fire effects tradeoff model (fetm) mark d. schaaf, air sciences inc. portland, oregon

Fire Effects Tradeoff ModelFire Effects Tradeoff Model(FETM)(FETM)

Mark D. Schaaf, Air Sciences Inc.Mark D. Schaaf, Air Sciences Inc.Portland, OregonPortland, Oregon

OutlineOutline• What is What is

FETM?FETM?

• How does How does it work?it work?

• What What outputs are outputs are produced?produced?

What is FETM?What is FETM?• Landscape-scale simulation Landscape-scale simulation

modelmodel

• Evaluates annual Evaluates annual effectseffects of single of single or multiple disturbances, whether or multiple disturbances, whether natural or management relatednatural or management related

• Any spatial domainAny spatial domain

• Any time period from 1 to 300 Any time period from 1 to 300 years (annual increments)years (annual increments)

• Stochastic—Annual number of fire Stochastic—Annual number of fire starts for low, moderate, high, and starts for low, moderate, high, and extreme NFDRS weather classes extreme NFDRS weather classes are treated as random variablesare treated as random variables

• Dynamic—Landscape Dynamic—Landscape composition in each year linked to composition in each year linked to previous year’s resultprevious year’s result

What is FETM?What is FETM?

• Non Spatial—Results are Non Spatial—Results are assessed by vegetation class assessed by vegetation class (FCC) without regard to where (FCC) without regard to where those classes are located on the those classes are located on the landscape.landscape.

What is FETM?What is FETM?

How Does It Work?How Does It Work?Simple Example of Simple Example of

“State and Transition” Modeling“State and Transition” Modeling

Each state or vegetation class Each state or vegetation class described by a unique described by a unique Fuel Fuel Characteristic Class (FCC)Characteristic Class (FCC)..

Grass Seedling &

Saplings

PolesGrass Seed & SapPP

Pole PP

Immature PP

. . .. . .

5 years 5 years or 20% or 20% per yearper year

20 years 20 years or 5% or 5%

per yearper year

30 years 30 years or 3.33% or 3.33% per yearper year

Natural Succession

Grass Seed & SapPP

PolePP

ImmaturePP

0.2 0.05 0.033

How Does It Work?How Does It Work?

Grass Seedling & Saplings

Poles Immature

50% of 50% of fire areafire area

Low Intensity Fire

Disturbances can result in a change in Disturbances can result in a change in state, or a change in the fuel bed state, or a change in the fuel bed characteristics within a state.characteristics within a state.

0.5



Poles Immature


Moderate Intensity Fire


1.0

0.5



Poles Immature


High Intensity Fire



1.0

1.0 1.0


Fire + Succession OnlyFire + Succession Only



Poles Immature0.5

1.0

1.0

0.5

1.0

0.2

0.05 0.033

1.0

• In reality, flow diagrams are much In reality, flow diagrams are much more complex and inter-linked:more complex and inter-linked: Multiple species groups.Multiple species groups. Multiple disturbances.Multiple disturbances. Pathways may reflect changes in Pathways may reflect changes in

species and/or density as well as species and/or density as well as changes in surface loading and changes in surface loading and configurationconfiguration


• Disturbances may include:Disturbances may include: Harvesting operationsHarvesting operations Mechanical fuel treatmentsMechanical fuel treatments Insects & diseaseInsects & disease Wildfire and prescribed fireWildfire and prescribed fire OtherOther


• Incorporates various state-of-the-Incorporates various state-of-the-science models:science models: CONSUME – consumption, emissionsCONSUME – consumption, emissions NFDRS calculations – fire behaviorNFDRS calculations – fire behavior Fire type algorithm used in FARSITEFire type algorithm used in FARSITE PCHA model – weather, fire dataPCHA model – weather, fire data IIAA model – costs, breakpoint ROSIIAA model – costs, breakpoint ROS


• Comprehensive treatment of fire Comprehensive treatment of fire behavior linked to weather and behavior linked to weather and fuel bed characteristics.fuel bed characteristics.

• Considers different fire types Considers different fire types influenced by fuel, topography, influenced by fuel, topography, and weather: surface, passive and weather: surface, passive crown, active crown.crown, active crown.


• Annual outputs include:Annual outputs include:Vegetation compositionVegetation compositionWildfire acres by fire intensity levelWildfire acres by fire intensity levelPrescribed fire acresPrescribed fire acresSmoke emissions (7 pollutants)Smoke emissions (7 pollutants)Net present value (NPV) of fire Net present value (NPV) of fire

costs/benefitscosts/benefits

What Outputs are Produced?What Outputs are Produced?

Alternative 1: High Suppression/No Rx Fire

Wildfire Acres – Alternative 1Wildfire Acres – Alternative 1

a

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Simulation year

Wil

dfi

re a

rea

(hec

tare

s)

Annual mean

25-year running mean

Large Suppression Program/No Rx Fire


Alternative 2: High Suppression/Low Rx Fireb

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Simulation year

Wil

dfi

re a

rea

(hec

tare

s) Annual mean


Large Suppression Program/Low Rx Fire


Alternative 2: High Suppression/Low Rx Firec

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Simulation year

Wil

dfi

re a

rea

(hec

tare

s) Annual mean


Small Suppression Program/High Rx Fire


Alternative 2: High Suppression/Low Rx Fired

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Simulation year

Wil

dfi

re a

rea

(hec

tare

s) Annual mean


Small Suppression Program/Intermediate Rx Fire


Alternative 2: High Suppression/Low Rx Firee

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Simulation year

Wil

dfi

re a

rea

(hec

tare

s) Annual mean


Small Suppression Program/Variable Rx Fire

Wildfire Acres by Fire Intensity LevelWildfire Acres by Fire Intensity Level

Alternative 2: 7,500 Chaparral Acres Per Year

Northern Mixed Chaparral

Density 1Density 2Density 3Density 4Density 5

Landscape Composition ChangesLandscape Composition Changes

Results - Cost SummaryResults - Cost SummaryANNUALIZED PRESENT NET VALUE OF FUTURE

COSTS AND REVENUES (USD, $1,000s)

AlternativeProgram

CostsFire

SuppressionFuel

TreatmentNVC

WildfireNVC

Rx FireTotalPNV

1 15,019 7,089 0 2,268 0 24,376

2 15,019 5,645 1,758 1,455 994 24,871

3 10,744 5,447 7,033 572 997 24,793

4 10,744 5,558 3,517 926 1,056 21,802

5 10,744 5,643 2,821 999 1,159 21,336

• Predicts future effects and Predicts future effects and landscapes under different landscapes under different management strategies and fire management strategies and fire protection policies.protection policies.

• Similar in capability to other Similar in capability to other landscape models (VDDT, for landscape models (VDDT, for example), but addresses fire effects example), but addresses fire effects in a more comprehensive mannerin a more comprehensive manner..

Concluding CommentsConcluding Comments

• For additional information, including For additional information, including model setup files, color brochure, model setup files, color brochure, users guide, technical users guide, technical documentation, and selected papers, documentation, and selected papers, see the web site at:see the web site at:

www.fs.fed.us/r6/aq/fetm

Concluding CommentsConcluding Comments

http://www.fs.fed.us/r6/aq/fetm

fire effects tradeoff model (fetm) mark d. schaaf, air sciences inc. portland, oregon

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