florida public model overvie · roof cover (shingle) pressure miami dade tests ... – claim...
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Florida Public Model Overview
ProgrammingTeam
MeteorologyTeam
EngineeringTeam
ActuarialTeam
Provide probabilistic wind field info
Given wind, predict damage
Filter damages into annualized $
Research Objectives
Determine types Quantify wind resistanceTranslate wind speed into loads
Monte Carlo Simulation
% Quantify damages
FLORIDA EXPOSURE
2 major building categories
1. Single Family Homes2. Mobile Homes
Data from county tax appraiser databases
• Year built• Number of stories• Roof type• Exterior wall type• Roof cover materials• Area
Model Types in Four Regions
• The different model types and their characteristics are based on the population statistics in each region.
Resulting Classification
Roof Cover Roof Type Exterior Wall
Number of Story
Shingle Gable Wood frame
1
Tile Hip Masonry 2
Others Other Other more
Research Objectives
Determine types Quantify wind resistanceTranslate wind speed into loads
Monte Carlo Simulation
% Quantify damages
Wind Speed Wind Load
• Translate wind speed to the pressures and forces on the building
Component Wind Loads
InputDiscrete 3 sec
wind speed(e.g.V = 110 mph)
OutputComponent
loads/pressures(e.g. one sheathing panel)
• Sources:– Wind load provisions in code– Directional modifications– Full scale measurement
• Influences:– Building shape– Wind direction
Component Wind Loads
• C&C pressure coefficients, re-mapped
Wind
ASCE 7-98 Zone 3
ASCE 7-98 Zone 2
ASCE 7-98 Zone 1
Component Wind Loads
• C&C pressure coefficients, re-mapped
ASCE 7-98 Zone 3
ASCE 7-98 Zone 2
ASCE 7-98 Zone 1
Wind
Load Paths
• Relate loads on outside of building to internal members and connections
Research Objectives
Determine types Quantify wind resistanceTranslate wind speed into loads
Monte Carlo Simulation
% Quantify damages
Component Resistance to Wind
• For each structural type– Identify major
components– Model the capacity of
each component– Determine Load Paths
Residential Components
• Type: e.g., Concrete Block, Gable Roof
• 5 Selected components– Roof cover– Roof sheathing– Roof to Wall
Connections– Walls (frame, masonry)– Openings
Openings
Roof SheathingRoof Cover
Roof to Wall Connections
WallsOpenings
Roof SheathingRoof Cover
Roof to Wall Connections
Walls
Component Criteria Source Roof Cover (Shingle) Pressure Miami Dade tests Roof Sheathing Pressure In-situ testing by Clemson Univ. Roof to Wall Connection Uplift Simpson StrongTie
Bending & uplift Test data: Texas Tech Univ. Masonry Shear Masonry code Bending Natl Design Specification Uplift Test data: Clemson Univ.
Walls Wood
Shear Natl Design Specification Pressure ASTM spec. Windows Impact Poisson distr.
Doors Pressure Engineering judgment Openings
Garage Pressure Manufacturer’s association
Component Capacity –Quantify Strength
• Capacity information for each component is described by a probability curve (PDF)
• 3 sets of models: – weak – medium– strong
• Reflect different eras in building code development and practice
Different Strength Models
Model Differences
Model Garage door
Sheathing nailing
Roof to wall connections
Roof shape
Opening protection
Weak Weak(30 psf)
6d(55 psf)
Toe nails(see next)
Gable or hip
None or plywood
Medium Weak(30 psf)
6d(80 psf)
Clips(see next)
Gable or hip
None or plywood
Strong Strong(52 psf)
8d(130 psf)
Straps(see next)
Gable or hip
None or plywood
Note : Plywood reduces probability of missile impact damage by 50%
Roof to Wall Connections
Presented as non gable end capacity/gable end capacity all in lbs.Numbers are multiplied by a factor of safety = 3.0
Wall type Toe nail Clip strap
Wood wall 460 / 380 690 / 650 1240 / 1260
Masonry 700 / 225 1065 / 640 1400 / 640
Mitigation
• The model has the capacity to model different mitigation measures either individually or in combinations
• Details are provided in discussion of form V-2
Manufactured Homes
Types modeled:– Pre-HUD Code:– Post-HUD Code (1994)
7 ft
Research Objectives
Determine types Quantify wind resistanceTranslate wind speed into loads
Monte Carlo Simulation
% Quantify damages
INPUT
Random 3 secwind speed
(e.g.V = 110 mphWith COV = 0.1) LOAD: Modified Pressure
Coefficients from ASCE 7Randomized using COV = 0.1
Openings
Roof SheathingRoof Cover
Roof to Wall Connections
Walls
DAMAGE
Random componentcapacities
Monte Carlo Simulation Engine
Monte Carlo Simulation Engine
• Create a typical house– Resistance from PDFs– Unique value for each
window/door/panel
psf• Apply hurricane wind load– 3-sec gust– Wind speed loads
• Investigate failures– Compare load to resistance– Failures may change loads
iteration
Iterative failure check procedure
• Internal pressurization due to breach• Roof-to-wall connection redistribution
x
Damage Prediction
• Damage Matrix for:
– Each structural type
– Wind speeds 50 – 250 mph in steps of 5 mph
– Eight wind directions
Example Damage Matrix
• Partial sample of an output file for a concrete block home, in South FL, with a gable roof, and no hurricane shutters, subjected to a 150 mph 3-sec wind gust at an angle of 45 degrees
Research Objectives
Determine types Quantify wind resistanceTranslate wind speed into loads
Monte Carlo Simulation
% Quantify damages
Cost Estimation Model %
• From the Damage Matrices– Convert modeled physical damages into monetary
damages– Define the vulnerability of different homes types– Provide a logical method for prediction damage to
other coverage’s– Validate the damage predictions – Input from experts (adjusters, etc.)
Different Types of Damage %
Exterior
Damage
Interior
Damage
Utilities
Damage
Contents
Damage
Additional
Living Expenses
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3
Building
Damage
Appurtenant
Damage
Cost Estimation
• Replacement RatiosReplacement Cost Ratio's for a Masonry home, with a Shingle roof, and Hurricane Shutters
Approximate Replacement Costs
Replacement Ratios
Foundation/Slab 7,884$ 6%Roof Sheathing 6,205$ 5%Roof Cover 9,500$ 7%Trusses 11,704$ 9%Exterior Walls 28,486$ 21%Windows 5,012$ 4%Shutters 3,138$ 2%Entrance Door and Sliding Back Door 1,172$ 1%Garage 1,182$ 1%Interior 44,240$ 32%Plumbing 13,261$ 10%Mechanical 8,423$ 6%Electrical 8,333$ 6%Total 148,539$ 108%
%
• Interior, electrical, mechanical, and plumbing systems comprise a significant value
Cost Estimating Resources• Collections of average unit costs for
materials, labor, and equipment based on contractor bids for typical projects– CEIA Cost 2003– RSMeans Residential Cost Data – National Construction Estimator– 2004 National Renovation & Insurance Repair
Estimator – Marshall & Swift– Claim settlement info
%
Vulnerability Matrices• Model Type - Specific to each Monte Carlo model (36 models) plus
additional considerations for each (6*36 = 216)
Damage\Wind Speed (mph) 48.5 to 52.5 52.5 to 57.5 57.5 to 62.5 62.5 to 67.5 67.5 to 72.5 0% to 2% 1 0.99238 0.91788 0.77312 0.61025 2% to 4% 0 0.00725 0.0805 0.21937 0.36138 4% to 6% 0 0.000375 0.001375 0.007 0.0235 6% to 8% 0 0 0.000125 0.000375 0.0025 8% to 10% 0 0 0 0 0.000375
10% to 12% 0 0 0 0 0.000375 12% to 14% 0 0 0 0 0.000625 14% to 16% 0 0 0 0 0.0005 16% to 18% 0 0 0 0 0.000125 18% to 20% 0 0 0 0 0.000125 20% to 24% 0 0 0 0 0.00025 24% to 28% 0 0 0 0 0
Weighted Vulnerability Matrices
• Matrices are designed to make use of more information than provided in the insurance files
• Weighting based on:– Roof cover– Roof shape– Number of stories– Opening protection
• Additional weighting based on age when year built not present (e.g. Cat fund)
Masonry Structures VulnerabilitiesNorth WBDR Concrete Building Vulnerabilities
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190
wind speed (mph) 3s
Dam
age
Rat
ios
StrongMediumWeak
Masonry Contents VulnerabilityNorth WBDR Concrete Contents Vulnerabilities
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190
wind speed (mph) 3s
Dam
age
Rat
ios
StrongMediumWeak
Masonry ALE VulnerabilityNorth WBDR Concrete ALE Vulnerabilities
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190
wind speed (mph) 3s
Dam
age
Rat
ios
StrongMediumWeak
Manufactured Homes Structure VulnerabilitiesManufactured Homes Structure Vulnerabilities
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 2503 sec gust wind speeds
Dam
age
Rat
ios
central pre94 07
Post94-III, 07
Post94-II
Questions ??