February – May 2014 Procurement

DWSG Presentation

ERS Capacity Demand Curve

2/3/2014

MW

$/MW/Hr

Offer Cap

Expenditure Limit

Capacity Demand

Curve

Capacity Inflection

Point

DSWG

Expenditure Limit Allocation Table

2/3/2014

Standard Contract

Terms

Time Period

Risk Weighting

Factor (a)

Time Period Hours

(b)

OfferCap (c)

(a)*(b)*(c)

Expenditure Limit

Allocation Factor

ERS Time Period

Expenditure Limit

Capacity Inflection

Point (MW)(MW)

FebMay14 bh1 5 420 80$ 168,000 11.27% 5,635,768$ 167.7bh2 3 252 80$ 60,480 4.06% 2,028,877$ 100.6bh3 3 336 80$ 80,640 5.41% 2,705,169$ 100.6nbh 1 1,871 80$ 149,680 10.04% 5,021,201$ 33.5

JunSep14 bh1 1 425 80$ 34,000 2.28% 1,140,572$ 33.5bh2 10 255 80$ 204,000 13.69% 6,843,433$ 335.5bh3 10 340 80$ 272,000 18.25% 9,124,577$ 335.5nbh 1 1,908 80$ 152,640 10.24% 5,120,498$ 33.5

Oct14Jan15 bh1 5 415 80$ 166,000 11.14% 5,568,676$ 167.7bh2 1 249 80$ 19,920 1.34% 668,241$ 33.5bh3 1 332 80$ 26,560 1.78% 890,988$ 33.5nbh 1 1,957 80$ 156,560 10.50% 5,251,999$ 33.5

DSWG

Risk Factor Evaluation

2/3/2014

Initial Risk Factor Assignments for 2014 ERS Budget Year• 10’s assigned to BH2 and BH3 in the Jun-Sep to cover summer peak • 5’s assigned to the BH1 time period in both the Feb-May and Oct-Jan due

to the potential wind ramps in the early mornings and winter peaking hours. 

• 3s assigned to both BH2 and BH3 in the Feb-May to cover the potential for an early heat spell.

• 1’s assigned to all NBH until the time periods and SCTs can be realigned to match up with the winter peaking hours.

Information Used • Hourly load forecast by

ERS time period• Monthly weather

(temperature) projections

• Available SARA’s

DSWG

Business Hours 1 Procurement - FebMay14

2/3/2014

ERS -10 ERS-30

MW Procured 622.92 149.31

ERS Generators Procured 6 2

Number of Resources Procured 431 102

Expenditure Limit $ 5,635,768.00

Amount Spent $ 5,416,421.22

Unspent $219,346.78

Clearing Price: $16.70

MW Procured: 772.230

MW Not Procured: 0

Resources Procured: 533

Resources Not Procured: 0

DSWG

Business Hours 2 Procurement - FebMay14

2/3/2014

ERS -10 ERS-30

MW Procured 607.035 125.935

ERS Generators Procured 6 2

Number of Resources Procured 406 88

Clearing Price: $10.71

MW Procured: 732.970

MW Not Procured: 47.675

Resources Procured: 494

Resources Not Procured: 42

Expenditure Limit $ 2,028,877.00

Amount Spent $ 1,978,227.39

Unspent $ 50,649.61

DSWG

Business Hours 3 Procurement - FebMay14

2/3/2014

ERS -10 ERS-30

MW Procured 598.36 118.27

ERS Generators Procured 6 2

Number of Resources Procured 389 79

Clearing Price: $10.71

MW Procured: 716.630

MW Not Procured: 44.100

Resources Procured: 468

Resources Not Procured: 41

Expenditure Limit $ 2,705,169.00

Amount Spent $ 2,578,836.05

Unspent $ 126,332.95

DSWG

Non Business Hours Procurement - FebMay14

2/3/2014

ERS -10 ERS-30

MW Procured 518.14 97.295

ERS Generators Procured 6 2

Number of Resources Procured 358 64

Clearing Price: $3.90

MW Procured: 615.435

MW Not Procured: 64.080

Resources Procured: 422

Resources Not Procured: 50

Expenditure Limit $ 5,021,201.00

Amount Spent $ 4,490,767.65

Unspent $ 530,433.35

DSWG

Capacity Procurement (Including both ERS-10 and ERS-30)

2/3/2014 DSWG

BH1 - Average Price vs Clearing Price

2/3/2014 DSWG

2/3/2014

BH2 - Average Price vs Clearing Price

DSWG

2/3/2014

BH3 - Average Price vs Clearing Price

DSWG

2/3/2014

NBH - Average Price vs Clearing Price

DSWG

Standard Contract Term Cost

2/3/2014 DSWG

Standard Contract Term Cost

2/3/2014 DSWG

Total Spent for the FebMay14 Standard Contract Period

2/3/2014

Expenditure Limit for FebMay14 $ 15,391,015.00

Amount Spent for FebMay14 $ 14,464,252.32

Unspent $ 926,762.68

2014 ERS Cap FebMay14 Total Remaining Under Cap

$50,000,000 $14,464,252.32 $35,535,747.68

10-Minute $ 11,941,549.91

30-Minute $ 2,522,702.41

Amount Spent for FebMay14 $ 14,464,252.32

DSWG