farmward energy x friday, may 1, 2020 weekly update this ... · weekly update this week’s energy...
TRANSCRIPT
Friday, May 1, 2020x
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Farmward Energy
Weekly Update
This Week’s Energy Market NewsMarket Comments:
Distillate Stocks: The EIA reported yesterday that there was a fairly significant build of 5.1 million bar-rels, however when you dig a little deeper it can be seen that the large builds were in PADD’s 1 and 3, the East and Gulf Coasts. PADD 2, Midwest, had a build of 600,000 bbls and PADD’s 4 and 5, Rockies and West Coast, had draws of 195,000 and 322,000 bbls respectively.
Market Opinion: Prices are higher once again this morning as analysts and traders digest the EIA oil stock report which turned out with lower inventory forecasts than earlier thought. The gasoline stock draw was one of the highlights, dropping 3.7 million barrels. This has prompted new faith that there could be signs of some demand recovery.
This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not ac-cept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
Heating Oil Daily: Here’s a look at an updated Heating Oil chart after a couple of bullish closes. The trend is overall still bearish, but thankfully com-pared to gas, diesel demand destruction has been minimal with trucking and Ag demand still strong in many areas.
The first level of support is $0.6530 and 2nd support at $0.5800. Resistance levels come in at $0.8000, the 10-day moving average with 2nd level at $0.9000.
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Farmward Energy
Weekly Update
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This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not ac-cept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
OPEC+ is expected to start its unprece-dented 9.7 million bpd cut in May and contin-ue into the month of June. The U.S. is doing its part as well as production has decreased 900,000 bpd from mid-March. Expect U.S. production to continue to decline as the number of rigs decreases. From March 13 to April 23, the number of rigs in Texas dropped 177 rigs to 231. This was a 43% reduction in just 6 weeks.
xFarmward Energy
Weekly Update
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This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not ac-cept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
Market Comments: Global energy demand has seen its biggest decline since WWII, with more than 6% expected this year for the U.S., 11% for Europe, and 4% for China. The IEA (International Energy Agency) says that emissions will fall by 8% in 2020 to the lowest since 2010, or six times greater than the recession of 2009.
There was a Chicago gasoline basis chart in the Update yesterday along with great comments by Bridget. The basis charts below show the gasoline basis in both Group 3 and Chicago in comparison to other years. Chicago gas basis is known for some wild swings; there have been years when it trades in a bigger range than the NYMEX futures do. Gasoline basis is recovering quickly from its huge downturn due to the U.S. population out and about more. Several states are opening back up for business, but even in states where that is not the case, cars on the road are increasing to a more normal level. Gaso-line demand (chart above) won’t be too far behind. The DOE inventory report today showed a 549,000-barrel recovery from the bottom (last week). Gas demand had reached the lowest level ever since records have been kept beginning in 1991.
xFarmward Energy
Weekly Update
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This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not ac-cept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
EIA-Summary
The EIA reported a draw of 600,000, decreasing propane inventory to 56.8 million barrels as of 4/24/20. This is 2.1 above 2019 and 4.1 million over the 5-year average of 52.7 million. During this week last year, propane experienced a 1.1 million build.
Propane demand (product supplied) increased by 372,000 bpd to 1,315,000 bpd. Propane production de-creased 13,000 bpd to 2,044,000 bpd.
Regional Inventories: Midwest up 300,000 to 11.1 million; Gulf down 1.2 to 39.9 million; East up 300,000 to 3.9 million; and West down 100,000 to 1.9 million. Historical Averages: Midwest is 300,000 above 2019 and 900,000 under the 5-year average of 12 million. Gulf Coast inventory is 3.6 million below last year and 4.1 million above the 5-year average of 35.8 million. East Coast is 800,000 above 2019 and 700,000 above the 5-year average of 3.2 million. Total propane imports were down 53,000 bpd to 77,000 bpd. East Coast down 24,000 to 27,000; Midwest down 34,000 to 19,000; Gulf unchanged at 0 bpd; West up 5,000 to 31,000. Propane exports decreased 257,000 to 893,000 bpd. One year ago exports were 1,341,000 bpd.
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Farmward Energy
Weekly Update
This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information.
As of 04/28/20 Price 1000 Gal 1500 Gal 2000 GalRuby FM $1.529 $151.9 $1.509 $1.499#2 Clear $2.009 $1.999 $1.989 $1.979
PricePropane Ag/Comm $1.05Propane Home Heat $1.15
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