farmward energy x weekly update this week’s energy market news · 2020. 10. 9. · x friday,...
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Friday, October 9, 2020x
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Farmward Energy
Weekly Update
This Week’s Energy Market NewsThis Week’s Energy Market News Hurricane Delta Update: Louisiana steeled itself on Thursday for another in a record-break series of violent storms as Hurricane Delta sped across the Gulf of Mexico toward a region still recovering from the last storm. Delta on Friday morning was a Category 3 storm, packing winds of 120 miles per hour and expected to bring winds, rain and a “life threatening” storm surge, National Hurricane Center forecasters said.
Market Opinion: Crude prices are down this morning, paring back some of this week’s gains; however, both benchmarks are on track for their biggest weekly gains since early June, supported by supply cuts caused by Hurricane Delta and a strike of energy workers in Norway. Look for the markets to react accord-ingly based on damage assessments filtering in from Hurricane Delta and news from Norway as the oil company and labour officials are set to meet today to resolve the strike.
This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not ac-cept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
Heating oil (daily): Heating oil futures prices have climbed higher over the past several trading ses-sions as news of President Trumps release from the hospital and the impending hurricane that has a good chunk of production offline in the Gulf. Looking at short term high’s & lows, HO is looking to test the 61.8% level at $1.2024. Heating oil futures have come up short the last time they tried to break through the psychological line. The market is still not overly strong, or weak which could allow the run up to occur.
United States retail prices: The U.S. av-erage regular gasoline retail price was un-changed from the previous week at $2.17 per gallon on August 17th, 43 cents lower than the same time last year.
The U.S. average diesel fuel price fell less than 1 cent, remaining virtually unchanged from the previous week at $2.43 per gallons on Aug. 17th, 57 cent lower than a year ago.
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Farmward Energy
Weekly Update
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This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not ac-cept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
WTI Crude Oil (Daily): Gen-erally speaking, WTI has trad-ed relatively sideways since June, staying within a range of $35.00 - $45.00 per barrel. Taking a closer look, the most recent dip seen on the adja-cent chart can be attributed to Trump being diagnosed with Covid-19 and since his release yesterday, the markets contin-ue to rise. Moving forward the market is likely to test higher levels as Hurricane Delta con-tinues to strengthen as it moves towards the coast of Louisiana. This combo of recent events could very well support a break out of the trade patterns that have recently been seen.
xFarmward Energy
Weekly Update
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This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not ac-cept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
While Midwest propane stocks strug-gled this summer, as stocks were below previous years, stocks have managed to rebound to more comfortable levels. Current stocks are at 27 million barrels vs. 27.9 million 2 years ago. Reports on crop drying are mixed depending on re-gion, some are going through LP whileothers on the sluggish side.
Rack propane prices continue to climb on the back of increased crude prices and crop drying demand. Once the hurricane passes, I would expect propane prices to be susceptible to weakness as supplies re-main healthy and the 6 to 10-day temperature outlook is at or above normal with below normal precipita-tion. According to the USDA, corn harvested is in line with the 5-year average with many northern states slightly ahead of schedule while soybeans harvested are 10% ahead of the 5-year average. It is rare to see price weakness at the racks in October as harvest is well underway, but it is not uncommon to see weak-ness in November when we are at the tail end of ag demand and at the beginning of home heat demand when end users should already be full.
xFarmward Energy
Weekly Update
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This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not ac-cept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
Propane News- EIA Inventory summary below
The EIA reported a national propane inventory draw of 200,000 for the week ending 10/2/20. Total inven-tory is now at 101.8 million barrels, which is 1 million above 2019 and 8.7 above the 5-year average of 93.1 million. During this week last year, propane experienced 200,000 build.
Propane demand (product supplied) increased 584,000 to 1,199,000 bpd. Propane production decreased by 92,000 bpd to 2,259,000 bpd.
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Farmward Energy
Weekly Update
This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
As of 10/05/20 Price 1000 Gal 1500 Gal 2000 GalRuby FM $1.649 $1.639 $1.629 $1.619#2 Clear $2.139 $2.129 $2.119 $2.109
PricePropane Ag/Comm $1.05Propane Home Heat $1.15
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