fall 2011 eoc - mark goldstein's presentation
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Findings from the 2010 CensusPresented to the 2011 EconomicPresented to the 2011 Economic
Outlook Conference,
Towson University
November 9th, 2011
Secretary Richard E. Hall
Mark Goldstein
Maryland Department of Planning
Findings from the 2010 Census
• Statewide Findings– Total Population Change
– Population Change by Age
– Change by Race & Hispanic Origin
– Impact of Foreign Born
• Jurisdiction Findings– Total Population Changep g
– Population by Age
– Change by Race & Hispanic OriginChange by Race & Hispanic Origin
– Impact of Foreign Born
Maryland Population (and rank within U.S.)y p ( )
4,780,753
5,296,486
5,773,552
4,216,933
, ,
1980 1990 2000 2010(18th) (19th) (19th) (19th)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and 2010 PL94-171 releasePrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011
Total Population Change for Maryland, 1900 ‐ 2010
757,688
821,710
521,757563,778
515,733
294 576
477,066
107,302
154,315181,865 189,718
294,576
1900‐ 1910‐ 1920‐ 1930‐ 1940‐ 1950‐ 1960‐ 1970‐ 1980‐ 1990‐ 2000‐
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: U.S. Census BureauPrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011
Percent Population Change for Maryland, 1900 ‐ 2010
28.6%
32.3%
26.5%
11.9% 12.5%11 6%
13.4%
9.0%
11.6%
7.5%
10.8%
9.0%
1900‐ 1910‐ 1920‐ 1930‐ 1940‐ 1950‐ 1960‐ 1970‐ 1980‐ 1990‐ 2000‐
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: U.S. Census BureauPrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011
Percent Population Change for Maryland & U.S., 1900 ‐ 2010
28.6%
32.3%
26.5%
U.S.
11.9% 12.5%11 6%
13.4%
9.0%
11.6%
7.5%
10.8%
9.0%
1900‐ 1910‐ 1920‐ 1930‐ 1940‐ 1950‐ 1960‐ 1970‐ 1980‐ 1990‐ 2000‐
Source: U.S. Census BureauPrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Findings from the 2010 Census
• Statewide Findings– Total Population Change
– Population Change by Age
– Change by Race & Hispanic Origin
– Impact of Foreign Born
• Jurisdiction Findings– Total Population Changep g
– Population by Age
– Change by Race & Hispanic OriginChange by Race & Hispanic Origin
– Impact of Foreign Born
Change in Population by Age for Maryland, 2000 to 2010
225,392
147,172
23,661
93,090
65,072
12 03931,224
12,039
‐120,584
0 19 20 34 35 44 45 54 55 64 65 74 75 84 85
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Demographic ProfilesPrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, May 2011
0‐19 20‐34 35‐44 45‐54 55‐64 65‐74 75‐84 85+
Percent of Maryland’s Population Ages 65 and Over
14%
10.8%11.3%
12.3%
10%
12%
7.3% 7.6%
9.4%
6%
8%
4%
6%
0%
2%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Demographic ProfilesPrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, May 2011
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Findings from the 2010 Census
• Statewide Findings– Total Population Change
– Population Change by Age
– Change by Race & Hispanic Origin
– Impact of Foreign Born
• Jurisdiction Findings– Total Population Changep g
– Population by Age
– Change by Race & Hispanic OriginChange by Race & Hispanic Origin
– Impact of Foreign Born
Change in Population by Non‐Hispanic Race and Hispanics for Maryland, 2000 to 2010
242,716Hispanic
106,956
209,494
Asian Alone
Black or African American Alone
42,894Two or More Races
503
2,593
American Indian and Alaska Native Alone
Some Other Race Alone
499Nat Hawaiian & Oth Pacific Isl Alone
‐128,589White Alone
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and 2010 PL94‐171 releasePrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011
Percent Change in Population by non‐Hispanic Race and Hispanics for Maryland, 2000 to 2010
51 7%
106.5%
Two or More Races
Hispanic
51.0%
51.7%
Asian Alone
Two or More Races
27.6%Some Other Race Alone
14.3%
26.1%
Black or African American Alone
Nat Hawaiian & Oth Pacific Isl Alone
3.8%American Indian and Alaska Native Alone
‐3.9%White Alone
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and 2010 PL94-171 releasePrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011
Population Share by non‐Hispanic Race and Hispanicsfor Marylandfor Maryland
4 0% 1.6% 4.3% 0.5% 0.5%
2000 2010
4.0%
5.5%2.2%
8.2%
27.7%
54.7%29 0%62.1% 29.0%
White Alone Black or African American Alone
Asian Alone Two or More Races
White Alone Black or African American Alone
Asian Alone Two or More Races
Hispanic Other * Hispanic Other *
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and 2010 PL94-171 releasePrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011
* Other includes American Indian, Native Hawaiian and other single race
2010 Minority Population Share
65.2%
77.3%
District of Columbia
Hawaii
59.5%
59.9%
New Mexico
California
45.9%
54.7%
Nevada
Texas
44 1%
45.3%
45.9%
Georgia
Maryland
42 1%
42.2%
44.1%
Fl id
Arizona
Georgia
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and 2010 PL94-171 releasePrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011
42.1%Florida
Percent of Maryland’s 2010 Population by Age Whi h i Mi it *Which is Minority *
70%
50%
60%
Age 38
30%
40%
20%
0%
10%
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 1001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 100
•Minority is defined as everyone other than non-Hispanic white alone.Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from Census 2010 (SF1), August 2010
Percent of Non‐Hispanic White and Minority Births in Marylandp y y
60%
54.7%
55.2%
50%
55%
45.6%
45.0%
45%
50%
35%
40%
Non‐Hispanic White Minority
30%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene
Net Natural Increase (births minus deaths) in Maryland( ) y
35,000
24,950
27,36428,954 28,596
27,596 26,852
25,000
30,000
15,000
20,000
6,152 6,5755,506 4,823
3,640 3,6755,000
10,000
0Non-Hispanic White Minority
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Maryland Department of Planning from Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene data
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Ratio of Net Natural Increase: Minority to Non‐Hispanic Whitey p
7.67.3
8.0
5.3
5.96.0
7.0
4.1 4.2
5.3
4.0
5.0
2.0
3.0
0.0
1.0
Source: Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Findings from the 2010 Census
• Statewide Findings– Total Population Change
– Population Change by Age
– Change by Race & Hispanic Origin
– Impact of Foreign Born
• Jurisdiction Findings– Total Population Changep g
– Population by Age
– Change by Race & Hispanic OriginChange by Race & Hispanic Origin
– Impact of Foreign Born
Change in Foreign Born in Maryland by Decade
285,380
204,821
117,913
71,236
7,9 3
30,167
Source: Decennial Census, 1960 – 2000 and American Community Survey (2010)
1960‐1970 1970‐1980 1980‐1990 1990‐2000 2000‐2010
Foreign Born as a Percent of the Maryland’s Total Population
13.9%
9.8%
4.6%
6.6%
3.0% 3.2%
Source: Decennial Census, 1960 – 2000 and American Community Survey (2010)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Region of Origin of Foreign Born who Entered Maryland:
Before 1990 2000 to 20102.0% 0.4% 0.9% 0.2%
34 2%
15.5%
7.7%
34.2%
10.6%
41.4%18.8%
37.2%31.1%
Latin America Asia
Africa Europe
Latin America Asia
Africa Europe
Source: 2010 American Community Survey
Northern America Oceania Northern America Oceania
Net Domestic Migration & Foreign Immigration for Maryland *
285,380
204,821
‐22,722
‐141,847
1990‐2000 2000‐2010
Net Domestic migration Foreign immigration
* Domestic migration for 1990-2000 and 2000 to 2010 periods are calculated as residuals, with the use of the change in foreign born.Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, October 2011
Net Domestic migration Foreign immigration
Increase in Foreign Born as a Percent of Total Population Gain in MarylandPopulation Gain in Maryland
58.3%
39.7%
Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, October 2011 using data from Census 1990, 2000 and 2010 ACS
1990‐2000 2000‐2010
Findings from the 2010 Census
• Statewide Findings– Total Population Change
– Population Change by Age
– Change by Race & Hispanic Origin
– Impact of Foreign Born
• Jurisdiction Findings– Total Population Changep g
– Population by Age
– Change by Race & Hispanic OriginChange by Race & Hispanic Origin
– Impact of Foreign Born
Population Change for Maryland’s Jurisdictions,2000 to 2010
48,000
50,737
61,905
98,436
d
Anne Arundel
Baltimore Co.
Prince George's
Montgomery
Top four = 54% of State total, down from approx
18 940
26,005
26,236
38,108
39,243
St. Mary's
Charles
Harford
Frederick
Howard 60% in 1980s and 1990s and 85% in the 1950s and 1960s
14,174
15,157
15,507
16,237
18,940
Calvert
Cecil
Washington
Carroll
St. Mary s
3 294
3,970
4,911
7,235
14,089
C li
Talbot
Worcester
Queen Anne's
Wicomico
251
1,000
1,723
1,944
3,294
Garrett
Kent
Somerset
Dorchester
Caroline
‐30,193
157
251
Baltimore City
Allegany
Garrett
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and 2010 PL94-171 releasePrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011
Population Change for Baltimore City
175,341
49 52871,048
54 226
90,608
49,528 54,226
‐10,684
‐33,237‐50,727
‐84 860
‐30,193
‐119,046
‐84,860
1900‐ 1910‐ 1920‐ 1930‐ 1940‐ 1950‐ 1960‐ 1970‐ 1980‐ 1990‐ 2000‐
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning
Percent Population Change for Maryland’s Jurisdictions,2000 to 2010
19.0%
19.5%
21.6%
22.0%
Calvert
Frederick
Charles
St. Mary's
12 0%
15.8%
16.6%
17.6%
17.8%
Harford
Howard
Wicomico
Cecil
Queen Anne's
11.1%
11.3%
11.7%
11.8%
12.0%
Caroline
Montgomery
Talbot
Washington
Harford
7.7%
9.8%
10.6%
10.8%
Prince George's
Anne Arundel
Worcester
Carroll
0 8%
5.2%
6.3%
6.7%
7.0%
Garrett
Kent
Dorchester
Baltimore Co.
Somerset
‐4.6%
0.2%
0.8%
Baltimore City
Allegany
Garrett
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and 2010 PL94-171 releasePrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011
Findings from the 2010 Census
• Statewide Findings– Total Population Change
– Population Change by Age
– Change by Race & Hispanic Origin
– Impact of Foreign Born
• Jurisdiction Findings– Total Population Changep g
– Population by Age
– Change by Race & Hispanic OriginChange by Race & Hispanic Origin
– Impact of Foreign Born
2010 Percent of Population Ages 65 and Overfor Maryland’s Jurisdictions
17.7%17.8%
21.8%23.2%23.7%
Dorchester
Allegany
Kent
Worcester
Talbot
14.3%14.6%14.9%
17.4%17.7%
Washington
Baltimore Co
Queen Anne's
Garrett
12.5%13.0%13.0%13.3%13.8%
Harford
Wicomico
Carroll
Caroline
Somerset
11.7%11.8%12.3%12.3%
l i i
Cecil
Anne Arundel
Maryland
Montgomery
10.1%10.3%
10.9%11.1%
11.7%
Howard
St. Mary's
Calvert
Frederick
Baltimore City
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Demographic ProfilesPrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, May 2011
9.4%9.5%
Prince George's
Charles
Findings from the 2010 Census
• Statewide Findings– Total Population Change
– Population Change by Age
– Change by Race & Hispanic Origin
– Impact of Foreign Born
• Jurisdiction Findings– Total Population Changep g
– Population by Age
– Change by Race & Hispanic OriginChange by Race & Hispanic Origin
– Impact of Foreign Born
Percentage Point Increase in Minority Share, 2000 to 2010
10.210.8
13.418.9
Frederick
Baltimore County
Howard
Charles
5.86.6
7.39.4
10.2
Washington
Harford
Anne Arundel
Prince George's
Montgomery
4.04.4
4.95.2
5.8
St. Mary's
Allegany
Wicomico
Cecil
Washington
2.72.93.43.73.9
Dorchester
Baltimore City
Calvert
Somerset
Carroll
1.11.2
2.32.52.7
Queen Anne's
Garrett
Talbot
Caroline
0.10.3
Worcester
Kent
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and 2010 PL94-171 releasePrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011
Findings from the 2010 Census
• Statewide Findings– Total Population Change
– Population Change by Age
– Change by Race & Hispanic Origin
– Impact of Foreign Born
• Jurisdiction Findings– Total Population Changep g
– Population by Age
– Change by Race & Hispanic OriginChange by Race & Hispanic Origin
– Impact of Foreign Born
Change in Foreign Born 2000 to 2010
33,997
61,403
81,502
Baltimore
Prince George's
Montgomery
14,937
21,370
26,953
Frederick
Anne Arundel
Howard
5,706
6,163
14,352
Charles
Harford
Baltimore City
2,508
2,961
4,382
Calvert
Wicomico
Washington
1,477
1,603
1,968
Carroll
Cecil
St. Mary's
Source: Census 2000 and the 2010 American Community SurveyPrepared by, the Maryland Department of Planning, October 2011
9Allegany
Gains in Foreign Born Population as a Percent of Total Population Growth, 2000 to 2010
79.2%
96.3%
Montgomery
Prince George's
43.1%
66.1%
66.5%
Anne Arundel
Baltimore
Howard
23.2%
28.0%
38.5%
Harford
Washington
Frederick
17.4%
20.9%
21.5%
Calvert
Wicomico
Charles
9.9%
10.1%
10.5%
Allegany
St. Mary's
Cecil
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and ACS 2010Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, October 2011
9.0%Carroll
Implications
• Increasing diversity: Given the age structure of minorities and non‐Hispanic whites, growthof minorities and non Hispanic whites, growth in the labor force in the coming decades will be dominated by minoritiesbe dominated by minorities
Th ill b d t th t• There will be a need to ensure that educational and job opportunities are
ibl t ll if M l d i t ff ti laccessible to all if Maryland is to effectively compete in the world economy
Implicationsp
• Aging: An older population will need different housing options than are typically provided inhousing options than are typically provided in today’s market. Also, a variety of programs will need to be ramped up that will allowwill need to be ramped up that will allow seniors to age in place.