exports implementation plan · resulting plan, the ‘goal plan’, is presented here along with a...

EXPORTSImplementationPlan

EXPORTSScienceDefinitionTeam

SubmissionDate:October13,2016

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1.0 SummaryThegoaloftheEXportProcessesintheOceanfromRemoTeSensing(EXPORTS)fieldcampaignistodevelopapredictiveunderstandingoftheexportandfateofglobaloceanprimaryproductionanditsimplicationsfortheEarth’scarboncycleinpresentandfutureclimates.EXPORTSbuildsupondecadesofNASA-supportedresearchassessingglobalnetprimaryproduction(NPP)fromspaceandisdesignedtodeliverscienceofsignificantsocietalrelevancebybettercharacterizingthefateoforganiccarbonintheocean.

EXPORTS’overallapproachistodevelopandvalidateoceancarboncyclemodelsfromobservationsmadeoverarangeofecosystem/carboncycling(ECC)states.ObservationsofthefundamentalNPPexportandfatepathwaysaswellassupportingdataarerequiredtodevelopsatellitealgorithmsandnumericalmodelsvalidovertheglobalrangeofECCstates.Thusfielddataareneededfrombothintensivefieldcampaigns,suchasthosedetailedintheEXPORTSSciencePlan,aswellaspreviousresultsminedfromtheliterature.

ThisdocumentistheSDT’sattempttofindanefficientsolutionthatsuccessfullyanswerstheEXPORTSScienceQuestionsandmaximizesvaluetotheagency,opportunitiesfortransformativediscovery,andbroadcommunityparticipation.Theresultingplan,the‘GoalPlan’,ispresentedherealongwitharangeofdescopingoptionsfortheoverallprogram.TheImplementationPlanaddressesthemeasurementsandmodelactivitiesthatareneededaswellasnotionalcruise,autonomousplatform,projectmanagement,datamanagement,andpartnershipplans.ArobustcostestimatefortheGoalPlanispresentedalongwithdescopingoptionsandananalysisofthetradeoffsbetweeninvestmentandscientificreturnsassociatedwithdescopingfromtheGoalPlan.DetailedplanningdocumentsthatmaybeusefulinEXPORTS’implementationareincludedinthesupplementalmaterialssectionofthisdocument.Formalinputfromtheoceansciencecommunitywassolicitedonapreliminarydraftofthisdocumentandthecommentswereconsideredcarefullyinfinalizingthepresentdocument.Basedupontheseconsiderations,theSDTstronglyrecommendsthatanydescopingoptionforEXPORTSmust1)quantifyallNPPexportandfatepathwaysand2)includesynthesisandmodelingactivitiesthroughout.AnyfieldcampaignprogramwithoutthesetwocomponentswouldnotbeEXPORTS.

http://cce.nasa.gov/cce/pdfs/EXPORTS_Science_Plan_May18_2015_final.pdf

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2.0 IntroductionThegoaloftheEXportProcessesintheOceanfromRemoTeSensing(EXPORTS)fieldcampaignistodevelopapredictiveunderstandingoftheexportandfateofglobaloceanprimaryproductionanditsimplicationsfortheEarth’scarboncycleinpresentandfutureclimates.EXPORTSwilltestthehypothesisthatthefatesofoceannetprimaryproduction(NPP)areregulatedbythestateofthesurfaceecosystem,whichlinkssatelliteremotesensingsciencetooceancarboncyclingprocesses.DevelopingapredictiveunderstandingofthefatesofglobalNPPandtheirrolesinthecarboncycleisaNASAagencyobjectiveandbuildsupondecadesofNASA-supportedresearchassessingglobalNPPfromspace.EXPORTSisdesignedtodeliverscienceofsignificantsocietalrelevance,representingakeycomponentintheU.S.investmenttounderstandEarthasanintegratedsystem,bybettercharacterizingthefateoforganiccarbonintheocean.TheoverallapproachpresentedintheEXPORTSSciencePlanistodevelopandvalidateoceancarboncyclemodelsfromobservationsmadeoverarangeofecosystem/carboncycling(ECC)states,eachofwhichcanbethoughtofasthewindowoftimeandspacewhereallofthefundamentalNPPexportandfatepathwayshavebeenrobustlyquantifiedalongwithconstraintsontheirintegratedbiogeochemicalimpact.Further,supportingfielddataareneededtodevelopsatellitealgorithmsandnumericalmodelsthatarevalidovertheglobalrangeofECCstates.Thesefielddatawillcomefrombothintensivefieldcampaigns,suchasthosedetailedintheEXPORTSSciencePlan,aswellaspreviousresultsminedfromtheliterature.TheSciencePlanandotherinformationareavailableathttp://cce.nasa.gov/obb/exports.

TheEXPORTSSciencePlanhasbeenthroughextensivecommunityvetting,formalcommentsandapeerreviewpanel(thishistoryisincludedinSections11.4to11.7oftheEXPORTSSciencePlan).InOctober2015,NASAcompetedtheformationofaScienceDefinitionTeam(SDT)tocreateanImplementationPlantoguideEXPORTS’execution(seeNASA’sChargetotheSDTinSection7.1).ServiceontheEXPORTSSDTwasvoluntaryandnocompensationwasprovidedfromNASA.TheSDTwillbedisbandedshortlyaftersubmissionofthefinalplan.ItisimportanttorecognizethattheSDThasonlysuggestedapotentialimplementationtoNASAanddoesnothavetheauthoritytoadviseordirecttheagency.ThegoalofthisdocumentistopresentanefficientstrategytoimplementtheEXPORTSSciencePlanasproposed,vettedandapprovedbyNASA.ThisrequiredtheSDTtodeviseafield,modelingandsynthesisresearchprogramthatwillanswertheEXPORTSScienceQuestionseffectively,efficientlyandwithahighdegreeofcertainty.TheSDTtermedthisplantheGoalPlan.ToimplementtheGoalPlan,theSDTneededtounderstandandquantifymanyfactors,including:• Themeasurements&modelsrequiredtoanswertheEXPORTSScienceQuestions,• Efficientandeffectivemeasurement,projectmanagement&partnershipplans,• ArobustcostestimatefortheGoalPlan,and• Suggestionsfordescopingoptionsalongwithanalysisofthebalancebetweenagencyinvestmentandprogramsuccess.


http://cce.nasa.gov/obb/exports


http://cce.nasa.gov/obb/exports/team.html



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TheGoalPlanistheSDT’sattempttofindanefficientsolutionthatsuccessfullyanswerstheEXPORTSScienceQuestionsandmaximizesvaluetotheagency,opportunitiesfortransformablediscovery,andbroadcommunityparticipation.Attimes,theImplementationPlanmayappearoverlyprescriptive.ThisapproachwasnecessarytobothoutlinecomponentscriticalforsuccessfullyansweringtheScienceQuestionsandtocreatearobustestimateoftherequiredresourcesnecessarytoachievetheGoalPlan.IftheEXPORTSfieldcampaignistooccur,itmaylookverydifferentfromthepresentplan.Factorsdrivingsuchdifferenceswouldbetheextentofavailableresources,theestablishmentofpartnershipswithagenciesandentitiesbeyondNASA,theresultsofpeerreviewedcompetitionforroleswithintheprogram,andtheintegrationofnewideasintotheplanningofthefieldcampaign.InJuly2016,theSDTsolicitedcommentsfromtheoceansciencescommunityonadraftofthisdocument.TheSDTwasinterestedincommentsonthesuitabilityoftheplansingeneralbutwasespeciallyinterestedincommentsregardingalternativedescopingoptionsandcostingstrategies,inputforpotentialpartnerships,thesuggestedimplementationtimeline,projectanddatamanagementaswellascapacitiesnotreflectedintheplan.Atotalof48formalcommentswerereceivedfrommembersoftheoceansciencecommunityrangingfromgraduatestudentstoemeritiscientists.ThereviewersexpressednearunanimityintheirsupportofEXPORTSandmanyusefulspecificcommentswerereceivedandusedinimprovingthisfinalplan.ThecommunitycommentswereespeciallyusefulinarrivinguponthefinalrecommendationfortheminimumacceptableconfigurationfortheEXPORTSfieldcampaign.Adescriptionofthedraftplan’sreviewprocess,anoverviewofcommentsreceived,andtheSDT’sresponsecanbefoundintheDraftImplementationPlanCommentsinSection7.7ofthisdocument.Lastly,thisdocumentisintendedtoprovideNASAwithsuggestionsonhowtoimplementtheEXPORTSSciencePlanasstatedinNASA’sChargetotheSDT.Hence,thisdocumentisnotintendedtoprovideguidancetoindividualsplanningtoproposetoparticipateinEXPORTS,nordoesitdescribehowthecompetitionprocesscouldoccur.IfEXPORTSisconducted,competition-specificinstructionswillcomefromNASAdirectly.

3.0 ScienceQuestionstoRequirementsEXPORTSisameasurement,modelingandsynthesisprogramdesignedtodeliverscienceresultsofsocietalrelevance.Figure1showsaconceptualdiagramlinkingprogramresourcesandelementstosocietalbenefits.EXPORTSisbuiltonthreeScienceQuestions(SQ)whoseanswersprovideapathfortheremotemonitoringoftheexportandfatesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)inthemodernocean.EXPORTSwillalsoimprovehowwepredictthesechangesunderfutureclimates(EXPORTSSciencePlan).Toanswerthesequestions,EXPORTSwillexaminetheroleofeachofthefivepathwaysoforganicmaterialtransportfromthesurfaceoceanintotheinteriorbymeasuringasuiteof81observablesthataregroupedinto5keyProgramElements(Figure1).PrincipalInvestigator(PI)-drivenprojectswilladdressdomain-specificscienceobjectivesinthesekeyProgramElementareasandwillperformthesynthesisactivitiesneededtoanswerthesciencequestions.Requiredresourcesinclude,butarenotlimitedto,observationsfromoceanographiccruises,autonomousplatformsandremotesensingaswellasarangeofnumerical

http://cce.nasa.gov/obb/exports/documents/Draft_Implementation_Plan_Comments.pdf





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modelingefforts.ThemodulardesignofEXPORTSsuggeststhatitcanbeeasilyaugmentedbynationalandinternationalpartnershipsprovidingadditionalexpertiseandcomplementaryscience.ConsiderablepreparationwillalsounderpinEXPORTSthroughrecentlyfundedNASAprojectsfocusedondataminingandobservingsystemsimulationexperiments(OSSEs).TheseeffortsbuildadatabaseofECCstatesfromtheliteraturetoextendtherangeofstatesavailableandOSSEstorefineexperimentalplanning(Figure1).

Figure1–TheEXPORTSconceptualdiagramlinkingprogrampreparation,resources,andelementsviaexportpathwaystosciencequestionsandsocietallyrelevantoutcomes.

TheEXPORTSSciencePlanidentifies3keyinterrelatedquestionsconcerningthefateofoceanNPP(Table1).ScienceQuestions1and2focusonhowprocessesinthesurfaceandthesubsurfaceoceanscontroltheexport(SQ1)andattenuation(SQ2)oforganicmatterintotheoceaninterior.SQ1andSQ2arebrokendownintofoursub-questionsthatidentifythemostsignificantcurrentuncertaintiesinourunderstandingofthoseecosystemcharacteristicsthatpromoteexportoforganicmatterandcontrolsontheefficiencyofitsverticaltransferintotheocean’sinterior.

ScienceQuestion3askshowtheanswerstoSQ1andSQ2improvecurrentandfutureestimatesofecosystem/carboncyclingprocessesandtheirimplicationsonlargertimeandspacescales(SQ3).ThedependenceofSQ3onSQ1andSQ2alsosuggeststhatEXPORTScouldbeimplementedintwophases,wherePhase1tacklesSQ1andSQ2togetherandPhase2usestheresultinginformation(anddataminedobservations)toanswerSQ3.BecauseofthedependencyofSQ3onSQ1andSQ2,hereweemphasizegreater

Program resources

Export pathways

Outcomes & benefits

Program preparation Data mining

SQ1: Export from the euphotic zone

SQ2: Attenuation in twilight zone

Monitoring NPP fates in present ocean

Predicting NPP fates for future oceans

Science questions

Program elements

Phytoplankton & microbes Export

Sinking algal cells

Sinking aggregates

Zooplankton by-products

Advection, mixing & utilization

Zooplankton migration

Physics & BGC stocks Optics Zooplankton

Remote sensing PROCESS & SURVEY

CRUISES National & International Partnerships

Persistent sampling with autonomous

platforms

SQ3: Synthesize & model export and fates of NPP

SDT Planning OSSEs

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detailinPhase1.ImplementationofPhase2isdiscussedinSection4.5.Clearly,synthesisactivitiesarerequiredthroughoutinordertoanswerallofthesciencequestions.

Table1:EXPORTSScienceQuestionsandAssociatedSub-Questions

SQ1 Howdoupperoceanecosystemcharacteristicsdeterminetheverticaltransferoforganicmatterfromthewell-litsurfaceocean?

1a Howdoesplanktoncommunitystructureregulatetheexportoforganicmatterfromthesurfaceocean?

1b Howdothefivepathwaysthatdriveexport(cf.,sinkingofintactphytoplankton,aggregatesorzooplanktonbyproducts,verticalsub-mesoscaleadvection&activeverticalmigration)varywithplanktoncommunitystructure?

1c Whatcontrolsparticleaggregation/disaggregationofexportedorganicmatterandhowarethesecontrolsinfluencedbyplanktoncommunitycomposition?

1d Howdophysicalandecologicalprocessesacttogethertoexportorganicmatterfromthesurfaceocean?

SQ2 Whatcontrolstheefficiencyofverticaltransferoforganicmatterbelowthewell-litsurfaceocean?

2a Howdoestransferefficiencyoforganicmatterthroughthemesopelagicvaryamongthefiveprimarypathwaysforexport?

2b Howisthetransferefficiencyoforganicmattertodepthrelatedtoplanktoncommunitystructureinthewell-litsurfaceocean?

2c Howdotheabundanceandcompositionofcarriermaterialsinthesurfaceocean(cf.,opal,dust,PIC)influencethetransferefficiencyoforganicmattertodepth?

2d Howdoesvariabilityinenvironmentaland/orecosystemfeaturesdefinetherelativeimportanceofprocessesthatregulatethetransferefficiencyoforganicmattertodepth(i.e.,zooplanktongrazing,microbialdegradation,organicCsolubilization,verticalmigrationactivetransport,fragmentation&aggregation,convectionandsubduction)?

SQ3 HowcantheknowledgegainedfromEXPORTSbeusedtoreduceuncertaintiesincontemporary&futureestimatesoftheexportandfateofupperoceannetprimaryproduction?

3a Whatkeyplanktonecosystemcharacteristics(cf.,food-webstructureandenvironmentalvariations)arerequiredtoaccuratelymodeltheexportandfateofupperoceannetprimaryproduction?

3b Howdokeyplanktonicecosystemcharacteristicsvaryandcantheybeassessedknowingsurfaceoceanprocessesalone?

3c Cantheexportandfateofupperoceannetprimaryproductionbeaccuratelymodeledfromsatellite-retrievablepropertiesaloneorwillcoincidentinsitumeasurementsberequired?

3d Howcanthemechanisticunderstandingofcontemporaryplanktonicfoodwebprocessesdevelopedherebeusedtoimprovepredictionsoftheexportandfateofupperoceannetprimaryproductionunderfutureclimatescenarios?

InordertoanswereachoftheEXPORTSsciencequestionsandsubquestions,requiredmeasurementswereidentified,tabulated,associatedwithasamplingplatform,andprioritized.Table2providesacondensedversionoftheCompleteMeasurementTable,wheretherequiredmeasurementsaresortedintoProgramElementswithrationalesandlinkagestosubquestionsandasummaryofpriorityforplacingthemeasurementonasamplingplatform.TheCompleteMeasurementTableprovidesmoredetailaboutprioritizationandanaccompanyingMeasurementFootnoteDocumentoffersmethodologicaldetailsconcerningeachmeasuremententry.

http://cce.nasa.gov/obb/exports/documents/Complete_Measurement_Table.xlsx


http://cce.nasa.gov/obb/exports/documents/Complete_Measurement_Table_Footnotes.pdf

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Table2:CondensedMeasurementTableSortedintoProgramElements(seeCompleteMeasurementTableforacompletedescriptionoftherequisitemeasurementsuite)

Programelement Platform Method EXPORTSsciencequestionneeds Measurementtypes&examplesSurvey Proces

sAuto

Phyto&microbes CTD FCM/microscopy

Phytoplanktonbiomassproxiesanddiversity flowcytometry(number,volume,groups);imagingcytometry/microscopy

1 1 -


Phytoplanktonbiomass sortingflowcytometry/imagingmicroscopy - 1 -


Heterotrophicprokaryotesandprotistconcentration(cellnumber)andsize/volume,includingviralnumbers

flowcytometrywithstainingandepfluorescentmicroscopy 1 1 -


Heterotrophicnanoflagellateandlargerprotistconcentration(cell#size/volumeanddiversity

flowcytometry,digitalimagingmicroscopy,invertedmicroscopy

1 1 -

Phyto&microbes CTD sensor VariableFluorescence variablefluorescenceFv/Fm 2 1 -

Phyto&microbes CTD omics Phytoplanktoncommunitycomposition DNA-basedcommunitycomposition(geneticprofiling)&microbialandphytoplanktonmetatranscriptomes

2 1 -

Phyto&microbes CTD omics Heterotrophicprokaryoticcommunitycomposition

DNA-basedcommunitycomposition(geneticprofiling) 2 1 -

Phyto&microbes CTD omics Heterotrophicprotistcommunitycomposition DNA-basedcommunitycomposition(geneticprofiling) 2 1 -

Phyto&microbes CTD experimental-omics

Phytoplanktonandmicrobialmetabolism proteomiccollectionfromprocesscruisesand/ornutrientmanipulationswithgeneexpression

- 2 -

Phyto&microbes CTD geochem NetCommunityProduction NCP(O2/Ar) 1 1 -

Phyto&microbes CTD experimental PhytoplanktonProductivity NPP/NCC(14C),somesizefractionated - 1 -

Phyto&microbes CTD geochem PhytoplanktonProductivity GPP(tripleOisotope) 2 1 -

Phyto&microbes CTD experimental PhytoplanktonProductivity GPP(18O) - 2 -

Phyto&microbes CTD experimental Viralinfection&dilutions variousincludingFCM,electronmicroscopy&probes,mitomycinCincubations

- 1 -

Phyto&microbes CTD experimental HeterotrophicBacterialProduction 3HTdror3HLeuincorprationmethod - 1 -

Phyto&microbes CTD experimental DOMremineralizationExp SeawaterDilutioncultures - 1 -

Zooplankton nets nettows Zooplanktonmetazoanconcentrationwatercolumnaverage

NetTows-vertical 1 1 -

Zooplankton sensor accoustics Zooplanktonmetazoanbiomass Acoustics 1 2 2

Zooplankton nets day/nighttows Verticalstructureofzooplanktonmetazoanconcentration(animalnumber)andsize/volume

MOCNESSnettows-day/nightdepthresolvedwithmicroscopicordigitalanalysis

- 1 -

Zooplankton nets experimental Fragmentation Experimentswithzooplanktonimpactsonparticlesizespectra

- 1 -

Zooplankton nets experimental Zooplanktonmetabolism(respirationandexcretion)

Nettowstocollect;SPOT,ETSmethods,weight-specifcmetabolicrates

- 1 -

Zooplankton nets experimental MicrozooplanktonGrazing Shipbaseddilutionexperiments - 1 -

Zooplankton nets experimental MesozooplanktonGrazing multiprongapproaches-seecomments - 1 -

Zooplankton nets experimental Mesozooplanktonfecalpelletproduction fecalpelletIDandproductionexperiments - 1 -

Zooplankton sensor accoustics Fish(tertiaryconsumers/carnivores)biomass Acoustics-hullmounted 1-UW - -

Export&aggregates trap deploy-CHN/mass

ParticlefluxEZ&TZ-trapbased Sedimenttrapsfordirectcollectionofmajorfluxcomponentssuchasmass,PIC,bSi,N,P,Lithogenics,TEP

- 1 1

Export&aggregates trap geochem ParticlefluxEZ&TZ-trapbased Sedimenttrapsforbiomarkers - 1 -

Export&aggregates trap omics ParticlefluxEZ&TZ-trapbased Sedimenttrapsforomics - 1 -

Export&aggregates trap gels ParticlefluxEZ&TZ-trapbased SedimenttrapsforID-polyacrilimidegeltraps - 1 -

Export&aggregates CTD geochem ParticlefluxEZ&TZ-insitutracers 234Thfluxstudies(alsoneedlargeparticleX/Thratio) 1 2 2

Export&aggregates CTD geochem ParticlefluxEZ&TZ-insitutracers 210Po,228Thfluxstudies 2 - -

Export&aggregates insitupump

geochem sizefractionatedparticlecollection largeparticlecollection-insitupumps(w/234Th) 1 2 -

Export&aggregates trap optics ParticlefluxEZ&TZ-trapbased Opticalfluxgauges(ontrapand/orindependentfloat) - 1 1

Export&aggregates trap cameras ParticlefluxEZ&TZ-proxies Insitucamerasontraps - 1 2

Export&aggregates CTD/AUV/towed

cameras AggregatePSDandfluxderivedfromparticledistributions

particlecameras(e.g.,UVP,VPR,LOPC,etc.) 1 1 1

Export&aggregates CTD/AUV/towed

cameras Zooplanktonmetazoanbiomass Insitucamera(e.g.,UVP,VPR) 1 1 2

Export&aggregates trap experimental Sinkingvelocity SettlingVelocityTrapsorotherinsitudevices - 2 -

Export&aggregates CTD experimental Sinkingvelocity Settlingcolumns - 1 -

Export&aggregates trap experimental InSituMicrobialmetabolism,wholewater insituorpressurizedincubationchamberwater - 1 -

Export&aggregates trap experimental InSituMicrobialmetabolism,sinkingparticles Insituincubationchamber(RESPIRE)ortrapparticlesexpts - 1 -

Export&aggregates CTD experimental Aggregation&disaggregation Aggregationexperiments - 1 -

Optics CTD/AUV/towed

sensor PAR,above-waterandsubsurface PAR 1 1 1

Optics CTD geochem CDOMabsorption CDOMabsorptionspectrum 1 1 1

Optics CTD geochem Phytoplanktonanddetritalabsorptionspectrum absorptionspectrum(Kishinomethod) 1 1 1

Optics CTD sensor Spectralparticleabsorption acsforpigmentandspeciesproxy 1 1 1

Optics CTD sensor Spectralparticleattenuation acsforparticlesize 1 1 1


sensor Particlesize Multiple-wavelengthbackscattering 1 1 1


sensor Remotesensingreflectance(subsurfaceobs) Ed(λ)&Lu(λ) 1 1 1

Optics ship sensor Water-leavingradiance(-->remotesensingreflectance)abovewater

Lw(λ) 1 - -

Optics ship sensor LIDAR ship-mountedLIDAR 2 - -


sensor Singlewavelengthbeamcandbbp(ie650nm) acs/C-Star/C-Rover,othertransmissometersandbackscatteringsensors

1 1 1

Optics CTD sensor Birefringent(calcite)particles polarizedbeamc(WETLabsPIC/POCsensor) 2 2 2

Optics ship sensor Particulateinorganiccarbon acid-labilebackscattering 1 2 -


sensor Fluxderivedfromparticledistributions Backscatteringsensorsonautonomousplatforms 2 1 1

Optics CTD sensor/geochem

Totalsmallparticlesizespectrum e.g.,CoulterCounter(bench),LISST(insitu)forsmallparticles

1 1 -

1c2abc

1ab2abcd

1ab2abc

1ab2abc

1abc

1d2abc

1abcd2abc

1abcd2abc

1ab2abc

1abcd

1abcd

2abcd

2abcd

1ab2abcd

1abcd2abcd

1abc2abcd

1abc2abcd

1ab2d

1ab2d

1abcd

1abcd

1abd2abcd

1ab2abcd

1ab2abcd

1ab2abc

1ab2abcd

1abc2abcd

1abc2abcd

1abc2abcd

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1abd2abc

1c2abcd

Priority

1ab

1ab

1ab

1d2abcd

1d2abcd

Addressed

1abc2abc

1abd2abcd

1ab2abcd

SQs

1ab

1ab

1abd

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1abc

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2d

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Table2illustrateswhatmeasurementsareneededtoanswerthefirsttwoEXPORTSsciencequestions.Themeasurementsaregroupedintothe5ProgramElements:Phyto&Microbes,Zooplankton,Export&Aggregates,Optics,andBulkBiogeochemistry&Physics(seealsoFigure1).Nearlyalloftherequiredmeasurementswillbevaluableforansweringmorethanonesubquestion.Insomecases,ameasurementislistedunderoneprogramelementforbrevity,butisalsoarelevantmeasurementinanother(forexample,opticalcamerasinExport&AggregatesandOptics).Arangeofmethodsisrequiredtobuildadetailedpictureofthesystemandtobalancethestrengthsandsensitivitiesofdifferentapproaches.ForexampletoanswerSQ1C(Whatcontrolsparticleaggregation/disaggregationofexportedorganicmatterandhowarethesecontrolsinfluencedbyplanktoncommunitycomposition?),awidevarietyofmeasurementsarerequiredrangingfromgenomics(foridentifyingphytoplanktonandmicrobialcommunitiesthatcontributetothecompositionoftheaggregates)toexperimentalwork(measuringaggregationanddisaggregationrates).Itisimportanttonotethateachmeasurementmayincludeanumberofdifferentapproachesforredundancyandclosure(e.g.,avarietyofdifferentcameraapproachescouldbeusedtomeasuretheparticlesizedistribution(PSD)ofaggregates).

PrioritiesarealsoassessedforeachmeasurementoneachplatformintheCompleteMeasurementTable.InTable2,a‘1’indicatesthatthemeasurementisessential,a‘2’indicatesitisusefulbutnotessential,anda‘-’indicatesitisnotnecessaryforansweringoneofthesciencequestions.Thispriorityassignmentisdoneseparatelyforeachofthetwoshipsthatwillbeoperatingduringeachcruise(seenextSectionfordetails).Forexample,theremaybereasonstofocusaspecificmeasurementfollowingatargetwaterparcelsuchthatitisapriorityfortheLagrangian-samplingprocessship.Alternatively,it

Programelement Platform Method EXPORTSsciencequestionneeds Measurementtypes&examples

Survey Process

AutoBulkBGC&physics CTD/AUV Rosette&

sensorsCTD-seealsophysicalprocesses CTD-O2,T/S 1 1 1

BulkBGC&physics CTD geochem Chlorophyllfluorescence invivochlorophyllfluorescencesensor 1 1 1BulkBGC&physics CTD geochem particlecomposition HPLCpigments 1 1 -BulkBGC&physics CTD geochem particlecomposition Chlorophyllincl.somesizefractionated 1 1 -BulkBGC&physics CTD geochem Oxygen O2bottle(Winkler) 1 1 -BulkBGC&physics CTD geochem DissolvedInorganicNitrogen,Phosphorous,

SilicateFrozenforlaterautoanalyzer 1 2 -

BulkBGC&physics CTD geochem DOMforexportviaphysicalmixing DOM(i.e.hightemperatuecombustion,persulfateoxidation,etc)

1 2 -

BulkBGC&physics CTD optics DOMsourcefromfluorescence Spectralfluorescenceondiscretesamples 2 2 -BulkBGC&physics CTD geochem DOMCharacterization DOMqualitysuchasPAD-HPLC,HighResolutionMass

Spec,NMR2 1 -

BulkBGC&physics CTD geochem TotalDissolvedNitrogen HighTemperatuturecombustionofTDN. 1 2 -BulkBGC&physics CTD geochem CarbonateSystem e.g.TCO2,pCO2,Talkalinity,pH 2 1 2BulkBGC&physics CTD geochem Tracemetals e.g.tracemetalcleanmethodsforNPPandforexampleFe

asitimpactsexportinNEPacific2 1 -

BulkBGC&physics CTD geochem particlecomposition POC,PONofparticlesfrombottles 1 1 -BulkBGC&physics CTD geochem particlecomposition biogeneicsilica 1 1 -BulkBGC&physics CTD geochem particlecomposition PIC(particulateinorganiccarbon) 1 1 -BulkBGC&physics CTD geochem particlecomposition LithogenicSi,Al 2 1 -BulkBGC&physics CTD geochem TransparentExopolymerParticles Microsopy,Spectroscopy 2 1 -

BulkBGC&physics towed/AUV

sensor Mesoscalecirculation Synoptic,repeatedsurveysofmesoscalefieldswithtowedprofilingvehicle.

1 - 1

BulkBGC&physics towed/AUV

sensor Submesocalesurveys Synoptic,repeatedsurveysofsubmesocalefieldswithtowedprofilingvehicle&AUVs

1 - 1

BulkBGC&physics satellite model AtmosphericForcing Satelliteremotesensingproducts.Windvelocity,surfaceheatflux

- - -

BulkBGC&physics sensor model Ship-basedAtmosphericForcing Windvelocity,short-&long-waveradiation,RH,airtemperture,seasurfacetemperature&salinity,barometricpressure,precipitation

1-UW 1 -

BulkBGC&physics satellite model Large-ScaleCirculation GeostrophicsurfacevelocityfromSSH(e.g.AVISO),stateestimates(e.g.ECCO)

- - -

BulkBGC&physics satellite model Mesoscalecirculation GeostrophicsurfacevelocityfromSSH(e.g.AVISO),stateestimates(e.g.ECCO).

- - -

BulkBGC&physics CTD/AUV sensor Mixing Microstructuremeasurements(temperatureandshearmicrostructure)

2 2 2

BulkBGC&physics satellite/AUV

sensor Mesoscalecirculation Mapsofmesoscalefieldsfromcombinedfloats,glidersandshipsADCP

1 - 1

BulkBGC&physics satellite/AUV

sensor Persistent,distributedmeasurements Persistent,broadlydistributedprofilesandsections. 1 - 1

1d2d

1d2d

SQsAddressed

1d2d

1d2d

1d2d

1d2d

1d2d

1d2d

1abd2abcd

1abd2abcd1abcd2abcd

1abc2abcd

1c2abcd

1d2d

1abd2abcd

1d2abcd1abd2abcd

1d2abcd1abcd2abcd

1ab2b

1abcd2abcd

1abcd2abc1abcd2abc

1abcd1abcd2abc1abd2abcd

Priority



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maybeimportanttoassessthespatialvariabilityofameasurementonabroader,quasi-synopticspatialscalebyconductingthemeasurementonthesurveyship.Table2illustratesonlyacondensedversionofthemeasurementsuiteneededtoanswertheEXPORTSScienceQuestions.ThecompletelistofmeasurementsconsiderednecessarytoaddresseachofthesubquestionsinfullarelistedintheCompleteMeasurementTableinthesupplementalmaterialssection7.2.AnaccompanyingMeasurementFootnoteDocumentalsoprovidesadditionaldetailsconcerningeachmeasuremententryinthecompletemeasurementtable.

4.0 ImplementingtheGoalPlanThegoalofEXPORTSistodevelopapredictiveunderstandingoftheexportandfateofglobaloceanprimaryproductionanditsimplicationsfortheEarth’scarboncyclethroughanintegratedprogramoffieldmeasurements,remotesensing,modelingandsynthesis.TheSDTdevisedaGoalPlanthat,initsopinion,willanswertheSciencesQuestionsposedintheEXPORTSSciencePlanandwillprovidetheanalyticaltoolsrequiredtounderstandNPPexportandfateinpresentandfutureclimatesusingsatelliteremotesensingandnumericalforecastmodels.Thus,theGoalPlanisusedasthestartingpointforcostingtheEXPORTSfieldprogramandforunderstandingtheimplicationsofdescopingproposedactivities.CostingtheGoalPlanrequiresestimatingthenumberofresearchprojectsandassociatedcosts,shiptime,projectcoordination,datamanagement,logisticsandNASA-heldcontingencyfunds.ThisplanisenvisionedtooccurintwoPhases.Phase1includesmultiplefieldcampaignsandsynthesisdesignedtoanswerSQ1andSQ2,withalaterstartforPhase2’scomprehensivesynthesisandmodelingactivitiestoaddressSQ3.TherationaleofsplittingEXPORTSintotwophasesallowssynthesisworkconductedinPhase1toinformPhase2synthesis.SyntheticdataproductswillbecreatedfrommeasurementsorprimarydataproductscollectedduringPhase1foruseinsynthesisandmodelinginbothPhases1and2(seeSection6.7oftheEXPORTSSciencePlan).ToanswerSQ3,anintegratedhierarchyofsynthesisandmodelingapproacheswillberequiredthatarecloselycoupledtotheanalysisandinterpretationofEXPORTSfielddata,remotesensing,andotherrelevantoceandatasets.Phase2effortswillencompassarangeofapproaches,includingcoupledEarthSystemmodels,toforecastbothpresent-dayconditionsandfutureresponsesofecosystemsandbiogeochemicalcyclesunderdifferentclimatescenarios.

DuringPhase1oftheGoalPlan,twooceanbasinswouldeachbesampledtwice,beginningintheNorthAtlanticwiththespringbloomandlatesummerin2018,followedbysamplingnearStationPAPAintheNorthPacificinspringandearlyautumn2020.ThissamplingstrategywouldallowEXPORTStoobserveawiderangeofECCstatesrequiredfortheconstructionofgloballyapplicablesatelliteandnumericalmodels.Thechoiceoflocationswouldenablethepossibilityofefficientpartnershipswithon-goingU.S.programs(suchastheOceanObservatoryInitiativenodeatStationP,O-SNAP,etc.)aswellason-goingandplannedinternationalresearchprograms(Section4.7).EachcomponentoftheGoalPlanfieldcampaignwouldincludetwoships,aProcessShipandaSurveyShip.TheProcessShipwouldoperateinasemi-LagrangianframeandaSurveyShipwouldsampleoverawiderangeofspatialscales.Observationswouldalsobemadefromanarrayofautonomous





http://oceanobservatories.org/array/global-station-papa/

http://o.snap.org

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platforms(glidersandmultipletypesoffloats)deployedinadvanceoftheProcessandSurveycruisesandextendingpasttheirend.Byoperatingoveranannualcycle,theautonomousassetswouldprovidepersistentobservationsandtemporalcontextfortheship-basedobservationsandenablegeochemicaldeterminationofannualratesofnetcommunityproductivity(NCP).Bysamplingatavarietyofspatialscalesforlongperiodsoftime,theywouldidentifyimportantscalesofvariabilitynecessaryforscalingupprocessstudiestoregionalandglobalscales.Sixdescopingoptionsarepresentedthatreduceoverallprojectcoststhroughacombinationofeffortreductions.Thedescopedoptionsarerankedqualitatively,baseduponthetradeoffsbetweenpredictionuncertainty(i.e.,numberofECCstatessampled)andmeasurementuncertainty(i.e.,resolutionofallexportpathways).Thereviewersprovidedmanyusefulspecificcommentsonthisissueandtheirguidancewasusedindraftingfinalrecommendations(seeDraftImplementationPlanComments;Section7.7).

EXPORTSaimstoleavealegacyforyearstocome.Thecomprehensivenatureofthedatasettobecollectedisunprecedented,withdeliberateoversamplingofparticulatematerialsandfilteredseawaterforgenomicandgeochemicalanalyses,microscalevideoimageryfromtheCTDandtowedplatformsurveys,trapsamples,insitucameras,zooplanktonnetsamples,etc.Akeytosuccessistherigorousadherencetomeasurementprotocolsonbothshipsandrigorouscrosscalibrationofsensorsonallshipsandautonomousplatforms.Thefieldmeasurementswillbeintegratedwithinsituopticsandoceancolorobservations,providinginvaluabledataforalgorithmdevelopmentforNASA’supcomingPlankton,Aerosol,CloudandoceanEcosystem(PACE)mission,andfortestingthehypothesisthatthefatesofglobalNPPareregulatedbythestateofthesurfaceoceanecosystem.

4.1 DeterminingGoalPlanProgramDurationandNumberofProjects

TheframingoftheEXPORTSScienceQuestionsandthefundingopportunitiespresentedthusfarsuggestthataphasedimplementationwouldbeanefficientwaytoconductEXPORTS.Thisphasinghasstartedalready.InAugust2016,NASAannouncedfundingofsixdataminingandobservationalsystemsimulationexperiment(OSSE)numericalmodelingproposalsinsupportofEXPORTSplanningandscience(https://nspires.nasaprs.com/external/viewrepositorydocument/cmdocumentid=536603/solicitationId=%7BEAB4311C-7130-7F75-BDC2-AB50BCC8A900%7D/viewSolicitationDocument=1/OBB15_WebPosting.pdf).TheDataMining/OSSEresearchwillcontributetotheplanningofthefinalEXPORTSfieldprogramandNASAfundinghasstartedalreadyfortheseparticipants(Figure2).Asintroducedabove,activitiesassociatedwithansweringtheScienceQuestions(Table1)canbephasedbecausetheanswerstoSQ1(Whatcontrolsthecarbonfluxexitingthe

IftheEXPORTSfieldcampaignistobeconducted,theresultingprogramwilllikelydiffersubstantiallyfromtheplanspresentedhereformanyreasons(cf.,availableresources,establishmentofpartnerships,outcomeofthepeerreviewprocess,integrationofnewideas,etc.).ThedetailedplanspresentedhereinwereassembledsothatrobustresourceestimatescouldbecreatedfortheGoalPlanandthevariousdescopingoptions.


https://nspires.nasaprs.com/external/viewrepositorydocument/cmdocumentid=536603/solicitationId=%7BEAB4311C-7130-7F75-BDC2-AB50BCC8A900%7D/viewSolicitationDocument=1/OBB15_Web Posting.pdf



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euphoticzone?)andSQ2(Whatisthefateofthatexportfluxinthetwilightzone?)areneededtoaddressSQ3(Howcantheknowledgegainedreduceuncertaintiesincontemporaryandfutureassessmentsoftheoceancarboncycle?).Fromanoperationalpointofview,answeringSQ1andSQ2requiresmanyofthesamemeasurements(Table2),makingitefficienttoaddressthemsimultaneously.

Figure2–TimelinebyquartersfortheGoalPlan.

TheseparationofEXPORTSintotwophasessuggeststhatastaggeredimplementationfortheGoalPlanispossible.ThefirstphaseanswersSQ1andSQ2usingtheEXPORTSfieldobservationalrecord.Weanticipatethistobeafive-yearprogram,whichwillenabledomain-specificmanuscriptstobepublishedandthesynthesisandmodelingrequiredtoanswerSQ1andSQ2tobecompleted.ThesecondphaseanswersSQ3andisthreeyearsinduration.Together,wearesuggestingthattheGoalPlanbeaseven-yearprogramstartingin2018withastaggeredimplementationofthetwophases(Figure2).ThelaunchreadinessdateforthePACEmissionis2022/23(pace.oceansciences.org).ThistimelinewillenableadvancedcarboncyclingsatellitealgorithmsdevelopedandtestedusingEXPORTSobservationstobeusedbyPACE.InordertoobtainatotalcostingfortheGoalPlan,thenumberofprojectsneededtoanswertheScienceQuestionsmustbeestimated.AprojectisdefinedhereasaPI-led,five-year(Phase1)orthree-year(Phase2)fundedeffortthatwillcontributedirectlytoansweringtheEXPORTSScienceQuestionsandtheEXPORTSmeasurementsuite.AprojectmaybeasingleinvestigatorprojectormadeupofseveralPIsworkingtogether.Phase2implementstheknowledgegainedinPhase1toreduceuncertaintiesinpredictiveandforecastingmodelsandsatellitealgorithms,aNASAagencygoal.Hence,thetwoPhasesareintricatelylinkedandshouldnotbeconsideredindependentactivities.ThenumberofPhase1projectsrequiredwasderivedfromtheCompleteMeasurementTable(seeSection7.2).Foreachofthefiveprogramelements,theSDTestimatedhowmanyfieldandmodelingprojectswererequiredforPhase1.Thisjudgmentwaslargelybaseduponthetypesofmeasurementsandtheuniqueexpertisethatwouldberequiredoneachship.Thisestimatewasonlyutilizedtoderivecostestimatesandwasnotaimedatprescribingthetypeornumberofprojectsthatwillcarryoutthemeasurements.Afewactivitiesweredeemedbestconductedbycompetedmeasurementteamswhodeliverdataproductsrapidlytotheprojects.SucheffortsincludethehydrographicCTD/rosettesampling,underwaysampling,preliminarydataprocessingandanalyticalwork(nutrients,chlorophyll,particulateorganiccarbon,etc.),deploymentandacquisitionofdatafromthetowedsledpackageonthesurveyship,andtheautonomousplatformoperations.Theexactnumberofprojectssupportedwouldbedeterminedbyproposalcompetitionandconsiderationofavailableresources.Twenty-threeprojectswereestimatedtobenecessarytoconductPhase1oftheGoalPlantocoverallprogramelements(Table3).ForthePhytoplankton&Microbesprogram

SDTDataMining/OSSE

ProjectOfficePhase1:SQ1&2

FieldOpsPhase2:SQ3

PACEOperations

2022 2023 20242016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021



http://pace.oceansciences.org/

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element,theSDTestimatedthatatotalof5projectswererequired,ofwhichoneisamodelingproject.Similarestimatesweremadefortheotherprogramelements,resultinginthenumberofprojectslistedinthethirdcolumnofTable3.ModelingprojectswereconsideredtobeimportantpartsofPhase1andthereforeincludedinthistotal.

Table3:EstimatedProgramElementsandNumberofProjects

TheSDTalsofeltstronglythat,inadditiontotheprojectsthatcontributetotheproposedEXPORTSmeasurementsuite,thereneededtoberesourcessetasideforhighlyinnovativeprojectsthathelpanswertheEXPORTSsciencequestionsbutwerenotoriginallyenvisionedexplicitlyaspartoftheEXPORTSmeasurementsuite.Atotalofthreeinnovationprojectsweresuggested.

4.2 GoalPlanShipOperations

Ship-basedsamplingintheEXPORTSSciencePlanincludestwomajorfielddeploymentsintwooceanbasinswiththeaimofobservingawiderangeofECCstates.TheGoalPlanshipoperationswillbeconductedinconcertwiththeautonomousplatformoperationsdescribedinthenextsection(Section4.3).EachcruisewillallowobservationofuptothreeECCstates,witheachtaking8daystoaccomplish.Budgetingfor1weatherdaybetweenECCoccupationsand1additionaldayforretrievingautonomousassets,eachcruisethusrequiresatotalof27on–stationdays(seedetailsintheNotionalCruisePlan;Section7.3).WhenconsideringthedurationofsamplinganECCstate,theSDTconsideredthetimeittakesforeventsinthesurfaceoceantoinfluenceparticlefieldsatdepthsof500mgiven

Elements DataProducts project# TypesofMeasurements

Phytoplankton&microbes biomass/commstructure 5 FCM,includingsorting;omics;Fv/Fm;virus

rates-intrinsic&Ctransforming

NCP,NPP,GPP,BP,dilutionexpts,nutrientexpts;DOMbioavailability;virallysis

Zooplankton biomass/commstructure 2.5 nets,incl.day/nigjt;bioaccoustics(inclfish)

rates-intrinsic&Ctransforming day/night;feeding/pelletexpts;dilutionexpts/metabolicrates

Export&aggregates Fluxandattenuationparticleabundance&size 5.5 traps(directandoptical),radionucludes,insitupumps,camerasforPSD

(CTD,AUVs)Ctransformationrates&processes aggreg/dissagexpts;in-situincubations/drifters;sinkrates

Optics Linkstoremotesensing 3 Opticalmeasurementstobuildopticalmodelstolinktosatellites

Cproxybuilding Opticalmeasurementstoleadtopoxiesofparticleproperties;LIDAR?

Hydrography-CTD 4 CTD/Rosette,O2,Flu,NO3,POM,DOM

Hydrography-towed CTD,O2,Flu,NO3optics

Siteplanning pre/during/postcruises;remotesensing,allvehicles/hydrography,POmodels,ADCPetc

AUVteam Pre/postdeploymentsandLagrangiansubEZfloat;alsensors&optics

Innovation Novelmethods,sensors,measurements,models 3 Novelapproachesusingmaterials/datacollectedoncruise

Phase1Total 23Alsoneedhydro/towyo/AUVopsteams

Phase2total 8 Assumes2projectsperSQ3subquestion

Bulkbiogeochemicalstocks&physics

http://cce.nasa.gov/obb/exports/documents/Notional_Cruise_Plan.xlsx

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particlesinkingratesof50-100m/d(5-10days),althoughthisisobviouslyanoversimplification.TheSDTalsoconsideredthestationtimeneededtomeasurealloftheexportpathwaysandthemultitudeofactivitiesthisrequires.Byconductingtwoseasonally-distinctcruisesineachoftwobasins,EXPORTSaimstofullyresolveupto12ECCstatesspanningalargedynamicrangeofconditions.Thisbreadth,alongwithrecentlyfundeddataminingefforts,increasesthelikelihoodthatthemodelscreatedwillberepresentativeforotherareasundersimilarregimes.TheGoalPlanrequirestwoshipstoefficientlyandeffectivelysamplethefullsuiteofmeasurementsnecessarytoresolvetheexportpathways.ThisrequirementisdueinparttothenumberofprojectssuggestedforPhase1oftheGoalPlan(Table3)andanestimateoftheresultingberthingneeds(seedetailsintheNotionalCruisePlan;Section7.3).Inaddition,thisrequirementreflectsthefactthatsomemeasurementsneedtobemadeinaLagrangianmode(ProcessShip),whileothersarebestcollectedinaspatially-distributedquasi-synopticfashion(SurveyShip).Themostefficientsamplingplanthusplacestheformergroupofmeasurementsonthewater-followingProcessShipandthelattergroupaboardtheSurveyShip.

Briefly,short-termdriftingarrays,sedimenttraps,mostnettows,andCTDcastsdeployedtocollectmaterialforshipboardexperimentationareassignedtotheProcessShip,aswellasmostincubation-basedbiologicalratedeterminations.Similarly,physicalandgeochemicalmeasurementsrequiringdistributedCTDsampling,large-volumeinsitupumping,andtowedprofilersurveysareassignedtotheSurveyShip.Forexample,thiswouldincludemeasurementsrequiredtoassessdownwardmixingofdissolvedorganicmatter(DOM).SpecificshipprioritiesforallmeasurementsarenotedinTable2andindetailintheCompleteMeasurementTable(Section7.2).Measurementsnotclearlybelongingtooneofthesecategorieswereassignedtoeitherorbothshipsafterassessinginterdependenciesamongthedifferentmeasurements.Forinstance,mostopticalandimagingsensor-basedmeasurementsareincludedonbothshipsinordertolinktheLagrangian-modeobservationsoftheProcessShiptothelarger,spatialcontextdeterminedbytheSurveyShip.AdescriptionoftheplatformrequirementsandsamplingforthegoalplanisprovidedinthePlatformRequirementsdocumentinSection7.4.

SamplingneedswerepartitionedbetweenthetwoshipstoassessallexportpathwaysduringeachdistinctECCstateassessmentinasshortoftimeperiodaspossible.IneachECCstateassessment,theSurveyShipwillconductamesoscaleCTDsurvey,towedprofilersurveysatbothmeso-andsubmeso-scales,andlargevolumeparticlepumpdeploymentsat3-dayintervals.Wedefineamesoscalesurveyasachieving5km(CTD)resolutionacrossa50x50kmbox,whileasubmesoscalesurveywillachievehigherresolutionacrossasmallertargetarea(seePlatformRequirementsforfurtherdetailsontheplannedsamplingandplatformsconsidered).ThesurveyshipwillalsobetheplatformtodeployanupperoceanprofilingLIDARandabove-waterreflectancesystemstolinktonext-generationsatellitedeterminations.

OntheProcessShip,eachstatewillalsorequireonesetofapproximatelyfive-daysedimenttrapdeployments,twoconsecutivedriftingexperimentalarraydeployments,twopairsofday/nightMOCNESSdeploymentsseparatedby4-5days,dailyverticalnettows,andCTDcasts4timesperday.AdetaileddepictionofthetimingdetailsforthecruisesamplingisgivenintheNotionalCruisePlan(Section7.3).TheplanalsoincludestimefortheProcess



http://cce.nasa.gov/obb/exports/documents/Platform_Requirements.pdf


http://cce.nasa.gov/obb/exports/documents/NotionalCruisePlan_20160707.xlsx


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Ship’ssewagedisposalawayfromthetargetwaterparcel.Tallyingthetimeandberthsnecessarytomakeallmeasurements,oneglobal-classProcessShip(35berths)andoneocean-classSurveyShip(25berths)willtogetherbeabletocompletetheassessmentofone“state”ofthebiologicalpumpin8days.Allocatingtwoweatherdayspercruise,oneadditionaldayforrecoveringautonomousassets,andassumingactualoperationsachievetheefficiencydetailedhere,theGoalPlanthusachievesobservationsof3ECCstatesduring27shipdaysonsite.Inadditiontotimeonsite,steamingtimeforeachcruiseneedstobeconsidered.FortheAtlanticcruises,steamingtimesarebasedonthedistancefromWoodsHole,MAtoPorcupineAbyssalPlain(PAP).FortheN.Pacificcruises,thecalculatedtimesarebasedonthedistancefromSeattletoStationP(detailsareinNotionalCruisePlan).TheexactlocationswheretheEXPORTSfieldcampaignwillbeconductedwillbedecidedaftertheprogramisinitiatedanddependsonmanyfactors(availableresources,shipschedules,partnerships,thepeerreviewprocess,etc.).

Inordertoachieveefficientoperationsandoptimally-coordinatedsamplingacrosstheprogramelements,theEXPORTSimplementationplanrecommendsthatsamplingfromtheCTD,towedprofilersurvey,ship’sunderwaysensorsystem,andautonomousunderwatervehiclebecarriedoutbyProjectOffice-directedoperationalteamsthatarefullycompeted.Theseship-andshore-basedteamswillcoordinatedeploymentsandpilotingwiththemanagementteamandwithappropriateprojectPIs.DatageneratedbytheCTD,Underway,TowedProfilersurvey,andAutonomousPlatformOperationsteamswillbemadeavailableimmediatelyforuseinPI-ledprojectsviatheProjectOffices’datamanagementoffice.

Detailedwatersamplingrequirementsfornutrients,pigments,andotherstandardanalytesaredescribedinthePlatformRequirementsdocumentinthesubsection“Watersamplingandminimumanalysisset”(Section7.4).Manyoftheseanalyseswillnotbemadeatseaandsamplecollectionscanbeconductedusingstandardproceduresbyatechnicallaboratoryonshore.Thesesamplingeffortswillalsoincludedeliberateovercollectionforanalytes,suchasfilteredseawaterandsuspendedandsinkingparticlesamples,forgenomic,proteonomic,geochemicalandisotopicanalyses.Thisdeliberateoversamplingisrelativelyinexpensiveandhasthepotentialforbigsciencereturns.

EXPORTSwillalsoincludeanetworkofcross-calibratedbiological,chemical,andopticalsensorsdeployedacrossmultipleplatforms(shipunderway,CTD,glider,float,andtowedprofiler).RequirementsforthesesensorsarealsogiveninthePlatformRequirementsdocument(Section7.4).AswithwatersamplescollectedbytheCTDgroup,theplanincludesover-collectionofimaging,optical,andradiometricdataforfuturereinterpretationandmodeldevelopment.Inordertoderivemaximumvaluefromthesesensor-basedmeasurements,itisimportantthatallsensorsbecross-calibratedfrequentlybefore,during,andafterdeployments.TheSDTsuggeststhatdedicatedpersonnelbeassignedtocoordinateintercalibrationacrossplatformsandmanagethedataprocessingstreamsfromthesesensors.

4.3 GoalPlanAutonomousPlatformOperations

InreviewingtheEXPORTSSciencePlan,theSDTconcludedthatautonomousplatformplanswerenotsufficientlydetailedintheSciencePlantoelucidatethespatialsamplingschemacriticalforidentifyingimportantscalesofvariabilityandrationallydeterminethe





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resourcesrequired.Hence,theSDTdevelopedaGoalPlanautonomousplatformoperationsplantocomplimentthedetailedshipboardsamplingplanspresentedhereandintheSciencePlan.TheautonomousplatformoperationsplanhelpsclarifyhowsustainedautonomoussamplingwillhelpaddresstheEXPORTSScienceQuestionsanddetailsmanyoftheconsiderationsthatmustbefurtherrefinediftheEXPORTSGoalPlanistooccur.

RolesofAutonomousPlatformsinEXPORTS-Long-enduranceautonomousplatformsfulfillcriticalsamplingneeds,complementingandaugmentingtheintensiveship-basedmeasurementprogrambyproviding:• Persistence:Maintainafullyearofsamplingineachbasin,beginningbeforethefirst

processcruiseandextendingpastthefinalcruisetoprovidetemporalcontextfortheintensivesamplingperiodsandadditional,albeitpartial,characterizationsofECCstatesattimesnotsampledbythecruises.

• SpatialContext:Distributedprofilescollectedbyfloatsandlonger(100’skm)repeatedsectionsoccupiedbygliderscharacterizevariabilityatarangeofspatialscalesnotresolvedbyship-basedsampling.Thesemeasurementswillidentifytheimportantscalesofvariabilityandprovideinformationonthespatialdistributionofprocessesresolvedindetailbyship-basedsampling.Autonomousplatformsprovidemeasurementsoverabroadtemporalandspatialscopethatwillinformtheupscalingofprocessinvestigationsneededtounderstandbasin-scaleimpacts.

• Targeting:Autonomousplatformsreturnmostoftheirmeasurementsinnearrealtime.Usedinconjunctionwithsatelliteremotesensing,theseobservationswillinformsiteselectionforintensive,ship-basedeffortsandassistwithday-to-daytargetingofship-basedsampling.Guidingshipsdirectlytofeaturesofinterestincreasesefficiencyandreducesriskassociatedwiththeadaptiveapproachemployedbythisplan.

• DriftingReferenceFrame:ALagrangianfloatdefinesaparcel-followingreferenceframeforship-basedsampling.Thiseasesinterpretationbyminimizingtheimpactofadvection,allowingobservedchangestobemorereadilyinterpretedastheresultofbiologicalandbiogeochemicalprocesses.

• AdaptiveSampling:Remotelycommandedautonomousplatformsprovideflexiblesamplingthatcanbereadilyreconfiguredtomeetarangeofneeds,includingopportunisticsamplingofinterestingeventsandoptimizationofcoverageinresponsetofailureofsomeelementsoftheobservingarray.

• Large-ScaleBiogeochemicalConstraints:Theautonomousplatformarraywillenablethecalculationofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)frombiomass-lightmodelsandnetcommunityproduction(NCP)viamassbudgetingofthebiogeochemicalstockmeasurementsonweeklytoannualtimescales.TheresultingintegratedmeasuresofNPPfatewillbeveryusefulforcomparingwiththeship-basedobservationsofNPPfatepathways.

TheAutonomousArray-EXPORTSautonomousplatformsoperateinanestedsystem(Figure3),withapersistentLagrangianarrayresolvingkilometer-scalevariabilitywhiledriftingthroughadistributedarrayofBio-ArgoandParticleFluxfloatsdesignedtocharacterizescalesofhundredsofkilometers.Long,repeatsectionsoccupiedbyglidersprovidepersistentsamplingthatbridgesthetwoscalesandofferscross-calibration

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opportunities.ParticleSizeDistribution(PSD)Floatswillbedeployedforshortperiodsduringtheprocesscruises.DriftingFloatArray:AdistributedarrayofBio-ArgofloatsandParticleFluxfloats(seePlatformRequirements,Section7.4)willbedeployedwith200-300kmseparation(selectedsothateachfloatrepresentsanindependentrealization).Thearraywillbedeployedatleastonemonthpriortothefirstintensivesamplingperiodandmaintainedateightfloats(6Bio-Argoand2ParticleFlux)forthedurationoftheintensivesamplingperiod.Theeight-floatarrayprovidesdistributedcoverageoveraroughly600kmby600kmregion(Figure3).Thisrepresentsacompromisedesignedtocaptureabroadrangeofoceanographicconditionsacrossanoperationallyusefulspan(roughlytwodaysforshipstotraverse)withaminimalnumberoffloats.Bio-Argofloatswillprofilefromthesurfaceto2000mdepthatatimescaleof1-20days,adjustedasneededtoresolvetargetprocesses.Together,thesefloatswilldocumenttheevolutionofupperoceanstratification,establishatime-historyofwaterpropertiesandNCPonregionalscales,andprovideobservationsforassessingtherepresentativenessoftheprocessobservations.Thefloatswouldalsoprovidealternativetargetswithknownhistoriesforship-basedsampling,shouldtheLagrangianarray(below)proveunsuitable.

Figure 3:AutonomousplatformssamplingschematicfortheGoalPlan.Broad-scaleGliderRepeatSections:Twolong-endurancegliders(PlatformRequirements)willconductlong(300-400km)repeatedsectionsacrossthetargetdomain,beginningpriortothefirstintensivesamplingperiodandextendingforayear.Glidersprofilefromthesurfaceto1000-mdeptheverysixhoursatroughly3kmseparationbetweendives.Theresultingtimeseriesofsectionswillcharacterizespatialvariabilityacrossabroadregionandrangeofscalessurroundingtheprocessstudysites,providingcontextfortheintensivemeasurements,assistingininterpretingtheprofilesfromthedriftingfloat

arrayandinformingupscalingofprocess-levelunderstandingtolargerscales.

PersistentLagrangianArray:AsystemcomposedofadriftingLagrangianfloatandtwolong-endurancegliders(PlatformRequirements)willprovidepersistentsamplingofsmall-scaleO(1km)variabilityinaparcel-followingreferenceframe.Thefloatquantifiestemporalevolutioninthedrifting(parcel-following)frame,whilegliderscharacterizespatialvariabilityintheregion(kilometers)surroundingthefloat.Small-scale,processmeasurementscollectedbytheLagrangianarraywillcapturepartialrealizationsofadditionalstates,helpingtoassesstherepresentativenessofship-basedobservationsandextendingtherecordofNCPandexportfluxes.Duringtheperiodsofship-basedsampling,theLagrangianarraywillprovidetargetinginformationandadriftingreferenceframearoundwhichsamplingstrategiescanbeoptimized.




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CalibrationandProxyBuilding-Quantitativeinterpretationofautonomousbiologicalandbiogeochemicalsensorarraysrequiresrigorousattentiontocalibration/cross-calibrationandcarefulconstructionofproxiesthatconvertobservablestoestimatesofrelevantbiogeochemicalparameters(e.g.fluorescencetochlorophyllconcentration,opticalbackscatterandbeamtransmissiontoparticulateorganiccarbon).EXPORTScalibrationandproxyprotocolsshouldinclude:• Laboratorycalibrationtocommonstandardspriortodeploymentand(when

appropriate)followingrecovery.• Deploymentcalibrationagainstcollocatedcastsusingreferencesensorsand/or

analysesofsamples.• Calibrationduringintensiveship-basedsamplingagainstdedicated,collocatedcasts

usingCTD-basedreferencesensorsonbothshipsand/oranalysesofsamples.• Cross-calibrationbetweenautonomoussensorsthroughbothplanned(e.g.,gliders

directedtovisitfloats)andchanceencountersbetweenEXPORTSplatforms,andwithinstrumentsoperatedbyotherprograms.

• Developmentandrefinementofproxiesatdeployment,duringintensivefieldperiods,andthoughcollaborationwithotherprogramsworkingintheregion.

• Protocolsfortransparent,documentedpathwaysfromrawsensoroutputtofinaldataproduct.

OperationalApproach-AutonomousplatformswillmaintainapersistentpresencethroughouttheEXPORTSfieldyearineachbasin(Figure4).ThefieldprogramforeachbasinbeginswithacruisededicatedtodeployingthedistributedBio-ArgoandParticleFluxfloatarray,deploymentoftheglidersontotheirbroad-scalerepeatsections,anddeploymentofthedriftingLagrangiansystem(seebelow).Floatdeploymentsiteswillbeselectedtocoverthetargetregionwhilemaintainingthe200-300kmseparation.Glidersectionswillbeconfiguredtotraversethetargetregionandthusthecloudoffloats.HistoricaldataandObservingSystemSimulationExperiments(OSSEs)willguideselectionoftheLagrangianarraydeploymentsitetomaximizeresidencetimeinthetargetregion.

Analysesofobservationscollectedbytheautonomousarraywillguidetargetingofthetwointensiveship-basedsamplingperiods.GlidersfrombothLagrangianArrayandBroad-scaleRepeatSectionscouldbecommandedtoconvergeattheselectedsitetoaugmentship-basedsamplingduringcruisesandtofacilitateefficientrecovery.Duringthefirstship-basedsamplingperiods,theSurveyShipwillreseedasmallnumberoffloatsintothedistributedarraytofillspatialgapsandwilldeployfourfreshgliders,thePSDfloatsandtheLagrangianfloat.LongerPSDfloatmissionsaredesirablebutwilllikelyrequiredevelopmentofonboardimageprocessing.Ship-basedprocessworkcanchoosebetweentheoldandnewLagrangianfloatswhenseekingadriftingreferenceframe,andwillbenefitfromthesurveycapabilityofthecombinedfleetofeightglidersthatresultsfromdeployingnewglidersatthebeginningandrecoveringoldglidersattheendofthecruise.Ship-basedsamplingincludesdedicatedtimeforcalibrationandproxybuildingforautonomoussensors.Attheendoftheintensivesamplingperiod,theshipswillrecoverthefouroldglidersand,timepermitting,theoldLagrangianfloat.Bio-ArgoandFluxfloatsremaintosampleuntiltheirbatteriesareexpended.PSDfloatsgeneratingdatavolumestoolargetotransmitwilloperateforshort(days)deploymentstoprovideinformationonsuspended

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andsinkingparticlesandforinterpretingsedimenttrapobservations,asacomponentoftheship-basedobservingeffort.

Figure 4:Timingchartforautonomousplatformdeployments,recoveriesandoperations.

Thesecondintensivecruisealsofollowsthesequenceoutlinedabove,withthefullBio-Argo/FluxFloatarray,fourglidersandaLagrangianfloatleftbehindtosampleforthebalanceoftheyear.Bio-Argoandfluxfloatsarenotmeanttoberecoveredandshipcostconsiderationsmakeitimpracticaltodevoteashiptomid-basinretrievalofglidersandLagrangianfloatsattheendofthefieldprogram.Instead,gliderswillbenavigatedtothenearestaccessiblecoastalregion,wheresurvivingvehicleswillberecoveredusingsmall,coastalresearchshipsorchartedvessels.Autonomousplatformsthattransmittheirdatabacktoshoreshouldbeconsideredquasi-expendable.DecisionstorecoverautonomousassetsduringallphasesoftheEXPORTSmeasurementprogrammustweighresourceandopportunitycostsagainstthevalueoftheassetsinquestion(includingtheneedtoreuseassetsforadditionalEXPORTSdeployments).LogisticsNeeds-InitialdeploymentofautonomousplatformsintheNorthAtlanticwillrequire18days(5daysonsitefordeploymentsplus13daysoftransit),ideallyfromanOceanClassvessel.OperationsintheNorthPacificwillrequire13days(5daysonsitefordeploymentsplus8daysoftransit),alsofromanOceanClassvessel.ShiptimefordeploymentandrecoveryoffloatsandglidersisbuiltintotheNotionalCruisePlan.

OperationsandSituationalAwareness-Autonomousplatformswillrequirecontinualmonitoringandcontrolthroughouttheirmissions.Forexample,floatprofilingfrequencywillbeadjustedasdictatedbyscienceneeds,glidersmustbegivenwaypointsandoperatingparameters,calibrationopportunitiesmustbeidentifiedandexploited,andallplatformsmonitoredforsystemhealth.Thiswillinvolvecloseinternal(betweenfloatsandgliders)andexternal(withshipboardactivities)coordination.Thesefunctionswillbetheresponsibilityofthescientiststhatcompetesuccessfullyforthesetasks.



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Morebroadly,programmaticdecisionsaboutwhatandhowtosamplemustbemadebytheentireEXPORTSteam.TheEXPORTSautonomousplatformsgroupwillleaddevelopmentofasituationalawarenesssystemtoprovidebasicanalysesandproductsaimedatinformingthedecisionmakingprocess.Thisnear-real-timeinformationfeedwillsupportawiderangeofoperations,fromgliderpilotingandselectionoffeaturesforfocusedsampling,totheoverarchingchoiceoftargetregionforeachintensivefieldperiod.TheEXPORTSmeasurementprogramreliesonadaptivesamplingtocapturedistinctfeaturesandECCstates,makingitimperativethatallsourcesofrealtimeinformationbecapturedandusedtoguideoperations.

OperationsTeam-TheEXPORTSautonomousplatformsgroupwillcompriseallprojectsthatcompetesuccessfullytoconductautonomousobservations.Theirday-to-dayoperationswilldependonthenatureofthesuccessfulproposals.Duetotheneedforhighlycoordinatedoperations,theSDTrecommendsthatEXPORTSincludealeadinvestigatorforautonomousoperations.Thisindividual’sresponsibilitieswouldincludecoordinatingthediverseautonomouscomponents,representingtheautonomousplatformsgroupontheEXPORTSProjectLeadershipTeam(seeSection4.6),andplanningofassetdeployment,targetingandrecovery.Similarly,thecriticalimportanceofsensorcalibrationandproxybuildingmotivatestheassignmentofinvestigatorstocoordinatecalibrationofsensorsacrossallplatforms(autonomousandship-based)andtoleadtheprocessinganddeliveryofdata.ThesesensorleadswouldlikelybedrawnfromthepoolofEXPORTSinvestigators,identifyingindividualswithappropriatedomainknowledgeandaparticularinterestintheresultingdatastream.

4.4 AssemblingEXPORTSsynthesisdataproducts

EXPORTSwillneedtoassemblemeasurementsor“primarydataproducts”fromindividualPhase1projectsinto“synthesisdataproducts”thatcanbeusedforansweringSQ1andSQ2inPhase1oftheGoalPlan,answeringSQ3inPhase2(Section4.5)andforusersbeyondtheEXPORTSprogram.ThesynthesisproductsfromEXPORTSPhase1cruises,remotesensingandautonomoussamplingwillbeamajorlegacyoftheprogram,servingasagoldmineforfutureoceanmechanisticandmodelingstudies.ThespecificformandorganizationoftheEXPORTSsynthesisdataproductsshouldbedeterminedbythePhase1projectsinconjunctionwiththeEXPORTSProjectOffice’sdatamanagementgroup.SynthesisdataproductsshouldcharacterizetheobservedplanktonecosystemandcarboncyclingindifferentstatesandquantifythefiveEXPORTSpathwaysinFigure1.Table3intheEXPORTSSciencePlanlistsoneapproachandexampleofaggregateddataproductsorganizedaroundprocesses,stocks,fluxes,anddatatypes(e.g.,productivity,export,particlesizespectra,meso-andsub-mesoscalemapping,etc.).Thesedataproductsmaycomefromasingleprojectteam,butmorelikelywillneedtobecreatedusingdatacollectedfromseveralprojectsorProgramElements(Table3).Dataproductsmightbeconstructedfromacombinationofautonomous,remotesensing,andinsitudatasets.TheplannedEXPORTSfieldcampaignswillbesupplementedbydataminingactivitiesduringapreparatoryphasethatwillprovideadditionalupperoceanecosystem/carboncycling(ECC)states.ThesedataalsoneedtobeorganizedintodataproductsthatarerequiredtoanswertheEXPORTSScienceQuestions.


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AnotherwaythattheEXPORTSdatasetscouldbeorganizedtoencouragesynthesiswouldbeintheformof“wiringdiagrams”foreachECCstate.TheEXPORTSwiringdiagramillustratestheflowsandfatesofNPPenergythroughtheupperoceanfoodwebandisshowninFigure3oftheEXPORTSSciencePlan.ForeachECCstateobserved,meanestimatesofthecarbonpoolsshowninthewiringdiagram,aswellasthefluxesamongthepools,wouldbecollatedalongwithappropriateuncertaintyestimates.Thisaccountingcouldalsobedonewiththedataminedobservations.ThiscollationoftheEXPORTSdataintowiringdiagramsshouldencouragecross-ECCstatesyntheses.

TheEXPORTSPhase1synthesisdataproductswillbecompiledtowardstheendofPhase1and,asdescribedinSection4.6,thedataproductswillbepublishedandmadepublicallyavailabletoallusersthroughtheEXPORTSProjectOfficeincoordinationwithotheroceanographicdatarepositories(SeaBASS,BCO-DMO,PANGEA,etc.).Thesynthesisproductsareinadditiontotheprimarymeasurementproducts,whichwillbesubmittedtodatabasesearlier,inconformitywithNASAdatarequirements.

4.5 Phase2–AddressingEXPORTSSub-Question3

WhileamajorcomponentoftheEXPORTSprogramwillinvolvefieldcampaignstocharacterizedifferentECCstates,thelastingimpactoftheprojectdependscriticallyonhowtheseobservationsaretranslatedintobetterlarger-scaleconstraintsanduncertaintyestimatesforexportanditssubsequentfatefromremotesensing,in-situobservations,andnumericalmodels.EXPORTSSQ3buildsontheresultsfrombothSQ1andSQ2(Figure1)andisdividedintofoursub-questions(Table1).TheexpectedSQ3outcomesincludesynthesisproductsoncarbonflowsandmechanisms,diagnosticandprognosticstateestimatesofoceanexportandcarbonflowsatbroaderspatialandtemporalscales,identificationofadditionalmeasurementneeds,andbetterinformedandtestedmodelsofvaryingcomplexitythathopefullyimproveprojectionsoftheforcedEarthSystemresponse.SQ3A-Cspecificallyaddressesestimatesforcontemporarybiogeochemicalprocessingintheeuphoticzoneandthemesopelagic,whileSQ3Daddressesprojectionsoftheoceanbiologicalpumpunderpotentialfutureclimates(Table1).AddressingSQ3requiresanintegratedhierarchyofsynthesisandmodelingapproachesthatarecloselylinkedwithanalysisandinterpretationofEXPORTSfielddata,associatedremotesensingdata,andothersimilaroceandatasets,includingtheassemblyofEXPORTSdataproductsandwiringdiagrams(Section4.4).SQ3-relatedeffortsshouldencompass(1)arangeofnumericalmodelinganddatasynthesisapproaches,(2)statisticalanddiagnosticanalysisofin-situandremotesensingdata,(3)zeroand1-dimensionalprocess-basedrepresentationofcarbonflowsintheupperocean,(4)stateestimationandoceanobservingsystemexperiments(OSSEs)thatcanresolvethesubmesoscaletomesoscaleregime,and(5)3-Dprognosticregionalandglobal-scaleoceanbiogeochemicalmodelsandcoupledEarthSystemmodelsthatseektoforecastpresent-dayconditionsandfutureresponsesunderdifferentclimatescenarios.TheSDTrecommendsthatthemajorityofSQ3relatedeffortsbeimplementedduringPhase2oftheprojectinordertotakefulladvantageoftheobservationscollectedforSQ1andSQ2inPhase1.However,someprojectstoaddressSQ3arerecommendedtooccurearlier,eitherbeforeorduringthefieldworkinPhase1.Forexample,thepreparatoryphasebeforeEXPORTS(Fall2016-2018;Figure2)willsupportworkondataminingofECC


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statesthatwillcontributeadditionalEXPORTS-relateddataproductsaswellasOSSEsthatcouldbeusedtoguideEXPORTSmechanisticandmesoscaleandsubmesoscalesamplingstrategies.Phase1isenvisionedintheGoalPlantoincludenow-castmodelinginsupportoftheship,satelliteandautonomousplatformobservations.Thus,synthesiswilloccurthroughouttheEXPORTSGoalPlanprogram,notjustduringPhase2.

IntheproposedEXPORTStimeline(Figure2),Phase2occursduring2022-2024andthus,importantlyoverlapswithfinalyearofPhase1andassemblyofdataproductstofacilitateinformationexchangebetweenthePhase1fieldandremotesensingprojectsandthePhase2synthesisandmodelingprojects.Forcostingpurposes,8projectssupportedinPhase2fortheGoalPlanwereestimated,with2projectsperSQ3subquestion(Table3).TheexpectedPhase2outcomeswilllikelyincludeadditionalsynthesisdataproductsandmodelproducts(e.g.,codeandmodeloutput).SimilartothedataproductsfromPhase1,thePhase2synthesisandmodelproductswillbemadepublicallyavailablethroughEXPORTSdataarchiveincoordinationwiththeEXPORTSProjectOfficeandwithotherdatarepositories(SeaBASS,BCO-DMO,PANGEA,etc.;seeSection4.6).

Figure5–AgenerictimelineforconductingresearchactivitiesinsupportoftheEXPORTSGoalPlan.Althoughthisispresentedasagenerictimeline,atthetimeofcompletionofthisdocumentY1correspondsto2017,Basin1istheAtlanticandBasin2isthePacific.

4.6 ProjectIntegrationandManagement

ThemanyresearchactivitiesthatneedtobeintegratediftheEXPORTSGoalPlanistobesuccessfulareillustratedinFigure5.Here,EXPORTSresearchactivitiesarepartitionedintoFieldwork&DataMining,RemoteSensing,Modeling,andSynthesisandplacedalongagenerictimelinesoprojectinterdependenciescanbevisualizedandtheneedsofprojectintegrationassessed.TherearefourperiodstotheGoalPlangenerictimeline:Planning,Basin1(nowAtlantic),Basin2(Pacific),andAnalysis&Synthesis.Figure5illustrateshow

Fieldwork&DataMiningDatamining(2016)GoalPlanfieldprogram(4.2)PersistentAUVsampling(4.3)Fielddata/sampleprocessing

RemoteSensingSatellitedatacollectionAlgorithmdevelopment

Modeling-diagnosis&predictionOSSEdevelopment(2016)RealtimemodelstoguidefieldworkProcessmodelingEarthsystemmodeling

SynthesisIntegratedata/createdataproducts(4.4)OutcomesforSQ1&SQ2OutputforSQ3

Lessintensive

Analysis&Synthesis

Activitylevels Intensive

EXPORTSResearchAcitivities Planning Basin1 Basin2Y7 Y8Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6

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datafromthefieldprogramanddataminingfeedintotheModeling,RemoteSensing,andSynthesisactivities.ItalsovisualizesthetimerequiredtoprocessfielddataandsamplesandhowdatapreparationactivitiesneedtoleadtheModelingandSynthesisactivities.

ThecomplexityoftheEXPORTSGoalPlan(Figure5)necessitatesseriousconsiderationofprojectmanagementandgovernance.TheEXPORTSSDTrecognizesthatthereareamultitudeoffactorsthatwilldeterminetheeffectivegovernancestructureforEXPORTS.Here,weoutlinevariousgovernanceelementsviewedbytheSDTasimportantforeffectiveexecutionoftheProject.ManyoftheseideasarebasedupontheSDT’sexperiencesinlarge-scale,multi-PIresearchprojectsliketheU.S.JGOFS,GEOTRACES,CLIVAR/RepeatHydrography,NAAMES,andTaraOcean.ItisrecommendedthatgovernanceofEXPORTSentailclosecoordinationbetweenagencyProgramManagersandaProjectLeadershipTeam(PLT).ItisenvisionedthatthePLTconsistsof(1)aLeadScientistandaDeputyLeadScientist,(2)aScienceSteeringCommittee,and(3)anEXPORTSProjectOffice.IncollaborationwiththeagencyProgramManager(s),thePLTwillberesponsibleforoversightandcoordinationoffieldcampaigns,oversightofdatamanagement,andorganizationofoutreachactivities.Toensureprogramvitalitywhilemaximizingstability,itisrecommendedthattheLeadScientistandScienceSteeringCommitteepositionsberotatedatstrategicintervalsthroughouttheprogram.LeadandDeputyLeadScientistsandScienceSteeringCommittee–Ifthe7-yearEXPORTSGoalPlanprogramwereimplemented,itwouldbeprudenttoplanleadershiprotation.OnesolutionthatretainsconsistencywouldbefortheLeadScientisttoremaininofficeduringPhase1oftheGoalPlan(years1-5)andthentheDeputyLeadScientistassumingLeadresponsibilitiesduringPhase2(years6&7).AnewDeputymaybeappointedatthistime.TheProjectLeadershipTeam(PLT)shouldconsistoftheLeadScientist,theDeputyLeadScientistandaScienceSteeringCommittee.TheassembledPLTshouldbecomposedofnomorethan7membersrepresentingeachoftheprimaryresearchareasoftheEXPORTSProject,includingremotesensing,optics,modeling,autonomoussampling,biogeochemistry,export,food-webinteractions,particledynamics,andphysicaloceanography.TheScienceSteeringCommitteewillworkdirectlywiththeLeadScientistandDeputytoadviseProjectOfficeactivities,orchestratethestagingofallfieldactivities,andfacilitateandmonitorpartnershipsandcollaborations.DecisionswillbemadeinconjunctionwiththePIsandfundingagencyrepresentativesfollowingaconsensusprocess.TurnoverwithintheScienceSteeringCommitteemaybestaggeredfollowingthephasesoftheproject(e.g.,membersrotateafterBasin1&2investigations).

EXPORTSProjectOffice-ThepurposeoftheProjectOfficeisto(1)providecruiseplanningandlogisticalsupportforcruisesanddeployments,(2)enhancecommunicationamonginvestigatorsandinternationalpartners,(3)directthehydrographic,underway,towedbodyprofiler,andautonomousplatformoperationteamsduringcruises,(4)overseedatasubmissionbyPIstocentraldataarchives,(5)constructanddisseminatesynthesizeddataproducts(seebelow),(6)overseeandcoordinatearchivedandvoucheredsamplematerials,and(7)organizepublic,community,andagencyoutreachactivities,includingEXPORTS’onlinepresence.EssentialtothesuccessofEXPORTS,theseProjectOfficeactivitieswillincludeorganizationofpre-cruiseplanningmeetings,postcruisedata-interpretationandsynthesismeetingsandfacilitationofcommunicationsamongEXPORTSscientistsandexternalcollaborators(nationalorinternational).TheProjectOffice,as

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advisedbythePLT,willalsodirectthesamplingconductedbythecompetedhydrographic,towedprofiler,andautonomousplatformoperationteams.TheProjectOfficewillberesponsibleforconducting‘AllHands’annualPImeetings.Smallgroupdataandsynthesismeetingswillalsobeneeded.Face-to-facemeetingsareessentialtoensurethatthesyntheticactivitiesrequiredtoanswerthesciencequestionsareconducted.Manycommunitycommenters,especiallyearlycareerreviewers,notedtheimportanceofface-to-facemeetingsindevelopingresearchcapacityandsettingone’scareertrajectory(seeDraftImplementationPlanComments).TheProjectOfficewillalsoberesponsibleforcommunicatingdatasubmissionrequirementsandtimelinestothePIsandcoordinatingdatasubmissionswiththeEXPORTSdatamanagementgroupandsamplearchives.ItisexpectedthatagencyProgramManagerswilldirectdatasubmissiontotheirestablishedpermanentarchives(e.g.,SeaBASSforNASAandBCO-DMOforNSF).IfmultiplearchivesemergeasEXPORTSrepositories,theProjectOfficewillensureconsolidationandsynergiesofefforts,suchasdirectlinkstodataviatheEXPORTSWebsite.TheProjectOfficewillalsoberesponsibleforcommunicatingEXPORTSactivitiesandfindingstothepublicandpolicystakeholders,whichwillinvolveroutinecommunicationwithagencyOfficesofCommunication.ProjectOfficeeducationandoutreachactivitieswillspanfromtrainingprogramsforyoungscientistsandK-12curriculadevelopmenttocommunicatingEXPORTSconceptstothepublicandgovernmentofficials.

DataSynthesis,Management,andArchiving-SciencedatacreatedthroughtheEXPORTSProjectwillinclude‘primaryproducts’,‘synthesizeddataproducts’,and‘modelproducts’.Primaryproductsencompassalldirectfieldmeasurementdata.Asnotedabove,theProjectOfficewillprovideguidancetoEXPORTSPIsondatasubmissionrequirementsandtimelines.AllprimaryproductsubmissionswillfollowtheNASAEarthScienceDataandInformationPolicy(http://science.nasa.gov/earth-science/earth-science-data/data-information-policy/)andwillrequireallPIstosubmitallthedatatheyhavebeenfundedtocollectintodesignatedpublicdatarepositories(followingqualitycontrol)nolaterthanoneyearfollowingcollection.TheProjectwebsitewillprovideupdatedlinkstoallthedatarepositorieswheredatahavebeensubmitted(SeaBASS,BCO-DMO,PANGAEA,etc.).Furthermore,allEXPORTSdatawillbearchivedwithinNASA’sSeaBASS.

Synthesizeddataproductsarecreatedthroughtheintegrationofprimaryproductsandincludepropertiessuchasexportflux,productivity,planktoncommunitystructure,organicmatterpartitioning,etc.(seeSection4.4aboveonEXPORTSDataProductsandTable3intheEXPORTSSciencePlan).ThesesynthesizedproductsareofcentralimportancetoansweringtheEXPORTSsciencequestionsandtheirconstructionanddisseminationwillbetheresponsibilityoftheProjectOffice.Tothisend,theProjectOfficewillworkwithallPIstocoordinatefieldreportingandmetadatastandards.ThesynthesizeddataproductswillbesubmittedtotheEXPORTSdataarchiveandpublishedinascientificjournalwithinoneyearafterthelastfieldcampaign.AlatersubmissionofdatawillrequiretheconsentofthePLT.BypublishingtheEXPORTdataproductsinatimelymanner,allthepertinentaspectsofthedata(methodsofcollectionandanalysis,QA/QCprocedures,access)willbeprovidedtomaximizeitsusebythelargercommunity.

TheprimaryandsynthesizeddataproductsareessentialforEXPORTSsynthesisandmodelingactivities.Outputfromthesemodelingactivitieswillalsobesubmittedtothe


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centralEXPORTSdataarchive,withthesesubmissionscoordinatedbytheProjectOfficeandotherdatarepositories(SeaBASS,BCO-DMO,PANGEA,etc.).

4.7 PotentialInternationalCollaborationsandPartnerships

TheSDTwaschargedtodesignastudythatleverages,complements,andiscompatiblewithongoingNorthAtlanticandNorthPacificresearchprojectsandfieldobservationsofnationalandinternationalorganizationsworkingintheregion,wherepossible(seeNASA’sChargetotheSDT).Direct,side-by-sideinternationalcollaborationslikethesewouldbeveryusefulinreducingcoststotheU.S.agenciesandthusincreasethechancethattheGoalPlanmaybecomeareality.However,usefulpartnershipswithEXPORTSmayalsobemadewhereapartneringorganizationwouldsampleNPPexportandfatepathwaysandsupportinginformationinanotherregionoftheworld’soceans.Datacollectedbythese“independentpartners”wouldexpandtheparametricrangeofECCstatesusedtodevelopandtestsatellitealgorithmsandnumericalmodelsforansweringtheEXPORTSScienceQuestions.

Table5:SummaryofPotentialInternationalPartnershipsasofOctober2016(thecompletePotentialInternationalPartnershipstableisavailableinSection7.6ofthisdocument)

Project Country Cruise year Region StatusAORA (aka AORA-CSA) EU N/A N/A Funded to 2020APERO France 2019 North Atlantic In PlanningATLANTOS EU N/A N/A FundedATLAS EU N/A multiple cruise location Funded to 2020BioPSis France 2017 BATS / and maybe Arctic FundedBOCATS (OVIDE, GO-SHIP) Spain 2016 NE Atlantic - Spain to South

Greenland Funded

COMICS UK 2017/2018 S. Georgia / Benguela upwelling FundedFLUXES Spain June- July 2017 Eastern margin N.Atlantic Cruises requestedFRAM Germany 2017/18 annually till 2021 Fram Strait FundedIcelandic national programme Iceland Annual Subpolar Atlantic FundedICOS/Argo Pilot study Germany N/A Subpolar N Atlantic SubmittedIndian Ocean Expedition Australia 2018/2019 Southeast Indian Ocean (110E) SubmittedLine P Canada N/A Ongoing Line P incl EXPORTS

site in the NE PacficOngoing

MesoPelagi Cosms Germany N/A Fjords SubmittedNational German project Germany N/A Subpolar N Atlantic? In PlanningNIWA New Zealand 2017-2020 SH STW and SAZ OngoingOcean Frontier Institute Canada N/A NW Atlantic and Arctic Gateway In planningPAP sustained observatory UK Annual PAP site 49N,16.5W (NE Atlantic) FundedSeacycler Canada Ongoing Labrador Sea OngoingSeaPump Germany 2017 Antarctic, Fram Strait, Cape

Blanc, PAP & Spitzbergen.Ongoing

SFB754 Germany 2016-2019 Eastern subtropical south Pacific FundedShipline Liverpool-Halifax Germany several times each year TransAtlantic crossing OngoingSponGES EU N/A N/A Funded to 2020TBD: Japanese Program Japan 2020 NE subarctic Pacific In planning



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TheSDTidentifiedmultipleopportunitiesforinternationalpartneringthatspanthecontinuumfromdirect,side-by-sidecollaborationinEXPORTSfieldcampaigncruisestoindependentcomprehensiveEXPORTS-typefieldcampaignsatothertimesoftheyearorindiverselocationsthatincreasethenumberofECCstatessampled.AsummaryofthesepotentialpartnershipsislistedinTable5(thecompletetableisprovidedinPotentialInternationalPartnershipsinthesupplementarysectionofthisdocument;Section7.6).Informationoninternationalpartnershipswasrequestedaspartofthecommentssolicitedfromthecommunity(seeDraftImplementationPlanComments)andtheSTDdidconductitsownstudyofthepotentialpartnerships.Nevertheless,theSDTwouldnotbesurprisedifpromisingpartnershipopportunitiesweremissed.Overall,theSDTencounteredauniformlyhighdegreeofenthusiasmforpotentialinternationalcollaborationswiththeEXPORTSfieldprogram.AsevidencedinTable5,manypossiblecollaborativeprojectswerediscovered,someofwhicharealreadyfundedwhileothersthatareinplanningphases.TheSDTthoughtthatthelikelihoodofsubstantivedirectpartneringwiththeGoalPlanwouldbegreaterfortheNortheastPacificcruisesthanfortheNorthAtlanticbecauseofthelongerleadtimeforplanningtheStationPcruises(Figure2).Inparticular,partneringwithongoingCanadianprogramsandworkingtoassistwithnewJapaneseplanningforsamplingintheNortheastPacificseemsverypromising.OpportunitiesareavailableintheNorthAtlantic,butitisunclearwhethertheycouldhappensimultaneouslywiththeplannedEXPORTSfieldwork.Table5alsoillustratesmanyexcellentopportunitiesforindependentprojectsthatwillincreasethenumberofECCstates.FurtherdetailsareavailableinthecompletePotentialInternationalPartnershipstable(Section7.6).Therearesubstantialchallengesandsomerisksassociatedwitharelianceoninternationalpartnerships.Withsimultaneouscollaborations,foreignshipsandsciencegroupscouldconceivablycovermanyoftheEXPORTSkeymeasurements.Itiscriticalthenthatlogisticsareworkedoutforsamplesharingandmeasurement/instrumentintercomparisonssothathighqualityobservationsareobtained.Regardlessofwhethertheinternationalcollaborationsareconductedside-by-sidewithEXPORTSorindependentlyinanotheroceanbasin,resourcesshouldbeformallyallocatedtoensurethesuccessoftheseinternationalpartnerships(e.g.exchangeofscientists,intercalibrationcosts).ThiswillhelpensurethatthedatacollectedwillenabletheextrapolationoftheEXPORTSdataproductstoglobalspatialscalesandtofuturetimes.Lastly,existinginternationalscientificorganizations,suchasIntegratedMarineBiogeochemistryandEcosystemResearch(IMBER),ScientificCommitteeonOceanicResearch(SCOR),InternationalCouncilfortheExplorationoftheSea(ICES),NorthPacificMarineScienceOrganization(PICES)andothersshouldbeengagedinthedevelopmentofrobustinternationalcollaborationswithEXPORTS.

5.0 EstimatingProjectCostsThegoaloftheEXPORTSImplementationPlanistodeviseanefficientstrategytoimplementtheEXPORTSSciencePlanasproposed,vettedandapproved.Theprevioussection(Section4.0)laysouttheSDT’ssuggestionsforGoalPlanexecution(alongwiththesupportingsupplementarymaterials).Here,arobustcostestimatefortheGoalPlan(“Plan






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A”,thissection)andpotentialdescopedplans(“PlansB-G”,nextsection)ispresentedalongwithsuggestionsofthepotentialforscientificsuccessofthevariousdescopingoptions.

5.1 CostingtheGoalPlan

ThereweremanyassumptionsmadeincostingtheGoalPlan.AsdescribedinSection4.1,theGoalPlanwouldbeconductedintwophases,makingita7-yearprogram(Fig.2).Thefirstfive-yearphaseisaimedatansweringScienceQuestions1and2,andallfieldexpensesarecontainedinPhase1.Atotalof23projectswereestimatedtobeneededtoconductPhase1(Table3),eachcostedatanaverageof$300Kperyearduringthetwofieldyears,$200Kperprojectperyearduringtheanalysisyears,and$50Kforcapitalequipmentperproject.ShiptimeisbudgetedatexpecteddayratesforshipsintheGlobalclass(Processship)andOceanclass(Surveyshipandautonomousplatformdeployments/recovery/CTDops).ShiptimerequirementsareincludedintheNotionalCruisePlan(seeSection7.3).Atotalof338seadaysareneededtoachievetheGoalPlan.Costestimatesforthehydrographicgroupweremadebaseduponat-sealaborduringthecruiseyearsforrunningtheCTDandunderwaysamplingsystemsonboththesurveyandprocessshipsandthetowedprofilerontheSurveyShip(seePlatformRequirements;Section7.4).Thisincludesat-seaanalyses(fluorometricchlorophylls,dissolvedoxygen,etc.)andcollectionofsamplestobeanalyzedonshore(nutrients,particulateorganicmatter(POM),DOM,HPLCpigments,etc.),aswellassamplestobearchivedforfutureanalyses.BasedupontheNotionalCruisePlan,weassumethat1,000sampleswillneedtobecollectedbybothshipspercruise,withanaverageon-shoreanalysiscostof$300persample.Wehaveassumedthatnotalldepthswillbesampledandnotallsampleswillbeanalyzed,withsomearchivedforfutureanalysis(e.g.,genomicprofiling,geochemistry,etc.).ItisassumedthattheMultipleOpeningClosingNetandEnvironmentalSensingSystem(orsimilar)andthetowedprofilersystemwillbeincludedintheUNOLSshipsupportfortheprogram(seePlatformRequirements;Section7.4).AutonomousplatformswillbepurchasedfollowingtheplanlaidoutinSection4.3andareconsideredexpendable.EstimatesoftheoperationscostsrequiredtoproduceusefuldataweremadebaseduponpastexperiencesoftheSDTmembers.Logisticscostsareforshipping/travelusingacentralNASA-likecontractor,anddatamanagementandprojectofficecostsareincluded.A10%contingencyontheintegratedfieldworkexpensesisincludedandwillbeheldbytheagency.FollowingthephasingsuggestedinSection4.1,Phase2willbe3yearsindurationandwillstartinYear4oftheoverallprogram(Figures2and5).TheGoalPlanassumesthattherewillbe8Phase2projects(Table3),eachcostedat$200Kperyear.ThetotalcostfortheGoalPlanis$71.5Mfor7years.ThespreadsheetillustratingthecalculationsisprovidedintheSciencePlanBudgetdocument(seetab“A”fortheGoalPlan).Nearlyone-halfoftheGoalPlancosts(49%)gotoPI-ledscienceprojects(Figure6).Beyondthat,18%goestowardshipsupport,11%towardautonomousplatformpurchasesandoperations(AUVs),9%forcontingencies(10%ofthePhase1costs),7%forprojectofficeanddatamanagementand6%forthehydrographicgroupandsampleanalyses.



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Figure6–BreakdownbycategoryfortheGoalPlancostestimate(PlanAintheSciencePlanBudgetdocument).

TheSDTacknowledgesthattheGoalPlancostscouldbereducedbyplanningfewerprojectsorcollectingfewersamples.HoweverthechargetotheSDTwastocreatearobustcostestimatefortheGoalPlan.TheprocessemployedbytheSDTislikelytohaveresultedinanestimatethatisrobusttominoromissions.Furthermore,partnershipsfromU.S.researchagenciesorinternationalparticipantswould,inprinciple,shareinthecostsofconductingtheGoalPlan.

5.2 DescopingOptions

Descopingoptionsarerequiredtohelpunderstandthetradeoffsbetweenprojectinvestment,riskstosuccess,andscientificandagencyrewards.TheSDTconsideredmanywaystoparedowntheGoalPlan,includingthenumberofprojects,cruises,AUVs,ships,basinsandcombinationsthereof.ThedescopingoptionspresentedbelowwerecostedsimilarlytotheGoalPlanandtakingintoaccountthefractionaldecreasesineachcategoryfromtheGoalPlan.DetailsareprovidedintheSciencePlanBudget(Section7.4).

Table6–EXPORTSGoalPlanandDescopingOptionCosting

Cruises Basins Ships ProjectsinPhases1&2

Years SeaDays

TotalCost

A:GoalPlan 4 2 2 23/8 7 388 $72M

B:Goal“Lite” 4 2 2 20/6 7 388 $62M

C:FullPlanbut1ship

4 2 1 18/8 7 196 $57M

D:3cruise,1basin,2ships

3 1 2 23/8 7 263 $58M

E:2cruise,1basin,2ships

2 1 2 23/0 5 164 $39M

F:2cruise,1basin,1ship

2 1 1 18/0 5 95 $30M

G:1cruise,1basin,1ship

1 1 1 18/0 4 50 $22M

AsummaryofthedescopingoptionsisgiveninTable6,providingthenumberofcruises,basinssampled,ships,projects,yearsandseadays,theexistenceofPhase2,andthetotalprojectcosts.AlthoughnotdetailedinTable6,theautonomoussamplingeffortsscalebackinproportionwithotheractivities,withthelarge-scalefloatarraygiventoppriority.



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CapacitytoanswerEXPORTSsciencequestionsdiminishesastheprojectmovesfromtheGoalPlan(PlanAinTable6)tothe1ship/1cruisedescopingoption(PlanG).Inparticular,PlansE,FandGwillnothavePhase2projectsandhencewillnotanswerSQ3.ThedescopingoptionslyingbetweenPlansAandGprovidedifferentcapabilitiesandconstraints,andpresentvaryingrisksforaccountingfortheexportpathwaysandNPPfates,andultimatelyachievingoverallprogramsuccess.

Figure7–Illustrationofthetradeoffsbetween“MeasurementUncertainty”(y-axis)and“PredictionUncertainty”(x-axis).Thedashedlinesshowthe“currentstateoftheart”(blue),theas-yet-unachievedsimultaneous“determinationofallexportpathways”(orange)andtheregionintheupper-rightcornerofthetradespacethatoptimizestheconstructionof“globallyapplicablemodels”(green).

TheoverallEXPORTSapproachistodevelopandvalidateoceancarboncyclemodelsfromobservationsmadeoverarangeofECCstates.ThismeansthatEXPORTSmustcompletelyobservethefundamentalNPPexportandfatepathways,aswellascollectthesupportingdatathatarerequiredtodevelopadvancedsatellitealgorithmsandnumericalmodelsvalidovertheglobalrangeofECCstates(fromboththeplannedfieldworkandtheminingofpreviousresults).Thus,therearetwovariablesthatmustbeconsideredwhenevaluatingthetradeoffsamongthedescopingoptionsfromtheGoalPlan.Oneaxis(theverticalaxisinFigure7)relateshowwellthefundamentalNPPexportandfatepathwayscanberesolvedbyeachoption.Wetermthis“MeasurementUncertainty”asitmeasurestheprobabilitythatagivenfieldcampaignwillbeabletomeasurealloftheexportpathways.Theotheraxis(thehorizontalaxisinFigure7)illustrateshowwelltheentiresetoffieldcampaignscanobserveawideenoughrangeofECCstatestoallowgloballyapplicablesatellite

i.e.,Predic*onuncertainty

globalapplicability

currentstateoftheart

overallsciencereturnlow high

determineallexportpathways

Probabilityofobservingfulldynamicrangeofstatesneededtodevelopgloballyapplicablemodels

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uan*

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ays

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algorithmsandnumericalmodelstobedevelopedandtested.Thissecondvariablecanbethoughtofasthe“PredictionUncertainty”.Thelowestrisk–thatis,thehighestsciencereturns–willoccurintheupperrightcornerofthetradeoffspaceillustratedinFigure7.Inthatregionofthetradespace,PredictionUncertaintyislowest(i.e.,manyECCstatesaresampled)andMeasurementUncertaintyislowest(i.e.,allpathwaysarewellsample).Elsewhereinthetradeoffspace,themeasurementsmayonlypartiallyconstraintheECCstate(lowerontheverticalaxis)ormayprovideaninsufficientnumberofECCstates(leftonthehorizontalaxis).Importantly,Figure7illustratesthe“currentstateoftheart”(bluehorizontaldashedline),theas-yet-unachievedsimultaneous“determinationofallexportpathways”(orangehorizontaldashedline)andthespacethatoptimizestheconstructionof“globallyapplicablemodels”(greendiagonaldashedline).Todate,nofieldprogramhassimultaneouslymeasuredallfiveoftheexportpathwaysandtheirtransformationsfromtheeuphoticzonethroughthetwilightzonethatareneededtoanswertheEXPORTSsciencequestions.Hencethe“currentstateoftheart”lineliesfarbelowthe“determineallexportpathways”line.Bymeasuringalloftheexportpathwaysinacomprehensivemanner,EXPORTShasitsbestopportunitytoadvancenewgroundinhowweunderstandandmodelglobaloceanNPPexportandfate.

Figure8–IllustrationofwheretheGoalPlanandthesixdescopeoptionsfromTable6lieinthetradespacebetween“MeasurementUncertainty”and“PredictionUncertainty”.

TheGoalPlanandthesixdescopingplansfromTable6areplottedinthetradespaceinFigure8,withlocationsbasedupontheSDT’scollectivejudgment.Bydesign,theGoalPlan

determineallexportpathways

A:23/8projects,4cruises,388days,$72Mw/phase2

E:23/0projects,2cruises,164days,$39M(nophase2)

G:18/0pro,1ship,1cruises,50days,$22M(nophase2)

D:23/8projects,3cruises,263days,$58Mw/phase2

C:18/8pro,1ship,4cruises,196days,$57Mw/phase2

B:20/6projects,4cruises,388days,$62Mw/phase2

F:18/0pro,1ship,2cruises,95days,$30M(nophase2)

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inagiven

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Ion

i.e.,Measuremen

tuncertainty

i.e.,PredicIonuncertainty

Probabilityofobservingfulldynamicrangeofstatesneededtodevelopgloballyapplicablemodels

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(PlanA)liesintheupperrightcornerandwillclearlydothebestjobamongthevariousoptions.TheGoalPlan“lite”option(PlanB)willhavefewerprojectsandhencewillincreasemeasurementandpredictionuncertaintylevels.Thetwo-shipplanswiththesamenumberofprojectsastheGoalPlanbutreducednumberofcruises/basins(PlansD&E)willachievelowmeasurementuncertaintybutwillnotprovidethesamenumberofECCstatesandthuswillhavehigherpredictionuncertainties.Thesingleshipoptions(PlansC,F&G)willnotbeabletosamplealloftheexportpathwaysastherearesimplynotenoughberthsandwiretimeavailable.However,allthreesingle-shipdescopingoptionswillprovidestate-of-the-artobservationsoverarangeofpredictionuncertaintylevels.

SimilaroutcomeslikelyliealongthediagonallineinFigure8,suggestingbroadglobalapplicability.Inparticular,therearesuggestionsofsimilarsuccessprobabilityforPlansB(GoalPlan“lite”),D(2ships,3cruisesand1basin)andC(1ship,4cruisesand2basins).Whileinternationalpartneringanddataminingeffortswillincreasethenumberofstatessampled,theinherentrisksaregreaterandmustbecarefullymanaged(similarsamplingprotocols,standards,etc.)toensurethatthemeasurementsarecompatible.

5.3 Community/SDTConsensusonDescopingOptions

ThecommunitycommentsonthedraftplanprovidedmanygoodinsightsforwhatanacceptableminimumwouldbeforEXPORTS(seeDraftImplementationPlanComments).NineteenrespondentssaidthatonlytheGoalPlan(PlanA)wouldadequatelyanswertheEXPORTSsciencequestions.Sixteensaidthatthe3cruise,2shipoption(PlanD)wouldbeadequatewhile10reviewersthoughtthattheGoalPlan“lite”version(PlanB)wouldwork.Otherproposeddescopingoptionshadfewerpositivecomments.TheSDTrecognizesthatthisdeterminationofpreferencefromthewrittencommentsisinexactatbest.Howeverthecommunitypreferencesappearstobefortwoshipoptionsthatwoulddetermineallexportpathways(atleastnearthehorizontaldashedorangelineinFigure8)oversingleshipoptions(nearthehorizontaldashedlightbluelineinFigure8).SeveralparticipantscommentedthatthedevelopmentofrobustinternationalpartnershipswouldhelpexpandthenumberofECCstatesthatwouldbeavailable.ThissuggeststhatitismoreimportanttomaketheinvestmentinasamplingprogramthatsamplesalloftheNPPexportandfatepathways,ratherthanimplementationsthatsampleimperfectlyoverawiderangeofECCstates.ItshouldalsobementionedthatnorespondentsstatedthattheGoalPlanwouldbeinadequate.ItwasstronglyrecommendedbythecommunitythatthePhase2synthesisactivitiesshouldnotbeseparatedfromthePhase1fieldworkand,further,thatthesetwophasesshouldbeconductedsimultaneouslyifatallpossible.Baseduponthecommunitycommentsanditsownself-study,theSDTconcludesthattheGoalPlanistheonlyplanthatwouldanswertheEXPORTSsciencequestionswithahighdegreeofcertainty.Otherdescopingoptions,suchastheGoalPlan“lite”(PlanB)andthe3cruise,2shipoption(PlanD),wouldbeadequateifnecessary.TheotheroptionswouldnotsampleadequatelyalloftheNPPexportandfatepathwaysorenoughECCstaterealizationstoadequatelyanswertheEXPORTSsciencequestions.

TheSDTstronglyrecommendsthatanydescopingoptionforEXPORTSmust1)quantifyallofNPPexportandfatepathwaysand2)includePhase2synthesisandmodelingactivitiesthroughout.AnyfieldcampaignprogramwithoutthesetwocomponentswouldnotbeEXPORTS.


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6.0 ChallengesgoingforwardWhileindividualcomponentsoftheexportandfateofglobalNPPhavebeenaddressedinthepast,onlythroughacomprehensive,highlycoordinatedprogramsuchasEXPORTSwillwebeabletoquantifythekeycarbonexchangeandexportpathwaysandaddresstheconsiderableuncertaintiesthatexisttodate.Reliablemonitoringofratesofcontemporaryoceancarboncyclingandpredictionoffuturechangesdependsupondatalikethosesuggestedheretobuildandvalidatenumericalmodelsandsatellitealgorithms.Inaddition,state-of-the-arttechnologiesnowatthecommunity’sdisposalhaveneverbeforebeenemployedinsuchacoordinatedfashiontoanswercoupledoceanecosystem/carboncyclequestions.

Therearechallengesthatacomprehensive,high-technology,andmulti-partnerfieldprogramsuchasEXPORTSpresents.Strikingabalanceamongdiscovery,innovation,broadparticipation,agencymission,andcostwillbecomplicated.Astrongpartnershipbetweenthefundingagencies,ProjectLeadershipTeam,andparticipatingresearcherswillneedtobeinplacetoachievethebestpossibleoutcomeforallparties.InordertoaccomplishthegoalsofEXPORTS(especiallythoserelevanttoNASA),wemustalsoensurethatPhase2projectsshouldbeimplementedsothatSQ3questionsareanswered.NASAhasrecentlyselectedpre-EXPORTSPIsunderROSES2015toconductdataminingactivitiesandOSSEdevelopment,whichwillcertainlyimprovetheplanssuggestedhere.Furthermore,thepathforwardmustalsoincludeextensivedataminingofpreviousresultstoreducetherisksinsamplingtoofewECCstates.

Theestablishmentofpartnerships,withintheU.S.andbeyond,wouldgreatlyassistintheimplementationofahighlyinterdisciplinary,comprehensivefield,modelingandsynthesisprogramlikeEXPORTS.Internationalpartnershipsandtheirchallengeshavebeendiscussedpreviously(Section4.7).ThereareclearpartnershipswithU.S.nationalagenciesthatwillbenefitboththeNASAEXPORTSprogramandreciprocallybenefitpartneragenciesthroughthecomprehensivebiological,chemical,andphysicalframeworkthatEXPORTSprovides.OnesuchexampleemanatedfromanNSF-fundedworkshoponthe“BiologyoftheBiologicalPump”inFebruary2016.Thegoalofthisworkshopwastoprioritizefutureresearchareasthatarelikelytomakesignificantadvancesinourunderstandingofthebiologicalprocessesregulatingorganicmatterexportanditsconsumptionintheoceans.Thebroadresearchthemesthatresultedfromthisworkshop(foodwebregulationofexport,thedissolved-particulatecontinuum,variabilityinspaceandtime)aredirectlyrelevanttothegoalsofEXPORTS(seehttp://www.us-ocb.org/publications/BioPump-Final.pdf).Otherpotentialsynergiesinclude,forexample,collaborationswithNOAA’sGalwayAgreementactivitiesorNOAAclimateofficeinvestmentsinbiogeochemicalARGOfloatdeployments.

Onemajorchallengeforpartnershipsismatchingtimelinesfordirectcollaborationinfieldcampaigns.Thischallengethisincludesnotonlyprojectfunding,butalsoshipschedulingandpersonnelparticipationonothervessels.TheEXPORTStimeline(Figures2and5)isaggressiveandwillrequireanintensiveeffortforcoordinationofmethodologies,sensorcalibrationandcrosscalibration,sampling,andallaspectsofdatamanagementfromdatabasestructuretotimingfordatasharing.Sufficientpersonpowerandresourceswill

http://www.us-ocb.org/publications/BioPump-Final.pdf

http://www.us-ocb.org/publications/BioPump-Final.pdf

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needtobededicatedtointernationalcoordinationandPIdataworkshopstofullytakeadvantageofsuchpartnerships.

7.0 SupplementalMaterials

7.1 EXPORTSSDTMembership

TheEXPORTSScienceDefinitionTeam(SDT)wascompetedtocreateanImplementationPlantoexecutetheEXPORTSSciencePlan.DetailsconcerningtheformationoftheSDTanditschargeareavailableathttp://cce.nasa.gov/obb/exports/team.html.

TheSDTmembersareDavidSiegel(Lead;UCSB),BarneyBalch(Bigelow),MikeBehrenfeld(OSU),KenBuesseler(WHOI),CraigCarlson(UCSB),NicolasCassar(Duke),IvonaCetinic(NASAGSFC),ScottDoney(WHOI),MegEstapa(Skidmore),BethanyJenkins(URI),KenJohnson(MBARI),CraigLee(UWAPL),AdrianMartin(SOC),SusanneMenden-Deuer(URI),David(Roo)Nicholson(WHOI),UtaPassow(UCSB),MaryJanePerry(UMaine),NatassaRomanou(NASAGISS),DeborahSteinberg(VIMS),AndyThompson(CalTech)&JeremyWerdell(NASAGSFC).ExofficioSDTmembersareQuincyAllison(NASAESPO),PaulaBontempi(NASAHQ),PeterGriffith(NASAGSFC),LauraLorenzoni(NASAHQ),andMikeSieracki(NSF).Contactinformationisavailableathttp://cce.nasa.gov/obb/exports/team.html.

7.2 CompleteMeasurementTable

TheCompleteMeasurementTablegroupsthemeasurementsneededtoanswertheEXPORTSsciencequestionsandsubquestions.Theyaregroupedbyprogramelement(columnB),withshorthandfortheplatform,method,scienceneedsandmeasurementtypesandpurpose(columnsC,D,E,FandG).CommentsoneachentrybyrowareprovidedinanaccompanyingMeasurementFootnoteDocument.ThemeasurementsarefurthercharacterizedregardingwhichofthefirsttwoScienceQuestionsandsub-questionseachwouldaddress(columnHandI).DistributionofthesemeasurementsamongtheSurveyShip,ProcessShip,andAutonomousplatformcruises(pre/postprocesscruises)isalsosuggested(columnsJ-P).Inmakingthesesuggestions,aprioritywasassignedfortheneedtomakeeachmeasurementonthedifferentplatforms,usingarankingof1for“essential”foraddressingthesciencequestionsnotedand2for“useful”.Finally,themeasurementsaregroupedbyEXPORTSdataproducts(1e-primary,and2e-secondary)followingtheoriginalEXPORTSSciencePlan(Table3;columnsQ&R).TheCompleteMeasurementTableisonewaytoassesstherequiredmeasurementsandneedsacrossplatformsandcruisesandwasusedinthisdocumenttodeterminecosts,cruiseplanning,andscoping/descopingoptions.Itshouldnotbeseenasafinallistofcruiseactivitiesorprojects.CompleteMeasurementTableURL:http://cce.nasa.gov/obb/exports/documents/Complete_Measurement_Table.xlsx








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MeasurementFootnoteURL:http://cce.nasa.gov/obb/exports/documents/Complete_Measurement_Table_Footnotes.pdf

7.3 NotionalCruisePlan

TheNotionalCruisePlanenablespercruiseestimatesofactivitiesforcostingtheGoalPlan.Activitiesconsideredincludethenumberofseadaysrequired(27onstation),daysneededtomakeasingleecosystem/carboncyclingstateassessment(8days),berthsavailabletoPhase1projectsandthehydrographicandtowedprofilergroups(35processand24surveyship),CTDcasts(~80process&~200survey),analyticalsamplestoberunonshore(~1000frombothships),towedprofilersurveyduration(~12daystotal),MOCNESScasts(12processship),andmore.TheGoalPlanNotionalCruisePlanwasconstructedin2hourincrementsandthevariousactivitiesrequiredtomeasuretheexportpathwaysandNPPfateswereplacedonthismatrixforbothships.Carewastakentoaccountforanyinterdependenciesamongrequiredmeasurements(detailedintheCompleteMeasurementTable).

GoalPlannotionalcruisescheduleURL:http://cce.nasa.gov/obb/exports/documents/Notional_Cruise_Plan.xlsx

7.4 Platform/SamplingRequirements

ThePlatformRequirementsdocumentdescribesdetailsforthemeasurementstobemadeandthesamplingconductedintheEXPORTSGoalPlanimplementation.

PlatformrequirementsURL:http://cce.nasa.gov/obb/exports/documents/Platform_Requirements.pdf

7.5 GoalPlanandDescopeOptionsCosting

SciencePlanBudgetswereestimatedfortheEXPORTSGoalPlan(PlanAinthetable),asdiscussedinSection5.1,andforthevariousdescopingoptionsoutlinedinSection5.2(PlansBthroughGinthespreadsheet).Asummaryisalsoincludedtohelpcomparethevariousoptions.Foreachscenario,thesetablesincludenumbersofinstruments(floats,gliders,traps),shipdaysfortwotypesofships-thelargerProcessShip(globalclass)andthesmallerSurveyShip(oceanclass),whichisalsousedfordeploymentofautonomousassetspriortothefirstprocesscruise(minimalCTDopsexpected).A$100Kallowancehasbeenallocatedforeachbasintosupportpotentialcoastalrecoveriesofmobileautonomousassetsattheendofeachfieldprogram.Alsoincludedistheestimatednumberofmulti-PIprojectsthatmightbeincludedinPhase1andPhase2,whichisbasedupontheMeasurementTable(notalloptionshavebothphases)andincludesabudgetforsmallamountsof“PIequipment”(e.g.,camerasystems,nets,filtrationapparatus).Thehydrographygroupbudgetincludescostsforsamplecollectionandon-shoreanalyses(suchasHPLCpigments,dissolvedorganiccarbon,nutrients,particulateorganiccarbonandnitrogen,etc.).Thehydrographygroupbudgetalsoincludessalariesforon-board











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samplecollectionandprocessing,CTDoperations,andoperationofinstrumentationonthetowedprofiler.Logisticscostsassumeshipping/travelarrangedthroughacentralNASA-likecontractor.Datamanagementandprojectofficecostsarebrokendownforeachscenarioandscaletothenumberofprojectsandcruises.Descopingoptionsincludeareducednumberofsamples,basins,shipsandprojects,aswellasdeletionofphase2synthesisandmodelingeffortsasappropriate.

SciencePlanBudgetURL:http://cce.nasa.gov/obb/exports/documents/Goal_Plan_Descope_Budgets.xlsx

7.6 Knowninternationalopportunitiesforpartnerships

ThetableofPotentialInternationalPartnershipspresentsaninformal,non-exhaustivelist,introducingsomeinternationalprograms,links,andcontactsrepresentingEUornationalprograms.Someoftheseprogramsarefunded,someareawaitingfundingdecisions,andothersareinearlyplanningstages.InputstothetablehavecomefromconversationsamongSDTmembersandtheirinternationalcolleagues.PotentialinternationalpartnershiptableURL:http://cce.nasa.gov/obb/exports/documents/International_Partnerships.xlsx

7.7 ReviewoftheDraftImplementationPlan

ThedraftEXPORTSImplementationPlanwasreleasedforpubliccommentbytheEXPORTSScienceDefinitionTeam(SDT)onJuly18,2016.BoththedraftplanandsupportingdocumentationweredistributedthroughtheNASAOceanBiologyandBiogeochemistrywebpage(http://cce.nasa.gov/ocean_biology_biogeochemistry/exports).ThereviewperiodwasopenuntilSeptember6,2016.Atotalof48commentsweresubmittedtoobb_comments@cce.nasa.govforconsiderationbytheSDT.Reviewersrangedfromgraduatestudentstoemeritiprofessors.Morethanone-halfoftherespondentsweregraduatestudents,postdocs,andearlycareerscientists.Thereviewerswerenottoldthattheircommentswouldbemadepublic.Hence,theSDTdecidedthatneithertheidentityoftherespondersnortheircompletecommentswouldbemadepublic.TheSDTrevisedthedraftplanbaseduponthecommunitycomments.Inparticular,commentswereusefulfordecidingwhichdescopeoptionswouldworkandwhichoneswouldnot.Moredetailsonthecommentsandhowtheywereusedinrevisingtheinitialdraftareavailableat:





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