february 2004 sir david king climate change for action ...climate change sir david king ......
TRANSCRIPT
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Global Warming; The ImperativesFor Action From The Science of
Climate Change
Sir David King
Chief Scientific Adviser To The UK Government
The American Association for
the Advancement of Science
13th February 2004
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The Office of Science andTechnology
Science and Engineering Base Group
Foresight
Transdepartmental S&T Group
Science In Government
International
LINK
Finance, Policy and Corporate Affairs
Research Councils
Exploitation
SCIECE
IN
SOCIETY
Chief Scientific Adviser
Science Review
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Good Science Is Imperative forGood Government
The Chief Scientific Adviser (CSA):– Is responsible to the Prime Minister and Cabinet for
the quality of scientific advice within Government andfor advising on Government’s S&T policy and onspecific S&T issues
– Ensures co-ordination of science policy issues withinthe UK Government and with Scotland, Wales andNorthern Ireland
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Research Footprint – Inputs / Outputs
PUBERD as %of GDP
Publications perresearcher
GERD as % ofGDP
Citations perresearcher
Citations perunit GDP
Citations per unitPUBERD
INPUTS OUTPUTS
UKUSACanadaFranceGermanyItalyJapan
Source: Office of Science and Technology
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The Chief Scientific Adviser’s Role
• Reactive– Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD)– BSE
• Proactive and strategic– GM Debate– Climate Change– Post 9/11 activity– Integrating scientific advice into policy
making– Foresight
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The Greenhouse Effect
Source: The Met Office/Hadley Centre
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Carbon Dioxide Levels over the last 60,000Years
Source: University of Berne and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Climate Change Is Happening
South Cascade Glacier (Washington State), 1928 -2000Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, 1912-1998
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…….And The Effects Are Real
• Over 160,000 people die worldwide every yearfrom the side-effects of climate change
• Scientific advice, including that of the USNational Academy of Science is that man-madegreenhouse gas emissions are having a noticeableeffect on the earth’s climate
• Climate models predict an increase between 1.4 –5.8 over the next 100 years
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The Effects of Climate Change
Hotter anddrier summers
Milder winter
Reducedsnowfall
Reduced soilmoisture
Extreme events-heat waves,droughts, tornadoes
Sea LevelRise
Transport
Stream flowregimes
TourismIndustry
Agriculture
Disruptedenergy demandpatterns
Reducedwater supply
Coastalerosion
Increasedfloodingand stormdamage
Source:Dr R K Pachauri
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Stabilisation at 750 ppm Stabilisation at 550 ppm
Change from the present day to the 2080s: unmitigated emissions
Reduction in change due to mitigated emissions scenarios
Annual Number of People Flooded
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Global temperatures 1861-2003
N.B. 2003 in green includes a preliminary estimate for December Source:DEFRA
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Observedsimulated by model
Tem
pera
ture
ris
ede
gree
s C
0.0
0.5
1.0
1850 1900 1950 2000
Simulated Global Warming
Source: Hadley Centre
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Difficult Non Linear FeedbackPhenomena
• Deep sea methane clathrates
• Weakening the Atlantic Overturning Circulation-Thermohaline Gulf Stream, global heat conveyor
• Equatorial forest switch from CO2 net absorptionto net emission
• Change in earth’s net albedo, including global iceand cloud cover
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Adapt, Mitigate or Ignore
• We must actively reduce the production ofgreenhouse gases
• Adapt against the significant changes ahead andmanage the risks
• Although market forces will continue to operate,the question is how much can we rely on these?– Must Adapt
– Need to mitigate
– Can’t ignore
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Adaptation
• In the UK - Foresight Project on Flood andCoastal Defences
• Involving around 50 top experts to assess the sizeof the problem, and to consider how the UK couldrespond
• The work is sponsored by the Department forEnvironment, Food and Rural Affairs and involvesa range of Government Departments and bodiessuch as English Nature.
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Change in number of people at high riskby 2080’s
Change in annual economic damage
(residential & commercial properties)
DecreaseNegligible changeLow increaseMedium increaseHigh increase
Scenario: World Markets 2080’s
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Source: Highway57
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Thames Barrier Closures - Tidal, Fluvial and “in-combination”
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The Need for Mitigation
• Improve efficiency of energy usage
• Invest in RD&D in renewable energy, carbonsequestration, fusion
• Avoid exceeding a particular temperature/carbondioxide global targets threshold
• Engage actively in North-South Science,Engineering and Technology capacity building
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0
5
10
15
20
25
US Aus Ger Jap UK Ita SA Fra Swe Cro Chn* Ind*
Energy-related CO2 Emission(2000, tonnes per person)
Source: IEA, Beyond Kyoto and Climate Stabilisation (October 2002)*except China and India (source: World Bank,
World Development Indicators 2000)
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Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas Oil in electricity Oil in plastics
Oil in heating
Oil in transport
Global Energy Mix: 2002
Source: Dr Michael Smith,2002
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The UK Position
• UK is now seeking international commitment toreduce CO2 emissions under UNFCCC
• Ambition is to cut emissions of greenhouse gasesby 60% by around 2050
• UK Government already committed to action:
• By reducing the amount of energy we consume
• Increasing use of renewable and low CO2emitting energy sources
• Energy efficiency
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ITER
Source: ITER
Hydrogen“Skateboard” Car
Source: General Motors
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Tidal Turbines
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The International Challenge
• Global collaboration will depend upon individualcountries having a clear vision of energy futures
• And understanding how critical research is to thedevelopment of the new technology options
• Countries are responding to change….
• …..but cannot solve the problem in isolation
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“We have hard decisions to make. Ourresponse to the threat of globalwarming will affect our personal well-being, the evolution of human society,indeed, all life on our planet.”
- Spencer Weart, 2002
Director, Center of
History of Physics,AIP