.

“That’s surely also a media effect,” says Schäfer. But this

awareness doesn’t always produce personal action. “It’s

hard to convince people that we have to act now: Climate

change isn’t something people can feel or touch, its con-

sequences seem far away, and our great-grandchildren

may be the fi rst to reap the positive effects of environ-

mental protection.”

Instead, people are more worried about other prob-

lems, especially in developing countries. If we take Ban-

gladesh as an example: Climate change poses serious risks

for the Southeast Asian country. If the sea level continues

to rise, major fl oods could become more frequent and

penetrate farther inland. Nevertheless, people aren’t wor-

ried about global warming – but e.g. about tigers, which

represent a concrete day-to-day threat. In contrast, fl oods

are something they’ve simply grown used to.

In Germany and other industrialized countries, global

warming, together with all of its potential consequences,

has long since become a political issue – due in part to

the jumpstart it received from infl uential journals. “The

media may not have invented climate change, but they

practically forced it onto the political agenda,” says com-

munications researcher Mike S. Schäfer. When the German

Physical Society (Deutsche Physikalische Gesellschaft) fi rst

warned of an “impending global environmental catas-

trophe” in 1986, political leaders remained unmoved;

it wasn’t until the major magazine “Der Spiegel” put an

image of the Cologne Cathedral surrounded by fl oodwa-

ters on the cover and more and more media sources began

reporting on the “environmental catastrophe” that poli-

ticians began to take note.

Do the media infl uence science, just as they do poli-

tics? The fact is: Climate researchers and journalists have

grown closer together. Schäfer and his colleagues have

determined that 70 percent of all climate researchers –

from PhD candidates to professors – talk with journal-

ists at least once a year. Not even stem cell researchers get

that much attention. And the days of complicated expla-

nations using the fi nest, most incomprehensible jargon

would seem to be over. Though climate research was and

remains highly complex, most scientists are now prepared

Climate researchers and journalists

have a great deal of contact.

It wasn’t until “Der Spiegel” brought

out its shocking cover and other media

sources began reporting on the climate

catastrophe that politicians began to

take action.

Media Studies

to describe their fi ndings in language suitable for the gen-

eral public, simplifying every now and then and using

practical applications to illustrate their point.

Though generally speaking, journalists more often

consult established researchers, up-and-coming scien-

tists tend to have a more open attitude towards the media.

And this is where things get interesting for Schäfer: Does

this media orientation fade, the higher they climb on

the career ladder? Or do young researchers have different

values that will fundamentally change science? “If their

openness to the media doesn’t taper off, then we also

have to talk about limits,” claims Schäfer. “Some climate

researchers are worried that media-savvy scientists receive

more funding, more quickly become department chairs,

and more easily get their work published.” In that case,

the power of the media would actually lend certain sub-

fi elds of climate research more weight.

Schäfer’s working group is now investigating the

importance of new media like blogs, forums and social

networks in communications on climate change. “Social

media is especially exciting: For example, do NGOs put

social networks to strategic use, and if so, how effective-

ly?” They are also exploring the criteria for the credibility

of “expert opinions” in the social web – as not all so-

called “experts” are created equal.

Blogs, forums, social media – where are

the limits for legitimate researchers?

The Survey With 1,130 participants from the natural and social

sciences, the CliSAP study is the most extensive sur-

vey of German climate researchers to date. It was

conducted online from November 2010 to January

2011 and was supported by the consumer research

group “Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung” (GfK).

According to the results, nearly three-fourths of

the researchers had contact with newspapers, tele-

vision, radio or Internet media in the last year –

a far higher number than in other disciplines. At

the same time, only a tiny group (less than one

percent) had more than ten contacts during that

time; these were primarily the experienced pro-

fessors with many publications. In most cases,

the journalist is who initiates contact, and most

researchers are happy to explain their fi ndings,

explaining them in media-friendly language – but

are not willing to deviate from established scientifi c

standards. Sharing results before they have been

checked and validated by their peers is still very

much frowned upon. Many are also reserved when

it comes to making political recommendations.

Apparently, young researchers tend to be more

open towards media representatives – a gener-

ational change or an attitude that fades as their

careers progress?

32 33Carbon Cycle

Where do we put the CO2?

Impacts on our atmosphere, land and seas

For the first time, new

climate models are taking

into account the complex

carbon cycle – and the

future development of

vegetation: Not only are

temperatures rising, but

the ocean is growing acidic

faster than anticipated.

There are tremendous amounts of car-

bon in circulation on our planet: as CO2

in the atmosphere; in the form of bio-

mass, once plants have integrated the

greenhouse gas in their metabolism;

and in the ocean, where carbon diox-

ide is dissolved in the seawater, and

where as carbonate it is used by some

organisms as building material for their

calcium carbonate skeletons. At the

same time here, too, billions of plank-

ton algae transform carbon dioxide into

biomass. When they die the biological

compounds break down again, combine

with oxygen and return to the atmo-

sphere as CO2; the cycle begins anew.

Combining all of these processes –

on land, in the ocean and in the atmo-

sphere – in a single mathematical mod-

el is extremely difficult. And as if that

weren’t enough, further variables also

have to be taken into account. Human

beings add more and more carbon to

the cycle that had previously remained

“inactive” in the form of crude oil, nat-

ural gas and coal. Further, the distri-

bution of vegetation can change, and

with it the capacity to take in and store

carbon dioxide, e.g. if global warming

turns whole regions into deserts or con-

versely the Sahara suddenly becomes

verdant again.

But Hamburg’s researchers have

finally done it: “Our calculations are

One way to get the job done:

The emissions from a nearby lignite

power plant are pumped through

algae suspensions in the bags. The

little helpers break down the CO2,

“defusing” the emissions.

Carbon Cycle

the first to consider the carbon cycle

in relation to the future development

of vegetation and sea plankton. This

allows us to more realistically visual-

ize future conditions, while at the same

time closing an essential gap in exist-

ing models,” reports Dr. Christian Reick

of the Max Planck Institute for Meteo-

rology. The models predict that the 21st

century will not only see global warm-

ing, but also a rapid acidification of

our seas.

Though the ocean absorbs huge

amounts of CO2, making it an essential

buffer for climate change, as a result its

pH value sinks and our seas become

The IPCC and its Assessment Reports

The United Nations’ “Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change” (IPCC) is best known for its official Assessment

Reports. Released every five to six years, they summarize the

latest information on climate change and global warming,

assess potential risks, and develop strategies for avoiding or

adapting to them. The IPCC appoints respected scientists to

author the reports, while fellow researchers from around the

globe serve as independent Review Editors, working to ensure

that all aspects of an issue are taken into account and

neutrally evaluated. Hamburg’s researchers are often called

upon to contribute as authors or reviewers. The Assessment

Reports provide a basis for global discussions on climate

change, as well as essential information to help political and

business leaders make informed decisions. The IPCC became

the target of criticism in 2007, when a Report was found to

contain discrepancies and errors. Ever since, the preparation

and review processes have been subject to even more strin-

gent checks.

more acidic. This is harmful for mussels,

corals and other “calcium carbonate

builders,” whose building material of

choice becomes brittle. As a result,

entire symbiotic communities could

collapse. These initial findings are part

of a broad set of calculations carried out

over the last two years by the Max Planck

Institute for Meteorology together with

the German Climate Computing Center

(DKRZ), with financial support from Ger-

many’s Federal Ministry of Education

and Research. They will be used e.g. in

the IPCC’s next Assessment Report, which

will be released in September 2013.

On the ocean floor, dissolved in seawater,

in trees and bushes, and in the atmosphere:

Carbon is all around us.

The more CO2 the ocean absorbs,

the more acidic it becomes – which

destroys the calcium carbonate skel-

etons of algae. Top image: Calcidiscus

leptoporus at today’s CO2 levels.

Bottom image: what shell breakdown

in the seawater of the year 2100 will

look like if emissions aren’t reduced.

3534 Ozean Career

Is working in science your dream job,

Ms. Ratter?

Ratter: Yes it is! I can decide for myself

how to organize my work, have a lot

of variety in the work I do, and I enjoy

teaching. But there is a darker side,

especially the heavy workload, exter-

nal pressure and a great deal of admin-

istrative work.

Expeditions, conferences and fi eld

trips – you spend a lot of time on the

road. What does your family think

about that, Mr. Köhl?

Köhl: My wife works, too. We’ve done

a good job of timing our careers and

private lives, and made a strong net-

work. But there are still unpredictable

things that throw off your daily routine,

like unplanned meetings or when our

daughters have special plans. Travel-

ing takes the most planning; we either

have to ask one of our neighbors to look

after things or fl y my mother-in-law in.

Do you sometimes wish you had a

quieter life?

Köhl: New research projects, advising

students, meetings with colleagues and

staff – it all keeps me pretty busy. But I

also worked a while in the industry, and

it was much less interesting.

Ratter: I wouldn’t mind having less

external stress. Being bombarded with

emails can be exhausting.

Do you have a personal strategy for

fi ghting stress?

Ratter: This year I’ve made it my goal to

only work fi ve days a week.

Köhl: My daughters have a great time

reminding me: Papa, just chill out!

Young researchers have to fi rst estab-

lish themselves. Can they afford to just

take things easy every now and then?

Career or calling?Working and living in research

Work-life balance and Slow Science – a talk with Professors Beate Ratter of the

Institute of Geography and Michael Köhl of the Institute for World Forestry, who are

responsible for gender questions at the Cluster of Excellence.

Ratter: Well, it’s a double-edged sword.

Three of my doctoral candidates left

university after completing their PhDs

because they didn’t want to work like

me. Two of the three are now house-

wives and mothers.

CliSAP has roughly the same number

of male and female PhD candidates.

But when it comes to the upper ranks,

the ratio of men to women is 3 to 1.

Why is that?

Köhl: On the one hand it’s a residual

effect of a time when only very few

women kept working in science after

graduating. That’s why at CliSAP we

work to create balanced conditions as

early as the PhD phase. On the other,

this is the time in life when peo-

ple often become parents for the fi rst

time, and it still tends to be the wom-

en who take time off. The balancing act

between career and family is practically

impossible. Social pressures are also ›

Papa, just chill out!

promoting

climate research

36 37Career Career

Will we outgrow this lack of women as

a result of the generational shift?

Ratter: No, not until people’s mind-

sets change. Social stigmatization, the

desire to start a family, and the dog-

eat-dog world of universities keep

many women from pursuing an aca-

demic career. I haven’t seen any radi-

cal change in this regard, merely a few

more promising examples than before.

Köhl: It’s frightening how many young

› part of it – working mothers are still

stigmatized, there aren’t enough child-

care options …

Ratter: … and too much “old boys”

networking between old college bud-

dies. Further, there are unfortunately

still not enough women in the natural

science disciplines of climate research.

So women call it quits while men sim-

ply build their careers.

Köhl: Which is ultimately also a prob-

lem for men: This imbalance can put a

serious strain on relationships.

Ratter: Maybe, but not all men suf-

fer when their partners give up their

careers. When I read the forewords of

our doctoral dissertations, I still often

come across things like: I want to thank

my wife, who was always there to sup-

port me ...

Research Foundation has changed its

policy so that it demands only five pub-

lications per applicant.

This marks an important step,

because it promotes a change of atti-

tude with a greater focus on quality. In

Geography we have a working group on

“Slow Science” – moving away from fast

publications and instead reflecting and

discussing more. Nevertheless, we’re all

still part of the system: Those who pub-

lish less are bound to suffer for it.

Young researchers are also under pres-

sure when it comes to job security. No

other field has as many limited-term

positions as we do in research.

Ratter: Of course that’s a burden for

young researchers. But giving PhD can-

didates lifetime contracts isn’t the

answer. Then it would be too tempt-

ing to just put your feet up and do the

bare minimum. But you really do have

to be an idealist if you want to stay in

academics.

Köhl: … and take a look at fields to

your left and right every now and then.

Those who only focus on one topic are

going to have a hard time finding a job

after their PhD. Making your way to the

top is where the battle really begins –

and where stubbornness often sets in.

It’s not a good development.

Junior professors assume leadership

positions early on. How are they pre-

pared for it?

Ratter: They aren’t. Even though they

just finished their education, these

young academics are suddenly supposed

Prof. Dr. Beate Ratter’s research

focuses on the socioeconomics of

coastal regions.

Prof. Dr. Michael Köhl heads

the research group “Forest and

Climate.”

Slow Science – moving away from fast publishing,

finding more time for reflection.

school when your real career starts.

Unfortunately our educational system

is set up in such a way that most chil-

dren only succeed if they are support-

ed at home.

Ratter: All I can say to that is: The uni-

versity reflects the rest of society. Par-

ents who work at a factory all day have

exactly the same problem.

Is it possible to be a part-time

researcher?

Köhl: Part-time or full-time doesn’t

matter – all that counts are publica-

tions, research projects and attending

conferences. That has to change.

Ratter: If we’re free to imagine: Why not

create part-time professors? With half as

many teaching hours and half as many

publications and conference papers.

Köhl: That would definitely create more

flexibility. But there are two ways to

block academic careers for women:

chaining them to the oven, or sticking

them in committees and commissions.

If women make up only 15 to 20 percent

of the professors but legally have to fill

half of the positions, then they’ll spend

all their time in committee meetings –

while their careers go nowhere.

So women still have to choose between

family and career?

Köhl: Actually, at universities we have

good options for counteracting that,

because equal opportunity and work-

life balance still count for something.

But in the corporate world it’s often

very different.

Ratter: It’s a question of attitude ›

to be professors, delivering the same

performance but without a permanent

contract or the rights of a professor.

What could we change?

Köhl: For one thing, a “tenure-track”

system for junior professors, like they

have in the USA; it’s like a trial period

that qualifies professors for permanent

positions. For six years junior profes-

sors have to give it their all, so they then

receive a permanent contract. But then

they really don’t have any time left in

those six years to start a family.

Then when should academics have

children?

Ratter: Have children when you’re

studying; that’s the best time to do it.

When you’re a student, you have more

time and can be more flexible.

Köhl: But then your child will go to

men still hold traditional views on the

roles of men and women. That has to

change.

There’s a tremendous amount of pres-

sure, for example to publish as many

findings as possible. Are we talking

about a conflict between quantity and

quality?

Ratter: We should learn that it’s okay

to publish less. Since 2011, the German

Have children when

you’re studying; that’s

the best time to do it.

38 39

Taking your baby to conferences

“When I went to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Cambridge, USA), our son was only

six weeks old and my husband had just gotten an exciting job in Hamburg. Together we decided:

We’ll try to do both; that’s the only way to fi nd out if it will work. So I fl ew with our son to the

USA. We had to ‘commute’ back and forth for a little over a year before my husband could take

parental leave and come join us.

We’ve both been working and living in Hamburg for four years now, and now have two chil-

dren. From my own experience I can say: Doing academic work and having children takes orga-

nization. Not every plan works out, and there are many things you can’t predict, but some

things do work out: Before my current position was even advertised, I checked out the local

kindergartens – but only those that also took infants. A year later I received the invitation from

Hamburg and got pregnant.

My husband and I take turns picking up the children and work to support each other. We

do our best to avoid both having important dates at the same time, so we can respond fl exi-

bly if something unexpected comes up. My family often comes with me to conferences: When

my kids were still very young, they heard presentations instead of a lullaby. Now they use the

poster stands at conferences as their soccer goalposts. I’m curious to see what it will be like

once they’re older – so far we’ve faced every challenge with a kind of academic ambition: Every

problem has a solution if you look hard enough.”

Parallel careers

“Emails at three o’clock in the morning; that’s how my wife and I managed to overcome the

distance between various cities in Europe, Asia and the USA. For academics, reconciling career

and family is a huge challenge. Deadlines, conferences, projects, and having to be ‘present’

both at your home university and internationally – the workload is barely manageable. And

for limited-term contracts, we always have to get used to a new environment. It can be very

inspiring, but it also costs time and energy.

Since we’re both academics, we’re both in the same situation – that helps in everyday life.

And since we now work together in Hamburg, we can concentrate more on our research. For cou-

ples in the academic world, it’s important that you have prospects for both partners together.

Thanks to CliSAP’s Dual Career Program, we were able to make a new start in Hamburg. The

Hamburg Welcome Center also gave us great support – because dealing with the government

offi ces is a science of its own.”

Johanna Baehr, 36

Since 2009 the oceanographer has led the CliSAP research

group “Data Assimilation in the Climate System.” Following

her PhD at the University of Hamburg, she spent two years

working in the USA. She is married, her two children are in

kindergarten.

Valerio Lucarini, 36

Since 2011 the physicist and meteorologist has served as a

Professor of Theoretical Meteorology at the University of

Hamburg. This follows research stays in Russia, Finland, the

USA and England. His wife, who like Lucarini is also Italian,

is a social scientist working in the research group “Climate

Change and Security” at the KlimaCampus.

Career Career

› and willpower. People don’t have to

be reachable around the clock, and we

shouldn’t demand that from our staff.

But who can break this system?

Köhl: We “old pros” have to more

intensively support young academics.

This starts with small things, like notic-

ing when an employee is on the wrong

track and letting them know. Fur-

ther, stronger networks among young

researchers can help them to overcome

problems like fi nding the right daycare

options, and allow them to better sup-

port one another.

Ratter: We need these solidarity-based

communities as a counterweight to the

old boys networks. Maybe email-free

Sundays would help, too. Or we could

make it a rule that meetings can’t end

later than 4 pm. Especially since we

hold permanent positions, we should

do more to consider the needs of young

researchers. Meetings should also have

predefi ned time frames, agendas and

minutes; these steps encourage dis-

cipline and help to avoid lengthy and

repetitive discussions. Those of us who

still need to go grocery shopping or to

pick their children up from school or

daycare have to keep an eye on the

time.

Köhl: Most of the time meetings drag on

because even though everything impor-

tant has been said, it hasn’t been said

by everyone yet. CliSAP could serve as a

role model for gender mainstreaming.

The vast majority of our staff support

this equal opportunity strategy, and

with a Gender Task Force we could work

to remedy defi cits in its practical imple-

mentation.

Andreas Schmidt, 33

Since 2010 the sociologist has been

working on his PhD in the CliSAP

research group “Media Construc-

tions of Climate Change.”

He previously studied in Bremen

and Berlin and now lives with his

partner and two small children in

Hamburg.

Compromises instead of solutions

“When we fi rst moved here three years ago, it was supposed to be an experiment; if it didn’t feel

right after a time, we would move back to Berlin. But now we’ve settled in, our son now has a

sister, and I enjoy the work I’m doing. My girlfriend and I do about the same amount of work –

including taking care of the kids and around the house.

On the one hand, academic life and family are a good fi t, because my job gives me a lot of fl ex-

ibility. But on the other, the workload, together with time spent at conferences and stays abroad,

is hard to reconcile with family life. And that means I can’t always be around. If I have to go on a

business trip, my mother often has to come up from Franconia, or we have to ask friends to help

out. In the end there is no perfect solution, just compromises.

But people in other jobs are familiar with the same problems. In Germany the model “double -

income family, partners with equal rights and children” hasn’t yet established itself, even though

things are currently changing. Taking time out for your family is still not only something you have

to explain and justify, but can also put the brakes on your career. But academics could be posi-

tive role models, setting new social norms: Our private lives become political!”

Maybe email-free Sundays

would help.

Meetings that have to be over by 4 pm

improve discipline. Once they’re done,

there’s still time to shop or pick up the

kids.

40 41Interdisciplinary Interdisciplinary

now investigating the question of how

strong these effects are – and if they are

important for climate predictions or are

so insignificant that they can be ignored

in global models. After all, the same

positive feedback will be set off when

ocean temperatures rise in response to

global warming.

The complexity of Inga Hense’s object

of study initially meant a major chal-

lenge for Sonntag, despite his famil-

iarity with biology-related issues. “You

simply can’t describe an ecosystem with

different life-forms and food chains

the same way you would describe the

reaction between two molecules.” The

climate models were something else

the physicist had to get used to. “But I

always knew I was good at getting a feel

for new subjects.”

For interdisciplinary research groups,

taking a look outside the box is part

of their day-to-day work, which was

another motivation for Professor Hense

to put together a “mixed bag”: Her staff

members come not only from physics,

but also physical oceanography, the

marine environmental sciences, and

meteorology. As she explains, “It’s

exciting to approach the central ques-

tions from so many different directions.

That way, we learn something new from

each other every day.” ›

summer of 2009. According to Hense,

“Especially when it comes to our cli-

mate system, there are countless inter-

actions – involving biological, chemi-

cal and physical processes. If we want to

understand them, we need to think and

research beyond the borders of separate

disciplines.”

That’s also what Sebastian Sonntag

had in mind when looking for a PhD

position. “I could have developed mod-

els in a number of disciplines, but I

found the combination of physics and

biology especially appealing.” The other

key factor for him was the fact that the

PhD position was at the interdisciplin-

ary Cluster of Excellence’s SICSS gradu-

ate school. “I feel like I’m in just the

right place, because here researchers

from completely different fields come

together.”

By his own admission, Sonntag

isn’t a hardcore physicist. As early as

his diploma thesis, he started think-

ing “outside the box” – using mod-

els to describe the biochemical pro-

cesses at work in cells. It was this first

experience that sparked his interest in

biology. “Back then I learned how to

use models to simplify complex bio-

logical systems,” explains Sonntag. And

that’s the key: simplification. “Biol-

ogists and physicists approach ques-

tions from very different standpoints,”

says Hense. “While biologists tend to

study the complexity of nature, phys-

icists work to reduce that complexi-

ty down to basics, allowing us to bet-

ter grasp biological processes.” That’s

what makes them good modelers, even

when they’re actually dealing with bio-

logical processes.

And that’s now what Sebastian

Sonntag’s job is. He uses models to

describe the physical-biological feed-

backs in the ocean: Vegetable plank-

ton absorbs light energy, which can

warm the water. As a result, some spe-

cies of algae then grow better and rise

to the surface, where they absorb even

more light, warming the water even

more and continuing to thrive. Thick

algae carpets are formed, which can

also hamper the mixing of water in the

upper layers of ocean water. Sonntag is

Without vegetable plankton as a basic

source of nutrition, life in our seas

would be unimaginable. The tiny dia-

toms, green algae, dinoflagellates

and co. also influence our climate. On

the one hand, during photosynthesis

they take in carbon dioxide from the

atmosphere; on the other, some spe-

cies produce greenhouse gases them-

selves. Further, they can change both

the appearance and mechanical prop-

erties of seawater. The question this

raises: Are we talking about biology or

physics?

The answer is “both,” which is why

Professor Inga Hense wanted to get

Sebastian Sonntag on board her CliSAP

research group “Advancement of Cou-

pled Climate Ocean Ecosystem Mod-

els.” The physicist has been working

with the biologist on his PhD since the

A physicist working in biology

Climate research without borders

Doctoral candidate Sebastian

Sonntag and Professor

Inga Hense have a plan: By

combining physics and biol-

ogy, they hope to determine

how much algae carpets can

change our climate.

Vegetable plankton absorbs light energy,

which can warm the surrounding water.

Algae blooms like these off the coast

of Estonia (top) don’t just put a

damper on beach trips; they’re also

“climate-relevant.”

Deceptively innocent-looking:

Cyanobacteria (bottom) at 40-power

magnification.

42 43Interdisciplinary

› However, this process takes time:

“We talk and discuss quite a bit, and

very often have to explain things to

each other. Also, each of us has to try

to adjust to the approaches used by

other disciplines.” As a result, it took a

few months before the initial obstacles

had been overcome and the young

group of researchers had found a com-

mon denominator. “It’s really true that

we have prejudices against other dis-

ciplines. It’s important to be aware of

that so we can gradually break down

these barriers,” says Hense on the basis

of her own experience.

The major hurdle in interdisciplin-

ary work is communication; every field

has a language of its own. “Unless you

make a conscious effort to come closer

together, there’s a major risk of mis-

understandings,” claims Sonntag. This

can also include clarifying the meaning

of individual words.

“There are certain terms that have

completely different meanings in diffe-

rent fields. If that’s not taken into

account, miscommunications are a giv-

en.” And that can mean missing out on

a valuable opportunity: When we have

to explain our views, we’re more likely

to notice the holes in our arguments –

and to reexamine the supposed dogmas

of our own discipline every now and

then.

Communication is at

the heart of our work –

we learn from each

other every day.

Facts and Figures

The Cluster of Excellence in brief

Prof. Inga Hense heads the research

group on Advancement of Coupled

Climate Ocean Ecosystem Models,

Sebastian Sonntag is her PhD candidate.

44

Facts and Figures

7

24

8

5

610

3

9 1

Structure of the Cluster

The CliSAP Cluster of Excellence has concentrated and cross-linked climate research in Hamburg

since 2007. The partners are the University of Hamburg (17 institutions), the Max Planck Institute

for Meteorology, the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht and the German Climate Computing Centre.

Natural and social sciences are strongly linked. The partners involved in the Cluster have grown

together to become the KlimaCampus in the past few years. Infrastructure elements such as the

data center, the model development, large equipment like the boundary layer wind tunnel and

the information technology are utilized jointly.

Hamburg

11

45

More bright minds for Hamburg

The Cluster was launched in October 2007 with an initial staff of 135 researchers. Since that time, ten new working groups have been created. IT specialists, technicians and a central offi ce support the work, and today a total of 250 Participating Researchers are moving the Cluster forward.

Climate variability and predictability, important feedback mechanisms

and the global and regional rise of the sea level

The regional face of climate change, sea ice and permafrost in the Arctic,

altered monsoon patterns, impacts on vegetation and land use

Confl icts at so-called climate change hotspots, droughts, economic

and social insecurity, the media and public opinion

2013

2007

135 CliSAP’sInitial staff

115 New members

Focused and ready for the next phase

From 2007 to 2012 CliSAP received funding in the framework of the Excellence Initiative,

sponsored by the German federal government and federal states. On the basis of the

positive evaluation, in the summer of 2012 the German Research Foundation (DFG)

agreed to fi nance the Hamburg-based Cluster for the next fi ve years.

For this second funding period, CliSAP’s researchers have further focused their efforts

on three major areas:

Participating institutions at the University of Hamburg

5 Centre for Globalisation and Governance Department of History Institute of Soil Science Department of Cultural History and Cultural Studies Department of Social Sciences Department of Economics

6 Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change Institute of Geology Institute of Geography Institute of Geophysics Institute of Oceanography Meteorological Institute

1 University of Hamburg (UHH), Edmund-Siemers-Allee 1, 20146 Hamburg2 Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg3 Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (HZG), Max-Planck-Strasse 1, 21502 Geesthacht4 German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ), Bundesstrasse 45a, 20146 Hamburg

7 CliSAP Offi ce, Graduate School SICSS

8 Carl Friedrich von Weizsäcker Centre for Science and Peace ResearchInstitute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg

9 Institute for Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science

10 Biocenter Klein Flottbek

11 Institute of Wood Sciences

Facts and Figures

46

35

47

Imprint

PublisherCluster of Excellence CliSAP

KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg

Concept and EditorialDaniela Schmidt, Hamburg, wissen-und-worte.de

Ute Kreis, CliSAP office

Stephanie Janssen, CliSAP office

TranslationMatthew Fentem, www.translation-hotline.com

DesignHAAGEN design, www.haagendesign.de

Print Run

2,500

Image Credits

picture alliance/C. Rehder (cover, p. 25), UHH/KlimaCampus /D. Ausserhofer

(p. 1, p. 19, p. 38, back cover), Photocase/kallejipp (p. 4, p. 34, p. 39, p. 40),

UHH/KlimaCampus/T. Wasilewski (p. 6), UHH/KlimaCampus/F. Brisc (p. 7),

WWF Brazil/J. Pereira (pp. 8/9), iStockphoto/D. Vukelic (p. 10), iStockphoto/

P. Poendl (p. 11), REUTERS/P. Whitaker (p. 11, p. 18), Wikimedia/Schlegel

(p. 12), Wikimedia/C. Ziegler (p. 12), AFP/A. Scorza (p. 12), Photocase/mary-

imwunderland (p. 14), Fotolia/VRD (p. 15), J. Gläscher (p. 16), Fachagentur

Nachwachsende Rohstoffe e.V. (p. 16), iStockphoto/J. Pauls (p. 17), UN Photo

(p. 17 left, p. 17 right), Wikimedia/Craig (p. 18), Siemens press photo (p. 19),

UHH/ KlimaCampus/M. Zapf (p. 19, pp. 28/29, p. 31, p. 38, p. 42), Agentur

Focus/ S. McCurry (p. 20), D. Drukpa/DGM/Business Bhutan (p. 20), UHH/

KlimaCampus/ G. Gioli (p. 21), J. Kargel/University of Arizona (p. 21), picture

alliance/ O. Panagiotou (pp. 22/23), Hülsman & Thieme, Architekten (p. 24),

K. Schou (p. 26), REUTERS/B. Strong (p. 26), REUTERS/J. Shaw (p. 27), Der SPIEGEL

(p. 30), picture alliance/B. Tissen (p. 32), U. Riebesell/GEOMAR (p. 33), Photocase/

Lia (p. 36), UHH/KlimaCampus (p. 36, p. 36, p. 39), Photocase/simonthon

(p. 37), E. Pakhomov, B. Hunt/UBC (p. 40), Wikimedia/R. Rada (p. 41),

iStockphoto/N. Nehring (p. 41), UHH/KlimaCampus/I. Preuss (back cover)

Facts and Figures

The next generation: international and female

Our “School of Integrated Climate System Sciences”

(SICSS) offers both Master’s and PhD programs. All

courses are held in English, since one-third of our

PhDs and three-fourths of our Master’s students

come from abroad. At the same time, half of our

PhDs and far more than half of our Master’s

students are women.

Master’s students 42

Doctoral candidates 101female

male

17

51

Master’s students 42

Doctoral candidates 101international

national

65 36

31

50

25

3426 8

1569

927

2720 7

3620 16

Principal Investigators

Heads of Junior research groups*

Research Associates*

Postdoctoral Researchers*

Doctoral Candidates*

*Financed by CliSAP,status as of: March 11, 2013

male female

Strong research team

CliSAP has considerably reinforced active research work, especially by creating numerous positions for PhD candidates and postdoctoral researchers. Integrated in the Cluster’s research groups, their work fits together like parts of a puzzle.

11

CliSAP – Integrated Climate System Analysis and Prediction

The Cluster of Excellence CliSAP has concentrated and cross-linked climate research in Hamburg

since 2007. The partner institutions are the University of Hamburg, the Max Planck Institute for

Meteorology, the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht and the German Climate Computing Centre.

Natural and social sciences are strongly linked. The partners involved in the cluster have grown

together to become the KlimaCampus in the past few years.

KlimaCampus

University of Hamburg, Cluster of Excellence CliSAP clisap.offi ce@zmaw.de www.klimacampus.de