7/28/2019 Fairley IEEE China Fukushima

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Chinas surging eConomy runs mostly on coal, which

slakes our-fths o the countrys thirst or electricity. And all

over China, the consequences o that dependence are apparent:

Its major cities are swathed in deadly smo, reional blackouts

ensue when coal trains bo down on cloed rail networks,

and coal minin routinely kills more than 2000 people a year.

China desperately needs alternatives to coal-fred power.

So Beijin has launched an aressive plan to decarbon-

ize Chinas economy by pushin nuclear and renewable

energ to 15 percent o energ consumption by 2020, up rom9.5 percent last year. Nuclear eneratin capacity would rise

to over 80 iawatts rom the 11.3 GW currently in place. As

a result, analysts expect China to meet its environmental oal

or 2020: to reduce carbon emissions per yuan o economic

output by 40 percent compared with 2005 levels.

To meet its nuclear numbers, China has embarked on the

worlds biest reactor buildin proram. Beijin has stan-

dardized its nuclear juernaut around two pressurized water

reactor desins: the Chinese/French CPR-1000, desined in

the 1990s, and Westinhouse Electrics AP1000, desined

in the 2000s. The country is turnin both types out at hih

speed. Accordin to the World Nuclear Association, 14 reac-

tors were operatin as o September, and 26 more were under

construction. Chinas Ministry o Environmental Protection

has said that 100 reactors may be eedin the rid by 2020.

They are not just buildin nuclear power

plants. They are buildin an entire indus-

try, says Chi-Jen Yan, a technolog pol-

icy expert at Duke Universitys Center on

Global Chane.

Nevertheless, the Fukushima disaster

has hihlihted the risks o Chinas ares-

sive nuclear build-out. In Fukushimas

wake Chinese leaders put new reactor

projects on hold while they reviewed thesaety o existin ones. Ocials concerned

by a potential shortall o trained reactor

operators and inspectors suested trim-

min Chinas 2020 oal or more than

80 GW nuclear capacity by 10 GW or so.

Experts also worry that corrupt man-

aement o the build-out could aect the

saety o Chinas reactors. As Yan puts

it: I everythin is done well, the risks

should be low. But we dont know i every-

thin is done correctly.

China may well resume all o its planned

projects once the post-Fukushima reviews

are complete. But Yan says that saety concerns may cause

China to ocus its eorts on the Westinhouse AP1000 instead

o the CPR-1000. Modest cost made the CPR-1000 attrac-

tive, but like Fukushimas second-eneration reactors, its

emerency coolin systems require electr icity. The third-

eneration AP1000 reactor, in contrast, has a passive coolin

system: water stored atop the plants pressure vessel, ready to

be ravity-ed to the reactor core below.

Meanwhile Chinas state-owned utilities have raced ar

ahead o Beijins ocial oals or renewable energ. More than40 GW o wind power was installed by the end o 2010, smash-

in the 5 GW taret set by Beijin three years earlier.

Chinas investments could transorm the country by mid-

century. A Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory report

projects that China could install as much as 550 GW o nuclear

capacity and 970 GW o wind, hydro, and solar power by 2050.

Combined with energ eciency uprades, that sure o low-

carbon electricity would slash Chinas annual CO2 emissions

rom power eneration to nearly one-fth their current level.

Yan sees a possibility that Chinas central planners could

build enouh momentum within a decade to leave the United

States behind i Washinton doesnt adopt carbon-reduction

measures to drive its economy o coal. I the U.S. policy-

makers continue to postpone, says Yan, the U.S. may

someday fnd itsel unable to catch up. o

China Doubles DownBjng psss fowd wh s co budng boomBy Peter Fairley

Growth Industry: Work is under way on 26 new reaors in china, inluding

his ressurized waer reaor in Fujian roine. PHOTO: ZHANG GUOJUN/XINHUA/REDUX